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HOUSING MARKETS FACING GREATER RISK OF DECLINE CONCENTRATED IN CALIFORNIA, NEW JERSEY, ILLINOIS AND FLORIDA

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HOUSING MARKETS FACING GREATER RISK OF DECLINE CONCENTRATED IN CALIFORNIA, NEW JERSEY, ILLINOIS AND FLORIDA


New York City and Chicago Areas More Vulnerable to Drop-offs Along with Inland California; South Still Faces Relatively Small Exposure;

IRVINE, Calif., Dec. 5, 2024 /PRNewswire/ — ATTOM, a leading curator of land, property data, and real estate analytics, today released its latest Special Housing Market Impact Risk Report spotlighting county-level housing markets around the United States that are more or less vulnerable to declines, based on home affordability, equity and other measures in the third quarter of 2024. The report shows that California, New Jersey and Illinois once again had high concentrations of the most-at-risk markets in the country, with parts of Florida also joining that mix. Less-vulnerable markets continued to be clustered in the South region of the nation.

The third-quarter patterns – derived from gaps in affordability, underwater mortgages, foreclosures and unemployment – revealed that two-thirds of the 50 counties around the U.S. considered most exposed to potential fallbacks were in California, Florida, Illinois and New Jersey. Florida was a new addition to that group in the third quarter after earlier periods when it had fewer markets making the list of areas at elevated risk of downturns.

County-level housing markets on the latest list included six in and around Chicago, IL, five in or near New York City and four in southern New Jersey. Another 13 were in California, mostly inland from the Pacific coast. The rest were scattered largely around the Northeast, South and Midwest.

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At the other end of the risk spectrum, more than half the markets considered least likely to decline fell in Virginia, Wisconsin, Tennessee, Montana and New Hampshire. They included four in the Washington, DC, area.

The latest gaps come as the nation’s 13-year housing-market boom, along with the broader economy, continue to affect different parts of the country in different ways.

An almost unrelenting increase in home prices has surpassed most wage gains around the country to varying degrees. That has led to home ownership costs consuming more than triple the portion of average wages in some parts of the country compared to others. Similar disparities can be found in several other measures: unemployment rates, the level of homeowners facing foreclosure and the portion owing more on their mortgages than their homes are worth.

“The recent market risk patterns changed a bit in the third quarter, with some new areas making the list of places more or less exposed to downfalls. But the big picture remained pretty much the same around the country as differences in important metrics helped produce varying pockets of vulnerability,” said Rob Barber, CEO at ATTOM. “As with past reports, this one is not meant to suggest any given area is about to fall or is immune from problems. Rather, it spotlights locations that look to be more or less able to withstand significant changes in market conditions. We will continue to keep a close watch on markets throughout the country to see how things track.”

Counties were considered more or less at risk based on the percentage of homes facing possible foreclosure, the portion with mortgage balances that exceeded estimated property values, the percentage of average local wages required to pay for major home ownership expenses on median-priced single-family homes and local unemployment rates. The conclusions were drawn from an analysis of the most recent home affordability, equity and foreclosure reports prepared by ATTOM. Unemployment rates came from federal government data. Rankings were based on a combination of those four categories in 578 counties around the United States with sufficient data to analyze in the third quarter of 2024. Counties were ranked in each category, from lowest to highest, with the overall conclusion based on a combination of the four ranks. See below for the full methodology.

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Significant differences in risk continue around the U.S. at a time when market forces could combine to push home values up even further or tamp them down.

Vulnerable housing markets clustered around Chicago, New York City and inland California
The metropolitan areas around New York, NY, and Chicago, IL, as well as broad swaths of California, had 24 of the 50 U.S. counties considered most vulnerable in the third quarter of 2024 to housing market troubles. The counties were among 578 around the nation with enough data to analyze.

The most at-risk counties included Cook, Kane, Kendall, McHenry and Will counties in Illinois and Lake County in Indiana, two in New York City (Kings County, which covers Brooklyn, and New York County, which covers Manhattan) and three in the New York City suburbs (Essex, Passaic and Sussex counties, all in northern New Jersey).

Another 13 were in California: Butte County (Chico), Contra Costa County (outside Oakland), El Dorado County (outside Sacramento), Humboldt County (Eureka) and Solano County (outside Sacramento) in the northern part of the state, plus Kern County (Bakersfield), Kings County (outside Fresno), Madera County (outside Fresno), Merced County, San Joaquin County (Stockton) and Stanislas County (Modesto) in central California. Two others, Riverside and San Bernardino counties, were in southern California.

Worse levels of affordability, underwater mortgages, foreclosures and unemployment continue in most-at-risk markets
Major home-ownership costs (mortgage payments, property taxes and insurance) on median-priced single-family homes and condos were considered seriously unaffordable in 30 of the 50 counties deemed most vulnerable to market drop-offs in the third quarter of 2024. That means those expenses consumed at least 43 percent of average local wages. Nationwide, major expenses on typical homes sold in the third quarter required 34 percent of average local wages, a level also above basic affordability benchmarks.

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The highest percentages in the most at-risk markets were in Kings County (Brooklyn), NY (108 percent of average local wages needed for major ownership costs); Riverside County, CA (70.2 percent); El Dorado County, CA (outside Sacramento) (66.3 percent); Passaic County, NJ (outside New York City) (65.9 percent) and New York County (Manhattan), NY (65.1 percent).

At least 6 percent of residential mortgages were underwater in the third quarter of 2024 in 23 of the 50 most-at-risk counties. Nationwide, 5.5 percent of mortgages fell into that category, with homeowners owing more on their mortgages than the estimated value of their properties. Those with the highest underwater rates among the 50 most at-risk counties were St. Clair County, IL (outside St. Louis, MO) (15 percent underwater); Tangipahoa Parish, LA (east of Baton Rouge) (13.7 percent); Pinal County, AZ (outside Phoenix) (12.4 percent); Philadelphia County, PA (11.9 percent) and Marion County, FL (outside Gainesville) (11 percent).

More than one of every 1,000 residential properties faced a foreclosure action in the third quarter of 2024 in 35 of the 50 most vulnerable counties. Nationwide, one in 1,618 homes were in that position. The highest foreclosure-case rates in those counties were in Charlotte County (Punta Gorda), FL (one in 449 residential properties facing possible foreclosure); Osceola County, FL (outside Orlando) (one in 473); Dorchester County, SC (outside Charleston) (one in 509); Cumberland County (Vineland), NJ (one in 571) and Warren County, NJ (outside Allentown, PA) (one in 574).

The August 2024 unemployment rate was at least 5 percent in 34 of the 50 most at-risk counties, while the nationwide figure stood at 4.2 percent. The highest rates were in Merced County, CA (9.1 percent); Kern County (Bakersfield), CA (8.7 percent); Kings County, CA (outside Fresno) (8.2 percent); Cumberland County (Vineland), NJ (7.7 percent) and Madera County, CA (outside Fresno) (7.4 percent).

South has largest portion of counties least at risk
Twenty-two of the 50 counties considered least vulnerable to housing market problems from among the 578 reviewed in the third-quarter report were in the South. Another 13 were in Midwest, followed by 11 in the Northeast and just four in the West.

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Tennessee had eight of the least at-risk counties in the third quarter: They included Rutherford and Williamson counties in the Nashville metro area, Blount and Knox County in the Knoxville metro area, Hamilton County (Chattanooga), Bradley County (outside Chattanooga), Sullivan County (Kingsport) and Washington County (Johnson City).

Wisconsin had seven. They were Brown County (Green Bay), Outagamie County (outside Green Bay), Dane County (Madison), Rock County (outside Madison), Eau Claire County, La Crosse County and Winnebago County (Oshkosh).

Less-vulnerable counties aided by better market conditions
Major ownership costs on median-priced single-family homes and condos were seriously unaffordable in only 17 of the 50 counties that were considered least vulnerable to market problems in the third quarter of 2024 (compared to 30 of the most at-risk counties).

The lowest portions of wages required for home ownership were in Potter County (Amarillo), TX (19.1 percent); Oswego County, NY (outside Syracuse) (21.8 percent); Sullivan County (Kingsport), TN (25.9 percent); Shawnee County (Topeka), KS (26.5 percent) and Madison County (Huntsville), AL (26.9 percent).

More than 6 percent of residential mortgages were underwater in the third quarter of 2024 (with owners owing more than their properties were worth) in only one of the 50 least-at-risk counties. Those with the lowest rates were Chittenden County (Burlington), VT (0.8 percent underwater); Loudoun County, VA (outside Washington, DC) (1.6 percent); Rockingham County (Portsmouth), NH (1.9 percent); Henrico County (Richmond), VA (2 percent) and Hillsborough County (Manchester), NH (2 percent).

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More than one in 1,000 residential properties faced a foreclosure action during the third quarter of 2024 in none of the least-at-risk counties. Those with the lowest rates were Yellowstone County (Billings), MT (one in 72,252 residential properties faced possible foreclosure); Missoula County, MT (one in 55,084); Berkeley County (Martinsburg), WV (one in 25,646); Medina County, OH (outside Akron) (one in 18,785) and Chittenden County (Burlington), VT (one in 18,302).

The August 2024 unemployment rate was less than the national level of 4.2 percent in 48 of the 50 least-at-risk counties. The lowest rates among those counties were in Dane County (Madison), WI (2.1 percent); Chittenden County (Burlington), VT (2.1 percent); La Crosse County, WI (2.2 percent); Outagamie County, WI (2.3 percent) and Cumberland County (Portland) ME (2.3 percent).

Report methodology
The ATTOM Special Market Impact Report is based on ATTOM’s third-quarter 2024 residential foreclosure, home affordability and underwater property reports, plus August 2024 unemployment figures from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. (Press releases for affordability, foreclosure and underwater-property reports show the methodology for each.) Counties with sufficient data to analyze were ranked based on the third-quarter percentage of residential properties with a foreclosure filing, the percentage of average local wages needed to afford the major expenses of owning a median-priced home and the percentage of properties with outstanding mortgage balances that exceeded their estimated market values, along with August 2024 county-level unemployment rates. Ranks then were added up to develop a composite ranking across all four categories. Equal weight was given to each category. Counties with the lowest composite rank were considered most vulnerable to housing market problems. Those with the highest composite rank were considered least vulnerable.

About ATTOM
ATTOM provides premium property data and analytics that power a myriad of solutions that improve transparency, innovation, digitization and efficiency in a data-driven economy. ATTOM multi-sources property tax, deed, mortgage, foreclosure, environmental risk, natural hazard, and neighborhood data for more than 155 million U.S. residential and commercial properties covering 99 percent of the nation’s population. A rigorous data management process involving more than 20 steps validates, standardizes, and enhances the real estate data collected by ATTOM, assigning each property record with a persistent, unique ID — the ATTOM ID. The 30TB ATTOM Data Warehouse fuels innovation in many industries including mortgage, real estate, insurance, marketing, government and more through flexible data delivery solutions that include ATTOM Cloudbulk file licensesproperty data APIsreal estate market trendsproperty navigator and more. Also, introducing our newest innovative solution, making property data more readily accessible and optimized for AI applications – AI-Ready Solutions.

Media Contact:
Megan Hunt
megan.hunt@attomdata.com

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Data and Report Licensing:
datareports@attomdata.com

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New Jersey

Historical marker recognizing Lawnside, New Jersey, to be unveiled Friday

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Historical marker recognizing Lawnside, New Jersey, to be unveiled Friday


From Camden and Cherry Hill to Trenton and the Jersey Shore, what about life in New Jersey do you want WHYY News to cover? Let us know.

The borough of Lawnside in Camden County will be honored with a historical marker from the New Jersey Historical Commission as part of the state’s Black Heritage Trail.

A ceremony unveiling the marker will take place at 10 a.m. Friday at Lawnside Borough Hall on Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. Road.

Marsharee Wright, aide to Lawnside Mayor Mary Ann Wardlow and long-time resident, said everyone is thrilled about the marker unveiling.

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“We’ve invited the entire community and neighboring towns to come share the celebration with us,” Wright said.

Linda Shockley, president of the Lawnside Historical Society, said it’s “an extreme honor” for the borough to be included in the state’s program, especially as Lawnside is amid a year-long celebration of its centennial.

“It really lifts our profile and hopefully more people will understand and know what Lawnside is about and what it means in the nation,” Shockley said.

Lawnside was one of six sites selected in Camden County in 2024, including “The Point,” a historic Black neighborhood in Haddonfield. Its marker was unveiled last June.

During the ceremony, the borough’s history will be showcased, along with the original documents signed by Gov. A. Harry Moore in 1926, which made way for the borough’s creation.

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Though there are many Black enclaves in South Jersey, the borough is the state’s only incorporated antebellum Black community. First known as Free Haven, and later Snow Hill, it was a stop on the Underground Railroad. Peter Mott built a three-floor dwelling in 1844 that was once part of sprawling farmland where he helped slaves escape.

Mott’s house, now owned by the Lawnside Historical Society, serves as an Underground Railroad museum.



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Is ICE giving up on Roxbury detention center? NJ leaders laud report

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Is ICE giving up on Roxbury detention center? NJ leaders laud report


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  • State leaders were celebrating a New York Times report that federal officials are considering ending plans for ICE dentention center in Morris County.

Federal officials are considering abandoning plans for a controversial immigration detention facility in Roxbury, New Jersey, according to a June 18 report by The New York Times, prompting local leaders and state officials to declare a victory after months of legal and political opposition.

The proposed facility, a warehouse property purchased to serve as an Immigration and Customs Enforcement detention center, faced intense criticism from local residents, environmental advocates and elected officials who argued the site was unsuitable for housing detainees.

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In a joint statement issued Thursday, Gov. Mikie Sherrill and Attorney General Jennifer Davenport said the Department of Homeland Security appeared to be backing away from the project following legal challenges that halted development.

“Today the New York Times is reporting that the U.S. Department of Homeland Security is backing down on its mass detention center in Roxbury,” the statement said. “That is a big win for public safety, for the township of Roxbury, and for New Jersey.”

According to the Times report, the Roxbury facility is one of seven ICE is planning to dispense with by transferring ownership to other federal agencies or selling them. 

Opponents argued the warehouse was designed as a logistics facility and lacked the infrastructure necessary to support a large detention center. They also raised concerns about the potential strain on local water and sewage systems and the impact on environmentally sensitive land surrounding the site.

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State officials said they joined Roxbury Township in court to challenge the project, contending that federal plans violated local regulations and posed risks to the community.

“DHS’s plans were always illegal,” the statement said. “The Roxbury warehouse is a logistics center fit for packages, not thousands of people.”

Rep. Rob Menendez said in a statement on Thursday: “We are working to confirm reporting that ICE is abandoning its Roxbury warehouse plans, but if true, this would be big news. From day one, we have fought to stop this facility, bringing together thousands of New Jerseyans in opposition. Now we are on the cusp of an important win for our state.” 

The detention center was expected to become part of the federal government’s broader immigration enforcement and detention network. However, the project became a flashpoint in New Jersey, drawing opposition from both local officials and residents concerned about public safety, environmental impacts and the facility’s compatibility with surrounding land uses.

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Federal officials have not publicly confirmed whether the property will be sold or formally removed from consideration. The Department of Homeland Security has not commented on the reported change in plans.

Opponents vowed to continue monitoring the situation until the project is officially terminated.

“This isn’t a partisan issue,” the statement said. “We’re grateful for our partnership with the Roxbury community as we keep DHS’s feet to the fire to ensure this facility is never opened.”



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NJ rabbi faces lawsuit for sexual assault after giving financial aid | The Jerusalem Post

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NJ rabbi faces lawsuit for sexual assault after giving financial aid | The Jerusalem Post


A rabbi in Ocean County is being sued by a woman who claims he sexually assaulted her when she came to him for financial help, then defamed her on a website and in fliers he posted near her children’s school.

Avraham Appel, of Jackson, abused his position as a trusted community leader to sexually assault and exploit the woman, an Israeli immigrant who came to him as a single mother struggling to pay bills, according to the lawsuit, filed in the Superior Court of Ocean County.

Appel is a prominent rabbi and Rosh Kollel, or head of a Jewish institute for advanced Talmudic study, who is based in Lakewood and Jackson, according to court papers filed January 5.

Appel did not respond to calls to his home and cellphone seeking comment on the lawsuit.

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The woman claims she confided in one of her children’s schoolteachers in early 2020 that she was in significant financial distress and having trouble paying for daycare.

A NEW Jersey police car stands guard on November 1, 2017, in Paterson, New Jersey. (credit: EDUARDO MUNOZ ALVAREZ/AFP via Getty Images)

The teacher suggested she contact Appel, according to the suit.

In February 2020, Appel arranged to meet with the woman at a local Starbucks.

“During that meeting, Appel presented himself to (the woman) as a rabbi, mentor, advisor, and friend whom (the woman) could trust, confide in, and depend on,” the lawsuit states.

Appel, who had experience in real estate, allegedly offered the woman an opportunity to solicit investments on his behalf and to “draw,” or advance, money against future commissions.

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Rabbi issues payments to woman after alleged sexual assault

In June and July 2022, Appel issued six payments to the woman, totaling $20,000 and characterized as advances or loans. He also provided the woman with “financial assistance” so she could buy groceries and pay medical expenses and water bills, according to the suit.

The lawsuit claims most of the money was meant to buy the woman’s silence after he attacked her on June 1, 2022.

The suit alleges Appel visited the woman while she was alone at home and sexually assaulted her as she pleaded for him to stop.

“Appel was abusive and unrelenting. The more (the woman) pled for mercy, the more aggressive Appel became,” the suit alleges.

Before leaving her home, he allegedly ordered her to delete Ring camera footage that showed him arriving.

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In the months after the assault, Appel “forced himself upon” the woman and took sexual advantage of her on other occasions, the suit claims.

Appel also allegedly bombarded the woman with demands for sexual acts and sent her a barrage of text and WhatsApp messages containing crude and graphic sexual content.

“I want to squeeze your breasts,” one text allegedly said. In another, he sent the woman a photo of his penis, the suit alleges.

In July 2024, the woman met with another rabbi and shared evidence of the sexual assault and “other incidents involving Appel,” the suit claims.

Woman offered $50,000 for therapy after sexual assault

Appel later contacted his attorney and the two offered the woman $50,000 to cover her future therapy expenses.

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The money would be available only if the woman signed a release of any claims related to the assault and agreed to keep all incidents between them confidential, according to the suit.

The woman refused to accept the money or sign the agreement, the suit says.

Appel then launched a campaign to destroy the woman “personally and professionally,” according to the lawsuit.

On December 15, 2025, the woman became aware of a website with her photos that claimed she was “a danger to all Jews,” and warned the public to stay away from her, according to the complaint.

The website disclosed the woman’s address, claimed she stole money, and characterized her as a “thief.”

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Moreover, Appel and possibly others posted signs smearing the woman. The signs were posted at public locations throughout the community, including the school her two children attended, the suit alleges.

The lawsuit claims sexual assault, invasion of privacy, intentional infliction of emotional distress, defamation, and conspiracy.

The complaint also alleges Appel breached his duty as a rabbi to conduct himself with loyalty and in good faith.





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