Scientists would soon find the culprit: longfin squid followed warmer waters into the Gulf of Maine migrating from farther south, which led to the collapse of the fishery. A decade later, as heating in the Gulf of Maine continues to outpace most bodies of water in the world, the shrimp fishery still hasn’t recovered.

The shrimp were an early sign of how changes in the climate can decimate a food source, affecting a harvest and the restaurants that depend on it.

Increasingly, those signs are hard to ignore. Farmers and fishermen around the state said erratic weather patterns are leading to regular crop failures, loss of infrastructure as roads and farm structures are battered by rain and wind, and more — issues that add costs and stress onto a livelihood that was already costly and stressful.

Restaurant owners — who also face dips in tourism during extended rainy periods, and expensive repairs when extreme heat pushes air conditioners past their limit — said local food is a core tenet of many of Maine’s vaunted restaurants. Losing those sources means losing a piece of what makes their food so special. Shipping food in from other places means sacrificing taste and quality, while also adding new sources of carbon emissions from long-haul deliveries.

“We get a lot of people in the restaurant who believe in the same stuff that we do,” said Jake Stevens, head chef and owner of Leeward in Portland. “They want to eat local food. They want to get organic food. But it does get to a tipping point . . . some people just can’t abide paying, you know, $75 for a pork chop. It’s just untenable.”

Independent restaurants such as Leeward are the fifth-largest employer in the United States, according to a recent report by the James Beard Foundation, and they are among the most vulnerable. More than a quarter fail in their first year of operation, and 59 percent fail in the first three years. While restaurant revenues have largely rebounded from the hit they took during COVID-19, it isn’t expected to last, as a warming climate impacts crop yields and drives higher inflation.

The worst of those impacts are expected in years to come, but already, some are showing up.

At Bumbleroot Organic Farm, an 8-acre plot outside Portland that sells vegetables and flowers to roughly 30 local restaurants, it’s been one challenge after another.

The summer of 2022, it was sweltering temperatures and little rain. Crew had to wake up throughout the night to irrigate fields and save the crops. The following year, the reverse — the rain didn’t quit. One field got so saturated, it never really dried out, causing entire plantings to fail.

“We have to literally be ready for every scenario, because it’s not just wet, it’s heat, it’s extended heat, it’s late frost, it’s early frost,” said Ben Whalen, co-owner of the farm. “The extreme nature of what we’re dealing with, even right now, is crazy.”

Leeward is one of the restaurants that get regular deliveries from Bumbleroot.

“The carrot that was $2 a pound is now $4 a pound because half the crop got washed away,” said Stevens. “That either gets passed on to consumers or we have to make tough decisions and not serve that stuff.”

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When it comes to vulnerability and carrots, farmer Seth Kroeck knows the story well. This spring, a major storm dropped 3 inches of rain not long after fields of carrot seeds were planted at Crystal Spring Farm in Brunswick. Thousands of tiny seeds floated up from the quarter-inch of soil they were buried under. In the end, they were only able to harvest about 30 percent of the expected 18,000 pounds of carrots.

It’s not just the carrots. “In two of the last four springs, we’ve had a late enough frost that we’ve lost our entire blueberry crop,” Kroeck said. “Old timers” in Maine’s farming community have told him that no one can recall such frequent and severe losses.

Crop insurance and some business planning has allowed Maine’s farmers to squeak through, “but it’s been a huge challenge,” he said. Increased costs for labor, fuel, and packaging have further hurt their bottom lines.

Similar challenges are playing out in the ocean. In 2023, Maine lobstermen reported the smallest catch since 2009, according to the Maine Department of Marine Resources. While this year’s official numbers won’t be reported for months, locally, lobstermen report a more typical catch. It’s not yet clear what caused that, though winter temperatures in the Gulf were not as warm as they have been in recent years and lower bait and fuel prices may have led to more consistent fishing. Regardless, researchers expect that as the Gulf of Maine continues to warm, lobster will move north.

“It’s the slow change that really is going to be the problem in the long run, right?” said Matt Moretti, co-owner of Bangs Island Mussels in Portland. “It’s the constantly warming, slow crawl up in temperature” and the increased acidification, as the ocean absorbs carbon dioxide, which over time can weaken the shells of some ocean species.

Then there are unexpected acute events, triggered by climate change. A few years ago, when Moretti’s team went out to harvest wild mussel spawn, which they use to grow mussels for restaurants, instead of finding ropes covered in spawn, they were met with an ugly surprise: 100,000 pounds of sea squirts, an invasive species that’s becoming more common as the gulf warms.

“We could not capture the muscle seed at the time when we’re supposed to catch it,” Moretti said.

Both at sea and on the land, harvesters aren’t sitting back and waiting for the next crisis. Moretti has begun buying mussel spawn that’s more resilient to warming waters from the Downeast Institute, a marine research laboratory in Beals, Maine. Bangs Island is doing regular ocean monitoring to better understand how changes in the Gulf of Maine may be affecting seafood. They have also diversified, growing oysters and kelp in addition to mussels.

Diversification is key on land, too. At Bumbleroot, low vegetable sales last year could have been devastating had their cut flower sales not buoyed the business.

Meg Chase, whose family owns Chase’s Daily — a restaurant in Belfast — and grows food and flowers on 20 acres of their farm in nearby Freedom, is transitioning to no-till farming, a method that increases the drainage capabilities of fields. She’s also working with the Natural Resources Conservation Service, an arm of the US Department of Agriculture, to plan for resiliency and apply for grants.

One thing that’s top of mind: funds for a new farm road. “At this point, we can’t even access our fields at some points, because it’s too wet,” Chase said.

All this stress takes a toll.

Last year, as the fall came to a close, Whalen, of Bumbleroot Organic Farm, gathered his crew together to take their temperature: How was everyone feeling?

Over and over, he heard the same thing. “We put so much energy and effort into growing high-quality food . . . you do all this work, and then yet you get a zero,” he said. “Their souls were just crushed.”

This year, as the farm diversifies its crops and looks for other ways to become more resilient, they’re also seeking out ways to support each other, including a mandatory week of paid vacation during the summer for all year-round workers.

Soon, they’ll repeat last year’s mental health poll. “I think everyone’s gonna be at like, 80 percent,” said Whalen. “That’s a win. That’s a huge win.”

Sabrina Shankman can be reached at sabrina.shankman@globe.com. Follow her @shankman.