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HOUSING MARKETS FACING GREATER RISK OF DECLINE CONCENTRATED IN CALIFORNIA, NEW JERSEY, ILLINOIS AND FLORIDA

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HOUSING MARKETS FACING GREATER RISK OF DECLINE CONCENTRATED IN CALIFORNIA, NEW JERSEY, ILLINOIS AND FLORIDA


New York City and Chicago Areas More Vulnerable to Drop-offs Along with Inland California; South Still Faces Relatively Small Exposure;

IRVINE, Calif., Dec. 5, 2024 /PRNewswire/ — ATTOM, a leading curator of land, property data, and real estate analytics, today released its latest Special Housing Market Impact Risk Report spotlighting county-level housing markets around the United States that are more or less vulnerable to declines, based on home affordability, equity and other measures in the third quarter of 2024. The report shows that California, New Jersey and Illinois once again had high concentrations of the most-at-risk markets in the country, with parts of Florida also joining that mix. Less-vulnerable markets continued to be clustered in the South region of the nation.

The third-quarter patterns – derived from gaps in affordability, underwater mortgages, foreclosures and unemployment – revealed that two-thirds of the 50 counties around the U.S. considered most exposed to potential fallbacks were in California, Florida, Illinois and New Jersey. Florida was a new addition to that group in the third quarter after earlier periods when it had fewer markets making the list of areas at elevated risk of downturns.

County-level housing markets on the latest list included six in and around Chicago, IL, five in or near New York City and four in southern New Jersey. Another 13 were in California, mostly inland from the Pacific coast. The rest were scattered largely around the Northeast, South and Midwest.

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At the other end of the risk spectrum, more than half the markets considered least likely to decline fell in Virginia, Wisconsin, Tennessee, Montana and New Hampshire. They included four in the Washington, DC, area.

The latest gaps come as the nation’s 13-year housing-market boom, along with the broader economy, continue to affect different parts of the country in different ways.

An almost unrelenting increase in home prices has surpassed most wage gains around the country to varying degrees. That has led to home ownership costs consuming more than triple the portion of average wages in some parts of the country compared to others. Similar disparities can be found in several other measures: unemployment rates, the level of homeowners facing foreclosure and the portion owing more on their mortgages than their homes are worth.

“The recent market risk patterns changed a bit in the third quarter, with some new areas making the list of places more or less exposed to downfalls. But the big picture remained pretty much the same around the country as differences in important metrics helped produce varying pockets of vulnerability,” said Rob Barber, CEO at ATTOM. “As with past reports, this one is not meant to suggest any given area is about to fall or is immune from problems. Rather, it spotlights locations that look to be more or less able to withstand significant changes in market conditions. We will continue to keep a close watch on markets throughout the country to see how things track.”

Counties were considered more or less at risk based on the percentage of homes facing possible foreclosure, the portion with mortgage balances that exceeded estimated property values, the percentage of average local wages required to pay for major home ownership expenses on median-priced single-family homes and local unemployment rates. The conclusions were drawn from an analysis of the most recent home affordability, equity and foreclosure reports prepared by ATTOM. Unemployment rates came from federal government data. Rankings were based on a combination of those four categories in 578 counties around the United States with sufficient data to analyze in the third quarter of 2024. Counties were ranked in each category, from lowest to highest, with the overall conclusion based on a combination of the four ranks. See below for the full methodology.

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Significant differences in risk continue around the U.S. at a time when market forces could combine to push home values up even further or tamp them down.

Vulnerable housing markets clustered around Chicago, New York City and inland California
The metropolitan areas around New York, NY, and Chicago, IL, as well as broad swaths of California, had 24 of the 50 U.S. counties considered most vulnerable in the third quarter of 2024 to housing market troubles. The counties were among 578 around the nation with enough data to analyze.

The most at-risk counties included Cook, Kane, Kendall, McHenry and Will counties in Illinois and Lake County in Indiana, two in New York City (Kings County, which covers Brooklyn, and New York County, which covers Manhattan) and three in the New York City suburbs (Essex, Passaic and Sussex counties, all in northern New Jersey).

Another 13 were in California: Butte County (Chico), Contra Costa County (outside Oakland), El Dorado County (outside Sacramento), Humboldt County (Eureka) and Solano County (outside Sacramento) in the northern part of the state, plus Kern County (Bakersfield), Kings County (outside Fresno), Madera County (outside Fresno), Merced County, San Joaquin County (Stockton) and Stanislas County (Modesto) in central California. Two others, Riverside and San Bernardino counties, were in southern California.

Worse levels of affordability, underwater mortgages, foreclosures and unemployment continue in most-at-risk markets
Major home-ownership costs (mortgage payments, property taxes and insurance) on median-priced single-family homes and condos were considered seriously unaffordable in 30 of the 50 counties deemed most vulnerable to market drop-offs in the third quarter of 2024. That means those expenses consumed at least 43 percent of average local wages. Nationwide, major expenses on typical homes sold in the third quarter required 34 percent of average local wages, a level also above basic affordability benchmarks.

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The highest percentages in the most at-risk markets were in Kings County (Brooklyn), NY (108 percent of average local wages needed for major ownership costs); Riverside County, CA (70.2 percent); El Dorado County, CA (outside Sacramento) (66.3 percent); Passaic County, NJ (outside New York City) (65.9 percent) and New York County (Manhattan), NY (65.1 percent).

At least 6 percent of residential mortgages were underwater in the third quarter of 2024 in 23 of the 50 most-at-risk counties. Nationwide, 5.5 percent of mortgages fell into that category, with homeowners owing more on their mortgages than the estimated value of their properties. Those with the highest underwater rates among the 50 most at-risk counties were St. Clair County, IL (outside St. Louis, MO) (15 percent underwater); Tangipahoa Parish, LA (east of Baton Rouge) (13.7 percent); Pinal County, AZ (outside Phoenix) (12.4 percent); Philadelphia County, PA (11.9 percent) and Marion County, FL (outside Gainesville) (11 percent).

More than one of every 1,000 residential properties faced a foreclosure action in the third quarter of 2024 in 35 of the 50 most vulnerable counties. Nationwide, one in 1,618 homes were in that position. The highest foreclosure-case rates in those counties were in Charlotte County (Punta Gorda), FL (one in 449 residential properties facing possible foreclosure); Osceola County, FL (outside Orlando) (one in 473); Dorchester County, SC (outside Charleston) (one in 509); Cumberland County (Vineland), NJ (one in 571) and Warren County, NJ (outside Allentown, PA) (one in 574).

The August 2024 unemployment rate was at least 5 percent in 34 of the 50 most at-risk counties, while the nationwide figure stood at 4.2 percent. The highest rates were in Merced County, CA (9.1 percent); Kern County (Bakersfield), CA (8.7 percent); Kings County, CA (outside Fresno) (8.2 percent); Cumberland County (Vineland), NJ (7.7 percent) and Madera County, CA (outside Fresno) (7.4 percent).

South has largest portion of counties least at risk
Twenty-two of the 50 counties considered least vulnerable to housing market problems from among the 578 reviewed in the third-quarter report were in the South. Another 13 were in Midwest, followed by 11 in the Northeast and just four in the West.

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Tennessee had eight of the least at-risk counties in the third quarter: They included Rutherford and Williamson counties in the Nashville metro area, Blount and Knox County in the Knoxville metro area, Hamilton County (Chattanooga), Bradley County (outside Chattanooga), Sullivan County (Kingsport) and Washington County (Johnson City).

Wisconsin had seven. They were Brown County (Green Bay), Outagamie County (outside Green Bay), Dane County (Madison), Rock County (outside Madison), Eau Claire County, La Crosse County and Winnebago County (Oshkosh).

Less-vulnerable counties aided by better market conditions
Major ownership costs on median-priced single-family homes and condos were seriously unaffordable in only 17 of the 50 counties that were considered least vulnerable to market problems in the third quarter of 2024 (compared to 30 of the most at-risk counties).

The lowest portions of wages required for home ownership were in Potter County (Amarillo), TX (19.1 percent); Oswego County, NY (outside Syracuse) (21.8 percent); Sullivan County (Kingsport), TN (25.9 percent); Shawnee County (Topeka), KS (26.5 percent) and Madison County (Huntsville), AL (26.9 percent).

More than 6 percent of residential mortgages were underwater in the third quarter of 2024 (with owners owing more than their properties were worth) in only one of the 50 least-at-risk counties. Those with the lowest rates were Chittenden County (Burlington), VT (0.8 percent underwater); Loudoun County, VA (outside Washington, DC) (1.6 percent); Rockingham County (Portsmouth), NH (1.9 percent); Henrico County (Richmond), VA (2 percent) and Hillsborough County (Manchester), NH (2 percent).

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More than one in 1,000 residential properties faced a foreclosure action during the third quarter of 2024 in none of the least-at-risk counties. Those with the lowest rates were Yellowstone County (Billings), MT (one in 72,252 residential properties faced possible foreclosure); Missoula County, MT (one in 55,084); Berkeley County (Martinsburg), WV (one in 25,646); Medina County, OH (outside Akron) (one in 18,785) and Chittenden County (Burlington), VT (one in 18,302).

The August 2024 unemployment rate was less than the national level of 4.2 percent in 48 of the 50 least-at-risk counties. The lowest rates among those counties were in Dane County (Madison), WI (2.1 percent); Chittenden County (Burlington), VT (2.1 percent); La Crosse County, WI (2.2 percent); Outagamie County, WI (2.3 percent) and Cumberland County (Portland) ME (2.3 percent).

Report methodology
The ATTOM Special Market Impact Report is based on ATTOM’s third-quarter 2024 residential foreclosure, home affordability and underwater property reports, plus August 2024 unemployment figures from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. (Press releases for affordability, foreclosure and underwater-property reports show the methodology for each.) Counties with sufficient data to analyze were ranked based on the third-quarter percentage of residential properties with a foreclosure filing, the percentage of average local wages needed to afford the major expenses of owning a median-priced home and the percentage of properties with outstanding mortgage balances that exceeded their estimated market values, along with August 2024 county-level unemployment rates. Ranks then were added up to develop a composite ranking across all four categories. Equal weight was given to each category. Counties with the lowest composite rank were considered most vulnerable to housing market problems. Those with the highest composite rank were considered least vulnerable.

About ATTOM
ATTOM provides premium property data and analytics that power a myriad of solutions that improve transparency, innovation, digitization and efficiency in a data-driven economy. ATTOM multi-sources property tax, deed, mortgage, foreclosure, environmental risk, natural hazard, and neighborhood data for more than 155 million U.S. residential and commercial properties covering 99 percent of the nation’s population. A rigorous data management process involving more than 20 steps validates, standardizes, and enhances the real estate data collected by ATTOM, assigning each property record with a persistent, unique ID — the ATTOM ID. The 30TB ATTOM Data Warehouse fuels innovation in many industries including mortgage, real estate, insurance, marketing, government and more through flexible data delivery solutions that include ATTOM Cloudbulk file licensesproperty data APIsreal estate market trendsproperty navigator and more. Also, introducing our newest innovative solution, making property data more readily accessible and optimized for AI applications – AI-Ready Solutions.

Media Contact:
Megan Hunt
megan.hunt@attomdata.com

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Data and Report Licensing:
datareports@attomdata.com

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NJ ex-fireman ‘ready for war’ when he launched into violent rampage triggered by breakup: prosecutors

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NJ ex-fireman ‘ready for war’ when he launched into violent rampage triggered by breakup: prosecutors


A crazed ex-fireman allegedly launched into a violent rampage after his ex-girlfriend dumped him — and was “ready for war” when he drove eight hours intending to kill her family in New Jersey, according to prosecutors.

Brian John Lanzim, 37, was armed with two guns and a bulletproof vest when he headed from Bangor, Maine to South Toms River, after the mother of his two kids broke up with him and filed a temporary restraining order against him, authorities said.

He allegedly wanted to kill off his ex’s family to get custody of his kids, according to prosecutors — but his lawyer claimed he was actually trying to die “by suicide by cops,” according to Patch.com.

Brian Lanzim allegedly was armed and dangerous when he approached the home. Facebook/Brian Lanzim

“He absolutely f–ked up. He f–ked up big time,” Lanzim’s good friend, who asked not to be named, told The Post.

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The former Toms River firefighter allegedly sent terrifying threats to his ex on April 29 — letting her know he was armed, dangerous and on his way over.

“If your father is there I’m going to take him out” and beat him “pulseless,” he allegedly told the woman, as Ocean County Judge Pamela M. Snyder read aloud in court Friday morning.

“You don’t know crazy yet,” he also allegedly warned his ex during a chilling FaceTime call, NJ.com reported.

The people inside the home he was targeting fled the scene and alerted police long before he arrived, authorities said.

When Lanzim showed up after 9:40 p.m., he allegedly floored his Toyota 4Runner over the lawn in a sick attempt to run over the waiting cops, according to the Ocean County Prosecutor’s Office.

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He was booked into Ocean County Jail. Ocean County Corrections

The officers then dove behind a fence and watched as gun-wielding Lanzim pounded on a locked door of the vacant house, prosecutors said.

“Brian, put it down!” one of the Toms River police officers demanded, according to NJ.com.

“No!” Lanzim resisted, per the body camera footage.

Police then fired at Lanzim, striking him in his hand and pelvis nonfatality. He was taken to Jersey Shore University Medical Center in Neptune before being moved to Ocean County Jail.

Investigators found a loaded rifle and a large amount of ammunition magazines in his car, prosecutors said. He reportedly had a handgun on him when he was shot.

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He appeared in court Friday for his detention hearing. Thomas P. Costello/Asbury Park Press / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

He’s been charged with three counts of attempted murder, two counts of weapons possession for an unlawful purpose, unlawful use of body armor, burglary, terroristic threats and 22 counts of possession of a large capacity of ammunition magazines.

“He was ready for war,” Assistant Prosecutor Mara Brater said at his detention hearing — warning that if the victims hadn’t fled the home and called police before he arrived, he would have committed even more heinous crimes.

Brater went on to claim that Lanzim’s sinister plan was to kill or harm his ex’s family so he could get full custody.

But Lanzim’s lawyer Marissa Koerner brazenly argued his alleged violent outburst was caused by a mental breakdown triggered by the breakup. He also has bipolar disorder and was in treatment for it, she said.

“‘I f–king lost her, man. Tell her and the boys I love them,’” Lanzim allegedly said, per an affidavit Koerner read aloud.

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“He loves his family,” she argued.

By wearing a bulletproof vest, Lanzim was trying to “force a kill shot to the head” during his heated exchange with police, the lawyer told the court.

But Brater shot down these claims — alleging that his targets begged him not to go through with his horrifying plot.

Lanzim was a firefighter who moved to Maine for another job. Facebook/Brian Lanzim

He also allegedly has a track-record of violence — including an instance where he pulled a gun on his ex and said, “If I can’t have you, no one can.”

The judge ordered that Lanzim will remain in custody awaiting trial, according to court records. He’s due back in court on May 18.

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Lanzim was a fireman and EMT in Ocean County for about 18 years before heading to Bangor in September 2025 for a new job.

“He couldn’t find employment in New Jersey,” his close friend claimed. “I’m not sure what was going on, I guess things fell apart up there [in Bangor].”

Lanzim’s friend spoke with him just days before the incident.

“I had messaged him and asked him if he was okay. He said no. I said, ‘does it have to do with the kid’s mother?’ And he said yes,” the man said.

“I asked, ‘you need me to call you?’ and he was like, ‘I’m okay, I’m just at Applebee’s trying to find the bottom of the glass right now.’”

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The next time he heard Lanzim’s name was when he made headlines for the alleged horrors.

“I hope that kid [Lanzim] gets the help he needs,” the friend said. “Brian sometimes doesn’t act like an adult, and where he is now and where he’s going to be going, he has no choice but to. I would say man up.”

Lanzim’s attorney did not respond to a request for comment.



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Woman charged with theft for taking dog outside N.J. home, police say

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Woman charged with theft for taking dog outside N.J. home, police say


A woman has been charged with theft for taking a dog outside a Clifton, New Jersey, home in April, police say.

Last month, William Chan told CBS News New York his dog, a 7-year-old Shih Tzu-Yorkshire Terrier mix named Rocky, somehow got out of the house on April 5 while his nephew was dog-sitting.

The Clifton Police Department said investigators determined that while Rocky was loose, he ran down the street and was running in or near the road at times.

Video shows Rocky did eventually return to his own yard, and a child holding a blanket can be seen chasing the dog before a woman gets out of a black SUV parked in the road. Rocky then runs onto the back porch of his home, where the woman and child corner him, grab him with a blanket, take him back to the SUV, and drive away.

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The family said Rocky was wearing a harness and ID tag at the time.

Police said the woman did not make any attempt to talk to anyone inside the home or any neighbors, and neither animal control nor police received any calls about a loose dog being found on that day.

Chan called police on April 6 to report that Rocky had possibly been stolen, and investigators were later able to identify 29-year-old Mery Cepeda-Chevalier, of Newark, as a person of interest.

Officers spotted Cepeda-Chevalier’s vehicle in Passaic on April 8 and pulled her over, police said.

According to police, Cepeda-Chevalier cooperated with detectives, admitted she had Rocky, and agreed to have the detectives follow her back to her home. She then handed over the dog, and detectives reunited Rocky with his family.

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On Thursday, Cepeda-Chevalier was charged via summons with one count of theft of a domestic companion animal.



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Browns Hand Out New Jersey Uniform Numbers for All 10 Draftees, Plus a Dozen UDFAs

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Browns Hand Out New Jersey Uniform Numbers for All 10 Draftees, Plus a Dozen UDFAs


The Cleveland Browns announced jersey numbers for all 10 draftees, as the team’s rookie minicamp is underway at the CrossCountry Mortgage Campus. 

While First-round picks Spencer Fano and KC Concepcion had already shown off their numbers — 55 and 17, respectively .. at their introductory press conference a few days ago, the jersey numbers for other rookies hadn’t been disclosed until today. 

Second-round wideout Denzel Boston will now wear No. 12, quarterback Shedeur Sanders’ old number. Sanders, a fifth-rounder last year, had previously announced a switch to his old college No. 2 beforehand. 

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Fifth-round linebacker Justin Jefferson has been assigned jersey No. 10, which was used by last year’s second-round running back Quinshon Judkins. No announcement has been made yet on Judkins possibly changing his number, though. He wore No. 1 at Ohio State.

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Not all jersey numbers are available in Cleveland, as the team has officially retired five of them: 14 (Otto Graham), 32 (Jim Brown), 45 (Ernie Davis), 46 (Don Fleming) and 76 (Lou Groza).

Jersey

Round

Pick

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Name

Position

School

55

1

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9

Spencer Fano

OT

Utah

17

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1

24

KC Concepcion

WR

Texas A&M

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12

2

39

Denzel Boston

WR

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Washington

28

2

58

Emmanuel McNeil-Warren

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S

Toledo

58

3

86

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Austin Barber

OT

Florida

52

5

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146

Parker Brailsford

C

Alabama

10

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5

149

Justin Jefferson

LB

Alabama

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18

5

170

Joe Royer

TE

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Cincinnati

15

6

182

Taylen Green

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QB

Arkansas

48

7

248

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Carsen Ryan

TE

BYU

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At this point in time, eiht of the 10 rookies drafted by Cleveland in last months 2026 NFL Draft have signed their contracts. The only still-unsigned draftees are wideout Concepcion and safety Emmanuel McNeil-Warren.

In these cases, players sign a participation agreement that covers the team’s liability during the event, ensuring players are covered for injury.

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Browns officially add 12 undrafted free agents

Cleveland also announced the formal signing of 12 undrafted free agents to complete it’s rookie class. 

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The most notable name on this list appears to be Logan Fano, a defensive end out of Utah who just happens to be Spencer Fano’s brother. 

All undrafted free agent rookies were also assigned their numbers for the Browns’ rookie minicamp.

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Jersey

Name

Position

School

29

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Davon Booth

RB

Mississippi State

34

Zion Washington

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S

Boise State

36

TJ Harden

RB

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SMU

36

Wes Pahl

P

Oklahoma State

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38

Kole Wilson

WR

Baylor

43

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Nate Evans

CB

Delaware

47

DeCarlos Nicholson

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CB

USC

60

Izavion Miller

OT

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Auburn

64

Tyreak Sapp

DE

Florida

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66

Bernard Gooden

DT

LSU

90

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Khordae Sydnor

DE

Vanderbilt

97

Logan Fano

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DE

Utah

Other players that have reportedly accepted invites to Browns’ rookie minicamp include Utah State quarterback Bryson Barnes, West Virginia linebacker Reid Carrico, Fordham linebacker James Conway, and Bowling Green tight end Jyrin Johnson.

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