Pennsylvania
Experts concerned drop in Pennsylvania’s poverty rate is misleading
Fewer Pennsylvania residents reside in poverty than a decade in the past, in keeping with current census knowledge. However consultants in Philadelphia are elevating considerations that the information fails to seize folks’s financial realities.
State of play: 12% of Pennsylvania residents have incomes under the federal poverty line, in keeping with the newest five-year estimates from the 2016–2020 American Group Survey.
- That is down from 13.5% reported in 2011–2015.
Zoom in: Philadelphia’s poverty charge — the very best within the state, at 23% — has been on the decline for a decade.
- To match, surrounding counties, comparable to Montgomery, Chester, Delaware, and Bucks, all have poverty charges within the single digits.
What they’re saying: Whereas the numbers counsel enchancment, Mike Shields, analysis director on the Economic system League of Larger Philadelphia, says he isn’t fairly prepared to think about the census discovering a win.
- “Pennsylvania has been an enormous state for lower-income populations leaving for the Sunbelt for extra jobs and alternatives over the previous decade,” Shields tells Axios.
- “Whereas poverty has gone down, it hasn’t correlated with wage development.”
The census report does not take into account price of residing by location in its measurement, Shields says, pointing to the big inhabitants on the “fringe of poverty” who make anyplace from 100% to 150% of the federal poverty charge.
- “It is semantics. You might have been impoverished final 12 months making the identical quantity however then subsequent 12 months, you get a $5 elevate and now you are out of poverty,” he says.
The official poverty line additionally does not consider federal pandemic reduction and the effectiveness of presidency applications, says Judith Levine, director of the Public Coverage Lab at Temple College.
- She notes a separate Census Bureau report, the 2020 Supplemental Poverty Measure, which evaluates federal reduction applications like stimulus checks and expanded unemployment advantages.
- It credit the stimulus funds for shifting 11.7 million People out of poverty and the jobless advantages for stopping 5.5 million from falling into it.
The large image: Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned final week that rising meals costs might push thousands and thousands extra folks into poverty globally.
Go deeper: How one can assist battle starvation at house and on this planet
 "Trump to hold rally in Erie as Pennsylvania becomes key 2024 battleground")
Of the seven competitive states that both Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, his Democratic rival, have a realistic shot at winning, Pennsylvania is the most populous and awards the most votes in the Electoral College, which in turn is used to select the overall winner of the election.
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Donald Trump, the Republican presidential candidate is set to hold a rally in Pennsylvania today, his fourth campaign stop in the state this month. Erie, located in the northwest corner of Pennsylvania, will host the former president at 2 pm local time.
This rally comes one month after his running mate, US Senator JD Vance held a similar event in the same city. Trump has another rally scheduled in western Pennsylvania for October 5.
Pennsylvania has emerged as a crucial battleground state in the 2024 election, with many of Trump’s allies considering it the most important state to win. The state’s significance stems from its large population and the substantial number of electoral votes it awards, making it a critical factor in determining the overall winner of the election.
In fact, among the seven competitive states that both Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris have a realistic chance of winning, Pennsylvania stands out as the most populous and electorally valuable.
Trump allies broadly believe that if the former president beats Harris there, he is likely to return to the White House. But if Trump loses to Harris in Pennsylvania, the vice president has the inside track, in their opinion.
In a reflection of the stakes, Harris and Trump have spent hundreds of millions of dollars on ads in Pennsylvania in the months before the election, more than any other state in both gross and per capita terms.
Erie, the site of Trump’s rally, is a battleground inside a battleground. Erie County is one of two Pennsylvania counties that favored Trump in the 2016 election against Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton before favoring President Joe Biden against Trump in 2020.
Trump narrowly won the state and the election overall in 2016, before losing both in 2020.
This time around, Pennsylvania is again competitive, according to surveys. Harris leads Trump by 1.6 percentage points in the state, according to an average of polls maintained by polling and analysis website FiveThirtyEight. That difference is well within almost all polls’ margin of error.
Trump’s next rally in Pennsylvania, on Oct. 5, will take place in Butler, about 100 miles (160 km) south of Erie. That town was the site of a failed assassination attempt on Trump in July. A bullet grazed the former president’s ear.
With inputs from agencies.
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