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Opinion: Not even Putin can ignore this domestic reality

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Opinion: Not even Putin can ignore this domestic reality

Russian President Vladimir Putin could not get a parade within the Ukrainian capital, however a parade is coming quickly to Moscow and, no matter occurs on the battlefield, the Russian President is prone to declare victory throughout that occasion three weeks from now.

Might 9 is when Russia marks one in every of its most vital nationwide holidays, Victory Day — the anniversary of Germany’s give up on the finish of World Struggle II. The Kremlin has used that anniversary for greater than 70 years to commemorate the profitable heroism in opposition to the Nazis however, simply as importantly, to proclaim to the Russian individuals and to the nation’s pals and foes alike that Moscow’s leaders rule over an excellent and mighty energy.

Victory Day is all about navy muscle, and when it comes in the midst of a battle — even one which Russians are forbidden to name a “battle” and one which state propaganda falsely claims goes completely in accordance with plan — there’s nearly no different however to make use of the event to boast of victory.
US intelligence assessments, Russian international coverage analysts and customary sense all point out that Putin will use Might 9 as a type of self-imposed deadline in Ukraine. It is not a deadline to win the battle — that may seemingly not occur by then — however to fake Russia has received one thing. One thing main. One thing vital.
The marketing campaign over the following three weeks will focus sharply on Ukraine’s east, the Donbas area by the Russian border, the place there is a bigger focus of ethnic Russians and Russian audio system, and the place Russian-backed separatists have been waging battle in opposition to the Ukrainian state for eight years.
That is the place Putin will search a face-saving success, a concrete victory he can take to the Russian individuals to inform them he’s nonetheless the larger-than-life chief whose “particular navy operation,” with all of the hardship it’s inflicting for Russians — not to mention the calamity it’s inflicting on Ukraine — has been definitely worth the price ticket. Sadly, his desperation for a win seemingly signifies that subsequent three weeks are certain to carry even worse loss of life and destruction to Ukraine.
To date, Putin’s battle has produced nearly precisely the alternative of what he needed — strengthening Ukraine’s sense of nationhood, fortifying and unifying NATO and the West, tarnishing the picture of Russia’s navy forces and strategists, and on and on. And but, Putin has been principally profitable at concealing these details from the Russian individuals, shutting down unbiased media and prompting Russia’s real journalists to flee the nation. That has left nearly all Russians consuming solely state-controlled media, which is little greater than propaganda.

However even dictators want to fret about their home standing. If the Russian individuals view Putin’s Ukrainian journey because the catastrophe it has been up to now, his maintain on energy might weaken.

Even below state-controlled data, some details can finally turn out to be inconceivable to hide. Troopers will return residence to inform their tales to pals and kin. 1000’s is not going to return. And a small section of the inhabitants should still get its information from overseas. In the meantime, the Russian individuals, struggling in dire straits as a result of sanctions and the departure of many international corporations from their nation, might quickly attain an financial breaking level. Both means, slowly the reality will seep in.

That is why Putin urgently wants to indicate his marketing campaign as triumphant.

On Might 9, Putin nearly definitely will stand in Pink Sq., on a stage inbuilt entrance of the mausoleum the place Soviet chief Vladimir Lenin’s embalmed physique has lain on show for greater than 90 years, and fake all is nicely on his Western entrance. He’ll ceremonially assessment the troops — nonetheless many the navy can spare from the huge deployment in Ukraine.
We’ll see if Protection Minister Sergei Shoigu makes an look. Till final yr, he performed a significant function, his chest bedecked with medals, resplendent after bloody victories in Syria and Chechnya. As of late, he leads a humiliated power and chronic rumors of his demise refuse to die.
Russia was built on an empire of lies. That's the biggest hurdle to peace talks

On that day, Putin will seemingly announce one thing about Donbas. Maybe he’ll declare it has been “liberated” from the “Nazis” whom he claims rule Ukraine (an absurdly false declare, given the Ukrainian President is Jewish himself). Possibly Russia will maintain a phony referendum, because it did after it captured Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula in 2014. If Russia releases a referendum exhibiting most individuals in Donbas keen to affix Russia, bear in mind a latest unbiased survey doesn’t assist that declare.

Not lengthy after the 2021 Victory Day parade, Putin launched an article arguing that Russians and Ukrainians are the identical individuals. It was an ominous signal that Putin would attempt to erase Ukrainian identification, nationhood and its very borders quickly after. Most individuals in Donbas, the one space of Ukraine the place one would anticipate sympathy for Putin’s historic evaluation, soundly reject that view. In an unique CNN ballot, fewer than one in 5 agreed that Russians and Ukrainians are “one individuals.” Nonetheless, that may be a key component or rationale for Putin’s battle.

One other strategic victory for Putin might come if the port metropolis of Mariupol falls, as Russian forces attempt to set up a land hall between the territories they management in Donbas and Crimea. That might strengthen Moscow’s management over a big section of Ukraine, amounting to rather more than a symbolic victory. It might be an ethical, strategic and financial blow to Ukrainian sovereignty.

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To safe any such victory by Might 9, Putin will nearly definitely unleash much more fury on japanese Ukraine. That might be met with uncompromising ferocity by Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky advised CNN that Ukraine is not going to quit territory within the east to cease the battle. If Donbas falls, he believes, Putin will goal Kyiv once more.

To withstand the renewed onslaught, Ukraine wants much more assist from the West. And Ukraine wants it quick. Putin’s need to declare victory in three weeks will carry extra struggling. However it has additionally put the Russian chief in potential peril. No matter he proclaims on Might 9 must be credible. In any other case, Putin is aware of he’ll turn out to be dangerously susceptible.

In spite of everything, the parade is occurring in Moscow, not in Kyiv.

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Minneapolis Promises Police Overhaul in Deal With Justice Department

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Minneapolis Promises Police Overhaul in Deal With Justice Department

The Minneapolis City Council unanimously voted on Monday to overhaul its police department to address a pattern of systemic abuses, as part of an agreement with the Department of Justice.

Lawyers from the Department of Justice and the city, where George Floyd was killed in 2020 by a police officer, have raced in recent weeks to finalize terms of the deal, known as a consent decree, before President-elect Donald J. Trump takes office. The previous Trump administration opposed the use of consent decrees, and the fate of nearly a dozen other federal investigations into American police departments is uncertain.

Under the deal approved on Monday, the Minneapolis department promised to closely track and investigate allegations of police misconduct, rein in the use of force, and improve officer training.

“This agreement reflects what our community has asked for and what we know is necessary: real accountability and meaningful change,” Mayor Jacob Frey of Minneapolis said in a statement.

Federal oversight, the strongest tool available to overhaul police departments with histories of abuse, begins with an exhaustive civil rights investigation and a report of findings. Cities then usually agree to negotiate a consent decree, a court-enforced oversight agreement, in order to avoid a federal lawsuit.

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The Minneapolis decree was set in motion in the summer of 2023 after the Department of Justice issued a report accusing the city’s police department of routinely discriminating against Black and Native American residents, of needlessly using deadly force and of violating the First Amendment rights of protesters and journalists. The Minneapolis police union did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

City officials and lawyers from the Justice Department said they intended to present the deal to a federal judge, who will be responsible for overseeing its implementation.

During Mr. Trump’s first term in the White House, the Justice Department rejected such decrees, coming out in opposition to deals in Chicago and Baltimore and refraining from entering new ones. More recently, during a campaign rally last year, Mr. Trump said that in order to crack down on crime, the police should be allowed to be “extraordinarily rough,” and he spoke about the possibility of letting officers loose from constraints during “one really violent day.”

Officials in Minneapolis said they would remain committed to lasting change in the city’s police department, even if the Trump administration were to walk away from federal consent decrees. Several months before the Department of Justice report was issued, the city agreed to a policing overhaul as part of an agreement with the Minnesota Department of Human Rights.

Minneapolis set aside $27 million in its 2024 and 2025 budgets to pay for changes in response to the state and federal investigations. The city also paid $27 million to Mr. Floyd’s family in 2021 to settle their wrongful death lawsuit.

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Consent decrees were pursued aggressively under President Barack Obama, whose administration entered into 15 of the decrees in a time of a growing public outcry over police abuses.

After Mr. Trump’s administration steered away from such decrees, the Justice Department under the Biden administration sought to bring them back, launching a dozen civil rights investigations into police departments.

But the Biden administration has been slow to bring those efforts to a resolution, in some cases letting years elapse. The Justice Department’s civil rights division has released a flurry of investigative findings in recent weeks, covering cities like Memphis, where the department found excessive force and racial discrimination; Mount Vernon, N.Y., where it found illegal arrests and strip searches; and Oklahoma City, where it found chronic mistreatment of people with behavioral disabilities by the police.

Some cities, like Memphis and Phoenix, which was the subject of an investigation after an extraordinarily high number of shootings by the police, have balked at entering into oversight agreements. The agreements usually call for changes in a number of aspects of a police department’s operations, training, policies and discipline, and can take a decade to complete.

The Biden administration is currently enforcing 15 consent decrees reached under previous administrations, but has completed only one other new one besides Minneapolis, in Louisville, Ky.

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Those agreements and the department’s remaining investigations will be handed over to the Trump administration.

Devlin Barrett contributed reporting.

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Michael Barr to step down as Federal Reserve’s top Wall Street regulator

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Michael Barr to step down as Federal Reserve’s top Wall Street regulator

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Michael Barr is stepping down as Wall Street’s top regulator but will stay on as a governor at the Federal Reserve, the US central bank announced on Monday.

Barr will vacate his role as vice-chair for supervision at the end of February, cutting short a four-year term that began in July 2022. He will remain as a governor until that term is up in January 2032, meaning there will be no new vacancy on the seven-member board of governors.

Barr said in a statement that he was stepping down over concerns that a “risk of a dispute over the position could be a distraction” to the Fed’s goal to safeguard the US financial system.

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“In the current environment, I’ve determined that I would be more effective in serving the American people from my role as governor,” he said.

His decision comes just ahead of Donald Trump’s return to the White House. The president-elect has vowed to slash regulations in his second term, and his advisers were reportedly considering demoting Barr, although the transition team had not asked him to resign.

Barr’s move averts a potentially messy battle between Trump and the central bank if the president-elect had sought to force him aside after retaking office. The board’s general counsel believed that Barr would have prevailed if the issue were raised in litigation. His private counsel noted that fighting such a case would have been disruptive for the institution.

“It’s not about the legal merits, it’s about practically what it would mean for the Fed in that period of time,” Barr said in an interview with the Financial Times. “It just made sense to me to get in front of all of that and take myself out of the equation.”

Since Barr is staying on as a Fed governor, Trump will have to select a new vice-chair for supervision from among the current group of governors. They include officials such as Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman, both of who Trump selected for their jobs during his first term as president. Bowman, in particular, has emerged in recent years as a staunch opponent to many of the rule changes proposed by Barr — making her a potential choice for the job by the president-elect.

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The Fed on Monday said it would not make any “major rulemakings” until a successor is confirmed by the Senate.

Since Barr assumed the top regulatory role in the US government and pledged to impose more stringent rules on major lenders, the Fed has faced intense legal pressure from banking lobby groups. Some of those groups filed a lawsuit in December against the central bank over its framework for stress tests, which aim to identify vulnerabilities at specific organisations in times of economic or financial strain.

The Fed was already considering what it described as “significant changes” to the stress tests in order to reduce volatility around the results and make the process more transparent. Changes could include amending models that calculate hypothetical losses for banks, averaging results over two years to lessen the risk of large year-on-year swings, and allowing the public to comment on hypothetical scenarios each year before they are finalised.

Last year, Barr was forced to revise his landmark proposal to raise capital requirements on lenders such as JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs. A bipartisan group of US lawmakers, chief executives at the biggest banks and lobbyists had launched a ferocious opposition campaign against the implementation of the so-called Basel III Endgame — the final rules tied to an international effort to shore up the sector in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis.

In September, Barr unveiled proposals that would have roughly halved the increase in capital requirements to 9 per cent for the largest US banks, versus the 19 per cent initially floated.

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Asked about the fate of the Basel rules, Barr said he was “hopeful that the process continues to move forward”.

Republicans cheered Barr’s decision to step down. Tim Scott, the head of the powerful Senate Committee on Banking, which oversees the Fed, said Barr had “failed to meet the responsibilities of his position”.

“I stand ready to work with President Trump to ensure we have responsible financial regulators at the helm,” Scott said in a statement.

Congressman French Hill from Arkansas, who chairs the House Financial Services Committee, said he was “pleased” to hear of Barr’s resignation.

“It’s my preference that his nominee is committed to tailoring bank regulatory policies and implementing a balanced approach to prudential supervision,” he added.

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Ian Katz at Capital Alpha Partners said Barr’s resignation set the stage for “lighter touch” oversight from the Fed. Bowman was the “most obvious candidate for the job if she wants it”, he added.

Barr said in his resignation letter to President Joe Biden that it had been an “honour and a privilege to serve as the Federal Reserve board’s vice-chair for supervision, and to work with colleagues to help maintain the stability and strength of the US financial system so that it can meet the needs of American families and businesses”.

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‘America’s democracy stood’: Kamala Harris speaks after Congress certifies Trump win – video

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‘America’s democracy stood’: Kamala Harris speaks after Congress certifies Trump win – video

Kamala Harris said she was simply doing her constitutional duty in presiding over the certification of her presidential election defeat by Donald Trump on Monday. The certification was over quickly after no Democrats rose to object the results from any state – in contrast with four years ago when dozens of Republican lawmakers formally disputed Joe Biden’s victory in key swing states

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