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US stocks stage rally as global markets await election result

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US stocks stage rally as global markets await election result

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US stocks rallied while bonds fell back as Americans headed to the polls in one of the most significant elections in recent memory, with sweeping implications for global markets.

Tuesday’s moves had echoes of the “Trump trades” of recent weeks in which investors bet on bitcoin and stocks and sold Treasuries. They had pared some of those positions on Monday following weekend polls that cast some doubt on Donald Trump’s chances of victory.

The Mexican peso, which typically weakens when Trump is seen to be doing well, hit its lowest level in two years at 20.35 against the dollar.

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“The good news is that the wait for the US election is over, the bad news is that it will be a long night for volatility,” said Bob Savage, head of markets strategy and insights at BNY, who described Tuesday’s mood as “risk on . . . but timidly given the too-close-to-call uncertainty”.

By early afternoon in New York, the blue-chip S&P 500 was up 1.1 per cent while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite had gained 1.3 per cent.

Shares in Trump’s lossmaking social media group, Trump Media & Technology, jumped 14 per cent while bitcoin gained more than 4 per cent to trade just below $70,000.

However, the US dollar, which rose in October on expectations of a Trump win, slid to a two-week low against a basket of currencies, down 0.4 per cent on the day.

Wall Street has been preparing for a long night, pausing software updates and booking hotel rooms for suburb-dwelling traders among other logistics.

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“There is a hyped-up sense of anticipation as we await the results,” said Mark Dowding, chief investment officer at RBC BlueBay Asset Management. “We all know how much is at stake on this election outcome, but until the polls close we won’t know which way to jump.”

Tuesday’s sell-off in Treasuries was boosted by unexpectedly strong US service sector data, pushing yields on benchmark 10-year notes to 4.34 per cent, up 0.03 percentage points on the day and close to Friday’s four-month peak of 4.39 per cent.

Investors are anxious that there might not be clarity on the winner of the election running into a critical couple of days for global markets, with interest rate-setting decisions from both the Federal Reserve and Bank of England due on Thursday.

William Vaughan, associate portfolio manager at Brandywine Global Investment Management, said the potential for an unclear election result by the time of the Fed meeting contributed “significant uncertainty”, highlighting the four-day wait until the Associated Press made its call on the winner of the 2020 election.

The Ice BofA Move index, a keenly watched gauge of investors’ expectations of future volatility in US Treasuries, on Monday hit its highest in more than a year as a mixture of political and interest rate uncertainty unsettled the $27tn market.

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Analysts at UBS said levels implied by options on the S&P 500 index suggested the benchmark could swing sharply at the end of the week. The cost of buying protection against swings in exchange rates such as euro-dollar has also jumped.

The knife-edge election is being viewed as a potential watershed moment by investors. If Republicans were to win the White House and both houses of Congress, investors worry that Trump’s promised mixture of tariffs and tax cuts could feed inflation and put upward pressure on interest rates.

That has led to a rally in the dollar and a rise in longer-dated Treasury yields in recent weeks.

European stock markets moved off their lows as Wall Street rallied, leaving the regional benchmark Stoxx 600 index to recover earlier losses and close flat while the UK’s FTSE 100 ended down just 0.1 per cent.

Elsewhere, UK long-term borrowing costs touched a fresh high for the year, with 10-year yields at 4.54 per cent. That topped levels reached after last week’s Budget fed concerns on government borrowing levels.

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Top Drug Regulator Is Fired From the F.D.A.

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Top Drug Regulator Is Fired From the F.D.A.

Dr. Tracy Beth Hoeg, the Food and Drug Administration’s top drug regulator, said she was fired from the agency Friday after she declined to resign.

She said she did not know who had ordered her firing or why, nor whether Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. knew of her fate. The Department of Health and Human Services did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

The departure reflected the upheaval at the F.D.A., days after the resignation of Dr. Marty Makary, the agency commissioner. Dr. Makary had become a lightning rod for critics of the agency’s decisions to reject applications for rare disease drugs and to delay a report meant to supply damaging evidence about the abortion drug mifepristone. He also spent months before his departure pushing back on the White House’s requests for him to approve more flavored vapes, the reason he ultimately cited for leaving.

Dr. Hoeg’s hiring had startled public health leaders who were familiar with her track record as a vaccine skeptic, and she played a leading role in some of the agency’s most divisive efforts during her tenure. She worked on a report that purportedly linked the deaths of children and young adults to Covid vaccines, a dossier the agency has not released publicly. She was also the co-author of a document describing Mr. Kennedy’s decision to pare the recommendations for 17 childhood vaccines down to 11.

But in an interview on Friday, Dr. Hoeg said she “stuck with the science.”

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“I am incredibly proud of the work we were doing,” Dr. Hoeg said, adding, “I’m glad that we didn’t give in to any pressures to approve drugs when it wasn’t appropriate.”

As the director of the agency’s Center for Drug Evaluation and Research, she was a political appointee in a role that had been previously occupied by career officials. An epidemiologist who was trained in the United States and Denmark, she worked on efforts to analyze drug safety and on a panel to discuss the use of serotonin reuptake inhibitors, the most widely prescribed class of antidepressants, during pregnancy. She also worked on efforts to reduce animal testing and was the agency’s liaison to an influential vaccine committee.

She made sure that her teams approved drugs only when the risk-benefit balance was favorable, she said.

The firing worsens the leadership vacuum at the F.D.A. and other agencies, with temporary leaders filling the role of commissioner, food chief and the head of the biologics center, which oversees vaccines and gene therapies. The roles of surgeon general and director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention are also unfilled.

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Supreme Court is death knell for Virginia’s Democratic-friendly congressional maps

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Supreme Court is death knell for Virginia’s Democratic-friendly congressional maps

The U.S. Supreme Court

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The U.S. Supreme Court refused Friday to allow Virginia to use a new congressional map that favored Democrats in all but one of the state’s U.S. House seats. The map was a key part of Democrats’ effort to counter the Republican redistricting wave set off by President Trump.

The new map was drawn by Democrats and approved by Virginia voters in an April referendum. But on May 8, the Supreme Court of Virginia in a 4-to-3 vote declared the referendum, and by extension the new map, null and void because lawmakers failed to follow the proper procedures to get the issue on the ballot, violating the state constitution.

Virginia Democrats and the state’s attorney general then appealed to the U.S. Supreme Court, seeking to put into effect the map approved by the voters, which yields four more likely Democratic congressional seats. In their emergency application, they argued the Virginia Supreme Court was “deeply mistaken” in its decision on “critical issues of federal law with profound practical importance to the Nation.” Further, they asserted the decision “overrode the will of the people” by ordering Virginia to “conduct its election with the congressional districts that the people rejected.”

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Republican legislators countered that it would be improper for the U.S. Supreme Court to wade into a purely state law controversy — especially since the Democrats had not raised any federal claims in the lower court.

Ultimately, the U.S. Supreme Court sided with Republicans without explanation leaving in place the state court ruling that voided the Democratic-friendly maps.

The court’s decision not to intervene was its latest in emergency requests for intervention on redistricting issues. In December, the high court OK’d Texas using a gerrymandered map that could help the GOP win five more seats in the U.S. House. In February, the court allowed California to use a voter-approved, Democratic-friendly map, adopted to offset Texas’s map. Then in March, the U.S. Supreme Court blocked the redrawing of a New York map expected to flip a Republican congressional district Democratic.

And perhaps most importantly, in April, the high court ruled that a Louisiana congressional map was a racial gerrymander and must be redrawn. That decision immediately set off a flurry of redistricting efforts, particularly in the South, where Republican legislators immediately began redrawing congressional maps to eliminate long established majority Black and Hispanic districts.

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Explosion at Lumber Mill in Searsmont, Maine, Draws Large Emergency Response

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Explosion at Lumber Mill in Searsmont, Maine, Draws Large Emergency Response

An explosion and fire drew a large emergency response on Friday to a lumber mill in the Midcoast region of Maine, officials said.

The State Police and fire marshal’s investigators responded to Robbins Lumber in Searsmont, about 72 miles northeast of Portland, said Shannon Moss, a spokeswoman for the Maine Department of Public Safety.

Mike Larrivee, the director of the Waldo County Regional Communications Center, said the number of victims was unknown, cautioning that “the information we’re getting from the scene is very vague.”

“We’ve sent every resource in the county to that area, plus surrounding counties,” he said.

Footage from the scene shared by WABI-TV showed flames burning through the roof of a large structure as heavy, dark smoke billowed skyward.

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The Associated Press reported that at least five people were injured, and that county officials were considering the incident a “mass casualty event.”

Catherine Robbins-Halsted, an owner and vice president at Robbins Lumber, told reporters at the scene that all of the company’s employees had been accounted for.

Gov. Janet T. Mills of Maine said on social media that she had been briefed on the situation and urged people to avoid the area.

“I ask Maine people to join me in keeping all those affected in their thoughts,” she said.

Representative Jared Golden, Democrat of Maine, said on social media that he was aware of the fire and explosion.

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“As my team and I seek out more information, I am praying for the safety and well-being of first responders and everyone else on-site,” he said.

This is a developing story. Check back for updates.

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