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Here’s why the Massachusetts snow forecast changed

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Here’s why the Massachusetts snow forecast changed


BOSTON – From the beginning, the meteorologists at WBZ-TV in Boston had a bad feeling about the snow storm heading to Massachusetts Tuesday. The snowfall predictions took a major turn downwards from Sunday to Monday and many people want to know why.

Snow predictions early discussions

Here’s an example of what we were talking about behind the scenes over the weekend while trying to develop an accurate forecast of snowfall totals.

Saturday 1:21 p.m.

Text from Eric Fisher to me: “I dunno, just feels like a weird headfake storm to me”

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Sunday 4:05 p.m.

Text from Eric Fisher to me: “Still feeling kind of leery of a late shift south”

Monday 12:47 a.m. on WBZ-TV News after the Super Bowl

Eric talking to David Wade and Lisa Hughes: “I’m a little worried it’s going to slip farther south; we will watch the trends tomorrow”

Granted some of these conversations were private, but we did try to caution our viewers about the uncertainty with this particular storm. Trust me, I know, in the end, many folks aren’t hanging on every word that is said on TV and most are just waiting for the snow forecast map.

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Winter storms are like snowflakes, no two are exactly alike. This is a big part of what makes forecasting in New England so intriguing. You can literally do this job your entire life (see Barry Burbank, well over 40 years), and still have sleepless nights wondering if the atmosphere will behave as you predicted.

Contrary to popular belief, meteorologists don’t just go outside and stick their fingers in the air to determine the forecast. We rely on very complex weather models. These models are run on giant supercomputers capable of churning out quadrillions of calculations per second. Seriously! That’s 15 zeros!

Despite this insane amount of technology, in the end, the weather is still somewhat unpredictable. There are just too many moving parts. We are light years better at forecasting now than we were 10, 20, 30 years ago, but still far from perfect. We would love to be able to accurately predict how much snow your town is going to get four days in advance but that just isn’t possible. This is, after all, still a FORECAST. Things will change. Sometimes dramatically so.

What happened to the snow forecast in Boston

Over the weekend, you likely started seeing snowfall forecast maps popping up here, there and everywhere. By Sunday, most of the model guidance seemed to be converging on a storm track that would produce a widespread 6-to-12″ of snow across southern New England. However, with this storm, there was a very fine line between getting a whole bunch of snow and getting nothing. We knew that there would be some very intense snow bands that would produce 1-to-3″ per hour. If your town ended up underneath this banding, you were in for an intense 3-6 hours of snow. Just a few miles to the north, flurries.

Minor shift, major change in snow predictions

By Sunday night, and more so Monday morning, there was a minor shift in the model output. It appeared that the center of the storm may pass about 50 miles farther south that what was originally forecast. For a storm system several hundred miles across, 50 miles isn’t much. BUT, if those 50 miles just happen to be right over Massachusetts a minor shift becomes a MAJOR story. Shifting the highest snowfall totals (8-12″) 50 miles southward had a major impact of hundreds of thousands of people. For reference…50 miles (as the crow flies) in Massachusetts is like going from Lawrence to Plymouth or Boston to Falmouth.

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So, much to the disappointment of some, and the delight of others, we made a significant change to our snowfall forecast Monday afternoon. Basically, everything was shifted about 25-50 miles south.

Unfortunately, many towns, schools and businesses had already chosen to make a decision to close on Tuesday, nearly 24 hours prior to the first flakes. I get it, you want to give folks as much notice as possible to find babysitters, change plans etc. Sure, occasionally you get a multi-day mega-blizzard, and the call is an easy one. Most of the time, however, making those calls a full day in advance is a dangerous proposition and NOT one that any meteorologist would recommend.

Part of me longs for the old days, when we would all wake up at 5 a.m. and flip on WBZ NewsRadio 1030 to hear whether school was canceled or not. Strange that back then, when communication was much more rudimentary, we waited until the last minute to make those decisions. Whereas now, when we can get the word out in seconds via text, robocall, social media etc, we make the calls way sooner.

At the end of nearly every blog I write, I urge everyone to stay tuned to updated forecasts. That isn’t just a throwaway line, we really mean it!

The atmosphere is a crazy place. A thunderstorm unexpectedly forming in Texas on Monday could start a chain reaction that leads to massive changes to Boston’s weather a few days later.

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We know and respect that you all have busy lives with kids to care for and businesses to run. Our goal is to provide you with the most accurate information possible and, just as important, keeping you updated when changes occur.



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Red Sox insider hints Boston may have Pablo Sandoval problem with Masataka Yoshida

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Red Sox insider hints Boston may have Pablo Sandoval problem with Masataka Yoshida


The Boston Red Sox were expected to have a busy offseason to build on their short 2025 playoff appearance, their first in four seasons. Boston delivered, albeit not in the way many reporters and fans expected — Alex Bregman left and no one was traded from the outfield surplus.

Roster construction questions have loomed over the Red Sox since last season. They were emphasized by Masataka Yoshida’s return from surgery rehab and Roman Anthony’s arrival to the big leagues. Boston has four-six outfielders, depending where it envisions Yoshida and Kristian Campbell playing, and a designated hitter spot it likes to keep flexible — moving an outfielder makes the most sense to solve this quandary.

The best case-scenario for addressing the packed outfield would be to find a trade suitor for Yoshida, which has proven difficult-to-impossible over his first three seasons with the Red Sox. Red Sox insiders Chris Cotillo and Sean McAdam of MassLive think Boston may have to make an extremely difficult decision to free up Yoshida’s roster spot.

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“You wonder, at what point does this become a — not Patrick Sandoval situation — but a Pablo Sandoval, where you rip the Band-Aid off and just release,” McAdam theorized on the “Fenway Rundown” podcast (subscription required).

Red Sox insiders wonder if/when Boston will release Masataka Yoshida, as it did with Pablo Sandoval in 2017

Pablo Sandoval is infamous among Red Sox fans. He signed a five-year, $90 million deal before the 2015 season and he only lasted two and a half years before the Red Sox cut him loose. His tenure was marked by career lows at the plate, injuries and a perceived lack of effort that soured things quickly with Boston. Yoshida hasn’t lived up to the expectations the Red Sox had when they signed him, but he’s no Sandoval.

McAdam postulated that the Red Sox may be waiting until there is less money remaining on Yoshida’s contract before they potentially release him. Like Sandoval, Yoshida signed a five-year, $90 million deal before the 2023 season, which has only just reached its halfway point. The Red Sox still owe him over $36 million, and by releasing him, they’d be forced to eat that money.

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The amount of money remaining on Yoshida’s contract is just one obstacle that may be preventing the Red Sox from finding a trade partner to move him elsewhere. Yoshida has never played more than 140 games in a MLB season with 303 total over his three-year tenure, mostly because he’s dealt with so many injuries since moving stateside.

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Maybe the Red Sox could attach a top prospect to him and eat some of his contract money to entice another team into a trade, like they already did with Jordan Hicks this winter. But that would require sacrificing a quality prospect and it would cost more money, just to move a good hitter who tries hard at his job.

There’s no easy way to fit Yoshida onto Boston’s roster, but the decision to salary dump or release him will be just as hard. Yoshida hasn’t been a bad player for the Red Sox and he doesn’t deserve the Sandoval treatment, but his trade value may only decrease if he spends another year with minimal playing time. Alex Cora and Craig Breslow have a real dilemma on their hands with this roster.



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Thirteen states have adopted a simple criminal justice reform. It’s time for Mass. to join them. – The Boston Globe

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Thirteen states have adopted a simple criminal justice reform. It’s time for Mass. to join them. – The Boston Globe


That law is not just right. It’s also smart. But we have been lousy about putting it into practice.

Only 10 percent of those eligible to have their records sealed here have actually done it, according to The Clean Slate Initiative, an advocacy group. That’s because we’ve made it impossibly complicated.

Having a criminal record is an enormous obstacle for people who have done their time and are trying to rebuild their lives. A conviction, even a minor one, even from long ago, can mean being rejected by employers and denied by landlords. Cases that were dismissed, or which prosecutors dropped, and even many that ended in not guilty findings also show up on criminal background checks. That can keep someone from getting life insurance, credit, a real estate license, and other professional certifications. It also means they can’t volunteer at their kids’ schools or coach Little League.

“I have grown men in my office crying because they can’t get housing,” said Leslie Credle, who heads Justice 4 Housing, which helps move formerly incarcerated people into permanent homes. “Individuals who were once breadwinners come home and now they’re a burden to their family. It’s a lifetime sentence … even if you have done your time.”

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Maybe you’ve gotten this far and are thinking this doesn’t affect you. It does.

Nearly half of US children have at least one parent with a criminal record. People with solid jobs and stable housing are more likely to support their families and communities. They are more likely to fill vacancies at all kinds of businesses that need more workers to thrive. They are also way less likely to reoffend, or to rely on public benefits.

So why have we made the process so much harder than it needs to be?

Right now, a person who has served her time and stayed out of trouble for the waiting period must petition the commissioner of probation in writing, or go before a judge. It’s needlessly complex, requiring time and familiarity with a backlogged and sometimes hostile system. And that’s if they know they can get their records sealed in the first place.

“It’s like double jeopardy,” said Shay, 36, who finally got hers sealed a few years ago. “You can’t try somebody twice for the same crime, but you can double punish them. In my case, I was punished triple.”

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Shay, who asked that her last name be withheld, was 22 when she was convicted of carrying a dangerous weapon — a misdemeanor. She did six months in jail, paid thousands in fines and other costs, and had a successful probation. Since then, her record has held her back in ways big and small.

“I had to keep explaining it to people when I wanted to get a job and apply for housing,” she said. “I could not go on any field trips with my daughter, so now she had to suffer.” They had to stay on other people’s couches for months because a landlord ran a background check and gave an apartment to someone else.

Shay knew she could seal her record, thanks to Greater Boston Legal Services. But doing it, even with an attorney’s help, was a whole other thing. Her first application got lost somewhere between the post office and the probation department, which cost her a year. It took two years to process her second application, she said.

“Now here we are, years later, and it’s no longer a burden I have to worry about,” said Shay, who now works to help those with records get into the cannabis industry.

She’s doing well now, but why should it ever be this hard?

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In 13 other states — including Oklahoma, Michigan, and Utah — they automatically seal criminal records after someone has met the conditions. It’s embarrassing that Massachusetts hasn’t joined them yet. Legislators have introduced measures to automatically seal eligible criminal records a bunch of times since 2019, but they’ve gone nowhere.

Clean Slate Massachusetts is working to make this time different, with the help of a huge coalition of community partners, including business leaders who understand we all thrive when more people can find work and stability. Yet again, legislators have proposed two bills that would require the state to automatically seal records in cases that are already eligible under the law.

So much about this country is messed up right now. Here is something we can actually fix.

What the heck are we waiting for?

—–

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This story has been updated to correct the charge of which Shay was convicted.


Globe columnist Yvonne Abraham can be reached at yvonne.abraham@globe.com.





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Riders look forward to regular service after snow slows MBTA Commuter Rail line

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Riders look forward to regular service after snow slows MBTA Commuter Rail line


Most of the MBTA is back to regular service after Monday’s blizzard, but one commuter line remains on a modified schedule.

Riders of the Fall River/New Bedford MBTA Commuter Rail Line are hoping for things to be back to normal soon. The overwhelming amount of snow was still slowing things down Wednesday.

Ana Berahe is back in Brockton after traveling abroad. She’s never heard the word “delay” so many times in her life, from flights to train rides.

“I’m super happy, because it’s been three days that I was supposed to be home,” she said.

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Phillip Eng, general manager of the MBTA and interim secretary of MassDOT, speaks about transportation in the wake of a major blizzard.

In Fall River, streets remained blanketed and cars buried with snow on Wednesday afternoon. Crews are working around the clock to make roads passable.

Keolis shared video of crews clearing train tracks Wednesday.

“I’m waiting on the train, or I’m waiting in the cold, out here, in the slush,” said commuter Aaliyah Alba.

“It was a little bit of a problem, just because they were doing the bus from Fall River to Taunton,” said Jeremy Williams of Brockton. “It was a little delayed, but other than that, it was fine.”

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