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Opinion: Economists see a 'spectacular' economy. Most voters don't. Can Biden turn that around?

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Opinion: Economists see a 'spectacular' economy. Most voters don't. Can Biden turn that around?

If President Biden’s reelection hinged on the state of the economy, he’d be a good bet, or at least a better one. Instead, it’s voters’ perception of the economy that matters. Which is a big reason the president is struggling as his campaign against presumptive rival Donald Trump gets underway.

Rarely if ever in the modern history of polling has there been such a disconnect between how the economy is faring and how many Americans think it’s doing. That’s partly because of our political polarization. Media coverage of the economy, and of the Republicans who falsely blather about it unchallenged, isn’t helping. We journalists have to do better: Stop letting South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott, for instance, get away unchecked with saying Biden “has destroyed our economy,” as happened on a recent Sunday talk show.

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Jackie Calmes

Jackie Calmes brings a critical eye to the national political scene. She has decades of experience covering the White House and Congress.

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But the real onus is on Biden. He must persuade the persuadables among skeptical voters. He’s trying, but he needs help from the Democratic bench, and fast.

Separate news late last week — about two government reports, a stock market record and a national poll — underscored how divorced economic reality and perception have become.

On Thursday came the report that the economy had grown 3.1% in 2023 — faster than the gross domestic product’s average growth in the three pre-pandemic years under Trump. Word followed on Friday that inflation continued to cool in December, to levels last seen before the pandemic. The inflation report stoked investors’ confidence that the Federal Reserve would indeed cut interest rates; the S&P 500 surged for yet another record trading day.

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Economic growth. Back-to-normal inflation. Lower interest rates. A bull market. It all confirms a trend that’s been apparent for months, along with low unemployment, more job creation than under Trump and real wage increases outpacing inflation. Meanwhile, talk of an imminent recession is so 2022.

The superlatives from giddy economists read like the promo blurbs on movie ads: “Just a perfect report” — Mark Zandi, Moody’s Analytics. “Stunning and spectacular” — Diane Swonk, KPMG. “Hard to imagine how things could look better” — UBS’ Brian Rose. “This year has been like Rock ‘Em Sock ‘Em Robots” — Dan North, Allianz Trade Americas.

Responding to Biden’s celebratory statement — “Wages, wealth, and employment are higher now than they were before the pandemic” (read: when Trump was president) — even Trump’s former economic advisor, Larry Kudlow, conceded on his Fox Business show, “I would be bragging about it, too.”

From most Americans, however, all you get is a Bronx cheer.

Amid the good economic reports came poll results from the Pew Research Center and the headline said it all: “Americans More Upbeat on the Economy; Biden’s Job Rating Remains Low.” And “upbeat”? That’s relative. Yes, Pew found a 9-point increase since last April in the percentage of adults who rate the economy as excellent or good — up to a whopping 28%. The increase came among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents. Still, less than half of Democrats, 44%, had positive views of the economy. And just 13% of Republicans said it was excellent or good.

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Many Americans’ views of the economy have long tended to be colored by whether the White House occupant is someone of their favored party. But that bias is more evident than ever in these more polarized times.

It’s become so pronounced among Republicans, two Stanford University economists found in November, that traditional models to gauge consumers’ sentiment using fundamental economic data (inflation, stocks, unemployment, consumption) “have broken down” since 2020. Consumer sentiment should be about 13 points higher on the feel-good scale, economics professor Neale Mahoney and doctoral candidate Ryan Cummings concluded.

With the oft-lying Trump calling the economy “so fragile,” and wishing for “a crash,” many in his party will never be convinced the economy is actually in good shape, no matter their own financial comfort. (“Things were better with [Trump] in office,” a Republican caucus-goer in Iowa told the New York Times, adding, “I have been pretty lucky, though.”)

But demoralized Democrats and the swing voters who decide elections in battleground states can be swayed. Granted, you can’t convince voters that the economy is good if they aren’t feeling it, but to some degree most Americans are, polls and data show. The early signs of rosier — and more realistic — consumer sentiment, are reflected in this month’s double-digit rise tracked by the much-followed University of Michigan index. And the effect of Bidenomics’ long-term public investments, like the bridge-replacement project the president visited on the Wisconsin-Minnesota border Thursday, has yet to be realized.

The president has to hope the gains stick, as many economists predict, and that voters give him props.

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President Obama, facing reelection in 2012, told people privately that he was determined to win because “I’ll be damned” if someone else was going to take credit for the growth his administration had set in motion after the Great Recession. Surely Obama’s vice president remembers such talk. Maybe that helps explain why Biden is similarly driven to run again, even when many Democrats wish he’d retire: He’ll be damned if he’s going to let Trump, or anyone else, reap the rewards at all the ribbon-cuttings ahead.

But first Biden and his fellow Democrats have to convince more voters that his policies actually are working — that the U.S. economy really is as good as the data show.

@jackiekcalmes

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Dem fundraising giant in the hot seat as GOP lawmakers demand answers over dodged subpoena

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Dem fundraising giant in the hot seat as GOP lawmakers demand answers over dodged subpoena

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House Republicans are demanding ActBlue, a top Democratic campaign fundraising apparatus, turn over international communications, probing whether the organization knowingly misled lawmakers and dodged subpoenas to hide weaknesses in its screening process to weed out illegal, overseas donations.

House Administration Committee Chairman Bryan Steil, R-Wis., House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Jordan, R-Ohio, and House Oversight Committee Chairman James Comer, R-Ky., collectively laid out their demands in a letter published on Tuesday.

“For more than a year, the Committees have conducted oversight regarding ActBlue’s ‘fundamentally unserious approach to fraud prevention,’” the letter reads.

“Recent reporting … strongly suggests that ActBlue deliberately obstructed the Committees’ investigation, including through misleading statements and noncompliance with our subpoenas.”

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BREAKING THE FOURTH WALL: LEFT-WING GROUPS DEFIANT AS GOP SHEDS LIGHT ON GROUPS TIED TO CHINA

Rep. Jim Jordan leaves a House Republican Conference meeting at the U.S. Capitol in Washington, D.C., on Dec. 10, 2024. (Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc)

The letter is addressed to Regina Wallace-Jones, the CEO and president of ActBlue, and is the most recent entry in investigations that began in 2023 when Republicans originally raised concerns about foreign donations possibly influencing American elections.

It also follows New York Times reporting on a memo from Covington & Burling, a law firm, warning that gaps in its screening armor could present “a substantial risk for ActBlue.”

The memo, on its own, does not implicate wrongdoing or indicate that ActBlue accepted international donations. Even so, the reporting caught the eye of Republicans in Congress.

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Steil, Jordan and Comer are collectively asking ActBlue to produce two internal documents to examine the internal understanding ActBlue may have had about its own weaknesses.

The first is a resignation letter from General Counsel Aaron Ting — a document Republicans contend centers on liabilities created by ActBlue’s donation security.

Republicans believe the second, a message from ActBlue’s former legal counsel Zain Ahmad, relates to an ignored whistleblower complaint about those practices.

HOUSE HEARING RAISES RED FLAGS OVER FORMER TECH MOGUL’S ‘CCP NETWORK’ ALLEGEDLY FUNDING OF FAR-LEFT GROUPS

House Oversight Committee Chairman Rep. James Comer (R-KY) speaks to the media on his Committee’s investigation into former President Joe Biden’s cognitive state, in the Rayburn House Office Building on July 24, 2025 in Washington, DC. (Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images)

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Republicans have already requested those documents before, but haven’t received them.

“There is considerable reason to believe that ActBlue may have deliberately withheld this responsive material to impede our investigation,” the letter states.

For its own part, ActBlue has claimed it makes every effort to ensure its fundraising complies with legal requirements.

In ActBlue’s own letter published in Nov. 2023, Wallace-Jones, the CEO, affirmed that the organization maintained the highest standards for scrutiny of its fundraising.

“Our approach is multilayered, with checks and confirmations occurring throughout the donation process to verify donors and donor information,” Wallace-Jones wrote.

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“These measures, which include compliance measures, technological tools, and manual reviews, help to ensure the identity of donors, root out potential foreign contributions, and protect donors from financial fraud.”

OVERSIGHT DEMANDS DOJ ANSWERS ON FOREIGN FUNDING OF AGITATOR GROUPS AS IRAN, ANTI-ICE PROTESTS CONTINUE

Regina Wallace-Jones of Palo Alto soaks up the first evening of the DNC Convention at the United Center in Chicago, IL on Monday, August 19, 2024. (Photo by Yalonda M. James/San Francisco Chronicle via Getty Images)

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Republican lawmakers have given ActBlue two weeks to produce the requested documentation, setting a deadline for April 28, 2026.

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“Absent these steps, the Committees are prepared to use available mechanisms to enforce our subpoenas,” the letter reads.

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Swalwell scandal sparks fears of deeper rot on Capitol Hill

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Swalwell scandal sparks fears of deeper rot on Capitol Hill

Eric Swalwell’s downfall has raised the possibility of a broader reckoning on Capitol Hill as congressional staffers, reporters and opposition researchers race to verify long-standing rumors of a sordid underground culture among the city’s most powerful.

Former lawmakers across the political spectrum have warned for years of a hushed congressional bacchanal marked by inappropriate revelry and sexual misconduct. But a sense of growing momentum gripped Congress on Tuesday, as Democrats grappled with Swalwell’s resignation and Republicans called for other lawmakers to face scrutiny.

The 72-hour collapse of Swalwell’s political career has shifted attention not only to his closest associates in Congress, but also to a larger set of sitting lawmakers from both parties suspected of lurid sexual activity. Several members have claimed that Swalwell’s alleged behavior was an open secret amid a cacophony of rumors on social media of other potential offenders.

“I think that many people knew about this for a while,” Rep. Anna Paulina Luna, a Florida Republican, said in an interview with The Times.

Luna, who planned to lead the charge to expel Swalwell before he resigned, alleged that young staffers would talk among one another about Swalwell’s conduct. Lawmakers should have done more to approach him about the rumors, she said.

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Multiple current and former female staffers who spoke with The Times described a broader culture of warning one another about lawmakers with reputations for inappropriate conduct.

But the warnings, passed privately among junior aides, have focused on “sleazy” activity and boundary-crossing behavior, said one former legislative aide, who asked to remain anonymous. Whispers about sleazy behavior generally do not meet the coverage threshold for traditional newsrooms, which are bound by strict ethical standards.

Another former aide said that quiet guidance shared among female staffers focused on behavior that is legal, but nevertheless viewed as unprofessional and unbecoming of members of Congress — a line that has prevented many from speaking out publicly.

Now, a race is on for leverage between two political parties facing comparable strategic risks — each with members facing growing questions over their alleged conduct — and for scoops among news outlets, seeking to break the story first.

The Monday resignations of Swalwell and Texas Republican Rep. Tony Gonzales, who faced his own sex scandal, was also forcing lawmakers to address the issue publicly. Sen. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) — one of Swalwell’s closest friends in Congress — answered questions from reporters at length Tuesday, telling them he should have confronted Swalwell when he heard rumors about his behavior.

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“You let your guard down. I let him into my circle. … I deeply regret it,” Gallego said.

He denied knowing about Swalwell’s alleged misconduct when asked about the behavior.

“Look, we socialized. We went out. But I never saw him engage in any of the predatory behavior, harassment, sexual assault,” Gallego said.

Notably quiet was President Trump, who has faced sexual assault accusations of his own and frequently parried with Swalwell throughout his presidency. Although Trump posted an article reporting Swalwell’s resignation on social media, he has not commented on the matter in his own words.

The unraveling scandal comes at a time when lawmakers have come together across party lines to push for transparency in the case of Jeffrey Epstein, the late sex offender and alleged sex trafficker whose network of powerful associates included Democrats and Republicans alike.

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The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Meanwhile, details of the Swalwell scandal continued to unfold Tuesday, as a Beverly Hills woman accused him of drugging and raping her in 2018. The Times could not immediately reach his attorney; he previously denied allegations of rape and sexual misconduct made by multiple women in published accounts last week.

Sex scandals are not a new phenomenon on Capitol Hill, which has seen over a dozen members embroiled in controversy over the last decade, including Katie Hill of California, Cory Mills and Matt Gaetz of Florida, and Blake Farenthold of Texas, among others.

But several prominent former members — including former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy — have warned of a more widespread cultural problem.

“Every member in Congress knows not to let any young staffer get around Swalwell or Matt Gaetz. It’s not a secret there,” McCarthy said Sunday on ABC’s “This Week.”

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Luna had pressed lawmakers to address alleged sexual misconduct on Capitol Hill. In February, she called on the “predatory freaks” in Congress to leave office as she complained about the process to get ethical complaints handled.

“It pisses me off because while some of us are actually working and busting our asses, these clowns are sexually harassing their own staff, doing illegal crap, insider trading etc,” Luna wrote at the time.

Luna said Monday that she was encouraged to see bipartisan support for expelling Swalwell and Gonzales.

A longtime staffer who spoke on condition of anonymity said Tuesday that allegations against Swalwell have sparked conversations about how to do more to help staffers report sexual misconduct, such as reforming procedural rules that would allow staffers to report any of their concerns directly to ethics panels, and about the need for ethics investigations to move more quickly.

“Congress has a short-term memory, that is the difficulty here,” the staffer said. “After these guys leave their seats, there needs to be a concerted and consistent effort for reforms to be established and be made permanent.”

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Video: Vance Says Pope Should Stay Out of U.S. Affairs

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Video: Vance Says Pope Should Stay Out of U.S. Affairs

new video loaded: Vance Says Pope Should Stay Out of U.S. Affairs

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Vance Says Pope Should Stay Out of U.S. Affairs

Vice President JD Vance weighed in on the tension between President Trump and Pope Leo XIV as Catholics expressed dismay about Mr. Trump’s attacks.

“I certainly think that in some cases, it would be best for the Vatican to stick to matters of morality, to stick to matters of, you know, what’s going on in the Catholic Church and let the president of the United States stick to dictating American public policy.” “I don’t think that the message of the Gospel is meant to be abused in the way that some people are doing. And I will continue to speak out loudly against war, looking to promote peace.” “Pope Leo said things that are wrong. There’s nothing to apologize for. He’s wrong.” “I’m not a big fan of Pope Leo. He’s a very liberal person. I don’t think he’s doing a very good job.” “I did post it, and I thought it was me as a doctor, and it had to do with the Red Cross. There’s a Red Cross worker there, which we support.” “It’s terrible. It’s gross. It’s blasphemous.” “I stand with the pope. I mean, the pope speaks the Gospel. He speaks for peace.”

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Vice President JD Vance weighed in on the tension between President Trump and Pope Leo XIV as Catholics expressed dismay about Mr. Trump’s attacks.

By Shawn Paik

April 14, 2026

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