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Here’s why the Massachusetts snow forecast changed

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Here’s why the Massachusetts snow forecast changed


BOSTON – From the beginning, the meteorologists at WBZ-TV in Boston had a bad feeling about the snow storm heading to Massachusetts Tuesday. The snowfall predictions took a major turn downwards from Sunday to Monday and many people want to know why.

Snow predictions early discussions

Here’s an example of what we were talking about behind the scenes over the weekend while trying to develop an accurate forecast of snowfall totals.

Saturday 1:21 p.m.

Text from Eric Fisher to me: “I dunno, just feels like a weird headfake storm to me”

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Sunday 4:05 p.m.

Text from Eric Fisher to me: “Still feeling kind of leery of a late shift south”

Monday 12:47 a.m. on WBZ-TV News after the Super Bowl

Eric talking to David Wade and Lisa Hughes: “I’m a little worried it’s going to slip farther south; we will watch the trends tomorrow”

Granted some of these conversations were private, but we did try to caution our viewers about the uncertainty with this particular storm. Trust me, I know, in the end, many folks aren’t hanging on every word that is said on TV and most are just waiting for the snow forecast map.

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Winter storms are like snowflakes, no two are exactly alike. This is a big part of what makes forecasting in New England so intriguing. You can literally do this job your entire life (see Barry Burbank, well over 40 years), and still have sleepless nights wondering if the atmosphere will behave as you predicted.

Contrary to popular belief, meteorologists don’t just go outside and stick their fingers in the air to determine the forecast. We rely on very complex weather models. These models are run on giant supercomputers capable of churning out quadrillions of calculations per second. Seriously! That’s 15 zeros!

Despite this insane amount of technology, in the end, the weather is still somewhat unpredictable. There are just too many moving parts. We are light years better at forecasting now than we were 10, 20, 30 years ago, but still far from perfect. We would love to be able to accurately predict how much snow your town is going to get four days in advance but that just isn’t possible. This is, after all, still a FORECAST. Things will change. Sometimes dramatically so.

What happened to the snow forecast in Boston

Over the weekend, you likely started seeing snowfall forecast maps popping up here, there and everywhere. By Sunday, most of the model guidance seemed to be converging on a storm track that would produce a widespread 6-to-12″ of snow across southern New England. However, with this storm, there was a very fine line between getting a whole bunch of snow and getting nothing. We knew that there would be some very intense snow bands that would produce 1-to-3″ per hour. If your town ended up underneath this banding, you were in for an intense 3-6 hours of snow. Just a few miles to the north, flurries.

Minor shift, major change in snow predictions

By Sunday night, and more so Monday morning, there was a minor shift in the model output. It appeared that the center of the storm may pass about 50 miles farther south that what was originally forecast. For a storm system several hundred miles across, 50 miles isn’t much. BUT, if those 50 miles just happen to be right over Massachusetts a minor shift becomes a MAJOR story. Shifting the highest snowfall totals (8-12″) 50 miles southward had a major impact of hundreds of thousands of people. For reference…50 miles (as the crow flies) in Massachusetts is like going from Lawrence to Plymouth or Boston to Falmouth.

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So, much to the disappointment of some, and the delight of others, we made a significant change to our snowfall forecast Monday afternoon. Basically, everything was shifted about 25-50 miles south.

Unfortunately, many towns, schools and businesses had already chosen to make a decision to close on Tuesday, nearly 24 hours prior to the first flakes. I get it, you want to give folks as much notice as possible to find babysitters, change plans etc. Sure, occasionally you get a multi-day mega-blizzard, and the call is an easy one. Most of the time, however, making those calls a full day in advance is a dangerous proposition and NOT one that any meteorologist would recommend.

Part of me longs for the old days, when we would all wake up at 5 a.m. and flip on WBZ NewsRadio 1030 to hear whether school was canceled or not. Strange that back then, when communication was much more rudimentary, we waited until the last minute to make those decisions. Whereas now, when we can get the word out in seconds via text, robocall, social media etc, we make the calls way sooner.

At the end of nearly every blog I write, I urge everyone to stay tuned to updated forecasts. That isn’t just a throwaway line, we really mean it!

The atmosphere is a crazy place. A thunderstorm unexpectedly forming in Texas on Monday could start a chain reaction that leads to massive changes to Boston’s weather a few days later.

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We know and respect that you all have busy lives with kids to care for and businesses to run. Our goal is to provide you with the most accurate information possible and, just as important, keeping you updated when changes occur.



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Boston, MA

Red Sox rally late with five unanswered runs to stun Yankees 9-7

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Red Sox rally late with five unanswered runs to stun Yankees 9-7


It seemed like deja vu all over again.

For the sixth time in seven games to start the second half, the Red Sox bullpen blew a lead in the seventh inning or later. This time the collapse was particularly noisy, as Zack Kelly allowed back-to-back home runs — including a 470-foot three-run moonshot by Aaron Judge — to turn a one-run lead into a three-run deficit in the bottom of the seventh.

It could have been the latest in a string of ugly losses, but instead the Red Sox flipped the script on the Yankees and pulled out perhaps the defining win of their season so far.

After falling behind late the Red Sox rallied for five unanswered runs over the last three innings to stun the Yankees 9-7 in Friday’s series opener. Wilyer Abreu tied the game with a pinch-hit RBI double in the bottom of the eighth, and Masataka Yoshida came through with the go-ahead two-run single to put Boston ahead for good.

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“It’s big, these guys never give up,” said closer Kenley Jansen, who pitched a scoreless ninth to lock up the win and earn his 20th save of the season. “They keep fighting, putting good at-bats, and that’s what we need.”

Manager Alex Cora described the win as one of the crazier games he can recall against the Yankees in a while, noting that the sellout Fenway Park crowd had a special kind of buzz.

“It felt like the back and forth the last three innings, it was what it used to be here. That’s the way it should be,” Cora said. “That’s the reason we’re here, that’s one of the reasons we decided to stay here, because we love this. Sometimes I get chills because looking around at what’s going on.

“There’s a big difference between what’s going on here right now compared to early in the season, early in the season, with all due respect, it felt like a museum, the Fenway Experience,” he continued. “But now they’re into it, they like the team, they understand who we are and what we’re trying to accomplish.”

Before the late-inning theatrics, things started off encouragingly enough for the Red Sox, who overcame their struggles against left-handed starting pitchers by making Yankees lefty Nestor Cortes’ evening a nightmare. Right from the beginning the Red Sox put pressure on Cortes, who allowed four runs and 13 total baserunners over his 4.2 innings of work.

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Boston loaded the bases in the first and took an early 1-0 lead on a Tyler O’Neill sacrifice fly, scored again on a Rafael Devers RBI single in the third, got an RBI double from lefty-killer Rob Refsnyder in the fourth and finally another sacrifice fly from Masataka Yoshida in the fifth.

Despite all that traffic, the Red Sox also let a lot of golden opportunities slip by the wayside. They collectively went 2 for 8 with runners in scoring position and stranded eight men on base through the first five innings, including men at second and third in the bottom of the fifth when reliever Tyler Kahnle struck out Jamie Westbrook to clean up Cortes’ last mess.

Meanwhile, Brayan Bello continued struggling with his command.

Usually dominant against the Yankees, Bello’s pitch count ballooned early and he allowed New York to come from behind and tie the score twice. He allowed a solo home run to Anthony Volpe in the second that knotted the game at 1-1, and in the fifth he allowed three straight hits to start the inning, including an RBI double by Trent Grisham, before serving up a game-tying sacrifice fly to Alex Verdugo.

Bello ultimately went five innings and allowed three runs on five hits and two walks while striking out four. He threw 80 pitches, only 47 for strikes.

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Still, the last run against Cortes in the bottom of the fifth put the Red Sox back ahead 4-3, and for a little while it looked like that might be enough.

The Red Sox denied New York a tantalizing scoring opportunity in the sixth when shortstop Ceddanne Rafaela made an incredible throw home on an infield grounder to gun down Austin Wells at the plate. That helped Cam Booser and Josh Winckowski combine for a scoreless inning, but in the bottom of the sixth the Red Sox stranded two more runners, and then all hell broke loose in the top of the seventh.

Brennan Bernardino came on to start and allowed a single, drew a lineout and then walked Juan Soto to put two on with Judge coming to the plate. Alex Cora then summoned the right-hander Kelly to face Judge, who sent the first pitch he saw into the stratosphere for the go-ahead three-run bomb.

Austin Wells added insult to injury moments later with his solo shot to right, which sent O’Neill tumbling over the short wall in right field trying to make the catch. O’Neill was OK, but the damage was done as the Red Sox suddenly found themselves looking up at a 7-4 deficit.

From there, the comeback was on.

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Boston answered New York’s haymaker with a big shot of its own in the bottom of the seventh, when Rafaela clobbered a Luke Weaver fastball over the Green Monster for a two-run shot. Then after Bailey Horn kept the Yankees off the board with a scoreless eighth, Rob Refsnyder singled and Connor Wong drew a 10-pitch walk to put two men on with nobody out in the bottom of the frame, bringing Devers to the plate.

Weaver was able to stave off the big hit by getting Devers to fly out to left, but then Yankees manager Aaron Boone summoned his closer Clay Holmes, and the embattled All-Star couldn’t get the job done. Cora pinch hit O’Neill for the rookie Abreu, who delivered with the tying hit, and then Yoshida followed with another big hit to help pull out the win.

“For Alex to give me the opportunity in that moment, it means a lot to me,” Abreu said via translator Carlos Villoria Benítez. “Even more when I was able to come through for the team.”

“Being able to win in a game like this, that’s why I came here,” Yoshida said via translator Yutaro Yamaguchi.

With the win Boston improves to 55-47 and now trails the Yankees (60-45) by just 3.5 games in the AL East standings. The two rivals will face off again on Saturday, with first pitch scheduled for 7:15 p.m.

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Boston, MA

Office to residential conversions gain traction in Boston – Marketplace

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Office to residential conversions gain traction in Boston – Marketplace


When Los Angeles-based CIM Group bought a six-story office building in Boston, the plan was to renovate, according to Rich Kershaw, vice president of development at the firm.

“We were going to upgrade the elevators, upgrade the bathrooms, redo the lobbies and the facade and hopefully increase the rent,” Kershaw said.

This building was an industrial warehouse before becoming office space. It’s a stately, old structure — almost the antithesis of the glass towers going up in other parts of the city. That’s because demand for the most modern work spaces in Boston is as healthy as ever.

One in 5 office spaces in the United States are empty. According to Moody’s, that’s the highest vacancy rate in history.

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Now some developers in major cities want to turn that unused office space into housing. But it could take big subsidies to make it happen. That’s why Boston is offering building owners a 75% property tax break for the retrofits.

Standing in the empty building, next to huge glass panes overlooking the city’s South End district, Kershaw said they did do the upgrades. But then the pandemic hit. Working from home became the norm for many urban workers — and he could lease out only one of six floors.

“I don’t see the office being a viable use for the near future,” he said. “So I think the residential is perfect.”

This office building is one of 13 in Boston whose owners are exploring “resi conversions.” The city says this can do two things: ward off the threat of office vacancies while adding apartments in one of the country’s most expensive housing markets.

Helping lead the effort to explore resi conversions across Massachusetts is Tim Love, founder of Utile Architecture and Planning in Boston.

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“Your downtown will be more successful if you’ve got more people living over the commercial space on the ground floors,” he said. “That is going to make your downtown more lively and less a place that goes completely quiet after 5 o’clock.”

This also helps preserve old buildings, but only a slice of them are viable for converting. One study suggests that 15% of office buildings in the country’s largest cities are physically suitable.

Among the other challenges for developers are high interest rates, the cost of labor and materials and the need to overhaul mechanical systems. Not to mention that housing often commands lower rents than office space.

That’s why the state is offering owners up to $4 million for resi conversions. Developer Rich Kershaw said these subsidies are key.

“It’s gotten us all here to talk about this and starting looking at it seriously,” he said.

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Developers also face Boston’s affordability requirement: 20% of new housing must be set aside for people with lower incomes.

Other cities are moving ahead on similar projects. Chicago is in the middle of a massive conversion involving 10 city blocks. The city was able to set aside more than $150 million in subsidies to convert four commercial buildings into apartments: 3 of every 10 units will be considered affordable.

And New York City is looking to rezone to make it easier to do conversions in more neighborhoods.

Valerie Campbell is a land use attorney in New York. “Our clients have a lot of interest — particularly if these current zoning initiatives become effective, we’re going to see a lot more office conversions,” she said.

Campbell added that most New York resi conversions have happened in pre-World War II buildings. But now developers are considering newer structures that are more difficult to convert, with huge floor plates and windows that don’t open.

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In Boston, conversions aren’t likely to fix the commercial real estate market or solve the city’s housing crisis. The city says it needs 69,000 new units in the coming years.

But conversion proponents say doing even one building can make a big difference, starting on its own block.

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Boston Red Sox All-Star MVP on Pace to Do Something Not Done For Last 99 Years of History

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Boston Red Sox All-Star MVP on Pace to Do Something Not Done For Last 99 Years of History


The Boston Red Sox enter play on Friday at 54-47 and in contention for a wild card spot in the American League. The Red Sox haven’t been to the playoffs since 2021 and are ahead of where most prognosticators thought they would be at this point in the season.

One of the driving forces behind the success this year is star outfielder Jarren Duran. Duran, who won All-Star Game MVP, has been the catalyst of the lineup this year, even as Triston Casas and Trevor Story have been hurt.

According to Sarah Langs of MLB.com, Duran is on pace to accomplish something that hasn’t been done in baseball since 1925.

Jarren Duran is on pace for: 48 2B, 19 3B, 21 HR, 35 SB

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players with 40/15/15/30 since modern SB rules began in 1898:

1925 Kiki Cuyler: 43 2B, 26 3B, 18 HR, 41 SB
1920 George Sisler: 49 2B, 18 3B, 19 HR, 42 SB

Any time you can do something that hasn’t been done in 99 years, you are doing something right and Duran certainly is. In addition to being All-Star Game MVP, Duran is hitting a cool. 292 with 13 homers, 51 RBI and 22 stolen bases. He’s posted an OPS of .865 and is in line to get some MVP votes at season’s end.

The Red Sox open a critical divisional series with the New York Yankees on Friday night at Fenway Park. First pitch is set for 7:10 p.m. ET as Nestor Cortes (NYY) pitches against Brayan Bello (SOX).

Continue to follow our Fastball on FanNation coverage on social media by liking us on Facebook and by following us on Twitter @FastballFN.





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