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Harris-Trump showdown: Top political handicapper shifts ratings in key states

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Harris-Trump showdown: Top political handicapper shifts ratings in key states

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A top non-partisan political handicapper is shifting three key states toward Vice President Kamala Harris in her 2024 election showdown with former President Trump.

The Cook Political Report is moving North Carolina from leans Republican to toss up. The Tar Heel State is one of seven battlegrounds across the country that will likely determine the outcome of the presidential election.

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Former President Obama was the last Democrat to carry the state in the race for the White House, in the 2008 election. 

Four years ago, Trump narrowly edged President Biden in the state. However, following Biden’s disastrous debate performance against Trump in late June, the former president saw his lead in North Carolina grow to the mid single digits.

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Vice President Kamala Harris speaks at the Hendrick Center for Automotive Excellence on the Scott Northern Wake Campus of Wake Tech Community College in Raleigh, North Carolina, on Aug. 16. (Allison Joyce/AFP via Getty Images)

After Biden ended his 2024 re-election bid on July 21 and Harris replaced her boss at the top of the Democrats’ national ticket, the race in North Carolina tightened to a margin-of-error contest.

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“Trump hasn’t lost political ground since July; instead it’s that Harris has improved on Biden’s vote share by seven points,” Cook Political Report publisher and editor-in-chief Amy Walter wrote in explaining her ratings shift.

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“In other words, the race is tightening, not because Harris is cutting into Trump’s vote, but because Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents are coming home,” Walter added.

Trump, determined not to let North Carolina slip from his column, has campaigned in the state three times since Biden dropped out of the race five and a half weeks ago. 

Former President Trump speaks behind bulletproof glass during a campaign rally at the North Carolina Aviation Museum & Hall of Fame in Asheboro, North Carolina, on Aug. 21. (Peter Zay/AFP via Getty Images)

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Additionally, the Trump campaign outspent the Harris campaign by $8.3 million to run ads in North Carolina since the president dropped out of the 2024 race, according to the national ad tracking firm AdImpact. However, the Harris campaign currently has $30 million in ad reservations in the state, compared to just $7.3 million for the Trump campaign.

GOP GOVERNOR SAYS TRUMP NEEDS TO CARRY HIS STATE TO WIN WHITE HOUSE

The Cook Political Report now joins another leading non-partisan political handicapper, Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, in classifying North Carolina as a toss-up.

Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Trump. (AP Photos)

Walter also made a shift in two competitive presidential election states that the Democrats have reliably won for decades, moving Minnesota and New Hampshire from lean Democrat to likely Democrat.

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In the weeks after the Biden-Trump debate, polls indicated Trump making gains in Minnesota, where the GOP has not carried the state in a presidential election in over a half century, and New Hampshire, which the Democrats have carried in five straight White House contests.

However, Walter said that “Harris has been able to reconstitute and energize the Democratic coalition… taking states like Minnesota and New Hampshire out of reach for the Trump campaign.”

Get the latest updates from the 2024 campaign trail, exclusive interviews and more at our Fox News Digital election hub.

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New York

In First Campaign Ad, Schlossberg Leans on a Well-Known Name: Pelosi

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In First Campaign Ad, Schlossberg Leans on a Well-Known Name: Pelosi

Jack Schlossberg, the grandson of John F. Kennedy, has built his campaign for a New York City House seat around turning the page on the Democrats’ old guard.

Yet when he debuts his first paid advertisement on Wednesday, the 33-year-old candidate has chosen his party’s oldest living leader, Representative Nancy Pelosi of California, to do the talking.

The choice reflects the unique challenge Mr. Schlossberg faces ahead of a marquee June primary against more seasoned rivals. He may have star power and youth, but he is still trying to persuade aging voters who form the Democratic base that he is serious and experienced enough to represent a storied Manhattan district — home to corporate chieftains, media empires and cultural meccas.

The 30-second ad, which was shared first with The New York Times, uses Ms. Pelosi, a former House speaker, to make his case. In it, the congresswoman, 86, speaks directly to the camera to say that Mr. Schlossberg has “a deep sense of duty” and the kind of energy that could help propel Democrats back to power nationally.

“This moment calls for leaders who understand the stakes and how to deliver for the people they serve,” she says, sometimes over clips of him campaigning. “Jack Schlossberg is that kind of leader.”

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Mr. Schlossberg is among the first candidates in New York’s 12th District to start spending on paid media. But a handful of super PACs funded by competing A.I. companies and former Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg have already burned through millions of dollars trying to sway voters toward or away from his rivals.

Mr. Schlossberg’s outlay will be relatively modest in comparison. The campaign said it would initially spend $70,000 on digital platforms, and eventually add more digital spending and $250,000 in broadcast TV time — a relatively small sum in the nation’s most expensive media market.

Mr. Schlossberg, who has reported inherited assets between $10 million and $32 million, said he would not be spending any of his own money in the race. He does not have a super PAC behind him.

While there has been no real public polling to date, private polls released by several of Mr. Schlossberg’s rivals have all narrowly put him in the lead.

With two months left until Primary Day, two state assemblymen — Alex Bores and Micah Lasher — are not far behind; followed by George Conway, a former Republican turned high-profile antagonist of President Trump, and Nina Schwalbe, a public health expert. Because the seat is safely Democratic, the primary winner will almost certainly win the general election to replace Representative Jerrold Nadler, who is retiring.

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Mr. Schlossberg, earlier known for a head-turning social media presence, has largely tried to portray his opponents as old-fashioned, risk-averse establishment figures who have not been able to check Mr. Trump. They, in turn, have raised doubts about the thinness of his résumé, which includes no long-term traditional work experience, elected or otherwise.

In an interview, Mr. Schlossberg said it was an obvious choice to turn to Ms. Pelosi, who is perhaps her party’s most respected elder stateswoman.

“Speaker Pelosi is the backbone of our party,” he said. “She most importantly understands better than anyone how the House of Representatives works and what the Democratic Party needs right now.”

Yet embracing Ms. Pelosi may also have its costs, complicating Mr. Schlossberg’s attempts to position himself as an outsider and a fresh face by reminding voters of his family’s deep ties to the Democratic establishment.

Mr. Schlossberg said he believes he first met Ms. Pelosi when he was in high school. Alongside his family, he presented her with the John F. Kennedy Profile in Courage Award in 2019.

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The candidate said Ms. Pelosi asked to meet with him in her Washington office before she endorsed his campaign in February.

“I printed out all my plans I have for the district and the country,” he said. “She read them over and quizzed me.”

An earlier version of the ad shared with The Times included footage of Mr. Schlossberg and Ms. Pelosi spending time with his mother, the former ambassador Caroline Kennedy, and his niece, the daughter of his sister Tatiana Schlossberg. (Ms. Schlossberg, who was an environmental journalist, died in December after a fight with blood cancer that she chronicled in a widely read essay.) That footage was cut from the final ad before it was distributed.

In the interview, Mr. Schlossberg said he exempted Ms. Pelosi from his critique of this party’s aging officials — and argued voters would, too.

“I put her in a category of her own,” he said. “She has magic that doesn’t age. It wins.”

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Boston, MA

Fancy Hats Can Be Cool

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Fancy Hats Can Be Cool


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Ellie Ayati-Jian and Jaine Davies, two Greater Boston milliners, are raising the brim—and the bar.


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Pretty in pink, blue, and yellow and festooned with ribbon, feathers, and a bold flower, this fascinator was created by Ellie Jian Millinery. / Photo by Steph Larsen / Styling by Abby Brenc for Anchor Artists

At spring events like the Kentucky Derby and Boston’s own “hat luncheon,” the Emerald Necklace Conservancy’s annual Party in the Park, hats have long shaped the conversation—an expected flourish of brim and bloom marking the start of the season. In recent years, however, the role of the hat has evolved, from celebratory flourish to considered craft.

Leading that charge locally is Ellie Jian Millinery, the Newton studio founded by Ellie Ayati-Jian. Trained in architecture and interior design, Ayati-Jian brings a structural sensibility to her work, approaching millinery less as ornament and more as wearable design. Her hats—ranging from floral fascinators to structured couture pieces—are engineered with intention, balancing form, proportion, and comfort. “What drew me in was the energy and sense of community around derby events,” Ayati-Jian says. “They bring together fashion, tradition, and celebration in a very social way.” That social element remains central to her work: She’s a familiar presence at Boston events, often modeling her own designs to show how even bold headpieces can feel approachable.

Round blue hatbox with a matching lid beside it, adorned with a decorative pink mesh bow and a cluster of dark blue fabric flowers on top, set against a light purple background.

This Ellie Jian Millinery pink fascinator is anchored by deep blue handmade flower. / Photo by Steph Larsen / Styling by Abby Brenc for Anchor Artists

Ayati-Jian’s creative process begins not with sketching, but with research—architecture, art, fashion history, or a client’s personal story—until a concept emerges. She often spends days gathering visual references before touching a single material, allowing a narrative to emerge before form takes shape. From there, she shapes and refines her hats by hand.

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Ayati-Jian says toppers incorporating clean shapes, softer brims, and sculptural forms are now trending—which, given the city’s fashion predilections, is a big advantage. “Boston style is generally more conservative, and I think that works beautifully with this direction,” she says. “Bostonians appreciate quality, craftsmanship, and timeless design.”

Green fascinator hat featuring large, sculpted fabric loops and a prominent peacock feather with additional thin black feathers extending outward. The hat is displayed on a beige mannequin head against a white background.

The “Monaco” by IndigoHats is made of silk with a peacock feather. / Photo courtesy of Jaine Davies/IndigoHats

She’s not the only one taking advantage of the recent hat craze. Raised in England near a major horse race, Jaine Davies, whose millinery studio, IndigoHats, is based on the South Shore, grew up immersed in a culture where hats signaled occasion. Her ideas often begin in a small notebook she carries everywhere, filled with details spotted at museum exhibitions and in historical garments. “Couture runway shows are really important to study,” says Davies, who observes the season’s designer dresses closely, translating their colors, embroidery, and silhouettes into hats ready for her studio. She handblocks each piece on traditional wooden forms and sews every hat by hand, pairing time-honored techniques with an adventurous use of materials. Alongside classic straws, Davies works with Dupioni silks, richly patterned textiles, beadwork, and meticulously crafted feather flowers designed to be as light as they are dramatic.

For Davies, drama and discipline go hand in hand. “I want to wow from a distance and impress close up with how well made they are,” she says. Indeed, her hats accomplish exactly that.

Small magenta fascinator hat featuring a large fabric rose, delicate netting veil, and decorative curled feathers.

The shop’s “Aster” is a pillbox style with quills and sophisticated veiling. / Photo courtesy of Jaine Davies/IndigoHats

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This article was first published in the print edition of the April 2026 issue, with the headline,“Head First.”



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Pittsburg, PA

Springsteen, Lyle Lovett, Don Toliver and more Pittsburgh concerts in May

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Springsteen, Lyle Lovett, Don Toliver and more Pittsburgh concerts in May






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