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Lowman S. Henry: Battleground Pennsylvania turning purple?

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Lowman S. Henry: Battleground Pennsylvania turning purple?


At a glance, it would appear Pennsylvania Democrats are poised for a big year in 2024. After posting a landslide win in the 2022 gubernatorial election and flipping a U.S. Senate seat long held by Republicans, and then sweeping all four of this year’s statewide judicial races the party is riding high.

Yet, a New York Times/Siena College poll conducted in late October found former President Donald Trump leading President Joe Biden in a hypothetical match-up of 48% to 44%. Trump likewise posted significant leads in five of six battleground states trailing only in Wisconsin.

Given the Democrats’ recent string of electoral victories in Pennsylvania, the Trump lead in the polls seems to be an outlier. But is it?

The bottom line is that when you have seen one election you have seen one election. Each election year has a Rubik’s Cube of factors with even the electorate itself comprised differently.

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At this early stage in the 2024 election cycle, two factors appear to be buoying Republicans: pervasive voter dissatisfaction with the status quo — especially the economy — and a rapidly dwindling statewide Democratic voter registration edge.

In the November 2020 General Election in which President Biden carried the state by 81,660 votes, Democrats held a 685,818 voter lead in registration. By the November 2022 General Election that lead had fallen to 549,568. The Democrat slide continued in 2023 as the voter registration margin narrowed to 446,704 voters. Thus entering 2024 the Democrat voter registration edge has declined by 239,114 voters — far larger than the Biden 2020 victory margin.

Gov. Josh Shapiro has continued Democrat efforts to tinker in the electoral process bypassing the legislature to implement by executive fiat an automatic voter registration component to the obtaining of driver licenses. Even that move failed to change the trajectory of voter registration in the state.

A series of recent polls has revealed a grouchy electorate. This is the season of voter discontent. The New York Times/Sienna poll found 68% of Pennsylvania voters saying the nation is headed in the wrong direction, just 21% think we are on the right track. A September poll by the Commonwealth Foundation found that 72% of Pennsylvanians think the country has fundamentally gotten off on the wrong track, and 22% think we are headed in the right direction.

An October poll conducted by Franklin & Marshall College found 50% of respondents are economically worse off than they were a year ago and 35% expect to be worse off a year from now. Fifty-five percent in that poll said the state is “off on the wrong track” citing concerns over high inflation and the economy.

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The Fall 2023 Keystone Business Climate Survey conducted by the Lincoln Institute found the owners and top-line executives of Pennsylvania businesses to be in a similarly sullen mood. Forty-five percent said business conditions in Pennsylvania have gotten worse over the past six months; just 16% thought conditions had improved. Another 36% reported that business conditions had remained about the same. Past polls also found business conditions had worsened, so “about the same” means not good.

The depth of dissatisfaction among the business leaders was reflected in job approval ratings where all major elected officials including President Biden, U.S. Sens. Robert P. Casey Jr. and John Fetterman were viewed negatively and by a substantial margin. Only Governor Josh Shapiro managed to post a positive job approval rating. Even institutions — including both houses of Congress and the state legislature along with the federal and state supreme courts earned strongly negative job performance numbers.

An additional factor that contributed to the Democratic sweep of statewide judicial offices this year is the issue of abortion. For decades Democrats demagogued Social Security scaring senior citizens into thinking Republicans were going to take away their benefits. Think of the ad depicting former U.S. House Speaker Paul Ryan pushing grandma’s wheelchair off a cliff.

Since the U.S. Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision returning the issue of abortion to the states, Democrats have distorted the abortion issue to their electoral advantage. In 2023 that issue dominated the statewide campaign. But, in 2024 personalities will take center stage and there is no bigger personality than Donald Trump.

If Trump and Biden are their respective party nominees the personality comparison will play largely to the Republican’s advantage — particularly if Biden’s obvious decline in mental and physical ability continues to manifest itself. How that will impact down-ballot races for U.S. Senate and Congress remains to be seen.

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And so, as the 2024 election cycle officially gets underway the Rubik’s Cube will spin once again. The only certainty is that it is going to be interesting. Very interesting.


Lowman S. Henry is Chairman & CEO of the Lincoln Institute and host of the weekly American Radio Journal and Lincoln Radio Journal. His email address is lhenry@lincolninstitute.org



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Pennsylvania

Books and coffee? Both shine at Pressed in Erie, Pennsylvania

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Books and coffee? Both shine at Pressed in Erie, Pennsylvania


Independent bookstores are the heartbeats of their communities. They provide culture and community, generate local jobs and sales tax revenue, promote literacy and education, champion and center diverse and new authors, connect readers to books in a personal and authentic way, and actively support the right to read and access to books in their communities.

Each week we profile an independent bookstore, sharing what makes each one special and getting their expert and unique book recommendations.

This week we have Pressed in Erie, Pennsylvania!

What’s your store’s story?

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Founded in Erie, Pennsylvania in 2018, our goal is to encourage others to step away from their device and enjoy the feel, smell, and look of a book, paired with a comforting coffee. We love it when customers take their time checking out what’s new (or old!), and have a lovely time reconnecting with their senses as they explore the books and gifts in our shop.

What makes your independent bookstore unique?

Customers love the vibe in our store. It’s modern and upbeat, but with good old-fashioned books in the spotlight! They’re encouraged to take their coffee or warm drink (from our full-service coffee shop) and explore. 

We’re known for a curated but wide variety of reading genres, along with fun literary gifts (staff take real pleasure in hearing customers laugh out loud as they peruse the store), as well as our large kids’ area, with our famous reading tree. We’re proud to do our part to make Erie a vibrant and interesting city, something more than just a cluster of big-box stores.

What’s your favorite section in your store?

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My favorite section is the front, where all the best displays are and where we greet our customers. But a close second is the kids’ room — the reading tree and the moss-covered cobblestone look of the carpet are so inviting!

Why is shopping at local, independent bookstores important?

People vote for what they want in their community with their dollars. If they like having indie bookstores in their town, they simply must spend money there. Spending money elsewhere is exactly like submitting a vote for the indie to close. As long as people understand what they’re doing when they choose not to shop local, I have no problem with it. But if people want that local shop to stay, because it adds value and personality to their town and because they enjoy shopping there, they have to be okay with spending a few extra dollars on a book there. That’s the bottom line. 

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Check out these books recommended from Pressed owner, Tracey Bowes:

  • “Z: A Novel of Zelda Fitzgerald” by Therese Anne Fowler. It’s a page turner, well-written, entertaining and informative, and often hasn’t yet been read. 
  • “We Should All Be Feminists” by Chimamanda Ngozi Adichie
  • “The Women” by Kristin Hannah
  • “The Fury” by Alex Michaelides



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Criminal charges for climate pollution? Some argue a Pa. law would apply

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Criminal charges for climate pollution? Some argue a Pa. law would apply


While Braman agrees it would be difficult to take on as a prosecutor, he said that could change as more young people move into positions of influence.

“As the catastrophes escalate and as young people who face their entire future in an environment dominated by increasing climate harms, [and] start to join the jury pool, start to become prosecutors, start to become judges and start to become shareholders, I think that the writing’s on the wall,” Braman said, “and I hope that everybody, including everyone inside fossil fuel companies, starts to pay attention to that.”

But Weber said prosecutors would still have to convince a judge or jury to convict beyond a reasonable doubt.

Fossil fuel companies have permits to conduct their business, essentially government permission to do what they are doing, another way for the company to defend itself in court.

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If the companies are charged and convicted of risking or causing a catastrophe, the fines are in the range of $15,000 to $25,000 per count, Weber said.

“Is that going to deter a multimillion dollar company? Is that going to interfere with the operation of their business and the money that they’re making? I don’t think so,” Weber said. “I mean, did Energy Transfer go out of business by that criminal prosecution?”

“Maybe you put the CEO in jail,” Weber said. “And do you think that the other fossil fuel companies are going to say, ‘That guy went to jail, so we shouldn’t do what we’re doing anymore’? No, they’re going to do what drug dealers do. Drug dealers say, ‘Well, that guy got caught for drug dealing because he’s stupid. We’re not stupid.’”

 ‘Win by losing’

Environmental attorney Rich Raiders said there are a lot of questions with the strategy, but says the article does serve an important purpose.

“The idea behind these articles isn’t necessarily to come to an answer, but to get people to start thinking about how to address a question. And in that respect, it does that and it does it well,” Raiders said.

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Raiders represented homeowners who sued Energy Transfer over the Mariner East pipeline construction. He said a case like this would be a battle of the experts, but there are fundamental questions the article does not address about whether the charges would stick.

“What do you have to show responsible for climate change to meet the definition of a catastrophe?” Raiders said. “What is that level of threshold that you have to show before you can write a complaint that actually can survive objections? And how do you prove that it was the fossil fuel emissions caused by the marketing aspects of these companies to get you far enough that you can meet this definition? We don’t know.”

Raiders said the goal of this type of prosecution could be to get a large settlement, similar to what happened with the tobacco companies settlement or a previously proposed Sackler family settlement over opioids.

In that case, it makes sense to bring a case where you “win by losing.”

“And maybe that’s what a case like this does. It’s not necessarily to win the case, but it’s to move the needle,” Raiders said.

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For example, he said it could get the legislature to take action. But it also requires someone willing to lose.

“I think this is an interesting discussion in the long term for how to get people to think about the problem,” Raiders said. “And as a thought piece it does have some merit. But will you see something like that filed in the next 12 months? No, not anytime soon.”

Braman, one of the co-authors of the piece, is more optimistic.

“We desperately need some kind of solution that will allow the public to hold these massive corporate criminal actors accountable and have them really address the harms that they’re generating,” he said.

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Cash reward offered for information leading to Pennsylvania cold case homicide resolution

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Cash reward offered for information leading to Pennsylvania cold case homicide resolution


LEBANON COUNTY, Pa. (WHTM) — A cash reward is being offered for anyone who has information surrounding a 2021 cold case homicide in Lebanon County.

The $2,000 reward is for anyone who has information that can solve the case of the death of 35-year-old Zachary Lauderman, according to State Police.

Lauderman was found dead with two gunshot wounds to his head in his home, located along Ulsh lane in Bethel Township Sept. 10 just before 3 p.m., according to Troopers.

Anyone who knows something is asked to contact PSP Tips at 1-800-4PA-TIPS (8477), or they can go online to submit a tip by clicking here.

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