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Trump and allies have primed supporters to falsely believe he has no chance of losing
Former President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump gestures during a campaign rally in Pittsburgh, Pa., on Monday, the night before Election Day.
Charly Triballeau/AFP via Getty Images
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Charly Triballeau/AFP via Getty Images
For more 2024 election coverage from the NPR Network head to our live updates page.
It’s possible former President Donald Trump will win the election — and also quite possible he loses. But many in Trump’s orbit keep falsely telling his supporters the only way that happens is because of cheating.

Polling indicates a competitive race in seven battleground states that will decide if Trump or Vice President Harris is the next president, states where voters’ political and demographic makeups mean there are no guaranteed winners.
Trump still insists he did not lose the 2020 election, despite numerous recounts and court cases that did not find evidence of fraud. His 2024 campaign is built on that foundation, telling his supporters the only way to “Make America Great Again” in a second term is to vote so that his victory could be “too big to rig.”
A large part of Trump’s closing message in recent weeks has focused on attacking any outcome other than victory as tainted, illegitimate and fraudulent, with no proof or basis in reality.

He has regularly questioned the legality of Harris’ role as the Democratic presidential nominee, calling President Biden’s decision to end his reelection bid and her subsequent selection under Democratic Party rules a “coup.”
After his supporters launched a failed insurrection attempt at the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, Trump has still refused to say if he would accept the results of this election, win or lose.
Eric Trump and his wife, Republican National Committee Co-Chair Lara Trump high-five during a rally for former President Donald Trump in Reading, Pa., on Monday.
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Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images
Alongside the Republican National Committee, led by his daughter-in-law Lara Trump, Trump’s legal team has planted the seeds to cry foul in several key states if he loses, like Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia, filing numerous lawsuits seeking to disqualify voters and ballots or demand rule changes they say suppress Republican voters.
The final days of the campaign have seen a barrage of baseless claims about voting rules, possible election outcomes and Trump’s chances to win from a constellation of his family, friends and faithful associates.
Social media site X has been home to a proliferation of false fraud claims about the election, and the site’s owner, billionaire Elon Musk, has used his considerable platform to amplify conspiracy theories about ballot counting and other normal election procedures while misleadingly sharing early voting data to claim a “decisive Republican victory.”
On Monday, Trump’s son Donald Trump, Jr. riled up a partially empty arena in North Carolina by urging people to show up to vote en masse so “you don’t give [Democrats] a week to find that magical truck of ballots.”
Trump himself has posted online that “Pennsylvania is cheating” and often dedicates parts of his rambling rallies to accusing his opponents of cheating while bragging about often-overinflated poll numbers.
In Pittsburgh Monday night at his penultimate presidential campaign rally, Trump said he has been given “about a 96.2% chance” of winning Tuesday, of which there is no evidence.
Many factors go into a Trump loss — or win
Polling, election analysts and math suggests Trump does not have a 96.2% chance of winning enough states to be the Electoral College winner. The reason the race is instead very close is not fraud, but rather several potential warning signs with his third presidential campaign and voters’ reaction to it.
In several of the swing states, there are lingering effects from the public and private pressure campaign he exerted to get Republican lawmakers and officials to overturn his 2020 defeat. The 2022 midterms saw several high-profile Trump-backed candidates who embraced the false fraud claims falter in what otherwise should have been a good year for Republicans.

His feuds with Republicans who defended the election results led to a notable loss of support among independent voters and conservatives who oppose his candidacy.
Efforts the RNC undertook to make inroads with nonwhite voters in the last election cycle have been abandoned in favor of beefed-up election integrity teams. As a result, much of the get-out-the-vote operation has been outsourced to inexperienced third parties.
After the Supreme Court overturned the longstanding Roe v. Wade decision that guaranteed a national right to obtain abortion care, Republicans have lost ground with women, especially in states that have passed strict abortion bans in the aftermath of that decision.
In many states, Trump’s plea for Republicans to “bank your vote” and participate in early voting appears to have paid off, but election data also shows a sizable share of those voters shifted from Election Day. That could potentially lead to lower Republican turnout Tuesday as part of an overall shift in voter behavior since the pandemic-era 2020 presidential race.
All of these factors could lead to a Trump loss when all the votes are counted, or be footnotes if he wins, but none of them involve the widespread voter fraud he has primed his supporters to be ready for, without cause.
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Tornadoes hit Illinois, Indiana and Texas as severe storms sweep US
A series of tornadoes hit parts of Texas, Illinois, and Indiana late Tuesday and overnight, as forecasters warn that the threat of severe weather, including flooding, will continue on Wednesday for tens of millions of people from Texas to Michigan.
At least four tornado touchdowns were reported in eastern Illinois, the National Weather Service (NWS) said, leaving a trail of damage stretching into Indiana, where at least two people were killed.
Video of a separate tornado in Taylor county, central Texas, on Tuesday was posted to weather.com. Officials there reported 60mph wind gusts and “baseball-sized” hail.
A search continued on Wednesday for possible victims of a supercell of storms that followed a path from Kankakee county, Illinois, into Indiana late on Tuesday. Rob Churchill, chief of the Lake Township fire department in Indiana, said in a video on Facebook that the small town of Lake Village had taken “a direct hit”.
“We have multiple homes destroyed, please stay away from the area,” he said.
Fire department officials said at an early morning Wednesday press conference that there were two fatalities, WTHR News, an NBC affiliate, reported. Details were not immediately available.
Shannon Cothran, sheriff of Newton county in Indiana, said in a separate Facebook video that the immediate threat of dangerous weather had passed, but first responders were faced with challenging circumstances as they dealt with the storm’s aftermath.
“[There’s] a lot of damage. Please do not come here. Do not try to help right now. We’ve got a lot of first responders out here doing their job, just give us some room,” he said.
The tornadoes in parts of Illinois and Indiana downed trees and power lines in an area south of Chicago, and overwhelmed 911 operators, officials said. The Kankakee county sheriff’s office said one tornado touched down near the Kankakee fairgrounds before moving north-east into Aroma park, where it caused extensive damage.
JB Pritzker, the Democratic Illinois governor, said in a post on X early Wednesday that he was briefed on the storm and tornado damage and that the state’s emergency management agency was in contact with local officials.
“Keeping in our thoughts all Illinoisans impacted by the severe weather – we’ll be here to help them recover,” he said.
Severe storms dumping rain and hail in parts of the midwest were threatening to bring intense tornadoes, damaging winds and very large hail from the southern plains to the southern Great Lakes, according to the NWS. States from Oklahoma to Michigan were under tornado watches.
Andrew Lyons, a meteorologist with the weather service’s storm prediction center, told the Associated Press that the exact number of tornado touchdowns would not be known until after officials conducted damage assessments.
He described it as a fairly typical early spring strong storm system that was expected to continue to move east and northeast towards the Atlantic coast on Wednesday, likely bringing more severe weather, he said.
Brandon Buckingham, an AccuWeather meteorologist, said at least 10 tornadoes were spotted in Illinois, Indiana and Texas.
“There were nearly 200 filtered reports of severe weather spanning more than 2,500 miles from Texas to Michigan,” he said in a post on the weather service’s website.
The forecaster said the chain of storms would peak midweek and “could become the most widespread and impactful severe weather outbreak so far this year”.
The severe weather could reach Washington DC by Wednesday afternoon, CBS News reported, bringing new threats of damaging winds and tornadoes. A line of storms was forecast to sweep east and move into Ohio and Tennessee, including the cities of Cincinnati, Memphis and Nashville, it said.
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Wheelchair curler Steve Emt’s path from drunk driver to three-time Paralympian
American Steve Emt competes in Sunday’s mixed doubles match against Italy, which the U.S. won.
Maja Hitij/Getty Images
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Maja Hitij/Getty Images
Anyone watching the Winter Paralympics has probably taken note of Steve Emt, who — along with Laura Dwyer — is representing Team USA in the Games’ first-ever mixed doubles event.
Their performance is one thing: The pair notched three dramatic, back-to-back wins in the round-robin tournament to reach the semifinals, marking the first time the U.S. has qualified for a medal round in wheelchair curling since the 2010 Paralympics.

After losing to Korea in the semifinals, Emt and Dwyer will face Latvia in the bronze medal match on Tuesday, in the hopes of winning the U.S. its first Paralympic medal in wheelchair curling.
But it’s their teamwork and attitude on ice that really set them apart. Emt, in particular, has charmed the internet, with his booming baritone delivering a steady stream of encouragement to his doubles partner and demands to the granite stones they’re sliding (“curl!” “sit!”).
“I have three older siblings. I was always on the basketball court getting beat up by them, so I had to assert myself on the court, around the kitchen table, everything,” he said when asked about his deep voice this week.
Steve Emt and Laura Dwyer have made sure to celebrate their wins, of which there have been many throughout this wheelchair curling mixed doubles round-robin tournament.
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Maja Hitij/Getty Images
While Emt, 56, is competing in a new event, he’s no stranger to the sport: The 10-time national champion and three-time Paralympian is the most decorated Paralympic curler in U.S. history.
But he didn’t know what curling was until he got recruited off the street just over a decade ago.
Emt, who is 6 feet, 5 inches tall, was enjoying a day in Cape Cod, Mass., in 2013 when a stranger with slicked-back hair approached and asked if he was local. Emt replied that he lived in Connecticut and suspiciously asked why.

“He said, ‘Well, I train with the Paralympic rowing team here in the Cape. I saw you pushing up the hill back there. With your build, I could make you an Olympian in a year,’” Emt recalled, referring to his wheelchair. “And I heard ‘Olympics,’ I’m like: Let’s go. What the hell is curling?”
After their conversation, Emt drove home and did some research, confirming that curling was not related to weightlifting, as he originally suspected.
“I went back two weeks later and I threw my first stone, and it just bit me,” he said.
Before long, Emt was making the two-and-a-half-hour drive to Massachusetts to spend the weekend training with that stranger-turned-coach, Tony Colacchio. He made the U.S. wheelchair curling team in 2014 and competed at his first world championship in 2015. Emt made his Paralympic debut in Pyeongchang in 2018, five years after that fateful encounter.
Emt, speaking to reporters in October, said the sport of curling has changed him as a person, mellowing him out. But the existence of the sport as a competitive outlet for athletes with disabilities changed his life.

Emt had been an all-star high school athlete, an Army West Point cadet and a UConn basketball walk-on before a drunk driving incident paralyzed him from the waist down at 25 years old.
“I’m a jock … I need to compete, and I didn’t have anything going on in my life,” Emt said. “Seventeen years after my crash, I had a hole, and then [Colacchio] came along and stalked me into the sport.”
By that point, Emt had spent years working as a middle school math teacher, a high school basketball coach and a motivational speaker. The latter has been his full-time job for almost a decade, taking him to over 100 schools across the country each year. He tells those teenagers about the chance Colacchio took on him, encouraging them to “be a Tony.”
“Go sit with that kid at lunch that’s sitting alone … smile [at] somebody in a hallway, get your heads out of your phones, get your heads out of the sand,” he continued. “We’re all going through something … and a simple ‘hello’ or ‘good morning,’ it could change their day. It could change somebody’s life.”
Why Emt now shares his story
This is the third Paralympics for Emt, who is already eyeing Salt Lake City 2034.
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Mattia Ozbot/Getty Images
Emt wasn’t always so willing to open up. For the first half a year after his 1995 crash, he told everyone a deer had run in front of his car rather than admit he had gotten behind the wheel drunk.
“I was lying to myself, I was lying to everybody around me,” he said. “I didn’t want kids to look at me in my hometown, in the state, and everyone around the country, as a drunk driver. I wanted them to look at me as a stud athlete and a great person.”
Emt had been a “stud athlete”: His talents in high school basketball, soccer and baseball made him a star in his hometown of Hebron, Conn., and earned him a spot on the basketball team at West Point.
But he dropped out two years later, after his father’s sudden death from a heart attack. He went home to Connecticut and eventually enrolled at UConn, where he walked on to its storied basketball team, joining future NBA greats like Donyell Marshall. Emt says, with a chuckle, that he had 38.7 seconds of playing time in his two years.
Emt was wearing his Big East championship jacket the night of his 1995 accident, which he says left him for dead on the side of the highway. When he woke up from a coma a few days later, he learned he would never walk again.
And he didn’t want to tell people why, until a newspaper reporter approached him six months later wanting to tell his story — and encouraged him to be honest. He said the opportunity to “come clean” helped him accept what he’d done and forgive himself.
“That’s my label: Yeah I’m a curler, yeah I’m a speaker, yeah I’m a drunk driver,” he said. “I’m in a wheelchair because of a drunk driving crash, and I want you to know it and I want you to learn from me.”
Emt first got into motivational speaking about eight months after his accident, and has been doing it ever since. He calls it his therapy.

He says that and curling — which is about shaking hands with competitors instead of smack-talking them — has helped him slow down and appreciate the little things. Relocating to Wisconsin and the chiller pace of Midwest life has also helped. And he says he cherishes the platform that curling has given him.
“I want people to know: ‘Hey, when you’re ready to talk, I’m here for you.’ This is what I do, from my speaking to my curling, whatever it is, there are so many opportunities to be successful again,” he said. “When you wake up and you’re told you’re never going to walk again, it’s like, what do I do now? … And I just want people to know that there are so many avenues out there, so many things to do.”
Emt, the oldest Paralympian on Team USA, originally aimed to make it to three Games. But he’s now eyeing even more, as he’d like to compete on home turf in Salt Lake City in 2034 (two Games away).
“I’m going to be like 90 years old competing at the Paralympics,” he laughed.
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Map: 2.3-Magnitude Earthquake Reported North of New York City
Note: Map shows the area with a shake intensity of 3 or greater, which U.S.G.S. defines as “weak,” though the earthquake may be felt outside the areas shown. The New York Times
A minor, 2.3-magnitude earthquake struck about 12 miles north of New York City on Tuesday, according to the United States Geological Survey.
The temblor happened at 10:17 a.m. Eastern in Sleepy Hollow, N.Y., data from the agency shows.
The Westchester County emergency services department said in a statement that it had not received any reports of damage.
As seismologists review available data, they may revise the earthquake’s reported magnitude. Additional information collected about the earthquake may also prompt U.S.G.S. scientists to update the shake-severity map.
Source: United States Geological Survey | Notes: Shaking categories are based on the Modified Mercalli Intensity scale. When aftershock data is available, the corresponding maps and charts include earthquakes within 100 miles and seven days of the initial quake. All times above are Eastern. Shake data is as of Tuesday, March 10 at 10:30 a.m. Eastern. Aftershocks data is as of Tuesday, March 10 at 2:18 p.m. Eastern.
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