Connect with us

New Hampshire

Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump in two NH polls: Experts weigh in on what it means

Published

on

Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump in two NH polls: Experts weigh in on what it means


MANCHESTER — Vice President Kamala Harris has taken the lead over former President Donald Trump in New Hampshire, two new polls revealed.

Both polls show Harris leading Trump by six points in the Granite State: 50% to 44% in a poll conducted by the Saint Anselm College Survey Center at the New Hampshire Institute of Politics, and 49% to 43% in a poll conducted by University of New Hampshire Survey Center. Both polls were released Thursday.

It’s a marked shift from a NHIOP poll released a few days after the first presidential debate in June, which saw Trump taking the lead over President Joe Biden, 44% to 42%. It was a telling result in a state that voted for Biden by a large margin in 2020.

But after Biden exited the 2024 presidential race Sunday, Harris is now the expected Democratic nominee.

Advertisement

Neil Levesque, director of the New Hampshire Institute of Politics, said Harris would win New Hampshire’s four electoral votes if the election was held today. 

“She’s done a very good job in the last, let’s say, four days, in unifying the Democratic Party,” Levesque said. “And as a result, what you had were a lot of voters who were not enthusiastic about Biden, and they could be very liberal identified, or they could just be people that just weren’t enthusiastic, they have now turned around and solidified behind Harris.” 

More: Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, in NH, touts Kamala Harris and ‘new sense of energy’

In the NHIOP poll, Harris saw more support than Biden among Democratic voters, as well as more liberal voters. Her favorability rating was 49%, much higher than Biden’s 39% from the previous poll. While her favorability rating in the UNH poll was lower at 39%, she had higher ratings than both Biden and Trump.

Advertisement

Another sign of enthusiasm for Harris, Levesque said, is there were “a lot more people willing to take the poll” than the one from after the debate.

The UNH poll revealed that 47% of New Hampshire residents felt relieved after hearing about Biden’s withdrawal from the presidential race, and 33% felt hopeful. Among Democrats, 78% prefer Harris as the Democratic presidential nominee.

Support for Trump remained the same from the last NHIOP poll, which was followed by an assassination attempt on Trump, the Republican convention, and his vice-presidential running mate choice of Sen. JD Vance.

Flipping the (election) script: Now it’s Trump facing questions about age, mental acuity

“He’s such a known commodity,” Levesque said of Trump. “People either are definitely going to vote for him or they’re definitely not.”

Advertisement

Republicans may call this polling shift toward Harris a “honeymoon period,” Levesque said. Indeed, in an interview with WMUR the day following Biden’s exit from the race, New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu said he expected Democrats to get a “four- or five-point bump just because they had the courage to change it out.”

Levesque acknowledged a lot can change in the coming months as the race settles. Harris still needs a vice president and the Democratic National Convention has yet to take place. 

But he said the results are still an important “snapshot” of the race as it stands.

“There’s a lot of other states and a lot of different people, but New Hampshire really is a very good bellwether for knowing the mood of the country,” Levesque said. “And so the fact that she’s bounced, she’s clearly taken the lead here in New Hampshire might be indicative to what happens in some of these other key battleground states.”



Source link

Advertisement
Continue Reading
Advertisement
Click to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

New Hampshire

New Hampshire Democrats see wave of enthusiasm after change at top of ticket

Published

on

New Hampshire Democrats see wave of enthusiasm after change at top of ticket


While Democrats are riding an internal wave of enthusiasm in the wake of switching out presumptive nominees, the chairmen of both major parties in New Hampshire said they expect the presidential race to revert to a close, hard-fought contest.



Source link

Continue Reading

New Hampshire

Can NH Dems turn big buzz into victory for Harris?

Published

on

Can NH Dems turn big buzz into victory for Harris?


CONCORD — Out of Joe Biden’s shadow, Vice President Kamala Harris’s historic campaign to become the nation’s first woman president began well here this past week, though she didn’t lack for detractors.

“I think Granite Staters are really excited to have Kamala Harris at the top of the ticket,” said Craig Brown, who was state director of her 2020 presidential run.

A wide open race






Then-candidates Joe Biden and Kamala Harris spar during a 2020 Democratic presidential debate in Detroit in August 2019. Some observers say Harris’s performance then makes them look forward to a debate with Donald Trump.

Advertisement




Appeal to youth







State Democratic press conference

New Hampshire Democratic Party Chair Ray Buckley conducts a press briefing with fellow democrats including Sen. Becky Whitley (D-Hopkinton) at a party office in downtown Nashua on Wednesday.

Advertisement










Mangipudi and Harris

State Rep. Latha Mangipudi, D-Nashua, talks with then-U.S. Sen. Kamala Harris during Harris’s presidential campaign stop in Nashua in May 2019.

Advertisement




A surge of energy



Source link

Continue Reading

New Hampshire

Kamala Harris Takes State From Donald Trump in New Poll

Published

on

Kamala Harris Takes State From Donald Trump in New Poll


Kamala Harris has a significant lead over Donald Trump in New Hampshire, according to new polling data.

In the first public survey of New Hampshire voters since Joe Biden dropped out of the presidential race, Harris has a lead of 6 points over the former president.

The poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire between July 23 and 25, shows Harris with a 49 to 43 percent lead over Trump. The poll surveyed 3,016 people and had a margin of error of 1.8 percent.

In a Saint Anselm College Survey Center (SASC) poll of 2,083 New Hampshire registered voters conducted between July 24 and 25, Harris had a 50-44 percent margin over Trump. The poll had a 2.1 percent margin of error.

Advertisement

Harris was not previously leading in the state. In a poll conducted by the New Hampshire Journal and Praecones Analytica after the Republican convention but before Joe Biden announced his withdrawal from the 2024 campaign, when Harris was matched up against Trump in a head-to-head, her Republican rival was leading her by one point, on 40 percent to her 39 percent.

In the same poll, Trump and Biden were essentially tied, with Trump on 39.7 and Biden on 39.4 percent.

Vice President Kamala Harris speaks in Houston, Texas, on July 25, 2024. She is leading Donald Trump by 6 points in New Hampshire.

Montinique Monroe/Getty Images

New Hampshire has voted Democratic in all but one election since 1992, but it is considered a battleground state in most election cycles because control of its state legislature and congressional seats have switched back and forth between Republicans and Democrats.

In 2020, Biden won the state with 52 percent of the vote to Trump’s 45 percent, while in 2016, Hillary Clinton was able to carry the state by around 2,700 votes.

Neil Levesque, Executive Director of the New Hampshire Institute of Politics, noted: “With President Biden’s endorsement and the Democratic campaign’s shift to Harris, she has emerged with a consolidated party support, which enhances her standing against Trump among New Hampshire voters.”

Advertisement

Levesque added: “Harris has achieved a level of partisan enthusiasm that Biden did not, especially among the liberal base: 94 percent of Democratic voters now support Harris, a noticeable increase from Biden’s 82 percent in June. As Harris takes the lead in the campaign, shifts in voter perceptions are expected to continue.”

Multiple polls have put Harris in the lead over Trump since she became the front runner for the Democratic nomination.

In a poll conducted by Morning Consult between July 22 and 24, Harris was leading Trump by one point, with 46 percent supporting Harris to Trump’s 45 percent.

And a Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted on Monday and Tuesday showed Harris with a 2-point lead over Trump, with 44 percent of those polled supporting her in a head-to-head contest with the Republican, while 42 percent backed the former president. The poll had a margin of error of 3 percentage points.

However, not all the polls are favorable to Harris. In the latest poll conducted by the New York Times and Siena College, Trump was leading Harris by 2 points among registered voters and 1 point among likely voters.

Advertisement

Another poll conducted by Morning Consult after Biden ended his reelection campaign showed Trump had a 2-point lead over Harris, with 47 percent supporting the former president compared to 45 percent backing Harris.

The poll also showed that Trump’s margin over the Democrats had decreased. The former president was now only 2 points ahead of Harris, after a previous survey by the same pollsters put Trump four points ahead of Biden—46 percent to the president’s 42 percent.

Uncommon Knowledge

Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.

Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.

Advertisement



Source link

Continue Reading

Trending