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How Trump Is Using Truth Social to Concoct and Spread Conspiracy Theories

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How Trump Is Using Truth Social to Concoct and Spread Conspiracy Theories

Former President Donald J. Trump’s penchant for amplifying easily debunked conspiracy theories is well known. But an extensive analysis of his posts and reposts on Truth Social reveals a candidate who promotes sinister conspiracy theories at a scale and frequency well beyond his already infamous playbook.

The New York Times’s examination of Mr. Trump’s activity on Truth Social shows that, often multiple times a day, the former president is concocting or promoting dark, paranoid material and pushing it out to his millions of followers. Mr. Trump is so hungry for this content that he appears to be willing to share outlandish information from anyone, including both well-known conspiracists and anonymous accounts that tag him.

The Times analyzed thousands of Mr. Trump’s posts and reposts over a six-month period in 2024 and found that at least 330 of them met two tightly defined and striking criteria: They each described both a false, secretive plot against Mr. Trump or the American people and a specific entity supposedly responsible for it. The unfounded theories ranged from suggestions that the F.B.I. had ordered his assassination to accusations that government officials had orchestrated the Capitol riot on Jan. 6, 2021.

About 75 percent of the conspiracy-theory posts came directly from Mr. Trump’s account. The rest Mr. Trump reposted from other social media accounts. The Times also analyzed hundreds more of his posts and reposts that didn’t strictly meet both criteria but still invoked the theories with slogans and subtle references.

In addition to the posts themselves, the analysis zeroed in on the 170 Truth Social accounts that Mr. Trump had amplified on the platform. Some are ones he follows; others have just come across his radar. The vast majority of the accounts regularly promoted conspiracy theories, the analysis showed.

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The Trump campaign did not respond to a request for comment from The Times.

A spokeswoman for Truth Social did not answer questions from The Times about the company’s policies on conspiratorial content and the accounts that spread it. Instead, the spokeswoman criticized reporters.

Since Mr. Trump inaugurated the platform with its first post in 2022, Truth Social has attracted the kinds of users, and the kinds of posts, that mainstream and more heavily moderated social networks might not have tolerated. Mr. Trump’s use of the platform is near constant; he averaged 30 posts a day in the six-month period The Times analyzed. That frequency far surpasses his posting on any other social media network this year, and shows how much Mr. Trump relies on the platform, and its users, to bolster his conspiratorial worldview.

From July to September, Truth Social received an average of about 4.7 million unique monthly visitors, according to the web analytics firm Similarweb. Those users are, in general, part of a group whose fealty to Mr. Trump sets the network apart from larger ones like Facebook or X, which have monthly user counts orders of magnitude higher. While Truth Social is populated by many everyday fans and supporters of Mr. Trump’s, there are also sensationalist right-wing media upstarts, Covid deniers and devotees of QAnon, a far-right conspiracy theory whose adherents think that satanic pedophiles control the “deep state.”

“He’s building a coalition of people who just see the world in a very dark way,” said Joseph Uscinski, who is a co-author of the book “American Conspiracy Theories” and a professor of political science at the University of Miami. Mr. Trump’s rhetoric, he said, isn’t meant to cater to traditional Republican values, but instead appeals to those “who just want to see the system blown up.”

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The conspiracy theories that Mr. Trump is exposed to on Truth Social have made their way into his campaign speeches and public appearances. He has repeatedly referred, both online and off, to an “enemy from within” that includes Democrats and government officials, and suggested that the military might be needed to handle them. In October, Mr. Trump described the Jan. 6 riot as a day of “love” at a town hall event and two days later shared a Truth Social post that claimed the attack had been staged by the federal government.

Times alt text of image in post: A pair of images of Trump supporters at the U.S. Capitol, with superimposed text reading:

To analyze Mr. Trump’s account, The Times collected all 5,641 of his Truth Social posts and reposts from March 12 to Sept. 12 using computer code. Reporters also manually analyzed hundreds of posts from each profile Mr. Trump amplified to identify whether those accounts had displayed a pattern of propagating conspiratorial content.

Much of the activity on Mr. Trump’s feed consisted of general campaign-related fare, like videos from rallies or endorsements of other political candidates. It also included disinformation and hateful rhetoric about immigrants, his political opponents and other targets.

But over and over — almost twice a day on average — Mr. Trump’s account went one step further and promoted conspiracy theories to his 7.9 million followers.

A grab bag of false conspiracies: George Soros, the Nord Stream pipeline and a ‘rigged’ election

The Times’s analysis identified 10 distinct themes in the conspiracy theories shared by Mr. Trump. Some of the posts depicted below referred to multiple false theories.

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Nearly 400 additional posts not depicted above used language to refer to conspiracy theories but did not spell out the full theory on their own. This included using slogans and phrases that a believer of the theory would understand, but that an average person might not.

The common thread through most of the conspiracy theories is a belief that Mr. Trump is the protagonist of every moment and that his political adversaries are the villains.

Experts said that it was particularly concerning that some of the theories shared on Mr. Trump’s account sought to undermine institutions the public relies on, including the Federal Emergency Management Agency during Hurricane Helene, and the institutions holding the former president to account, like the Justice Department.

Mr. Trump also — with stunning frequency — sowed doubt about American democracy itself.

In more than 260 posts in the six-month period The Times analyzed, Mr. Trump shared conspiracy theories that supported his frequently stated claim that the 2024 presidential election would be fraudulent. That includes saying the criminal cases against him are Biden administration plots to interfere in the election.

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This ridiculous political HOAX, which most thought was already won by me, comes right out of the White House and DOJ, and is being pushed by Kamala Harris and Crooked Joe Biden against their political opponent, ME. Like all of the other Witch Hunt cases, it is being mocked by legal scholars and experts as gross election interference. This shouldn’t be happening in America! MAGA2024

Times alt text of image in post: A stylized image of Donald Trump with his hand over his heart, standing in front of a background featuring the image of a lion. Stylized text is superimposed and reads:

I truly wish people would remember that all of these “trials” are concocted and run by the Crooked Joe Biden White House, and DOJ, for the purpose of Election Interference and damaging Crooked’s Political Opponent, ME, as much as possible. These are not legitimate trials, they are merely part of an illegal POLITICAL WITCH HUNT the likes of which our Country has never seen before! MAGA2024

The Radical Left Democrats are already cheating on the 2024 Presidential Election by bringing, or helping to bring, all of these bogus lawsuits against me, thereby forcing me to sit in courthouses, and spend money that could be used for campaigning, instead of being out in the field knocking Crooked Joe Biden, the WORST President in the History of the United States. Election Interference!

Some posts falsely alleged that Democrats were relying on undocumented immigrants to vote and sway the election. Mr. Trump also shared posts with references to replacement theory, a far-right false claim often promoted by white supremacists that says powerful forces are trying to replace American citizens with immigrants.

If Republicans in the House, and Senate, don’t get absolute assurances on Election Security, THEY SHOULD, IN NO WAY, SHAPE, OR FORM, GO FORWARD WITH A CONTINUING RESOLUTION ON THE BUDGET. THE DEMOCRATS ARE TRYING TO “STUFF” VOTER REGISTRATIONS WITH ILLEGAL ALIENS. DON’T LET IT HAPPEN – CLOSE IT DOWN!!!

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For 3 years, Crooked Joe Biden has flooded our Country with tens of millions of Illegal Aliens, while insisting he could do nothing to stop it. Do NOT be fooled by any phony Biden Executive Order. Crooked Joe opposes Deportations, and he wants to turn his Illegal Migrants into Voting Citizens. He is giving them Free Welfare, Healthcare, and Housing, and he’s letting them crash our Hospitals, our Education System, and Social Security and Medicare, while our Communities are under siege from Migrant Crime. Joe Biden opposes the Laken Riley Act to deport Illegal Alien Criminals. Crooked Joe Biden’s Illegal Invasion is a crime against the United States of America. Ask Joe how many of these millions of Illegal Aliens, Murderers, and Terrorists his Order will deport – The answer is ZERO. On Day One, I will Deport Crooked Joe’s Illegals, and SHUT THE BORDER DOWN!

It’s unclear whether Mr. Trump or one of his campaign staffers wrote any individual post, but each one had been sent from the former president’s official account.

Max Read, a senior research manager at the Institute for Strategic Dialogue who studies election disinformation, said that after months of Mr. Trump’s false assertions about election integrity, some Truth Social users may accept only a Trump victory.

“Who are you going to go to to trust election results?” Mr. Read said. “It’s not going to be the media. It’s not going to be the professionals doing the elections. If you’re living in that reality and getting that information on Truth Social, you’re going to trust Trump and only Trump.”

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Other conspiracy theories Mr. Trump shared included claims that the Biden administration had blown up the Nord Stream pipeline to start a world war; that George Soros, a billionaire Democratic donor, was devising plots to undermine Mr. Trump (a claim that often has antisemitic undertones because Mr. Soros is Jewish); and that Vice President Kamala Harris had used artificial intelligence to fake the size of her crowds at rallies.

#FJB #TrumpWon2020 #Trump2024Landslide #ArrestBiden #ArrestObama #DeathPenaltyForPedophiles #MilitaryTribunalsForTreason

Times alt text of image in post: A screenshot of a post from Truth Social user @fireduptxlawyer. The text of the post reads:

The posts from Mr. Trump that did not meet the threshold of conspiracy theory on their own, but still referred to conspiratorial viewpoints, touched on some of the most dangerous and persistent false claims. For example, he has called the people in prison for their actions on Jan. 6 “hostages,” implying they had been falsely imprisoned in a plot against him. In one of those posts, Mr. Trump shared a song that combined his voice with a choir made up of people charged for their alleged roles in the attack on the Capitol.

January 6th hostages with President Donald J. Trump…

In more than a dozen instances, Mr. Trump shared posts that included known QAnon slogans and imagery, like the acronym “NCSWIC,” meaning “Nothing can stop what is coming,” and “Q+,” the movement’s nickname for Mr. Trump.

“He’s able to reference a series of claims and characters and so forth now,” said Brendan Nyhan, a professor of government at Dartmouth College who studies misinformation and conspiracy theories. “There’s an incredible conceptual apparatus that has been built up around the various villains that he thinks are persecuting him and his followers.”

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The far-right universe Trump amplifies: real-life confidants and anonymous sycophants

Not everything Mr. Trump posts to Truth Social is a conspiracy theory. But almost every voice he amplifies at least dabbles in them — some even more extreme than what Mr. Trump shares from their accounts.

The Times’s analysis found that in the same six-month period this year, Mr. Trump reposted or quote-posted messages from 170 accounts, about 85 percent of which regularly promote conspiracy theories on their own feeds.

About one-third of those 170 accounts were run by people or organizations that Mr. Trump knows in real life, follows on Truth Social or both. They include some of the most extreme figures in the MAGA wing of the Republican Party, many of whom regularly visit his Mar-a-Lago resort, like the far-right activist Laura Loomer and Michael T. Flynn, his former national security adviser.

Mr. Trump reposted a campaign endorsement from Mr. Flynn that alleged that children “will be enslaved by a corrupt, wasteful government of woke globalists” if he is not elected.

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Most of the other accounts reposted by Mr. Trump were not as well known, including 15 that had fewer than 500 followers. Because Truth Social allows for anonymity in its users’ public profiles, determining the identities of the owners of many of these accounts can be difficult.

U.S. officials have said that foreign nations have injected disinformation into dozens of social media platforms ahead of the 2024 election. It was unclear if any of these accounts were part of that effort.

The three posts below were all reposted by Mr. Trump, who shared material from each of the three accounts more than 20 times in the six months The Times examined:

TIME TO EXPOSE THIS COUP AGAINST AMERICA! BRING DOWN THE ENTIRE SOROS FAMILY AND ALL THESE TREASONOUS TRAITORS THAT HE FUNDS!

Times alt text of image in post: A grid of images that all feature Alex Soros, George Soros's son.
Times alt text of image in post: An image of FBI director Christopher Wray, with superimposed text that reads:
Times alt text of image in post: A stylized portrait of Donald Trump, standing with palms outstretched in front of Earth, with superimposed text reading:

In some cases, Truth Social users tag and reply to the former president over and over, and he intermittently rewards them with a repost. For instance, Mr. Trump reposted the image below after being tagged in a post:

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Let’s get an administration that is American First! #Trump2024 

Times alt text of image in post: A stylized image featuring various members of the Biden-Harris administration, with superimposed text reading:

In April, “Ultra MAGA Truther” tagged Mr. Trump in a post with a litany of conspiracy theories about Mr. Biden, including that “he stole the election” and “sold the influence of his office to China for millions.” Mr. Trump reposted it.

“Ultra MAGA Truther” is one of at least three dozen accounts amplified by Mr. Trump that either included a reference to QAnon in its bio or repeatedly posted messages with slogans and imagery associated with the conspiracy theory.

Mr. Trump also posts screenshots of content from Truth Social or other social media platforms without linking to the original post, or visual content that includes watermarks of social media handles. The Times looked at nearly 300 accounts identified in these kinds of posts, dozens of which also trafficked in conspiracy theories. They include well-known figures such as Elon Musk, whom Mr. Trump has suggested would have a job in his administration if he wins.

Times alt text of image in post: A screenshot of a post by Elon Musk on X. The text of the post reads:
Times alt text of image in post: A screenshot of a post by X user @TheRISEofROD. The text of the post reads,

In one post in August, Mr. Trump shared an image of a post on X that used the phrase “too big to rig,” a conspiratorial shorthand that promotes the baseless idea that the 2024 election will be fair only if Mr. Trump wins in a landslide. The Times found that the account behind the image had posted antisemitic content on X, including a post that said “Adolf Hitler was right.”

As Americans vote, Trump ramps up threats and undermines election

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Truth Social hails itself as a “free speech haven” and publicly says it doesn’t moderate content unless it is illegal or otherwise prohibited by its terms of service. In addition to the conspiracy theories, The Times found multiple posts from social media accounts Mr. Trump amplified that included crude sexual comments about Ms. Harris, racist disinformation about immigrants and manipulated images and videos used to attack his opponents.

Mr. Trump’s use of the platform continues to be constant: He posted more than 240 times last week.

On Friday, Mr. Trump took to Truth Social to repeat his false claims that the 2020 election had been stolen and that he would seek retribution on anyone who had been involved once elected. He said those people, including lawyers, donors, election officials and “illegal voters,” would be “sought out, caught, and prosecuted at levels, unfortunately, never seen before in our Country.”

CEASE & DESIST: I, together with many Attorneys and Legal Scholars, am watching the Sanctity of the 2024 Presidential Election very closely because I know, better than most, the rampant Cheating and Skullduggery that has taken place by the Democrats in the 2020 Presidential Election. It was a Disgrace to our Nation! Therefore, the 2024 Election, where Votes have just started being cast, will be under the closest professional scrutiny and, WHEN I WIN, those people that CHEATED will be prosecuted to the fullest extent of the Law, which will include long term prison sentences so that this Depravity of Justice does not happen again. We cannot let our Country further devolve into a Third World Nation, AND WE WON’T! Please beware that this legal exposure extends to Lawyers, Political Operatives, Donors, Illegal Voters, & Corrupt Election Officials. Those involved in unscrupulous behavior will be sought out, caught, and prosecuted at levels, unfortunately, never seen before in our Country.

The post quickly gathered thousands of replies from other users who shared additional conspiracy theories and cheered on Mr. Trump’s call for retribution.

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Though most of these accounts are not household names, at least eight — including one that called former President Barack Obama “a sleeper cell terrorist” in a reply — may have looked familiar to Mr. Trump. He has reposted their content before.

Methodology

The New York Times collected 5,641 posts Mr. Trump made on Truth Social from March 12 to Sept. 12 using Truthbrush, a tool built by researchers at the Stanford Internet Observatory, to scrape the text, media and metadata of Truth Social posts. The data didn’t include any posts he may have deleted before Sept. 13.

Times reporters then analyzed each post to determine if it contained the hallmarks of a conspiracy theory. For a post to meet the standard, it had to mention a secret and ultimately false plot against Mr. Trump, his allies or the American public and point out the people or entities supposedly behind it. An additional 388 posts that included only one of these elements or only subtly referred to the conspiracy theories, such as by using slogans known by their believers, were labeled as “conspiracy theory adjacent” and were not included in the eventual tally of at least 330 posts.

These posts were then categorized into one or more of 10 common topics that were referred to in the conspiracy theories.

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To understand whom Mr. Trump was interacting with, The Times also looked at the 170 accounts that Mr. Trump reposted or quote-posted in the time period. Each account was categorized into multiple buckets, including whether it had displayed a pattern of promoting conspiracy theories; whether its bio included references to QAnon or the account repeatedly shared QAnon content; whether it was followed by Mr. Trump or run by someone Mr. Trump knew in real life; and whether the account posted crude attacks of a sexual nature.

Mr. Trump also frequently shared videos and images containing watermarks by other users and screenshots of content from Truth Social and other platforms. To capture these accounts, The Times used an open-source machine learning model called Qwen-2 to extract the social media usernames visible in the images or in the first frame of videos from the 3,400 pieces of media in Mr. Trump’s posts and reposts. Times reporters then manually matched the extracted handles to the associated account on the correct platform.

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Wyoming Supreme Court rules laws restricting abortion violate state constitution

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Wyoming Supreme Court rules laws restricting abortion violate state constitution

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The Wyoming Supreme Court ruled on Tuesday that a pair of laws restricting abortion access violate the state constitution, including the country’s first explicit ban on abortion pills.

The court, in a 4-1 ruling, sided with the state’s only abortion clinic and others who had sued over the abortion bans passed since the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in 2022, which returned the power to make laws on abortion back to the states.

Despite Wyoming being one of the most conservative states, the ruling handed down by justices who were all appointed by Republican governors upheld every previous lower court ruling that the abortion bans violated the state constitution.

Wellspring Health Access in Casper, the abortion access advocacy group Chelsea’s Fund and four women, including two obstetricians, argued that the laws violated a state constitutional amendment affirming that competent adults have the right to make their own health care decisions.

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TRUMP URGES GOP TO BE ‘FLEXIBLE’ ON HYDE AMENDMENT, IGNITING BACKLASH FROM PRO-LIFE ALLIES

The Wyoming Supreme Court ruled that a pair of laws restricting abortion access violate the state constitution. (Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images)

Voters approved the constitutional amendment in 2012 in response to the federal Affordable Care Act, which is also known as Obamacare.

The justices in Wyoming found that the amendment was not written to apply to abortion but noted that it is not their job to “add words” to the state constitution.

“But lawmakers could ask Wyoming voters to consider a constitutional amendment that would more clearly address this issue,” the justices wrote.

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Wellspring Health Access President Julie Burkhart said in a statement that the ruling upholds abortion as “essential health care” that should not be met with government interference.

“Our clinic will remain open and ready to provide compassionate reproductive health care, including abortions, and our patients in Wyoming will be able to obtain this care without having to travel out of state,” Burkhart said.

Wellspring Health Access opened as the only clinic in the state to offer surgical abortions in 2023, a year after a firebombing stopped construction and delayed its opening. A woman is serving a five-year prison sentence after she admitted to breaking in and lighting gasoline that she poured over the clinic floors.

Wellspring Health Access opened as the only clinic in the state to offer surgical abortions in 2023, a year after a firebombing stopped construction. (AP)

Attorneys representing the state had argued that abortion cannot violate the Wyoming constitution because it is not a form of health care.

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Republican Gov. Mark Gordon expressed disappointment in the ruling and called on state lawmakers meeting later this winter to pass a constitutional amendment prohibiting abortion that residents could vote on this fall.

An amendment like that would require a two-thirds vote to be introduced as a nonbudget matter in the monthlong legislative session that will primarily address the state budget, although it would have significant support in the Republican-dominated legislature.

“This ruling may settle, for now, a legal question, but it does not settle the moral one, nor does it reflect where many Wyoming citizens stand, including myself. It is time for this issue to go before the people for a vote,” Gordon said in a statement.

APPEALS COURT SIDES WITH TRUMP ON BUDGET PROVISION CUTTING PLANNED PARENTHOOD FUNDS

Gov. Mark Gordon expressed disappointment in the ruling. (Getty Images)

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One of the laws overturned by the state’s high court attempted to ban abortion, but with exceptions in cases where it is needed to protect a pregnant woman’s life or in cases of rape or incest. The other law would have made Wyoming the only state to explicitly ban abortion pills, although other states have implemented de facto bans on abortion medication by broadly restricting abortion.

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Abortion has remained legal in the state since Teton County District Judge Melissa Owens blocked the bans while the lawsuit challenging the restrictions moved forward. Owens struck down the laws as unconstitutional in 2024.

Last year, Wyoming passed additional laws requiring abortion clinics to be licensed surgical centers and women to receive ultrasounds before having medication abortions. A judge in a separate lawsuit blocked those laws from taking effect while that case moves forward.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

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What Trump’s vow to withhold federal child-care funding means in California

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What Trump’s vow to withhold federal child-care funding means in California

Gov. Gavin Newsom and other state Democratic leaders accused President Trump of unleashing a political vendetta after he announced plans to freeze roughly $10 billion in federal funding for child care and social services programs in California and four other Democrat-controlled states.

Trump justified the action in comments posted on his social media platform Truth Social, where he accused Newsom of widespread fraud. The governor’s office dismissed the accusation as “deranged.”

Trump’s announcement came amid a broader administration push to target Democratic-led states over alleged fraud in taxpayer-funded programs, following sweeping prosecutions in Minnesota. The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services confirmed the planned funding freeze, which was first reported by the New York Post.

California officials said they have received no formal notice and argued the president is using unsubstantiated claims to justify a move that could jeopardize child care and social services for low-income families.

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How we got here

Trump posted on his social media site Truth Social on Tuesday that under Newsom, California is “more corrupt than Minnesota, if that’s possible???” In the post, Trump used a derogatory nickname for Newsom that has become popular with the governor’s critics, referring to him as “Newscum.”

“The Fraud Investigation of California has begun,” Trump wrote.

The president also retweeted a story by the New York Post that said his Department of Health and Human Services will freeze taxpayer funding from the Child Care Development Fund, the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families program, which is known as CalWORKS in California, and the Social Services Block Grant program. Health and Human Services said the affected states are California, Colorado, Illinois, Minnesota and New York.

“For too long, Democrat-led states and Governors have been complicit in allowing massive amounts of fraud to occur under their watch,” said Andrew Nixon, a department spokesperson. “Under the Trump Administration, we are ensuring that federal taxpayer dollars are being used for legitimate purposes. We will ensure these states are following the law and protecting hard-earned taxpayer money.”

The department announced last month that all 50 states will have to provide additional levels of verification and administrative data before they receive more funding from the Child Care and Development Fund after a series of fraud schemes at Minnesota day-care centers run by Somali residents.

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“The Trump Administration is using the moral guise of eliminating ‘fraud and abuse’ to undermine essential programs and punish families and children who depend on these services to survive, many of whom have no other options if this funding disappears,” Kristin McGuire, president of Young Invincibles, a young-adult nonprofit economic advocacy group, said in a statement. “This is yet another ideologically motivated attack on states that treats millions of families as pawns in a political game.”

California pushes back

Newsom’s office brushed off Trump’s post about fraud allegations, calling the president “a deranged, habitual liar whose relationship with reality ended years ago.” Newsom himself said he welcomes federal fraud investigations in the state, adding in an interview on MS NOW that aired Monday night: “Bring it on. … If he has some unique insight and information, I look forward to partnering with him. I can’t stand fraud.”

However, Newsom said cutting off funding hurts hardworking families who rely on the assistance.

“You want to support families? You believe in families? Then you believe in supporting child care and child-care workers in the workforce,” Newsom told MS NOW.

California has not been notified of any changes to federal child-care or social services funding. H.D. Palmer, a spokesperson for the Department of Finance, said the only indication from Washington that California’s child-care funding could be in jeopardy was the vague 5 a.m. post Tuesday by the president on Truth Social.

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“The president tosses these social media missives in the same way Mardi Gras revelers throw beads on Bourbon Street — with zero regard for accuracy or precision,” Palmer said.

In the current state budget, Palmer said, California’s child-care spending is $7.3 billion, of which $2.2 billion is federal dollars. Newsom is set to unveil his budget proposal Friday for the fiscal year that begins July 1, which will mark the governor’s final spending plan before he terms out. Newsom has acknowledged that he is considering a 2028 bid for president, but has repeatedly brushed aside reporters’ questions about it, saying his focus remains on governing California.

Palmer said while details about the potential threat to federal child-care dollars remain unclear, what is known is that federal dollars are not like “a spigot that will be turned off by the end of the week.”

“There is no immediate cutoff that will happen,” Palmer said.

Since Trump took office, California has filed dozens of legal actions to block the president’s policy changes and funding cuts, and the state has prevailed in many of them.

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What happened in Minnesota

Federal prosecutors say Minnesota has been hit by some of the largest fraud schemes involving state-run, federally funded programs in the country. Federal prosecutors estimate that as much as half of roughly $18 billion paid to 14 Minnesota programs since 2018 may be fraudulent, with providers accused of billing for services never delivered and diverting money for personal use.

The scale of the fraud has drawn national attention and fueled the Trump administration’s decision to freeze child-care funds while demanding additional safeguards before doling out money, moves that critics say risk harming families who rely on the programs. Gov. Tim Walz has ordered a third-party audit and appointed a director of program integrity. Amid the fallout, Walz announced he will not seek a third term.

Outrage over the fraud reached a fever pitch in the White House after a video posted online by an influencer purported to expose extensive fraud at Somali-run child-care centers in Minnesota. On Monday, that influencer, Nick Shirley, posted on the social media site X, “I ENDED TIM WALZ,” a claim that prompted calls from conservative activists to shift scrutiny to Newsom and California next.

Right-wing podcaster Benny Johnson posted on X that his team will be traveling to California next week to show “how criminal California fraud is robbing our nation blind.”

California officials have acknowledged fraud failures in the past, most notably at the Employment Development Department during the COVID-19 pandemic, when weakened safeguards led to billions of dollars in unemployment payments later deemed potentially fraudulent.

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An independent state audit released last month found administrative vulnerabilities in some of California’s social services programs but stopped short of alleging widespread fraud or corruption. The California state auditor added the Department of Social Services to its high-risk list because of persistent errors in calculating CalFresh benefits, which provides food assistance to those in need — a measure of payment accuracy rather than criminal activity — warning that federal law changes could eventually force the state to absorb billions of dollars in additional costs if those errors are not reduced.

What’s at stake in California

The Trump administration’s plans to freeze federal child-care, welfare and social services funding would affect $7.3 billion in Temporary Assistance for Needy Families funding, $2.4 billion for child-care subsidies and more than $800 million for social services programs in the five states.

The move was quickly criticized as politically motivated because the targeted states were all Democrat-led.

“Trump is now illegally freezing childcare and other funding for working families, but only in blue states,” state Sen. Scott Wiener (D-San Francisco) said in a statement. “He says it’s because of ‘fraud,’ but it has nothing to do with fraud and everything to do with politics. Florida had the largest Medicaid fraud in U.S. history yet isn’t on this list.”

Added California Assembly Speaker Robert Rivas (D-Hollister): “It is unconscionable for Trump and Republicans to rip away billions of dollars that support child care and families in need, and this has nothing to do with fraud. California taxpayers pay for these programs — period — and Trump has no right to steal from our hard-working residents. We will continue to fight back.”

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Times staff writer Daniel Miller contributed to this report.

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Video: Walz Drops Re-Election Bid as Minnesota Fraud Scandal Grows

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Video: Walz Drops Re-Election Bid as Minnesota Fraud Scandal Grows

new video loaded: Walz Drops Re-Election Bid as Minnesota Fraud Scandal Grows

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Walz Drops Re-Election Bid as Minnesota Fraud Scandal Grows

Governor Tim Walz of Minnesota abandoned his re-election bid to focus on handling a scandal over fraud in social service programs that grew under his administration.

“I’ve decided to step out of this race, and I’ll let others worry about the election while I focus on the work that’s in front of me for the next year.” “All right, so this is Quality Learing Center — meant to say Quality ‘Learning’ Center.” “Right now we have around 56 kids enrolled. If the children are not here, we mark absence.”

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Governor Tim Walz of Minnesota abandoned his re-election bid to focus on handling a scandal over fraud in social service programs that grew under his administration.

By Shawn Paik

January 6, 2026

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