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'The big one': Researchers gain clearest picture yet of fault that threatens the Pacific Northwest

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'The big one': Researchers gain clearest picture yet of fault that threatens the Pacific Northwest

A silent colossus lurks off the Pacific coast, threatening hundreds of miles of coastline with tsunamis and devastating earthquakes.

For decades, scientists have warned about the potential of the Cascadia Subduction Zone, a megathrust fault that runs offshore along the coast from northern Vancouver Island to Cape Mendocino, California. When the fault — or even a portion of it — next snaps, it will reshape life in Oregon, Washington and Northern California. 

Of particular concern are signals of massive earthquakes in the region’s geologic history. Many researchers have chased clues of the last “big one”: an 8.7-magnitude earthquake in 1700. They’ve pieced together the event’s history using centuries-old records of tsunamis, Native American oral histories, physical evidence in ghost forests drowned by saltwater and limited maps of the fault. 

But no one had mapped the fault structure comprehensively — until now. A study published Friday in the journal Science Advances describes data gathered during a 41-day research voyage in which a vessel trailed a miles-long cable along the fault to listen to the seafloor and piece together an image.

The team completed a detailed map of more than 550 miles of the subduction zone, down to the Oregon-California border.

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Their work will give modelers a sharper view of the possible impacts of a megathrust earthquake there — the term for a quake that occurs in a subduction zone, where one tectonic plate is thrust under another. It will also provide planners a closer, localized look at risks to communities along the Pacific Northwest coast and could help redefine earthquake building standards. 

“It’s like having coke-bottle glasses on and then you remove the glasses and you have the right prescription,” said Suzanne Carbotte, a lead author of the paper and a marine geophysicist and research professor at Columbia University’s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory. “We had a very fuzzy low-resolution view before.”

The scientists found that the subduction zone is much more complex than they previously understood: It is divided into four segments that the researchers believe could rupture independently of one another or together all at once. The segments have different types of rock and varying seismic characteristics — meaning some could be more dangerous than others. 

Earthquake and tsunami modelers are beginning to assess how the new data affects earthquake scenarios for the Pacific Northwest. 

Kelin Wang, a research scientist at the Geological Survey of Canada who was not involved in the study, said his team, which focuses on earthquake hazard and tsunami risk, is already using the data to inform projections. 

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“The accuracy and this resolution is truly unprecedented. And it’s an amazing data set,” said Wang, who is also an adjunct professor at the University of Victoria in British Columbia. “It just allows us to do a better job to assess the risk and have information for the building codes and zoning.” 

Harold Tobin, a co-author of the paper and the director of the Pacific Northwest Seismic Network, said that although the data will help fine-tune projections, it doesn’t change a tough-to-swallow reality of living in the Pacific Northwest.

“We have the potential for earthquakes and tsunamis as large as the biggest ones we’ve experienced on the planet,” said Tobin, who is also a University of Washington professor. “Cascadia seems capable of generating a magnitude 9 or a little smaller or a little bigger.” 

A quake that powerful could cause shaking that lasts about five minutes and generate tsunami waves up to 80 feet tall. It would damage well over half a million buildings, according to emergency planning documents. 

Neither Oregon nor Washington is sufficiently prepared.

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To map the subduction zone, researchers at sea performed active source seismic imaging, a technique that sends sound to the ocean floor and then processes the echoes that return. The method is often used for oil and gas exploration. 

They towed a 9-plus-mile-long cable, called a streamer, behind the boat, which used 1,200 hydrophones to capture returning echoes. 

“That gives us a picture of what the subsurface looks like,” Carbotte said.

The research vessel Marcus Langseth docks in Seattle after a 41-day expedition along the Pacific coastline. The ship allowed researchers to map the Cascadia Subduction Zone.Courtesy Harold Tobin

Trained marine mammal observers alerted the crew to any sign of whales or other animals; the sound generated with this kind of technology can be disruptive and harm marine creatures. 

Carbotte said the new research makes it more clear that the entire Cascadia fault might not rupture at once.  

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“The next earthquake that happens at Cascadia could be rupturing just one of these segments or it could be rupturing the whole margin,” Carbotte said, adding that several individual segments are thought to be capable of producing at least magnitude-8 earthquakes. 


Over the past century, scientists have only observed five magnitude-9.0 or higher earthquakes — all megathrust temblors like the one predicted for the Cascadia Subduction Zone. 

Scientists pieced together an understanding of the last such Cascadia quake, in 1700, in part via Japanese records of an unusual orphan tsunami that was not preceded by shaking there. 

“It requires an 8.7 to get a tsunami all the way to Japan,” Tobin said.

The people who recorded the incident in Japan couldn’t have known that the ground had shaken an ocean away, in the present-day United States. 

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Today, the Cascadia Subduction Zone remains eerily quiet. In other subduction zones, scientists often observe small earthquakes frequently, which makes the area easier to map, according to Carbotte. That’s not the case here. 

Scientists have a handful of theories about why: Wang said the zone may be becoming quieter as the fault accumulates stress. And now, we’re probably nearing due. 

“The recurrent interval for this subduction zone for big events is on the order of 500 years,” Wang said. “It’s hard to know exactly when it will happen, but certainly if you compare this to other subduction zones, it is quite late.”

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Tornadoes hit Illinois, Indiana and Texas as severe storms sweep US

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Tornadoes hit Illinois, Indiana and Texas as severe storms sweep US

A series of tornadoes hit parts of Texas, Illinois, and Indiana late Tuesday and overnight, as forecasters warn that the threat of severe weather, including flooding, will continue on Wednesday for tens of millions of people from Texas to Michigan.

At least four tornado touchdowns were reported in eastern Illinois, the National Weather Service (NWS) said, leaving a trail of damage stretching into Indiana, where at least two people were killed.

Video of a separate tornado in Taylor county, central Texas, on Tuesday was posted to weather.com. Officials there reported 60mph wind gusts and “baseball-sized” hail.

A search continued on Wednesday for possible victims of a supercell of storms that followed a path from Kankakee county, Illinois, into Indiana late on Tuesday. Rob Churchill, chief of the Lake Township fire department in Indiana, said in a video on Facebook that the small town of Lake Village had taken “a direct hit”.

“We have multiple homes destroyed, please stay away from the area,” he said.

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Fire department officials said at an early morning Wednesday press conference that there were two fatalities, WTHR News, an NBC affiliate, reported. Details were not immediately available.

Shannon Cothran, sheriff of Newton county in Indiana, said in a separate Facebook video that the immediate threat of dangerous weather had passed, but first responders were faced with challenging circumstances as they dealt with the storm’s aftermath.

“[There’s] a lot of damage. Please do not come here. Do not try to help right now. We’ve got a lot of first responders out here doing their job, just give us some room,” he said.

The tornadoes in parts of Illinois and Indiana downed trees and power lines in an area south of Chicago, and overwhelmed 911 operators, officials said. The Kankakee county sheriff’s office said one tornado touched down near the Kankakee fairgrounds before moving north-east into Aroma park, where it caused extensive damage.

JB Pritzker, the Democratic Illinois governor, said in a post on X early Wednesday that he was briefed on the storm and tornado damage and that the state’s emergency management agency was in contact with local officials.

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“Keeping in our thoughts all Illinoisans impacted by the severe weather – we’ll be here to help them recover,” he said.

Severe storms dumping rain and hail in parts of the midwest were threatening to bring intense tornadoes, damaging winds and very large hail from the southern plains to the southern Great Lakes, according to the NWS. States from Oklahoma to Michigan were under tornado watches.

Andrew Lyons, a meteorologist with the weather service’s storm prediction center, told the Associated Press that the exact number of tornado touchdowns would not be known until after officials conducted damage assessments.

He described it as a fairly typical early spring strong storm system that was expected to continue to move east and northeast towards the Atlantic coast on Wednesday, likely bringing more severe weather, he said.

Brandon Buckingham, an AccuWeather meteorologist, said at least 10 tornadoes were spotted in Illinois, Indiana and Texas.

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“There were nearly 200 filtered reports of severe weather spanning more than 2,500 miles from Texas to Michigan,” he said in a post on the weather service’s website.

The forecaster said the chain of storms would peak midweek and “could become the most widespread and impactful severe weather outbreak so far this year”.

The severe weather could reach Washington DC by Wednesday afternoon, CBS News reported, bringing new threats of damaging winds and tornadoes. A line of storms was forecast to sweep east and move into Ohio and Tennessee, including the cities of Cincinnati, Memphis and Nashville, it said.

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Wheelchair curler Steve Emt’s path from drunk driver to three-time Paralympian

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Wheelchair curler Steve Emt’s path from drunk driver to three-time Paralympian

American Steve Emt competes in Sunday’s mixed doubles match against Italy, which the U.S. won.

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Anyone watching the Winter Paralympics has probably taken note of Steve Emt, who — along with Laura Dwyer — is representing Team USA in the Games’ first-ever mixed doubles event.

Their performance is one thing: The pair notched three dramatic, back-to-back wins in the round-robin tournament to reach the semifinals, marking the first time the U.S. has qualified for a medal round in wheelchair curling since the 2010 Paralympics.

After losing to Korea in the semifinals, Emt and Dwyer will face Latvia in the bronze medal match on Tuesday, in the hopes of winning the U.S. its first Paralympic medal in wheelchair curling.

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But it’s their teamwork and attitude on ice that really set them apart. Emt, in particular, has charmed the internet, with his booming baritone delivering a steady stream of encouragement to his doubles partner and demands to the granite stones they’re sliding (“curl!” “sit!”).

“I have three older siblings. I was always on the basketball court getting beat up by them, so I had to assert myself on the court, around the kitchen table, everything,” he said when asked about his deep voice this week.

Steve Emt and Laura Dwyer celebrate during a match this week.

Steve Emt and Laura Dwyer have made sure to celebrate their wins, of which there have been many throughout this wheelchair curling mixed doubles round-robin tournament.

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While Emt, 56, is competing in a new event, he’s no stranger to the sport: The 10-time national champion and three-time Paralympian is the most decorated Paralympic curler in U.S. history.

But he didn’t know what curling was until he got recruited off the street just over a decade ago.

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Emt, who is 6 feet, 5 inches tall, was enjoying a day in Cape Cod, Mass., in 2013 when a stranger with slicked-back hair approached and asked if he was local. Emt replied that he lived in Connecticut and suspiciously asked why.

“He said, ‘Well, I train with the Paralympic rowing team here in the Cape. I saw you pushing up the hill back there. With your build, I could make you an Olympian in a year,’” Emt recalled, referring to his wheelchair. “And I heard ‘Olympics,’ I’m like: Let’s go. What the hell is curling?”

After their conversation, Emt drove home and did some research, confirming that curling was not related to weightlifting, as he originally suspected.

“I went back two weeks later and I threw my first stone, and it just bit me,” he said.

Before long, Emt was making the two-and-a-half-hour drive to Massachusetts to spend the weekend training with that stranger-turned-coach, Tony Colacchio. He made the U.S. wheelchair curling team in 2014 and competed at his first world championship in 2015. Emt made his Paralympic debut in Pyeongchang in 2018, five years after that fateful encounter.

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Emt, speaking to reporters in October, said the sport of curling has changed him as a person, mellowing him out. But the existence of the sport as a competitive outlet for athletes with disabilities changed his life.

Emt had been an all-star high school athlete, an Army West Point cadet and a UConn basketball walk-on before a drunk driving incident paralyzed him from the waist down at 25 years old.

“I’m a jock … I need to compete, and I didn’t have anything going on in my life,” Emt said. “Seventeen years after my crash, I had a hole, and then [Colacchio] came along and stalked me into the sport.”

By that point, Emt had spent years working as a middle school math teacher, a high school basketball coach and a motivational speaker. The latter has been his full-time job for almost a decade, taking him to over 100 schools across the country each year. He tells those teenagers about the chance Colacchio took on him, encouraging them to “be a Tony.”

“Go sit with that kid at lunch that’s sitting alone … smile [at] somebody in a hallway, get your heads out of your phones, get your heads out of the sand,” he continued. “We’re all going through something … and a simple ‘hello’ or ‘good morning,’ it could change their day. It could change somebody’s life.”

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Why Emt now shares his story 

This is the third Paralympics for Emt, who is already eyeing Salt Lake City 20

This is the third Paralympics for Emt, who is already eyeing Salt Lake City 2034.

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Emt wasn’t always so willing to open up. For the first half a year after his 1995 crash, he told everyone a deer had run in front of his car rather than admit he had gotten behind the wheel drunk.

“I was lying to myself, I was lying to everybody around me,” he said. “I didn’t want kids to look at me in my hometown, in the state, and everyone around the country, as a drunk driver. I wanted them to look at me as a stud athlete and a great person.”

Emt had been a “stud athlete”: His talents in high school basketball, soccer and baseball made him a star in his hometown of Hebron, Conn., and earned him a spot on the basketball team at West Point.

But he dropped out two years later, after his father’s sudden death from a heart attack. He went home to Connecticut and eventually enrolled at UConn, where he walked on to its storied basketball team, joining future NBA greats like Donyell Marshall. Emt says, with a chuckle, that he had 38.7 seconds of playing time in his two years.

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Emt was wearing his Big East championship jacket the night of his 1995 accident, which he says left him for dead on the side of the highway. When he woke up from a coma a few days later, he learned he would never walk again.

And he didn’t want to tell people why, until a newspaper reporter approached him six months later wanting to tell his story — and encouraged him to be honest. He said the opportunity to “come clean” helped him accept what he’d done and forgive himself.

“That’s my label: Yeah I’m a curler, yeah I’m a speaker, yeah I’m a drunk driver,” he said. “I’m in a wheelchair because of a drunk driving crash, and I want you to know it and I want you to learn from me.”

Emt first got into motivational speaking about eight months after his accident, and has been doing it ever since. He calls it his therapy.

He says that and curling — which is about shaking hands with competitors instead of smack-talking them — has helped him slow down and appreciate the little things. Relocating to Wisconsin and the chiller pace of Midwest life has also helped. And he says he cherishes the platform that curling has given him.

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“I want people to know: ‘Hey, when you’re ready to talk, I’m here for you.’ This is what I do, from my speaking to my curling, whatever it is, there are so many opportunities to be successful again,” he said. “When you wake up and you’re told you’re never going to walk again, it’s like, what do I do now? … And I just want people to know that there are so many avenues out there, so many things to do.”

Emt, the oldest Paralympian on Team USA, originally aimed to make it to three Games. But he’s now eyeing even more, as he’d like to compete on home turf in Salt Lake City in 2034 (two Games away).

“I’m going to be like 90 years old competing at the Paralympics,” he laughed.

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Map: 2.3-Magnitude Earthquake Reported North of New York City

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Map: 2.3-Magnitude Earthquake Reported North of New York City

Note: Map shows the area with a shake intensity of 3 or greater, which U.S.G.S. defines as “weak,” though the earthquake may be felt outside the areas shown.  All times on the map are Eastern. The New York Times

A minor, 2.3-magnitude earthquake struck about 12 miles north of New York City on Tuesday, according to the United States Geological Survey.

The temblor happened at 10:17 a.m. Eastern in Sleepy Hollow, N.Y., data from the agency shows.

The Westchester County emergency services department said in a statement that it had not received any reports of damage.

As seismologists review available data, they may revise the earthquake’s reported magnitude. Additional information collected about the earthquake may also prompt U.S.G.S. scientists to update the shake-severity map.

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Source: United States Geological Survey | Notes: Shaking categories are based on the Modified Mercalli Intensity scale. When aftershock data is available, the corresponding maps and charts include earthquakes within 100 miles and seven days of the initial quake. All times above are Eastern. Shake data is as of Tuesday, March 10 at 10:30 a.m. Eastern. Aftershocks data is as of Tuesday, March 10 at 2:18 p.m. Eastern.

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