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Why Pennsylvania could be the key to the White House

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Why Pennsylvania could be the key to the White House

Houses across the Monongahela River are seen from Braddock, Pa., on Oct. 16, 2024.

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The race for Pennsylvania is in full swing.

Commercial breaks across the state are packed with attack ads. Some claim Vice President Harris made inflation worse while others highlight former President Donald Trump’s role in restricting abortion access for millions of Americans.

With just over two weeks until Election Day, the amount and frequency of ads shouldn’t come as a shock. Daniel Hopkins, a political science professor at the University of Pennsylvania, said bombarding state residents with TV ads is politically strategic.

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“Candidates are better off when they can persuade voters, because if they persuade a voter, they not only add one to their tally, but they take one out of their opponents tally,” Hopkins said. “Whereas if I just turn out a voter, then I’ve added one to my tally, but I haven’t done anything to my opponent’s tally.”

But voters across the state are bearing the brunt of the political grind, as both campaigns have spent more money on ads in Pennsylvania than any other battleground state. Harris and Trump need the state because it holds 19 electoral votes – the largest share available among the seven closely watched battleground states.

Why is Pennsylvania getting so much attention?

Polls show Harris and Trump are locked in a tight race here. Several Pennsylvania political observers NPR spoke to as part of our We, The Voters series say the state is a toss up, which is why the candidates are fiercely fighting to win votes here.

A sign supporting former president Donald Trump is seen in Ronks, Pa., on Friday Oct. 18 2024.

A sign supporting former president Donald Trump is seen in Ronks, PA, on Friday Oct. 18, 2024.

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Both candidates and their running mates have spent increasingly more time here over the past few weeks.

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Harris sat for a testy interview with Fox News anchor Bret Baier in Philadelphia last week, as she attempted to present herself as an alternate choice for Republicans who are unhappy with Trump. And earlier this month, Trump returned to Butler, where he survived an assassination attempt this summer, and honed in on immigration and border control.

Since President Biden dropped out of the presidential race and endorsed Harris in late July, Democrats have spent about $159 million on advertising in Pennsylvania compared Republicans who have spent around $121 million, according to a recent AdImpact report.

Pennsylvanians have voted for the winner of every presidential election since former President Barack Obama won in 2008. And in the prior four presidential elections, Pennsylvania voted reliably blue.

But the state swung red in 2016 when Trump won it by roughly 45,000 votes. In 2020, the Keystone State state flipped again. Biden won it by about 80,000 votes, according to Pennsylvania voting results data. Although Biden’s win was larger than Trump’s, it was not an overwhelming victory. In a state that then had more than 9 million registered voters, his win amounted to one percentage point.

So what’s on the minds of voters this year?

A September poll of 800 likely Pennsylvania voters found that people here care most about the economy, followed by abortion.

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Retired Navy veteran Ed Grkman, whom NPR met in West Mifflin, a borough located southeast of Pittsburgh, said he favors Trump to handle the economy. An American flag waved from a pole in his front lawn, as he cut his grass and stopped to speak. Grkman lives off of a fixed Social Security income and said prices have gotten higher over the past four years.

“I’m doing worse than I was when Donald Trump was in office,” Grkman said. “So, anybody voting should be voting for the price to be lower.”

Jessica Krayer poses for a portrait in Pittsburgh, Pa., on Oct. 15, 2024.

Jessica Krayer poses for a portrait in Pittsburgh, Pa., on Oct. 15, 2024.

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Meanwhile, abortion access — Harris’ strongest issue — is top of mind for nearly half of Pennsylvania voters, including many independents.

Jessica Krayer, a lactation consultant at West Penn Hospital in Pittsburgh, said supporting Harris and Democrats would help preserve abortion access in the state.

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Krayer, a nurse with 19 years of experience in women’s health, has helped deliver babies and handled more difficult pregnancies, including some that threatened the help of patients. After the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, she also welcomed and treated patients from neighboring states with restrictive abortion laws.

“No matter what, that decision [to get an abortion] is never taken lightly,” Krayer said. “It is not my job to judge anyone for that situation. If I was in a situation where I couldn’t afford to feed another kid, I don’t know what I would do.”

Here’s what Trump and Harris need to win the state

Trump is a household name at this point. And his populist message continues to resonate with white Pennsylvania voters without college degrees, aging voters and blue collar workers, including many who worked in the state’s declining steel, coal and manufacturing industries.

Those residents make up about half of the state’s eligible voter base.

“Donald Trump will do particularly well here in Pennsylvania to the extent that the Trump campaign is able to turn out irregular voters who lean toward the president,” Hopkins said.

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Harris will need to maintain gains that Biden made in many of the suburbs around Pittsburgh and Philadelphia, Hopkins added. Biden won in 2020 in large part from turnout in the most populous cities in the state — Philadelphia, Pittsburgh and Allentown — voted in his favor. He also benefited from losing by fewer votes in the state’s more conservative small towns and suburban areas.

A Harris Walz sign in Lancaster, PA, on Friday October 18 2024.

A Harris Walz sign in Lancaster, Pa., on Friday Oct. 18, 2024.

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Harris will also need to rely on the sizable share of Black voters and smaller number of Latino voters in places like Philadelphia, Hopkins said.

Black people make up nearly 40% of the population in Philadelphia, according to the United States Census Bureau. Latinos make up about 16%.

Joe Hill, a board member of Black Leadership Pennsylvania, a political action committee working to educate Black residents across the state about voting, said Harris has strong appeal in the state’s big cities thanks to her identity as a Black and South Asian woman.

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“Her ability as a woman to rise up the ranks on her own merits is motivating a lot of women in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh,” Hill said.

The same is true for some Latino voters in the state, like Guillermo Lopez of Allentown, Pa., where Latinos make up more than half the population.

Pinned to his sweater, when NPR met him for an interview, were two big blue buttons that read “Vote for Harris.”

“I already filled in my ballot and mailed it in,” Lopez said. “If I keep talking, I’ll get weepy because I never imagined in my life that I would be voting for someone that looks like my daughter.”

Destinee Adams reported from Allentown. Obed Manuel reported from Pittsburgh.

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This story was edited by Majd Al-Waheidi.

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Crews race to contain LA wildfires as menacing winds may ramp up: Live updates

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Crews race to contain LA wildfires as menacing winds may ramp up: Live updates
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LOS ANGELES − Fire crews on Sunday were racing to gain an upper hand against infernos that have ignited across the Los Angeles area amid ominous new wind warnings as flames threatened additional Southern California communities.

Aircraft unloaded water and fire retardant on hills where the Palisades Fire − the most destructive in the history of Los Angeles − ballooned another 1,000 acres to a total of 23,654, destroying more homes. The expansion of the fire, which was 11% contained, to the north and east spurred officials to issue more mandatory evacuations to the west of the 405 freeway as the blaze put parts of Encino and Brentwood in peril.

Cal Fire official Todd Hopkins said the Palisades Fire had spread into the Mandeville Canyon neighborhood and threatened to jump into the upscale Brentwood community and the San Fernando Valley.

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The Palisades Fire is one of six blazes that have erupted since Tuesday, leaving at least 16 people dead. Four of the six fires remained active on Sunday.

Santa Ana winds that have fueled the blazes for the past week were expected to strengthen Sunday morning in Los Angeles and Ventura counties and again late Monday through Tuesday morning. Sustained winds could reach 30 mph, with gusts up to 70 mph possible , forecasters said.

“Critical fire-weather conditions will unfortunately ramp up again … for southern California and last through at least early next week as periodic enhancements of off-shore winds continue,” the National Weather Service said. “This may lead to the spread of ongoing fires as well as the development of new ones.”

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Developments:

∎ About12,000 structures have been damaged or destroyed from the wildfires, which have consumed about 38,000 acres of land total, according to CalFire.

∎ Evacuation orders throughout the Los Angeles area now cover 153,000 residents. Another 166,000 residents have been warned that they may have to evacuate, Los Angeles County Sheriff Robert Luna, said.

∎ Gov. Gavin Newsom announced an investigation into water supply issues that may have impeded firefighters’ efforts.

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At least 16 people have died between the Eaton and Palisades fires, the Los Angeles County Medical Examiner said Saturday.

The Palisades Fire had at least five deaths, according to medical examiner records, and 11 people have died in the Eaton Fire.

Of the 16 total deaths in both fires, the only victim identified by officials was Victor Shaw, 66, who died Wednesday protecting his home in Altadena. Another victim was man in his 80s, but authorities did not release his name, pending notification of next of kin.

To the northeast, the Eaton Fire stood at 14,117 acres and was 15% contained after ripping through parts of Altadena and Pasadena. More than 7,000 structures were damaged or destroyed,  Fire Chief Anthony Marrone said.

In Altadena, California official Don Fregulia said managing the Eaton Fire and its impact will be a “huge, Herculean task” that he said will take “many weeks of work.”

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Progress was reported Saturday in bringing electrical power back to some Los Angeles neighborhoods.

Southern California Edison CEO Steven Powell said there are now about 48,000 customers without power, “down from over half a million just a couple days ago.”

Yes fire officials warned public safety power shutoffs were again likely to prevent new fires being ignited.

“They help save lives,” Marrone said. “Yes, they’re a challenge to deal with, but it’s certainly better than having another fire start.”

Richard and Cathryn Conn evacuated from the Pacific Palisades neighborhood earlier this week, only to find out that much of their neighborhood had been decimated. But they still aren’t sure about their four-bedroom house where they’d lived for over a quarter-century.

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“You can visualize every room,’’ Richard Conn, 75, said, “and then you know there’s a 50% chance it doesn’t exist anymore.”

“If you have ever wondered what it was like living in Dresden after the World War II firebombing, you should come to the Palisades,” he said.

They also don’t know what’s going to happen next as dangerous weather conditions have made it difficult to contain the fires, and more brush fires seem to keep popping up all over the county.

“I feel like people are panicking,” said Gary Baseman, 64. Read more.

As California fire officials are still getting to the bottom of what sparked the wildfires raging across Los Angeles, and politicians point fingers at one another, climate change is helping drive an increase in large wildfires in the U.S.

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“Climate change is leading to larger and more severe wildfires in the western United States,” the latest National Climate Assessment previously reported. These fires have “significant public health, socioeconomic, and ecological implications for the nation.”

But is climate change the main factor in California? It’s not quite that simple. Reporters from the Arizona Republic, part of the USA TODAY Network, dive into this topic. Read more here

Contributing: Jeanine Santucci, Eduardo Cuevas; Reuters

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Video: Community L.A. Fire Brigade Steps In to Help Evacuate Residents

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Video: Community L.A. Fire Brigade Steps In to Help Evacuate Residents

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Community L.A. Fire Brigade Steps In to Help Evacuate Residents

Deep into the evacuation zone, volunteers are stepping in to evacuate L.A. residents from encroaching wildfires. Armed with radios, hoses and knowledge of the area, this brigade offers help to overextended fire departments as they try to reach people who have yet to flee.

“Top is Yankee.” “Victor’s your side. Yankee is the other side of Topanga, OK?” Community fire brigade volunteers are on the streets of Topanga, California. The Palisades fire was encroaching on this home, and Keegan Gibbs and his team were working to evacuate the owner. “OK, hi. So I gotta do this fast, so.” “I honestly just kind of want you to leave, because it’s getting bad.” “No we’re out of here in five minutes.” The brigade works to back up the fire department when resources are stretched thin. “L.A. County and the other supporting agencies are the best in the world at what they do. Events like this, it’s not enough.” The Palisades fire has now been burning for several days, and has destroyed tens of thousands of acres. “It makes no sense for somebody to try to stay here. It’s so unbelievably dangerous.” “I walked kind of with Keegan a little bit. We were going to stay, probably going to stay for a little while, but we walked the property and it’s just almost like, I just don’t think it’s safe. Can you just open that? I’m want to throw some more stuff in here, and then we’ll be good. Just going to put pictures, important memorabilia.” “There’s a huge denial that people won’t be affected by fire, and we have to be advocates for people to realize and accept that risk.” With firefighters still unable to contain two of the region’s largest fires, more L.A. residents are expected to join the tens of thousands who have already been forced to evacuate. “Our mission is to make sure people are safe, just full stop.”

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Malaysia expects surge of Chinese investment, economy minister says

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Malaysia expects surge of Chinese investment, economy minister says

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Chinese chipmakers and technology companies are heading to Malaysia in droves, its economy minister Rafizi Ramli said, as Beijing prepares to face more tariffs when Donald Trump returns as US president this month.

The moves by Chinese companies, which are expected to result in billions of dollars of investment in Malaysia in the coming years, would rival the US companies that have dominated the country’s market, he said.

“Chinese [companies] are very keen to go outside and expand beyond their domestic market,” Rafizi told the Financial Times in an interview. “Those companies are now looking at relocating or expanding into Malaysia.”

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Trump has threatened to impose 60 per cent tariffs on Chinese imports when he re-enters the White House on January 20, rattling investors and putting companies on alert to restructure their supply chains.

Malaysia has been a big beneficiary over the past decade of such “China-plus-one” strategies, where multinational companies complement their Chinese operations with investments in regional countries to diversify risk and lower costs.

It has also positioned itself as a crucial player in global supply chains for high-tech industries such as artificial intelligence, with long-standing semiconductor manufacturing operations in Penang in the north and a burgeoning hub for data centres in the southern state of Johor.

US companies have dominated these sectors in Malaysia, but Rafizi said he expected a wave of Chinese investment on the back of initiatives his government was putting in place to develop the industries further.

Joe Biden’s administration has restricted sales of advanced chips by US companies to China, posing a potential threat to their investments in Malaysia, where many of the products are manufactured, and opening the door for Chinese competitors.

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Rafizi said he made a 10-day trip in June to China, where he met 100 AI, tech and biomedical companies to assess their appetite for investing in Malaysia. He added that these efforts had resulted in two investment delegations from China in the past few months.

“Chinese investments usually come with their own ecosystem,” he said. “We will be seeing more and more, especially if we can secure the first two or three anchor investors from China.”

He added that many companies were also seeking to increase exposure to the fast-growing south-east Asian market as China’s economic momentum slows and trade with the US faces additional barriers.

This week, Malaysia signed an agreement with Singapore to create a vast special economic zone between the two countries. Malaysia hopes the initiative will add $26bn a year to its economy by 2030, bringing in 20,000 skilled jobs and 50 new projects.

Between 2019 and 2023, Malaysia attracted $21bn of investment into its semiconductor industry and $10bn into data centres — the storage facilities that enable fast-growing technologies such as AI, cloud computing and cryptocurrency mining. In the past year alone, US tech companies Amazon, Nvidia, Google and Microsoft committed nearly $16bn, mostly for data centres in Johor.

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TikTok owner ByteDance is the largest Chinese group to invest in Johor, with a $2bn commitment last year.

Rafizi said that while historically, Malaysia had been happy to accept any foreign investment, it was becoming more selective as it sought to contribute more value to the products and services it produced.

He added that while increasing US-China tensions would harm global trade, it could prompt Chinese companies to give Malaysia a bigger role in chip design, rather than just manufacturing, which would generate more income as the country climbed the value chain.

“The unintended consequence of some tariff measures targeted at Chinese companies basically helps countries like Malaysia to weed out the more genuine and long-term investments from China compared to the ones that just look to use Malaysia as a manufacturing outpost,” he said.

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