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AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Connecticut's state primaries

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AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Connecticut's state primaries


WASHINGTON (AP) — Connecticut Republicans will pick nominees in state primaries on Tuesday to challenge two longtime Democratic lawmakers, U.S. Sen. Chris Murphy and U.S. Rep. Jim Himes.

The leading GOP hopefuls for each seat won the party’s endorsement at state and district conventions but not by large enough margins to win the nominations outright.

In the U.S. Senate primary, Gerry Smith and Matt Corey will compete for the Republican nomination. Smith serves as first selectman for the town of Beacon Falls and is also an insurance agent and former small business owner. Corey is a bar owner and Navy veteran. He was the Republican nominee against Murphy in 2018 and also challenged Democratic U.S. Rep. John Larson in the 1st Congressional District in 2012, 2014 and 2016. In 2020, he was the Republican nominee for a state Senate seat. Smith received a majority of votes from delegates to the state convention in May, but Corey surpassed the 15% vote threshold required to force a primary. Democrats unanimously nominated Murphy at their state convention, avoiding the need for a primary.

In the 4th Congressional District, Republicans Bob MacGuffie and Michael Goldstein each hope to unseat eight-term Democratic U.S. Rep. Jim Himes. MacGuffie is a former insurance executive and tea party activist from the years of Barack Obama’s presidency. He received the party’s endorsement at the district convention in May by a narrow margin against Goldstein, an attorney and physician who ran unsuccessfully for the 4th District nomination in 2020 and 2022.

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Neither seat is a top target for national Republicans hoping to win control of the Senate or maintain control of the House in November. Murphy won reelection in 2018 with 60% of the vote, while President Joe Biden carried the state in 2020 with 59%. Himes received 59% of the vote in his 2022 reelection bid, while district voters preferred Biden by almost two-to-one over Republican Donald Trump in 2020.

Connecticut voters will also decide a handful of state legislative races. Democrats have contested primaries in four state Senate districts and 11 state House districts, while Republicans will face off in one district in each chamber. All state legislative seats are up for election in 2024, although most are not holding primaries.

Elections in Connecticut are run at the town level instead of the county level. All 169 towns will hold Republican primaries because of the contested U.S. Senate race. With Murphy already renominated for his statewide seat, much of the state won’t have Democratic primaries.

Here’s a look at what to expect on Tuesday:

Primary day

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The Connecticut state primaries will be held Tuesday. Polls close at 8 p.m. ET.

What’s on the ballot

The Associated Press will provide vote results and declare winners in contested primaries for U.S. Senate, U.S. House, state Senate and state House.

Who gets to vote

Only voters registered with a political party may participate in that party’s primary. Democrats may not vote in the Republican primary or vice versa. Independent or unaffiliated voters may not participate in either primary.

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Decision notes

The largest towns in Connecticut are Bridgeport, Stamford, New Haven, Hartford and Waterbury, each with populations exceeding 100,000. Bridgeport and Stamford are in the 4th Congressional District in southwestern Connecticut.

Corey’s and Goldstein’s previous campaigns offer some points of comparison for Tuesday’s contests. In the 2018 U.S. Senate Republican primary, Corey won the nomination with 77% of the vote, carrying all 169 towns along the way. He had 50-point margins or larger in 137 of the state’s 169 towns. In Goldstein’s previous run in the 4th District in 2022, he lost the districtwide vote with 40% of the vote. He carried only Easton, Greenwich and Oxford by narrow margins and lost the district’s 14 other towns, most notably Bridgeport and Stamford.

The AP does not make projections and will declare a winner only when it’s determined there is no scenario that would allow the trailing candidates to close the gap. If a race has not been called, the AP will continue to cover any newsworthy developments, such as candidate concessions or declarations of victory. In doing so, the AP will make clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explain why.

Recounts in Connecticut are automatic if the vote if the vote margin less than 0.5% of the total votes cast, but not exceeding 2,000 votes. Recounts are also automatic in races where the margin is less than 20 votes. The AP may declare a winner in a race that is eligible for a recount if it can determine the lead is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the outcome.

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What do turnout and advance vote look like?

As of October 2023, there were nearly 2.5 million registered voters in Connecticut. Of those, 36% were Democrats, 20% were Republicans and 42% were independent or unaffiliated.

In the 2022 midterms, turnout was 4% of registered voters in the Republican primary. There was no statewide Democratic contest in that election. Turnout in the 2018 Democratic primary was about 9% of registered voters.

In 2023, Connecticut adopted an early voting law that was first implemented in April’s presidential primaries. In those contests, 26% of Democratic primary voters and 17% of Republican primary voters cast their ballots before election day. By comparison, about 5% of Republican primary voters in the 2022 midterms and 6% of Democratic primary voters in 2018 cast their ballots before election day.

As of Wednesday, more than 6,100 ballots had been cast before primary day, about 54% in the Democratic primary and about 46% in the Republican primary.

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How long does vote-counting usually take?

In the 2022 midterm primaries, the AP first reported results at 8:08 p.m. ET, or eight minutes after polls closed. The election night tabulation ended at 12:52 a.m. ET with more than 99% of total votes counted.

Are we there yet?

As of Tuesday, there will be 84 days until the November general election.

___

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Follow the AP’s coverage of the 2024 election at https://apnews.com/hub/election-2024.



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Connecticut

Free dental clinic in Waterbury to provide cleanings, root canals and more

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Free dental clinic in Waterbury to provide cleanings, root canals and more


The Connecticut Mission of Mercy will host its 18th free dental clinic in collaboration with the Connecticut Foundation for Dental Outreach this weekend.

The clinic will be located inside the gym at Wilby High School in Waterbury and will open at 7 a.m. on Saturday and Sunday, Nov. 9 and 10.

All dental services will be first come first serve and priority will be given to veterans, people living with disabilities, children and seniors.

Services being offered included exams, x-rays, cleanings, extractions, fillings, a limited number of front teeth root canals and a limited number of interim partial dentures.

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Over 1,000 volunteers are expected to provide services to 1,700 people. The clinic is free and patients are not required to provide documentation.

The clinic is asking that patients provide a list of any current medications.



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Connecticut

Lots of sunshine, highs in 60s and 70s Thursday

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Lots of sunshine, highs in 60s and 70s Thursday


We will have lots of sunshine mixed with fair-weather clouds, dry breezes and enhanced fire danger on Thursday. 

The high temperatures will be in the mid-60s to low-70s.

The northwest breeze will be between 10 and 20 miles per hour. 

Tonight will be fair and chilly with lows in the 30s and 40s.  

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Friday will be fair and cooler, and then it will be much cooler on Saturday. 

The next chance of showers is later Sunday night and Monday.

Get a more in-depth look at the forecast on our weather blog.



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Opinion: With just days left, we need action on offshore wind

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Opinion: With just days left, we need action on offshore wind


Over a year ago, Connecticut announced its signing of a first-of-its-kind agreement with Rhode Island and Massachusetts that would allow the three states to work together to bring new offshore wind projects to our region. But when Massachusetts and Rhode Island released their offshore wind selections in September, Connecticut was conspicuously absent. Unlike its neighbors, Connecticut has not yet joined in the multi-state offshore wind proposals, and soon it may be too late.

At first glance, this hesitation may seem understandable, even safe. After all, Connecticut customers are feeling the stress of rising energy expenses. But a closer look reveals that failing to move forward on offshore wind today would likely prolong the pain of high energy prices and could reduce

With just days left before the November 8 deadline to join this procurement, Connecticut policy leaders of all parties have expressed concern about energy costs, which have occurred for a number of reasons. This year we experienced one of the hottest summers on record, causing residents to crank up air conditioners and electric bills to increase. Eversource electric customers are also currently on the hook to collectively pay back $800 million from skipped collections during the COVID-pandemic via higher rates over a 10-month period. This fall, Yankee Gas is proposing a rate hike, as is the electric utility United Illuminating (UI). And an increasing reliance on imported natural gas puts customers in a precarious position as the gas supply

While there is no quick fix or single solution that can remedy the energy cost crunch, a “business-as-usual” approach is not going to bring long-term relief to ratepayers. If Connecticut continues down the current path, its growing overreliance on imported natural gas to supply both heating and electricity will further strain energy infrastructure and expose communities to major price spikes. Instead, we should be employing a diversity of resources. Offshore wind is one key way to take back control of our energy supply and maintain system reliability.

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Offshore wind represents a significant reservoir of untapped potential for clean power right here along the East Coast. Offshore wind farms are incredibility efficient and effective at producing electricity due to their high energy capacity.  The projects proposed in the recent three-state process will offer a nearby dependable power source that will keep money in the local economy, meaning hundreds of good jobs and hundreds of millions of dollars would be invested in Connecticut.

To be clear, building offshore wind does require significant upfront capital, but that’s true for any large-scale energy infrastructure. And costs won’t flow to ratepayers until the projects are completed and electricity is generated – several years in the future. Moreover, once constructed, offshore projects have the advantage of utilizing an inexhaustible supply of wind to generate power. Not needing to pay for fuel translates to long-term cost savings and predictability for emission-free power. That’s a win for consumers. Offshore wind is a sensible investment towards energy independence, electric grid resilience, and decarbonization.

The multi-state procurement was initiated to help the three states solicit major project bids that were more favorable than if each state pursued offshore wind individually. Instead of competing, the southern New England states launched a cooperative collaborative approach that had wind developers compete to serve the region’s collective interest. By collaborating and sharing resources, the states could access more cost-savings and leverage efficiencies of the regional grid.

The good news is that there is still time —just barely— for Connecticut to seize this opportunity by making a critical investment in Connecticut’s future; Gov. Ned Lamont can still opt into the regional bids, joining our New England partners before the next steps of the process in early November.  But the clock is ticking, and now is the moment for Connecticut to make a wise investment in its energy future.

Kat Burnham is the Connecticut state-lead at the national business association Advanced Energy United.

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