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Opinion: What Putin forgot when he invaded Ukraine | CNN

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Opinion: What Putin forgot when he invaded Ukraine | CNN

Editor’s Word: Signal as much as get this weekly column as a e-newsletter. We’re wanting again on the strongest, smartest opinion takes of the week from CNN and different shops.



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When Nazi Germany attacked the Soviet Union on June 22, 1941, dictator Joseph Stalin was too shocked to talk in public for practically two weeks.

On July 3, he lastly gave a radio speech, attempting to reassure his nation — already struggling critical battlefield losses to the German blitzkrieg — with the phrases, “Historical past exhibits that there aren’t any invincible armies.”

Germany’s “Operation Barbarossa” concerned greater than 3 million troops, about 3,000 tanks and a couple of,500 plane — one of many largest invasion forces in historical past. Anticipating to overcome Moscow inside weeks, Nazi dictator Adolf Hitler thought the Soviet regime would shortly disintegrate. Over the following 4 years although, Hitler’s armies proved to be something however invincible.

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One 12 months in the past, Stalin’s inheritor within the Kremlin, Russian President Vladimir Putin, launched a military — one which he doubtless thought was invincible — into Ukraine, aiming to shortly decapitate its management and seize Kyiv. His hopes have been pissed off by Ukraine’s spirited protection underneath President Volodymyr Zelensky, and the 2 nations proceed to be locked in a savage battle.

Opposite to what most individuals anticipated earlier than the conflict, it’s a stalemate, noticed retired US Common David Petraeus, in a Q&A with CNN Nationwide Safety Analyst Peter Bergen. So how does the Russian chief look a 12 months after his choice?

“Putin has earned a failing grade so far,” mentioned Petraeus, who commanded the US wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. “Let’s recall that the primary and most essential activity of a strategic chief is to ‘get the massive concepts proper’ — that’s, to get the general technique and elementary choices proper. Putin clearly has failed abysmally in that activity, leading to a conflict that has made him and his nation a pariah, set again the Russian economic system by a decade or extra (dropping a lot of Russia’s finest and brightest, and prompting over 1,200 western corporations to go away Russia or cut back operations there), achieved catastrophic injury to the Russian navy and its status and put his legacy in critical jeopardy.”

Nonetheless, it will be a mistake to underestimate Russia, Petraeus famous, citing a maxim usually attributed, maybe wrongly, to Stalin: “Amount has a high quality of its personal.”

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Throughout World Warfare II, the Soviet Union’s skill to name on huge reserves and maintain huge casualties, regardless of having inferior tanks and planes, helped it to defeat Germany.

At the moment, Russia’s inhabitants is greater than 3 times the dimensions of Ukraine’s and it could possibly afford to ship extra troopers into the struggle. However in Ukraine’s case there’s an intangible issue. “Ukrainians know what they’re combating for,” Petraeus famous, “whereas it’s not clear that the identical is true of lots of the Russian troopers, a disproportionate variety of whom are from ethnic and sectarian minorities within the Russian Federation.”

Diliara Didenko headshot

On February 23, 2022, Diliara Didenko, went to mattress in Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine, “pondering that I’d have fun my husband’s birthday the following day. Our life was getting higher. My husband was operating his personal enterprise. Our daughter had began faculty and made pals there. We have been fortunate to have organized assist companies and located a particular wants nursery for our son. I lastly had time to work. I felt completely satisfied.”

She had no inkling that the outbreak of conflict would drive her to restart her life within the Czech Republic inside 22 days.

“Fully exhausted, crushed and scared, we needed to brace ourselves and are available to phrases with our pressured displacement. I shall be ceaselessly grateful to all those that helped us come to Prague and alter to a brand new life in a international land.” Didenko’s is one story among the many tens of tens of millions of lives displaced, disrupted or lower quick by the conflict.

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For extra:

Frida Ghitis: Break up the Xi Jinping-Vladimir Putin partnership

Cristian Gherasim: Moldova isn’t on the entrance web page, however it may very well be in Putin’s crosshairs

Rising up close to Michigan State College’s campus “was the stuff of childhood desires,” recalled CNN Opinion’s Kirsi Goldynia. On quiet summer season evenings, she would “sit outdoors the MSU Dairy Retailer licking an ice cream cone … I used to be protected on this neighborhood the place we appeared out for each other. I had area to run and play, to develop and picture and study.”

“Since shifting away from residence, these childhood recollections have moored me to the place the place I grew up, the place life felt easy and the world felt form,” she noticed. “On Monday evening, when information broke that there was an energetic shooter on Michigan State’s campus, I clung to these recollections.”

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Goldynia’s mom was amongst these locked down for hours when a shooter killed three individuals and injured 5 extra. The information alarmed these on campus and rippled out to the large alumni community of MSU, which has about 50,000 present college students.

“I take into consideration the phrases Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer spoke on Tuesday morning — ‘Our Spartan neighborhood is reeling right this moment’ — and I ponder if the ‘reeling’ ever ends and, if it does, what comes afterward,” Goldynia wrote.

Within the Detroit Free Press, Jemele Hill, who graduated from MSU, wrote, “What occurred … is a reminder that the regularity of those acts is bringing violence even nearer to all of us. A few of the college students whom Individuals noticed struggling to course of what occurred had already lived via one other mass taking pictures — in Oxford, or Newtown, Conn. Most of the college students who fled sure buildings on campus the evening of the taking pictures have been simply following the protocols they’d been taught previous to coming to Michigan State, as a result of educating youngsters and younger adults how to not be killed in mass shootings is now a staple of America’s egregious routine.”

For extra on weapons:

Jens Ludwig and Chico Tillmon: There’s no security internet to catch the younger males at highest danger of gun violence

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01 opinion column 0218

Now there’s multiple. For months, former President Donald Trump was the one candidate for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination. This week, Nikki Haley, the previous South Carolina governor and US ambassador to the UN, entered the fray, saying, “We’re greater than prepared for a brand new technology to guide us into the longer term.”

As SE Cupp famous, Haley referred to as for going past the “light names of the previous” and argued for time period limits for members of Congress and “obligatory psychological competency exams for politicians over 75 years outdated.” Trump is 76 and President Joe Biden is 80.

However the actual query, in Cupp’s view, is that this: “Will Haley additionally deliver substantively totally different views that enchantment to youthful generations?”

“Will she break with the election denialism, grievance politics, white nationalism and conspiracy theories that Trumpism allowed?” And, Cupp added, the place will Haley stand on immigration, gun management, local weather change, abortion and different points that significantly resonate with youthful voters?

For extra:

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Gavin Smith: Nikki Haley is a superb 2024 GOP candidate

Issac Bailey: Nikki Haley is a poor 2024 GOP candidate

A report Thursday from a particular grand jury in Georgia supplied a recent refutation of Trump’s already discredited declare of large fraud within the 2020 election. As Jill Filipovic identified, the jurors, who doubtless included some Trump voters, “have been requested to evaluate whether or not it’s doable {that a} former president and his allies had leveraged an assault on American democracy, or whether or not that president was telling the reality when he mentioned the election was stolen.”

In a unanimous conclusion, “they discovered that, opposite to the previous president’s claims, there was no proof of widespread fraud undermining the outcomes of the election, and that a minimum of some legal prices ought to be introduced.”

“If common individuals chosen for a particular grand jury can full this activity with honesty and integrity, certainly it’s not asking an excessive amount of for Republican officeholders to strategy their roles with related gravity: To declare that the election was free and truthful, and to ask that those that could have damaged the legislation or lied be held accountable,” wrote Filipovic.

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A court docket submitting the identical day within the libel lawsuit introduced by Dominion Voting Methods towards Fox Information revealed extra damning info. Writing in CNN’s Dependable Sources e-newsletter, Oliver Darcy noticed, “Regardless of what the right-wing speak channel peddled to its tens of millions of loyal viewers within the fast aftermath of the 2020 election, behind the scenes its most outstanding stars and highest-ranking executives privately trashed claims of election fraud.”

01 ohio toxic train derailment explainer

The derailment that left 20 vehicles of hazardous supplies within the village of East Palestine, Ohio, greater than two weeks in the past continues to be an enormous concern for residents searching for solutions.

Judith A. Lennington, a manufacturing unit employee turned e book writer and a longtime resident, noticed the consequences of the catastrophe from her farm three miles away.

“The cloud that went up within the sky was like nothing I’ve ever seen in my life,” she instructed CNN Opinion’s Stephanie Griffith. “It appeared like an enormous black cloud with a twister coming down from it. It was simply terrible. After the accident, we put quilts over the doorways and over the home windows, sealed the cracks and simply stayed inside.”

“I can nonetheless scent it outdoors. Fortunately the fumes should not robust right here — the wind blows within the different route — however I can, nonetheless, if I am going from the home to the storage, I can really feel my eyes burning. And I lose my voice after some time…”

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“So I don’t know what’s going to occur. Is it protected to let your youngsters exit and stroll in that grass? Is it protected to let your pets go to the lavatory on the grass after which come again in your home? In case your water is protected, what about these ponds the place the practice wreck is?”

The newly elected Sen. John Fetterman checked himself into Walter Reed Nationwide Navy Medical Heart Thursday for remedy of “scientific despair,” his chief of workers introduced. Fetterman, recovering from a stroke throughout his marketing campaign final 12 months, deserves credit score for searching for assist and being open about it, wrote psychologist Peggy Drexler.

“We’re proper to need to know concerning the well being points dealing with our leaders and the steps they’re taking to get the assistance they want, however it’s essential to do not forget that tens of millions of Individuals battle despair and lead extremely productive, profitable lives. … We’re dwelling in powerful occasions, and nearly everyone hurts; if our leaders are supposed to signify us, how can we presumably fault them for being, in truth, similar to us?”

06 opinion column 0218

The episode of the Chinese language balloon was adopted by a good stranger one: US fighter jets shot down three extra objects of so-far unknown origin over the US and Canada. President Biden spoke concerning the shootdowns for the primary time on Thursday, saying that there was no indication the final three have been related to the balloon from China, which US officers mentioned was supposed for surveillance.

In January, as Peter Bergen famous, the US intelligence neighborhood reported that “the variety of UFO sightings considerably elevated between March 2021 and August 2022, throughout which period 247 new sightings have been reported, principally by US Navy and Air Pressure pilots and personnel. That’s nearly double the 144 UFO sightings reported within the 17-year interval between 2004 to 2021.” May the spate of unexplained plane have any relation to those that have been shot down?

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“Congress ought to convene hearings to unravel this,” Bergen wrote. “The general public has a proper to grasp why objects are flying round in American airspace that the Pentagon and the US intelligence neighborhood can’t establish.”

For extra:

Julian Zelizer: Biden’s ‘no apologies’ speech ought to silence his critics.

03 opinion column 0218
01b stalin's daughter

Svetlana was Joseph Stalin’s “beloved daughter,” Rosemary Sullivan wrote. “Stalin referred to as her his little hostess, little fly, little sparrow. She was the one one who may cease his rages towards her mom by wrapping her arms round his Cossack boots.”

However when a significantly older Soviet filmmaker wooed the 16-year-old Svetlana, her father’s response was fierce: he despatched him to the Gulag for 10 years. “This was when Svetlana started to grasp who her father was. Her standing as beloved was conditional.”

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Her story has new resonance now that North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un seems to be “grooming his daughter to hold on his dynasty. North Korea simply launched a brand new postage stamp carrying images of the dictator and his ‘beloved daughter’ standing collectively watching the test-firing of the Hwasong-17 intercontinental ballistic missile,” Sullivan famous.

“Will she, like Svetlana, inherit her father’s will however reject his murderous legacy? Or will she show a well-trained apprentice and presumably turn into extra harmful than her father?”

Vermeer Exhibition DV

The very last thing Euny Hong anticipated to be doing was panicking about getting tickets to an artwork exhibit. However then she learn what she referred to as the “sadistic” headline a “sadistic” pal posted on Fb:

“There’ll by no means be a Vermeer exhibit as nice as this one.”

“In the complete world, there are solely 35 identified work by the Seventeenth-century Dutch grasp, whose legendary use of texture and lightweight, significantly within the portrayal of ladies of their on a regular basis lives, positions him among the many best painters of all time,” Hong wrote. The much-anticipated exhibit at Amsterdam’s Rijksmuseum options “28 of his works, together with ‘Woman with a Pearl Earring,’ which, by the way in which, is barely on show via March.”

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“It was the phrases ‘there’ll by no means be’ that despatched me right into a frenzy of obsessively refreshing the museum’s internet web page like a lab rat pushing a heroin lever. The positioning alternated between crashing and displaying a message that they have been ‘quickly’ suspending ticket gross sales. And right here I assumed my lack of Taylor Swift fandom would save me from such indignities!”

Glad ending: Hong landed the tickets.

05 opinion column 0218

Sophia A. Nelson: Who will take care of the caregivers?

Pratika Katiyar: I’m a GenZ pupil journalist. We gained’t be silenced

Jill FIlipovic: A violent assault with canine feces raises questions all ladies confront

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Raed Al Saleh: It was one of many world’s deadliest catastrophes. The place was the UN?

Gene Seymour: The Tremendous Bowl’s finest advert additionally holds one of the best recommendation

Heather Ann Thompson: A college’s sinister transfer is sadly a part of a well-known story

Dean Obeidallah: The GOP can’t ignore the blockbuster report on Trump, Kushner and Saudi funds

Peter Svarzbein: The US southern border is just not a risk –— it’s a chance

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Khalil Gibran Muhammad and Erica Licht: Ron DeSantis’s newest salvo towards range

AND…

01b MLB pitch clock

Baseball could also be thought of America’s “nationwide pastime,” however the MLB has been dropping followers for years to faster-paced sports activities leagues just like the NBA and NFL. So when spring coaching video games start later this week, there shall be one revolutionary change: a time clock to drive pitchers to spend much less time between throws.

“For greater than 150 years, the dearth of a clock on the sphere has distinguished baseball from different main US crew sports activities, and a few baseball purists are positive to object to including one,” wrote Frederic J. Frommer.

There’s a precedent of kinds. Within the early Fifties, curiosity in skilled basketball was declining, prompting the league to introduce a shot clock. “The affect was fast: common crew scoring per sport elevated from 79 factors to 93. That determine rose to 106 by 1958, and never coincidentally, attendance soared by 40%.”

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“Individuals don’t come to video games to observe guys stand round and do nothing — whether or not it’s on a basketball court docket or a baseball diamond,” Frommer noticed. “A clock gained’t have the identical dramatic impact on baseball that it had on the NBA. However for Individuals with limitless leisure choices and restricted time, it is going to assist entice followers with extra thrilling (and quicker) baseball video games than we’ve seen in years.”

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Chiefs superfan 'ChiefsAholic' sentenced to 32 years in Oklahoma prison

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Chiefs superfan 'ChiefsAholic' sentenced to 32 years in Oklahoma prison

A Kansas City Chiefs fan, ChiefsAholic, poses for photos while walking toward Empower Field at Mile High before an NFL football game between the Denver Broncos and the Chiefs,on Jan. 8, 2022, in Denver.

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TULSA, Okla. — A Kansas City Chiefs superfan known as “ChiefsAholic” was sentenced Monday in an Oklahoma courtroom to serve 32 years in state prison for robbing a Tulsa-area bank, a sentence that will be carried out after he finishes serving time in federal prison.

Xaviar Babudar, 30, appeared in a Tulsa courtroom and apologized to the court and to the victims of the December 2022 robbery of the Tulsa Teachers Credit Union in Bixby, Oklahoma, said Babudar’s attorney, Jay-Michael Swab.

“He expressed sincere remorse and took full responsibility for his actions,” Swab said.

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Babudar already was serving more than 17 years in federal prison for a string of 11 bank robberies across seven states where he stole nearly $850,000 to finance his social media stardom. Swab said the robberies also were the result of a gambling addiction.

Tulsa County District Attorney Steve Kunzweiler had sought life in prison for Babudar.

“He is a serial robber who traumatized these victims and numerous other victims across this country,” Kunzweiler said in a statement.

Tulsa County District Judge Michelle Keely ordered Babudar’s 32-year sentence to run concurrently to his federal sentence, which means after he is released from federal prison he will be transferred to state custody to serve his remaining 14 years.

Babudar developed a following on his @ChiefsAholic account on the social platform X after attending games dressed as a wolf in Chiefs gear. His avid support of the Chiefs became well known on social media.

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Why Trump Suddenly Declared Victory Over the Houthi Militia

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Why Trump Suddenly Declared Victory Over the Houthi Militia

When he approved a campaign to reopen shipping in the Red Sea by bombing the Houthi militant group into submission, President Trump wanted to see results within 30 days of the initial strikes two months ago.

By Day 31, Mr. Trump, ever leery of drawn-out military entanglements in the Middle East, demanded a progress report, according to administration officials.

But the results were not there. The United States had not even established air superiority over the Houthis. Instead, what was emerging after 30 days of a stepped-up campaign against the Yemeni group was another expensive but inconclusive American military engagement in the region.

The Houthis shot down several American MQ-9 Reaper drones and continued to fire at naval ships in the Red Sea, including an American aircraft carrier. And the U.S. strikes burned through weapons and munitions at a rate of about $1 billion in the first month alone.

It did not help that two $67 million F/A-18 Super Hornets from America’s flagship aircraft carrier tasked with conducting strikes against the Houthis accidentally tumbled off the carrier into the sea.

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By then, Mr. Trump had had enough.

Steve Witkoff, his Middle East envoy, who was already in Omani-mediated nuclear talks with Iran, reported that Omani officials had suggested what could be a perfect offramp for Mr. Trump on the separate issue of the Houthis, according to American and Arab officials. The United States would halt the bombing campaign and the militia would no longer target American ships in the Red Sea, but without any agreement to stop disrupting shipping that the group deemed helpful to Israel.

U.S. Central Command officials received a sudden order from the White House on May 5 to “pause” offensive operations.

Announcing the cessation of hostilities, the president sounded almost admiring about the militant Islamist group, despite vowing earlier that it would be “completely annihilated.”

“We hit them very hard and they had a great ability to withstand punishment,” Mr. Trump said. “You could say there was a lot of bravery there.” He added that “they gave us their word that they wouldn’t be shooting at ships anymore, and we honor that.”

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Whether that proves to be true remains to be seen. The Houthis fired a ballistic missile at Israel on Friday, triggering air raid sirens that drove people off beaches in Tel Aviv. The missile was intercepted by Israeli air defenses.

The sudden declaration of victory over the Houthis demonstrates how some members of the president’s national security team underestimated a group known for its resilience. Gen. Michael E. Kurilla, the head of Central Command, had pressed for a forceful campaign, which the defense secretary and the national security adviser initially supported, according to several officials with knowledge of the discussions. But the Houthis reinforced many of their bunkers and weapons depots throughout the intense bombing.

Significantly, the men also misjudged their boss’s tolerance for military conflict in the region, which he is visiting this week, with stops in Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. Mr. Trump has never bought into long-running military entanglements in the Middle East, and spent his first term trying to bring troops home from Syria, Afghanistan and Iraq.

What’s more, Mr. Trump’s new chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Dan Caine, was concerned that an extended campaign against the Houthis would drain military resources away from the Asia-Pacific region. His predecessor, Gen. Charles Q. Brown Jr., shared that view before he was fired in February.

By May 5, Mr. Trump was ready to move on, according to interviews with more than a dozen current and former officials with knowledge of the discussions in the president’s national security circle. They spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe the internal discussions.

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“We honor their commitment and their word,” Mr. Trump said in remarks at the White House on Wednesday.

A White House spokeswoman, Anna Kelly, said in a statement to The New York Times that “President Trump successfully delivered a cease-fire, which is another good deal for America and our security.” She added that the U.S. military had carried out more than 1,100 strikes, killing hundreds of Houthi fighters and destroying their weapons and equipment.

The chief Pentagon spokesman, Sean Parnell, said the operation was always meant to be limited. “Every aspect of the campaign was coordinated at the highest levels of civilian and military leadership,” he said in an emailed statement.

A former senior official familiar with the conversations about Yemen defended Michael Waltz, Mr. Trump’s former national security adviser, saying he took a coordinating role and was not pushing for any policy beyond wanting to see the president’s goal fulfilled.

General Kurilla had been gunning for the Houthis since November 2023, when the group began attacking ships passing through the Red Sea as a way to target Israel for its invasion of Gaza.

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But President Joseph R. Biden Jr. thought that engaging the Houthis in a forceful campaign would elevate their status on the global stage. Instead, he authorized more limited strikes against the group. But that failed to stop the Houthis.

Now General Kurilla had a new commander in chief.

He proposed an eight- to 10-month campaign in which Air Force and Navy warplanes would take out Houthi air defense systems. Then, he said, U.S. forces would mount targeted assassinations modeled on Israel’s recent operation against Hezbollah, three U.S. officials said.

Saudi officials backed General Kurilla’s plan and provided a target list of 12 Houthi senior leaders whose deaths, they said, would cripple the movement. But the United Arab Emirates, another powerful U.S. ally in the region, was not so sure. The Houthis had weathered years of bombings by the Saudis and the Emiratis.

By early March, Mr. Trump had signed off on part of General Kurilla’s plan — airstrikes against Houthi air defense systems and strikes against the group’s leaders. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth named the campaign Operation Rough Rider.

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At some point, General Kurilla’s eight- to 10-month campaign was given just 30 days to show results.

In those first 30 days, the Houthis shot down seven American MQ-9 drones (around $30 million each), hampering Central Command’s ability to track and strike the militant group. Several American F-16s and an F-35 fighter jet were nearly struck by Houthi air defenses, making real the possibility of American casualties, multiple U.S. officials said.

That possibility became reality when two pilots and a flight deck crew member were injured in the two episodes involving the F/A-18 Super Hornets, which fell into the Red Sea from the aircraft carrier Harry S. Truman within 10 days of each other.

Meanwhile, several members of Mr. Trump’s national security team were battling disclosures that Mr. Hegseth had endangered the lives of U.S. pilots by putting operational plans about the strikes in a chat on the Signal app. Mr. Waltz had started the chat and inadvertently included a journalist.

American strikes had hit more than 1,000 targets, including multiple command and control facilities, air defense systems, advanced weapons manufacturing facilities and advanced weapons storage locations, the Pentagon reported. In addition, more than a dozen senior Houthi leaders had been killed, the military said.

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But the cost of the operation was staggering. The Pentagon had deployed two aircraft carriers, additional B-2 bombers and fighter jets, as well as Patriot and THAAD air defenses, to the Middle East, officials acknowledged privately. By the end of the first 30 days of the campaign, the cost had exceeded $1 billion, the officials said.

So many precision munitions were being used, especially advanced long-range ones, that some Pentagon contingency planners were growing increasingly concerned about overall stocks and the implications for any situation in which the United States might have to ward off an attempted invasion of Taiwan by China.

And through it all, the Houthis were still shooting at vessels and drones, fortifying their bunkers and moving weapons stockpiles underground.

The White House began pressing Central Command for metrics of success in the campaign. The command responded by providing data showing the number of munitions dropped. The intelligence community said that there was “some degradation” of Houthi capability, but argued that the group could easily reconstitute, officials said.

Senior national security officials considered two pathways. They could ramp up operations for up to another month and then conduct “freedom of navigation” exercises in the Red Sea using two carrier groups, the Carl Vinson and the Truman. If the Houthis did not fire on the ships, the Trump administration would declare victory.

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Or, officials said, the campaign could be extended to give Yemeni government forces time to restart a drive to push the Houthis out of the capital and key ports.

In late April, Mr. Hegseth organized a video call with Saudi and Emirati officials and senior officials from the State Department and the White House in an effort to come up with a sustainable way forward and an achievable state for the campaign that they could present to the president.

The group was not able to reach a consensus, U.S. officials said.

Now joining the discussions on the Houthi operation was General Caine, Mr. Trump’s new Joint Chiefs chairman, who was skeptical of an extended campaign. General Caine, aides said, was concerned about supply of assets he thought were needed for the Pacific region.

Also skeptical of a longer campaign were Vice President JD Vance; the director of national intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard; Secretary of State Marco Rubio; and Mr. Trump’s chief of staff, Susie Wiles. Mr. Hegseth, people with knowledge of the discussions said, went back and forth, arguing both sides.

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But Mr. Trump had become the most important skeptic.

On April 28, the Truman was forced to make a hard turn at sea to avoid incoming Houthi fire, several U.S. officials said. The move contributed to the loss of one of the Super Hornets, which was being towed at the time and fell overboard. That same day, dozens of people were killed in a U.S. attack that hit a migrant facility controlled by the Houthis, according to the group and aid officials.

Then on May 4, a Houthi ballistic missile evaded Israel’s aerial defenses and struck near Ben-Gurion International Airport outside Tel Aviv.

On Tuesday, two pilots aboard another Super Hornet, again on the Truman, were forced to eject after their fighter jet failed to catch the steel cable on the carrier deck, sending the plane into the Red Sea.

By then, Mr. Trump had decided to declare the operation a success.

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Houthi officials and their supporters swiftly declared victory, too, spreading a social media hashtag that read “Yemen defeats America.”

Ismaeel Naar contributed reporting from Dubai, United Arab Emirates.

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Trump’s China deal leaves world exposed to trade policy lottery

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Trump’s China deal leaves world exposed to trade policy lottery

This article is an on-site version of our Trade Secrets newsletter. Premium subscribers can sign up here to get the newsletter delivered every Monday. Standard subscribers can upgrade to Premium here, or explore all FT newsletters

Well, that didn’t take long. And there was me thinking that China’s resistance to being bounced into a deal — including the insistence that it was the US that had asked for talks — meant it had settled in for a long haul of negotiations. To be clear: the pact, agreed in suitably neutral Switzerland over the weekend, leaves US tariffs on China ludicrously high and asymmetrically so. But that the US was prepared to make a deal so quickly and reduce duties so much suggests more is to come.

Today’s main piece looks at the deals Trump has agreed so far with China and the UK. I also look at the sorry state of overseas aid and development following the news that Bill Gates will wind down his foundation. And now the first reader question for a while: quite simply, were China and the UK right to accept the deals? Answers please to alan.beattie@ft.com.

Get in touch. Email me at alan.beattie@ft.com

Taking the offer or paying the Dane

Trump’s deals with China and the UK have one thing in common, which is — and please sit down if you’re prone to fainting — they’re not binding and they leave a huge amount of negotiation down the line. I know, right? In fact, it’s not 100 per cent clear what they mean now, especially the China deal. As of this newsletter’s “hit send” time, the world’s trade nerds were still pondering over the announcement, trying to work out exactly what had been agreed. The first stab at overall tariffs, including an average for non-China emerging markets and advanced economies, is here, from the consultancy Oxford Economics.

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And, of course, they’re subject to crossfire from Trump’s other loose cannons. The other news yesterday was Trump declaring that the US pharmaceutical industry could charge no more in the US than in any other country. Is that on top of the sectoral pharma tariffs he wants? What does it mean for the extensive pharmaceutical trade between the US and both the UK and China? Nobody knows.

Even before that, literally the day after the UK deal was announced, the Trump administration launched yet another so-called Section 232 national security investigation, this time on aircraft, which could end in tariffs. Is the UK pre-exempted from those duties because of the deal? Nobody knows.

In theory the US has left itself quite a lot of leverage. The question is, especially with the threat of financial market turmoil an ever-present, whether it is willing to use it. The UK deal, which explicitly states it is not legally binding, leaves Britain vulnerable to being blackmailed into joint action against China if Washington decrees it. Simon Lester of the International Economic Law and Policy Blog has a great rundown here of the many uncertainties around the pact.

General terms for the US-UK trade deal
“Both the United States and the United Kingdom recognise that this document does not constitute a legally binding agreement”, the deal reads

With China, the US’s non-reciprocal “fentanyl tariffs” are still high and asymmetrically so. Beijing has an incentive to come back to the negotiating table and agree a further package of liberalisation — or indeed, as Treasury secretary Scott Bessent said on Sunday, agree to purchase more US exports.

This puts us straight back into the territory of the “phase 1” deal of Trump’s first presidency, in which China supposedly agreed a bunch of liberalising measures. The then US trade representative Robert Lighthizer made a big deal out of these, but they haven’t exactly stopped the US moaning about Chinese state capitalism. Beijing also agreed to buy a load of US soyabeans and other products, which it did not.

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Still, if there’s one thing we apparently know, it’s that the US is heading towards negotiating the tariffs down (though it seems to regard the 10 per cent baseline as inviolable). This will set it up for a nice old confrontation with perhaps Trump’s foremost target of ire, the EU, which has continued to insist the 10 per cent minimum is unacceptable.

Partly what happens now will depend on which of Trump’s team has the president’s ear on any given day, given their wildly contrasting views. In the endless game of Trade Official Tombola, you never know who’s going to be rattling round the Oval Office leading policy when decisions come to be made.

If it’s China warrior supreme Peter Navarro, the UK might find itself being led into a trade war and Beijing being denied more tariff cuts. If it’s commerce secretary Howard Lutnick, whose job seems to be to find out what Trump wants that day and cheerlead it, probably less so. Navarro clearly didn’t have much to do with the UK deal, since he was subsequently talking about the UK accepting beef and chicken produced to US hygiene standards, something Sir Keir Starmer’s government wisely refused to accept.

Remember the rules?

Finally, what does this mean for the rules-based world trading system? It’s not great that the US is agreeing bilateral deals all over the place. As I wrote last week, the UK pact is more directly damaging, since it involves violating the “most-favoured nation” principle by granting market access to the US it will not give to other countries.

The metaphor that immediately came to mind was Dane-geld, the protection money that Anglo-Saxon kings paid to Vikings in return for easing off the pillaging for a while.

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Rudyard Kipling famously had a downer on this tactic, contending that “we’ve proved it again and again, that if once you have paid him the Dane-geld, you never get rid of the Dane”. (My favourite feedback to my piece on this came from an actual mediaevalist historian, who argues that paying Dane-geld was an entirely sensible thing to do.)

The UK will need to keep scanning the horizon for signs of the striped Viking sails appearing again. It might turn out to be worth the gamble and the violation of MFN, or it might not. China might have hit on a better strategy (admittedly in a very different position), or might have not. Nobody knows anything.

Musk’s barbarians at the Gates

Bill Gates has revealed that he’s going to be accelerating spending and then closing the Gates Foundation, albeit not for 20 years. It’s a poignant moment. Trump’s (and specifically Elon Musk’s) savaging of US development assistance, including the US Agency for International Development (USAID) and the US programme for HIV-Aids relief, has left the sector gasping for air. Gates (correctly) last week said that Musk was killing children. By running down his fund, Gates hopes to ameliorate the impact of official aid cuts.

The traditional aid donors are turning away. The UK, which has already made a mockery of its aid budget by spending a chunk of the money on housing asylum seekers in Britain, has announced it will cut its spending yet further from 0.5 per cent to 0.3 per cent of gross national income. Former Labour prime ministers Tony Blair and Gordon Brown, who used to fall over each other competing to announce more aid, seem to have been silent on seeing their work undone, even though Brown had picked a public fight with Musk over the US’s aid cuts just weeks earlier. Not for the first time, Brown’s commitment to courage is stronger in theory than practice.

There’s no doubt the Gates Foundation did a tonne of good. (Disclosure: the FT has received money from Gates in the past.) In particular, being able to work with a longer time horizon than donor governments — which were under pressure to show results within a few years — enabled it to fund programmes such as the elimination of polio, which is slow and unspectacular work.

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But it took strong policy and ideological stances, a tactic that sat oddly with its philanthropic mission. The foundation publicly opposed the granting of a waiver on Covid-19 vaccines during the pandemic before reversing course, a highly contentious public policy issue to weigh in on.

More generally, the idea of private giving saving the world — remember the “philanthrocapitalism” of two decades ago? — now looks seriously naive. The new generation of tech crypto billionaires were seduced by the quasi-scientific approach of effective altruism, which has come under heavy and deserved criticism. The development sector is full of fear. There are stories of NGOs and think-tanks pulling controversial-sounding research papers or cutting the word “equity” from the title. It turns out it is a lot less independent of the state and governments than it thought.

Charted waters

Customs revenue is rising at US ports, but by nowhere near enough to replace a significant portion of receipts from the federal income tax as Trump wishes.

Line chart of Revenue collected at US customs ($bn) showing Lots of chips and dolls

Trade links

  • Chinese companies are purging their supply chains of foreign components, in case Trump’s trade war turns into a full-scale decoupling of its economy from the US’s.

  • Chinese exports jumped in April as its shipping companies pushed goods through ahead of trade talks and tariffs being imposed.

  • Speaking of which, Wired magazine looks at whether consumers should buy now to beat the tariffs or wait.

  • Treasury secretary Scott Bessent has been sent out to try to calm nervy investors. However, they are unlikely to have been reassured that the administration is on top of things by Stephen Miran, the chair of Trump’s Council of Economic Advisers, echoing Trump (before the deal with China) that the US doesn’t need a trade deal with China.

  • My FT colleague Martin Sandbu reminds us that a tax on imports is a tax on exports and will hit US companies selling abroad.


Trade Secrets is edited by Harvey Nriapia

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