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Trump and allies have primed supporters to falsely believe he has no chance of losing
Former President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump gestures during a campaign rally in Pittsburgh, Pa., on Monday, the night before Election Day.
Charly Triballeau/AFP via Getty Images
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Charly Triballeau/AFP via Getty Images
For more 2024 election coverage from the NPR Network head to our live updates page.
It’s possible former President Donald Trump will win the election — and also quite possible he loses. But many in Trump’s orbit keep falsely telling his supporters the only way that happens is because of cheating.

Polling indicates a competitive race in seven battleground states that will decide if Trump or Vice President Harris is the next president, states where voters’ political and demographic makeups mean there are no guaranteed winners.
Trump still insists he did not lose the 2020 election, despite numerous recounts and court cases that did not find evidence of fraud. His 2024 campaign is built on that foundation, telling his supporters the only way to “Make America Great Again” in a second term is to vote so that his victory could be “too big to rig.”
A large part of Trump’s closing message in recent weeks has focused on attacking any outcome other than victory as tainted, illegitimate and fraudulent, with no proof or basis in reality.

He has regularly questioned the legality of Harris’ role as the Democratic presidential nominee, calling President Biden’s decision to end his reelection bid and her subsequent selection under Democratic Party rules a “coup.”
After his supporters launched a failed insurrection attempt at the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, Trump has still refused to say if he would accept the results of this election, win or lose.
Eric Trump and his wife, Republican National Committee Co-Chair Lara Trump high-five during a rally for former President Donald Trump in Reading, Pa., on Monday.
Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images
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Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images
Alongside the Republican National Committee, led by his daughter-in-law Lara Trump, Trump’s legal team has planted the seeds to cry foul in several key states if he loses, like Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia, filing numerous lawsuits seeking to disqualify voters and ballots or demand rule changes they say suppress Republican voters.
The final days of the campaign have seen a barrage of baseless claims about voting rules, possible election outcomes and Trump’s chances to win from a constellation of his family, friends and faithful associates.
Social media site X has been home to a proliferation of false fraud claims about the election, and the site’s owner, billionaire Elon Musk, has used his considerable platform to amplify conspiracy theories about ballot counting and other normal election procedures while misleadingly sharing early voting data to claim a “decisive Republican victory.”
On Monday, Trump’s son Donald Trump, Jr. riled up a partially empty arena in North Carolina by urging people to show up to vote en masse so “you don’t give [Democrats] a week to find that magical truck of ballots.”
Trump himself has posted online that “Pennsylvania is cheating” and often dedicates parts of his rambling rallies to accusing his opponents of cheating while bragging about often-overinflated poll numbers.
In Pittsburgh Monday night at his penultimate presidential campaign rally, Trump said he has been given “about a 96.2% chance” of winning Tuesday, of which there is no evidence.
Many factors go into a Trump loss — or win
Polling, election analysts and math suggests Trump does not have a 96.2% chance of winning enough states to be the Electoral College winner. The reason the race is instead very close is not fraud, but rather several potential warning signs with his third presidential campaign and voters’ reaction to it.
In several of the swing states, there are lingering effects from the public and private pressure campaign he exerted to get Republican lawmakers and officials to overturn his 2020 defeat. The 2022 midterms saw several high-profile Trump-backed candidates who embraced the false fraud claims falter in what otherwise should have been a good year for Republicans.

His feuds with Republicans who defended the election results led to a notable loss of support among independent voters and conservatives who oppose his candidacy.
Efforts the RNC undertook to make inroads with nonwhite voters in the last election cycle have been abandoned in favor of beefed-up election integrity teams. As a result, much of the get-out-the-vote operation has been outsourced to inexperienced third parties.
After the Supreme Court overturned the longstanding Roe v. Wade decision that guaranteed a national right to obtain abortion care, Republicans have lost ground with women, especially in states that have passed strict abortion bans in the aftermath of that decision.
In many states, Trump’s plea for Republicans to “bank your vote” and participate in early voting appears to have paid off, but election data also shows a sizable share of those voters shifted from Election Day. That could potentially lead to lower Republican turnout Tuesday as part of an overall shift in voter behavior since the pandemic-era 2020 presidential race.
All of these factors could lead to a Trump loss when all the votes are counted, or be footnotes if he wins, but none of them involve the widespread voter fraud he has primed his supporters to be ready for, without cause.
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Trump administration can’t block child care, other program money for 5 states: Judge
A federal judge ruled Friday that President Donald Trump’s administration cannot block federal money for child care subsidies and other programs aimed at supporting needy children and their families from flowing to five Democratic-led states for now.
The states of California, Colorado, Illinois, Minnesota and New York argued that a policy announced Tuesday to freeze funds for three grant programs is having an immediate impact on them and creating “operational chaos.” In court filings and a hearing earlier Friday, the states contended that the government did not have a legal reason for holding back the money from those states.
The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services said it was pausing the funding because it had “reason to believe” the states were granting benefits to people in the country illegally, though it did not provide evidence or explain why it was targeting those states and not others.
The programs are the Child Care and Development Fund, which subsidizes child care for children from low-income families; the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families program, which provides cash assistance and job training; and the Social Services Block Grant, a smaller fund that provides money for a variety of programs.
The five states say they receive a total of more than $10 billion a year from the programs.
U.S. District Judge Arun Subramanian, who was nominated to the bench by former President Joe Biden, did not rule on the legality of the funding freeze, but he said the five states had met a legal threshold “to protect the status quo” for at least 14 days while arguments are made in court.
The government had requested reams of data from the five states, including the names and Social Security numbers of everyone who received benefits from some of the programs since 2022.
The states argue that the effort is unconstitutional and is intended to go after Trump’s political adversaries rather than to stamp out fraud in government programs — something the states say they already do.
Jessica Ranucci, a lawyer in the New York Attorney General’s office, said in the Friday hearing, which was conducted by telephone, that at least four of the states had already had money delayed after requesting it. She said that if the states can’t get child care funds, there will be immediate uncertainty for providers and families who rely on the programs.
A lawyer for the federal government, Kamika Shaw, said it was her understanding that the money had not stopped flowing to states.
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National Park Service will void passes with stickers over Trump’s face
The Interior Department’s new “America the Beautiful” annual pass for U.S. national parks.
Department of Interior
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Department of Interior
The National Park Service has updated its policy to discourage visitors from defacing a picture of President Trump on this year’s pass.
The use of an image of Trump on the 2026 pass — rather than the usual picture of nature — has sparked a backlash, sticker protests, and a lawsuit from a conservation group.
The $80 annual America the Beautiful pass gives visitors access to more than 2,000 federal recreation sites. Since 2004, the pass has typically showcased sweeping landscapes or iconic wildlife, selected through a public photo contest. Past winners have featured places like Arches National Park in Utah and images of bison roaming the plains.

Instead, of a picture of nature, this year’s design shows side-by-side portraits of Presidents George Washington and Trump. The new design has drawn criticism from parkgoers and ignited a wave of “do-it-yourself” resistance.
Photos circulating online show that many national park cardholders have covered the image of Trump’s face with stickers of wildlife, landscapes, and yellow smiley faces, while some have completely blocked out the whole card. The backlash has also inspired a growing sticker campaign.
Jenny McCarty, a longtime park volunteer and graphic designer, began selling custom stickers meant to fit directly over Trump’s face — with 100% of proceeds going to conservation nonprofits. “We made our first donation of $16,000 in December,” McCarty said. “The power of community is incredible.”
McCarty says the sticker movement is less about politics and more about preserving the neutrality of public lands. “The Interior’s new guidance only shows they continue to disregard how strongly people feel about keeping politics out of national parks,” she said.
The National Park Service card policy was updated this week to say that passes may no longer be valid if they’ve been “defaced or altered.” The change, which was revealed in an internal email to National Park Service staff obtained by SFGATE, comes just as the sticker movement has gained traction across social media.
In a statement to NPR, the Interior Department said there was no new policy. Interagency passes have always been void if altered, as stated on the card itself. The agency said the recent update was meant to clarify that rule and help staff deal with confusion from visitors.
The Park Service has long said passes can be voided if the signature strip is altered, but the updated guidance now explicitly includes stickers or markings on the front of the card.
It will be left to the discretion of park service officials to determine whether a pass has been “defaced” or not. The update means park officials now have the leeway to reject a pass if a sticker leaves behind residue, even if the image underneath is intact.
In December, conservation group the Center for Biological Diversity filed a lawsuit in Washington, D.C., opposing the new pass design.

The group argues that the image violates a federal requirement that the annual America the Beautiful pass display a winning photograph from a national parks photo contest. The 2026 winning image was a picture of Glacier National Park.
“This is part of a larger pattern of Trump branding government materials with his name and image,” Kierán Suckling, the executive director of the Center for Biological Diversity, told NPR. “But this kind of cartoonish authoritarianism won’t fly in the United States.”
The lawsuit asks a federal court to pull the current pass design and replace it with the original contest winner — the Glacier National Park image. It also seeks to block the government from featuring a president’s face on future passes.
The America the Beautiful National Parks Annual Pass for 2025, showing one of the natural images which used to adorn the pass. Its picture, of a Roseate Spoonbill taken at Everglades National Park, was taken by Michael Zheng.
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Department of Interior
Not everyone sees a problem with the new design. Vince Vanata, the GOP chairman of Park County, Wyoming, told the Cowboy State Daily that Trump detractors should “suck it up” and accept the park passes, saying they are a fitting tribute to America’s 250th birthday this July 4.
“The 250th anniversary of our country only comes once. This pass is showing the first president of the United States and the current president of the United States,” Vanata said.
But for many longtime visitors, the backlash goes beyond design.

Erin Quinn Gery, who buys an annual pass each year, compared the image to “a mug shot slapped onto natural beauty.”
She also likened the decision to self-glorification: “It’s akin to throwing yourself a parade or putting yourself on currency,” she said. “Let someone else tell you you’re great — or worth celebrating and commemorating.”
When asked if she plans to remove her protest sticker, Gery replied: “I’ll take the sticker off my pass after Trump takes his name off the Kennedy Center.”
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Federal immigration agents shoot 2 people in Portland, Oregon, police say
PORTLAND, Ore. (AP) — Federal immigration officers shot and wounded two people in a vehicle outside a hospital in Portland, Oregon, on Thursday, a day after an officer shot and killed a driver in Minnesota, authorities said.
The Department of Homeland Security described the vehicle’s passenger as “a Venezuelan illegal alien affiliated with the transnational Tren de Aragua prostitution ring” who had been involved in a recent shooting in Portland. When agents identified themselves to the vehicle occupants Thursday afternoon, the driver tried to run them over, the department said in a written statement.
“Fearing for his life and safety, an agent fired a defensive shot,” the statement said. “The driver drove off with the passenger, fleeing the scene.”
There was no immediate independent corroboration of those events or of any gang affiliation of the vehicle’s occupants. During prior shootings involving agents involved in President Donald Trump’s surge of immigration enforcement in U.S. cities, including Wednesday’s shooting by an Immigration and Customs Enforcement officer in Minneapolis, video evidence cast doubt on the administration’s initial descriptions of what prompted the shootings.
READ MORE: What we know so far about the ICE shooting in Minneapolis
According to the the Portland Police bureau, officers initially responded to a report of a shooting near a hospital at about 2:18 p.m.
A few minutes later, police received information that a man who had been shot was asking for help in a residential area a couple of miles away. Officers then responded there and found the two people with apparent gunshot wounds. Officers determined they were injured in the shooting with federal agents, police said.
Their conditions were not immediately known. Council President Elana Pirtle-Guiney said during a Portland city council meeting that Thursday’s shooting took place in the eastern part of the city and that two Portlanders were wounded.
“As far as we know both of these individuals are still alive and we are hoping for more positive updates throughout the afternoon,” she said.
The shooting escalates tensions in an city that has long had a contentious relationship with President Donald Trump, including Trump’s recent, failed effort to deploy National Guard troops in the city.
Portland police secured both the scene of the shooting and the area where the wounded people were found pending investigation.
“We are still in the early stages of this incident,” said Chief Bob Day. “We understand the heightened emotion and tension many are feeling in the wake of the shooting in Minneapolis, but I am asking the community to remain calm as we work to learn more.”
Portland Mayor Keith Wilson and the city council called on U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement to end all operations in Oregon’s largest city until a full investigation is completed.
“We stand united as elected officials in saying that we cannot sit by while constitutional protections erode and bloodshed mounts,” a joint statement said. “Portland is not a ‘training ground’ for militarized agents, and the ‘full force’ threatened by the administration has deadly consequences.”
The city officials said “federal militarization undermines effective, community‑based public safety, and it runs counter to the values that define our region. We’ll use every legal and legislative tool available to protect our residents’ civil and human rights.”
They urged residents to show up with “calm and purpose during this difficult time.”
“We respond with clarity, unity, and a commitment to justice,” the statement said. “We must stand together to protect Portland.”
U.S. Sen. Jeff Merkley, an Oregon Democrat, urged any protesters to remain peaceful.
“Trump wants to generate riots,” he said in a post on the X social media platform. “Don’t take the bait.”
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