Business
Earth’s 1st Asteroid Mining Prospector Heads to the Launchpad
A private company is aiming to heave a microwave oven-size spacecraft toward an asteroid later this week, its goal to kick off a future where precious metals are mined around the solar system to create vast fortunes on Earth.
“If this works out, this will probably be the biggest business ever conceived of,” said Matt Gialich, the founder and chief executive of AstroForge, the builder and operator of the robotic probe.
That may sound familiar: A decade ago, news stories were aflutter about the wealth promised by asteroid mining companies. But things didn’t quite work out.
“We blossomed three or four years too early for the big gold rush of investor enthusiasm for space projects,” said David Gump, the former chief executive of Deep Space Industries, one of the earlier batch of would-be asteroid miners. Eventually the money dried up; Deep Space Industries was sold off in 2019 and never reached an asteroid.
AstroForge is betting on things being different this time around. The California company has already launched a demonstration spacecraft into Earth orbit and raised $55 million in funding. Now the company is set to actually travel toward a near-Earth asteroid in deep space.
AstroForge’s second robotic spacecraft, called Odin, is bundled into a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket that will also launch a privately built moon lander and a NASA-operated lunar orbiter as soon as Wednesday from Florida. About 45 minutes after the launch, Odin will separate and begin its solo journey into deep space, while the moon missions — the Athena lander from Intuitive Machines and NASA’s Lunar Trailblazer — take off on their own separate journeys.
No commercial company has ever launched an operational mission beyond the moon, and AstroForge is the first company to receive a license from the Federal Communications Commission that allows it to transmit from deep space. AstroForge will communicate with the spacecraft using undisclosed dishes in India, South Africa, Australia and the United States.
At first, AstroForge kept its target asteroid a secret, fearing competitors. But in January, the company announced the destination, an object called 2022 OB5. Mr. Gialich said he was more confident of AstroForge’s advantage.
“We’re the only one that’s actually doing anything,” he said. “Who else is preparing to go to an asteroid?”
Asteroid 2022 OB5 is small, no more than 330 feet across, about the size of a football field. AstroForge’s science team assessed the asteroid by using telescopes, including the Lowell Observatory and the Large Binocular Telescope in Arizona, to estimate its metallic content. They believe that 2022 OB5 is an M-type, a class of asteroids comprising 5 percent of known space rocks that may have a high amount of metal. The analysis of the asteroid has not yet been published.
Stephanie Jarmak, a planetary scientist at the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, said the company’s analysis was plausible.
“There are several different ways to determine whether it’s an M-type or not,” she said, including studying the asteroid’s brightness, or albedo. A higher brightness suggests the presence of more metal. She lauded the company for being more open about its target asteroid. “I thought that was really nice,” she said.
M-type asteroids are thought to be rich in metals such as iron and nickel. These could be useful as a resource for construction in space, perhaps to build new spacecraft and machinery. However, some M-types may also be rich in more valuable platinum group metals, or P.G.M.s, used in devices such as smartphones. The windfall would be huge if these could be mined in abundance and brought to Earth.
“A single one-kilometer-diameter asteroid, if it was platinum-bearing, would contain about 117,000 tons of platinum,” said Mitch Hunter-Scullion, the founder and chief executive of the Asteroid Mining Corporation in Britain. His company is taking a slower approach and plans to demonstrate technologies on the moon later this decade.
“That’s about 680 years of global supply. You’re talking about centuries of platinum demand from a single asteroid,” Mr. Hunter-Scullion said. “Even if you get 1,000 tons of platinum, you’re sitting there with the next half century of mobile phones.”
Not everyone is convinced that so much valuable metal will be found inside M-type asteroids.
“There’s not enough P.G.M.s in asteroids to justify that as a stand-alone business,” said Joel C. Sercel, the founder and chief executive of TransAstra, a company that is developing a giant bag that could be used to grab and extract resources from asteroids in the future. The company will test a small mock-up of the technology aboard the International Space Station following a launch to the station this summer.
The legalities of mining asteroids and selling their resources remain uncertain.
In 2015, President Obama signed a law allowing asteroid resources to be sold on Earth. But no one has yet put this law to the test.
“Is AstroForge going to make a claim? Does the fact they reach this asteroid before anybody else mean nobody else can go to it?” asked Michelle Hanlon, a law professor specializing in space at the University of Mississippi. “It’s going to be interesting to see the international reaction.”
Odin will arrive in late 2025 after a journey of about 300 days to 2022 OB5. The asteroid follows an orbit around the sun similar to Earth’s. The probe will fly past the asteroid at a distance of 0.6 miles, using two black-and-white cameras to snap pictures. Zooming by the object at thousands of miles per hour, the spacecraft will have an encounter that will last five and a half hours.
“And it’s probably only the last 10 minutes that we’re getting pictures bigger than a pixel,” Mr. Gialich said.
The goal is for these pictures to be enough to tell if the asteroid is metallic.
“Hopefully it looks shiny,” Mr. Gialich said. However, it’s very possible that any metal could be mixed into the asteroid’s soil and not be visible.
“I’m not sure how much compositional information they can get purely from images,” Dr. Jarmak, the planetary scientist, said.
Craters on the surface may hint at hidden metal though, Mr. Gialich said, adding: “We expect to see cracking on the surface” that could be indicative of metallic content.
The spacecraft will also precisely track the asteroid’s position in space during the flyby. Doing so could allow the density of the asteroid to be calculated, based on its gravitational tug on the spacecraft. Higher density would hint at more metallic content.
Success is not guaranteed. AstroForge’s first mission, Brokkr-1, was launched into low-Earth orbit in April 2023 to test the company’s planned asteroid refining technology. But the mission encountered problems and burned up in the atmosphere. Mr. Gialich said that AstroForge had improved its technologies on the Odin spacecraft by relying on components produced in-house.
Vestri, the third mission of AstroForge, will be its most ambitious. That spacecraft, the size of a refrigerator, will be designed to land on an asteroid as soon as next year, possibly even 2022 OB5 if the metallic content is confirmed. Vestri’s landing legs would be equipped with magnets designed to stick to the surface of the asteroid and be capable of estimating how many P.G.M.s are present.
It’s unclear how successful this mission will be. “If it’s made out of solid metal it will stick,” said Benjamin Weiss, a planetary scientist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. However, many asteroids are known to be rubble piles, essentially collections of rocks held together loosely by gravity, such as the asteroid Bennu that was visited by NASA’s ORISIS-REx spacecraft.
“They are barely held together,” Dr. Weiss said, meaning that the magnets might just end up pulling a few rocks away from the surface as the lander drifts away.
Only one spacecraft, the Rosetta spacecraft from the European Space Agency, has visited a suspected M-type asteroid before, a flyby of the asteroid 21 Lutetia in 2010. The presence of metal at that time was inconclusive. A much more capable mission, NASA’s $1.2 billion Psyche spacecraft, is currently on its way to an asteroid bearing the same name by 2029. Astronomers think the asteroid may be a fragment of a failed planet’s core and is rich in metal.
Results from the Odin mission’s analysis of 2022 OB5 could be a tantalizing tease for Psyche. “If it turns out it’s made of solid metal, that would support the idea that some of these larger bodies like Psyche could be the cores of differentiated bodies,” Dr. Weiss said.
Lindy Elkins-Tanton at Arizona State University, the principal investigator on Psyche and also an adviser to AstroForge, said that the opportunities afforded by commercial deep space missions like Odin are exciting, enabling small and fast missions at low cost. “It’s going to be a bit of a game-changer,” she said.
Others are more focused on what Odin means for asteroid mining in the present tense.
“It’s probably the highest achievement in the sector so far,” Mr. Hunter-Scullion of Asteroid Mining Corporation said. Mr. Sercel of TransAstra also applauded the company.
“We’re gung-ho for AstroForge and wish them the best of luck,” he said. “We’re behind them 100 percent.”
Now there’s just the small matter of the launch and journey to the asteroid, and the hope that what Odin finds will lead to the riches long touted from asteroid mining.
“If we make it, I’m popping champagne,” Mr. Gialich said.
Business
The Return for These Investors Isn’t Money, It’s More Affordable Housing
A few months ago, Matt Bedsole got a call from two real estate developers asking for his help. Their plan to build a four-story apartment complex in Chattanooga, Tenn., had a financial hole that no backer seemed eager to fill. The developers needed $8 million. Would Mr. Bedsole be interested in stepping in?
Mr. Bedsole is not a normal investor. He is the chief executive of Invest Chattanooga, a fund set up by the city of 200,000 to invest in local apartment projects. Unlike private equity firms — the main backers of new construction — he judges deals not solely on their financial return, but on how much housing they can deliver the city.
The apartment complex cleared that hurdle. It called for 170 new units that would replace a self-storage center ringed by barbed wire, in a gentrifying part of the city. But Mr. Bedsole had terms. In exchange for the $8 million investment, he got a 51 percent stake in the building and an agreement that 30 percent of its units be priced below market rate. The developers said yes. They closed the deal over pastrami sandwiches.
“Money is tight and developers don’t have a ton of options for capital right now,” Mr. Bedsole said in an interview. “We have it, but we want affordable units in the deal.”
Invest Chattanooga is part of a new class of government-backed funds that invest directly in new housing. The aim is to speed up construction and create housing that is permanently affordable and controlled locally. In the process they are rewriting how local housing programs have traditionally operated.
Each effort is a little different, but the guiding principle is to get developers to build more housing, with lower rents, in exchange for public investment. Instead of asking a high rate of return, as a private investor would, these funds require less money back from developers but stipulate that a portion of the units carry below market-rate rents.
They come at a time when a mix of higher interest rates and rising costs for insurance and materials like lumber have caused investors to run from new construction. Economists estimate the nation needs about 2 million new housing units, yet the pace of home building slowed last year.
Some states, like Hawaii, have created funds that lend money to developers on more favorable terms than Wall Street or a bank would, while others, including New York, have created funds to accelerate stalled projects. Atlanta aims to use public land to stimulate new home building: The city’s Urban Development Corporation contributes city-owned land to private development projects and keeps a stake after the building is completed.
Then there are public investment funds like the one in Chattanooga.
There are about two dozen of these funds in the United States, said Shaun Donovan, the chief executive of Enterprise Community Partners, which recently created a team to help them and is trying to set up its own fund to augment their efforts. The funds provide “capital, but capital at this moment of maximum impact, which is getting the building out of the ground,” said Mr. Donovan, who served as the housing secretary in the Obama administration.
Most of these efforts were inspired by Montgomery County, Md., whose Housing Opportunity Commission has for decades been a kind of national laboratory for affordable housing innovation. Mr. Bedsole has been something of a human catalyst in this process: He helped create Atlanta’s system based on the Montgomery County model, then took these ideas to Chattanooga last year.
“The cavalry isn’t coming, so we have to figure this out on our own,” said Tim Kelly, Chattanooga’s mayor.
From Public Housing to Patchwork
Figuring out how to produce low-cost housing for people who cannot afford market rents is a riddle that has vexed cities throughout the modern era. Governments have spent much of the past century veering between public and private sector solutions. Today most new affordable housing is delivered by a hybrid system, in which public subsidies finance private development.
That system is a product of shifting politics more than considered policy design. Starting in the 1970s, the federal government essentially stopped building public housing as part of a broader shift away from welfare benefits. What replaced it was a patchwork of rental vouchers and tax benefits — the biggest of which, the Low-Income Housing Tax Credit (LIHTC), was created in 1986 — for companies that provide affordable housing. Local governments now depend on that credit to build everything from low-cost apartments for teachers to supportive housing for people leaving homeless shelters.
One of the problems with low-income tax credits is that they are complicated to use and expire over time, often between 15 and 30 years, at which point the building’s owner can start charging market rents. It’s a galling turn for cities, since they often give millions in grants to finance affordable projects. To prevent building owners from evicting low-income tenants after the affordability restrictions lapse, many governments end up buying buildings back.
“So now the state has paid for the building twice — initially with subsidies, and then by giving a wad of cash to the developer,” said Stanley Chang, a state senator in Hawaii. “That is obscene.”
A Small Chip at a Growing Problem
Mr. Kelly, the mayor of Chattanooga, said he created Invest Chattanooga to prevent that obscenity. A businessman who ran car dealerships and co-founded the local soccer club, he was elected in 2021 (and re-elected last year) on an affordable housing platform.
At first, Chattanooga responded to its housing crisis by overhauling its zoning laws to allow more density, and legalizing backyard units on residential lots. This was the formula followed by many state and local governments over the past decade as rent and house prices have ballooned. But, as in many cities, the construction that followed leaned heavily toward higher-end buildings, where rents are too expensive for large swaths of the work force.
According to a city report, over the past five years Chattanooga has lost about half of its apartments that rent for less than $1,000 a month. The new apartments rent for too much, while federal programs do not produce enough units to meet the need.
But there are two ingredients in construction: land and money. So Chattanooga decided to focus on the second of these and became an investor, putting up $20 million to create Invest Chattanooga and hiring Mr. Bedsole from Atlanta to run it.
Invest Chattanooga is run like a business that makes money, then turns profits into cheaper housing. It puts up the initial cash, usually a mix of equity and debt financing, that developers need to get a bank loan. In exchange for the money, projects built with the fund must have at least 30 percent of their units reserved for families making below the median income in the area.
The city gets a return but it’s low — about 8 percent on the recent deal to replace the storage center, versus private equity firms that in many cases ask for double that amount. That difference can mean a developer saves several million dollars on a multiunit building, making it possible to lower the rent. And unlike units built with federal tax credits, Invest Chattanooga owns the building so can capture the upside of higher land values down the line.
Mr. Bedsole said Invest Chattanooga has a relatively modest goal of producing 100 affordable units a year by 2030, and to raise an additional $20 million for more projects. It is one little chip in a problem that gets bigger every day. Unlike the public housing agencies of old, his agency is not replacing developers in the process of building housing. Rather, it is trying to replace the financiers who decide what does and does not get built.
“I’m not competing with developers,” Mr. Bedsole said. “I’m competing with private equity.”
Business
Your guide to the California insurance commissioner’s race: Who will replace Ricardo Lara?
State Sen. Ben Allen (D, El Segundo) addresses the crowd during the California Democratic Convention in San Francisco.
(Christina House / Los Angeles Times)
Ben Allen, 48, is a third-term Democratic state senator who represents the Palisades fire zone and, since the blazes, has authored bills that provide tax relief to fire victims and raise payments for personal property losses. He previously made a name for himself on environmental issues, including leading the effort to put a successful $10-billion climate bond on the 2024 ballot. A native and resident of Santa Monica, Allen attended Harvard and has a law degree from UC Berkeley. He previously served on the Santa Monica-Malibu Unified School District Board. He is endorsed by California U.S. Sens. Adam Schiff and Alex Padilla.
Jane Kim is running for California insurance commissioner.
(Jane Kim)
Jane Kim, 48, is a Democrat from San Francisco who served as a city supervisor (2011-19) and has a progressive record. Her accomplishments include leading a groundbreaking campaign to make the city’s community college tuition free. She served as California political director for Bernie Sanders’ 2020 presidential run and is endorsed by Sanders, the progressive independent senator from Vermont. The daughter of Korean immigrants, she attended Stanford and has a law degree from UC Berkeley. Prior to her political career, she was an attorney at the Lawyers’ Committee for Civil Rights and is a leader of the Working Families Party.
Steven Bradford is running for California insurance commissioner.
(Steve Bradford)
Steven Bradford, 66, served as a Democratic state senator from 2016 to 2024, representing parts of south Los Angeles County and the South Bay. Key accomplishments included a bill that created the first statewide process to decertify police officers who commit wrongdoing. He previously served in the Assembly and in 1997 was the first African American elected to the city council of Gardena, a community he grew up in and where he continues to reside. He worked at IBM and Southern California Edison before entering politics full time. A graduate of Cal State Dominguez Hills, he is endorsed by Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass.
Patrick Wolff is running for California insurance commissioner.
Patrick Wolff, 58, is a Democrat, chartered financial analyst and real estate investor who’d never run for public office but has been active in local San Francisco politics. He serves on the citizen oversight committee for the San Francisco Unified School District bond program. A chess grandmaster who once played professionally, he pursued a career in finance, founding a hedge fund, working at a family office and building the auto and home insurance brokerage business of Capital One — relevant experience, he says. A graduate of Harvard, he has donated $500,000 to his campaign and loaned it another $100,000.
Robert Howell is running for California insurance commissioner.
(Robert Howell)
Robert Howell, 71, of San José, was the Republican candidate in the 2022 general election for insurance commissioner, which he lost to Lara by 20 points. He is the owner of Silicon Valley electronics testing firm Exatron and has been involved in GOP politics for years. A populist, Howell founded one of the first Tea Party groups in the state and is a member of the Santa Clara County Republican Central Committee. Howell also has run for state Senate and lost. He is endorsed by the conservative California Republican Assembly.
Stacy Korsgaden is running for California insurance commissioner.
(Stacy A. Korsgaden)
Stacy Korsgaden, 62, is a Republican and Grover Beach financial adviser who owned a Farmers Insurance agency for decades. A free market advocate who cites her industry experience, Korsgaden says Proposition 103, which regulates the industry, has limited the availability of insurance. She has lost in runs for Grover Beach mayor and for a seat on the San Luis Obispo County board of supervisors. A graduate of Cal Poly, she is endorsed by state Senate Minority Leader Brian Jones. Korsgaden attended the Jan. 6, 2021 rally at the U.S. Capitol but said she abhors the violence that took place. She is endorsed by the California Republican Party.
Merritt Farren is running for California insurance commissioner.
(Merritt Farren)
Merritt Farren, 65, is a lifelong Democrat who switched parties to run for insurance commissioner as a Republican. He is a newcomer to political office whose campaign leans heavily on his personal experience of losing his Pacific Palisades home in the fire. Last year, he intervened as a consumer advocate in State Farm’s request for a rate hike, seeking to tie it to its claims-handling practices. He points to his experience as an in-house legal counsel for Amazon and Disney as good preparation for running the insurance department. He is a graduate of Stanford and obtained a law degree from UC Berkeley.
Also running are Republicans Sean Lee, a financial services executive, and Eric Thor Aarnio, a contractor. Eduardo “Lalo” Vargas, a science teacher, is the Peace and Freedom Party candidate. Keith W. Davis, an insurance agent, is the American Independent Party candidate.
Business
Chizi, Standup Comic Exiled in China, Wants to Be More Than Just ‘a Rebel Comedian’
Wide-shouldered and lanky, Chizi makes a dramatic impression. A few days before the show, he shaved his famous dreadlocks. But when he walked onstage in an oversize white T-shirt, a pair of black pants, and white and red Nike sneakers, the nerves were still visible. He forgot a few lines. He paused awkwardly a couple of times. Later, on social media, he would offer an apology for what he considered his poor performance. “I could do better,” he wrote. The audience didn’t seem to mind. The people chuckled, laughed and applauded.
He riffed mostly about his childhood — teachers who humiliated him for disrupting class, a mother who loved and hit him, being an outlier in a country that didn’t tolerate curiosity and individuality. The material was personal, even tender at moments. Political references were sprinkled throughout, but they were subtle.
Then, near the end of the set, he referred to Mr. Xi, China’s paramount leader, obliquely as “the husband of Peng Liyuan,” the folk singer who was once far more famous than her husband. Several women in front of me who had been laughing and clapping went suddenly still. Talking about Mr. Xi in an unfavorable fashion is the ultimate taboo in China. Reducing him to his domestic relationship in a public event was shocking.
After the show, we sat down to talk. He chose his words carefully. When I relayed a friend’s criticism — similar to others’ online — that he seemed to have pulled his punches on Xi Jinping, he laughed. “It’s not meant to satisfy you,” he said. The choice he made onstage was deliberate.
Free speech is a tool, he told me. The temptation is to use it simply because you can. “It’s exhilarating,” he said. But that, he added, can be a trap, and chasing approval is its own form of corruption, as dangerous to comedy as censorship itself.
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