Trump or Harris? How will various ethnic groups in North Jersey vote on election day?

Rhona Vega was planning to vote for President Joe Biden for another four-year term when she heard the news that he would step aside and had endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris to be the Democratic Party nominee for president. Vega said it was easy for her to accept the switch and she plans to vote for Harris, and she believes she will win.

“Folks are just fed up with nonsense,” said Vega, a Black woman from Teaneck married to a Latino man. “We need to get back to focusing on making sure this country is running correctly. That we’re thinking of everyone … we’re not dividing the country.”

Ronald Lin, a Taiwanese American who resides in Franklin Lakes, said he voted for Republican Donald Trump in the 2020 presidential election and plans to do so again on Election Day.

“I always voted for a candidate who made the most sense,” Lin said. “Most of the people who support Donald Trump, they like him because of his policies because they align with common sense.”

Is it possible that Trump will do better with voters from various ethnic groups in New Jersey on Election Day than in the 2020 presidential election?

Could Harris get more votes in various ethnic groups than Biden did in the Garden State four years ago?

As of Tuesday, both Harris and Trump had vice presidential running mates. Harris on Tuesday morning announced Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her VP choice. Trump’s running mate is Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance.

NorthJersey.com spoke to some voters from different ethnic backgrounds across North Jersey about why they would vote for either Harris or Trump.

By the numbers

The results of the 2020 presidential election in New Jersey showed that 71% of the total voters were white, 11% Black, 11% Latino, 3% Asian and 3% other. They were based on estimates from the VoteCast survey conducted for the Associated Press by the National Opinion Research Center at the University of Chicago the week before the 2020 election.

Trump captured 49% of the white vote and Biden received 50%. The former president got only 12% of the Black vote, while the current president took 86% of the Black vote. Trump did better with Latinos and Asians, at 27% and 23% respectively, but Biden still got the lion’s share of votes from both groups, with 72% Latino and 76% Asian.

Michael Unger, an associate professor of political science at Ramapo College, said Harris could be more appealing to Black and Asian voters as well as Latinos in New Jersey, not only because of her biracial background, but — especially among an Asian electorate — due to Rep. Andy Kim’s run for the Senate seat vacated by Bob Menendez after his conviction in July for accepting bribes.

“My guess would be that there could be an increase in turnout because of having an Asian American near the top of the ticket, which is very different from an indicted senator,” Unger said.

He said Republicans like Trump could appeal to Black, Latino and Asian voters in the coming election because members of those ethnic groups are not monoliths at the polls.

“There are different ideological strains or different ideological leanings among some members of these groups, and on social issues, say with African Americans, there’s more social conservatism,” Unger said.

Ronald Lin

Ronald Lin was destined to be a Republican. He was named after then-President Ronald Reagan by his parents, who were recent immigrants from Taiwan. Being part of the GOP stayed with him: He named his first child after Donald Trump and ran for office (but lost) on the Republican ticket for a seat on the Bergen County Board of Commissioners in 2021.

Lin, 42, said he is choosing to vote for Trump not based on how he appeals to him as an Asian American voter but based on Trump’s previous experience in the White House and what Lin said is his personality.

“I think a lot of people like Donald Trump because he’s a very likable guy and projects strength, as we all saw when he was almost assassinated,” Lin said. “Most people would probably have been ducking, but he stood up and pumped his fist and told the crowd to fight.”

Lin said he thought East Asians, such as those from Taiwan, would be more likely to vote for Trump, but South Asians, such as those from India, would vote for Harris. Trump appeals to conservative Asian Americans, because, Lin said, Trump believes in family values and law and order. However, he could see Harris affecting Trump’s vote total among Asians in New Jersey.

“Kamala Harris being on the presidential ticket and her ethnicity might put a dent to it,” Lin said. “There’s a large Indian American population in New Jersey that I suspect will probably overwhelmingly support Kamala Harris. So I think that might deflate the numbers a bit for Trump.”

Rhona Vega

Rhona Vega sees Kamala Harris getting more votes in Asian, Black and Latino communities in New Jersey than Joe Biden because of her record as a senator and as vice president.

“As a politician, the work she has done in all communities, I think it’s a no-brainer,” Vega said. “I think she will get more support than she probably ever thought she would get, and I think that’s beautiful.”

Vega, 59, said she is “proud of the enthusiasm” about Harris being the Democratic presidential nominee. She saw the enthusiasm firsthand on July 21 after Biden’s announcement, when she took part in a Zoom call that evening organized by the collective Win with Black Women, attended by over 44,000 Black women coming together with the goal of electing Harris as the first woman president and the first Black female and South Asian one. In the three hours of the call, more than $1.6 million was raised.

Vega said she also hopes that her fellow African Americans will channel their enthusiasm into getting to the voting booth in November, recalling Trump’s comments during the June 27 presidential debate in Atlanta when he referred falsely to immigrants taking jobs from Black workers.

“My husband was watching it, and I happened to walk in at that moment when he was saying, ‘Black jobs.’ I thought, ‘What in the world?’,” Vega said. “As Black people, as humans, we have one Black job, and that is to vote.”

Milan Patel

Milan Patel is a Montclair resident who lives with his wife, who is Jewish, and their two children. Patel, 50, born to Indian immigrant parents, said he would vote for Harris. He was energized yet nervous about her entrance into the presidential race because he didn’t have a lot of confidence in Biden’s serving another term if reelected.

“I would say a mixture of relief and maybe a little bit of anxiety, panic and excitement mixed together,” Patel said as he remembered how poorly she performed during her previous presidential run, in 2020.

But Patel is more open to her as a presidential candidate this time.

“When I have seen Harris speak recently, she seems to have really gained confidence and a much different tone in her speaking style and in her communication style, which was one of my concerns,” Patel said. “She was more polished than she was four years ago.”

Patel said he hopes to see Harris elected, as it would be an opportunity not only to see the first president of Indian heritage in his lifetime but also for his children to see a woman of Indian heritage as a president of the United States.

“I think it is inspiring and would make a good role model for them as well. It would show how far Asians have come in a relatively short time in this country,” Patel said.

Ricardo Kaulessar covers race, immigration, and culture for NorthJersey.com. For unlimited access to the most important news from your local community, please subscribe or activate your digital account today.

Email: kaulessar@northjersey.com

Twitter: @ricardokaul