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Column: As bad as the war in Ukraine is now, it’s likely to get worse

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Column: As bad as the war in Ukraine is now, it’s likely to get worse

Final week, Russian President Vladimir Putin spent 90 minutes on the cellphone with French President Emmanuel Macron, who requested him to declare a ceasefire in Ukraine.

Not , Putin replied.

“He refuses to cease his assaults,” Macron wrote on Twitter after the decision.

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A French official mentioned Putin appeared decided “to take management of all of Ukraine.”

“The worst is but to return,” the official added.

Putin’s invasion of Ukraine is in its second week. Some Russian items are mired in mud, however the offensive is escalating total.

Because the invasion has escalated, so, too, have financial sanctions imposed by the U.S. and its allies. And, like Ukraine’s armed forces, the sanctions have had extra punch than anticipated. The Russian ruble has plunged in worth, and atypical Russians have scrambled to ATMs to attempt to get their cash out of endangered banks.

However the two escalations are removed from equal.

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The sanctions have clearly broken Russia’s financial system, however there’s no signal that they’ve affected Putin’s calculus.

Extra Russian items have moved into Ukraine. Russian missile and artillery strikes on civilian neighborhoods have stepped up. Ukraine’s three largest cities — together with Kyiv, the capital — are at risk of falling.

Ukraine’s defenders are combating courageously, however they’re slowly shedding floor.

“Sanctions could affect Russian resolution making down the highway,” mentioned Richard N. Haass, president of the nonpartisan Council on International Relations. “However they received’t cease the siege of Kyiv.”

The Russian president has waged struggle in opposition to cities earlier than and has been rewarded with success.

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Putin got here to energy in 1999 largely by waging a savage struggle in opposition to separatists in Russia’s principally Muslim republic of Chechnya. The ensuing marketing campaign killed tens of hundreds of civilians.

The lesson for Putin: Ruthless navy motion works.

“Each time you suppose, ‘No, he wouldn’t, would he?’ Properly, sure, he would,” Fiona Hill, a former White Home skilled on Russia, mentioned in an interview with Politico.

Putin’s intentions towards Ukraine ought to have come as no shock. He has publicly demanded since 2007 that the nation be returned to some type of Russian management. The CIA warned that he may invade Ukraine as early as 2008, Hill famous. (She was a CIA intelligence analyst on the time.)

“If he can, he’s going to take the entire nation,” she mentioned.

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Putin could not wish to occupy all of Ukraine’s territory, she added, however he could wish to divide it into “a fractured, shattered Ukraine.”

And he could also be keen to combat for a very long time. His struggle in Chechnya lasted virtually 10 years.

The Western response is aimed toward elevating Putin’s prices till he — or Russia’s navy brass, its oligarchs and the Russian public — resolve that their losses from the struggle outweigh any advantages. That, too, might take a very long time.

“Putin has proven little interest in a negotiated consequence that’s throughout the ZIP Code of actuality,” Haass instructed me. “That would change, however provided that three issues happen: if his navy suffers excessive battlefield prices, if the sanctions start to precise an actual financial value and if common unrest grows.

“Our coverage should be aimed toward bringing about these three situations.”

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Sanctions hawks argue that along with punishing Putin within the close to time period, the measures serve a separate long-term U.S. curiosity by weakening Russia economically and militarily.

“Sanctions will worsen Russia’s place in its long-run competitors with western international locations,” Edward Fishman, a former State Division skilled now at Columbia College, instructed me. “Now we have zero curiosity in enhancing Russian energy.”

He predicted that the sanctions would keep in place “so long as Putin is in energy, if not longer,” in “a long-term struggle of attrition.”

However an authentic objective of those sanctions was to influence Moscow to vary course. To perform that, america wants to supply Russians the prospect of no less than some sanctions aid in the event that they withdraw their forces.

That form of supply isn’t more likely to change Putin’s thoughts, but it surely might assist enhance stress on him from his navy and his oligarchs, in addition to the Russian public.

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“I can think about placing out — with the Ukrainians taking part — some definition of a negotiated consequence that might produce some sanctions aid,” Haass mentioned. “However we’re not there but.”

President Biden, for one, isn’t there but. His spokeswoman, Jen Psaki, mentioned final week that sanctions aid isn’t on the desk.

“We’re in the course of an invasion, so I don’t suppose now’s the second the place we’re giving anyone that form of an offramp,” she mentioned.

Translation: For now, either side are nonetheless escalating.

That French official was in all probability proper. The worst is but to return.

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Giffords group to spend $15 million to support Harris and anti-gun candidates

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Giffords group to spend  million to support Harris and anti-gun candidates

Gun control activists are ramping up spending to elect presumptive Democratic nominee Kamala Harris president and help Democrats capture the House of Representatives in November. 

GIFFORDS, a gun violence prevention group founded by former Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords, on Friday announced a $15 million campaign targeting battleground state voters. The ad buy is for television, digital advertising and direct mail, as well as for sending Giffords and surrogates to stump for Harris and down-ballot candidates who support tougher gun laws. 

“With just over 100 days until election day, GIFFORDS will redouble its efforts to support champions who are committed to saving lives — including ensuring that Vice President Kamala Harris becomes the next president of the United States,” said Emma Brown, executive director for GIFFORDS.

The multi-million dollar campaign will focus on swing states like Michigan and Arizona for the presidential election, and swing congressional districts in California and New York, which could determine control of the House of Representatives next year, NBC News first reported.

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Giffords speaks during a campaign event for Vice President Kamala Harris, Thursday, July 25, 2024, in Philadelphia. (AP Photo/Joe Lamberti)

“Across the country, Americans are crystal clear: they want elected leaders who stand up to the gun lobby and put public safety first,” said Brown.

GIFFORDS pointed to internal polling conducted in June that found 70% of American voters in battleground districts are “extremely” or “very” concerned about gun violence. The group argues that key groups of voters — particularly women, Latino and Black Americans — strongly support tougher gun laws and will make the difference in close races if motivated to get to the polls.

“This year is critically important, and we look forward to supporting allies committed to preventing gun violence at every level of government — from the state legislative level to Congress, and giving Vice President Harris effective governing partners when she wins in November,” Brown said. 

A Fox News poll conducted in June found that 45% of Americans ranked guns as an “extremely important” issue, making it the 7th most “extremely important” to voters out of a list of 10 issues. The highest-ranked issues were “Future of American democracy” (68%), “Economy” (66%) and “Stability and normalcy” (58%). 

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NRA DIGS UP HISTORY TO PUSH BACK ON KAMALA HARRIS’ CLAIM ON ‘ASSAULT’ BAN

Gabrielle Giffords

Giffords exits following a campaign event for Vice President Kamala Harris, Thursday, July 25, 2024 in Philadelphia. (AP Photo/Joe Lamberti)

Erich Pratt, the senior vice president for Gun Owners of America, a Second Amendment group, cast doubt on the contention that gun control is a motivating issue for large swathes of voters.

“It’s undeniable that the policies of Kamala Harris and this administration are responsible for the crime crisis our nation currently faces. Threatened confiscation of common self-defense firearms, coupled with soft on crime officials at the state and local levels in major urban centers across the country, have not helped Americans feel safe,” Pratt told Fox News Digital in a statement. 

“If groups like GIFFORDS really cared about reducing violence, they’d be urging Harris, a former prosecutor herself, to mobilize U.S. attorneys offices against violent criminals. But instead, they would prefer to push unconstitutional disarmament that leaves everyday Americans defenseless. That won’t play well with swing state voters.”

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Harris prepares to swear in Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ) with his wife Gabrielle Giffords in the old senate chamber for the Ceremonial Swearing on Jan. 3, 2023, in Washington, D.C.  (Tasos Katopodis/Getty Images)

Gabrielle Giffords, a former Democratic representative from Arizona, was grievously wounded in a 2011 assassination attempt when a gunman shot her in the head at an event in her district. The former congresswoman co-founded her eponymous group a decade ago to “end the gun lobby’s stranglehold on our political system,” according to the GIFFORDS website. 

Her husband is Sen. Mark Kelly, D-Ariz., who is reportedly one of the top contenders to be Harris’ running mate. 

Giffords appeared at an event for Harris on Thursday at the Salt & Light church in Pennsylvania, where she met with community activists in Philadelphia. The predominantly Black neighborhood where she spoke has been impacted by gun violence, including an incident last weekend in which three people were killed and at least six others wounded. 

Giffords spoke briefly about her long recovery from the shooting in 2011, which killed six people during a meeting with constituents at a Tucson grocery store. Harris’ other surrogates, including Pennsylvania House Speaker Joanna McClinton, framed the November presidential contest as a choice between Harris, who would sign a ban on assault weapons, and more gun violence under Republican Donald Trump, who gun-rights groups back.

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“We are overwhelmed with violence all across America from rural Pennsylvania to inner city neighborhoods like where we are today,” McClinton said. “We as voters can make a decision on having a more violent United States or safer communities in every part of America.”

Both Giffords and McClinton, an ally to Gov. Josh Shapiro, who is also under consideration for the Democratic vice presidential nomination — dodged questions about the veepstakes. Giffords aides told the Associated Press the event had long been planned before President Biden dropped out and endorsed Harris for his job, and certainly before her husband emerged as a potential candidate to run on the 2024 ticket. 

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

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Taking cue from Supreme Court, Breed to launch aggressive homeless sweeps in San Francisco

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Taking cue from Supreme Court, Breed to launch aggressive homeless sweeps in San Francisco

James Reem has lived in a tent on the corner of Fell and Baker streets for more than a year. An artist by trade, he said he was evicted from his apartment after troubles with his landlord and for a time lived out of a van. After the van got towed, someone gave him a tent and he turned to the streets.

His tent sits outside the city’s only DMV office, across the street from the Panhandle, a lush strip of greenery that opens into Golden Gate Park in a family-friendly neighborhood adorned by rows of manicured Victorians.

It’s a comfortable spot, said Reem, 59, with a sidewalk wide enough to accommodate his tent and still leave room for pedestrians. Some days, Reem is one of a dozen or more tent-dwellers on the concrete stretch.

“There are a few of us that stick together,” Reem said.

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“They’re not concerned about the homeless,” James Reem said of San Francisco’s plans for encampment sweeps. “They’re concerned about getting rid of us.”

(Hannah Wiley / Los Angeles Times)

His adopted neighborhood is among dozens of sites likely to be targeted as the city launches what Mayor London Breed has said will be an assertive campaign to force people off the streets in response to a June ruling by the U.S. Supreme Court.

An estimated 8,300 people are living homeless in San Francisco. And despite a years-long effort to move people into temporary shelter or permanent housing, unsanctioned encampments remain a widespread and visible problem, often accompanied by garbage, theft and open drug use.

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For years, Breed and other city officials said their hands were tied by decisions issued by the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit, which covers many Western states, that deemed it cruel and unusual punishment to penalize someone for sleeping on the streets if no legal shelter was available.

The U.S. Supreme Court reversed that decision in a pivotal June 28 ruling, saying that cities in California and the West may enforce laws restricting homeless encampments on sidewalks and other public property.

On Thursday, citing the ruling, Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom issued an executive order requiring state agencies to remove encampments in their jurisdictions. While the directive doesn’t require cities to follow suit, Newsom urged them to do so, characterizing the proliferation of encampments as a health and safety hazard that requires immediate action.

Breed, a fellow Democrat, has also embraced the ruling. She said last week that, armed with the high court’s decision, she will spearhead a “very aggressive” effort to clear homeless encampments beginning in August. She said the effort could include criminal penalties for refusing to disperse.

Breed was not available for an interview Friday, and her office has yet to provide details of what the sweeps will entail or where people living in tents are expected to relocate. Her spokesperson, Jeff Cretan, said some of those details would come into clearer focus next week.

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During a July 18 mayoral debate hosted by the local firefighters union, Breed acknowledged her decision to orchestrate sweeps was “not a popular” one but said it was a necessary step.

“We have had to move from a compassionate city to a city of accountability,” she said. “And I have been leading the efforts to ensure we are addressing this issue differently than we have before.”

She said the city has worked over the last several years to add shelter beds and disperse outreach workers to offer services and support. But even when outreach workers offer shelter, according to the mayor’s office, those offers are rejected nearly 70% of the time.

Rows of tents fill a plaza at a sanctioned homeless encampment in San Francisco.

San Francisco has experimented with sanctioned tent cities in an effort to address the needs of its homeless population.

(Carolyn Cole / Los Angeles Times)

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Breed’s crackdown is likely to offer headlines out of San Francisco that counter the narratives promoted by conservative pundits as Vice President Kamala Harris ramps up her presidential campaign. Her Republican opponents have long tried to paint Harris, who rose to political power in 2004 as San Francisco’s elected district attorney, as a California liberal whose policies have helped contribute to the surging homelessness and retail crime plaguing her home state.

But the Supreme Court’s ruling is proving divisive for California’s local Democratic leaders. More left-leaning Democrats, including Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass, say the decision will allow cities to criminalize homelessness without doing anything to address the root causes, including addiction and a dearth of affordable housing. It’s a sentiment echoed by homeless advocates.

“This order won’t reduce homelessness or deter encampments, but it will leave vulnerable people even farther away from home and health than they are today,” Sharon Rapport, state policy director for the Corporation for Supportive Housing, said in an emailed statement.

Whether San Francisco has enough shelter beds to accommodate the potential wave of people pushed off the streets is unclear. Since Breed took office, the city has expanded shelter beds from about 2,500 to nearly 4,000, her office said, and has expanded permanent supportive housing to about 14,000 slots.

The DMV encampment where Reem lives is one of several that city officials have cleared time and again, only to see it return days later. So far this year, the encampment has been cleared more than a dozen times, according to the mayor’s office.

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Reem says he feels safer outside than he does in an emergency shelter, where he worries about his belongings getting stolen. He said he would accept help from city workers. But he also said he thinks Breed’s plan is less about helping people like him than it is about clearing out tents that make the public uncomfortable.

“They’re not concerned about the homeless,” he said. “They’re concerned about getting rid of us.”

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Trump announces to crowd he 'just took off the last bandage' at faith event after assassination attempt

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Trump announces to crowd he 'just took off the last bandage' at faith event after assassination attempt

Former President Trump announced to a crowd Friday night he “just took off the last bandage” from his ear after an attempted assassination nearly two weeks ago.

The Believer’s Summit, hosted by Turning Point Action in West Palm Beach, focused on reaching voters of faith. Dr. Ben Carson, former HUD Secretary, preceded the former president.

“And we want to thank each and every one of the believers in this room for your prayers and your incredible support. I really did appreciate it,” Trump said.

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“Something was working. That we know. Something was working. So, I thank you very much. And I stand before you tonight, thanks to the power of prayer and the grace of Almighty God,” he added.

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“As I think you can see, I’ve recovered well. And, in fact, I just took off the last bandage off of my ear.”

Former President Trump, the 2024 Republican presidential nominee, speaks at Turning Point Action’s Believers Summit in West Palm Beach, Fla., July 26, 2024.  (Chandan Khanna/AFP via Getty Images)

The crowd roared with applause as the former president gestured to his injured ear.

I just got it off,” he clarified. “I took it off for this group. I don’t know why I did that for this group, but that’s it. I think that’s it.”

Trump’s speech included attacks against his presumptive Democratic opponent, Kamala Harris, calling the vice president “a bum.”

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“Three weeks ago, she was a bum, a failed vice president and a failed administration with millions of people crossing. And she was the border czar. Now they’re trying to say she never was,” the former president said.

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“If radical liberal Kamala Harris gets in and, by the way, there are numerous ways of saying her name, they were explaining to me. … I said, don’t worry about it.

“Doesn’t matter what I say. I couldn’t care less if I mispronounce it or not. I couldn’t care less.”

Dr. Ronny Jackson, the former White House doctor, released a letter earlier Friday offering an update on Trump’s health after the assassination attempt July 13 in Butler, Pennsylvania.

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Former President Trump, the 2024 Republican presidential nominee, speaks at Turning Point Action’s Believers Summit in West Palm Beach, Fla., July 26, 2024. (Chandan Khanna/AFP via Getty Images)

“I want to reassure the American people and the rest of the world that President Trump is doing extremely well,” Jackson said.

“He is rapidly recovering from the gunshot wound to his right ear. I will continue to be available to assist President Trump and his personal physician in any way they see fit and will provide updates as necessary and with the permission of President Trump.”

“What struck former President Trump in the ear was a bullet, whether whole or fragmented into smaller pieces, fired from the deceased subject’s rifle,” the FBI confirmed Friday to Fox News Digital.

Trump and running mate JD Vance, the Ohio senator, are scheduled to appear for a campaign rally in St. Cloud, Minnesota, Saturday.

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