New Hampshire
Ramaswamy's withdrawal could help Trump win New Hampshire
An apocryphal political axiom holds that there are “three tickets out of Iowa” — meaning that only three presidential candidates can feasibly advance out of the Iowa caucuses. That hasn’t always been true in the past, but Republicans are taking it literally in 2024. After Monday night’s Iowa caucuses, the GOP presidential primary is effectively down to three finalists: former President Donald Trump, who finished first in convincing fashion with 51 percent of the vote; Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who finished second with 21 percent; and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, who finished third with 19 percent.
The unfortunate fourth-place finisher was businessman Vivek Ramaswamy, who dropped out of the race after taking just 8 percent of the vote. Now, if you’d have told Ramaswamy when he launched his campaign a year ago that he’d finish fourth in Iowa, he’d probably have seen that as a remarkable performance. The 38-year-old pharmaceutical entrepreneur entered the race without any political experience, and initially there was no reason to believe he’d make any more of a splash than any of the hundreds of anonymous presidential candidates who run every cycle.
But Ramaswamy parlayed his wealth, charisma and energy on the campaign trail (he held over 460 campaign events, by far the most in the field) into, if not the top, then the middle tier of the GOP field. By last summer, he rose as high as 12 percent in 538’s national polling average, good for third place behind Trump and DeSantis. But his bubble burst as voters got to know him better and his favorability ratings declined — probably with the help of some poorly received debate performances.
Ramaswamy departs the race with only 4 percent support nationally and 5 percent in soon-to-vote New Hampshire, so his withdrawal won’t make a huge impact on the race. However, it could help Trump’s campaign on the margins, given that most Ramaswamy supporters will probably now switch their allegiance to the former president. Ramaswamy endorsed Trump on his way out of the race Monday night, and the two were already closely ideologically aligned. According to an average of recent polls that asked Republican primary voters their second choice for president, a plurality — 42 percent — of Ramaswamy supporters nationwide said Trump.
It was a similar story in New Hampshire, where an average of 39 percent of Ramaswamy voters said Trump was their second choice. (A recent Emerson College/WHDH-TV poll was a notable outlier, showing Trump in third place among Ramaswamy supporters. However, all of these polling crosstabs have very small sample sizes, so wonky individual results aren’t too surprising.) And in New Hampshire, even a little bit of extra support could make a difference for Trump. According to our New Hampshire polling average, Trump is just 13 percentage points ahead of Haley in the Granite State, and all those polls were conducted before former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie dropped out of the race — a development that will probably help Haley.
538’s polling average of the 2024 Republican presidential primary race in New Hampshire.
538 Photo Illustration
If you simply give Trump 39 percent of Ramaswamy’s 5 percent support in New Hampshire, you could expect Trump to rise about 2 points in the state as a result of Ramaswamy’s withdrawal. And that’s before factoring in the impact of Ramaswamy’s endorsement of Trump, which could convince other ex-Ramaswamy supporters to opt for Trump too. In a world where Trump wins New Hampshire by only a couple points, Ramaswamy’s supporters may be the difference-maker.
Of course, Trump may not need the help. He’s coming off a huge Iowa win that could grant him momentum all on its own. Meanwhile, Haley’s third-place finish isn’t exactly rocket fuel for her campaign. All in all, Monday night’s developments were good for Trump’s chances of winning New Hampshire — which is big because it currently looks like his weakest state. If he wins there, there may be nothing left to stop him from winning every single primary of the 2024 cycle.
A Massachusetts man was flown to the hospital after he was struck by a car when he stepped out of his vehicle in the breakdown lane of Interstate 93 in Londonderry, New Hampshire, on Saturday morning.
State police say 40-year-old Felix Matos Medina, of Lawrence, had stopped on the right side of I-93 south at Exit 5 just before 11 a.m. to investigate a possible mechanical issue. He was struck shortly after he stepped out of his vehicle by a Chevrolet Malibu and sustained serious injuries.
Medina was taken by medical helicopter to Lahey Hospital and Medical Center in Burlington, Mass., police said. There was no immediate update on his condition.
I-93 southbound was closed near Exit 5 for about 30 minutes to facilitate the medical helicopter’s landing. One lane remained closed for several hours to accommodate crash reconstruction and on-scene investigation.
The driver who struck Medina, identified as David Jodoin, stopped at the scene and is cooperating with investigators, according to police. No charges have been filed at this time, but all aspects of the crash remain under investigation at this time.
Anyone with information that may assist the investigation is asked to contact Trooper Evan Puopolo at 603-451-9784.
State police are also reminding all New Hampshire drivers that Sherrill’s Law requires motorists approaching a stopped vehicle displaying warning signals to slow down and give plenty of space. Drivers are also required to move out of partially or wholly blocked lanes when it’s safe to do so.
New Hampshire
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CONCORD, NH — Here are the Top 10 most popular stories and posts from around New Hampshire Patch sites last week.
- Concord Police Investigating The Death Of A Young Child In The City’s South End Neighborhood: Update: Dakin Street was closed to traffic for several hours during an investigation of a child found dead at a duplex on Friday morning.
- Facebook Marketplace Cleaning Services Hire Or Sex Sale Gone Bad Leads To Stabbing In Manchester: Court docs: Frank Miller of Manchester and Kendra Gokey, a homeless woman, were arrested on first-degree assault and other charges Sunday.
- Man Shot During Dispute On South State Street In Downtown Concord: Video: Breaking: A man was shot in the leg Saturday during a dispute; cops have South State Street from Thompson to Concord closed to traffic.
- Fast Food Chain Closing Locations | Queen City Killing | Meth Distributor Pleads Guilty | More: Nearby News: Also: Best sandwich shop in NH; untimely death; crashes; knife attack indictments; firefighter injured in explosion released from hospital.
- After The Snow Sunday And Monday, More Is Coming To New Hampshire, Forecasters Say: After the storm that is expected to bring 8 to 12 inches of snow to the state, more snowstorm fronts are expected to arrive this week.
- 6 To 15 Inches Of Snow Heading To The Granite State Sunday Night; Wind Gusts Up To 45 mph: Forecasters: Heavy, blinding snow is expected in central and southern New Hampshire, as well as the Seacoast, from Sunday night to Monday morning.
- National Fast Food Chain To Close Hundreds Of Restaurants; New Hampshire Locations May Be Impacted: The chain that closed hundreds of locations in 2024 expects to shutter approximately 360 nationwide during the first half of 2026.
- Police Arrest Man On Felony Charges After South State Street Shooting In Downtown Concord: Follow-Up: David Anziani faces first-degree and second-degree assault, reckless conduct, and felonious firearm charges after a shooting on Saturday.
- Hollis Teen Faces Assault Charge, Accused Of An ‘Unprovoked’ Attack In Downtown Nashua In November: Connor Cook was arrested in late December after being accused of punching another man in the face on Main Street and then fleeing the scene.
- How Much Income Is Needed To Be Considered ‘Rich’ In New Hampshire?: A new analysis details the annual household income required to be considered among the top 10 percent of earners in the Granite State.
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