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HOUSING MARKETS FACING GREATER RISK OF DECLINE CONCENTRATED IN CALIFORNIA, NEW JERSEY, ILLINOIS AND FLORIDA

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HOUSING MARKETS FACING GREATER RISK OF DECLINE CONCENTRATED IN CALIFORNIA, NEW JERSEY, ILLINOIS AND FLORIDA


New York City and Chicago Areas More Vulnerable to Drop-offs Along with Inland California; South Still Faces Relatively Small Exposure;

IRVINE, Calif., Dec. 5, 2024 /PRNewswire/ — ATTOM, a leading curator of land, property data, and real estate analytics, today released its latest Special Housing Market Impact Risk Report spotlighting county-level housing markets around the United States that are more or less vulnerable to declines, based on home affordability, equity and other measures in the third quarter of 2024. The report shows that California, New Jersey and Illinois once again had high concentrations of the most-at-risk markets in the country, with parts of Florida also joining that mix. Less-vulnerable markets continued to be clustered in the South region of the nation.

The third-quarter patterns – derived from gaps in affordability, underwater mortgages, foreclosures and unemployment – revealed that two-thirds of the 50 counties around the U.S. considered most exposed to potential fallbacks were in California, Florida, Illinois and New Jersey. Florida was a new addition to that group in the third quarter after earlier periods when it had fewer markets making the list of areas at elevated risk of downturns.

County-level housing markets on the latest list included six in and around Chicago, IL, five in or near New York City and four in southern New Jersey. Another 13 were in California, mostly inland from the Pacific coast. The rest were scattered largely around the Northeast, South and Midwest.

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At the other end of the risk spectrum, more than half the markets considered least likely to decline fell in Virginia, Wisconsin, Tennessee, Montana and New Hampshire. They included four in the Washington, DC, area.

The latest gaps come as the nation’s 13-year housing-market boom, along with the broader economy, continue to affect different parts of the country in different ways.

An almost unrelenting increase in home prices has surpassed most wage gains around the country to varying degrees. That has led to home ownership costs consuming more than triple the portion of average wages in some parts of the country compared to others. Similar disparities can be found in several other measures: unemployment rates, the level of homeowners facing foreclosure and the portion owing more on their mortgages than their homes are worth.

“The recent market risk patterns changed a bit in the third quarter, with some new areas making the list of places more or less exposed to downfalls. But the big picture remained pretty much the same around the country as differences in important metrics helped produce varying pockets of vulnerability,” said Rob Barber, CEO at ATTOM. “As with past reports, this one is not meant to suggest any given area is about to fall or is immune from problems. Rather, it spotlights locations that look to be more or less able to withstand significant changes in market conditions. We will continue to keep a close watch on markets throughout the country to see how things track.”

Counties were considered more or less at risk based on the percentage of homes facing possible foreclosure, the portion with mortgage balances that exceeded estimated property values, the percentage of average local wages required to pay for major home ownership expenses on median-priced single-family homes and local unemployment rates. The conclusions were drawn from an analysis of the most recent home affordability, equity and foreclosure reports prepared by ATTOM. Unemployment rates came from federal government data. Rankings were based on a combination of those four categories in 578 counties around the United States with sufficient data to analyze in the third quarter of 2024. Counties were ranked in each category, from lowest to highest, with the overall conclusion based on a combination of the four ranks. See below for the full methodology.

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Significant differences in risk continue around the U.S. at a time when market forces could combine to push home values up even further or tamp them down.

Vulnerable housing markets clustered around Chicago, New York City and inland California
The metropolitan areas around New York, NY, and Chicago, IL, as well as broad swaths of California, had 24 of the 50 U.S. counties considered most vulnerable in the third quarter of 2024 to housing market troubles. The counties were among 578 around the nation with enough data to analyze.

The most at-risk counties included Cook, Kane, Kendall, McHenry and Will counties in Illinois and Lake County in Indiana, two in New York City (Kings County, which covers Brooklyn, and New York County, which covers Manhattan) and three in the New York City suburbs (Essex, Passaic and Sussex counties, all in northern New Jersey).

Another 13 were in California: Butte County (Chico), Contra Costa County (outside Oakland), El Dorado County (outside Sacramento), Humboldt County (Eureka) and Solano County (outside Sacramento) in the northern part of the state, plus Kern County (Bakersfield), Kings County (outside Fresno), Madera County (outside Fresno), Merced County, San Joaquin County (Stockton) and Stanislas County (Modesto) in central California. Two others, Riverside and San Bernardino counties, were in southern California.

Worse levels of affordability, underwater mortgages, foreclosures and unemployment continue in most-at-risk markets
Major home-ownership costs (mortgage payments, property taxes and insurance) on median-priced single-family homes and condos were considered seriously unaffordable in 30 of the 50 counties deemed most vulnerable to market drop-offs in the third quarter of 2024. That means those expenses consumed at least 43 percent of average local wages. Nationwide, major expenses on typical homes sold in the third quarter required 34 percent of average local wages, a level also above basic affordability benchmarks.

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The highest percentages in the most at-risk markets were in Kings County (Brooklyn), NY (108 percent of average local wages needed for major ownership costs); Riverside County, CA (70.2 percent); El Dorado County, CA (outside Sacramento) (66.3 percent); Passaic County, NJ (outside New York City) (65.9 percent) and New York County (Manhattan), NY (65.1 percent).

At least 6 percent of residential mortgages were underwater in the third quarter of 2024 in 23 of the 50 most-at-risk counties. Nationwide, 5.5 percent of mortgages fell into that category, with homeowners owing more on their mortgages than the estimated value of their properties. Those with the highest underwater rates among the 50 most at-risk counties were St. Clair County, IL (outside St. Louis, MO) (15 percent underwater); Tangipahoa Parish, LA (east of Baton Rouge) (13.7 percent); Pinal County, AZ (outside Phoenix) (12.4 percent); Philadelphia County, PA (11.9 percent) and Marion County, FL (outside Gainesville) (11 percent).

More than one of every 1,000 residential properties faced a foreclosure action in the third quarter of 2024 in 35 of the 50 most vulnerable counties. Nationwide, one in 1,618 homes were in that position. The highest foreclosure-case rates in those counties were in Charlotte County (Punta Gorda), FL (one in 449 residential properties facing possible foreclosure); Osceola County, FL (outside Orlando) (one in 473); Dorchester County, SC (outside Charleston) (one in 509); Cumberland County (Vineland), NJ (one in 571) and Warren County, NJ (outside Allentown, PA) (one in 574).

The August 2024 unemployment rate was at least 5 percent in 34 of the 50 most at-risk counties, while the nationwide figure stood at 4.2 percent. The highest rates were in Merced County, CA (9.1 percent); Kern County (Bakersfield), CA (8.7 percent); Kings County, CA (outside Fresno) (8.2 percent); Cumberland County (Vineland), NJ (7.7 percent) and Madera County, CA (outside Fresno) (7.4 percent).

South has largest portion of counties least at risk
Twenty-two of the 50 counties considered least vulnerable to housing market problems from among the 578 reviewed in the third-quarter report were in the South. Another 13 were in Midwest, followed by 11 in the Northeast and just four in the West.

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Tennessee had eight of the least at-risk counties in the third quarter: They included Rutherford and Williamson counties in the Nashville metro area, Blount and Knox County in the Knoxville metro area, Hamilton County (Chattanooga), Bradley County (outside Chattanooga), Sullivan County (Kingsport) and Washington County (Johnson City).

Wisconsin had seven. They were Brown County (Green Bay), Outagamie County (outside Green Bay), Dane County (Madison), Rock County (outside Madison), Eau Claire County, La Crosse County and Winnebago County (Oshkosh).

Less-vulnerable counties aided by better market conditions
Major ownership costs on median-priced single-family homes and condos were seriously unaffordable in only 17 of the 50 counties that were considered least vulnerable to market problems in the third quarter of 2024 (compared to 30 of the most at-risk counties).

The lowest portions of wages required for home ownership were in Potter County (Amarillo), TX (19.1 percent); Oswego County, NY (outside Syracuse) (21.8 percent); Sullivan County (Kingsport), TN (25.9 percent); Shawnee County (Topeka), KS (26.5 percent) and Madison County (Huntsville), AL (26.9 percent).

More than 6 percent of residential mortgages were underwater in the third quarter of 2024 (with owners owing more than their properties were worth) in only one of the 50 least-at-risk counties. Those with the lowest rates were Chittenden County (Burlington), VT (0.8 percent underwater); Loudoun County, VA (outside Washington, DC) (1.6 percent); Rockingham County (Portsmouth), NH (1.9 percent); Henrico County (Richmond), VA (2 percent) and Hillsborough County (Manchester), NH (2 percent).

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More than one in 1,000 residential properties faced a foreclosure action during the third quarter of 2024 in none of the least-at-risk counties. Those with the lowest rates were Yellowstone County (Billings), MT (one in 72,252 residential properties faced possible foreclosure); Missoula County, MT (one in 55,084); Berkeley County (Martinsburg), WV (one in 25,646); Medina County, OH (outside Akron) (one in 18,785) and Chittenden County (Burlington), VT (one in 18,302).

The August 2024 unemployment rate was less than the national level of 4.2 percent in 48 of the 50 least-at-risk counties. The lowest rates among those counties were in Dane County (Madison), WI (2.1 percent); Chittenden County (Burlington), VT (2.1 percent); La Crosse County, WI (2.2 percent); Outagamie County, WI (2.3 percent) and Cumberland County (Portland) ME (2.3 percent).

Report methodology
The ATTOM Special Market Impact Report is based on ATTOM’s third-quarter 2024 residential foreclosure, home affordability and underwater property reports, plus August 2024 unemployment figures from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. (Press releases for affordability, foreclosure and underwater-property reports show the methodology for each.) Counties with sufficient data to analyze were ranked based on the third-quarter percentage of residential properties with a foreclosure filing, the percentage of average local wages needed to afford the major expenses of owning a median-priced home and the percentage of properties with outstanding mortgage balances that exceeded their estimated market values, along with August 2024 county-level unemployment rates. Ranks then were added up to develop a composite ranking across all four categories. Equal weight was given to each category. Counties with the lowest composite rank were considered most vulnerable to housing market problems. Those with the highest composite rank were considered least vulnerable.

About ATTOM
ATTOM provides premium property data and analytics that power a myriad of solutions that improve transparency, innovation, digitization and efficiency in a data-driven economy. ATTOM multi-sources property tax, deed, mortgage, foreclosure, environmental risk, natural hazard, and neighborhood data for more than 155 million U.S. residential and commercial properties covering 99 percent of the nation’s population. A rigorous data management process involving more than 20 steps validates, standardizes, and enhances the real estate data collected by ATTOM, assigning each property record with a persistent, unique ID — the ATTOM ID. The 30TB ATTOM Data Warehouse fuels innovation in many industries including mortgage, real estate, insurance, marketing, government and more through flexible data delivery solutions that include ATTOM Cloudbulk file licensesproperty data APIsreal estate market trendsproperty navigator and more. Also, introducing our newest innovative solution, making property data more readily accessible and optimized for AI applications – AI-Ready Solutions.

Media Contact:
Megan Hunt
megan.hunt@attomdata.com

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Data and Report Licensing:
datareports@attomdata.com

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Funeral to be held for 25-year-old NJ man killed in New Orleans attack

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Funeral to be held for 25-year-old NJ man killed in New Orleans attack


HOLMDEL, New Jersey (WPVI) — Family, friends, and those who knew 25-year-old Billy DiMaio will pay tribute to him during a funeral service in Holmdel, New Jersey, on Thursday.

The standout athlete, son, and brother was one of the 14 victims killed in the New Year’s Day terrorist act in New Orleans.

He was with friends on Bourbon Street when a man inspired by ISIS drove his truck into a crowd of people.

Victim killed in New Orleans attack ID’d as Philadelphia college grad

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DiMaio’s funeral will be held at St. Catherine’s Church in his hometown of Holmdel at 10:30 a.m. Interment will follow at Holmdel Cemetery following the service.

Billy’s parents Bill and Tracie DiMaio are heartbroken.

“Billy had a smile that could light up a room, and his laughter was truly infectious,” the family said in a statement. “His energetic personality inspired everyone around him. He cared for others more than himself and, as the oldest brother to Samantha and Anthony held a unique and irreplaceable role in their lives as well as cousins and friends. He will be dearly missed.”

DiMaio graduated in 2022 from Philadelphia’s Chestnut Hill College where he was a midfielder on the lacrosse team, according to the athletic director.

RELATED | What we know about victims of New Orleans truck attack: ‘So beautiful and full of life’

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14 people were killed when a man rammed his truck into a crowd on Bourbon Street on New Year’s Day.

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College student from Lincroft, NJ killed in skiing accident

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College student from Lincroft, NJ killed in skiing accident


A Monmouth County college student died Tuesday after a tragic skiing accident in Hancock, Massachusetts, according to authorities.

The student, 19-year-old Alex Kemp of Lincroft, graduated from Christian Brothers Academy last year. He was a first-year student at Williams College, also in Massachusetts, where he competed on the cross-country and men’s track and field team.

According to media reports, Kemp was skiing down the Cutter Trail route at Jiminy Peak Mountain Resort when he crashed around 2:39 p.m.

“Kemp had gone over an embankment and appeared to have suffered significant head trauma,” according to reporting from The Berkshire Eagle of a statement from the Berkshire County District Attorney’s Office. “Jiminy Peak Ski Patrol were immediately dispatched to the scene,” the statement went on to say according to reporting from The Berkshire Eagle. “Northern Berkshire EMS arrived shortly thereafter to administer life-saving measures. The victim was transported to Berkshire Medical Center before being transferred to Baystate Medical Center for further care.”

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No evidence suggested drugs and alcohol were involved, according to reporting from The Berkshire Eagle of a statement from the Berkshire County District Attorney’s Office. The publication also reported Kemp was wearing a helmet.

The Cutter Trail, a black diamond trail, is labeled on a Jiminy Peak trail map as being “most difficult” and for seasoned skiers.

Local law enforcement is investigating the accident, and they said Jiminy Peak Mountain Resort has cooperated.

On Wednesday, Williams College President Maude Mandel addressed the school community about Kemp’s death. In it, she expressed her sadness and also quoted Kemp’s coach, Dusty Lopez, who recruited him to run at Williams.

“Alex was fearless and incredibly motivated as a runner, both in training and competition,” Lopez’s quote in the statement read. “But even when he didn’t have his own best day, he took sincere joy and pride in seeing teammates do well. The team was always his biggest priority. Our entire team feels a huge sense of loss and grief at this tragic accident. Our thoughts and hearts are with his family, his high school teammates and coaches, and everyone else who was lucky enough to know Alex.”

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Mandel added that Kemp had hoped to complete a doctorate in computer science, placed first among all first-years at the NCAA Championships, and was an active volunteer. In her statement, Mandel said Kemp had volunteered at the Jon Bon Jovi Soul Kitchen and iCan Bike.

The college, Mandel added, is planning to hold a public gathering in recognition of Kemp’s life in the “coming weeks.”

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N.J. governor says violent crime is down across state

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N.J. governor says violent crime is down across state


N.J. governor says violent crime is down across state – CBS New York

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Gov. Phil Murphy says violent crime across New Jersey is declining – 778 people were shot in 2024, a 16% drop from 2023.

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