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Poorer voters flocked to Trump and other data points from the election

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Poorer voters flocked to Trump and other data points from the election

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Donald Trump’s win gave Republicans their highest share of the popular vote in two decades — and revealed big shifts in the US electorate, from the Democratic party’s reliance on wealthier, college-educated voters to the power of issues like immigration.

Low turnout by Democrats also hurt Kamala Harris’s chances while support from traditional left-leaning voting groups, such as Hispanic and Black voters, fell.

The results also show that poorer and less-educated voters now think Republicans best represent them — a reversal from 12 years ago, when Democrat Barack Obama was president.

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After a deep-dive into the data, here are five takeaways.

Democratic support depends on high-income voters

Economic realignment has been under way for some time, but hastened in this election. The Democratic party now appears to be the party of high-income voters, not those with low incomes.

For the first time in decades, Democrats received more support from Americans in the top third of the income bracket than from poorer groups, according to an FT analysis of voter surveys.

In contrast to 2020, the majority of lower-income households or those earning less than $50,000 a year voted for Trump this election. Conversely, those making over $100,000 voted for Harris, according to exit polls.

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At the same time, Trump enjoyed enduring support from voters without a college degree, with nearly two-thirds voting for the former president, according to exit polling in ten states by NBC News.

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Immigration probably pushed voters to Trump

A poll by Gallup before the election found that US voters saw immigration as the most important problem facing the country, with 55 per cent saying that it was a “critical threat” to the US.

The results from Tuesday show just how damaging the issue was for Harris, who was blamed by Trump for the record high number of border crossings during the Biden administration.

Some of the areas that swung furthest to the former president were on the US south-western border, including Hidalgo and Zapata counties in Texas and Santa Cruz County in Arizona.

In Texas, Trump managed to flip four counties on the US-Mexico border that had voted for Democratic presidential candidates since the 1970s.

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Trump captured the suburbs and cities became less Democratic

Joe Biden’s victory over Trump in 2020 owed much to the big Democratic turnout in swing-state suburbs, including a blue wave in the majority-white suburbs of Pennsylvania and Georgia, as well as both majority-white and majority-Latino areas in Phoenix and Tucson, Arizona.

But on Tuesday, Trump captured more votes than Harris everywhere outside large cities, including suburban areas. In large urban areas, Democrats lost more than 1mn votes compared to 2020, according to an FT analysis of the results.

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The rural-urban divide has increasingly become an entrenched dimension of US politics, but this election saw a sharp drop in Democratic support in large cities, while rural areas continued to become more red.

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Hispanic-majority areas swung to Trump

Days before the election, comedian Tony Hinchcliffe’s disparaging remarks about Puerto Rico at a Trump rally cast doubt on the Republican candidate’s ability to win over Latino voters.

But the results showed that Latinos, as well as other non-white voters, are increasingly drawn to Trump. The shift could have lasting implications given Latinos are among the fastest-growing ethnic groups in the US.

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Even in liberal enclaves like Philadelphia, the most populous city in the swing state of Pennsylvania, voters swung towards Trump in majority-Hispanic areas, even while Harris won those precincts overall, according to an FT analysis of municipal data.

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In Texas, some of the largest swings towards Trump also came from majority-Hispanic counties, including Starr County on the US-Mexico border, which has a Hispanic population of over 96 per cent.

Trump even managed to flip Florida’s most populous county, the majority-Hispanic Miami-Dade County, for the first time since 1988.

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Low turnout among Democrats accentuated the swing towards Trump

Not all of the swing towards Trump across the country was attributable to an increase in support for the Republican.

While New York swung to Trump by 12 points in 2024, fewer than 190,000 additional people voted for him than in 2020. But 800,000 fewer people voted for Harris than Biden in the state. Illinois and Ohio followed a similar trend.

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Of the swing states, only in Pennsylvania did Democrats lose more votes than Trump gained. In Wisconsin, Georgia and North Carolina, the party increased their vote count — albeit only by 300 in the North Carolina.

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Harris’s turnout effort did bear some fruit, with current estimates showing that the proportion of the voting-eligible population who voted increased in all but two of the swing states.

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Additional reporting by Radhika Rukmangadhan in New York and Alan Smith in London

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Finland probes Russian shadow fleet oil tanker after cable-cutting incident

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Finland probes Russian shadow fleet oil tanker after cable-cutting incident

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Finnish authorities are investigating an oil tanker that is part of Russia’s shadow fleet over whether it cut an electricity cable between Finland and Estonia.

The Eagle S was stopped by Finnish authorities after the Estlink 2 subsea electricity cable in the Gulf of Finland was disconnected on Wednesday. The tanker, which is registered in the Cook Islands and is carrying oil from Russia to Egypt according to ship tracking data, was seen passing over the cable at the time of the incident.

The aged tanker is part of Russia’s shadow fleet and is the focus of Finland’s investigation, according to people familiar with the probe. The Eagle S is also under investigation over whether it cut three communications cables in the Gulf of Finland, the people added.

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The shadow fleet is a group of old and often poorly maintained ships used by Russia to circumvent international sanctions on its oil exports.

The Christmas Day incident appears to be the latest in a series of pipelines and cables being targeted in the Baltic Sea by foreign vessels, sparking fears of deliberate attacks on critical infrastructure between Nato countries.

“We must be able to prevent the risks posed by ships belonging to the Russian shadow fleet,” said Finland’s President Alexander Stubb in a post on X after a meeting with security chiefs on Thursday.

Last year a Chinese container ship, the Newnew Polar Bear, cut a gas pipeline between Finland and Estonia but was not stopped by authorities as it was in international waters.

A Chinese bulk carrier, the Yi Peng 3, last month passed over two data cables between Finland and Germany and Sweden and Lithuania about the times they were severed. It stopped for a month in international waters between Denmark and Sweden.

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Chinese investigators finally boarded the ship last week, with Swedish, Danish, German and Finnish representatives present as observers. But Sweden’s foreign minister criticised Beijing for not allowing the lead Swedish investigator to board or to inspect the vessel, which has now left the region.

The Eagle S case is different as the ship voluntarily stopped inside Finnish waters, according to people familiar with the investigation, leaving no question as to jurisdiction. Ownership of the Eagle S is murky but it appears to be the only vessel owned by a Dubai company. Attempts to reach the owner on Thursday were unsuccessful. 

Authorities have not determined the cause of the disconnection of the Estlink 2 cable. Estonia has also said it will not affect its electricity supply. The cable is used to export electricity from Finland, which recently brought its latest nuclear power plant online, to Estonia.

Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo said the country’s electricity supply would not be affected.

Finnish authorities are keeping an open mind on the latest incident, not least because dozens of poorly maintained vessels in the shadow fleet sail in the Baltic Sea.

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Environmental campaigners have issued repeated warnings about the dangers in the region and elsewhere of the dilapidated vessels.

In the Mediterranean, a Russian cargo ship under US sanctions for working with the Russian military sank between Spain and Algeria on Tuesday.

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Popeye, Tintin and more will enter the public domain in the new year

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Popeye, Tintin and more will enter the public domain in the new year

An enlarged cartoon of Tintin pictured on display at Paris’ Pompidou Cultural Center in 2006. The Belgian cub reporter is among the characters and works entering the public domain in 2025.

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Jan. 1 marks the dawn of a new era for Popeye and Tintin. It’s the day the nonagenarian cartoon characters officially enter the U.S. public domain along with a treasure trove of other iconic works.

The copyrights of thousands of films, songs and books expire in 2025, making them instantly available for people to use, share and adapt. The list includes classics like Virginia Woolf’s book A Room of One’s Own, the Fats Waller song “Ain’t Misbehavin’” and the Marx Brothers’ first feature film, The Cocoanuts.

The main thing they have in common is their age — under U.S. copyright law, their terms all expire after 95 years. All of the works entering the public domain next year are from 1929, except for sound recordings, which (because they are covered by a different law) come from 1924.

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“Copyright’s awesome … but the fact that rights eventually expire, that’s a good thing, too, because that’s the wellspring for creativity,” says Jennifer Jenkins, the director of Duke’s Center for the Study of the Public Domain, which spends months poring over records to compile the most famous examples.

Once in the public domain, these works become fodder for remakes, spinoffs and other adaptations.

That explains the recent wave of horror films starring Mickey Mouse and Winnie the Pooh, characters that entered the public domain in 2024 and 2023 respectively. The trend seems poised to continue: Jenkins says there are already three Popeye slasher flicks in the works.

“They’re capitalizing on the incongruity of this comic book character in a different genre and they get a lot of buzz,” she adds. “[But] when I sit back and look at the universe of remakes of public domain characters or works … the things that we still talk about that stand the test of time don’t tend to be these buzzworthy, kind of ew, grossed-out features.”

More enduring examples include West Side Story drawn from Shakespeare’s Romeo & Juliet, screen adaptations of Jane Austen’s Emma, Percival Everett’s 2024 book James (a retelling of Huckleberry Finn) and Wicked, the musical-turned-movie prequel to L. Frank Baum’s Wizard of Oz. 

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But these artifacts don’t only become fodder for big-name directors and authors — they’re available for anyone who wants to use them, from artists to high school orchestra directors.

Jenkins says she gets “adorable emails” from people who are drawing their own little Winnie the Pooh cartoons, and parents whose kids are talented musicians, eager to finally be able to perform certain compositions publicly and post them online.

In other words, the impact of public domain works extends far beyond the box office and Billboard charts.

“I’m excited about those things that not everybody’s going to notice — people really re-discovering some of these older works and engaging with them and appreciating them and making them their own,” she adds.

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Here’s a look at some of the works that are just days away from the public domain:

Characters

A Popeye balloon flies over the 33rd Macy's Thanksgiving Day Parade in Times Square.

A helium-filled Popeye balloon participates in the 33rd Macy’s Thanksgiving Day Parade in New York in 1959, three decades after his comic strip debut.

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Tintin the brave cub reporter — and his dog, Snowy — will enter the public domain in the U.S. well before they will in the European Union, where they are copyrighted until 2054. That’s because EU copyright terms extend 70 years past creators’ deaths, and Belgian cartoonist Hergé died in 1983.

Closer to home there’s E.C. Segar’s Popeye, who made his debut in a January 1929 Thimble Theatre cartoon strip. He sports his signature pipe, sailor outfit, anchor tattoo and sense of humor, responding when asked if he’s a sailor: “Ja think I’m a cowboy?”

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He could have a whole new set of adventures starting in 2025. But there’s a catch: Popeye didn’t start deriving his strength from spinach until 1932.

As Jenkins explains, many cartoon characters develop over time and have been in copyrighted works year after year, meaning certain aspects of them may come into the public domain in different years. So only the original 1929 versions of Popeye and Tintin are fair game, at least for now.

“Definitely the Popeye from 1929 and everything that he says, all of his characteristics, his personality, his sarcasm … that’s public domain,” she says. “The spinach, if you want to be on the safe side, you might want to wait.”

Films

A promotional card for Clara Bow's movie "The Wild Party."

The Wild Party, Clara Bow’s first talkie, was released in 1929, making it public domain in 2025.

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Similarly, the original Steamboat Willie version of Mickey Mouse arrived in the public domain with much fanfare in 2024. In 2025, a dozen more Mickey animations will follow suit — including The Karnival Kid, in which he speaks for the first time.

“His very first words are ‘Hot dogs! Hot dogs!’ — so I guess that’s kind of cute,” Jenkins says. “And then he didn’t wear the white gloves in 1928, but next year, in 2025, we get the version of Mickey Mouse with the signature white gloves in the public domain.”

Sound is a big theme across the films making their public domain debut next year, since 1929 marked the end of the silent film era and the dawn of the sound film age.

The list includes the first sound films from major directors like Alfred Hitchcock (Blackmail), John Ford (The Black Watch) and Cecil B. DeMille (Dynamite), as well as Clara Bow’s first talkie, The Wild Party, and The Broadway Melody, the first sound film to win an Academy Award for Best Picture.

Other notables include Walt Disney’s The Skeleton Dance (the first of the Silly Symphony shorts); King Vidor’s Hallelujah, the first major studio film with an all-Black cast; and Alan Crosland’s On With the Show, the first all-talking, all-color, feature-length film.

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Books

This combination of photos show authors Ernest Hemingway in 1950, left, William Faulkner in 1950, center, and John Steinbeck in 1962.

From left: Ernest Hemingway in 1950, William Faulkner in 1950, and John Steinbeck in 1962.

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Among the many literary works entering the public domain next year are two of the most acclaimed books about World War I: Ernest Hemingway’s A Farewell to Arms, and the first English translation of Erich Maria Remarque’s All Quiet on the Western Front — both authors served in the war themselves.

The list includes several detective mysteries: Red Harvest and The Maltese Falcon by Dashiell Hammett, Ellery Queen’s The Roman Hat Mystery, and Seven Dials Mystery by Agatha Christie.

There are also some literary debuts, including John Steinbeck’s first novel, Cup of Gold, and Richard Hughes’ first novel A High Wind in Jamaica.

Musical compositions

George Gershwin writes sheet music while sitting at a piano.

George Gershwin’s “An American in Paris” is among the musical compositions entering the public domain in 2025.

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The latest crop of compositions spans the era’s jazz standards, show tunes, pop music and more.

They include: Arthur Freed’s Singin’ in the Rain (which was featured in the film The Hollywood Revue of 1929, also entering public domain), George Gershwin’s An American in Paris, Maurice Ravel’s Bolero, Jack Yellen’s Happy Days Are Here Again (the campaign song for FDR’s 1932 presidential run), Cole Porter’s What Is This Thing Called Love? and Tiptoe Through the Tulips (the Joseph Burke version, not the 1968 Tiny Tim one).

“But if you felt like singing like Tiny Tim for some reason, and you could, you can record your own version of Tiptoe Through the Tulips next year because that song’s going to be public domain,” Jenkins says.

The Center for the Study of Public Domain specifies that musical compositions refer to “the music and lyrics that you might see on a piece of sheet music, not the recordings of those songs.” Those are covered by a separate copyright.

Sound recordings

Marian Anderson poses for a photo outside.

Marian Anderson became the first Black singer to perform at the Metropolitan Opera House in New York in 1955. One of her early recordings from 1924 will enter the public domain next year.

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Under the 2018 Music Modernization Act, sound recordings are protected by copyright for 100 years. It’s the particular recordings that eventually enter the public domain, not the song’s music or lyrics or later recordings from those artists.

These are some of the 1924 performances that will become available for legal reuse in January: Marian Anderson’s “Nobody Knows the Trouble I’ve Seen,” George Gershwin’s “Rhapsody in Blue,” Jelly Roll Morton’s “Shreveport Stomp,” “Deep Blue Sea Blues” by Clara Smith, and “Everybody Loves My Baby (But My Baby Don’t Love Nobody But Me)” recorded by Louis Armstrong and Clarence Williams’ Blue Five.

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Dozens feared dead as Azerbaijan Airlines plane crashes in Kazakhstan

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Dozens feared dead as Azerbaijan Airlines plane crashes in Kazakhstan

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An Azerbaijan Airlines plane carrying 62 passengers and five crew has crashed while making an emergency landing at a Kazakhstan airport, with 29 survivors, including two children, taken to hospital.

Videos on local media showed a large explosion after the aircraft crashed into an empty field. Images from the scene showed passengers climbing out of the tail of the fuselage aided by emergency workers.

Those aboard were from Azerbaijan, Russia, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, Russian state Ria news agency reported, citing Kazakhstan’s transport ministry.

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Local media outlets reported that nine of those taken to hospital were in serious condition and that search and rescue operations were under way.

The plane, an Embraer 190, was travelling to Grozny in the southern Russian republic of Chechnya from Azerbaijan’s capital Baku, but was diverted to Aktau after flying into heavy fog.

Early media reports suggested that the plane hit a flock of birds, which affected control of the aircraft.

“After a collision with birds, due to an emergency situation on board the aircraft, its commander decided to go to an alternate airfield and Aktau was chosen,” Ria reported, citing Russia’s aviation agency Rosaviatsia. Local media also shared unconfirmed reports of an explosion of an oxygen canister onboard, leading many passengers to lose consciousness.

Baku has sent an official delegation to Kazakhstan to investigate the incident, Azerbaijan’s APA news agency said. The country’s president, Ilham Aliyev, left an informal summit of the Commonwealth of Independent States in Russia to return to Baku. He expressed his condolences to the those affected by the crash.

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Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Russian President Vladimir Putin had also extended his condolences to Azerbaijan’s leader.

Chechnya’s leader Ramzan Kadyrov expressed his condolences to the relatives of the deceased on social media. “We pray to the Almighty for [the survivors’] recovery.”

Photos on social media showed relatives gathering in Grozny airport to wait for news of their loved ones.

One man at Grozny airport said he had just received a video in which he could see his nephew had survived the crash. “Of course I am very happy,” he told a Ria news reporter.

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