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HOUSING MARKETS FACING GREATER RISK OF DECLINE CONCENTRATED IN CALIFORNIA, NEW JERSEY, ILLINOIS AND FLORIDA

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HOUSING MARKETS FACING GREATER RISK OF DECLINE CONCENTRATED IN CALIFORNIA, NEW JERSEY, ILLINOIS AND FLORIDA


New York City and Chicago Areas More Vulnerable to Drop-offs Along with Inland California; South Still Faces Relatively Small Exposure;

IRVINE, Calif., Dec. 5, 2024 /PRNewswire/ — ATTOM, a leading curator of land, property data, and real estate analytics, today released its latest Special Housing Market Impact Risk Report spotlighting county-level housing markets around the United States that are more or less vulnerable to declines, based on home affordability, equity and other measures in the third quarter of 2024. The report shows that California, New Jersey and Illinois once again had high concentrations of the most-at-risk markets in the country, with parts of Florida also joining that mix. Less-vulnerable markets continued to be clustered in the South region of the nation.

The third-quarter patterns – derived from gaps in affordability, underwater mortgages, foreclosures and unemployment – revealed that two-thirds of the 50 counties around the U.S. considered most exposed to potential fallbacks were in California, Florida, Illinois and New Jersey. Florida was a new addition to that group in the third quarter after earlier periods when it had fewer markets making the list of areas at elevated risk of downturns.

County-level housing markets on the latest list included six in and around Chicago, IL, five in or near New York City and four in southern New Jersey. Another 13 were in California, mostly inland from the Pacific coast. The rest were scattered largely around the Northeast, South and Midwest.

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At the other end of the risk spectrum, more than half the markets considered least likely to decline fell in Virginia, Wisconsin, Tennessee, Montana and New Hampshire. They included four in the Washington, DC, area.

The latest gaps come as the nation’s 13-year housing-market boom, along with the broader economy, continue to affect different parts of the country in different ways.

An almost unrelenting increase in home prices has surpassed most wage gains around the country to varying degrees. That has led to home ownership costs consuming more than triple the portion of average wages in some parts of the country compared to others. Similar disparities can be found in several other measures: unemployment rates, the level of homeowners facing foreclosure and the portion owing more on their mortgages than their homes are worth.

“The recent market risk patterns changed a bit in the third quarter, with some new areas making the list of places more or less exposed to downfalls. But the big picture remained pretty much the same around the country as differences in important metrics helped produce varying pockets of vulnerability,” said Rob Barber, CEO at ATTOM. “As with past reports, this one is not meant to suggest any given area is about to fall or is immune from problems. Rather, it spotlights locations that look to be more or less able to withstand significant changes in market conditions. We will continue to keep a close watch on markets throughout the country to see how things track.”

Counties were considered more or less at risk based on the percentage of homes facing possible foreclosure, the portion with mortgage balances that exceeded estimated property values, the percentage of average local wages required to pay for major home ownership expenses on median-priced single-family homes and local unemployment rates. The conclusions were drawn from an analysis of the most recent home affordability, equity and foreclosure reports prepared by ATTOM. Unemployment rates came from federal government data. Rankings were based on a combination of those four categories in 578 counties around the United States with sufficient data to analyze in the third quarter of 2024. Counties were ranked in each category, from lowest to highest, with the overall conclusion based on a combination of the four ranks. See below for the full methodology.

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Significant differences in risk continue around the U.S. at a time when market forces could combine to push home values up even further or tamp them down.

Vulnerable housing markets clustered around Chicago, New York City and inland California
The metropolitan areas around New York, NY, and Chicago, IL, as well as broad swaths of California, had 24 of the 50 U.S. counties considered most vulnerable in the third quarter of 2024 to housing market troubles. The counties were among 578 around the nation with enough data to analyze.

The most at-risk counties included Cook, Kane, Kendall, McHenry and Will counties in Illinois and Lake County in Indiana, two in New York City (Kings County, which covers Brooklyn, and New York County, which covers Manhattan) and three in the New York City suburbs (Essex, Passaic and Sussex counties, all in northern New Jersey).

Another 13 were in California: Butte County (Chico), Contra Costa County (outside Oakland), El Dorado County (outside Sacramento), Humboldt County (Eureka) and Solano County (outside Sacramento) in the northern part of the state, plus Kern County (Bakersfield), Kings County (outside Fresno), Madera County (outside Fresno), Merced County, San Joaquin County (Stockton) and Stanislas County (Modesto) in central California. Two others, Riverside and San Bernardino counties, were in southern California.

Worse levels of affordability, underwater mortgages, foreclosures and unemployment continue in most-at-risk markets
Major home-ownership costs (mortgage payments, property taxes and insurance) on median-priced single-family homes and condos were considered seriously unaffordable in 30 of the 50 counties deemed most vulnerable to market drop-offs in the third quarter of 2024. That means those expenses consumed at least 43 percent of average local wages. Nationwide, major expenses on typical homes sold in the third quarter required 34 percent of average local wages, a level also above basic affordability benchmarks.

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The highest percentages in the most at-risk markets were in Kings County (Brooklyn), NY (108 percent of average local wages needed for major ownership costs); Riverside County, CA (70.2 percent); El Dorado County, CA (outside Sacramento) (66.3 percent); Passaic County, NJ (outside New York City) (65.9 percent) and New York County (Manhattan), NY (65.1 percent).

At least 6 percent of residential mortgages were underwater in the third quarter of 2024 in 23 of the 50 most-at-risk counties. Nationwide, 5.5 percent of mortgages fell into that category, with homeowners owing more on their mortgages than the estimated value of their properties. Those with the highest underwater rates among the 50 most at-risk counties were St. Clair County, IL (outside St. Louis, MO) (15 percent underwater); Tangipahoa Parish, LA (east of Baton Rouge) (13.7 percent); Pinal County, AZ (outside Phoenix) (12.4 percent); Philadelphia County, PA (11.9 percent) and Marion County, FL (outside Gainesville) (11 percent).

More than one of every 1,000 residential properties faced a foreclosure action in the third quarter of 2024 in 35 of the 50 most vulnerable counties. Nationwide, one in 1,618 homes were in that position. The highest foreclosure-case rates in those counties were in Charlotte County (Punta Gorda), FL (one in 449 residential properties facing possible foreclosure); Osceola County, FL (outside Orlando) (one in 473); Dorchester County, SC (outside Charleston) (one in 509); Cumberland County (Vineland), NJ (one in 571) and Warren County, NJ (outside Allentown, PA) (one in 574).

The August 2024 unemployment rate was at least 5 percent in 34 of the 50 most at-risk counties, while the nationwide figure stood at 4.2 percent. The highest rates were in Merced County, CA (9.1 percent); Kern County (Bakersfield), CA (8.7 percent); Kings County, CA (outside Fresno) (8.2 percent); Cumberland County (Vineland), NJ (7.7 percent) and Madera County, CA (outside Fresno) (7.4 percent).

South has largest portion of counties least at risk
Twenty-two of the 50 counties considered least vulnerable to housing market problems from among the 578 reviewed in the third-quarter report were in the South. Another 13 were in Midwest, followed by 11 in the Northeast and just four in the West.

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Tennessee had eight of the least at-risk counties in the third quarter: They included Rutherford and Williamson counties in the Nashville metro area, Blount and Knox County in the Knoxville metro area, Hamilton County (Chattanooga), Bradley County (outside Chattanooga), Sullivan County (Kingsport) and Washington County (Johnson City).

Wisconsin had seven. They were Brown County (Green Bay), Outagamie County (outside Green Bay), Dane County (Madison), Rock County (outside Madison), Eau Claire County, La Crosse County and Winnebago County (Oshkosh).

Less-vulnerable counties aided by better market conditions
Major ownership costs on median-priced single-family homes and condos were seriously unaffordable in only 17 of the 50 counties that were considered least vulnerable to market problems in the third quarter of 2024 (compared to 30 of the most at-risk counties).

The lowest portions of wages required for home ownership were in Potter County (Amarillo), TX (19.1 percent); Oswego County, NY (outside Syracuse) (21.8 percent); Sullivan County (Kingsport), TN (25.9 percent); Shawnee County (Topeka), KS (26.5 percent) and Madison County (Huntsville), AL (26.9 percent).

More than 6 percent of residential mortgages were underwater in the third quarter of 2024 (with owners owing more than their properties were worth) in only one of the 50 least-at-risk counties. Those with the lowest rates were Chittenden County (Burlington), VT (0.8 percent underwater); Loudoun County, VA (outside Washington, DC) (1.6 percent); Rockingham County (Portsmouth), NH (1.9 percent); Henrico County (Richmond), VA (2 percent) and Hillsborough County (Manchester), NH (2 percent).

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More than one in 1,000 residential properties faced a foreclosure action during the third quarter of 2024 in none of the least-at-risk counties. Those with the lowest rates were Yellowstone County (Billings), MT (one in 72,252 residential properties faced possible foreclosure); Missoula County, MT (one in 55,084); Berkeley County (Martinsburg), WV (one in 25,646); Medina County, OH (outside Akron) (one in 18,785) and Chittenden County (Burlington), VT (one in 18,302).

The August 2024 unemployment rate was less than the national level of 4.2 percent in 48 of the 50 least-at-risk counties. The lowest rates among those counties were in Dane County (Madison), WI (2.1 percent); Chittenden County (Burlington), VT (2.1 percent); La Crosse County, WI (2.2 percent); Outagamie County, WI (2.3 percent) and Cumberland County (Portland) ME (2.3 percent).

Report methodology
The ATTOM Special Market Impact Report is based on ATTOM’s third-quarter 2024 residential foreclosure, home affordability and underwater property reports, plus August 2024 unemployment figures from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. (Press releases for affordability, foreclosure and underwater-property reports show the methodology for each.) Counties with sufficient data to analyze were ranked based on the third-quarter percentage of residential properties with a foreclosure filing, the percentage of average local wages needed to afford the major expenses of owning a median-priced home and the percentage of properties with outstanding mortgage balances that exceeded their estimated market values, along with August 2024 county-level unemployment rates. Ranks then were added up to develop a composite ranking across all four categories. Equal weight was given to each category. Counties with the lowest composite rank were considered most vulnerable to housing market problems. Those with the highest composite rank were considered least vulnerable.

About ATTOM
ATTOM provides premium property data and analytics that power a myriad of solutions that improve transparency, innovation, digitization and efficiency in a data-driven economy. ATTOM multi-sources property tax, deed, mortgage, foreclosure, environmental risk, natural hazard, and neighborhood data for more than 155 million U.S. residential and commercial properties covering 99 percent of the nation’s population. A rigorous data management process involving more than 20 steps validates, standardizes, and enhances the real estate data collected by ATTOM, assigning each property record with a persistent, unique ID — the ATTOM ID. The 30TB ATTOM Data Warehouse fuels innovation in many industries including mortgage, real estate, insurance, marketing, government and more through flexible data delivery solutions that include ATTOM Cloudbulk file licensesproperty data APIsreal estate market trendsproperty navigator and more. Also, introducing our newest innovative solution, making property data more readily accessible and optimized for AI applications – AI-Ready Solutions.

Media Contact:
Megan Hunt
megan.hunt@attomdata.com

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Data and Report Licensing:
datareports@attomdata.com

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N.J. port meant to be a wind hub is now at the center of a bitter legal feud

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N.J. port meant to be a wind hub is now at the center of a bitter legal feud


The operator of a South Jersey commercial port is moving to evict a wind-energy manufacturer after promised projects failed to materialize.

The lawsuit, filed in Gloucester County Superior Court on Oct. 7, marks another setback for New Jersey’s offshore wind ambitions.

Holt Logistics Corp., which manages the Paulsboro Marine Terminal, is asking a judge to force EEW Group off the site after years of stalled projects and mounting safety concerns.

The dispute underscores how a $250 million state-backed push to make Paulsboro a hub for wind energy has unraveled amid canceled projects, political opposition, and industry setbacks.

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The EEW Group, a German pipe maker, began leasing space at Holt’s port in Paulsboro in 2021. Their objective was to build huge “monopiles,” the poles on which turbines spin to generate electricity.

Four years later, the port manager is asking a judge to order that the European builder vacate its property, located on the bank of the Delaware River in Paulsboro.

Through its subsidiary EEW-AOS, the company is leasing about 70 acres at the Paulsboro port to build monopiles, which are steel foundations for wind turbines that can reach up to 400 feet long, according to court filings reviewed by NJ Advance Media.

The lawsuit names Paulsboro Waterfront Development, an affiliate of Holt, as the plaintiff.

In its three-count lawsuit, Holt accuses EEW of breaching its lease agreement after offshore wind production stalled and alleges violations of safety rules and federal labor laws.

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A spokesperson for Paulsboro Waterfront Development said the lawsuit seeks to have the leased area returned into its possession.

“The sole purpose of the sublease was to permit EEW to manufacture monopiles to support the New Jersey offshore wind project,“ Kevin Feeney, a spokesperson for Paulsboro Waterfront Development, said in an email to NJ Advance Media.

”The wind farm project fell apart and late last summer, EEW removed all improvements that would allow for any monopile fabrication. They have abandoned the lease and its sole purpose,” he added.

“The Paulsboro Marine Terminal sits idle since the collapse of the wind energy industry in New Jersey,” Feeney said. “We are confident that as soon as the Terminal can be developed as originally planned – as a thriving facility for both breakbulk and container cargo – it can serve as an economic engine for South Jersey that will bring additional investment and jobs to the region.”

Johnathan Rardin, an attorney for EEW, declined to comment when reached by NJ Advance Media.

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Offshore wind monopile parts wait to be scrapped at the Paulsboro wind port in Paulsboro, NJ, on Friday, November 1, 2024.Dave Hernandez | For NJ Advance

The port operator also claims the company tried to remove improvements from the site.

Court exhibits include letters referencing an April 2025 fire caused by workers leaving hot monopile material unattended, as well as a letter noting that state inspectors found fire code violations during a January visit, according to the New Jersey Department of Community Affairs.

EEW last month denied the accusations, filing a countersuit against Holt in its response to the port manager’s claim. The company said the spring fire was contained and that the fire code violations were fixed quickly.

“This is not a run-of-the-mill commercial real estate dispute,” Holt’s lawsuit states. “Put simply, Paulsboro Marine Terminal is a public asset. As such, the opportunity cost of EEW-AOS’s inactivity is enormous: the diminished inflow of cargo and commodities translates into diminished industrial capacity and diminished demand for labor.”

Michael O’Mara, an attorney for Holt, declined to discuss the case when reached by NJ Advance Media. He directed questions directly to Holt, which did not respond to an emailed request for comment.

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Ørsted and Atlantic Shores, two of the larger companies preparing to build offshore wind farms, have since canceled their projects.

Last November, workers in Paulsboro began dismantling more than a dozen steel monopiles and recycling their metals.

Holt claims it was “cajoled” into leasing its property by political and civic leaders bullish on an industry that saw little to no success.

Holt’s lawsuit cited the struggling wind industry, which Gov. Phil Murphy sought to bolster with a $250 million investment in the port, promoting it as a project to transform the site into one of the nation’s largest wind-energy hubs.

“Although New Jersey’s offshore wind plan was attractive in theory and initially successful in practice (with massive initial investments translating into early infrastructural progress), that success was short-lived,” the lawsuit states.

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In its response, EEW objected to the characterization.

“EEW is of the opinion that its ultimate success in using the site will benefit the State of New Jersey, Gloucester County, and the Borough of Paulsboro,” the response states. “EEW’s use of the Premises will add additional industrial and manufacturing capacity and provide jobs on the site and to related businesses.”

Murphy’s administration planned a two-site process, in which the Paulsboro facility would construct the monopiles and bases for the wind farms.

Miles south in Salem County, a separate facility was expected to construct turbines but never began production at its anticipated start date in 2024.



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New Jersey would ban plastic utensils in takeout orders under new bill

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New Jersey would ban plastic utensils in takeout orders under new bill


Legislation that would ban single-use utensils from takeout orders advanced this week in the New Jersey Senate. 

The bill aims to reduce unnecessary waste and environmental impact. If customers need utensils, they would have to request them specifically, as they would no longer be included in their orders automatically under this bill.

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The bill would prohibit food service businesses from automatically providing condiment packets to customers, as well. Instead, they would be required to offer them reusable utensils. 

According to the bill, businesses that fail to comply with the law would ultimately be fined. A third of the fines collected from businesses who violate the law would be deposited into the Clean Communities Program Fund, “a statewide, comprehensive, litter-abatement program created by the passage of the Clean Communities Act in 1986.” 

460 million tons of plastic

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What they’re saying:

Supporters of the initiative argue that reducing plastic waste is crucial for both environmental and human health. Plastic utensils often end up in landfills and oceans, contributing to pollution, according to the World Wildlife Fund (WWF). 

The WWF says that every year, humans produce over 460 million tons of plastic, 90% of which pollutes “almost all areas of our planet.” 

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Some critics believe there are more pressing plastic issues to address, like packaging for sodas and chips. They also question the practicality of expecting people to carry utensils.

Dig deeper:

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The proposed law would not apply to schools, prisons and health care facilities, meaning they would remain exempt if the legislation passes.

A companion bill has been introduced in the state Assembly. Both chambers must pass the bill before the governor can sign it into law, however. 

What we don’t know:

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The potential cost impact on businesses and how consumers would adapt to the change are still unclear.

The Source: Information from a FOX 5 NY report, the World Wildlife Fund, the bill’s text and NJ Clean Communities. 

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Hischier | PRE-RAW 12.11.25 | New Jersey Devils

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Hischier | PRE-RAW 12.11.25 | New Jersey Devils


NewJerseyDevils.com is the official web site of the New Jersey Devils, a member team of the National Hockey League (“NHL”). NHL, the NHL Shield, the word mark and image of the Stanley Cup and NHL Conference logos are registered trademarks of the National Hockey League. All NHL logos and marks and NHL team logos and marks as well as all other proprietary materials depicted herein are the property of the NHL and the respective NHL teams and may not be reproduced without the prior written consent of NHL Enterprises, L.P. Copyright © 1999-2025 New Jersey Devils and the National Hockey League. All Rights Reserved.



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