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Visual analysis: Ukraine’s war of survival enters third year

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Visual analysis: Ukraine’s war of survival enters third year

Ukrainians enter the third year of war with a bleaker outlook than at any point since the early days of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s full-scale invasion on February 24 2022.

A year ago they were brimming with optimism over their chances of pushing Moscow’s troops back and breaking the so-called land bridge between the occupied Crimean peninsula and the other parts of Russian-held territory in eastern Ukraine. But the counteroffensive failed to make headway, with opposing forces now entrenched along the 1,000km frontline.

Kyiv’s best hope is to hold the line and cause its enemy much higher casualties than it incurs. Putin’s bet is that Russian superiority in both mobilising men and defence industrial production will break western and Ukrainian resolve.

Most Ukrainians are determined to fight on for their freedom. But their forces are running low on ammunition and air defence interceptors. The country also needs to find about 500,000 new recruits this year. Wavering US military support and Europe struggling to make up shortfalls in arms supplies will make this more difficult.

Here is a visual guide to how Russia’s war against Ukraine is bearing on each nation’s military, economy and politics.

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Military

The land battle in 2023 consisted of minor gains for the Ukrainian forces, compared with their lightning counteroffensive in 2022 which liberated swaths of territory.

Ukraine lost the eastern city of Bakhmut in May after a gruelling nine-month battle in which Russia was estimated to have lost some 30,000 men. Many of the dead were convicts recruited by the Wagner Group, led by Yevgeny Prigozhin, who a month later staged a mutiny against Moscow and then died in a plane crash.

The much-anticipated Ukrainian counteroffensive of summer 2023 ground to a halt after advancing a mere 30km. Russian minefields and fortifications coupled with constant drone surveillance and instant artillery strikes proved insurmountable.

Valeriy Zaluzhny, then commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian armed forces, admitted in November that the land war was at a “stalemate” and that only a technological revolution, including drones and electronic warfare, would give his country back the advantage. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy replaced Zaluzhny with Oleksandr Syrsky this month.

Key battlefield and frontline movements

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Ukraine’s strategy of “active defence” is intended to bleed the enemy while minimising its own losses. Russia on the other hand is taking the “meat-grinder” approach by recruiting vast numbers of soldiers who seem expendable on the battlefield.

Western officials estimate some 350,000 Russians have been killed or badly injured since February 2022, while 70,000 Ukrainians have died and 120,000 have been seriously wounded.

After a mobilisation wave in 2022, Moscow claims to have recruited an additional 490,000 men last year mostly by offering generous pay and recruiting convicts from prisons. While Ukraine struggles to replace soldiers who have been fighting for two years, Russia is expected to add another 400,000 fresh recruits in 2024.

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Towards the end of 2023, Ukraine began facing shortfalls in artillery supplies from the US and Europe. Rationing of shells is having an impact on the battlefield, making it harder for Ukrainian forces to fend off Russian infantry assaults or strike battery positions. This month, Ukraine withdrew its troops from the frontline town of Avdiivka after a four-month battle.

With the land war looking grim, Ukraine pivoted last year to using technology to carry out daring attacks within occupied territory and in Russia.

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Ukraine’s biggest military achievements were drone and missile strikes against military facilities in Russian-occupied Crimea. Ukrainian forces are estimated to have sunk one-fifth of Russia’s Black Sea fleet stationed in the area.

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There has also been a vast uptick in attacks deeper into Russian territory, with home-built Ukrainian missiles and drones striking military facilities, munitions factories and energy infrastructure in Russia.

Ukraine aims to step up these strikes on Russian soil in 2024, with the aim of at least disrupting if not crippling the Kremlin’s war effort and bringing the conflict home to ordinary Russians.

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Economy and trade

Both Russia and Ukraine’s war economies grew faster than expected last year, with Moscow defying western sanctions imposed in 2022 that were aimed at reducing the Kremlin’s revenues and ability to fund the conflict.

The Kremlin has been successful in evading curbs on its oil exports, while at the same time firing up the Russian defence industrial complex to produce large amounts of ammunition, drones, missiles and armour. However, Ukrainian and western officials say sanctions banning western chip exports to Russia are limiting Moscow’s capacity to produce more sophisticated kit.

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Russia’s annual artillery munition production has risen from 800,000 prewar to an estimated 2.5mn, or 4mn including refurbished shells. EU and US production capacity stands at about 700,000 and 400,000 respectively, although the EU aims to hit 1.4mn by the end of this year and the US 1.2mn by 2024.

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Ukraine’s economy suffered a catastrophic slump following Russia’s full-scale invasion, but it has since begun to recover.

One bright spot for Kyiv is that its attacks on Russia’s Black Sea fleet in Crimea have forced the Kremlin to pull its ships away from the Ukrainian coast. This has allowed Ukraine to restart regular cargo shipping from its Black Sea ports, despite Russia pulling out of the grain initiative, which has restored a major export route and vital economic lifeline.

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The surge in Russia’s defence spending may be buoying the growth of gross domestic product but it is also fuelling inflation, which is now higher than in Ukraine.

This will erode real wages and living standards in a country where investments in crumbling Soviet-era infrastructure and public utilities are badly needed.

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Politics

Ahead of Putin’s expected re-election in March, a new wave of repression against dissenting voices is taking place in Russia. Western politicians and regime critics have roundly blamed Putin for the death of the president’s most prominent critic, Alexei Navalny.

While few signs of the public turning against the president are reflected in opinion polls, this may not be a reliable indicator in a regime dominated by fear. Anti-war criticism is outlawed in Russia and any show of support for dissidents is crushed.

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Zelenskyy’s public support is not holding up quite so well, as war fatigue and fears of abandonment by western allies set in.

The Ukrainian leader has also faced criticism over his decision to replace Zaluzhny and accusations of the erosion of media freedom. Elections in Ukraine have also been suspended during the country’s state of emergency.

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Nevertheless, some 85 per cent of Ukrainians are confident of their country’s victory over Russia, according to a survey in February conducted by the Kyiv-based Rating Group.

However, Ukrainians know that international support is an important condition for victory. Just 19 per cent of respondents believed Ukraine could defeat Russia without international assistance.

Support for Ukraine dropped markedly in the US last year, particularly among Republicans, who have held up further military aid for Kyiv and whose presidential frontrunner Donald Trump is seeking to oust Ukraine ally Joe Biden from the White House in November.

Unless Congress approves a $60bn aid package, there will be no further transfers of weaponry from US stockpiles to Ukraine.

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In the EU there is still a solid majority in favour of helping Ukraine, but public support is beginning to soften, potentially increasing pressure on European leaders to rethink their stance.

But for now there is no sign of solidarity with Kyiv breaking down. After a two-month delay caused by Hungary’s Viktor Orbán, EU leaders this month agreed a four-year €50bn financial support plan for Ukraine and several European capitals have made significant pledges of military aid.

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Most military experts said Russia probably lacked the combat power to break through Ukrainian defensive positions in a sweeping manoeuvre this year.

But Ukraine urgently needs western supplies of ammunition. If it does not receive them, holding its lines will prove difficult — and Kyiv risks losing a lot of men by simply holding on, even if it does so successfully.

“What Ukraine is losing is its capacity to mount a counteroffensive,” said military analyst François Heisbourg.

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Bessent on Trump’s crypto earnings: “I don’t think there’s an appearance problem”

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Bessent on Trump’s crypto earnings: “I don’t think there’s an appearance problem”

In an exclusive interview with CBS News on Thursday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he doesn’t believe the recent disclosure of President Trump’s billions in crypto earnings is problematic for the president. 

“I don’t think there’s an appearance problem,” Bessent told CBS News anchor and MoneyWatch correspondent Kelly O’Grady regarding Mr. Trump’s earnings.  

According to a financial disclosure released earlier this week, Mr. Trump has earned approximately $1.4 billion from his crypto ventures since beginning his second term. Those include his “meme coin” $TRUMP and earnings from World Liberty Financial, a cryptocurrency company backed by the president and his family.

Congressional Democrats have criticized Mr. Trump’s crypto windfall, arguing it presents a conflict of interest since his administration has sought to loosen regulations on cryptocurrency.

“This is an innovation presidency,” Bessent told CBS News. “So whether it’s digital access, whether it’s AI, whether it’s everything that is going on in the tech ecosystem that, you know, all Americans are benefiting from that.”

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White House spokesperson Anna Kelly told CBS News on Tuesday that “there are no conflicts of interest” in the disclosure.

In his interview with CBS News, Bessent also touched on the latest developments with the tax-deferred Trump Accounts and his outlook for the U.S. economy as it grapples with the impacts of the Iran war.  

Economic relief is coming for American families, Bessent believes

The Treasury secretary said his message to Americans who are experiencing strain at the grocery store and at the pump wrought by the Iran war is that “we’re going to get to the other side of this.”

Since the war began in late February, halts to shipping traffic in the critical Strait of Hormuz, which handles roughly 20% of the world’s global oil supply, have led to rising gas prices, which have in turn accelerated inflation and raised costs more broadly. In May, the annual inflation rate rose to 4.2%, according to the Labor Department, its highest level since April 2023. 

The average price of a gallon of regular gasoline on Thursday was $3.83, according to AAA. At the height of the war, gas prices topped $4.50 a gallon, but have steadily declined in recent weeks as oil prices return to near prewar levels and the U.S. and Iran negotiate over a more permanent end to the war

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Bessent said he is hopeful that the average drops to $3 a gallon by Labor Day.

“Gasoline prices are a little stickier on the way down,” Bessent said. “We’re trying to give the gasoline retailers a little bit of a nudge. We’re telling them we’re watching them. We’ve had some good uptake from some of the bigger retailers from some of the bigger retailers in terms of what they want to do for consumers.” 

Thursday’s jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that U.S. employers added 57,000 jobs in June, far below what economists had predicted, but the unemployment rate held steady, dipping slightly to 4.2% from 4.3% the month before. However, the report found that annual wage growth was 3.5%, below the rate of inflation.

Bessent described the discrepancy between wage gains and inflation as a “short-term spike,” and said he expects to see oil and energy prices continue to drop.  

“I would expect, perhaps, as soon as this month, we’re going to see real wage gains,” Bessent said.

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Asked whether the stock market’s strong performance in recent months, or the real-world pressure facing many Americans, is a more realistic view of the state of the U.S. economy, Bessent said he believes the market’s strong performance will be predictive of the direction the economy takes.

“The stock market lives in the future. So what the stock market is telling us is, presumably, what I am saying today, that we’ll get to the other side of this,” Bessent said. “Rates will come down and then we will be back up to real wage gain. So both can be true.”

Trump Accounts a tool to create “financial literacy,” Bessent says

The White House announced this week that beginning on July 4, Americans can begin contributing to Trump Accounts, a federal program launched earlier this year designed to help children under 18 invest money in the stock market and build savings before they reach adulthood, similar to how adults save for retirement.

“Thirty-eight percent of American households have no investment in our great equity markets, and we want everyone to share, you know, in the bounty that is the U.S.,” Bessent said. “In our innovation and our capital markets, and, you know, the economic engine, greatest in the history of the world. So, you know, over time, I would think that that 38% number would move toward zero. And then the other thing too is financial literacy.”

According to Bessent, more than 6 million Trump Accounts have been opened so far, and there are approximately 70 million children in the U.S. eligible for them.

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On July 4, the federal government will begin contributing $1,000 to accounts for eligible children who are born between Jan. 1, 2025, and Dec. 31, 2028. The Trump Accounts were part of the White House’s “big, beautiful bill” legislation passed last year.  

Bessent noted how wealthy philanthropists, organizations and states can also donate to the accounts, even by contributing public stock. Last year, Michael Dell, who founded Dell Technologies, and his wife Susan Dell announced they would donate $6.25 billion to the accounts, or $250 per person.

“I would expect that we are going to see, again from these philanthropic families and institutions and companies, I would expect that we would see the lower-income profile families, actually the accounts will be topped up more,” Bessent said.

Bessent said the accounts could also build throughout adulthood and be rolled into an individual retirement account.

“We want them to really understand the power of long-term compounding,” Bessent said of the families who take part in the program. “That you’ll own a share of a company, that many people have – bank deposits. They’re used to getting interest, they’re used to paying interest. So what we want them to understand is, what does a piece of the action feel like?”

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Ukraine latest / Limits of military might / Can major powers regain dominance? : Sources & Methods

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Ukraine latest / Limits of military might / Can major powers regain dominance? : Sources & Methods

A view taken on June 24 shows a heavily damaged multi-story apartment building following a recent attack, which local Russian-installed officials called a Ukrainian drone strike, in the town of Gorlivka in the Donetsk region, Russian-controlled Ukraine, amid the ongoing Russian-Ukrainian conflict.

AFP via Getty Images


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AFP via Getty Images

Four years in and Ukraine is still giving Russia a run for its money. Four months in and Iran shows no sign of bowing to U.S. demands. 

What do Russia’s fight with Ukraine and the U.S. war with Iran tell us about the limits of military might?

Host Mary Louise Kelly speaks with NPR’s Ukraine Correspondent Joanna Kakissis about the overnight attack in Kyiv, which comes on the heels of Ukraine’s drone assaults in Moscow. NPR National Security Correspondent Greg Myre joins them to talk about what the conflicts in Ukraine
and Iran say about military might and whether major powers can regain dominance. 

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Email the show at sourcesandmethods@npr.org

NPR+ supporters hear every episode without sponsor messages and unlock access to our complete archive. Sign up at plus.npr.org.

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Newsom’s office responds to SCOTUS ruling on women’s sports as California faces ongoing trans athlete wave

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Newsom’s office responds to SCOTUS ruling on women’s sports as California faces ongoing trans athlete wave

California Gov. Gavin Newsom’s office has responded after the U.S. Supreme Court made a historic ruling on trans athletes in women’s sports on Tuesday.

The court ruled 6-3 to uphold state laws that protect women’s sports from biological male trans athletes. California is one of 23 states in the country that don’t have laws to protect women’s sports, and since 2014, has had a law in place to protect the rights of males to compete against females.

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A spokesperson for Newsom’s office said the Supreme Court ruling will not impact California’s current setup.

SUPREME COURT MAKES RULING ON TRANS ATHLETES IN WOMEN’S SPORTS

California Gov. Gavin Newsom speaks during a press conference in Hayward, California, on March 2, where he criticized President Donald Trump’s decision to strike Iran. (Tayfun Coskun/Anadolu via Getty Images)

“The Supreme Court’s decision does not affect California’s laws. The state remains committed to ensuring every Californian, including the LGBTQ community, is met with dignity and respect,” the spokesperson told Fox News Digital.

A source within Newsom’s office provided Fox News Digital a bulleted list titled “As a Governor, Governor Newsom has the strongest record in the country on protecting and expanding transgender rights.”

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The list included several bragging points, including “making it easier to update gender markers on official documents,” and “appointed multiple trans judges.”

The list concludes by pointing out, “California is one of 22 states that have laws requiring transgender students to participate in sports consistent with their gender identity. California passed this law in 2013 (AB 1266) and it was signed into law by Governor Jerry Brown.”

Newsom’s state was ravaged by a trans athlete national media crisis in May, for the second year in a row and third time in total in one year, as prominent trans athlete AB Hernandez competed in girls’ sports.

Hernandez won two track and field state titles for the second straight year. Ahead of the first round of the state tournament in early May, “Save Girls Sports” protesters led by former NCAA women’s soccer player Sophia Lorey scheduled a press conference near the competition grounds.

AB HERNANDEZ ADVANCES IN CALIFORNIA STATE CHAMPIONSHIP AS SAVE GIRLS’ SPORTS ACTIVISTS RALLY NEARBY

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A source within Newsom’s office previously addressed the press conference in the days leading up to the event in a statement provided to Fox News Digital, prompting controversy and criticism from locals.

“The Governor has said discussions on this issue should be guided by fairness, dignity, and respect. He rejects the right wing’s cynical attempt to weaponize this debate as an excuse to vilify individual kids. The Governor’s position is simple: stand with all kids and stand up to bullies,” the statement read.

The governor faced mass backlash from activists across the country for his office’s statement. The controversy only exploded the very next week when it was revealed the California Interscholastic Federation (CIF) re-implemented a pilot program that bumped every girl who finished behind the trans athlete up by one spot on the podium. The change resulted in now-infamous imagery of Hernandez sharing podium spots with the female second-place finishers.

President Donald Trump’s Department of Justice is engaged in Title IX lawsuits against education agencies in California for its policies that allow trans athletes in girls’ high school sports. The lawsuit was officially launched in July after Hernandez won two state finals in triple jump and high jump, and won second place in long jump, at last year’s championships.

Newsom previously declared that he believed males competing in girls’ sports is “deeply unfair” during an episode of his podcast with the late Charlie Kirk in March 2025.

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Then in July 2025, Newsom spoke about the issue in an interview on the “Shawn Ryan Show” saying he has been “amazingly frustrated by it” and that he regularly encounters parents who are angry about the state’s policies at his children’s soccer games.

“Every parent coming up says, ‘It’s so unfair.’ Like ‘Whoa,’ like everywhere I went, progressively-minded people, not bigots, that are champions of trans policy like I am, but didn’t like the sports. They were like ‘come on man, you got to figure this out,’” Newsom said.

Newsom added that his allies in the LGBTQ caucus were “furious” with him after he made his initial comments in March while speaking to Kirk, and even recalled an alleged conversation with President Donald Trump about it.

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“Trump is having the time of his life, and I assure you he is because we’ve had conversations on this topic,” Newsom said.

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“And now he’s suing and threatening us, and they’re just, and you know, I’m the poster child,” Newsom added. “But I do think we have to address that issue.” 

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