Politics
Climate change is central to both Pope Francis and Newsom. But do Catholic voters care?
Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom’s speech on climate change at the Vatican this week gives him an opportunity to align himself and his party with Pope Francis, an influential figure among American Catholics and a leader in the fight against global warming.
But the California governor and the pope’s messages about reducing emissions may not sway American Catholics voting in the 2024 election, especially a monumental presidential contest that could alter national and global climate policies for generations.
Despite the high importance of elections to their shared climate concerns, the issue doesn’t historically drive the pope’s Catholic flock — or typical U.S. voters — to the polls. Catholics appear poised to back Donald Trump, a president who denies global warming and has threatened to reverse environmental protections, over a climate advocate in President Biden, according to a recent Pew Research Center survey.
“It’s not really a top tier issue,” said John K. White, an emeritus professor of politics at Catholic University of America. “But sometimes you have to put what you see as the interests of the country, and in this case, the world, ahead of how you think it’s going to play politically.”
Shortly before the governor boarded a plane bound to Rome on Tuesday, Newsom told reporters he plans to discuss the “leading initiatives” California has taken to address the crisis.
“No state has more to lose, not just more to gain, in terms of addressing climate change,” Newsom said at a news conference on mental health and homelessness in San Mateo County.
Pope Francis is the first pontiff to make climate change central to his papacy, and wrote a 2015 encyclical that relied on scientific facts about global warming to deliver a moral call to preserve the planet for future generations. He offered a second, more-aggressive decree last fall with another paper, called “Laudate Deum,” or “Praise God,” that challenged countries to protect God’s creation and commit to end the use of fossil fuels before it’s too late.
Pope Francis waves as he leaves after a meeting with elderly priests at the San Giuseppe al Trionfale Parish Church in Rome on Tuesday.
(Alessandra Tarantino / Associated Press)
The pope’s climate advocacy, however, has not been fully embraced by deeply divided Catholic voters in the U.S., who vote more like the general electorate than strictly theological voters.
“They have concerns about climate, but that doesn’t rank nearly as high as the economy and they tend to be much more ethnic voters certainly than theological voters,” said Mike Madrid, a Republican political consultant based in California.
Though the pope has been critical of Trump’s U.S.-Mexico border policies, he does not formally endorse one presidential candidate over another and avoids directly meddling in U.S. elections. He influences policy through his own advocacy, such as gathering governors and mayors from around the globe to the climate summit at the Vatican this week to testify about how climate change has affected their own communities.
American bishops, as a group, are more conservative than the pope and have been active in elections. Bishops voted last year to make abortion the church’s political priority in the 2024 election. Some bishops have embraced Trump, who made good on a campaign promise to overturn Roe v. Wade.
The U.S. Conference of Catholic Bishops considered voting in 2021 to refuse communion to Catholic politicians who support abortion rights, including Biden. The Vatican warned the conference against doing so and the bishops ultimately stopped short of a ban.
A pro-Trump faction of white Catholics feels threatened by the growing power of more liberal Latino Catholics within the church and resists the pope’s more-progressive policies, White said. They also tend to care more about abortion rights.
Latino Catholics, who favor Biden by a slim margin, are more concerned about the environment than their white peers, though the economy and immigration typically rank higher than climate change, according to White, Madrid and Pew data.
“They care about feeding their kids more than they are worried about these larger global issues,” Madrid said.
The views of Catholic voters are similar to the overall electorate. In a New York Times Poll conducted in late April and early May, U.S. registered voters ranked the economy as the most important single issue in the 2024 election, followed by immigration and abortion.
Aides to the governor say Newsom’s trip is focused on the existential worldwide environmental threat and isn’t a political calculation.
The governor is going to the Vatican as an evangelist on climate change and to testify about California’s experience and leadership, said Sean Clegg, a senior political advisor to Newsom.
“To be seen as a leader, and California is not just a national leader, but it’s really truly a global leader, you have to stand up and tell your story,” Clegg said.
Newsom’s predecessor, Gov. Jerry Brown, blasted former President Trump’s climate policies during a speech at the Vatican in 2017 that intentionally exposed the divide between California and the White House to the world.
Newsom is expected to call out climate skeptics and oil and gas companies that profit off the burning of fossil fuels, and demand that world leaders consider the grave implications of elections in the U.S. and abroad this year. But he is not expected to mention Trump by name in his address to the pope and international leaders.
Newsom will undoubtedly hype the state’s climate policies, including efforts to meet the goal of reaching carbon neutrality by 2045 and ambitions to phase out new gas-powered vehicles, and reference his own battles with oil companies. The governor will also offer testimony about the historic wildfires that have decimated California rural towns, floods that have ravaged picturesque coastal communities and years of drought that altered the state’s farmlands.
Outside the conference, Newsom is expected to sit down with the president of Italy and the mayor of Rome and travel to Bologna to sign a memorandum of understanding on addressing climate change. On a trip to Asia last fall, the California governor reached similar agreements with China, the provinces of Guangdong and Jiangsu, and the municipalities of Beijing and Shanghai.
For Newsom, meeting with the leader of the Catholic Church will almost assuredly enhance his national and worldwide political profile.
California Gov. Gavin Newsom speaks at a news conference Tuesday in San Mateo. Under mounting pressure to address the growing homelessness crisis in California, Newsom announced that his administration will make $3.3 billion available ahead of schedule for counties and private developers to start building more behavioral health treatment centers as part of his efforts to fund housing and drug use programs.
(Haven Daley / Associated Press)
The pope enjoys a 75% approval rating among U.S. Catholics and — whether it’s discussing Gaza, Ukraine or the environment — his voice extends beyond the church.
Pope Francis called out the U.S. in his “Laudate Deum” letter last fall, pointing out that its emissions per individual are about two times greater than China‘s and about seven times greater than the average of the poorest countries in the world, said Mary Novak, executive director of the nonprofit NETWORK Lobby for Catholic Social Justice.
Newsom’s trip to the Vatican also gives him a chance to promote the state’s environmental agenda just days after he announced a proposal to reduce spending on climate change in California by $3.6 billion to close a budget deficit.
Being seen as a leader on climate in a country that the pope has criticized could benefit the governor. Massachusetts Gov. Maura Healy and Boston Mayor Michelle Wu are also attending the conference.
“These are leaders who have been fighting climate change and [for] the transition to a clean energy economy for a very long time,” Novak said.
She added that it’s smart for the Pontifical Academy of Sciences to invite leaders who can address climate change in their own states and communities to the conference, which is geared around slowing global warming and reducing emissions but also adapting to the reality of rising seas and hotter temperatures.
Newsom’s visit could deepen his standing with climate activists and young people, who care more about the environment than their parents.
“Being seen with the pope is still beneficial,” White said. “The Holy See is an important player on the world stage, not only in climate change, but also in diplomacy.”
Times Staff Writer Anabel Sosa contributed to this report.
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HEBRON, KY – Ed Gallrein, the Republican congressional candidate backed by President Donald Trump who is challenging Rep. Thomas Massie of Kentucky for the GOP nomination, landed extra firepower on the eve of the state’s primary.
Gallrein, a former Navy SEAL and Kentucky farmer, was joined on the campaign trail Monday by Secretary of War Pete Hegseth.
Massie has long been one of Trump’s most vocal GOP critics in Congress and the Republican primary in Kentucky’s 4th Congressional District, in the northeastern part of the state, the latest test of Trump’s immense grip over the GOP.
“President Trump needs reinforcements, and that’s what war fighters do. They stand behind leaders and have their back,” Hegseth said at an event organized by America First Works, a Trump-aligned nonprofit political advocacy group.
TRUMP SCORES MAJOR PRIMARY VICTORY AS CASSIDY OUSTED IN LOUSIANA
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, right, joins former Navy SEAL Ed Gallrein, at an event on the eve of Kentucky’s primary, in Hebron, Kentucky on May 18, 2026. Gallrein is backed by President Donald Trump as he primary challenges Rep. Thomas Massie for the GOP nomination in the state’s fourth congressional district. (Jessica Sonkin/Fox News)
Massie, a libertarian-minded lawmaker who repeatedly takes aim at the president over foreign policy, including the Iran war and unconditional U.S. military aid to Israel, also successfully pushed for the release of government files related to convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein.
But Hegseth argued that Massie’s record is one of “too much grandstanding, too few great votes, years of acting like being difficult is the same thing as being courageous. It’s not. Real courage means stepping up when the mission matters most, when we need that tough vote to beat left-wing lunatic Democrats the most.”
“President Trump does not need more people in Washington who are trying to make a point, especially from his own party. He needs people willing to help him win, to vote with him when it matters the most,” Hegseth added.
Hegseth’s remarks, which came soon after a stop at nearby Fort Campbell to award medals for service members, were rare for the civilian head of the nation’s military. Defense secretaries have traditionally avoided appearing at political events.
Ahead of the stop, Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell said Hegseth would appear only “in his personal capacity” and that “no taxpayer dollars will be used to facilitate his visit.”
Hegseth noted the unusual appearance.
“I have to say up front, for the lawyers, that I’m here in my personal capacity as a private citizen, a fellow American, and a fellow combat veteran.”
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But Massie, who’s locked in a competitive clash with Gallrein in what’s become the most expensive congressional primary in history, claimed in a Fox News Digital interview on Monday that Hegseth’s stop “shows that I’m up in the polls. They wouldn’t be sending the Secretary of War to my congressional district if I weren’t.”
“I think it also shows I’m tougher than Iran, and I don’t even have a nuclear weapon. I mean, they are all in at this race. It’s basically a national race at this point, the most expensive race primary in congressional history, and that’s because, you know, I’m up there, I’m getting things done. I got the Epstein files released, I’m getting legislation in the farm bill, I’m getting legislation passed on the floor, and they want to shut me down,” Massie emphasized.
Gallrein, speaking with Fox News Digital ahead of his event with Hegseth, charged that Massie’s “running against President Trump, and the agenda that has been put forward by the Republican Party.”
Kentucky’s primary is being held two weeks after Indiana’s primary, where Trump-backed challengers ousted five sitting Republican state senators who last December teamed up with Democrats to defeat the president’s push for congressional redistricting in the GOP-dominated Midwestern state.
And the ballot box showdown in Kentucky comes three days after Republican Sen. Bill Cassidy of Louisiana was ousted as he sought renomination. The senator came in third in the primary, behind Trump-backed Rep. Julia Letlow and conservative Louisiana Treasurer John Fleming.
Cassidy’s political defeat came five and a half years after he voted to convict Trump after he was impeached by the House for his role in the violent Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol by supporters who aimed to upend congressional certification of former President Joe Biden’s 2020 election victory. Trump was acquitted by the Senate.
Massie said he “absolutely can” overcome the Trump endorsement of Gallrein. “I’ve got the groundswell here, like my events. I’ve got 100-200 sometimes 300 people show up. My opponent had to cancel events because he couldn’t get enough people, you know, to fill up a Dairy Queen, half a Dairy Queen.”
SCOOP: TRUMP-BACKED FORMER NAVY SEAL LAUNCHES GOP PRIMARY CHALLENGE AGAINST MASSIE
Republican Rep. Thomas Massie of Kentucky campaigns on the eve of his state’s primary, in Mason County, Kentucky on May 18, 2026. (Paul Steinhauser/Fox News)
The race has become the most expensive in House history in terms of ad spending, with over $32 million shelled out, according to the nationally known ad tracking firm AdImpact.
Much of that money has been shelled out by Trump’s allies and pro-Israel groups.
“Here’s the thing, I’ve got nothing against Israel. I just have never voted for foreign aid. When I said America First, I meant it. I don’t vote for foreign aid to Egypt, to Syria, to Ukraine. I’ve got a flawless record on this, and I’m not going to ruin it by sending foreign aid to one country,” Massie said as he defended his stance on Israel.
And Massie touted that while Trump’s allies and pro-Israel groups have spent tens of millions to take him out, he said, “I’ve got tens of thousands of grassroots donors who are funding me $50 at a time, $20 at a time. We’ve been able to match them to go toe to toe with them on TV using grassroots donors, and it’s really galvanized the nation.”
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U.S. Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY) leaves to speak with the media after the House voted 427-1 to approve the Epstein Files Transparency Act and the release of documents and files at the U.S. Capitol on November 18, 2025 in Washington, DC. (Roberto Schmidt/Getty Images)
Trump has repeatedly targeted Massie in social media posts in the closing days of the primary campaign.
The president said in a video posted to Truth Social on Monday that he hoped Kentucky voters would put Massie “out of business” and that “we’re in a fight against the worst congressman in the history of our country.”
And Trump praised Gallrein as “a great guy” and “a great patriot.”
But Massie said Trump’s taunts on social media may backfire.
“It shows he’s losing sleep, his reputation is on the line. He really shouldn’t have got involved in this race, because I vote with him 90% of the time,” the congressman said.
San José Mayor Matt Mahan’s run for California governor has been defined from the start by his donor list.
Mahan entered the race late and with little statewide name recognition, but catapulted into contention thanks to massive funding from billionaire tech titans, venture capitalists, cryptocurrency investors and other Silicon Valley elites. In a state with more than 23 million voters and hugely expensive media markets, the money signaled Mahan would be a contender.
It also spurred accusations from his more liberal Democratic competitors and powerful labor leaders that Mahan is beholden to Big Tech, including forces aligned with President Trump.
California Labor Federation President Lorena Gonzalez Fletcher recently described Mahan as “funded by Trump’s big tech billionaires,” while fellow Democratic candidate Tom Steyer — a billionaire running against corporate interests — called him “MAGA Matt Mahan.”
That framing has persisted, despite Mahan being a centrist Democrat who has publicly criticized Trump.
On Thursday, Mahan released a four-page “Plan to Hold Big Tech Accountable and Ensure AI Works for All Californians.” The proposal called for AI and data centers to pay for their power and water needs, fund workforce stability initiatives and ensure human oversight of AI tools in critical sectors such as healthcare. It also called for the state to use AI to become more efficient, to bar cellphones in schools and to require parental consent for kids 15 and under joining social media.
In an interview with The Times, Mahan, 43, said AI is “one of the most significant trends in society” and needs to be addressed.
He also rejected the notion that he would do Big Tech’s bidding, and the idea that his support from tech leaders is entirely or even largely premised on his plans for their industry.
“I’ve spoken very little about tech with any of my donors,” he said.
Mahan said his fundraising has instead been “centered on how we get California on a better path in terms of building housing, improving the quality of our public schools, solving our biggest problems,” which “just resonates with people in the tech industry.”
A ‘digital native’
Mahan, the son of a teacher and a mailman, grew up in the farming community of Watsonville but commuted to San José to attend high school at Bellarmine College Prep on scholarship as a low-income student. He went on to Harvard University, where he was student body president and classmates with Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg, spent a year in Bolivia building irrigation systems, and then taught for two years in Alum Rock as part of the Teach for America program.
He then joined Causes, an early Facebook application that allowed nonprofits to build grassroots support online, and rose to become chief executive. In 2014, he co-founded Brigade, a nonpartisan platform where voters could advocate for issues, which was acquired in 2019. He won a San José City Council seat in 2020, and was elected mayor in 2022.
An early mayoral profile described Mahan as painting a whiteboard behind his desk to “write on the wall as I did in my tech days.” Another noted he used ChatGPT to write speeches. A third recounted how he’d used AI to make city buses run faster.
Mahan said he learned as a startup leader and a classroom teacher that metrics matter — that “when we take our precious tax dollars and invest them in public services, we should measure our performance.”
He said he has always believed government should take the best tech has to offer while being vigilant about the risks it poses, which maybe comes naturally to him as a millennial who remembers “the world before the internet” but is also something of a “digital native.”
Donors explain
Between Jan. 1 and April 18, Mahan’s campaign raised nearly $13.5 million, according to state campaign finance filings. During the same period, an independent expenditure backing Mahan called Back to Basics raised about $22.7 million, while another launched by the group Deliver for California raised nearly $3.3 million.
The donors are a who’s who of tech leaders, venture capitalists and other leaders in the gig, gaming, digital media and AI defense fields.
Sergey Brin, the co-founder of Google, gave the maximum individual contribution of $39,200 to Mahan directly, and $1 million to the Deliver for California committee. Reed Hastings, the co-founder and chairman of Netflix, gave the maximum contribution to Mahan, plus $1 million to the Back to Basics committee.
Some donors, such as LinkedIn co-founder Reid Hoffman, who gave the maximum to Mahan, are well-known supporters of progressive causes. Others, such as Palantir co-founder Joe Lonsdale and crypto founder David Marcus, who maxed out to Mahan, are also Trump backers.
Brin, a friend of Gov. Gavin Newsom since the Democrat was mayor of San Francisco, has been moving rightward recently. He has donated to the Republican National Committee and in March was appointed to the White House tech advisory council. He’s also a major donor to the nonprofit opposing the ballot measure for a new tax on California billionaires — which Mahan also is against.
Brin, Lonsdale and Marcus did not respond to a request for comment. Hastings and Hoffman declined to comment.
Several other tech donors did speak with The Times — and universally described their support for Mahan as less to do with his tech policies, and more to do with issues important to all Californians.
Jamie Siminoff, who sold his home security startup Ring to Amazon for $1 billion and gave the maximum donation to Mahan, said he thinks L.A., where he lives, is the “greatest city in the world” and California is the “best state in the world.” But he sees Mahan as someone who could make improvements by bringing the state toward the political middle on public safety, housing and homelessness.
“He’s just like a nice, pragmatic, sort of centrist person, from what I can see, [who] wants to make California better, and I’m 100% behind that.”
Siminoff said it doesn’t hurt that Mahan speaks the same language as many tech leaders, who are mostly just “pragmatic inventors and entrepreneurs” who want California’s leader to be “principled in thinking about fixing things.”
Ruchi Sanghvi, the first female engineer at Facebook and a former Dropbox executive who state records show donated $25,000 to Mahan, said she has known Mahan since he was leading Causes but fell out of touch. When he entered the governor’s race, and she “got all these emails from people that I respect” saying they were supporting him, she asked for a meeting.
At that meeting, she said, Mahan “really dug in on some of the core issues that I care about,” including housing, homelessness and education.
The San Francisco resident, political independent and mother of three said the idea that tech leaders are backing Mahan because they believe he will scratch their back in business is wrong. Referring to his tech plan’s restrictions on social media for youth, she said, “I don’t think of that as scratching my back.”
Instead, “what really resonates with me and my peers is that, yes, he is pragmatic,” Sanghvi said. “He cares about measurable outcomes, which I think is very critical.”
Marc Merrill, co-founder, co-chairman and chief product officer of L.A.-based video game developer and e-sports company Riot Games, gave the maximum to Mahan, as did his wife, Ashley, founder of the sleepwear brand Lunya. In a statement to The Times, Merrill said he and his wife are lifelong Californians who love the state and support Mahan because of his record “addressing California’s most pressing challenges with practical, results-oriented solutions” in San José.
Merrill said Mahan brought down violent crime, reduced homelessness with “data-driven programs that address root causes rather than just managing the problem,” and “fostered an environment where businesses are choosing to invest and grow in the city.”
Tech vs. labor?
Gonzalez Fletcher said tech leaders have long “been very clear about their desire to support candidates who won’t regulate AI, to support candidates who will go after organized labor” — and their support for Mahan is no different.
She pointed as an example to a March event attended by Mahan and hosted by one of his most vocal backers: Garry Tan, a venture capitalist and chief executive of Y Combinator, a startup incubator in San Francisco.
At the event — which was part of Tan’s launch of a new statewide group called Garry’s List, which he has described as a “Rotary Club for radical centrism” — Chris Larsen, the co-founder of the cryptocurrency network Ripple, railed against the influence of unions in California politics and the “weak” response from business leaders, according to video.
“We’ve got to fight on par with the unions when they’re proposing stupid, job-killing ideas like the San Francisco CEO tax,” Larsen said. He noted that several other candidates for governor, including former Orange County Rep. Katie Porter, whom he’d donated to, had backed the measure to tax companies that pay their chief executive 100 times more than their average employee.
Neither Tan nor Larsen responded to a request for comment.
Gonzalez Fletcher, a former state legislator, said the argument that California Democrats have caused the state’s biggest problems by bowing to unions is false, and that what is more true is that “ruling class” Democrats such as Newsom “acquiesce to business interests” driving the state’s affordability and homelessness crises.
She said employers get away with underpaying workers and big landlords are allowed to take advantage of renters. She said Airbnb, as a tech example, has gone unchecked despite causing “a lot of the removal of housing stock.”
She said one reason she opposes Mahan is that he “suffers from the same love affair with Big Tech” as Newsom.
Steyer — who has funded his own campaign to the tune of nearly $200 million — has repeatedly struck a similar note.
Earlier this month, his campaign wrote that “Mahan continues to fail working Californians by catering to tech billionaires and wealthy special interest groups.” In February, it wrote that although Mahan had the support of “powerful special interests hellbent on keeping California a playground for the rich,” Steyer had the backing of “bus drivers, cafeteria workers, and custodians.”
Airbnb declined to comment but in the past has denied claims its platform substantially contributes to housing affordability issues, and has donated to housing initiatives. Airbnb co-founder Nathan Blecharczyk, a Mahan donor, did not respond to a request for comment.
Mahan said he values unions, in part because he grew up in a union household and benefited from the high-quality healthcare that provided, included when he was hospitalized for a collapsed lung as a teenager.
He said he has also worked with tech employers who “are inventing the future, quite literally,” and “creating a lot of jobs and opportunity.”
Mahan said the idea the two are inherently at odds is false, because “business needs labor, and labor needs business,” and the real question is “how to balance everyone’s needs.”
“If we don’t have a strong enough regulatory environment, and business has too much power, workers can be exploited, the environment can be exploited and we can see really negative social outcomes,” he said. “But the flip side is also true. If labor in our politics has too much power, you can also see distortions, you can see investment flow elsewhere, you can see less housing get built.”
Mahan said that “neither side has a monopoly on the truth,” and that government has to “bring people together and strike the right balance.”
He also defended Airbnb, which in San José pays taxes just like hotels, he said.
“We don’t see Airbnb as an antagonistic thing. We don’t let them take over the market, we regulate them, we charge them, and we use their tax revenue to provide services to people.”
He said the state’s housing crisis is due to over-regulation slowing new building to the point where it cannot keep up with job growth — which he called “fundamentally unsustainable and unfair” to low-income folks pushed out of job centers as a result.
The answer is building more homes, more quickly, he said, including by reducing building fees and streamlining permitting processes — which he said he has done in San José and would replicate statewide as governor.
“I am, first and foremost, focused on making government deliver results that make a real difference in people’s lives,” he said. “That’s my North Star.”
All 435 seats in the House of Representatives are up for election in November, but fewer than a tenth of those races are likely to be competitive. And that number has been dwindling.
One culprit? The nationwide redistricting battles, in which Republicans and Democrats across the country have resorted to creative cartography to draw as many safe seats as possible as they fight for control of Congress.
Based on 2024 presidential vote margin
Competitive districts lost with recent redistricting
Competitive districts — where a candidate leads a challenger by fewer than 10 percentage points — are increasingly rare. That is partly because many voters choose to live in communities with like-minded people, making many areas more politically homogenous and less competitive. And it is partly because parties are able to draw gerrymandered House maps, whittling down the number of swing districts even further.
“It’s a mutually reinforcing process,” said Eric Schickler, a political science professor at U.C. Berkeley.
Presidential candidates won about 28 percent of congressional districts with fewer than 10 percentage points in 2008. In 2024, that decreased to 20 percent.
Four swing districts vanished after Florida’s latest round of redistricting in April. Republicans redrew the state’s congressional maps. The new map retained only one district that would have been considered competitive in the 2024 presidential election.
Nearly 20 years ago, Florida had 14 competitive districts.
Florida
2024 presidential vote margin
2024 districts: 5 competitive
New districts: 1 competitive
+20 or more Harris
+10–20
Less than +10 Harris
Less than +10 Trump
+10–20
+20 or more Trump
Texas’ new maps shifted seats in favor of Republicans and in the process wiped out the only two districts that would have been considered competitive in 2024.
2024 presidential vote margin
+20 or more Harris
+10–20
Less than +10 Harris
Less than +10 Trump
+10–20 +20 or more Trump
Texas
2024 districts: 2 competitive
New districts: 0 competitive
Democrats have taken a similar route. Three swing districts disappeared in California when lawmakers redrew its map so Democrats could pick up seats.
2024 presidential vote margin
+20 or more Harris
+10–20
Less than +10 Harris Less than +10 Trump
+10–20
+20 or more Trump
California
2024 districts: 14 competitive
New districts: 11 competitive
Using presidential election results to analyze House races is far from a perfect forecast for the 2026 midterms. For one, voters don’t always cast ballots along party lines. And while voters overwhelmingly turned out for Republican candidates in 2024, the political environment in this year’s midterms is expected to favor Democrats.
But presidential results are a useful lens because of their high turnout and ability to offer a clearer view of partisan trends than congressional elections, which can be highly influenced by incumbency.
The lack of competition is bad for democracy, experts say. Voters have less of a reason to participate if races are not close, and they have fewer ways to force out leaders with whom they are unhappy.
“If you do away with competitive seats, you’re just going to get much less of a response when voters are dissatisfied,” Mr. Shickler said.
House members who occupy safe seats have fewer incentives to compromise or work across the aisle. Many can win by appealing to their party’s base, who are often more likely to vote in primaries.
That increases polarization and can lead to gridlock in Congress, according to experts. “We see that pretty well in our politics already,” said Asher Hildebrand, a professor of public policy at Duke University. “And we’re only going to see more of that as swing districts disappear.”
Mr. Hildebrand points to his home state of North Carolina, which went through two rounds of mid-decade redistricting within two years. Its legislature passed new maps in 2023 that left just two competitive districts. The latest map passed in October shifts one of those districts, currently represented by Don Davis, a Democrat, from one which Mr. Trump won by three percentage points in 2024 to one that he would have won by 12.
2024 presidential vote margin
+20 or more Harris
+10–20
Less than +10 Harris
Less than +10 Trump +10–20
+20 or more Trump
North Carolina
2024 districts: 2 competitive
New districts: 1 competitive
About half of voters in North Carolina voted for Kamala Harris in 2024. But only about a quarter of the state’s delegates are Democrats.
After the Supreme Court weakened the Voting Rights Act, and with encouragement from the Trump administration, Republicans in several Southern states — Louisiana, Tennessee, Alabama and South Carolina — have moved quickly to redraw maps in their favor. Democrats have threatened to do the same in blue states.
Use the dropdown below to explore how districts’ 2024 presidential election results have shifted in each state that has passed new maps.
+20 or more Harris +10–20
Less than +10 Harris
Less than +10 Trump
+10–20
+20 or more Trump
Note: A court has not yet approved Alabama’s use of a new map.
2024 districts: 1 competitive
New districts: 0 competitive
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