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What Trump's pick for Treasury secretary could mean for global markets
Scott Bessent speaks at the National Conservative Conference in Washington D.C., Wednesday, July 10, 2024.
Dominic Gwinn | Afp | Getty Images
Financial markets on Monday welcomed President-elect Donald Trump’s pick for U.S. Treasury secretary, with currencies across the globe rallying on hopes that hedge fund manager Scott Bessent can take some of the sting out of Trump’s more extreme economic views.
The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback against six major currencies, fell 0.5% to 107.01 on Monday, paring some of its recent gains after a remarkable rally since late September.
The euro was a top performer, rising 0.7% to trade at $1.049 at 12:50 p.m. London time. The Japanese yen, pound sterling and Antipodean currencies were also trading higher against the dollar.
The moves come as global investors reacted to news from late Friday that Trump signaled his intention to nominate Bessent to lead one of the most influential roles in U.S. government. The Treasury Department has broad oversight of tax policy, public debt and international finance.
Strategists regard Bessent, the founder of Connecticut-based investment firm Key Square Group, as a “safe pair of hands,” a well-known market participant and a more moderate pick compared to some of his rivals.
It is expected the 62-year-old will push for Trump to consider a softer approach to tariffs, strip back regulation to boost growth and target a reduction in deficit spending.
“Trump’s pick for Treasury Secretary has swelled investor sentiment further with stocks on Wall Street looking set for another flurry of gains,” Susannah Streeter, head of money and markets at Hargreaves Lansdown, said in a research note.
“Hedge fund manager Scott Bessent’s long career of navigating the twists and turns of markets, has boosted confidence about incoming pro-business policies and lifted hopes that any tariffs would be highly targeted and potentially less inflationary in nature,” she added.
A ‘layered’ approach to tariffs
Trump’s historic election victory earlier this month ratcheted up concerns about the prospect for higher prices, prompting strategists to rethink the outlook for global bond yields and currencies.
It is widely thought that Trump’s pledge to introduce tax cuts and steep tariffs could boost U.S. economic growth — but widen the fiscal deficit and refuel inflation.
An employee sorts navel oranges at a fruit processing factory of Nongfu Spring on November 23, 2024 in Xinfeng County, Ganzhou City, Jiangxi Province of China.
China News Service | China News Service | Getty Images
In an effort to raise revenues, Trump has suggested he could impose a blanket 20% tariff on all goods imported into the U.S., with a tariff of up to 60% for Chinese products and one as high as 2,000% on vehicles built in Mexico.
While many economists are skeptical about the effectiveness of tariffs, Bessent has defended them as “a useful tool for achieving the president’s foreign policy objectives.” He has also, however, called for tariffs to be “layered in” gradually.
“News that Scott Bessent is the top choice for incoming US Treasury Minister has raised the possibility that some ‘Trump trades’ may be watered down,” analysts at Rabobank said in a research note.
“Bessent, a successful macro hedge fund manager, is associated with a preference to reduce the US budget deficit to 3% of GDP, which clearly suggests less appetite for deficit spending,” they added.
Bessent, who once worked for billionaire philanthropist and investor George Soros, has advocated for a so-called “3-3-3” target, which refers to a plan to cut the deficit to 3% by 2028, achieve 3% economic growth and add 3 million new barrels of oil per day.
Business as usual?
Some strategists expect Trump’s Treasury chief pick to be welcomed as good news for Asian currencies over the coming months.
“The market view that Bessent is a ‘safe hands’ candidate, may see some relief rally in Treasuries from the open on Monday, as the risk of a more unorthodox candidate is priced out,” Scott Spratt, strategist at Societe Generale Corporate and Investment Banking, said in a research note.
“We suspect his view that tariffs should be ‘layered’ and that initial levels being discussed are ‘maximalist’ positions, should also provide an opening boost to Asia FX and [the Chinese yuan],” he added.
U.S. President-elect Donald Trump prepares to exit after viewing the launch of the sixth test flight of the SpaceX Starship rocket in Brownsville, Texas, U.S., November 19, 2024.
Brandon Bell | Via Reuters
Tesla CEO Elon Musk suggested that nominating Bessent as Treasury chief would be a disappointment. In a social media post via X on Nov. 16, Musk described Bessent as a “business-as-usual choice,” adding that “business-as-usual is driving America bankrupt.”
Bessent has also been an advocate of Trump’s embrace of the crypto industry, which means he could soon become the first Treasury chief openly in favor of crypto assets. Trump has previously pledged to make America “the crypto capital of the planet.”
Bitcoin breached the $99,000 level for the first time last week as investors continue to price in Trump’s return to the White House.
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‘Music makes everything better’: A Texas doctor spins vinyl to give patients relief
Dr. Tyler Jorgensen sets “A Charlie Brown Christmas” on a record player at Dell Seton Medical Center in Austin Texas. He uses vinyl records as a form of music therapy for palliative care patients.
Lorianne Willett/KUT News
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Lorianne Willett/KUT News
AUSTIN, TEXAS — Lying in her bed at Dell Seton Medical Center at the University of Texas at Austin, 64-year-old Pamela Mansfield sways her feet to the rhythm of George Jones’ “She Thinks I Still Care.” Mansfield is still recovering much of her mobility after a recent neck surgery, but she finds a way to move to the music floating from a record player that was wheeled into her room.
“Seems to be the worst part is the stiffness in my ankles and the no feeling in the hands,” she says. “But music makes everything better.”
The record player is courtesy of the ATX-VINyL program, a project dreamed up by Dr. Tyler Jorgensen to bring music to the bedside of patients dealing with difficult diagnoses and treatments. He collaborates with a team of volunteers who wheel the player on a cart to patients’ rooms, along with a selection of records in their favorite genres.
“I think of this record player as a time machine,” he said. “You know, something starts spinning — an old, familiar song on a record player — and now you’re back at home, you’re out of the hospital, you’re with your family, you’re with your loved ones.”
Daniela Vargas, a volunteer for the ATX-VINyL program, wheels a record player to the hospital room of a palliative care patient in Austin, Texas.
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The healing power of Country music… and Thin Lizzy
Mansfield wanted to hear country music: Willie Nelson, Merle Haggard, George Jones. That genre reminds her of listening to records with her parents, who helped form her taste in music. Almost as soon as the first record spins, she starts cracking jokes.
“I have great taste in music. Men, on the other hand … ehhh. I think my picker’s broken,” she says.
Other patients ask for jazz, R&B or holiday records.
The man who gave Jorgensen the idea for ATX-VINyL loved classic rock. That was around three years ago, when Jorgensen, a long-time emergency medicine physician, began a fellowship in palliative care — a specialty aimed at improving quality of life for people with serious conditions, including terminal illnesses.
Shortly after he began the fellowship, he says he struggled to connect with a particular patient.
“I couldn’t draw this man out, and I felt like he was really struggling and suffering,” Jorgensen said.
He had the idea to try playing the patient some music.
He went with “The Boys Are Back in Town,” by the 1970s Irish rock group Thin Lizzy, and saw an immediate change in the patient.
“He was telling me old stories about his life. He was getting more honest and vulnerable about the health challenges he was facing,” Jorgensen said. “And it just struck me that all this time I’ve been practicing medicine, there’s such a powerful tool that is almost universal to the human experience, which is music, and I’ve never tapped into it.”
Dr. Tyler Jorgensen plays vinyl records as a form of music therapy for palliative care patients in Austin, Texas. Willie Nelson’s albums are a perennial hit.
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Creating new memories
Jorgensen realized records could lift the spirits of patients dealing with heavy circumstances in hospital spaces that are often aesthetically bare. And he thought vinyl would offer a more personal touch than streaming a digital track through a smartphone or speaker.
“There’s just something inherently warm about the friction of a record — the pops, the scratches,” he said. “It sort of resonates through the wooden record player, and it just feels different.”
Since then, he has built up a collection of 60 records and counting at the hospital. The most-requested album, by a landslide, is Fleetwood Mac’s Rumours from 1977. Willie is also popular, along with Etta James and John Denver. And around the holidays, the Vince Guaraldi Trio’s A Charlie Brown Christmas gets a lot of spins.
These days, it’s often a volunteer who rolls the record player from room to room after consulting nursing staff about patients and family members who are struggling and could use a visit.
Daniela Vargas, the UT Austin pre-med undergraduate who heads up the volunteer cohort, became passionate about music therapy years ago when she and her sister began playing violin for isolated patients during the COVID-19 pandemic. She said she sees similar benefits when she curates a collection of records for a patient today.
“We are usually not in the room for the entire time, so it’s a more intimate experience for the patient or family, but being able to interact with the patient in the beginning and at the end can be really transformative,” Vargas said.
Often, the palliative care patients visited by ATX-VINyL are near the end of life.
Jorgensen feels that the record player provides an interruption of the heaviness those patients and their families are experiencing. Suddenly, it’s possible to create a new, positive shared experience at a profoundly difficult time.
“Now you’re sort of looking at it together and thinking, ‘What are we going to do with this thing? Let’s play something for Mom, let’s play something for Dad.’” he said. “And you are creating a new, positive, shared experience in the setting of something that can otherwise be very sad, very heavy.”
Other patients, like Pamela Mansfield, are working painstakingly toward recovery.
She has had six neck surgeries since April, when she had a serious fall. But on the day she listened to the George Jones album, she had a small victory to celebrate: She stood up for three minutes, a record since her most recent surgery.
With the record spinning, she couldn’t help but think about the victories she’s still pursuing.
“It’s motivating,” she said. “Me and my broom could dance really well to some of this stuff.”
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Weather tracker: Further flood watches issued across California
After prolonged heavy rainfall and devastating flooding across the Pacific north-west in the past few weeks, further flood watches have been issued across California through this week.
With 50-75mm (2-3in) of rainfall already reported across northern California this weekend, a series of atmospheric rivers will continue to bring periods of heavy rain and mountain snow across the northern and central parts of the state, with flood watches extending until Friday.
Cumulative rainfall totals are expected to widely exceed 50mm (2in) across a vast swathe of California by Boxing Day, but with totals around 200-300mm (8-12in) possible for the north-western corner of California and western-facing slopes of the northern Sierra Nevada mountains.
Los Angeles could receive 100-150mm (4-6in) of rainfall between Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, which could make it one of the wettest Christmases on record for the city. River and urban flooding are likely – particularly where there is run-off from high ground – with additional risks of mudslides and rockslides in mountain and foothill areas.
Winter storm warnings are also in effect for Yosemite national park, with the potential for 1.8-2.4 metres (6-8ft) of accumulating snow by Boxing Day. Heavy snow alongside strong winds will make travel very difficult over the festive period.
Heavy rain, lightning and strong winds are forecast across large parts of Zimbabwe leading up to Christmas. A level 2 weather warning has been issued by the Meteorological Services Department from Sunday 21 December to Wednesday 24 December. Some areas are expected to see more than 50mm of rainfall within a 24-hour period. The rain will be accompanied by hail, frequent lightning, and strong winds. These conditions have been attributed to the interaction between warm, moist air with low-pressure systems over the western and northern parts of the country.
Australia will see some large variations in temperatures over the festive period. Sydney, which is experiencing temperatures above 40C, is expected to tumble down to about 22C by Christmas Day, about 5C below average for this time of year. Perth is going to see temperatures gradually creep up, reaching a peak of 40C around Christmas Day. This is about 10C above average for this time of year.
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