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Column: How RFK Jr. and other third-party candidates could swing the election and put Biden in real danger

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Column: How RFK Jr. and other third-party candidates could swing the election and put Biden in real danger

This year’s presidential election campaign is likely to be remembered as a year in which voters pondered a rematch no one really wanted.

President Biden and former President Trump are likely to win their parties’ nominations. Yet a recent Associated Press-NORC poll found that 58% of Americans dislike the idea of Trump running again, and 56% are unhappy with Biden for staying in the race.

That gives an enormous amount of power to those who dislike both, the “double haters.”

That happened in 2016, when voters who disliked Trump and Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton broke in Trump’s favor. And again in 2020, when the double haters deserted Trump for Biden.

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But this campaign has another wild card: independent and third-party candidates.

Early polls have found that when voters are offered a third choice, up to 17% grab it — enough to swing the election.

Those numbers don’t predict what will happen in November; in most years, the third-party vote shrinks rapidly as election day approaches. But they’re added evidence that voters yearn for choices different from the ones looming.

And that’s encouraged a burgeoning list of independent and third-party candidates: Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who made his name as an anti-vaccine militant; Cornel West, a prominent Black academic and socialist activist; Jill Stein, the probable third-time nominee of the Green Party; and perhaps most intriguing, a well-funded group called No Labels that hopes to field a ticket with a moderate Republican and a moderate Democrat.

That’s a problem for Biden more than Trump. Strategists in both parties believe some of the president’s current voters are more likely to desert him if they see an appetizing alternative. A Bloomberg-Morning Consult poll in seven swing states last month found evidence of that: 16% of Biden voters said they might vote for Kennedy or another independent candidate, while only 11% of Trump voters said they were tempted to take the third-party route.

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Historically, no third-party candidate has ever won a presidential election, but several have succeeded in tipping the balance.

That happened in 1912 when Theodore Roosevelt, a former Republican running as the Progressive Party candidate, split the GOP vote and delivered the White House to Democrat Woodrow Wilson. And in 2000, when Democrat Al Gore lost Florida by 537 votes, arguably because Green candidate Ralph Nader collected more than 97,000 votes in the state. And in 2016, Hillary Clinton lost the key states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania by fewer votes than Stein collected in those states.

In last week’s average of polls compiled by the website Real Clear Politics, when voters are offered more than the two major-party candidates, Kennedy attracts about 14% of the national vote; West and Stein attract 2% each. (The No Labels proposal can’t be tested the same way because the group hasn’t named its candidates.)

The most important factor at this stage, however, is not those ephemeral voter preferences. It’s whether any of those third-party candidates can get on the ballot in the closely divided “battleground states” that will almost certainly decide the presidential election: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin.

“The national numbers aren’t important,” said Doug Sosnik, a longtime Democratic strategist who worked for President Clinton. “All that matters is how these candidates are doing in the states that will decide the election. That’s where a few percentage points can decide the whole thing.”

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That’s why many Democratic strategists worry most about No Labels, the well-funded group that has a head start toward getting on the ballot in all 50 states. So far, No Labels has won ballot access in 14 states, including the battlegrounds of Arizona, Nevada and North Carolina. Stein’s Green Party is likely to get on the ballot in most states too.

Kennedy has qualified only in Utah. West’s prospects are uncertain; it is unclear that he has the funding or organization to mount a nationwide ballot-access effort.

Last week Third Way, a centrist Democratic think tank, issued a new warning to Democratic donors to steer clear of No Labels.

“Their own polling says they’d lose and be a spoiler for Trump,” Third Way Executive Vice President Matt Bennett said in an email.

No Labels contests that assertion and says its polling suggests that it could win enough states with 34% or more of the vote to assemble an electoral college majority. Political pros consider those simulations far-fetched.

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It still is unclear whether No Labels will run a ticket at all. The group planned a convention this summer, then scrubbed it.

Still, if any of those third-party candidates get on the ballot in battleground states, they’ll present an added burden for Biden.

When a president runs for a second term, the election is normally a referendum on his record. Biden hopes to flip that script and win by turning the election into a referendum on Trump. Third-party candidates could disrupt that by offering anti-Trump voters an escape route.

That means Biden won’t be able to win solely by stoking fears of his predecessor’s return. He’ll need to present a solid case that the third-party escape route is just another way of electing Trump.

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Video: Trump’s War of Choice With Iran

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Video: Trump’s War of Choice With Iran

new video loaded: Trump’s War of Choice With Iran

Our national security correspondent David E. Sanger examines the war of choice that President Trump has initiated with Iran.

By David E. Sanger, Gilad Thaler, Thomas Vollkommer and Laura Salaberry

March 1, 2026

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Dems’ potential 2028 hopefuls come out against US strikes on Iran

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Dems’ potential 2028 hopefuls come out against US strikes on Iran

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Some of the top rumored Democratic potential candidates for president in 2028 are showing a united front in opposing U.S. strikes on Iran, with several high-profile figures accusing President Donald Trump of launching an unnecessary and unconstitutional war.

Former Vice President Kamala Harris said Trump was “dragging the United States into a war the American people do not want.”

“Let me be clear: I am opposed to a regime-change war in Iran, and our troops are being put in harm’s way for the sake of Trump’s war of choice,” Harris said in a statement Saturday following the joint U.S. and Israeli strikes throughout Iran.

“This is a dangerous and unnecessary gamble with American lives that also jeopardizes stability in the region and our standing in the world,” she continued. “What we are witnessing is not strength. It is recklessness dressed up as resolve.”

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Former Vice President Kamala Harris, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and California Gov. Gavin Newsom are leading Democratic 2028 hopefuls who spoke out against U.S. strikes on Iran. (Big Event Media/Getty Images for HumanX Conference; Reuters/Liesa Johannssen; Mario Tama/Getty Images)

California Gov. Gavin Newsom delivered some of his sharpest criticism during a book tour stop Saturday night in San Francisco, accusing Trump of manufacturing a crisis.

“It stems from weakness masquerading as strength,” Newsom said. “He lied to you. So reckless is the only way to describe this.”

“He didn’t describe to the American people what the endgame is here,” Newsom added. “There wasn’t one. He manufactured it.”

Newsom is currently promoting his memoir, “Young Man in a Hurry,” with recent and upcoming stops in South Carolina, New Hampshire and Nevada — three key early voting states in the Democratic presidential calendar.

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Earlier in the day, Newsom said Iran’s “corrupt and repressive” regime must never obtain nuclear weapons and that the “leadership of Iran must go.”

“But that does not justify the President of the United States engaging in an illegal, dangerous war that will risk the lives of our American service members and our friends without justification to the American people,” Newsom wrote on X.

California is home to more than half of the roughly 400,000 Iranian immigrants in the United States, including a large community in West Los Angeles often referred to as “Tehrangeles.”

DEMOCRATS BUCK PARTY LEADERS TO DEFEND TRUMP’S ‘DECISIVE ACTION’ ON IRAN

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., a leading progressive voice and “Squad” member, accused Trump of dragging Americans into a conflict they did not support.

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“The American people are once again dragged into a war they did not want by a president who does not care about the long-term consequences of his actions. This war is unlawful. It is unnecessary. And it will be catastrophic,” Ocasio-Cortez said.

“Just this week, Iran and the United States were negotiating key measures that could have staved off war. The President walked away from these discussions and chose war instead,” she continued.

“In moments of war, our Constitution is unambiguous: Congress authorizes war. The President does not,” she said, pledging to vote “YES on Representatives Ro Khanna and Thomas Massie’s War Powers Resolution.”

Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker criticized the strikes and accused Trump of ignoring Congress. (Daniel Boczarski/Getty Images for Vox Media)

Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker, another Democrat often mentioned as a potential 2028 contender, also criticized the strikes and accused Trump of ignoring Congress.

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“No justification, no authorization from Congress, and no clear objective,” Pritzker wrote on X.

“Donald Trump is once again sidestepping the Constitution and once again failing to explain why he’s taking us into another war,” he continued. “Americans asked for affordable housing and health care, not another potentially endless conflict.”

“God protect our troops,” Pritzker added.

Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro focused his criticism on war powers, arguing Trump acted outside constitutional guardrails.

“In our democracy, the American people — through our elected representatives — decide when our nation goes to war,” Shapiro said, adding that Trump “acted unilaterally — without Congressional approval.”

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JONATHAN TURLEY: TRUMP STRIKES IRAN — PRECEDENT AND HISTORY ARE ON HIS SIDE

Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro focused his criticism on war powers, arguing Trump acted outside constitutional guardrails. (Rachel Wisniewski/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

“Make no mistake, the Iranian regime represses its own people… they must never be allowed to possess nuclear weapons,” he said. “But that does not justify the President of the United States engaging in an illegal, dangerous war.”

Shapiro added that “Congress must use all available power” to prevent further escalation.

Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg also accused Trump of launching a “war of choice.”

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“The President has launched our nation and our great military into a war of choice, risking American lives and resources, ignoring American law, and endangering our allies and partners,” Buttigieg wrote on X. “This nation learned the hard way that an unnecessary war, with no plan for what comes next, can lead to years of chaos and put America in still greater danger.”

Buttigieg has been hitting early voting states, stopping in New Hampshire and Nevada in recent weeks to campaign for Democrats ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.

Sen. Ruben Gallego, D-Ariz., who has been floated as a rising national figure within the party, said he lost friends in Iraq to an illegal war and opposed the strikes.

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“Young working-class kids should not pay the ultimate price for regime change and a war that hasn’t been explained or justified to the American people. We can support the democracy movement and the Iranian people without sending our troops to die,” Gallego wrote on X. 

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Fox News’ Daniel Scully and Alex Nitzberg contributed to this report.

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From hostage crisis to assassination plots: Iran’s near half-century war on Americans
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Commentary: With midterm vote starting, here’s where things stand in national redistricting fight

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Commentary: With midterm vote starting, here’s where things stand in national redistricting fight

Donald Trump has never been one to play by the rules.

Whether it’s stiffing contractors as a real estate developer, defying court orders he doesn’t like as president or leveraging the Oval Office to vastly inflate his family’s fortune, Trump’s guiding principle can be distilled to a simple, unswerving calculation: What’s in it for me?

Trump is no student of history. He’s famously allergic to books. But he knows enough to know that midterm elections like the one in November have, with few exceptions, been ugly for the party holding the presidency.

With control of the House — and Trump’s virtually unchecked authority — dangling by a gossamer thread, he reckoned correctly that Republicans were all but certain to lose power this fall unless something unusual happened.

So he effectively broke the rules.

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Normally, the redrawing of the country’s congressional districts takes place once every 10 years, following the census and accounting for population changes over the previous decade. Instead, Trump prevailed upon the Republican governor of Texas, Greg Abbott, to throw out the state’s political map and refashion congressional lines to wipe out Democrats and boost GOP chances of winning as many as five additional House seats.

The intention was to create a bit of breathing room, as Democrats need a gain of just three seats to seize control of the House.

In relatively short order, California’s Democratic governor, Gavin Newsom, responded with his own partisan gerrymander. He rallied voters to pass a tit-for-tat ballot measure, Proposition 50, which revised the state’s political map to wipe out Republicans and boost Democratic prospects of winning as many as five additional seats.

Then came the deluge.

In more than a dozen states, lawmakers looked at ways to tinker with their congressional maps to lift their candidates, stick it to the other party and gain House seats in November.

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Some of those efforts continue, including in Virginia where, as in California, voters are being asked to amend the state Constitution to let majority Democrats redraw political lines ahead of the midterm. A special election is set for April 21.

But as the first ballots of 2026 are cast on Tuesday — in Arkansas, North Carolina and Texas — the broad contours of the House map have become clearer, along with the result of all those partisan machinations. The likely upshot is a nationwide partisan shift of fewer than a handful of seats.

The independent, nonpartisan Cook Political Report, which has a sterling decades-long record of election forecasting, said the most probable outcome is a wash. “At the end of the day,” said Erin Covey, who analyzes House races for the Cook Report, “this doesn’t really benefit either party in a real way.”

Well.

That was a lot of wasted time and energy.

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Let’s take a quick spin through the map and the math, knowing that, of course, there are no election guarantees.

In Texas, for instance, new House districts were drawn assuming Latinos would back Republican candidates by the same large percentage they supported Trump in 2024. But that’s become much less certain, given the backlash against his draconian immigration enforcement policies; numerous polls show a significant falloff in Latino support for the president, which could hurt GOP candidates up and down the ballot.

But suppose Texas Republicans gain five seats as hoped for and California Democrats pick up the five seats they’ve hand-crafted. The result would be no net change.

Elsewhere, under the best case for each party, a gain of four Democratic House seats in Virginia would be offset by a gain of four Republican House seats in Florida.

That leaves a smattering of partisan gains here and there. A combined pickup of four or so Republican seats in Ohio, North Carolina and Missouri could be mostly offset by Democratic gains of a seat apiece in New York, Maryland and Utah.

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(The latter is not a result of legislative high jinks, but rather a judge throwing out the gerrymandered map passed by Utah Republicans, who ignored a voter-approved ballot measure intended to prevent such heavy-handed partisanship. A newly created district, contained entirely within Democratic-leaning Salt Lake County, seems certain to go Democrats’ way in November.)

In short, it’s easy to characterize the political exertions of Trump, Abbott, Newsom and others as so much sound and fury producing, at bottom, little to nothing.

But that’s not necessarily so.

The campaign surrounding Proposition 50 delivered a huge political boost to Newsom, shoring up his standing with Democrats, significantly raising his profile across the country and, not least for his 2028 presidential hopes, helping the governor build a significant nationwide fundraising base.

In crimson-colored Indiana, Republicans refused to buckle under tremendous pressure from Trump, Vice President JD Vance and other party leaders, rejecting an effort to redraw the state’s congressional map and give the GOP a hold on all nine House seats. That showed even Trump’s Svengali-like hold on his party has its limits.

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But the biggest impact is also the most corrosive.

By redrawing political lines to predetermine the outcome of House races, politicians rendered many of their voters irrelevant and obsolete. Millions of Democrats in Texas, Republicans in California and partisans in other states have been effectively disenfranchised, their voices rendered mute. Their ballots spindled and nullified.

In short, the politicians — starting with Trump — extended a big middle finger to a large portion of the American electorate.

Is it any wonder, then, so many voters hold politicians and our political system in contempt?

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