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Why Pennsylvania could be the key to the White House

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Why Pennsylvania could be the key to the White House

Houses across the Monongahela River are seen from Braddock, Pa., on Oct. 16, 2024.

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The race for Pennsylvania is in full swing.

Commercial breaks across the state are packed with attack ads. Some claim Vice President Harris made inflation worse while others highlight former President Donald Trump’s role in restricting abortion access for millions of Americans.

With just over two weeks until Election Day, the amount and frequency of ads shouldn’t come as a shock. Daniel Hopkins, a political science professor at the University of Pennsylvania, said bombarding state residents with TV ads is politically strategic.

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“Candidates are better off when they can persuade voters, because if they persuade a voter, they not only add one to their tally, but they take one out of their opponents tally,” Hopkins said. “Whereas if I just turn out a voter, then I’ve added one to my tally, but I haven’t done anything to my opponent’s tally.”

But voters across the state are bearing the brunt of the political grind, as both campaigns have spent more money on ads in Pennsylvania than any other battleground state. Harris and Trump need the state because it holds 19 electoral votes – the largest share available among the seven closely watched battleground states.

Why is Pennsylvania getting so much attention?

Polls show Harris and Trump are locked in a tight race here. Several Pennsylvania political observers NPR spoke to as part of our We, The Voters series say the state is a toss up, which is why the candidates are fiercely fighting to win votes here.

A sign supporting former president Donald Trump is seen in Ronks, Pa., on Friday Oct. 18 2024.

A sign supporting former president Donald Trump is seen in Ronks, PA, on Friday Oct. 18, 2024.

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Both candidates and their running mates have spent increasingly more time here over the past few weeks.

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Harris sat for a testy interview with Fox News anchor Bret Baier in Philadelphia last week, as she attempted to present herself as an alternate choice for Republicans who are unhappy with Trump. And earlier this month, Trump returned to Butler, where he survived an assassination attempt this summer, and honed in on immigration and border control.

Since President Biden dropped out of the presidential race and endorsed Harris in late July, Democrats have spent about $159 million on advertising in Pennsylvania compared Republicans who have spent around $121 million, according to a recent AdImpact report.

Pennsylvanians have voted for the winner of every presidential election since former President Barack Obama won in 2008. And in the prior four presidential elections, Pennsylvania voted reliably blue.

But the state swung red in 2016 when Trump won it by roughly 45,000 votes. In 2020, the Keystone State state flipped again. Biden won it by about 80,000 votes, according to Pennsylvania voting results data. Although Biden’s win was larger than Trump’s, it was not an overwhelming victory. In a state that then had more than 9 million registered voters, his win amounted to one percentage point.

So what’s on the minds of voters this year?

A September poll of 800 likely Pennsylvania voters found that people here care most about the economy, followed by abortion.

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Retired Navy veteran Ed Grkman, whom NPR met in West Mifflin, a borough located southeast of Pittsburgh, said he favors Trump to handle the economy. An American flag waved from a pole in his front lawn, as he cut his grass and stopped to speak. Grkman lives off of a fixed Social Security income and said prices have gotten higher over the past four years.

“I’m doing worse than I was when Donald Trump was in office,” Grkman said. “So, anybody voting should be voting for the price to be lower.”

Jessica Krayer poses for a portrait in Pittsburgh, Pa., on Oct. 15, 2024.

Jessica Krayer poses for a portrait in Pittsburgh, Pa., on Oct. 15, 2024.

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Meanwhile, abortion access — Harris’ strongest issue — is top of mind for nearly half of Pennsylvania voters, including many independents.

Jessica Krayer, a lactation consultant at West Penn Hospital in Pittsburgh, said supporting Harris and Democrats would help preserve abortion access in the state.

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Krayer, a nurse with 19 years of experience in women’s health, has helped deliver babies and handled more difficult pregnancies, including some that threatened the help of patients. After the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, she also welcomed and treated patients from neighboring states with restrictive abortion laws.

“No matter what, that decision [to get an abortion] is never taken lightly,” Krayer said. “It is not my job to judge anyone for that situation. If I was in a situation where I couldn’t afford to feed another kid, I don’t know what I would do.”

Here’s what Trump and Harris need to win the state

Trump is a household name at this point. And his populist message continues to resonate with white Pennsylvania voters without college degrees, aging voters and blue collar workers, including many who worked in the state’s declining steel, coal and manufacturing industries.

Those residents make up about half of the state’s eligible voter base.

“Donald Trump will do particularly well here in Pennsylvania to the extent that the Trump campaign is able to turn out irregular voters who lean toward the president,” Hopkins said.

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Harris will need to maintain gains that Biden made in many of the suburbs around Pittsburgh and Philadelphia, Hopkins added. Biden won in 2020 in large part from turnout in the most populous cities in the state — Philadelphia, Pittsburgh and Allentown — voted in his favor. He also benefited from losing by fewer votes in the state’s more conservative small towns and suburban areas.

A Harris Walz sign in Lancaster, PA, on Friday October 18 2024.

A Harris Walz sign in Lancaster, Pa., on Friday Oct. 18, 2024.

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Harris will also need to rely on the sizable share of Black voters and smaller number of Latino voters in places like Philadelphia, Hopkins said.

Black people make up nearly 40% of the population in Philadelphia, according to the United States Census Bureau. Latinos make up about 16%.

Joe Hill, a board member of Black Leadership Pennsylvania, a political action committee working to educate Black residents across the state about voting, said Harris has strong appeal in the state’s big cities thanks to her identity as a Black and South Asian woman.

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“Her ability as a woman to rise up the ranks on her own merits is motivating a lot of women in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh,” Hill said.

The same is true for some Latino voters in the state, like Guillermo Lopez of Allentown, Pa., where Latinos make up more than half the population.

Pinned to his sweater, when NPR met him for an interview, were two big blue buttons that read “Vote for Harris.”

“I already filled in my ballot and mailed it in,” Lopez said. “If I keep talking, I’ll get weepy because I never imagined in my life that I would be voting for someone that looks like my daughter.”

Destinee Adams reported from Allentown. Obed Manuel reported from Pittsburgh.

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This story was edited by Majd Al-Waheidi.

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Satellite images show Iran school strike hit more buildings than earlier reported

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Satellite images show Iran school strike hit more buildings than earlier reported

The bombing of an Iranian elementary school that killed some 165 people, many of them schoolgirls, included more targets near the school than has been initially reported, a review of commercial satellite imagery by NPR has found.

The images suggest that the school was hit on Saturday as part of a precision airstrike on a neighboring Iranian military complex — and that it may have been struck as a result of outdated targeting information.

The new images come from the company Planet and are of the city of Minab, located in southeastern Iran. They show that a health clinic and other buildings near the school were also struck. Three independent experts confirmed NPR’s analysis of the additional strike points.

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The strike points “look like pretty clean detonation centroids,” said Corey Scher, a postdoctoral researcher at the Conflict Ecology laboratory at Oregon State University.

“These certainly appear like detonation sites,” agreed Scher’s colleague, Oregon State associate professor Jamon Van Den Hoek.

Jeffrey Lewis, a professor at Middlebury College who specializes in satellite imagery, said the imagery was consistent with a precision airstrike.

The images show “very precise targeting,” Lewis told NPR. “Almost all the buildings [in the compound] are hit.”

A satellite image of an Iranian Revolutionary Guard compound taken on March 4.

A satellite image of an Iranian Revolutionary Guard compound taken on March 4, several days after an airstrike destroyed a school on the edge of the compound. The image reveals that half a dozen other buildings in addition to the school were struck.

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Iranian state media said 165 people died in the bombing, which struck a girls’ school. The school was located within less than 100 yards of the perimeter of an Iranian Revolutionary Guard naval base, according to satellite images and publicly available information. The clinic was also located within the base perimeter, although both facilities had been walled off from the base.

Israel has denied involvement. “We are not aware at the moment of any IDF operation in that area,” Israel Defense Forces spokesperson Nadav Shoshani told NPR on Monday. “I don’t know who’s responsible for the bombing.”

At a press conference Wednesday morning, U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said that the U.S. is looking into what happened at the school. “All I know, all I can say, is that we’re investigating that,” Hegseth said. “We, of course, never target civilian targets.”

Given Minab’s location in the southeastern part of Iran, Lewis believes it’s more likely the U.S. would have conducted the strike than Israel. As one gets farther south and east in Iran, “a strike is much more likely to be a U.S. strike than an Israeli strike because of the type of munitions and the geographic location,” he said.

Esmail Baghaei, the spokesman for Iran’s Foreign Ministry, called the strike “deliberate” and said that the U.S. and Israel bombed the school in part to tie up Iranian forces in the region with rescue efforts. “To call the attack on the girls school merely a ‘war crime’ does not capture the sheer evil and depravity of such a crime,” he said.

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But Lewis said it’s more likely that the strike was the result of an error. Satellite images show that the school and clinic buildings were both once part of the base. The school was separated from the base by a wall between 2013 and 2016. The clinic was walled off between 2022 and 2024.

Lewis believes it’s possible American military planners had not updated their target sets.

“There are thousands of targets across Iran, and so there will be teams in the United States and Israel that are responsible for tracking those targets and updating them,” he said. “It’s possible that the target didn’t get updated.”

The Pentagon did not immediately respond to NPR’s request for additional information about the strike.

NPR’s Arezou Rezvani and NPR’s RAD team contributed to this report.

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Mojtaba Khamenei, son of former supreme leader, tipped to become Iran’s next head of state

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Mojtaba Khamenei, son of former supreme leader, tipped to become Iran’s next head of state

Mojtaba Khamenei, the second son of the assassinated Ali Khamenei, is being heavily tipped to succeed his father as supreme leader of Iran, which would pitch a hardliner into the task of steering the Islamic republic through the most turbulent period in its 48-year history and offer a powerful signal that, for now, it has no intention of changing course.

No official confirmation has been given and the announcement may be delayed until after the funeral of Ali Khamenei, which was on Wednesday postponed.

His son is believed to have been the choice of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), and the Israeli defence minister, Gideon Saar, has warned he will be assassinated.

Ayatollah Seyed Khatani, a member of the Assembly of Experts, the body that chooses the new supreme leader, said the assembly was close to selecting a leader.

Rigid in his anti-western views, Mojtaba Khamenei is not the candidate Donald Trump would have wanted. Marco Rubio, the US secretary of state, said on Tuesday that Iran was run by “religious fanatic lunatics” – and Khamenei’s appointment is hardly likely to dispel that opinion.

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‘They were going to attack first’: Trump gives update on Iran – video

The choice of supreme leader is made by the 88-strong Assembly of Experts, who in this case are picking from a field of six possible candidates. His election would be a powerful if unsurprising symbol that the government is not looking to find an accommodation with America.

Trump has said the worst-case scenario would be if Khamenei’s successor was “as bad as the previous person”.

There has been speculation for more than a decade that he would be his father’s successor, which grew when Ebrahim Raisi, the elected president and favourite of Khamenei, was killed in a helicopter crash.

Mojtaba Khamenei was born in 1969 and studied theology after graduating from high school. At the age of 17, he went to serve in the Iran-Iraq war, but it was not until the late 1990s that he came to be recognised as a public figure in his own right.

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After the landslide defeat of Khamenei’s preferred candidate, Ali Akbar Nategh Nuri, in the 1997 presidential election, where he won only 25% of the final vote, various conservative Iranian groups realised the need to make changes to their structures and Mojtaba Khamenei was central to that project.

He was also seen as instrumental by reformists in suppressing the protests in 2009 that came after allegations the presidential election had been rigged, with his name chanted in the streets as one of those responsible. Mostafa Tajzadeh, a senior member of Iran’s reformist parties who was imprisoned after the vote, alleged that his and his wife, Fakhr al-Sadat Mohtashamipour’s, legal case was under the direct supervision of Mojtaba Khamenei.

In 2022 he was given the title of ayatollah – essential to his promotion. By then he was a regular figure by his father’s side at political meetings, as well as playing an influential role in the Islamic Republic’s Broadcasting Corporation, the government’s official media outlet often criticised for churning out dull political propaganda that many Iranians reject in favour of overseas satellite channels. He has also played a central role in the administration of his father’s substantial financial empire.

His closest political allies are Ahmad Vahidi, the newly appointed IRGC commander; Hossein Taeb, a former head of the IRGC’s intelligence organisation; and Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the current speaker of the parliament.

His rumoured appointment and its hereditary nature has long been resisted by reformists. The former prime minister Mir Hossein Mousavi, referring to the long history of rumours about Mojtaba Khamenei succeeding his father as leader, wrote in 2022: “News of this conspiracy have been heard for 13 years. If they are not truly pursuing it, why don’t they deny such an intention once and for all?”

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The Assembly of Experts, in response, denounced “meaninglessness of doubts” and said the assembly would select only “the most qualified and the most suitable”.

Israel on Tuesday struck the building in the Iranian city of Qom, one of Shia Islam’s main seats of power, where the assembly was scheduled, but the building was empty, according to IRGC-affiliated media.

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Video: Senators Question Kristi Noem on ICE Immigration Tactics

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Video: Senators Question Kristi Noem on ICE Immigration Tactics

new video loaded: Senators Question Kristi Noem on ICE Immigration Tactics

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Senators Question Kristi Noem on ICE Immigration Tactics

Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem repeatedly refused to apologize for suggesting that Alex Pretti and Renee Good, two U.S. citizens shot and killed by agents, were domestic terrorists.

What we’ve seen is a disaster under your leadership, Ms. Noem. A disaster. What we’ve seen is innocent people getting detained that turn out are American citizens. I could talk about the culture that’s been created here. After the killings of Renee Good and Alex Pretti, when I spoke to Alex’s parents, they told me that you calling him a domestic terrorist — this was directly from them — the day after he was killed, a nurse in our V.A., Alex — one of the most hurtful things they could ever imagine was said by you about their son. Do you have anything you want to say to Alex Pretti’s parents? Ma’am, I did not call him a domestic terrorist. I said It appeared to be an incident of — I think the parents saw it for what it was. In a hearing — recent hearing before the HSGAC committee, C.B.P. and ICE officials testified under oath that their agencies did not inform you that Pretti was a domestic terrorist — during that hearing, stated during that hearing, I was getting reports from the ground, from agents at the scene, and I would say that it was a chaotic scene. How did you think that calling them domestic terrorists at that scene was somehow going to calm the situation? The fact that you can’t admit to a mistake, which looks like under investigation, it’s going to prove that Ms. Good and Mr. Pretti probably should not have been shot in the face and in the back. Law enforcement needs to learn from that. You don’t protect them by not looking after the facts.

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Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem repeatedly refused to apologize for suggesting that Alex Pretti and Renee Good, two U.S. citizens shot and killed by agents, were domestic terrorists.

By Christina Kelso and Jackeline Luna

March 3, 2026

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