Politics
Column: How RFK Jr. and other third-party candidates could swing the election and put Biden in real danger
This year’s presidential election campaign is likely to be remembered as a year in which voters pondered a rematch no one really wanted.
President Biden and former President Trump are likely to win their parties’ nominations. Yet a recent Associated Press-NORC poll found that 58% of Americans dislike the idea of Trump running again, and 56% are unhappy with Biden for staying in the race.
That gives an enormous amount of power to those who dislike both, the “double haters.”
That happened in 2016, when voters who disliked Trump and Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton broke in Trump’s favor. And again in 2020, when the double haters deserted Trump for Biden.
But this campaign has another wild card: independent and third-party candidates.
Early polls have found that when voters are offered a third choice, up to 17% grab it — enough to swing the election.
Those numbers don’t predict what will happen in November; in most years, the third-party vote shrinks rapidly as election day approaches. But they’re added evidence that voters yearn for choices different from the ones looming.
And that’s encouraged a burgeoning list of independent and third-party candidates: Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who made his name as an anti-vaccine militant; Cornel West, a prominent Black academic and socialist activist; Jill Stein, the probable third-time nominee of the Green Party; and perhaps most intriguing, a well-funded group called No Labels that hopes to field a ticket with a moderate Republican and a moderate Democrat.
That’s a problem for Biden more than Trump. Strategists in both parties believe some of the president’s current voters are more likely to desert him if they see an appetizing alternative. A Bloomberg-Morning Consult poll in seven swing states last month found evidence of that: 16% of Biden voters said they might vote for Kennedy or another independent candidate, while only 11% of Trump voters said they were tempted to take the third-party route.
Historically, no third-party candidate has ever won a presidential election, but several have succeeded in tipping the balance.
That happened in 1912 when Theodore Roosevelt, a former Republican running as the Progressive Party candidate, split the GOP vote and delivered the White House to Democrat Woodrow Wilson. And in 2000, when Democrat Al Gore lost Florida by 537 votes, arguably because Green candidate Ralph Nader collected more than 97,000 votes in the state. And in 2016, Hillary Clinton lost the key states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania by fewer votes than Stein collected in those states.
In last week’s average of polls compiled by the website Real Clear Politics, when voters are offered more than the two major-party candidates, Kennedy attracts about 14% of the national vote; West and Stein attract 2% each. (The No Labels proposal can’t be tested the same way because the group hasn’t named its candidates.)
The most important factor at this stage, however, is not those ephemeral voter preferences. It’s whether any of those third-party candidates can get on the ballot in the closely divided “battleground states” that will almost certainly decide the presidential election: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin.
“The national numbers aren’t important,” said Doug Sosnik, a longtime Democratic strategist who worked for President Clinton. “All that matters is how these candidates are doing in the states that will decide the election. That’s where a few percentage points can decide the whole thing.”
That’s why many Democratic strategists worry most about No Labels, the well-funded group that has a head start toward getting on the ballot in all 50 states. So far, No Labels has won ballot access in 14 states, including the battlegrounds of Arizona, Nevada and North Carolina. Stein’s Green Party is likely to get on the ballot in most states too.
Kennedy has qualified only in Utah. West’s prospects are uncertain; it is unclear that he has the funding or organization to mount a nationwide ballot-access effort.
Last week Third Way, a centrist Democratic think tank, issued a new warning to Democratic donors to steer clear of No Labels.
“Their own polling says they’d lose and be a spoiler for Trump,” Third Way Executive Vice President Matt Bennett said in an email.
No Labels contests that assertion and says its polling suggests that it could win enough states with 34% or more of the vote to assemble an electoral college majority. Political pros consider those simulations far-fetched.
It still is unclear whether No Labels will run a ticket at all. The group planned a convention this summer, then scrubbed it.
Still, if any of those third-party candidates get on the ballot in battleground states, they’ll present an added burden for Biden.
When a president runs for a second term, the election is normally a referendum on his record. Biden hopes to flip that script and win by turning the election into a referendum on Trump. Third-party candidates could disrupt that by offering anti-Trump voters an escape route.
That means Biden won’t be able to win solely by stoking fears of his predecessor’s return. He’ll need to present a solid case that the third-party escape route is just another way of electing Trump.
Politics
Susie Wiles Acknowledges Trump’s ‘Score Settling’ Behind Prosecutions
In interviews with Vanity Fair, Susie Wiles, the White House chief of staff, said Trump “has an alcoholic’s personality,” called JD Vance a “conspiracy theorist” and concluded that Pam Bondi “completely whiffed” the early handling of the Epstein files.
Politics
Trump admin defends White House ballroom as national security matter
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The Trump administration argued in a court filing on Monday that pausing construction on the new White House ballroom would undermine national security, citing a Secret Service declaration warning that halting work would leave the site unable to meet “safety and security requirements” needed to protect the president.
The declaration says the White House’s East Wing, demolished in October and now undergoing below-grade work, cannot be left unfinished without compromising essential security measures.
“Accordingly, any pause in construction, even temporarily, would leave the contractor’s obligation unfulfilled in this regard and consequently hamper the Secret Service’s ability to meet its statutory obligations and protective mission,” reads the filing in part.
The government’s memorandum was in response to a lawsuit filed last week in the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia by the National Trust for Historic Preservation, a nonprofit that says it advocates for preserving historic sites of national importance and protecting the public’s role in that process.
WALZ REPEATS DEBUNKED CLAIM THAT TRUMP CONSIDERS WHITE HOUSE BALLROOM ‘TOP PRIORITY’
An excavator works to clear rubble after the East Wing of the White House was demolished on October 23, 2025, in Washington, D.C. (Eric Lee/Getty Images)
The National Trust lawsuit targets key government officials responsible for overseeing the White House grounds and the agencies managing the construction project, including the National Park Service and the Department of the Interior.
It argues that pausing the Trump administration’s ballroom project is essential to prevent irreversible changes while the required oversight and public involvement procedures are carried out.
“Submitting the project to the National Capital Planning Commission for review protects the iconic historic features of the White House campus as it evolves. Inviting comments from the American people signals respect and helps ensure a lasting legacy that befits a government of the people, by the people, for the people,” said Carol Quillen, the president and CEO of the National Trust for Historic Preservation.
TRUMP UNVEILS VISION FOR EISENHOWER EXECUTIVE OFFICE BUILDING MAKEOVER
A McCrery Architects rendering provided by the White House of the exterior of the new ballroom. (White House)
The White House announced President Donald Trump’s plans in July to move forward with a 90,000-square-foot state ballroom that would cost an estimated $200 million. That figure has now risen to at least $300 million, and while the project is backed by some private donors, Trump has also insisted it will be funded “100% by me and some friends of mine.”
In its filing, the administration emphasized that key regulatory reviews are forthcoming, saying it plans to submit draft architectural drawings and materials to the National Capital Planning Commission and the U.S. Commission of Fine Arts in the coming weeks.
The government argued the lawsuit is premature because above-grade construction is not scheduled to begin until April 2026.
A McCrery Architects rendering provided by the White House of the new ballroom. (The White House)
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The National Trust, however, counters that the scale of the project makes early intervention necessary. In its lawsuit, the group argues that the 90,000-square-foot addition would dwarf the Executive Residence and permanently upset the classical balance of the White House’s design.
The complaint also cites an October statement from the Society of Architectural Historians, which warned that the proposed ballroom would represent the most significant exterior change to the building in more than 80 years.
Politics
Commentary: Trump’s callous political attack on Rob Reiner shows a shameful moral failure
Hours after Rob Reiner and his wife, Michele, were found dead in their home in what is shaping up to be a heartbreaking family tragedy, our president blamed Reiner for his own death.
“A very sad thing happened last night in Hollywood. Rob Reiner, a tortured and struggling, but once very talented movie director and comedy star, has passed away, together with his wife, Michele, reportedly due to the anger he caused others through his massive, unyielding, and incurable affliction with a mind crippling disease known as TRUMP DERANGEMENT SYNDROME, sometimes referred to as TDS,” President Trump wrote on his social media platform. “He was known to have driven people CRAZY by his raging obsession of President Donald J. Trump, with his obvious paranoia reaching new heights as the Trump Administration surpassed all goals and expectations of greatness, and with the Golden Age of America upon us, perhaps like never before. May Rob and Michele rest in peace!”
Then, in the Oval Office, Trump doubled down on Reiner.
“He was a deranged person,” Trump said in response to a reporter’s question about his social media post. “I was not a fan of Rob Reiner at all, in any way, shape or form. I thought he was very bad for our country.”
Rest in peace, indeed.
It’s a message steeped in cruelty and delusion, unbelievable and despicable even by the low, buried-in-the-dirt bar by which we have collectively come to judge Trump. In a town — and a time — of selfishness and self-serving, Reiner was one of the good guys, always fighting, both through his films and his politics, to make the world kinder and closer. And yes, that meant fighting against Trump and his increasingly erratic and authoritarian rule.
For years, Reiner made the politics of inclusion and decency central to his life. He was a key player in overturning California’s ban on same-sex marriage and fought to expand early childhood education.
For the last few months, he was laser-focused on the upcoming midterms as the last and best chance of protecting American democracy — which clearly enraged Trump.
“Make no mistake, we have a year before this country becomes a full on autocracy,” Reiner told MSNBC host Ali Velshi in October. “People care about their pocketbook issues, the price of eggs. They care about their healthcare, and they should. Those are the things that directly affect them. But if they lose their democracy, all of these rights, the freedom of speech, the freedom to pray the way you want, the freedom to protest and not go to jail, not be sent out of the country with no due process, all these things will be taken away from them.”
The Reiners’ son, Nick Reiner, has been arrested on suspicion of murder. Nick Reiner has struggled with addiction, and been in and out of rehab. But Trump seems to be saying that if Nick is indeed the perpetrator, he acted for pro-Trump political reasons — which obviously is highly unlikely and, well, just a weird and unhinged thing to claim.
But also, deeply hypocritical.
It was only a few months ago, in September, that Charlie Kirk was killed and Trump and his MAGA regime went nuts over anyone who dared whisper a critical word about Kirk. Trump called it “sick” and “deranged” that anyone could celebrate Kirk’s death, and blamed the “radical left” for violence-inciting rhetoric.
Vice President JD Vance, channeling his inner Scarlett O’Hara, vowed “with God as my witness,” he would use the full power of the state to crack down on political “networks” deemed terrorist. In reality, he’s largely just using the state to target people who oppose Trump out loud.
And just in case you thought maybe, maybe our president somehow really does have the good of all Americans at heart, recall that in speaking of Kirk, Trump said that he had one point of disagreement. Kirk, he claimed, forgave his enemies.
“That’s where I disagreed with Charlie,” Trump said. “I hate my opponent and I don’t want the best for them.”
There’s a malevolence so deep in Trump’s remarks about Reiner that even Marjorie Taylor Greene objected. She was once Trump’s staunchest supporter before he called her a traitor, empowering his goon squad to terrorize her with death threats.
“This is a family tragedy, not about politics or political enemies,” Greene wrote on social media. “Many families deal with a family member with drug addiction and mental health issues. It’s incredibly difficult and should be met with empathy especially when it ends in murder.”
But Trump has made cruelty the point. His need to dehumanize everyone who opposes him, including Reiner and even Greene, is exactly what Reiner was warning us about.
Because when you allow people to be dehumanized, you stop caring about them — and Reiner was not about to let us stop caring.
He saw the world with an artist’s eye and a warrior’s heart, a mighty combination reflected in his films. He challenged us to believe in true love, to set aside our cynicism, to be both silly and brave, knowing both were crucial to a successful life.
This clarity from a man who commanded not just our attention and our respect, but our hearts, is what drove Trump crazy — and what made Reiner such a powerful threat to him. Republican or Democrat, his movies reminded us of what we hold in common.
But it might be Michael Douglas’ speech in 1995’s “The American President” that is most relevant in this moment. Douglas’ character, President Andrew Shepherd, says that “America is advanced citizenship. You’ve got to want it bad, because it’s going to put up a fight.”
Shepard’s rival, a man pursuing power over purpose, “is interested in two things and two things only — making you afraid of ‘it’ and telling you who’s to blame for ‘it.’ ”
Sound familiar?
That our president felt the need to trash Reiner before his body is even buried would be a badge of honor to Reiner, an acknowledgment that Reiner’s warnings carried weight, and that Reiner was a messenger to be reckoned with.
Reiner knew what advanced citizenship meant, and he wanted badly for democracy to survive.
If Trump’s eulogy sickens you the way it sickens me, then here’s what you can do about it: Vote in November in Reiner’s memory.
Your ballot is the rebuke Trump fears most.
And your vote is the most powerful way to honor a man who dedicated his life to reminding us that bravery is having the audacity to care.
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