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Opinion: Economists see a 'spectacular' economy. Most voters don't. Can Biden turn that around?

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Opinion: Economists see a 'spectacular' economy. Most voters don't. Can Biden turn that around?

If President Biden’s reelection hinged on the state of the economy, he’d be a good bet, or at least a better one. Instead, it’s voters’ perception of the economy that matters. Which is a big reason the president is struggling as his campaign against presumptive rival Donald Trump gets underway.

Rarely if ever in the modern history of polling has there been such a disconnect between how the economy is faring and how many Americans think it’s doing. That’s partly because of our political polarization. Media coverage of the economy, and of the Republicans who falsely blather about it unchallenged, isn’t helping. We journalists have to do better: Stop letting South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott, for instance, get away unchecked with saying Biden “has destroyed our economy,” as happened on a recent Sunday talk show.

Opinion Columnist

Jackie Calmes

Jackie Calmes brings a critical eye to the national political scene. She has decades of experience covering the White House and Congress.

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But the real onus is on Biden. He must persuade the persuadables among skeptical voters. He’s trying, but he needs help from the Democratic bench, and fast.

Separate news late last week — about two government reports, a stock market record and a national poll — underscored how divorced economic reality and perception have become.

On Thursday came the report that the economy had grown 3.1% in 2023 — faster than the gross domestic product’s average growth in the three pre-pandemic years under Trump. Word followed on Friday that inflation continued to cool in December, to levels last seen before the pandemic. The inflation report stoked investors’ confidence that the Federal Reserve would indeed cut interest rates; the S&P 500 surged for yet another record trading day.

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Economic growth. Back-to-normal inflation. Lower interest rates. A bull market. It all confirms a trend that’s been apparent for months, along with low unemployment, more job creation than under Trump and real wage increases outpacing inflation. Meanwhile, talk of an imminent recession is so 2022.

The superlatives from giddy economists read like the promo blurbs on movie ads: “Just a perfect report” — Mark Zandi, Moody’s Analytics. “Stunning and spectacular” — Diane Swonk, KPMG. “Hard to imagine how things could look better” — UBS’ Brian Rose. “This year has been like Rock ‘Em Sock ‘Em Robots” — Dan North, Allianz Trade Americas.

Responding to Biden’s celebratory statement — “Wages, wealth, and employment are higher now than they were before the pandemic” (read: when Trump was president) — even Trump’s former economic advisor, Larry Kudlow, conceded on his Fox Business show, “I would be bragging about it, too.”

From most Americans, however, all you get is a Bronx cheer.

Amid the good economic reports came poll results from the Pew Research Center and the headline said it all: “Americans More Upbeat on the Economy; Biden’s Job Rating Remains Low.” And “upbeat”? That’s relative. Yes, Pew found a 9-point increase since last April in the percentage of adults who rate the economy as excellent or good — up to a whopping 28%. The increase came among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents. Still, less than half of Democrats, 44%, had positive views of the economy. And just 13% of Republicans said it was excellent or good.

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Many Americans’ views of the economy have long tended to be colored by whether the White House occupant is someone of their favored party. But that bias is more evident than ever in these more polarized times.

It’s become so pronounced among Republicans, two Stanford University economists found in November, that traditional models to gauge consumers’ sentiment using fundamental economic data (inflation, stocks, unemployment, consumption) “have broken down” since 2020. Consumer sentiment should be about 13 points higher on the feel-good scale, economics professor Neale Mahoney and doctoral candidate Ryan Cummings concluded.

With the oft-lying Trump calling the economy “so fragile,” and wishing for “a crash,” many in his party will never be convinced the economy is actually in good shape, no matter their own financial comfort. (“Things were better with [Trump] in office,” a Republican caucus-goer in Iowa told the New York Times, adding, “I have been pretty lucky, though.”)

But demoralized Democrats and the swing voters who decide elections in battleground states can be swayed. Granted, you can’t convince voters that the economy is good if they aren’t feeling it, but to some degree most Americans are, polls and data show. The early signs of rosier — and more realistic — consumer sentiment, are reflected in this month’s double-digit rise tracked by the much-followed University of Michigan index. And the effect of Bidenomics’ long-term public investments, like the bridge-replacement project the president visited on the Wisconsin-Minnesota border Thursday, has yet to be realized.

The president has to hope the gains stick, as many economists predict, and that voters give him props.

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President Obama, facing reelection in 2012, told people privately that he was determined to win because “I’ll be damned” if someone else was going to take credit for the growth his administration had set in motion after the Great Recession. Surely Obama’s vice president remembers such talk. Maybe that helps explain why Biden is similarly driven to run again, even when many Democrats wish he’d retire: He’ll be damned if he’s going to let Trump, or anyone else, reap the rewards at all the ribbon-cuttings ahead.

But first Biden and his fellow Democrats have to convince more voters that his policies actually are working — that the U.S. economy really is as good as the data show.

@jackiekcalmes

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Video: Senate Republicans Block Limits to Trump’s War Powers

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Video: Senate Republicans Block Limits to Trump’s War Powers

new video loaded: Senate Republicans Block Limits to Trump’s War Powers

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Senate Republicans Block Limits to Trump’s War Powers

Senate Republicans voted against a Democratic bill that would have required President Trump to obtain congressional authorization to continue waging war against Iran.

“The yeas are 47. The nays are 53. The motion to discharge is not approved.” “President Trump decided to attack Iran. That decision was profound, deliberate and correct. The president understands the weight of war.” “Why is Donald Trump hellbent on making history repeat itself? Why is he plunging America headfirst into a war that Americans do not want, and which he cannot even explain? The American people deserve a say, and that is what our resolution is about.”

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Senate Republicans voted against a Democratic bill that would have required President Trump to obtain congressional authorization to continue waging war against Iran.

By Shawn Paik

March 5, 2026

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DHS defends McLaughlin against allegations husband’s company profited millions from ad contracts: ‘Baseless’

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DHS defends McLaughlin against allegations husband’s company profited millions from ad contracts: ‘Baseless’

NEWYou can now listen to Fox News articles!

EXCLUSIVE: Newly obtained financial statements shed light on claims that former Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Assistant Secretary Tricia McLaughlin’s husband’s company made millions from a DHS advertising campaign.

DHS Secretary Kristi Noem faced intense questioning during a Senate Judiciary Committee hearing Tuesday, and Sen. John Kennedy, R-La., specifically called out the agency for contracting a public relations firm headed by McLaughlin’s husband, Benjamin Yoho.

“I have personally reviewed the allegations against Ms. McLaughlin, and I find them to be baseless,” DHS General Counsel James Percival told Fox News Digital. “Nothing illegal or unethical occurred with respect to these contracts. Ms. McLaughlin was not involved in selecting any subcontractors.

“She is, however, a superstar in the public affairs world, so I am not surprised that she married a successful businessman whose services were attractive to these outside firms.”

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Newly obtained financial statements address allegations that former Department of Homeland Security Assistant Secretary Tricia McLaughlin’s husband’s firm improperly profited from a multimillion-dollar DHS ad campaign. Lawmakers pressed Secretary Kristi Noem over the contracts during a heated Senate hearing. (Jack Gruber/USA Today)

Kennedy alleged that Yoho’s firm, The Strategy Group, “got most of the money” out of what the Louisiana Republican senator says was $220 million in “television advertisements that feature [Noem] prominently.”

“I’m sorry,” Kennedy said. “Safe America Media was a company formed 11 days before you picked them. And that the Strategy Group got most of the money. And the head of that is married to your former spokesperson.”

“It’s just hard for me to believe knowing the president as I do, that you said, ‘Mr. President, here’s some ads I’ve cut, and I’m going to spend $220 million running them,’ that he would have agreed to that,” Kennedy explained. “I don’t think Russ Vought at OMB [Office of Management and Budget] would have agreed to that.”

‘YOU SHOULD BE ASHAMED!’: PROTESTER DRAGGED FROM KRISTI NOEM’S SENATE HEARING

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Senate scrutiny intensified over a DHS advertising campaign after Sen. John Kennedy, R-La., questioned whether a firm linked to McLaughlin’s husband benefited unfairly. DHS officials and the company deny any wrongdoing or multimillion-dollar profits. (Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

The Strategy Group is a conservative advertising agency for which Yoho serves as CEO.

Figures obtained by Fox News Digital show a slightly lesser total advertising expenditure of approximately $185 million, with a total of roughly $146.5 million going to a campaign called “Save America.”

However, of the total that went to “Save America,” roughly $348,000 went to production costs, while the remaining $142 million went to “media buys.”

Sources at DHS say that media buys are the cost of actually buying the ads themselves, whether purchased from social media or for a TV ad.

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Kennedy also alleged that the bidding process for the contracts never took place and that Safe America Media’s recent founding was a cause for concern and collusion between McLaughlin and her husband’s business. 

WATCH THE MOST VIRAL MOMENTS AS KRISTI NOEM’S HEARING GOES OFF THE RAILS

Debate over DHS’ “Save America” ad campaign intensified as senators challenged its costs and contractor ties, even as agency officials touted the initiative as a historic success in promoting self-deportation. (Graeme Sloan/Getty Images)

“Yes they did,” Noem responded during the hearing. “They went out to a competitive bid, and career officials at the department chose who would do those advertising commercials.”

The Strategy Group posted to X Tuesday that it never had a contract with the department. While it did receive several hundred thousand dollars for production costs associated with the advertising campaigns, The Strategy Group never made millions.

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“The Strategy Group has never had a contract with DHS,” the post said. “We had a subcontract with Safe America [Media] for limited production services. Safe America paid us $226,137.17 total for 5 film shoots, 45 produced video advertisements and 6 produced radio advertisements.

DHS SPOKESWOMAN TRICIA MCLAUGHLIN TO LEAVE TRUMP ADMIN, SOURCE CONFIRMS

Critics raised concerns about potential conflicts of interest in a high-dollar DHS advertising effort, but department representatives say McLaughlin recused herself and that subcontracting decisions were made independently. (AP Photo/Jose Luis Magana, File)

“If you’re going to try to question our integrity, bring actual evidence — we did,” the post concluded.

Because these ads were purchased using public funds, all contract totals are publicly available. 

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Lauren Bis, who took up the role of assistant secretary once McLaughlin left office, told Fox News Digital Tuesday that scrutiny from Republicans and Democrats over the advertising spending was unjustified because the campaigns resulted in “the most successful ad campaign in U.S. history.”

“Sanctuary politicians are attacking this ad campaign because it has been successful in CLOSING our borders and getting more than 2.2 million illegal aliens to LEAVE the U.S.,” Bis said. 

“The DHS domestic and international ad campaign was the most successful ad campaign in U.S. history. The results speak for themselves: 2.2 million illegal aliens self-deported, and we now have the most secure border in American history.”

KRISTI NOEM TO FACE SENATE GRILLING OVER MINNEAPOLIS SHOOTINGS AS DHS SHUTDOWN HITS WEEK 3

The Trump administration reaffirmed that all illegal immigrants are eligible for deportations as they focus on arresting violent criminals first.  (Raquel Natalicchio/Houston Chronicle via Getty Images)

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Bis also compared the cost of arresting and deporting an illegal migrant to that of the minimal cost of an illegal migrant self-deporting. The department says the advertising campaign played a key role in marketing self-deportation.

A spokesperson at DHS also told Fox News Digital that contractors decide who they hire, fulfilling the terms of a contract, not the department itself. 

“By law, DHS cannot and does not determine, control or weigh in on who contractors hire or use to fulfill the terms of the contract,” a DHS spokesperson told Fox. “Those decisions are made by the contractor alone. We have only become aware of these companies because of this inquiry and did not hire those companies.”

The spokesperson also noted that McLaughlin “recused herself” from interactions with subcontractors to avoid “any perceived appearance of impropriety.”

“Upon hearing who the subcontractors were for production of the ad, Ms. McLaughlin recused herself from any interaction or engagement with any subcontractors to avoid any perceived appearance of impropriety,” the spokesperson continued. “DHS Office of Public Affairs is the program officer. Ms. McLaughlin oversees the DHS Office of Public Affairs, which is simply the vehicle for this contract.”

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Department of Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem takes her seat as she arrives to testify during a Senate Judiciary Committee hearing Tuesday on Capitol Hill in Washington, D.C. (Jim Watson/AFP via Getty Images)

McLaughlin told Fox News Digital the criticism of her and her family by senators at the hearing is a matter of public manipulation.

CLICK HERE TO DOWNLOAD THE FOX NEWS APP

“This is yet another example of politicians intentionally trying to dupe and manipulate the public to try to manufacture division and anger,” McLaughlin told Fox News Digital. “The ad spend and contracts are a matter of public record, and the process was done by the book.

“These politicians would rather smear private citizens and American small businesses than do any basic research.”

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Fox News Digital’s Alexandra Koch contributed to this report.

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DHS defends ad blitz amid Senate scrutiny, says campaign drove 2.2M self-deportations and saved taxpayers $39B
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Senate rejects war powers measure to withdraw forces from Iran

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Senate rejects war powers measure to withdraw forces from Iran

Senate Republicans blocked a war powers resolution Wednesday designed to withdraw U.S. forces from hostilities in Iran, as the Trump administration accelerates its military campaign in a conflict that has killed hundreds, including at least six American service members.

The motion failed in a vote of 47-53.

In addition to pulling out military resources from the Middle East, the measure — introduced by Sens. Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.), Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) and Tim Kaine (D-Va.) — would have required Congress’ explicit approval before future engagement with Iran, a power granted to the legislative branch in the Constitution.

The House, where Republicans also hold an advantage, is scheduled to weigh in on a similar measure Thursday. Even if both Democratic-led measures were to succeed, President Trump was widely expected to veto the legislation.

“We are doing very well on the war front, to put it mildly,” President Trump said at a White House event on Wednesday afternoon. The president, who has come under scrutiny for offering shifting explanations on the war’s endgame, said that if he was asked to scale the American military operation from one to 10, he would rate it a 15.

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Democrats dispute that Trump possesses the authority to wage the ongoing operation in Iran without explicit congressional approval.

Acknowledging the measure was unlikely to succeed, they framed the vote as a strategy to force lawmakers to put their support for or opposition to the war on record.

“Today every senator — every single one — will pick a side,” Schumer said. “Do you stand with the American people who are exhausted with forever wars in the Middle East, or stand with Donald Trump and Pete Hegseth as they bumble us headfirst into another war?”

Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) and most of his Republican colleagues have maintained that the president carried out a “pre-emptive” and “defensive” strike in Iran, giving him full authority to continue unilateral military operations.

Republicans saw the vote as the “last roadblock” stopping Trump from carrying out his mission against the Islamic Republic.

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“I think the president has the authority that he needs to conduct the activities and operations that are currently underway there. There are a lot of controversy and questions around the war powers act, but I think the president is acting in the best interest of the nation and our national security interests,” Thune said at a news conference.

Senators largely held to party loyalties, with the exception of Kentucky Republican Rand Paul, who broke ranks to support the measure, and Pennsylvania Democrat John Fetterman, who opposed it.

The vote comes as Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said Wednesday that the war against Iran is “accelerating,” with American and Israeli forces expanding air operations into Iranian territory. He pointed to evidence released by U.S. Central Command of a submarine strike on an Iranian warship, and also lauded other strikes throughout the region as civilian casualties in Iran surpassed 1,000 on the fourth day of the conflict, according to rights groups.

“We’re going to continue to do well,” Trump said Wednesday. “We have the greatest military in the world by far and that was a tremendous threat to us for many years. Forty-seven years they’ve been killing our people and killing people all over the world, and we have great support.”

Republicans blocked a similar war powers vote in January after the president ordered U.S. special forces to capture and extradite Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in Caracas on drug trafficking charges.

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GOP leaders argued that the outcome of that mission equated to a quick success in the Middle East, despite an uncertain timeline from the Department of Defense.

In the House, lawmakers will vote on a separate war powers effort Thursday. That bill is led by Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) and Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.), the two lawmakers who authored the Epstein Files Transparency Act.

“Instead of sending billions overseas, we need to invest in jobs, healthcare, and education here,” Khanna said on X.

In addition to that proposal, moderate Democrats in the House have introduced a separate resolution that would give the administration a 30-day window to justify continued hostilities in the Middle East before requiring a formal declaration of war or authorization from Congress.

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