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Why Pennsylvania could be the key to the White House
Houses across the Monongahela River are seen from Braddock, Pa., on Oct. 16, 2024.
Nate Smallwood for NPR
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Nate Smallwood for NPR
The race for Pennsylvania is in full swing.
Commercial breaks across the state are packed with attack ads. Some claim Vice President Harris made inflation worse while others highlight former President Donald Trump’s role in restricting abortion access for millions of Americans.
With just over two weeks until Election Day, the amount and frequency of ads shouldn’t come as a shock. Daniel Hopkins, a political science professor at the University of Pennsylvania, said bombarding state residents with TV ads is politically strategic.
“Candidates are better off when they can persuade voters, because if they persuade a voter, they not only add one to their tally, but they take one out of their opponents tally,” Hopkins said. “Whereas if I just turn out a voter, then I’ve added one to my tally, but I haven’t done anything to my opponent’s tally.”
But voters across the state are bearing the brunt of the political grind, as both campaigns have spent more money on ads in Pennsylvania than any other battleground state. Harris and Trump need the state because it holds 19 electoral votes – the largest share available among the seven closely watched battleground states.
Why is Pennsylvania getting so much attention?
Polls show Harris and Trump are locked in a tight race here. Several Pennsylvania political observers NPR spoke to as part of our We, The Voters series say the state is a toss up, which is why the candidates are fiercely fighting to win votes here.
A sign supporting former president Donald Trump is seen in Ronks, PA, on Friday Oct. 18, 2024.
Hannah Yoon for NPR
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Hannah Yoon for NPR
Both candidates and their running mates have spent increasingly more time here over the past few weeks.
Harris sat for a testy interview with Fox News anchor Bret Baier in Philadelphia last week, as she attempted to present herself as an alternate choice for Republicans who are unhappy with Trump. And earlier this month, Trump returned to Butler, where he survived an assassination attempt this summer, and honed in on immigration and border control.
Since President Biden dropped out of the presidential race and endorsed Harris in late July, Democrats have spent about $159 million on advertising in Pennsylvania compared Republicans who have spent around $121 million, according to a recent AdImpact report.
Pennsylvanians have voted for the winner of every presidential election since former President Barack Obama won in 2008. And in the prior four presidential elections, Pennsylvania voted reliably blue.
But the state swung red in 2016 when Trump won it by roughly 45,000 votes. In 2020, the Keystone State state flipped again. Biden won it by about 80,000 votes, according to Pennsylvania voting results data. Although Biden’s win was larger than Trump’s, it was not an overwhelming victory. In a state that then had more than 9 million registered voters, his win amounted to one percentage point.
So what’s on the minds of voters this year?
A September poll of 800 likely Pennsylvania voters found that people here care most about the economy, followed by abortion.
Retired Navy veteran Ed Grkman, whom NPR met in West Mifflin, a borough located southeast of Pittsburgh, said he favors Trump to handle the economy. An American flag waved from a pole in his front lawn, as he cut his grass and stopped to speak. Grkman lives off of a fixed Social Security income and said prices have gotten higher over the past four years.
“I’m doing worse than I was when Donald Trump was in office,” Grkman said. “So, anybody voting should be voting for the price to be lower.”
Jessica Krayer poses for a portrait in Pittsburgh, Pa., on Oct. 15, 2024.
Nate Smallwood for NPR
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Nate Smallwood for NPR
Meanwhile, abortion access — Harris’ strongest issue — is top of mind for nearly half of Pennsylvania voters, including many independents.
Jessica Krayer, a lactation consultant at West Penn Hospital in Pittsburgh, said supporting Harris and Democrats would help preserve abortion access in the state.
Krayer, a nurse with 19 years of experience in women’s health, has helped deliver babies and handled more difficult pregnancies, including some that threatened the help of patients. After the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, she also welcomed and treated patients from neighboring states with restrictive abortion laws.
“No matter what, that decision [to get an abortion] is never taken lightly,” Krayer said. “It is not my job to judge anyone for that situation. If I was in a situation where I couldn’t afford to feed another kid, I don’t know what I would do.”
Here’s what Trump and Harris need to win the state
Trump is a household name at this point. And his populist message continues to resonate with white Pennsylvania voters without college degrees, aging voters and blue collar workers, including many who worked in the state’s declining steel, coal and manufacturing industries.
Those residents make up about half of the state’s eligible voter base.
“Donald Trump will do particularly well here in Pennsylvania to the extent that the Trump campaign is able to turn out irregular voters who lean toward the president,” Hopkins said.
Harris will need to maintain gains that Biden made in many of the suburbs around Pittsburgh and Philadelphia, Hopkins added. Biden won in 2020 in large part from turnout in the most populous cities in the state — Philadelphia, Pittsburgh and Allentown — voted in his favor. He also benefited from losing by fewer votes in the state’s more conservative small towns and suburban areas.
A Harris Walz sign in Lancaster, Pa., on Friday Oct. 18, 2024.
Hannah Yoon for NPR
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Hannah Yoon for NPR
Harris will also need to rely on the sizable share of Black voters and smaller number of Latino voters in places like Philadelphia, Hopkins said.
Black people make up nearly 40% of the population in Philadelphia, according to the United States Census Bureau. Latinos make up about 16%.
Joe Hill, a board member of Black Leadership Pennsylvania, a political action committee working to educate Black residents across the state about voting, said Harris has strong appeal in the state’s big cities thanks to her identity as a Black and South Asian woman.
“Her ability as a woman to rise up the ranks on her own merits is motivating a lot of women in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh,” Hill said.
The same is true for some Latino voters in the state, like Guillermo Lopez of Allentown, Pa., where Latinos make up more than half the population.
Pinned to his sweater, when NPR met him for an interview, were two big blue buttons that read “Vote for Harris.”
“I already filled in my ballot and mailed it in,” Lopez said. “If I keep talking, I’ll get weepy because I never imagined in my life that I would be voting for someone that looks like my daughter.”
Destinee Adams reported from Allentown. Obed Manuel reported from Pittsburgh.
This story was edited by Majd Al-Waheidi.
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Brass bands in Beijing make way for sticker shock at home as Trump returns to escalating inflation
WASHINGTON (AP) — President Donald Trump returned from the spectacle of a Chinese state visit to a less than welcoming U.S. economy — with the military band and garden tour in Beijing giving way to pressure over how to fix America’s escalating inflation rate.
Consumer inflation in the United States increased to 3.8% annually in April, higher than what he inherited as the Iran war and the Republican president’s own tariffs have pushed up prices. Inflation is now outpacing wage gains and effectively making workers poorer. The Cleveland Federal Reserve estimates that annual inflation could reach 4.2% in May as the war has kept oil and gasoline prices high.
Trump’s time with Chinese leader Xi Jinping appears unlikely to help the U.S. economy much, despite Trump’s claims of coming trade deals. The trip occurred as many people are voting in primaries leading into the November general election while having to absorb the rising costs of gasoline, groceries, utility bills, jewelry, women’s clothing, airplane tickets and delivery services. Democrats see the moment as a political opportunity.
“He’s returning to a dumpster fire,” said Lindsay Owens, executive director of Groundwork Collaborative, a liberal think tank focused on economic issues. “The president will not have the faith and confidence of the American people — the economy is their top issue and the president is saying, ‘You’re on your own.’”
The president’s trip to Beijing and his recent comments that indicated a tone-deafness to voters’ concerns about rising prices have suggested his focus is not on the American public and have undermined Republicans who had intended to campaign on last year’s tax cuts as helping families.
Trump described the trip as a victory, saying on social media that Xi “congratulated me on so many tremendous successes,” as the U.S. president has praised their relationship.
Trump told reporters that Boeing would be selling 200 aircraft — and maybe even 750 “if they do a good job” — to the Chinese. He said American farmers would be “very happy” because China would be “buying billions of dollars of soybeans.”
“We had an amazing time,” Trump said as he flew home on Air Force One, and told Fox News’ Bret Baier in an interview that gasoline prices were just some “short-term pain” and would “drop like a rock” once the war ends.
Inflationary pain is not a factor in how Trump handles Iran
Trump departed from the White House for China by saying the negotiations over the Iran war depended on stopping Tehran from developing nuclear weapons. “I don’t think about Americans’ financial situation. I don’t think about anybody. I think about one thing: We cannot let Iran have a nuclear weapon,” Trump said.
That remark prompted blowback because it suggested to some that Trump cared more about challenging Iran than fighting inflation at home. Trump defended his words, telling Fox News: “That’s a perfect statement. I’d make it again.”
The White House has since stressed that Trump is focused on inflation.
Asked later about the president’s words, Vice President JD Vance said there had been a “misrepresentation” of the remarks. White House spokesman Kush Desai said the “administration remains laser-focused on delivering growth and affordability on the homefront” while indicating actions would be taken on grocery prices.
But as Trump appeared alongside Xi, new reports back home showed inflation rising for businesses and interest rates climbing on U.S. government debt.
His comments that Boeing would sell 200 jets to China caused the company’s stock price to fall because investors had expected a larger number. There was little concrete information offered about any trade agreements reached during the summit, including Chinese purchases of U.S. exports such as liquefied natural gas and beef.
“Foreign policy wins can matter politically, but only if voters feel stability and affordability in their daily lives,” said Brittany Martinez, a former Republican congressional aide who is the executive director of Principles First, a center-right advocacy group focused on democracy issues.
“Midterms are almost always a referendum on cost of living and public frustration, and Republicans are not immune from the same inflation and affordability pressures that hurt Democrats in recent cycles,” she added.
Democrats see Trump as vulnerable
Democratic lawmakers are seizing on Trump’s comments before his trip as proof of his indifference to lowering costs. There is potential staying power of his remarks as Americans head into Memorial Day weekend facing rising prices for the hamburgers and hot dogs to be grilled.
“What Americans do not see is any sympathy, any support, or any plan from Trump and congressional Republicans to lower costs – in fact, they see the opposite,” Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer of New York said Thursday.
Vance faulted the Biden administration for the inflation problem even though the inflation rate is now higher than it was when Trump returned to the White House in January 2025 with a specific mandate to fix it.
“The inflation number last month was not great,” Vance said Wednesday, but he then stressed, “We’re not seeing anything like what we saw under the Biden administration.”
Inflation peaked at 9.1% in June 2022 under Biden, a Democrat. By the time Trump took the oath of office, it was a far more modest 3%.
Trump’s inflation challenge could get harder
The data tells a different story as higher inflation is spreading into the cost of servicing the national debt.
Over the past week, the interest rate charged on 10-year U.S. government debt jumped from 4.36% to 4.6%, an increase that implies higher costs for auto loans and mortgages.
“My fear is that the layers of supply shocks that are affecting the U.S. economy will only further feed into inflationary pressures,” said Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY-Parthenon.
Daco noted that last year’s tariff increases were now translating into higher clothing prices. With the Supreme Court ruling against Trump’s ability to impose tariffs by declaring an economic emergency, his administration is preparing a new set of import taxes for this summer.
Daco stressed that there have been a series of supply shocks. First, tariffs cut into the supply of imports. In addition, Trump’s immigration crackdown cut into the supply of foreign-born workers. Now, the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has cut off the vital waterway used to ship 20% of global oil supplies.
“We’re seeing an erosion of growth,” Daco said.
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Top Drug Regulator Is Fired From the F.D.A.
Dr. Tracy Beth Hoeg, the Food and Drug Administration’s top drug regulator, said she was fired from the agency Friday after she declined to resign.
She said she did not know who had ordered her firing or why, nor whether Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. knew of her fate. The Department of Health and Human Services did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
The departure reflected the upheaval at the F.D.A., days after the resignation of Dr. Marty Makary, the agency commissioner. Dr. Makary had become a lightning rod for critics of the agency’s decisions to reject applications for rare disease drugs and to delay a report meant to supply damaging evidence about the abortion drug mifepristone. He also spent months before his departure pushing back on the White House’s requests for him to approve more flavored vapes, the reason he ultimately cited for leaving.
Dr. Hoeg’s hiring had startled public health leaders who were familiar with her track record as a vaccine skeptic, and she played a leading role in some of the agency’s most divisive efforts during her tenure. She worked on a report that purportedly linked the deaths of children and young adults to Covid vaccines, a dossier the agency has not released publicly. She was also the co-author of a document describing Mr. Kennedy’s decision to pare the recommendations for 17 childhood vaccines down to 11.
But in an interview on Friday, Dr. Hoeg said she “stuck with the science.”
“I am incredibly proud of the work we were doing,” Dr. Hoeg said, adding, “I’m glad that we didn’t give in to any pressures to approve drugs when it wasn’t appropriate.”
As the director of the agency’s Center for Drug Evaluation and Research, she was a political appointee in a role that had been previously occupied by career officials. An epidemiologist who was trained in the United States and Denmark, she worked on efforts to analyze drug safety and on a panel to discuss the use of serotonin reuptake inhibitors, the most widely prescribed class of antidepressants, during pregnancy. She also worked on efforts to reduce animal testing and was the agency’s liaison to an influential vaccine committee.
She made sure that her teams approved drugs only when the risk-benefit balance was favorable, she said.
The firing worsens the leadership vacuum at the F.D.A. and other agencies, with temporary leaders filling the role of commissioner, food chief and the head of the biologics center, which oversees vaccines and gene therapies. The roles of surgeon general and director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention are also unfilled.
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Supreme Court is death knell for Virginia’s Democratic-friendly congressional maps
The U.S. Supreme Court
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The U.S. Supreme Court refused Friday to allow Virginia to use a new congressional map that favored Democrats in all but one of the state’s U.S. House seats. The map was a key part of Democrats’ effort to counter the Republican redistricting wave set off by President Trump.
The new map was drawn by Democrats and approved by Virginia voters in an April referendum. But on May 8, the Supreme Court of Virginia in a 4-to-3 vote declared the referendum, and by extension the new map, null and void because lawmakers failed to follow the proper procedures to get the issue on the ballot, violating the state constitution.
Virginia Democrats and the state’s attorney general then appealed to the U.S. Supreme Court, seeking to put into effect the map approved by the voters, which yields four more likely Democratic congressional seats. In their emergency application, they argued the Virginia Supreme Court was “deeply mistaken” in its decision on “critical issues of federal law with profound practical importance to the Nation.” Further, they asserted the decision “overrode the will of the people” by ordering Virginia to “conduct its election with the congressional districts that the people rejected.”
Republican legislators countered that it would be improper for the U.S. Supreme Court to wade into a purely state law controversy — especially since the Democrats had not raised any federal claims in the lower court.
Ultimately, the U.S. Supreme Court sided with Republicans without explanation leaving in place the state court ruling that voided the Democratic-friendly maps.
The court’s decision not to intervene was its latest in emergency requests for intervention on redistricting issues. In December, the high court OK’d Texas using a gerrymandered map that could help the GOP win five more seats in the U.S. House. In February, the court allowed California to use a voter-approved, Democratic-friendly map, adopted to offset Texas’s map. Then in March, the U.S. Supreme Court blocked the redrawing of a New York map expected to flip a Republican congressional district Democratic.
And perhaps most importantly, in April, the high court ruled that a Louisiana congressional map was a racial gerrymander and must be redrawn. That decision immediately set off a flurry of redistricting efforts, particularly in the South, where Republican legislators immediately began redrawing congressional maps to eliminate long established majority Black and Hispanic districts.
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