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Here’s why the Massachusetts snow forecast changed

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Here’s why the Massachusetts snow forecast changed


BOSTON – From the beginning, the meteorologists at WBZ-TV in Boston had a bad feeling about the snow storm heading to Massachusetts Tuesday. The snowfall predictions took a major turn downwards from Sunday to Monday and many people want to know why.

Snow predictions early discussions

Here’s an example of what we were talking about behind the scenes over the weekend while trying to develop an accurate forecast of snowfall totals.

Saturday 1:21 p.m.

Text from Eric Fisher to me: “I dunno, just feels like a weird headfake storm to me”

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Sunday 4:05 p.m.

Text from Eric Fisher to me: “Still feeling kind of leery of a late shift south”

Monday 12:47 a.m. on WBZ-TV News after the Super Bowl

Eric talking to David Wade and Lisa Hughes: “I’m a little worried it’s going to slip farther south; we will watch the trends tomorrow”

Granted some of these conversations were private, but we did try to caution our viewers about the uncertainty with this particular storm. Trust me, I know, in the end, many folks aren’t hanging on every word that is said on TV and most are just waiting for the snow forecast map.

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Winter storms are like snowflakes, no two are exactly alike. This is a big part of what makes forecasting in New England so intriguing. You can literally do this job your entire life (see Barry Burbank, well over 40 years), and still have sleepless nights wondering if the atmosphere will behave as you predicted.

Contrary to popular belief, meteorologists don’t just go outside and stick their fingers in the air to determine the forecast. We rely on very complex weather models. These models are run on giant supercomputers capable of churning out quadrillions of calculations per second. Seriously! That’s 15 zeros!

Despite this insane amount of technology, in the end, the weather is still somewhat unpredictable. There are just too many moving parts. We are light years better at forecasting now than we were 10, 20, 30 years ago, but still far from perfect. We would love to be able to accurately predict how much snow your town is going to get four days in advance but that just isn’t possible. This is, after all, still a FORECAST. Things will change. Sometimes dramatically so.

What happened to the snow forecast in Boston

Over the weekend, you likely started seeing snowfall forecast maps popping up here, there and everywhere. By Sunday, most of the model guidance seemed to be converging on a storm track that would produce a widespread 6-to-12″ of snow across southern New England. However, with this storm, there was a very fine line between getting a whole bunch of snow and getting nothing. We knew that there would be some very intense snow bands that would produce 1-to-3″ per hour. If your town ended up underneath this banding, you were in for an intense 3-6 hours of snow. Just a few miles to the north, flurries.

Minor shift, major change in snow predictions

By Sunday night, and more so Monday morning, there was a minor shift in the model output. It appeared that the center of the storm may pass about 50 miles farther south that what was originally forecast. For a storm system several hundred miles across, 50 miles isn’t much. BUT, if those 50 miles just happen to be right over Massachusetts a minor shift becomes a MAJOR story. Shifting the highest snowfall totals (8-12″) 50 miles southward had a major impact of hundreds of thousands of people. For reference…50 miles (as the crow flies) in Massachusetts is like going from Lawrence to Plymouth or Boston to Falmouth.

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So, much to the disappointment of some, and the delight of others, we made a significant change to our snowfall forecast Monday afternoon. Basically, everything was shifted about 25-50 miles south.

Unfortunately, many towns, schools and businesses had already chosen to make a decision to close on Tuesday, nearly 24 hours prior to the first flakes. I get it, you want to give folks as much notice as possible to find babysitters, change plans etc. Sure, occasionally you get a multi-day mega-blizzard, and the call is an easy one. Most of the time, however, making those calls a full day in advance is a dangerous proposition and NOT one that any meteorologist would recommend.

Part of me longs for the old days, when we would all wake up at 5 a.m. and flip on WBZ NewsRadio 1030 to hear whether school was canceled or not. Strange that back then, when communication was much more rudimentary, we waited until the last minute to make those decisions. Whereas now, when we can get the word out in seconds via text, robocall, social media etc, we make the calls way sooner.

At the end of nearly every blog I write, I urge everyone to stay tuned to updated forecasts. That isn’t just a throwaway line, we really mean it!

The atmosphere is a crazy place. A thunderstorm unexpectedly forming in Texas on Monday could start a chain reaction that leads to massive changes to Boston’s weather a few days later.

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We know and respect that you all have busy lives with kids to care for and businesses to run. Our goal is to provide you with the most accurate information possible and, just as important, keeping you updated when changes occur.



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‘ICE Out Everywhere’: Protesters to rally on Boston Common today

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‘ICE Out Everywhere’: Protesters to rally on Boston Common today


Protesters will gather in Boston today at a mass rally demanding an end to all state and local cooperation with U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement, and calling for stronger protections for immigrant communities.

The 11:30 a.m. “ICE Out Everywhere” rally, organized by Mass 50501, UU Mass Action, Indivisible Mass Coalition, Boston PSL, MEJA, and allied groups, will feature speakers, signs, and collective action that is expected to focus on nonviolent resistance, mutual aid, and community protection, according to organizers.

Participants were encouraged to bring signs, friends and their voices as they collective call on state leaders to take concrete steps to stop collaboration with ICE.

Protesters gathered in cities across the country calling for an end to ICE’s crackdown, with participants saying it’s become an issue of human rights.

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This rally comes after the national day of action on Friday, where a call to action on social media said no work, no school, and no shopping all in support of a general strike against ICE and the immigration enforcement that’s been happening across the country.

Businesses across New England answered the call to close. Other local businesses shared messages of support for the strike, but many said they couldn’t afford to close, so they supported the effort through donations.

Crowds also gathered in the streets of Boston on Friday afternoon, calling for a stop to ICE activity, citing the killings of Renee Good and Alex Pretti in Minneapolis, as well as confrontations in other cities.



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Boston College Men’s hockey takes down Boston University ahead of Beanpot

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Boston College Men’s hockey takes down Boston University ahead of Beanpot


BOSTON – Boston College took care of business on Commonwealth Ave before taking the fight to Causeway Street.

The Eagles emerged victorious in the 299th Battle of Commonwealth Ave., beating rival Boston University 4-1 on Friday night at Agganis Arena.

The Hockey East blood feud served as a dress rehearsal for Monday night’s 73rd Annual Beanpot Hockey Tournament twin bill on Monday night at the TD Garden.

“You want to have momentum and positive energy,” said BC coach Greg Brown. “We are kind of trending in the right direction.”

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No. 13 BC improved to 14-8-1 overall, 10-5-0 in Hockey East and will face Harvard in the opener at 5 p.m. The defending Beanpot champion Terriers fell to 12-13-1, 8-10-0 in Hockey East, and will take on Northeastern in the nightcap (8). No. 9 BU beat No. 1 BC, 4-1, in last year’s Beanpot title game.

“There is not much you can do and you have to give yourself an opportunity Monday to try and get to that next Monday at the right time,” said BU coach Jay Pandolfo, who won two straight Beanpots as a BU player. “I think that is what we have to focus on and if you keep dwelling on what is happening now, that is not going to help us.

“We all know where we are at this point. This is a good opportunity to win a game on Monday and have a chance to play for a championship. But you have to get the job done Monday first and it comes quickly.”

BC freshman goaltender Louka Cloutier was the difference maker in the contest. The reigning Hockey East Rookie of the Week made 33 saves to record his 13th win.

“He’s been great and his mental attitude has been outstanding whether the momentum is on their side or our side,” said Brown. “When they made a real push Louka was excellent for us.”

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The Terriers peppered the BC cage from the opening faceoff with four quality shots, but it was the Eagles that netted the opener at3:28 of the first.

Freshman right wing Oscar Hemming crashed the BU zone and his wrister from the left circle was blocked by BU defenseman Charlie Trethewey. Senior center Andre Gasseau collected the rebound in the slot and flicked a wobbler past Terriers’ goalie Mikhail Yegorov for his fourth of the season. BC hasn’t won the Beanpot since 2016 and Gasseau enters his final tournament with a senior’s sense of urgency and a scorer’s sense of confidence.

“We’ve gone through with a different group every year and obviously this is my last year and I want to win it,” said Gasseau. “You take pride in winning those games and winning those tournaments and we are going to win it this year. I have no doubt.”

BC appeared to go up 2-0 on the power play with 49 seconds on the clock. Pandolfo issued a coach’s challenge on the grounds that the Eagles were offside and the goal was disallowed. Cloutier stymied two BU power plays and several even strength challenges and exited the frame with 15 saves.

BC went up 2-0 on a brilliantly executed 2-on-1 by a pair of Boston Bruins first round draft picks. Center Dean Letourneau forced a neutral zone turnover and broke in down the left side with left wing James Hagens in pursuit on the opposite flank. Letourneau feigned a shot and fed Hagens, who beat Yegorov with a wrist shot top shelf on the glove side for his 12th of the season.

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“They are very good players and they practice hard,” said Brown. “For years you work for those situations and to execute in those situations because you don’t get a ton of two-on-one’s in a college hockey game.

“The fact they got the opportunity and executed on it was huge and you see that in the NHL, that’s what those guys do.”

Letourneau put BC up 3-0 with his 14th of the season at 16:53 of the second. Bruins draft pick Will Moore collected a loose puck on the end boards and fed Letourneau, who was left unattended in the low slot. Letourneau made a quick flick of the wrist and beat Yegorov to the near post on the stick side. BU exited the middle frame with a 23-13 advantage in shots on goal.

BU averted the shutout on the power play at 37 seconds into the third period. Junior Jack Harvey flipped a wobbler that rolled over Cloutier’s shoulder and into the goal for his ninth of the season.



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How I met a lifelong friend when I moved to Boston for a new job – The Boston Globe

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How I met a lifelong friend when I moved to Boston for a new job – The Boston Globe


Opportunity drew me to Boston in 1977. I took a job at an architectural firm in the North End and moved to an apartment in Inman Square in Cambridge. It was such a great place to live — Legal Sea Foods, Ryles, the Inn-Square Men’s Bar, and the S&S Deli were all within a block of my front door. But there was one big problem: I didn’t know a soul in the area and really wanted to make friends outside of work.

Could spending some time at local watering holes be the answer? I decided to take my chances.

One evening I was perched on a barstool at the newly opened Springfield Street Saloon across the street. It was pretty much empty except for another guy sitting several stools away staring at the TV. Both of us were groaning in pain at some pathetic play by the Red Sox and started to chat from a distance. I slid over and introduced myself — or it could have been the other way around, I don’t remember. But most importantly, I met Jeff.

The next night we were both there again. And the next. We became good friends over the course of the summer and best friends not long after that. Jeff was the avid sportsman that I could never become. He took me tuna fishing off Gloucester, and to a sportsman’s club for lessons in marksmanship.

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He was a classic extrovert and optimist who was working as a fledgling music promoter. I was a classic introvert hopelessly tied to a desk, quietly sketching designs. But somehow our sense of humor, outlook on life, and respect for each other cemented our friendship. I never expected to meet someone in such a random way and become such close friends. I joined him at Sox games, Pats games — we even went to the Police and J. Geils concerts at the Garden with backstage passes.

The Blizzard of 1978 didn’t put a damper on the fun at Jeff’s apartment. The weeklong Blizzard Party at his place could not be rivaled. He called me one night at 4 a.m., asking if I had any aspirin because Sting, lead singer of the Police, was at his apartment with a headache!

Jeff even found me a new apartment in his building near Harvard Square. He never wanted anything in return, just my company. And I was always there for him.

Over the years, our lives changed quite a bit. We both moved to different towns with our fiancées. Jeff came to my wedding, and after my daughters were born, he became a favorite of theirs as they grew up. He joked with my wife that she could have done much better than me.

From that chance barstool meeting, I talked with my best friend almost every day for over 40 years. Whenever our wives heard us howling on the phone, they knew immediately who was on the line.

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A few years ago, Jeff fell ill, and was in the hospital. I sensed this was quite serious and went to visit him against his wishes. He didn’t want me to see him in his declining condition. “Do you remember when . . . ?” was the topic that day. I had to tone down my usual rants, because it hurt him so much when he laughed.

Later, I said goodbye and left the room. As I turned down the corridor, I heard Jeff call out, “I love you, man.” I was going to turn around and go back into the room but didn’t want him to see me crying. That seemed pretty dumb then, and still does. A few weeks later, I got a call from his wife, Joanne, telling me he had passed away.

Five years later, Jeff is still on my speed dial, and I cannot tell you the number of times I have almost called him for his take on the day’s events. Because you just never know.


Mark Bernstein is a writer in Newton Centre. Send comments to magazine@globe.com.

TELL YOUR STORY. Email your 650-word unpublished essay on a relationship to connections@globe.com. Please note: We do not respond to submissions we won’t pursue, and we do not accept essays written with the help of artificial intelligence.

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