Politics

The Unsettling Warning in France’s Election

Published

2 years ago

April 27, 2022

The Unsettling Warning in France’s Election

You must know at the very least two essential details in regards to the French presidential election, whose ultimate spherical was held final Sunday.

The primary is that Marine Le Pen, the far-right candidate recognized for her heat relationship with Vladimir Putin and her hostility towards the European Union and immigrants, misplaced the election — however with one of the best exhibiting that her get together has ever had, carrying 41.5 % of the second-round vote.

The second is that Emmanuel Macron, the incumbent president from the center-right En Marche get together, gained the election — however with the bottom share of registered voters of any candidate since 1969, due to traditionally low turnout and excessive numbers of votes that have been solid clean or spoiled in a present of protest.

Of these two details, the primary has garnered essentially the most consideration. However the second could also be extra necessary.

Vote, or hostage negotiation?

Within the first spherical of the presidential election, Macron got here in first, however with nowhere near a majority. He bought barely greater than 1 / 4 of the entire votes, with 27.85 %. Le Pen got here subsequent with 23.15 %, and the leftist candidate, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, bought 21.95 %. The remainder of the votes have been divided between smaller events.

That’s truly fairly frequent: Immediately, in lots of mature democracies, it’s unusual for any get together or ideological faction to get greater than a few third of the votes. Within the German federal election final 12 months, the center-left get together got here first, however with solely 25.7 % of the vote — strikingly just like the numbers for Macron within the first spherical. In multiparty parliamentary methods, that ends in coalition governments during which two or extra events work collectively — take Germany, once more, the place a three-party coalition now governs.

However in direct presidential methods, the winner takes all. And for a lot of voters, that implies that elections are much less a matter of who they need to assist than of who they most need to oppose.

So when Le Pen made the second spherical runoff of the French election, the competition took on the tenor of a hostage negotiation. Macron argued that Le Pen was an existential risk to France, and known as for all different candidates’ supporters to unite behind him with the intention to forestall her from profitable the presidency. Mélenchon, the leftist candidate, made an analogous plea to his supporters. “We all know who we’ll by no means vote for,” he stated on April 10. “We should not give a single vote for Madame Le Pen.”

In the long run, sufficient voters aligned behind Macron to maintain the far proper out of the presidency. And it appears that evidently many heeded the calls to carry their noses and vote for Macron, regardless of their aversion to him, with the intention to shield the nation from the far proper: Based on one ballot, about 45 % of those that voted for him did so solely to oppose Le Pen.

However the identical ballot discovered that the other was additionally true: About 45 % of Le Pen voters have been extra fascinated with opposing Macron than in supporting the far proper. Different knowledge bears that out: The abroad French territories Martinique and Guadeloupe supported Mélenchon within the first spherical, however then gave a majority to Le Pen within the second.

Others withdrew fully. Abstentions and clean ballots hit document highs on this election — a notable growth in France, the place turnout has traditionally been round 80 %.

A warning from historical past

Specialists who examine France’s historical past of revolutions and democratic collapse see indicators of hazard in a system that pushes a large spectrum of voters right into a binary selection between what some see because the lesser of two evils.

So how do you inform the distinction between regular political anger that may work itself out by means of a sequence of elections with out resulting in critical instability, and one thing harmful sufficient to require structural change to the system itself?

“That’s the query of French historical past, proper?” Terrence Peterson, a political historian at Florida Worldwide College, informed me. “Historians have been asking that query about France for a very long time, given its historical past of repeated revolutions.”

He noticed specific trigger for concern within the rising ranges of abstentions. “When voters categorical that they really feel disenfranchised, if a majority of them do, then that’s a transparent signal” of significant hassle, he stated.

Some in France have begun to name for an overhaul of the Structure to make the system extra consultant. Mélenchon has known as for a brand new Structure to be drafted by way of a folks’s constituent meeting. In an editorial final week within the French newspaper Le Monde, Frederic Sawicki, a political scientist at Pantheon-Sorbonne College, argued that the dearth of proportional illustration had introduced the far proper “to the gates of energy” in France.

Camille Robcis, a Columbia College historian who research Twentieth-century French politics and establishments, stated that she was not stunned to listen to such calls. “You could have a form of disconnect between the representatives and the favored vote, the citizens,” she stated. “The result’s that these disenchanted, disenfranchised voters are shifting to the extremes.”

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Politics

Video: Biden Cautions Israel on Striking Iranian Oil Fields

Published

2 hours ago

October 4, 2024

Press Room

Video: Biden Cautions Israel on Striking Iranian Oil Fields

new video loaded: Biden Cautions Israel on Striking Iranian Oil Fields

transcript

Biden Cautions Israel on Striking Iranian Oil Fields

President Biden said Israel should consider alternative ways of retaliating against Iran, a day after he said the United States was “in discussion” about the possibility of Israel striking Iran’s oil fields.

: “The Israelis have not concluded how they’re — what they’re going to do in terms of a strike. That’s under discussion. I think there are — if I were in their shoes, I’d be thinking about other alternatives than striking oil fields.” Reporter: “At this point, you still haven’t spoken to Netanyahu. Is it fair to say that you have little personal influence over what he decides to do?” “No, look, our teams are in contact 12 hours a day. They’re constantly in contact. I’ve already had my presidential daily brief. We’ve already had interface between our military, our diplomats. It’s in constant contact. They are trying to figure out — it’s the high holidays as well — they’re not going to make a decision immediately. And so we’re going to wait to see when they want to talk. The Israelis have every right to respond to the vicious attacks on them, not just from the Iranians, but from everyone from Hezbollah to Houthis — anyway. But the fact is that they have to be very much more careful about dealing with civilian casualties.” Reporter: “So how should they respond? You expressed concerns about attacks on Iranian oil facilities. How should they respond?” “That’s between me and them.” Last night you said that there’s still a lot to do to avoid an all out war in the Middle East. Firstly, aren’t we pretty close to that definition already. And secondly, what can you really do to stop that happening. There’s a lot we are doing. The main thing we can do is try to rally the rest of the world and our allies into participating the French are and in Lebanon and other places to tamp this down. But when you have proxies as irrational as Hezbollah and the Houthis, and it’s a hard thing to determine. Did you have any worries that Netanyahu may be trying to influence the election. And that’s why he has not agreed to a diplomatic solution. No administration has helped Israel more than I have. None none. And I think Bibi should remember that. And whether he’s trying to influence the election, I don’t know. But I’m not counting on that. You’ve said many times recently that you want to speak to him, that you plan to plan it and say, I want to. You don’t want to. No, I didn’t say that. You’re making it sound like I’m seeking a speaking. I’m assuming when they make their adjustment, how they’re going to respond, we will then have a discussion.
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Politics

North Carolina Sens. Tills, Budd call for military leader to oversee Hurricane Helene response

Published

3 hours ago

October 4, 2024

Press Room

North Carolina Sens. Tills, Budd call for military leader to oversee Hurricane Helene response

Two Republican senators are calling for the Biden administration to appoint a military leader to lead the recovery effort in the aftermath of Hurricane Helene, as some lawmakers continue to criticize the federal government’s response to the storm.

In a joint statement, Republican Sens. Thom Tillis and Ted Budd, both of North Carolina, issued a joint statement Friday evening concerning the response operations.

BIDEN GETS DEFENSIVE WHEN PUSHED ON WHO’S ‘COMMANDING’ HURRICANE HELENE RESPONSE

Homes are seen in the aftermath of Hurricane Helene in Chimney Rock Village, N.C. (AP Photo/Mike Stewart)

“Our National Guard and local, state, and federal first responders on the ground have been working tirelessly to respond to this disaster with the resources they have,” the statement reads. “Given the unprecedented extent of the devastation and complexity of search and rescue operations, it would be helpful to assign an active-duty military leader who has extensive experience with operations of this magnitude to lead moving forward.”

The Biden administration has come under for a purportedly inadequate response to the devastation left by Helene. As of Friday, the death toll in southeastern states hit hardest by the storm has risen past 224, with more than 100 dead in western North Carolina alone.

BUTTIGIEG’S MESSAGE ON RESTRICTING CIVILIAN DRONES NEAR HURRICANE HELENE DAMAGE PROMPTS OUTCRY, CLARIFICATION

President Biden touring devastation from Hurricane Helene

President Biden and Gov. Roy Cooper, D-N.C., greet first responders after touring areas impacted by Hurricane Helene, at the ariport in Greenville, S.C., Wednesday. (AP Photo/Susan Walsh)

The White House has said that Biden has coordinated the federal response, including approving emergency declarations and deploying 1,000 active-duty soldiers to support search-and-rescue efforts. More than 4,800 personnel from the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and other agencies have been deployed to North Carolina and neighboring states impacted by Helene.

FEMA Director Deanne Criswell was on the ground in North Carolina on Friday, saying the military was delivering food and water to residents from distribution centers.

Debris is strewn on the lake in the aftermath of Hurricane Helene on Wednesday in Lake Lure, N.C. (AP Photo/Mike Stewart)

Additionally, FEMA has shipped over 8.5 million meals, more than 7 million liters of water, 150 generators and over 220,000 tarps to aid response efforts, according to the White House.

As of Friday, the federal government has provided more than $45 million in Individual Assistance to survivors impacted by the storm, White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said, including in the form of one-time $750 payments from FEMA to qualified applicants in Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina and Virginia.

Biden meets with FEMA director in North Carolina

President Biden talks with Deanne Criswell, administrator of the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), as he arrives at Greenville-Spartanburg International Airport in Greer, S.C. (AP Photo/Susan Walsh)

Fox News Digital has reached out to FEMA and the White House.

Fox News Digital’s Chris Pandolfo contributed to this report.

Politics

Shaikin: In yet another Dodgers-Padres NLDS matchup, Steve Garvey can't lose

Published

3 hours ago

October 4, 2024

Press Room

Shaikin: In yet another Dodgers-Padres NLDS matchup, Steve Garvey can't lose

You can buy an autographed baseball in a million places, but you can buy a $75 autographed baseball from a U.S. Senate candidate in one place.

The candidate, of course, is Steve Garvey, who is a household name in California not because of a life spent in politics, but because of a distinguished career for the Dodgers and San Diego Padres.

In his race against Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Burbank), Garvey is a decided underdog. No Republican has won a California Senate seat since 1988.

On Saturday — one month before Election Day — the two teams that Garvey played for open their National League Division Series at Dodger Stadium. That made Friday a good day to check in with Garvey.

Dodgers. Padres. Who’s going to win?

My team is going to win. (He laughed.)

You spent most of your life with the Dodgers. You were a batboy for the Dodgers long before you were their first baseman — an eight-time All-Star, a most valuable player, a World Series champion. How did you end up a major player in Padres history?

Back when the Dodgers made me an offer I could refuse (Garvey was a free agent after the 1982 season), I ended up with (Padres owner and McDonald’s baron) Ray Kroc at his clifftop house. He said: ‘Stevie, I really want you here. I know what you can do on the field, but this community needs somebody that understands the relationship between the people and the town. We haven’t had that.’

He said there was only one problem: ‘I can only pay you in Big Macs and french fries.’

In 1983, your first year in San Diego, the Padres finished at .500. The team had one winning record in its 15 seasons. In 1984, the Padres went to the World Series.

By the second year, we had acquired (closer Goose) Gossage and (third baseman Graig) Nettles. Tony Gwynn was in his third year. We had (shortstop Garry) Templeton and (catcher Terry) Kennedy and (outfielder Kevin) McReynolds, and (second baseman Alan) Wiggins emerged, and a pretty doggone good pitching staff.

‘84 was the year. It was kind of the emergence of Padre history. To have been part of the Dodger organization, from batboy in ‘56 to all those years I was part of that great historical franchise, to be part of it and make a significant contribution, and then to go to San Diego and help them to win for the first time and build their history, I take a lot of pride in that.

Who ever thought I wouldn’t be a Dodger my whole career? And life happens. To have had it work that way was pretty neat.

Your most memorable moment with the Padres must be the walkoff home run in Game 4 of the 1984 NL championship series, which put the team one victory away from the World Series.

Wherever I go, people tell me where they were, which is always a sign of a historical moment.

And your most memorable moment with the Dodgers?

The world championship of ‘81 was really the highlight of my career. If you play a team sport, winning the world championship is the ultimate. We had been frustrated in ‘74, ‘77 and ‘78. And then in ‘81, with the way it transpired with the strike, it seemed to be a team of destiny.

Do you find it curious that your number has been retired by the Padres but not by the Dodgers?

With Don Newcombe and (Fernando Valenzuela) and myself, we were the first class of Legends of Dodger Baseball, which has emerged over the last few years. That is quite an honor, too.

Everybody always asks me: ‘Why isn’t your number retired?’ It’s totally up to the organization. I’m honored to have San Diego and the Padres retire my number. I’ve said it’s probably going to happen in the future. I don’t get up every day and think about it.

Do you get heckled when you campaign in the San Francisco Bay Area?

I don’t. We just came from Northern California. It’s really good natured. Some people will say, ‘Oh, he used to beat us.’ But a lot of people will say, ‘Garvey, we hated the Dodgers, but we’ll vote for you. It’s so bad up here, and we pretty much know you.’

Our theme has been — and my wife, Candace, came up with it — I never took the field for Democrats or Republicans, but for all the fans.

In the best interest of California, do you have a plan to make the Giants great again?

The Giants great again?

That would give the state three great National League teams.

They had that streak (three championships in five years), which was a statement for this millennium in Giant history. Whenever your rivals are good, it’s good for the game and good for both teams.

That’s why the emergence of the Padres is good: everybody has been waiting for a time when they truly are relatively equal with the Dodgers.

On the other side of the San Francisco Bay, a major league team has left Oakland and is planning to leave the state entirely, to move to Las Vegas. Rep. Barbara Lee (D-Oakland) has introduced a bill that would require teams that leave a community to compensate that community, given its support of the team and often its contributions toward a stadium. Would you support that bill?

It’s free will and choice. It’s business. It’s capitalism. If you have a smaller market, you know the challenges and restraints. Ultimately, it is up to ownership to decide their future destiny.

It’s obviously very emotional for her, and for the people of Oakland, and the great players that have come out of there — Dave Stewart and Dusty Baker and all of those guys. But it’s purely a business decision made by ownership. People don’t necessarily like it because they are local, and they have had a great history there. It’s just the nature of business in America.

So you do not see a role for the federal government in franchise relocation?

No. God, lower taxes, smaller government, and the pursuit of happiness. That’s what Ronald Reagan told me.

In sports, your team works together to beat the other team. That is what is happening in Congress now. In Washington, that makes for dysfunction. How might your sports background help you resolve that?

Our theme has been common sense, compassion and consensus. I’ve said, when I am elected U.S. senator from California, I will begin, on the first day, to go to all other 99 senators — go to their office, stick out my hand and say, ‘I’m Steve Garvey, and I want to work with you for the best interests of my state, your state and the country.’ I don’t think too many people are willing to do that, or have.

One last try: Dodgers. Padres. Who are you rooting for in this series?

My team is going to win. (He laughed again.)

Dodging a question? You just might have a future in politics.

I hope so. Six years, at least. One term.