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What Trump's pick for Treasury secretary could mean for global markets

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What Trump's pick for Treasury secretary could mean for global markets

Scott Bessent speaks at the National Conservative Conference in Washington D.C., Wednesday, July 10, 2024.

Dominic Gwinn | Afp | Getty Images

Financial markets on Monday welcomed President-elect Donald Trump’s pick for U.S. Treasury secretary, with currencies across the globe rallying on hopes that hedge fund manager Scott Bessent can take some of the sting out of Trump’s more extreme economic views.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback against six major currencies, fell 0.5% to 107.01 on Monday, paring some of its recent gains after a remarkable rally since late September.

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The euro was a top performer, rising 0.7% to trade at $1.049 at 12:50 p.m. London time. The Japanese yen, pound sterling and Antipodean currencies were also trading higher against the dollar.

The moves come as global investors reacted to news from late Friday that Trump signaled his intention to nominate Bessent to lead one of the most influential roles in U.S. government. The Treasury Department has broad oversight of tax policy, public debt and international finance.

Strategists regard Bessent, the founder of Connecticut-based investment firm Key Square Group, as a “safe pair of hands,” a well-known market participant and a more moderate pick compared to some of his rivals.

It is expected the 62-year-old will push for Trump to consider a softer approach to tariffs, strip back regulation to boost growth and target a reduction in deficit spending.

“Trump’s pick for Treasury Secretary has swelled investor sentiment further with stocks on Wall Street looking set for another flurry of gains,” Susannah Streeter, head of money and markets at Hargreaves Lansdown, said in a research note.

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“Hedge fund manager Scott Bessent’s long career of navigating the twists and turns of markets, has boosted confidence about incoming pro-business policies and lifted hopes that any tariffs would be highly targeted and potentially less inflationary in nature,” she added.

A ‘layered’ approach to tariffs

Trump’s historic election victory earlier this month ratcheted up concerns about the prospect for higher prices, prompting strategists to rethink the outlook for global bond yields and currencies.

It is widely thought that Trump’s pledge to introduce tax cuts and steep tariffs could boost U.S. economic growth — but widen the fiscal deficit and refuel inflation.

An employee sorts navel oranges at a fruit processing factory of Nongfu Spring on November 23, 2024 in Xinfeng County, Ganzhou City, Jiangxi Province of China.

China News Service | China News Service | Getty Images

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In an effort to raise revenues, Trump has suggested he could impose a blanket 20% tariff on all goods imported into the U.S., with a tariff of up to 60% for Chinese products and one as high as 2,000% on vehicles built in Mexico.

While many economists are skeptical about the effectiveness of tariffs, Bessent has defended them as “a useful tool for achieving the president’s foreign policy objectives.” He has also, however, called for tariffs to be “layered in” gradually.

“News that Scott Bessent is the top choice for incoming US Treasury Minister has raised the possibility that some ‘Trump trades’ may be watered down,” analysts at Rabobank said in a research note.

“Bessent, a successful macro hedge fund manager, is associated with a preference to reduce the US budget deficit to 3% of GDP, which clearly suggests less appetite for deficit spending,” they added.

Bessent, who once worked for billionaire philanthropist and investor George Soros, has advocated for a so-called “3-3-3” target, which refers to a plan to cut the deficit to 3% by 2028, achieve 3% economic growth and add 3 million new barrels of oil per day.

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Business as usual?

Some strategists expect Trump’s Treasury chief pick to be welcomed as good news for Asian currencies over the coming months.

“The market view that Bessent is a ‘safe hands’ candidate, may see some relief rally in Treasuries from the open on Monday, as the risk of a more unorthodox candidate is priced out,” Scott Spratt, strategist at Societe Generale Corporate and Investment Banking, said in a research note.

“We suspect his view that tariffs should be ‘layered’ and that initial levels being discussed are ‘maximalist’ positions, should also provide an opening boost to Asia FX and [the Chinese yuan],” he added.

U.S. President-elect Donald Trump prepares to exit after viewing the launch of the sixth test flight of the SpaceX Starship rocket in Brownsville, Texas, U.S., November 19, 2024. 

Brandon Bell | Via Reuters

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Tesla CEO Elon Musk suggested that nominating Bessent as Treasury chief would be a disappointment. In a social media post via X on Nov. 16, Musk described Bessent as a “business-as-usual choice,” adding that “business-as-usual is driving America bankrupt.”

Bessent has also been an advocate of Trump’s embrace of the crypto industry, which means he could soon become the first Treasury chief openly in favor of crypto assets. Trump has previously pledged to make America “the crypto capital of the planet.”

Bitcoin breached the $99,000 level for the first time last week as investors continue to price in Trump’s return to the White House.

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Trump claims US stockpiles mean wars can be fought ‘forever’; Kristi Noem testifies before Congress – US politics live

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Trump claims US stockpiles mean wars can be fought ‘forever’; Kristi Noem testifies before Congress – US politics live

Trump says US stockpiles mean “wars can be fought ‘forever’”

In a late night post on Truth Social, Donald Trump said that the US munitions stockpiles “at the medium and upper medium grade, never been higher or better”.

He added that the US has a “virtually unlimited supply of these weapons”, meaning that “wars can be fought ‘forever’”.

This comes after Trump said that the US-Israel war on Iran could go beyond the four-five weeks that the administration initially predicted. The president also did not rule out the possibility of US boots on the ground in Iran during an interview with the New York Post on Monday.

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“I rebuilt the military in my first term, and continue to do so. The United States is stocked, and ready to WIN, BIG!!!,” he wrote.

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Key events

During his opening remarks, Senate judicicary committee chairman, Chuck Grassley, blamed Democrats for the ongoing shutdown Department of Homeland Security (DHS) but highlighted four agencies: the Secret Service, Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), the Transportation Security Administration (TSA), and the Coast Guard.

Democrats are demanding tighter guardrails for federal immigration enforcement, but a sweeping tax bill signed into law last year conferred $75bn for Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), which means the agency is still functional amid the wider department shuttering.

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Supreme Court blocks redrawing of New York congressional map, dealing a win for GOP

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Supreme Court blocks redrawing of New York congressional map, dealing a win for GOP

The Supreme Court

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Win McNamee/Getty Images

The Supreme Court on Monday intervened in New York’s redistricting process, blocking a lower court decision that would likely have flipped a Republican congressional district into a Democratic district.    
  
At issue is the midterm redrawing of New York’s 11th congressional district, including Staten Island and a small part of Brooklyn. The district is currently held by a Republican, but on Jan. 21, a state Supreme Court judge ruled that the current district dilutes the power of Black and Latino voters in violation of the state constitution.  
  
GOP Rep. Nicole Malliotakis, who represents the district, and the Republican co-chair of the state Board of Elections promptly appealed to the U.S. Supreme Court, asking the justices to block the redrawing as an unconstitutional “racial gerrymander.” New York’s congressional election cycle was set to officially begin Feb. 24, the opening day for candidates to seek placement on the ballot.  
  
As in this year’s prior mid-decade redistricting fights — in Texas and California — the Trump administration backed the Republicans.   
 
Voters and the State of New York contended it’s too soon for the Supreme Court to wade into this dispute. New York’s highest state court has not issued a final judgment, so the voters asserted that if the Supreme Court grants relief now “future stay applicants will see little purpose in waiting for state court rulings before coming to this Court” and “be rewarded for such gamesmanship.” The state argues this is an issue for “New York courts, not federal courts” to resolve, and there is sufficient time for the dispute to be resolved on the merits. 
  
The court majority explained the decision to intervene in 101 words, which the three dissenting liberal justices  summarized as “Rules for thee, but not for me.” 
 
The unsigned majority order does not explain the Court’s rationale. It says only how long the stay will last, until the case moves through the New York State appeals courts. If, however, the losing party petitions and the court agrees to hear the challenge, the stay extends until the final opinion is announced. 
 
Dissenting from the decision were Justices Sonia Sotomayor, Elena Kagan, and Ketanji Brown Jackson. Writing for the three, Sotomayor  said that  if nonfinal decisions of a state trial court can be brought to highest court, “then every decision from any court is now fair game.” More immediately, she noted, “By granting these applications, the Court thrusts itself into the middle of every election-law dispute around the country, even as many States redraw their congressional maps ahead of the 2026 election.” 

Monday’s Supreme Court action deviates from the court’s hands-off pattern in these mid-term redistricting fights this year. In two previous cases — from Texas and California — the court refused to intervene, allowing newly drawn maps to stay in effect.  
  
Requests for Supreme Court intervention on redistricting issues has been a recurring theme this term, a trend that is likely to grow.  Earlier last month  the high court allowed California to use a voter-approved, Democratic-friendly map.  California’s redistricting came in response to a GOP-friendly redistricting plan in Texas that the Supreme Court also permitted to move forward. These redistricting efforts are expected to offset one another.     
   
But the high court itself has yet to rule on a challenge to Louisiana’s voting map, which was drawn by the state legislature after the decennial census in order to create a second majority-Black district.  Since the drawing of that second majority-black district, the state has backed away from that map, hoping to return to a plan that provides for only one majority-minority district.    
     
The Supreme Court’s consideration of the Louisiana case has stretched across two terms. The justices failed to resolve the case last term and chose to order a second round of arguments this term adding a new question: Does the state’s intentional creation of a second majority-minority district violate the constitution’s Fourteenth and Fifteenth Amendments’ guarantee of the right to vote and the authority of Congress to enforce that mandate?    
Following the addition of the new question, the state of Louisiana flipped positions to oppose the map it had just drawn and defended in court. Whether the Supreme Court follows suit remains to be seen. But the tone of the October argument suggested that the court’s conservative supermajority is likely to continue undercutting the 1965 Voting Rights Act.   

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Map: Earthquake Shakes Central California

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Map: Earthquake Shakes Central California

Note: Map shows the area with a shake intensity of 3 or greater, which U.S.G.S. defines as “weak,” though the earthquake may be felt outside the areas shown.  All times on the map are Pacific time. The New York Times

A minor earthquake with a preliminary magnitude of 3.5 struck in Central California on Monday, according to the United States Geological Survey.

The temblor happened at 7:17 a.m. Pacific time about 6 miles northwest of Pinnacles, Calif., data from the agency shows.

As seismologists review available data, they may revise the earthquake’s reported magnitude. Additional information collected about the earthquake may also prompt U.S.G.S. scientists to update the shake-severity map.

Source: United States Geological Survey | Notes: Shaking categories are based on the Modified Mercalli Intensity scale. When aftershock data is available, the corresponding maps and charts include earthquakes within 100 miles and seven days of the initial quake. All times above are Pacific time. Shake data is as of Monday, March 2 at 10:20 a.m. Eastern. Aftershocks data is as of Monday, March 2 at 11:18 a.m. Eastern.

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