“If it wasn’t already, it sure came into play last Thursday,” said Jon McHenry, a national GOP pollster who grew up in New Hampshire, referring to the first general-election debate between Biden and Trump.
Republican “reach states,” including New Hampshire, “became more competitive after that performance,” McHenry said. A year ago, the state “absolutely” looked less competitive for Republicans, he said, “whereas now, you go, ‘Hey, that’s on the table.’”
The fresh attention on New Hampshire comes as both campaigns seek to expand the map of key battleground states beyond the six that proved decisive in 2020. Immediately after last week’s debate, for example, Biden campaigned in North Carolina, while Trump traveled to Virginia, each candidate wooing a state he lost four years ago.
New Hampshire has long been a purple state; it currently has an-all Democratic congressional delegation, a Republican governor, and an almost even party split in its state House of Representatives. But not since George W. Bush in 2000 has the state backed a Republican for president — a streak that gives Democrats hope, even as Biden shows increasing signs of weakness.
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“We are confident Granite Staters will come together this November to reelect President Biden and reject Donald Trump, just as we did in 2016 and 2020,” said Marisa Nahem, a spokesperson for the Biden campaign in New Hampshire.
Biden carried New Hampshire by seven percentage points in 2020, but his campaign still considers it a battleground state this time around. In 2016, when Hillary Clinton carried New Hampshire, the margin was far closer; she bested Trump by less than one percentage point.
Donald Trump gestured to the crowd during a campaign rally in Manchester, N.H., in January.DOUG MILLS/NYT
This year’s election could more closely resemble 2016 than 2020, analysts said. And while New Hampshire is just one small state, its competitiveness forewarns of far larger consequences for Democrats.
“If New Hampshire is in play, then Donald Trump is going to win” the general election, predicted Fergus Cullen, a former New Hampshire GOP chair who opposes Trump. If Trump manages to even compete in New Hampshire, he reasoned, the former president will carry the bigger swing states with more electoral votes.
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“All that’s happened in the last six months is Trump’s path has expanded and Biden’s path to winning has become more and more narrow, much more threading the needle,” Cullen added. “He’s clearly been on defense in states that should be solidly in the Democratic column. The trends are all moving in one direction.”
As national Democrats openly discuss the possibility of replacing the president on the ticket this fall, some Biden backers in New Hampshire have been quick to tamp down on such speculation. And supporters dismiss the recent poll showing Trump ahead of Biden, noting that the survey has been proven wrong before and months of campaigning remain before Election Day.
Sure, New Hampshire looks competitive — but that’s nothing new this year, said Kathy Sullivan, the former state Democratic chair who led this year’s write-in effort for Biden in the primary. Biden snubbed New Hampshire by skipping its Jan. 23 primary this year, as national Democrats sought to shift the early contests to states with more diverse populations. But he decisively won the primary as a write-in candidate despite not formally campaigning in the state himself.
Biden has made two trips to New Hampshire since he skipped the primary, attempting to reset his relationship with the state. His campaign and local Democrats have 14 coordinated campaign offices.
Sullivan said Republicans are “getting ahead of themselves” in arguing that Biden’s debate performance will sink him in the state. Sullivan said based on conversations she’s had with canvassers promoting Biden door to door with New Hampshire voters, she is not convinced that the race has tightened since the debate.
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“I feel nervous about every election,” Sullivan said. “Fingers crossed, say a Hail Mary, or whatever prayer you might say, or meditate. It’s just going to be like every other election.”
Despite Republican bluster about recapturing the state in a presidential election, Trump has not campaigned in New Hampshire since he won its first-in-the-nation primary in January. A surrogate, his onetime GOP primary rival North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum, spoke at a fund-raising dinner in Keene in April.
Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Whatley told reporters in Arizona this week that as the Trump campaign worked to expand the map of battleground states, “we’ve now started to engage in Minnesota and in Virginia and in New Hampshire.”
But the RNC would not say what that effort entails. Trump campaign senior advisor and RNC chief of staff Chris LaCivita said in a statement thathe did not feel “obligated … to discuss the specifics of our strategy, timing and tactics with members of the news media.” But New Hampshire GOP Chairman Chris Ager told the Globe that last month, even before the June 27 debate, the Trump campaign made a “substantial” contribution to the state party to help Republicans on the ground boost the former president’s campaign.
“It’s an indicator when the campaign starts giving money directly to the state party,” Ager said. “It’s a good sign for us that yes, we are a battleground state.”
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Ager declined to say how much the Trump campaign had provided, but called it a “significant investment” — the first large chunk of money the party has received directly, and he is expecting more to come.
Before the debate, Ager said he knew New Hampshire would be close, but he wasn’t sure Trump could win it. Now, he said, he is “convinced.”
“I’m usually pretty cautious,” Ager said, “and now I’m like, ‘Oh boy.’”
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Emma Platoff can be reached at emma.platoff@globe.com. Follow her @emmaplatoff.
ERROL, N.H. (WHDH) – One person is dead and five others have been hospitalized after a head-on crash in Columbia, New Hampshire on Friday night, officials said.
Officers responding to a reported crash on Route 3 around 9 p.m. determined a Chevrolet Silverado heading southbound was struck head-on by a Chevrolet Camaro that was heading northbound and crossed the centerline, according to New Hampshire State Police.
Two adults and three children in the Silverado were taken to Upper Connecticut Valley Hospital in Colebrook. Two had non-life-threatening injuries and three had life-threatening injuries. All five were later transferred to Dartmouth Hitchcock Medical Center.
The driver of the Camaro, Courtney Diamond, 25, of Pelham, New Hampshire, was pronounced dead at the scene.
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Anyone with information that may assist in the investigation is asked to contact Trooper Jacob Ingerson at (603) 846-3333 or Jacob.J.Ingerson@dos.nh.gov.
(Copyright (c) 2026 Sunbeam Television. All Rights Reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.)
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Recently published data reflect the ongoing increases in the price of child care and decreases in access to care in New Hampshire, placing additional economic strain on Granite State families seeking affordable and high-quality care for their children. The price of child care for a family with an infant and a four-year old seeking center-based care averaged about $30,000 in 2025, up from $22,500 in 2017, while the number of licensed center and home-based child care providers has declined by 120 since 2017.
The national organization Child Care Aware of America (CCAoA) released its 2025 annual report on May 13, 2026. The report outlines the state-by-state early childhood education landscape, including both the price of care and provider supply within each state. In New Hampshire, these data were collected through the CCAoA’s New Hampshire Child Care Resource and Referral Agency and the New Hampshire Department of Health and Human Services (DHHS). Together, these data provide valuable, and updated, insights into the state’s early childhood care landscape and the challenges Granite State families face in accessing and affording child care services.
Rising price of early childhood education in NH
Based on analysis conducted by CCAoA, the average price of child care in New Hampshire in 2025 remains high for Granite State families. The average price of care for an infant and toddler in center-based care was $16,462 and $15,262, respectively, in 2025. For home-based care, the 2025 average price was $12,017 for an infant and $11,732 for a toddler. Furthermore, for a family with an infant and toddler making approximately the median income for a married couple with two children under age 5 in New Hampshire, the price of center-based care for their children would amount to approximately 25% of their family income. This financial burden is even greater for a single or unmarried mother, earning the median income of approximately $52,000 in New Hampshire, as paying the full average price of center-based child care for an infant and toddler would consume 61% of family income.
Additionally, these prices in care have increased substantially over time. From 2017 to 2025, the average enrollment price of center-based care and home-based care increased 32% and 30%, respectively. The largest increase in tuition prices during this period was 33% for toddlers and 4-year-olds in center-based care, as well as for 4-year-olds in home-based care. These increases in tuition prices outpaced inflation during the same period.
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For many Granite State families, the price for child care tuition will represent their greatest annual expense, particularly for families with multiple children and those living in rural regions of the state. According to Economic Policy Institute’s Family Budget Calculator, a family with two adults and two children living in Coos County, the New Hampshire county with the lowest cost of living, would spend on average 2.5 times more for center-based care for an infant and toddler than they would on housing. As affordability challenges and the overall cost of living continue to rise, some families may have to contend with difficult tradeoffs among essential household and family expenses, including child care services.
Although care for infants and toddlers are often the most expensive forms of care, child care-related expenses do not end once children enter kindergarten. Many families continue paying for before- and after-school programs, summer care, and school vacation coverage for years afterward. As a result, the costs outlined in this analysis likely represent only one portion of the broader child care expenses many Granite State families face.
Childcare supply challenges persist
While the price of child care tuition in New Hampshire remains high, the number of licensed providers has declined over time. The CCAoA’s report indicated that, in 2025, there were 613 licensed center-based programs and 104 home-based programs across New Hampshire. However, since 2017, the number of licensed center-based and home-based programs decreased by 10% and 32%, respectively. The greater closure rate in home-based programs across the State may have a disproportionate impact on families with low and moderate incomes seeking more affordable care options, as well as families in rural regions, communities of color, and families seeking non-traditional hour care, who rely more on this type of care to fill the gaps in available care from other providers. This decrease in number of providers, particulars those in home-based settings and in rural regions of the State, has likely placed further strain on family’s access to care, as they may have to travel longer distances for child care services.
Alongside the overall decline in child care providers during this period, the number of center-based programs participating in the New Hampshire Quality Rated Improvement System, or Granite Steps for Quality (GSQ), a statewide program designed to assess and improve the quality of care services in early childhood education settings, has decreased 16%. Of the remaining 99 providers that participated in the GSQ in 2025, only four reached the highest level of quality, or step 4 of the GSQ. These findings suggest that, as families navigate New Hampshire’s shrinking child care supply landscape in the State, they are encountering fewer options that offer recognized high-quality care services.
Families and providers continue to face growing financial pressures
The average tuition prices reported in the CCAoA’s analysis of the New Hampshire Early Childhood Education landscape do not necessarily reflect the cost of care all families pay for enrollment, or the cost providers pay for delivery of care services. Many families with low and moderate incomes qualify for the New Hampshire’s Child Care Scholarship Program (NHCCSP), a federal-State fiscal partnership that helps Granite State families afford child care through a tiered voucher system. Families who are eligible to participate in the NHCCSP may pay a weekly “cost share” of anywhere from $0 to 7% of their family income, with different tiers of eligibility depending on those family income levels. Families enrolled in the NHCCSP may also be charged a “co-payment” by the provider if tuition exceeds the weekly standard rates set by DHHS. In 2024, State policymakers expanded NHCCSP income eligibility for families, resulting in a significant increase in the number of families enrolled in the program, though this growth has slowed in recent months.
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Beyond the increase in eligibility for families in the 2024 expansion, policymakers also increased reimbursement rates for participating providers. While the provider reimbursement rates are set through the State’s Child Care Market Rate Survey, the prices only account for enrollment tuition prices. Consequently, these rates only capture what providers estimate families are willing and able to pay, but do not necessarily account for the provider costs for delivering high-quality care services and operating costs, including facility expenses, workforce and staff compensation, staff training, professional development training, as well as other costs. To supplement this gap in revenue, some providers turn to additional revenue streams such as grants, donations, and fundraising initiatives.
The rising price of child care tuition, coupled with the declining supply of providers in recent years, reflects the growing financial pressures families and child care providers face in New Hampshire. While programs such as the NHCCSP have an important and necessary role in reducing these barriers, additional State funding initiatives and policy strategies may be needed to more adequately address these challenges and provide meaningful financial relief for families seeking to access child care.
The New Hampshire Fiscal Policy Institute is sharing these articles with the partners in The Granite State News Collaborative. NHFPI is an independent nonprofit organization that explores, develops and promotes public policies that foster economic opportunity and prosperity for all New Hampshire residents. For more information visit nhfpi.org. These articles are being shared by partners in The Granite State News Collaborative. For more information visit collaborativenh.org.
SALEM, N.H. — A Lowell High School freshman was identified on Friday as the victim of a fatal shooting in Salem, where authorities say the 15‑year‑old was found dead outside a home during the pre-dawn hours.
New Hampshire Attorney General John Formella’s office said in a press release that police responding to a 911 call discovered the teen, identified as Wichai Saksene, just outside the residence on Orchard Terrace.
An autopsy later determined he died from a single gunshot wound to the chest, and his death has been ruled a homicide.
Authorities said the circumstances remain under active investigation but noted there is no known threat to the public, as all involved parties have been identified.
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In a message that began “sad news for your awareness,” Lowell Public Schools Superintendent Liam Skinner told School Committee members that Saksene was a Lowell High freshman and former student of Stoklosa Middle School and Lincoln Elementary School.
He added that central office staff are assisting Lowell High with communications to staff and families and that Student Support Services has activated a critical incident team to be at the high school on Monday.
The Salem Police Department stated in a social media post that they are working with the New Hampshire State Police Major Crimes Unit and Formella’s office to investigate the shooting.
Follow Aaron Curtis on X @aselahcurtis, or on Bluesky @aaronscurtis.bsky.social.
