New Hampshire
Ramaswamy's withdrawal could help Trump win New Hampshire
An apocryphal political axiom holds that there are “three tickets out of Iowa” — meaning that only three presidential candidates can feasibly advance out of the Iowa caucuses. That hasn’t always been true in the past, but Republicans are taking it literally in 2024. After Monday night’s Iowa caucuses, the GOP presidential primary is effectively down to three finalists: former President Donald Trump, who finished first in convincing fashion with 51 percent of the vote; Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who finished second with 21 percent; and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, who finished third with 19 percent.
The unfortunate fourth-place finisher was businessman Vivek Ramaswamy, who dropped out of the race after taking just 8 percent of the vote. Now, if you’d have told Ramaswamy when he launched his campaign a year ago that he’d finish fourth in Iowa, he’d probably have seen that as a remarkable performance. The 38-year-old pharmaceutical entrepreneur entered the race without any political experience, and initially there was no reason to believe he’d make any more of a splash than any of the hundreds of anonymous presidential candidates who run every cycle.
But Ramaswamy parlayed his wealth, charisma and energy on the campaign trail (he held over 460 campaign events, by far the most in the field) into, if not the top, then the middle tier of the GOP field. By last summer, he rose as high as 12 percent in 538’s national polling average, good for third place behind Trump and DeSantis. But his bubble burst as voters got to know him better and his favorability ratings declined — probably with the help of some poorly received debate performances.
Ramaswamy departs the race with only 4 percent support nationally and 5 percent in soon-to-vote New Hampshire, so his withdrawal won’t make a huge impact on the race. However, it could help Trump’s campaign on the margins, given that most Ramaswamy supporters will probably now switch their allegiance to the former president. Ramaswamy endorsed Trump on his way out of the race Monday night, and the two were already closely ideologically aligned. According to an average of recent polls that asked Republican primary voters their second choice for president, a plurality — 42 percent — of Ramaswamy supporters nationwide said Trump.
It was a similar story in New Hampshire, where an average of 39 percent of Ramaswamy voters said Trump was their second choice. (A recent Emerson College/WHDH-TV poll was a notable outlier, showing Trump in third place among Ramaswamy supporters. However, all of these polling crosstabs have very small sample sizes, so wonky individual results aren’t too surprising.) And in New Hampshire, even a little bit of extra support could make a difference for Trump. According to our New Hampshire polling average, Trump is just 13 percentage points ahead of Haley in the Granite State, and all those polls were conducted before former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie dropped out of the race — a development that will probably help Haley.
538’s polling average of the 2024 Republican presidential primary race in New Hampshire.
538 Photo Illustration
If you simply give Trump 39 percent of Ramaswamy’s 5 percent support in New Hampshire, you could expect Trump to rise about 2 points in the state as a result of Ramaswamy’s withdrawal. And that’s before factoring in the impact of Ramaswamy’s endorsement of Trump, which could convince other ex-Ramaswamy supporters to opt for Trump too. In a world where Trump wins New Hampshire by only a couple points, Ramaswamy’s supporters may be the difference-maker.
Of course, Trump may not need the help. He’s coming off a huge Iowa win that could grant him momentum all on its own. Meanwhile, Haley’s third-place finish isn’t exactly rocket fuel for her campaign. All in all, Monday night’s developments were good for Trump’s chances of winning New Hampshire — which is big because it currently looks like his weakest state. If he wins there, there may be nothing left to stop him from winning every single primary of the 2024 cycle.
New Hampshire
New Hampshire: So, So Awesome, Though I Did Lose My Nerve for a Time – Part I – The Trek
This is a story not about scenic views, wildflowers, animals, people met, towns encountered, but some reality, at least mine, of things we often do not talk about in the hiking community. In retrospect, the first 1,800+ miles headed north on my thru hike of the Appalachian Trail (AT) were certainly taxing and replete with various challenges that I had to work through, learn from, and make adjustments. However, realistically not much on the AT at that point, and per my years of previous hiking experiences, prepared me mentally for what I would encounter in New Hampshire.
Welcome to idyllic New Hampshire.
More idyllic New Hampshire. Not so fast, Mr. Hiker guy, can’t do the same moves as before.
New Hampshire Hiking
Frankly, New Hampshire is a beast and I do mean that in a positive and respectful manner. The hiking in New Hampshire is so technically difficult from other areas within the U.S. and abroad that I have hiked. It seemed like I was constantly bouldering, scrambling, using handholds, fording high, swift creeks/rivers, navigating massive descents with no “guardrails,” or in May encountering hour-by-hour changing weather (e.g., snow, hail, sleet, rain, wind).
A granite face. Down we go.
Crazy Descent
When I hike, I do carry with me a healthy dose of fear, which I find to be positive. For me, fear operates as a navigating tool related to risks, focusing my mind, calming my emotional state, or strengthening my thought processes/decision-making.
On a few AT sections early on in New Hampshire, such as the northbound massive descent (Beaver Brook Cascades) down from Mount Moosilauke in a snow and sleet storm, my revolve and fear-cooping mechanisms seemed to become a negative version of “scared” with every step given the large amounts of this winter’s snow and ice, slippery rock faces, micro spikes and/or trial runners not adhering well to granite, and so on. In my mind, and probably quite true given the weather and trail conditions, danger of a fall, injury, or worse appeared to be at every turn and step. A 3+ mile very steep descent turned into a 3 to 4 hour mental stress test that I am pretty sure I “failed.”
Snow and ice up and down the mountain.
I was warned.
Rising Waters
The next day, I hiked about 17 miles from Kinsman Notch to Franconia Notch, and it had rained a lot in that section of the AT during the previous two days. During my ascent of Mount Kinsman, it continued to rain and rain. I must of forded 6 to 8 rivers, or maybe just the same river that amount of times, but as the day wore on, the water levels in these river(s) kept rising. I am almost 6’3” tall and by the end of the hiking day, I was fording river water mid- to upper-thigh and in super swift conditions. Again, like the previous Mousilauke experience, my positive fear started to become something more negative and mentally paralyzing thinking about the inherent risk involved in fording a deep, swift river late in the day and with no other option to get to the other side of a flooded out AT.
Various extremely sketchy river fords.
A Reset
After these experiences, and frankly losing my confidence, I took a few days off to level set, so I stayed at the wonderful Notch Hostel. To date, the Notch is my favorite hostel on the trail. The staff were so welcoming, warm, and always available. The hostel was super clean and friendly and had very fair expectations related to how hikers et al. should live there as well as treat the hostel environment. After at reset, I went back out and did a 27-mile hike in a few days of the famed Franconia Ridge over Mounts Lafayette and Lincoln, South Twin Mountain, and others. This was a very challenging hike, but one that I needed to do to gain my nerve back and reestablish mentally my healthy level of fear instead of hiking scared per possible ‘what if’ scenarios of serious injury and beyond.
Moving into Part II
So, in the end, it was fine to lose my nerve for a time and be scared in certain hiking situations. The key for me was in recognizing the latter state, trying to mentally review the circumstances, and learn from these experiences. Then, I needed to physically go back out in challenging conditions and hike. I feel really good about New Hampshire and what is to come on the AT. My part II, if you will, will be informed from my part I. I can’t wait for more of New Hampshire.
A new day rising.
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New Hampshire
New Hampshire mountainside transformed into largest outdoor sculpture park in New England
Sponsored by New England Chevy Dealers
With over 100 sculptures woven into the mountainside, the Andres Institute of Art is New England’s largest outdoor sculpture park.
Along wooded trails and scenic overlooks, visitors encounter a rotating collection of works that blend art and nature, turning a simple hike into an immersive gallery experience
New Hampshire
Firefighters Extinguish House Fire In Concord’s South End: Video
CONCORD, NH — Concord fire and rescue teams were sent to a house fire in the South End on Saturday afternoon.
Around 3:15 p.m., Concord Fire Alarm began receiving reports about smoke coming from a home on Brookside Drive. Engine 4 arrived first and confirmed smoke was coming from the building. About 10 minutes later, a firefighter stated the fire appeared to be coming from the basement.
News 603 posted videos on Facebook here:
And here:
A few minutes later, firefighters reported putting water on the fire.
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