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HOUSING MARKETS FACING GREATER RISK OF DECLINE CONCENTRATED IN CALIFORNIA, NEW JERSEY, ILLINOIS AND FLORIDA

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HOUSING MARKETS FACING GREATER RISK OF DECLINE CONCENTRATED IN CALIFORNIA, NEW JERSEY, ILLINOIS AND FLORIDA


New York City and Chicago Areas More Vulnerable to Drop-offs Along with Inland California; South Still Faces Relatively Small Exposure;

IRVINE, Calif., Dec. 5, 2024 /PRNewswire/ — ATTOM, a leading curator of land, property data, and real estate analytics, today released its latest Special Housing Market Impact Risk Report spotlighting county-level housing markets around the United States that are more or less vulnerable to declines, based on home affordability, equity and other measures in the third quarter of 2024. The report shows that California, New Jersey and Illinois once again had high concentrations of the most-at-risk markets in the country, with parts of Florida also joining that mix. Less-vulnerable markets continued to be clustered in the South region of the nation.

The third-quarter patterns – derived from gaps in affordability, underwater mortgages, foreclosures and unemployment – revealed that two-thirds of the 50 counties around the U.S. considered most exposed to potential fallbacks were in California, Florida, Illinois and New Jersey. Florida was a new addition to that group in the third quarter after earlier periods when it had fewer markets making the list of areas at elevated risk of downturns.

County-level housing markets on the latest list included six in and around Chicago, IL, five in or near New York City and four in southern New Jersey. Another 13 were in California, mostly inland from the Pacific coast. The rest were scattered largely around the Northeast, South and Midwest.

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At the other end of the risk spectrum, more than half the markets considered least likely to decline fell in Virginia, Wisconsin, Tennessee, Montana and New Hampshire. They included four in the Washington, DC, area.

The latest gaps come as the nation’s 13-year housing-market boom, along with the broader economy, continue to affect different parts of the country in different ways.

An almost unrelenting increase in home prices has surpassed most wage gains around the country to varying degrees. That has led to home ownership costs consuming more than triple the portion of average wages in some parts of the country compared to others. Similar disparities can be found in several other measures: unemployment rates, the level of homeowners facing foreclosure and the portion owing more on their mortgages than their homes are worth.

“The recent market risk patterns changed a bit in the third quarter, with some new areas making the list of places more or less exposed to downfalls. But the big picture remained pretty much the same around the country as differences in important metrics helped produce varying pockets of vulnerability,” said Rob Barber, CEO at ATTOM. “As with past reports, this one is not meant to suggest any given area is about to fall or is immune from problems. Rather, it spotlights locations that look to be more or less able to withstand significant changes in market conditions. We will continue to keep a close watch on markets throughout the country to see how things track.”

Counties were considered more or less at risk based on the percentage of homes facing possible foreclosure, the portion with mortgage balances that exceeded estimated property values, the percentage of average local wages required to pay for major home ownership expenses on median-priced single-family homes and local unemployment rates. The conclusions were drawn from an analysis of the most recent home affordability, equity and foreclosure reports prepared by ATTOM. Unemployment rates came from federal government data. Rankings were based on a combination of those four categories in 578 counties around the United States with sufficient data to analyze in the third quarter of 2024. Counties were ranked in each category, from lowest to highest, with the overall conclusion based on a combination of the four ranks. See below for the full methodology.

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Significant differences in risk continue around the U.S. at a time when market forces could combine to push home values up even further or tamp them down.

Vulnerable housing markets clustered around Chicago, New York City and inland California
The metropolitan areas around New York, NY, and Chicago, IL, as well as broad swaths of California, had 24 of the 50 U.S. counties considered most vulnerable in the third quarter of 2024 to housing market troubles. The counties were among 578 around the nation with enough data to analyze.

The most at-risk counties included Cook, Kane, Kendall, McHenry and Will counties in Illinois and Lake County in Indiana, two in New York City (Kings County, which covers Brooklyn, and New York County, which covers Manhattan) and three in the New York City suburbs (Essex, Passaic and Sussex counties, all in northern New Jersey).

Another 13 were in California: Butte County (Chico), Contra Costa County (outside Oakland), El Dorado County (outside Sacramento), Humboldt County (Eureka) and Solano County (outside Sacramento) in the northern part of the state, plus Kern County (Bakersfield), Kings County (outside Fresno), Madera County (outside Fresno), Merced County, San Joaquin County (Stockton) and Stanislas County (Modesto) in central California. Two others, Riverside and San Bernardino counties, were in southern California.

Worse levels of affordability, underwater mortgages, foreclosures and unemployment continue in most-at-risk markets
Major home-ownership costs (mortgage payments, property taxes and insurance) on median-priced single-family homes and condos were considered seriously unaffordable in 30 of the 50 counties deemed most vulnerable to market drop-offs in the third quarter of 2024. That means those expenses consumed at least 43 percent of average local wages. Nationwide, major expenses on typical homes sold in the third quarter required 34 percent of average local wages, a level also above basic affordability benchmarks.

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The highest percentages in the most at-risk markets were in Kings County (Brooklyn), NY (108 percent of average local wages needed for major ownership costs); Riverside County, CA (70.2 percent); El Dorado County, CA (outside Sacramento) (66.3 percent); Passaic County, NJ (outside New York City) (65.9 percent) and New York County (Manhattan), NY (65.1 percent).

At least 6 percent of residential mortgages were underwater in the third quarter of 2024 in 23 of the 50 most-at-risk counties. Nationwide, 5.5 percent of mortgages fell into that category, with homeowners owing more on their mortgages than the estimated value of their properties. Those with the highest underwater rates among the 50 most at-risk counties were St. Clair County, IL (outside St. Louis, MO) (15 percent underwater); Tangipahoa Parish, LA (east of Baton Rouge) (13.7 percent); Pinal County, AZ (outside Phoenix) (12.4 percent); Philadelphia County, PA (11.9 percent) and Marion County, FL (outside Gainesville) (11 percent).

More than one of every 1,000 residential properties faced a foreclosure action in the third quarter of 2024 in 35 of the 50 most vulnerable counties. Nationwide, one in 1,618 homes were in that position. The highest foreclosure-case rates in those counties were in Charlotte County (Punta Gorda), FL (one in 449 residential properties facing possible foreclosure); Osceola County, FL (outside Orlando) (one in 473); Dorchester County, SC (outside Charleston) (one in 509); Cumberland County (Vineland), NJ (one in 571) and Warren County, NJ (outside Allentown, PA) (one in 574).

The August 2024 unemployment rate was at least 5 percent in 34 of the 50 most at-risk counties, while the nationwide figure stood at 4.2 percent. The highest rates were in Merced County, CA (9.1 percent); Kern County (Bakersfield), CA (8.7 percent); Kings County, CA (outside Fresno) (8.2 percent); Cumberland County (Vineland), NJ (7.7 percent) and Madera County, CA (outside Fresno) (7.4 percent).

South has largest portion of counties least at risk
Twenty-two of the 50 counties considered least vulnerable to housing market problems from among the 578 reviewed in the third-quarter report were in the South. Another 13 were in Midwest, followed by 11 in the Northeast and just four in the West.

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Tennessee had eight of the least at-risk counties in the third quarter: They included Rutherford and Williamson counties in the Nashville metro area, Blount and Knox County in the Knoxville metro area, Hamilton County (Chattanooga), Bradley County (outside Chattanooga), Sullivan County (Kingsport) and Washington County (Johnson City).

Wisconsin had seven. They were Brown County (Green Bay), Outagamie County (outside Green Bay), Dane County (Madison), Rock County (outside Madison), Eau Claire County, La Crosse County and Winnebago County (Oshkosh).

Less-vulnerable counties aided by better market conditions
Major ownership costs on median-priced single-family homes and condos were seriously unaffordable in only 17 of the 50 counties that were considered least vulnerable to market problems in the third quarter of 2024 (compared to 30 of the most at-risk counties).

The lowest portions of wages required for home ownership were in Potter County (Amarillo), TX (19.1 percent); Oswego County, NY (outside Syracuse) (21.8 percent); Sullivan County (Kingsport), TN (25.9 percent); Shawnee County (Topeka), KS (26.5 percent) and Madison County (Huntsville), AL (26.9 percent).

More than 6 percent of residential mortgages were underwater in the third quarter of 2024 (with owners owing more than their properties were worth) in only one of the 50 least-at-risk counties. Those with the lowest rates were Chittenden County (Burlington), VT (0.8 percent underwater); Loudoun County, VA (outside Washington, DC) (1.6 percent); Rockingham County (Portsmouth), NH (1.9 percent); Henrico County (Richmond), VA (2 percent) and Hillsborough County (Manchester), NH (2 percent).

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More than one in 1,000 residential properties faced a foreclosure action during the third quarter of 2024 in none of the least-at-risk counties. Those with the lowest rates were Yellowstone County (Billings), MT (one in 72,252 residential properties faced possible foreclosure); Missoula County, MT (one in 55,084); Berkeley County (Martinsburg), WV (one in 25,646); Medina County, OH (outside Akron) (one in 18,785) and Chittenden County (Burlington), VT (one in 18,302).

The August 2024 unemployment rate was less than the national level of 4.2 percent in 48 of the 50 least-at-risk counties. The lowest rates among those counties were in Dane County (Madison), WI (2.1 percent); Chittenden County (Burlington), VT (2.1 percent); La Crosse County, WI (2.2 percent); Outagamie County, WI (2.3 percent) and Cumberland County (Portland) ME (2.3 percent).

Report methodology
The ATTOM Special Market Impact Report is based on ATTOM’s third-quarter 2024 residential foreclosure, home affordability and underwater property reports, plus August 2024 unemployment figures from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. (Press releases for affordability, foreclosure and underwater-property reports show the methodology for each.) Counties with sufficient data to analyze were ranked based on the third-quarter percentage of residential properties with a foreclosure filing, the percentage of average local wages needed to afford the major expenses of owning a median-priced home and the percentage of properties with outstanding mortgage balances that exceeded their estimated market values, along with August 2024 county-level unemployment rates. Ranks then were added up to develop a composite ranking across all four categories. Equal weight was given to each category. Counties with the lowest composite rank were considered most vulnerable to housing market problems. Those with the highest composite rank were considered least vulnerable.

About ATTOM
ATTOM provides premium property data and analytics that power a myriad of solutions that improve transparency, innovation, digitization and efficiency in a data-driven economy. ATTOM multi-sources property tax, deed, mortgage, foreclosure, environmental risk, natural hazard, and neighborhood data for more than 155 million U.S. residential and commercial properties covering 99 percent of the nation’s population. A rigorous data management process involving more than 20 steps validates, standardizes, and enhances the real estate data collected by ATTOM, assigning each property record with a persistent, unique ID — the ATTOM ID. The 30TB ATTOM Data Warehouse fuels innovation in many industries including mortgage, real estate, insurance, marketing, government and more through flexible data delivery solutions that include ATTOM Cloudbulk file licensesproperty data APIsreal estate market trendsproperty navigator and more. Also, introducing our newest innovative solution, making property data more readily accessible and optimized for AI applications – AI-Ready Solutions.

Media Contact:
Megan Hunt
megan.hunt@attomdata.com

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Data and Report Licensing:
datareports@attomdata.com

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New Jersey, Roxbury Township Seek Injunction to Block ICE Detention Facility – Insider NJ

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New Jersey, Roxbury Township Seek Injunction to Block ICE Detention Facility – Insider NJ


Federal Government Failed to Consider Burdens on Local Infrastructure and Resources

View Motion for Preliminary Injunction

Governor Mikie Sherrill and Attorney General Jennifer Davenport announced today that New Jersey and the Township of Roxbury have requested that the U.S. District Court issue a preliminary injunction to prevent the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) from converting a vacant industrial warehouse in Roxbury into a mass immigration detention facility.

Emergency relief is needed because DHS has indicated it plans to engage in construction activities in areas protected by a state-issued easement as early as late May.

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If the project were to proceed, it would impose profound burdens on local infrastructure and public resources from a facility that would house up to 1,500 detainees and be staffed by 1,000 employees, in an area not zoned for large-scale human occupancy. DHS and ICE failed to comply with federal laws requiring them to consult with state and local government officials and fully assess a project’s impacts on the environment and local resources.

The motion for a preliminary injunction explains that a federal court already found a DHS decision to convert another analogous warehouse into an ICE detention facility in Maryland is likely unlawful. ICE spent $129 million to acquire the Roxbury warehouse – and should be prevented from expending even more taxpayer dollars on construction given that the lawsuit is likely to succeed on the merits.

“The Trump Administration has ignored State and local officials in pushing its ill-conceived plan forward because it knows the local impacts are indefensible, and this facility will not make the community safer,” said Governor Sherrill. “We are standing up for New Jerseyans in a bipartisan manner to ensure their drinking water, public safety, and pocketbooks are protected.”

“We need swift relief to ensure we can enforce the law and protect New Jerseyans. DHS cannot transform local neighborhoods into detention outposts without considering the impacts on local resources and consulting with the State and local governments,” said Attorney General Davenport. “The court needs to step in before the damage is done, not after a lengthy case renders it too late.”

The lawsuit filed March 20 seeks declaratory and injunctive relief under the Administrative Procedure Act (APA), the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA), the Intergovernmental Cooperation Act (ICA), and the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA).

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DHS’s decision to purchase, convert, and operate a detention facility in this warehouse is unlawful for several reasons. As alleged in the complaint:

 

·    The site is currently a vacant warehouse on Route 46 that consists largely of a single large room with concrete floors and only four toilets.

·    The property lacks adequate water or sewage access to accommodate up to 1,500 detainees and 1,000 ICE staff.

·    Converting the warehouse into a detention center would multiply the water demands and wastewater output by more than 15 times, posing a serious risk of sewage overflows into nearby land, streets, and waterways – including Lake Musconetcong, which is 1,000 feet away and downhill from the warehouse, and Lake Hopatcong, the largest freshwater lake in New Jersey.

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·    An exponential increase in water demand poses a substantial risk of reducing water pressure and reliability for residents, impairing flows needed for fighting fires, depleting groundwater, and diminishing nearby wells.

The warehouse is located near the Route 46 interchange with Interstate 80, an already dangerous section of road that has been the site of dozens of crashes, including three with fatalities, since 2019. It is expected that about 1,000 staff will work at the warehouse following its conversion, adding hundreds of new vehicles to nearby roads during rush hour.



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Recently Completed 135-Unit Development in Newark Listed for Sale | Jersey Digs

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Recently Completed 135-Unit Development in Newark Listed for Sale | Jersey Digs


Iron65 on McWhorter Street has been listed for sale in Newark after launching their leasing operations in 2024. Image courtesy Matthews.

A mixed-use complex in Newark’s Ironbound neighborhood has already been put up for sale less than two years after wrapping up construction.

Matthews, a commercial real estate investment services and technology firm, recently listed Iron65 for sale at 59-65 McWhorter Street. The asset, exclusively listed by Matthews First Vice President & Director David Ferber and Associate Brendan Cina, is asking $56 million and is currently the only Class A building on the market in Newark.

Iron65 features 135 luxury residential units and one ground-floor commercial space, complemented by a full suite of high-end amenities. Perks at the property include a fully equipped fitness center with wet and dry saunas, a yoga studio, a rooftop social hub with outdoor kitchens, a game room, and a skyline spa lounge with New York City views.

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“Iron65 is built for today’s core stabilized buyer, offering high-quality construction, a best-in-class amenity package, and durable, high-end finishes,” Ferber said. “With strong in-place rents, institutional-level construction, and favorable financing available in today’s market, this offering presents a compelling opportunity for core buyers seeking durable cash flow and long-term growth.”

The development is supported by a 30-year tax PILOT starting at 10%, with potential debt below 5%. Iron 65 is a quick walk from Newark Penn Station and adjacent to the city’s Downtown in a neighborhood that has seen several notable new residential buildings like Union 55 in recent years.

Matthews noted in their announcement that the Newark submarket continues to attract renters seeking quality housing with strong transit connectivity, and that Iron65 is supported by ongoing reinvestment and development momentum throughout Newark.

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NJ’s Jamie Ding wins 17th straight on ‘Jeopardy!’. See his ranking

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NJ’s Jamie Ding wins 17th straight on ‘Jeopardy!’. See his ranking


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  • “Jeopardy!’ champ Jamie Ding show no signs of slowing down, winning his 17th straight game.

The “Jeopardy!’ champ just keeps on rolling.

Jamie Ding, of Lawrenceville, N.J., won his 17th straight game on the long-running game show to put him alone in 10th place on the all-time “Jeopardy!” wins list, according to TheJeopardyFan.com. He broke a tie with Ryan Long (16 wins in 2022) and fellow New Jerseyan Scott Riccardi, an engineer and Rutgers grad from Somerville, who won 16-straight last July.

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On the Monday, April 6 show, Ding won $31,611 to bring his 17-day total to $494,012, which is eighth on the regular-season money list all-time and 19th overall.

Ding’s opponents on Monday’s show were: Mikey Hlebasko, a sales operations director from Marietta, Georgia, and Maggie Faucher, a research assistant from Pittsburgh.

Heading into Final Jeopardy in Monday’s game, Ding had the contest wrapped up with $44,200 to Faucher’s $7,400 and Hlebasko’s $3,000, TheJeopardyFan.com reported.

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The Final Jeopardy was: “At least since 1890 plans have existed to link these two islands across the North Channel: a 2021 estimate ranged around $450 billion.”

All three contestants missed the correct answer, which was: “What is Great Britain and Ireland?”

Who is Jamie Ding?

Ding, who works for the New Jersey Housing and Mortgage Finance Agency, has secured a spot in the season-ending Tournament of Champions.

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He has a supporter in New Jersey Gov. Mikie Sherrill, who posted applauding Ding after he set an impressive record on the show that began 62 years ago.

On the March 17 show, Ding set the mark for highest Coryat score with with $42,400, topping the record of $39,200 achieved by now “Jeopardy!” host Ken Jennings back on June 10, 2004, according to TheJeopardyFan.com. On the April 1 show, Ding tied Jennings with at $39,200 Coryat. A Coryat score, named after a former contestant, is the sum of the natural value of any clues without Daily Doubles or Final Jeopardy.

Sen. Andy Kim has also tweeted out congratulations to Ding during this impressive run on the show.

While Sen. Cory Booker tweeted on April 1: “Jamie Ding! Making New Jersey proud! This Lawrenceville resident spends his days helping fund affordable housing across the Garden State, then goes on national TV and dominates. The man answers trivia on @Jeopardy and houses people for a living. New Jersey does not miss. Keep buzzing, Jamie.”

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Originally, Ding is from the Detroit area, having graduated from Grosse Pointe North High School in 2009. He graduated from Princeton University in 2013.

Ding told his alma mater that being on the show is “phenomenal.”

He and his sister have a Instagram account where they review General Tsos chicken at restaurants called: @attorneygeneraltsos. Ding talked about it on the show.





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