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Pennsylvania’s post-2022 election audit, explained

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Pennsylvania’s post-2022 election audit, explained


This text is made doable by Highlight PA’s collaboration with Votebeat, a nonpartisan information group overlaying native election administration and voting. This text is out there for reprint beneath the phrases of Votebeat’s republishing coverage.

An individual approaches the desk and picks up a 10-sided die. She rolls.

4.

The following curler in line takes her flip.

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Seven.

The bizarre die, formed like an elongated diamond, could seem a curiosity besides to those that use it most: “board avid gamers and elections officers,” Jonathan Marks, Pennsylvania’s deputy secretary of state, mentioned.

However the rollers, workers of the Pennsylvania Division of State, will not be casting their cube to find out their subsequent transfer in Dungeons & Dragons. As a substitute, they’re producing a protracted, random quantity that may decide the course of Pennsylvania’s 2022 risk-limiting audit.

A risk-limiting audit is a kind of post-election overview designed to offer statistical confidence that an election end result was correct. This 12 months is the primary when all 67 counties are required to take part in considered one of these audits earlier than certifying their election outcomes.

The maths used to conduct the audit is out there to the general public, although practitioners agree it’s arduous to grasp. Elections officers who’ve used it mentioned the audit took time to grasp however they now trust in it, they usually hope it would give the general public extra confidence as effectively that election outcomes are correct.

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What’s a risk-limiting audit?

As the results of a settlement in a lawsuit introduced by Jill Stein, the 2016 Inexperienced Social gathering presidential candidate, the state was required to implement risk-limited audits statewide by 2022. However regardless of the contentious origin, many directors will now inform you they’re a fan of the method.

“On the core, it’s a take a look at to verify that the margin of a race was not overstated,” Marks mentioned. “What we like about risk-limiting audits from an election administrator perspective is … primary it’s environment friendly, and one of many different advantages is it’s adaptable. And that’s actually the massive key for me.”

Beneath Pennsylvania legislation, counties have lengthy been required after every election to carry out an audit of two% of all ballots or 2,000 ballots, whichever is fewer.

However that model of audit has its limitations. For instance, an election administrator may select to solely look at ballots from one precinct. Whereas that overview may uncover an issue with that particular precinct or the ballots solid there, it gained’t reveal a lot concerning the election as an entire.

A risk-limiting audit, alternatively, is particularly designed to test the margin of a race to make sure that the reported winner truly gained.

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It’s also “adaptable.” If a race has a better margin, the algorithm requires that extra ballots be checked to make sure the end result was right. If the margin is wider, fewer ballots must be checked.

The two% audit can be solely a neighborhood audit and never a statewide one, which means every particular person county is performing its personal audit that has no bearing on different counties, whereas the risk-limiting audit is a statewide endeavor that appears at contests as an entire.

“I believe county elections officers prefer it as a result of it solely requires them to do as a lot work as essential to verify the end result of a contest, whereas with a set proportion you’re doing the identical quantity of labor no matter the info about that election,” Marks mentioned. “In a single county [2%] could also be greater than sufficient, and in one other county, it will not be sufficient.”

One fan is Jeff Greenburg, Mercer County’s former longtime elections director and now senior adviser to The Voter Mission, a Pennsylvania nonprofit centered on voting entry. Greenburg ran one of many state’s first risk-limiting audits in 2019 as a part of a pilot program.

“[Getting] a 95% confidence stage would possibly imply you solely must depend a number of thousand ballots throughout the state,” Greenburg mentioned of how the adaptive portion works. “Logically, it doesn’t make sense. That’s one of many questions I keep in mind asking the state again in 2019. ‘How do I clarify to individuals if I depend 2,000 ballots versus 200, how do I clarify to them that 200 ballots is definitely giving me a greater quantity than the two,000?’ And that’s the place the mathematics is available in.”

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After going by the method, Greenburg acknowledged its worth, and the Division of State working group he was part of really helpful that the Pennsylvania legislature make the risk-limiting audit statutorily required. The legislature has but to take up that advice.

Solely 15 states at present carry out risk-limiting audits, and solely three of these statutorily mandate the method.

How does it work?

A random 20-digit quantity, referred to as a “seed,” is generated by rolling 20 separate ten-sided cube numbered zero to 9. This was carried out on a stay webcast by Division of State workers on Nov. 17.

At this level, uniquely numbered batches of ballots from all counties have been cataloged within the state’s risk-limiting audit software program. The seed is then entered into the risk-limiting audit algorithm to find out which ballots must be checked.

Mark Lindeman is coverage and technique director of Verified Voting, a nonpartisan elections know-how group that helps states together with Pennsylvania carry out risk-limiting audits. He mentioned whereas producing the seed quantity is totally random, as soon as that quantity is thought, anybody may double-check the work.

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For the reason that algorithm is open-source, which means it’s out there to the general public, anybody may use that data and the seed to make sure that the batches the algorithm dictates be counted had been truly those counted. Lindeman mentioned this additionally prevents any administrator from realizing forward of time, and probably manipulating, which particular batch will probably be counted.

As soon as the batches are identified, counties start their a part of the method: a hand depend of the ballots in every designated batch to make sure the end result was correct. The variety of ballots in a batch varies by county, relying on how directors manage ballots.

“The audit math is tolerant of small discrepancies usually noticed in hand depend audits,” Lindeman mentioned, like if a poll is miscounted by a machine resulting from a stain on the paper. “Small errors within the machine depend would haven’t any bearing on the end result, however massive discrepancies that increase doubts concerning the end result may make it essential to conduct additional auditing or doubtlessly additional investigation, together with a full recount.”

This 12 months, the Division of State chosen the governor’s race for the audit. For the reason that margin of victory between Lawyer Basic Josh Shapiro and state Sen. Doug Mastriano was very vast — practically 15% — few batches needed to be checked to make sure accuracy.

Nonetheless, all counties should be ready to carry out the audit, since it’s unknown which batches will probably be chosen.

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A spokesperson for the Pennsylvania Division of State mentioned that the seed dictated that 25 batches be chosen, which accounted for 10,209 ballots. These batches had been unfold throughout seven counties.

In Chester County, one of many state’s largest, elections administrator Karen Barsoum recruited six groups of three auditors every, with not less than one Democrat and one Republican on every staff.

Barsoum organizes her poll batches by precinct and vote kind (mail, in-person, and so on.) forward of the post-election interval to make sure a easy audit course of. The groups had seven completely different items of paper in entrance of them — every representing one of many selections within the gubernatorial race, together with write-in votes and situations the place voters chosen zero or multiple candidate.

“Initially, it’s unclear how lengthy it would final,” she mentioned of her system Friday morning, simply moments earlier than the audit was scheduled to begin. “It is determined by what number of batches the seed tells us to seize.”

For Chester County, it didn’t final very lengthy. No batches from the county had been chosen by the algorithm.

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“We’re dissatisfied,” Barsoum mentioned with a considerably dejected however contently resigned smile. She had gave the impression to be desirous to implement her well-organized, color-coded system.

“We had been all able to go.”

The counties that had been chosen have till Friday to add their outcomes.

Marks, the deputy secretary of state, understands that the risk-limiting audit will take time for individuals to grasp, however he hopes it would present Pennsylivians with not less than some measure of better confidence within the course of.

“I’m not deluding myself into believing that doing [risk-limiting audits] is essentially going to persuade each skeptic,’’ he mentioned. “However I’m hopeful over time, as individuals see it work and folks see it in motion, that they’ll perceive it. That’s definitely my expertise.”

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Pennsylvania

Pa. Senate passes bill encouraging school districts to ban students' phone use

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Pa. Senate passes bill encouraging school districts to ban students' phone use


Pennsylvania’s Senate on Wednesday approved a bill to encourage school districts to start a pilot program that effectively bans students’ use of cellphones during the school day in an effort to improve their mental health and academic performance.

The bill, which passed 45-5, would authorize grants to school districts to buy locking bags after the district creates a policy requiring students to leave their phones in such bags for the whole school day. It now goes to the state House for consideration.

The bill’s sponsor, Republican state Sen. Ryan Aument of Lancaster, said he hopes that limits on phone use will result in improvements in students’ mental health and academic performance.

“Kids spend so much time on social media and using their smartphones that it’s taking a toll on them mentally, emotionally and academically. Smartphone restrictions have proved successful in reversing these trends,” Aument said.

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Pennsylvania

PA Bars, Restaurants On Verge Of Extending Happy Hours

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PA Bars, Restaurants On Verge Of Extending Happy Hours


HARRISBURG, PA — Pennsylvania bars and restaurants soon will likely be able to offer patrons longer happy hours and combo meals that include alcoholic beverages.

Legislation that has passed the House and Senate would nearly double the weekly limit for happy hours from 14 to 24 hours. The bill, now awaiting Gov. Josh Shapiro’s signature, also would allow bars and restaurants to provide discounts on as many as two daily food and drink combination specials.

Additionally, it would permit the cost of up to two drinks to be included in the admission price for parties establishments sponsor for sporting and other special events.

Further changes would include making permanent the expanded outdoor seating that originated during the pandemic and allow employees to work in multiple licensed liquor establishments.

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The provisions, included in the bill sponsored by Rep. Matt Gergely, D-Allegheny, is designed to assist bars and eateries still attempting to financially recover from the pandemic and aid them with overcoming persistent staffing challenges.

The bill was applauded by the Pennsylvania Licensed Beverage and Tavern Association.

“It’s well known that happy hours are used to pull customers into establishments through special drink offerings,” Chuck Moran, the industry organization’s executive director, said in a statement.

“By increasing the total hours per week, we’re hopeful that through creative marketing each establishment will be able to use this tool to attract more patrons.”



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Pennsylvania

GOP turns the spotlight on Sen. Bob Casey's family ties in key Pennsylvania race

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GOP turns the spotlight on Sen. Bob Casey's family ties in key Pennsylvania race


Bob Casey Jr. rode a wave of reform to the U.S. Senate in 2006, standing out with other Democrats who vowed to end a culture of scandal and self-dealing in Washington, D.C.

A fixture of Pennsylvania politics whose late father had served as governor, Casey unveiled an ethics plan at the restaurant formerly owned by disgraced lobbyist Jack Abramoff. He later seethed over an ad in which his Republican opponent questioned his integrity.

Nearly two decades later, Casey faces a tough fight for a fourth term, along with accusations that friends and family have benefited from his political career. In a family with a brand name in Pennsylvania politics, several Casey siblings have seen their own politics-adjacent careers intersect with the senator’s.

There’s a brother who registered to lobby for a semiconductor manufacturer soon after Casey supported a bill to expand opportunities for the industry. There’s another brother whose law partner helps Casey recommend federal judges and whose firm’s employees have donated more than $225,000 to Casey’s campaigns, according to Federal Election Commission documents. And there’s a sister whose printing company has received more than a half-million dollars’ worth of work from Casey’s campaigns, records show.

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Casey, 64, is not accused of breaking any laws or violating ethics rules. But GOP operatives working to unseat him in one of the country’s top Senate races this year are calling attention to those and other family ties. The National Republican Senatorial Committee has also compared Casey to President Joe Biden, whose family members have been accused of trading on their famous last name.

“It’s called the Casey Cartel,” the narrator says in an ad from the NRSC. “Because, like Biden, Bob Casey gets elected, and his family gets richer.”

The senator’s defenders point to a long commitment to ethics reform, including his crusade against influence peddling and revolving-door practices involving members of Congress, their staffers and Washington’s K Street lobbying firms. Elements of the plan Casey pushed as a candidate in 2006 made it into a bill signed into law by then-President George W. Bush.

Casey also voiced support eight years ago for former President Donald Trump’s “drain the swamp” push for a five-year lobbying ban on former executive branch officials. 

In a written statement for this article, Casey campaign manager Tiernan Donohue characterized the GOP messaging as “baseless attacks” and a “blatant attempt to distract” from potential liabilities for his Republican opponent, Dave McCormick. Donohue noted past media scrutiny over McCormick’s campaign finance practices, as well as Bridgewater Associates’ investments in Chinese companies during McCormick’s time running the hedge fund. McCormick has acknowledged his work at the hedge fund while campaigning on proposals for tougher restrictions on U.S. investments in China. 

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“Senator Bob Casey is known across the Commonwealth for his commitment to high ethical standards and quality public service,” Donohue said in the statement.

The case the GOP is prosecuting against Casey mirrors a playbook that the party is using against other vulnerable Democrats this year with partisan control of the Senate up for grabs. 

Sen. Jon Tester of Montana, facing a challenge from former aerospace executive Tim Sheehy, has come under scrutiny for his relationships with lobbyists. Sen. Sherrod Brown, who is running against businessman Bernie Moreno in Ohio, faced questions in a HuffPost story this year about how his pro-labor record squares with support for a merger involving the Kroger grocery chain. Democrats, meanwhile, have branded McCormick and other GOP Senate candidates as wealthy elitists with unscrupulous business practices, from Sheehy’s work in aerial firefighting to Moreno’s days as a car salesman.

“Bob Casey and his family have displayed a pattern of corruption that should infuriate Pennsylvanians,” NRSC spokesperson Philip Letsou said. “Pennsylvanians are struggling to get by but career politician Bob Casey’s top priority seems to be enriching his family.” 

Defeating Casey this fall won’t be easy. He won each of his three Senate terms by comfortable margins and is respected across the aisle. McCormick, meanwhile, has been criticized for the time he spends at a rental home in Connecticut.

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“I’m true to my core, a Keystone State guy. I’ve known the Casey family, and the pride in the Casey family in this state is huge,” Scott Hoeflich, who served as chief of staff to the late Pennsylvania Sen. Arlen Specter, the former Republican who became a Democrat while serving with Casey, said in an interview. “Bob Casey Jr. is a great guy. … He’s always been an upstanding public servant with the highest integrity standards.”

Several of the Casey family ties that Republicans are scrutinizing have been covered by other news organizations in recent years. And some of the connections appear more coincidental or more at arm’s-length than others. None of the family members mentioned in this article responded to requests for comment.

Casey’s brother-in-law, Patrick Brier, registered in 2022 as a state lobbyist for Keystone First, a company that was being audited in a federal investigation of Medicaid managed care providers that Casey had called for in his role as the ranking Democrat on the Senate Committee on Aging. The connection was first reported by Broad + Liberty, a right-leaning Pennsylvania outlet. There is no record that Brier ever lobbied for the company at the federal level. The audit report, released six months after Brier began lobbying for the company, was critical of Keystone First, finding that the company “did not comply with Federal and State requirements” when denying dozens of requests for care or service. 

One of Casey’s brothers, Patrick Casey, registered to lobby the Senate on behalf of a semiconductor company in late 2022 — a move first reported by Politico. His disclosure statement noted that his work focused on U.S. semiconductor policy and implementation of the CHIPS and Science Act, which had passed earlier that year. In January, Patrick Casey’s firm reported that he was no longer lobbying for the client.

“Pat Casey is not lobbying Senator Casey’s office,” Casey spokesperson Mairead Lynn said in an emailed statement. “Senator Casey supported and voted for the 2007 law prohibiting family members from lobbying Senate offices, and he abides by that law.”

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Away from the lobbying scene, Casey’s state and federal campaigns have spent nearly $600,000 with Universal Printing Co., the Scranton-area print shop run by the senator’s sister, Margi McGrath, who identifies herself as the company’s CEO and business owner, according to FEC records. McGrath and her husband, William, a Universal executive, have donated more than $50,000 to Casey’s campaigns and affiliated PACs over the years, records show. The New York Post first reported on Casey’s use of his sister as a campaign vendor last year.

Casey, who before being elected to the Senate served as a state auditor general and treasurer and lost a 2002 primary for governor, paid Universal more than $255,000 for work on those campaigns, according to state documents. The $325,000 his Senate fund has paid his sister’s firm accounts for a third of his campaign printing expenditures and roughly 15% of Universal’s $2.1 million in federal campaign work since 2005, records show. Universal’s political client list has included the Democratic National Committee and several presidential campaigns.

Hiring a relative for campaign services is legal, so long as the campaign pays fair market value for the services, said Kedric Payne, the vice president, general counsel and senior director for ethics at the Campaign Legal Center, a nonpartisan voter advocacy group.

“In this situation where you have someone who not only has other clients who they provide these services for, but they seem to be providing legitimate services to that member, it would be difficult to argue that there is a violation,” said Payne, who saw no legal jeopardy in the other issues that Republicans have raised against Casey.

Casey has also forged close political ties with Ross Feller Casey, a personal injury law firm co-founded by his brother, Matt Casey. The firm’s employees have donated more than $225,000 to Casey’s campaigns since 2005, according to campaign finance disclosures first reported by the New York Post. The firm also contributed $100,000 in 2017 to PA Values, a super PAC that at the time was backing Casey’s re-election campaign. The firm has not donated since then to the super PAC, which remains active, having recently produced an ad that uses former President Donald Trump’s words in a misleading way to discourage voting by mail.

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Sen. Casey has called on one of Ross Feller Casey’s other founding partners, Robert Ross, frequently over the years to lead committees that screen candidates for federal judicial nominations, according to news releases from his office. Senators from the sitting president’s party typically have the most influence when recommending nominees. During the Obama administration, Casey continued a tradition, established under his Republican predecessors, of running a bipartisan vetting process that gave his GOP counterparts the ability to pick screening committee members.

Ross did not respond to questions for this article.

Defenders of the process, including Republicans, assert that it has yielded quality judges. Former Sen. Pat Toomey, a Republican who succeeded Specter, has spoken highly of the work he and Casey did together.

“The bipartisan, nonpartisan nominating committee has been and is the gold standard for how senators should vet and nominate candidates to the U.S. courts,” Hoeflich, the former Specter aide, said when asked about GOP attacks on the process. “This is politics at its worst — trying to manipulate the information to create false narratives and distract people from the real issues.”

Others offered differing views. One source familiar with Toomey’s role in the process recalled it as being more tilted in Casey’s favor during the Obama years and argued that Toomey’s picks for the screening panels had more serious legal chops, while a former Toomey staffer had a more favorable recollection of Casey’s work. Both requested anonymity to share their insights.

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“We were proud of the process,” the second source said. “I think that bears out when you look at all the judgeships we were able to fill in a pretty timely manner, and they were all high caliber.”

A former senior staffer to former Sen. Rick Santorum, the Republican whom Casey unseated in 2006, said GOP operatives are making “much ado about nothing” with their attacks.

“I’ve never, ever questioned Bob Casey’s ethics, even when he was our opponent in that ’06 election,” said the staffer, who requested anonymity to share candid opinions about GOP messaging. “I never found the Caseys to be anything other than stand-up people.”



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