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An apocryphal political axiom holds that there are “three tickets out of Iowa” — meaning that only three presidential candidates can feasibly advance out of the Iowa caucuses. That hasn’t always been true in the past, but Republicans are taking it literally in 2024. After Monday night’s Iowa caucuses, the GOP presidential primary is effectively down to three finalists: former President Donald Trump, who finished first in convincing fashion with 51 percent of the vote; Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who finished second with 21 percent; and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, who finished third with 19 percent.
The unfortunate fourth-place finisher was businessman Vivek Ramaswamy, who dropped out of the race after taking just 8 percent of the vote. Now, if you’d have told Ramaswamy when he launched his campaign a year ago that he’d finish fourth in Iowa, he’d probably have seen that as a remarkable performance. The 38-year-old pharmaceutical entrepreneur entered the race without any political experience, and initially there was no reason to believe he’d make any more of a splash than any of the hundreds of anonymous presidential candidates who run every cycle.
But Ramaswamy parlayed his wealth, charisma and energy on the campaign trail (he held over 460 campaign events, by far the most in the field) into, if not the top, then the middle tier of the GOP field. By last summer, he rose as high as 12 percent in 538’s national polling average, good for third place behind Trump and DeSantis. But his bubble burst as voters got to know him better and his favorability ratings declined — probably with the help of some poorly received debate performances.
Ramaswamy departs the race with only 4 percent support nationally and 5 percent in soon-to-vote New Hampshire, so his withdrawal won’t make a huge impact on the race. However, it could help Trump’s campaign on the margins, given that most Ramaswamy supporters will probably now switch their allegiance to the former president. Ramaswamy endorsed Trump on his way out of the race Monday night, and the two were already closely ideologically aligned. According to an average of recent polls that asked Republican primary voters their second choice for president, a plurality — 42 percent — of Ramaswamy supporters nationwide said Trump.
It was a similar story in New Hampshire, where an average of 39 percent of Ramaswamy voters said Trump was their second choice. (A recent Emerson College/WHDH-TV poll was a notable outlier, showing Trump in third place among Ramaswamy supporters. However, all of these polling crosstabs have very small sample sizes, so wonky individual results aren’t too surprising.) And in New Hampshire, even a little bit of extra support could make a difference for Trump. According to our New Hampshire polling average, Trump is just 13 percentage points ahead of Haley in the Granite State, and all those polls were conducted before former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie dropped out of the race — a development that will probably help Haley.
538’s polling average of the 2024 Republican presidential primary race in New Hampshire.
538 Photo Illustration
If you simply give Trump 39 percent of Ramaswamy’s 5 percent support in New Hampshire, you could expect Trump to rise about 2 points in the state as a result of Ramaswamy’s withdrawal. And that’s before factoring in the impact of Ramaswamy’s endorsement of Trump, which could convince other ex-Ramaswamy supporters to opt for Trump too. In a world where Trump wins New Hampshire by only a couple points, Ramaswamy’s supporters may be the difference-maker.
Of course, Trump may not need the help. He’s coming off a huge Iowa win that could grant him momentum all on its own. Meanwhile, Haley’s third-place finish isn’t exactly rocket fuel for her campaign. All in all, Monday night’s developments were good for Trump’s chances of winning New Hampshire — which is big because it currently looks like his weakest state. If he wins there, there may be nothing left to stop him from winning every single primary of the 2024 cycle.
A Massachusetts man has been arrested after allegedly hitting a New Hampshire State Police cruiser during a chase that ended in Manchester.
Authorities arrested 27-year-old Alejandro Vargas of Lowell early Tuesday morning, they announced Wednesday. Police in Epping notified state police at 1:21 a.m. that a silver 2026 Chevrolet Silverado had fled from them.
Epping officers briefly pursued the truck and had last seen it heading west on Route 101. Police in Candia then reported seeing the same truck going 105 mph.
State police said a trooper tried to stop the truck at Exit 1 on Interstate 293 northbound, but the driver refused to pull over.
The driver got off I-293 on Arnold Street, a dead end, and tried to turn around. He allegedly hit a state police cruiser and two parked vehicles.
State police said the driver and a passenger got out and ran in opposite directions. Manchester police officers, who arrived to the scene with a drone, found and arrested the driver, identified as Vargas.
The passenger was not found. Police did not issue a description.
Vargas had an outstanding warrant from the U.S. Marshals Service, police said without giving details on why he was wanted.
In Tuesday’s incident, Vargas is facing a felony charge of reckless conduct with a deadly weapon and misdemeanor charges of simple assault, disobeying an officer, resisting arrest and conduct after an accident, as well as multiple unspecified violations.
Police said Vargas was expected to be arraigned Wednesday at Manchester District Court. It was not immediately clear if he had an attorney.
This holiday season, NHPR is proud to partner with the New Hampshire Food Bank to help provide meals to families in our community facing food insecurity.
When you make a gift to NHPR in December, you’re supporting more than local, independent journalism. You’re ensuring that essential news and stories are shared across the Granite State — stories that highlight the issues that matter most to New Hampshire residents, from local politics to culture, education, and community life. Your support helps us continue to produce thoughtful, in-depth reporting and to keep our community informed and engaged.
And this year, your generosity can have an even greater impact. By choosing ‘meals to the New Hampshire Food Bank’ in lieu of a tote bag or mug, you’ll help provide nutritious meals to those in need right here in our state. The New Hampshire Food Bank is the state’s largest hunger-relief organization, distributing millions of pounds of food annually to local food pantries, shelters, and meal programs.
When you choose ‘meals to the NHFB’ you’re helping to support families struggling with food insecurity, helping ensure no one in our community goes hungry this holiday season.
Support reliable news. Support your community. And help ensure more families have access to healthy, nourishing food.
Local News
Two members of the Mashpee Boy Scouts of America Troop 36 carried an injured woman down Mount Lafayette in New Hampshire over Indigenous Peoples’ Day weekend.
Brodie Perry and Jack Borowski, both seniors at Mashpee Middle-High School, were leading the troop’s annual hike in the White Mountains when they came across the injured woman, they told Boston.com.
The two scouts asked the woman and her family members, who were trying to carry her down, if they needed any help to which they said no, Borowski said. The woman’s legs were shaking, and her family kept dropping her as daylight quickly ran out, they noticed.
The troop followed behind the family for a while, and ultimately Borowski and Perry offered to carry her down.
It took the two scouts two hours to carry the woman two miles to the base of the mountain, they said.
“If we were to just keep walking and go to the bottom, I don’t know if they would get down, or if they did get down, they would definitely be injured even more than they were,” Perry said.
Both Borowski and Perry value the skills they learned in the Boy Scouts.
“As you begin, you’re someone who listens to the leaders … but as you go, you slowly become the person who’s leading. It’s a really good natural way to go from someone who’s like beginning to someone who’s truly teaching the people around you,” Perry said.
“I’ve developed a lot as a person. You get a lot of experience in leadership and survival skills and helping other people,” Borowski continued. “It’s just really good program to help improve you as a person.”
Borowski is already an Eagle Scout, the highest Boy Scout rank, and Perry is set to be named an Eagle Scout in the next month or so.
After high school graduation, Borowski plans to enlist in the military, and Perry wants to study engineering at a four-year college.
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