NEWPORT, R.I. (WPRI) — President Biden is down to a single-digit lead over former President Trump in Rhode Island, according to a new survey released Tuesday, while Gov. Dan McKee’s job approval rating has taken a hit.
The poll by Salve Regina University’s Pell Center surveyed 1,450 Rhode Island voters who said they are likely to vote in the November election, asking their current opinions about a host of incumbent elected officials as well as how they plan to vote in some key races this fall.
The poll shows a surprisingly close race for president in Rhode Island, a reliably blue state that has voted for the Democratic nominee every four years since 1988. The survey shows Biden at 40%, Trump at 33% and independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 12%, with about one in 10 voters undecided.
“I’m really kind of surprised at this number,” said 12 News political analyst Joe Fleming, who has been polling the state for years but was not involved in the Pell Center survey.
Biden’s weakness is due in part to his muted support among Rhode Island Democrats, only 72% of whom are supporting their party’s incumbent. That compares with Trump’s 87% support among Rhode Island Republicans.
Kennedy — a legendary political name in Southern New England — is backed by 8% of Democrats and 17% of independents in the survey. Among independents, the largest voter bloc in Rhode Island, Trump is winning 39% and Biden is winning 25%.
“It shows that there could be a closer race in Rhode Island than people expect,” Fleming said. “However, we’re still in June. And the one thing I know in Rhode Island from past history is Democrats tend to come home toward the end.”
The survey was conducted online and via text message by Embold Research, the nonpartisan arm of San Francisco-based firm Change Research, from June 5 to June 14. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 percentage points.
The president fared far better in a different poll of Rhode Island voters released by the University of New Hampshire last month. That survey showed Biden at 52%, Trump at 33% and Kennedy at 6%, with only 5% of voters undecided.
Biden won Rhode Island in the 2020 election with 59% of the vote, while Trump got 39%. The two men are set to face off in this year’s first presidential debate on Thursday at 9 p.m., the earliest TV debate ever since the practice began in 1960.
Biden’s weak showing against Trump in the survey is also reflected in his job approval rating. Only 42% of likely Rhode Island voters approve of the job Biden is doing as president, while 54% disapprove — including a whopping 44% who say they “strongly disapprove” of Biden’s performance.
Yet the lack of enthusiasm for Biden isn’t the same as enthusiasm for Trump. Among likely Rhode Island voters, 57% think the New York jury that convicted Trump in the recent “hush money” trial made the right decision, while only 35% believe the jury got it wrong, according to the survey.
Washington Bridge crisis weighs on McKee
Less than two years after winning a full four-year term as governor, McKee is getting low marks from Rhode Islanders in the Pell Center survey.
The poll finds only 36% of likely voters approve of the job McKee is doing as governor, while 54% disapprove. About one in three voters — 32% — say they “strongly disapprove” of McKee’s performance, compared with just 8% who say they “strongly approve.”
“He has to get out and sell what he’s been doing a lot better than he’s been doing so far,” Fleming said.
Opinions are even more negative about how McKee has handled the biggest crisis he’s faced in the last six months, the abrupt closure of the westbound Washington Bridge.
The Pell Center survey shows 59% of likely voters disapprove of how McKee has handled the bridge closure to date, while only 29% approve. Even among McKee’s fellow Democrats, just 43% approve of how he has managed the bridge crisis.
The survey shows 60% of likely Rhode Island voters believe the state is off on the wrong track, while 40% believe the state is headed in the right direction.
Under Rhode Island’s term-limit rules, McKee is eligible to run for another term in 2026 because his first two years as governor were spent finishing Gina Raimondo’s unexpired second term. In an interview last week on 12 News at 4, McKee indicated he is planning to run again.
“We have a Rhode Island 2030 plan,” McKee said, adding, “Everything being said — certainly not an announcement — but my intention is to kind of see that plan all the way through to 2030.”
Fleming said McKee and his advisers have reasons for optimism despite the survey results, pointing out that Raimondo faced low job approval ratings throughout much of her term yet still managed to win re-election in 2018.
“It’s way early on this,” he said.
Most other elected Democrats fared better in the poll than McKee and Biden.
U.S. Sen. Jack Reed, who is perennially the most popular politician in Rhode Island, took that crown once again. The survey shows 58% of likely voters approve of the job Reed is doing as senator, while only 28% disapprove. (Reed is next up for re-election in 2026.)
U.S. Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse, who is up for re-election this year, once again polled lower than his senior counterpart. The survey shows 48% of likely voters approve of the job Whitehouse is doing as senator, while 38% disapprove.
Rhode Island’s two freshmen congressmen — Gabe Amo and Seth Magaziner — are both in solid shape with voters as they prepare to seek re-election for the first time, though they remain lesser known than more veteran Democrats.
In the 1st Congressional District, 42% of likely voters approve of the early job performance by Amo, who won a special election last fall to succeed David Cicilline, against 27% who disapprove. In the 2nd District, 51% of likely voters approve of Magaziner’s job performance, versus 31% who disapprove.
Amo, who had never served in office before being elected to Congress, remains lesser-known than Magaziner. Almost one in three 1st District voters had no opinion about Amo, compared with only 18% of 2nd District voters who were unsure about Magaziner.
Lt. Gov. Sabina Matos has the lowest job approval rating of any elected official in the poll, following the signature scandal that rocked her failed congressional campaign last year. Only 27% of likely voters approve of the job Matos is doing, while 39% disapprove and 35% don’t know.
Democrats lead in RI races for Congress
The survey shows all the Democrats in Rhode Island’s federal delegation are in strong shape to win in November.
In the race for U.S. Senate, Whitehouse is backed by 48% of likely voters, while 34% say they will back “the Republican candidate.” (State Rep. Patricia Morgan and Warwick’s Ray McKay are vying for the GOP nomination.) Whitehouse won his last re-election race, in 2018, with 61% of the vote.
In the 1st Congressional District, Amo is backed by 50% of likely voters, while 29% support his potential Republican rival Allen Waters. In the 2nd District, Magaziner is supported by 47% of likely voters, while 33% back his Republican opponent Steve Corvi.
The Pell Center also asked voters a variety of questions beyond specific candidates and races. Katie Sonder, associate director and fellow at the Pell Center, who oversaw the poll, said: “These survey results paint a picture of a somewhat anxious electorate.”
While Rhode Island voters are patriotic about the nation — 71% said their American identity is “very important” to them, compared with only 40% who said the same about their Rhode Island identity — most are worried about the country politically. Among likely voters, 38% say U.S. democracy is “not at all” healthy and 22% say it is only “slightly” healthy, while 28% say it is “moderately” healthy.
Most likely voters think political polarization increased over the last year, and nearly half blame “disinformation and fake news” for that fact. More than one-third of voters say they actively try to avoid the news.
Ted Nesi (tnesi@wpri.com) is a Target 12 investigative reporter and 12 News politics/business editor. He co-hosts Newsmakers and writes Nesi’s Notes on Saturdays. Connect with him on Twitter, Threads and Facebook.
