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Most Nato members to hit spending target as alliance braces for potential Trump win

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Most Nato members to hit spending target as alliance braces for potential Trump win

Most Nato member states will hit the alliance’s defence spending target as it prepares for more Russian aggression and braces for the potential election of Donald Trump.

Eighteen of the US-led military alliance’s 31 members will meet the target of spending 2 per cent of gross domestic product on defence this year, Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said on Wednesday. That includes Germany, Europe’s biggest economy, for the first time.

That equates to Nato’s European members spending a combined total of $380bn on defence, a record amount. “We are making real progress . . . European allies are spending more,” Stoltenberg said.

That number is likely to rise as budgets are adjusted, according to three alliance diplomats. “Nato expects about two-thirds of allies to hit 2 per cent in 2024,” an alliance official said.

Nato’s spending rose markedly after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine but Trump’s term in office in 2017-21 also brought a significant uptick as the US president harangued his European allies for failing to spend enough.

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In 2016, only five countries met the target. Today Poland spends 3.9 per cent of GDP on defence, ahead of the US itself on 3.5 per cent. Other countries such as Spain trail, spending just above 1 per cent.

“We have to listen and take note of the following: The criticism that we hear [from Trump] is not primarily about Nato. It is about Nato allies not spending enough,” Stoltenberg said on Wednesday. “And that is a valid point . . . that European allies and Canada have to spend more.”

A declared Nato-sceptic and isolationist, Trump — the presumptive Republican nominee in November’s US presidential election — has previously threatened to withdraw from the military alliance that guarantees Europe’s defence and security.

His rhetoric has continued into the current race for the White House. European leaders were shocked last week when Trump told a campaign rally that he would encourage Russia to do “whatever the hell they want” with Nato members who fail to meet the target.

As Trump performs strongly in opinion polls against incumbent Joe Biden, he is again causing trepidation at Nato’s headquarters in Brussels.

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European diplomats and officials say that continuing their upwards spending trajectory is the first of a three-plank Trump containment strategy.

Second, Nato must pivot to focus more on issues that are most important to Trump, such as containing China or tackling terrorism. Finally, allies understand that they must indulge in flattery and charm to win his admiration.

“There’s a lot of talk about [Trump],” said one senior Nato diplomat. “What is the best way to handle a future President Trump? . . . Basically a combination of flattery and a firm hand.”

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Despite the increased defence spending since Russia invaded Ukraine, the sole guarantor of Europe’s security remains the US commitment to Nato, with no substitute for its 80,000 troops on the continent, the scale and speed of how it can deploy materiel, and its nuclear weapons capability.

“You can’t worry about the rhetoric too much, but instead focus on the points being made and make sure you give credit to Trump if and when he is right,” said Oana Lungescu, Nato’s chief spokesperson from 2010 to 2023.

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“His priorities were pretty clear from the start. It’s about identifying those priorities, putting them in the alliance context and making sure that addressing them will strengthen the alliance,” she added.

Trump’s remarks on Russia have “underscored an existing anxiety about the implications of another Trump presidency,” said Ian Lesser, vice-president of the German Marshall Fund. “It could be more difficult on many levels. For one, Europe is now at war. And another Trump administration is likely to be more pointed in many policy areas and more capable of carrying them out.”

Trump’s first Nato summit, in Brussels in 2017, is remembered for the new US president lashing out at his allies for “owing” money to the US, failing to make reference to its Article 5 mutual-defence clause, and making disparaging remarks about the cost of the alliance’s new headquarters.

The following year, leaders spent the summit telling Trump he was the reason they would be increasing their defence spending. The stakes were high: the summit took place just before he flew to Helsinki to meet Russia’s President Vladimir Putin.

“The people have stepped up today like they’ve never stepped up before . . . $33bn more they’re paying,” Trump told reporters after the 2018 summit. “Everybody in the room thanked me. There’s a great collegial spirit in that room that I don’t think they’ve had in many years.”

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Donald Trump at Ramstein Air Base in Germany in 2018. He had been reported at the time to be planning to withdraw a quarter of US troops from the country © Andrew Harnik/AP

A year later, Trump’s rhetoric on Nato had softened. He even defended the alliance in 2019, saying it “serves a great purpose” after French President Emmanuel Macron declared it “brain-dead”.

Trump’s sometimes difficult relationship with Macron, and his negative attitude towards Germany, were features of his first presidency that diplomats say could be repeated.

But other Nato leaders may be able to leverage closer relations with his possible administration.

Asked about Trump’s comments this weekend, Hungarian premier Viktor Orbán, a fan of the former US president who has maintained close ties to Putin and has held up EU aid for Ukraine, indicated he was not concerned. “We understand what Mr President said, and we pay our dues,” a spokesperson for Orbán told the FT. Hungary is among the Nato countries spending more than 2 per cent on defence.

Stefano Stefanini, Italy’s former ambassador to Nato, said Trump’s re-election would be a defining moment for Europe’s postwar security order.

“The problem Trump raises . . . is the refusal of America, of Trump’s America, to commit itself to the defence of Europe in case of aggression,” he said. The risk for Nato would be of it fracturing if capitals were individually to seek to curry favour with Trump, he added.

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The potential need to mollify Trump is being factored into discussions over who succeeds Jens Stoltenberg, Nato’s secretary-general, when he steps down later this year. Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte, who had a productive relationship with Trump during his time in office and has recently praised his stance towards Nato spending targets, is widely considered as likely to get the job.

Dubbed the “Trump whisperer” for keeping the alliance together during his presidency, Stoltenberg adopted a strategy of targeted media messaging to make the case for Nato’s value. He peppered his appearances on American television channels favoured by Trump with words such as “strong”, “fair”, “win” and “leadership”.

His team also commissioned a bar chart showing increased defence spending in green and budget cuts in red. Trump’s years in office were all green: he would regularly cite it in his speeches and press events.

“Fundamentally, it’s about signalling why he has an interest in doing something that we also want,” said a senior European official who was involved in negotiations with Trump during his first term. “On almost all things he’s more transactional than ideological.”

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Satellite images show Iran school strike hit more buildings than earlier reported

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Satellite images show Iran school strike hit more buildings than earlier reported

The bombing of an Iranian elementary school that killed some 165 people, many of them schoolgirls, included more targets near the school than has been initially reported, a review of commercial satellite imagery by NPR has found.

The images suggest that the school was hit on Saturday as part of a precision airstrike on a neighboring Iranian military complex — and that it may have been struck as a result of outdated targeting information.

The new images come from the company Planet and are of the city of Minab, located in southeastern Iran. They show that a health clinic and other buildings near the school were also struck. Three independent experts confirmed NPR’s analysis of the additional strike points.

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The strike points “look like pretty clean detonation centroids,” said Corey Scher, a postdoctoral researcher at the Conflict Ecology laboratory at Oregon State University.

“These certainly appear like detonation sites,” agreed Scher’s colleague, Oregon State associate professor Jamon Van Den Hoek.

Jeffrey Lewis, a professor at Middlebury College who specializes in satellite imagery, said the imagery was consistent with a precision airstrike.

The images show “very precise targeting,” Lewis told NPR. “Almost all the buildings [in the compound] are hit.”

A satellite image of an Iranian Revolutionary Guard compound taken on March 4.

A satellite image of an Iranian Revolutionary Guard compound taken on March 4, several days after an airstrike destroyed a school on the edge of the compound. The image reveals that half a dozen other buildings in addition to the school were struck.

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Iranian state media said 165 people died in the bombing, which struck a girls’ school. The school was located within less than 100 yards of the perimeter of an Iranian Revolutionary Guard naval base, according to satellite images and publicly available information. The clinic was also located within the base perimeter, although both facilities had been walled off from the base.

Israel has denied involvement. “We are not aware at the moment of any IDF operation in that area,” Israel Defense Forces spokesperson Nadav Shoshani told NPR on Monday. “I don’t know who’s responsible for the bombing.”

At a press conference Wednesday morning, U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said that the U.S. is looking into what happened at the school. “All I know, all I can say, is that we’re investigating that,” Hegseth said. “We, of course, never target civilian targets.”

Given Minab’s location in the southeastern part of Iran, Lewis believes it’s more likely the U.S. would have conducted the strike than Israel. As one gets farther south and east in Iran, “a strike is much more likely to be a U.S. strike than an Israeli strike because of the type of munitions and the geographic location,” he said.

Esmail Baghaei, the spokesman for Iran’s Foreign Ministry, called the strike “deliberate” and said that the U.S. and Israel bombed the school in part to tie up Iranian forces in the region with rescue efforts. “To call the attack on the girls school merely a ‘war crime’ does not capture the sheer evil and depravity of such a crime,” he said.

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But Lewis said it’s more likely that the strike was the result of an error. Satellite images show that the school and clinic buildings were both once part of the base. The school was separated from the base by a wall between 2013 and 2016. The clinic was walled off between 2022 and 2024.

Lewis believes it’s possible American military planners had not updated their target sets.

“There are thousands of targets across Iran, and so there will be teams in the United States and Israel that are responsible for tracking those targets and updating them,” he said. “It’s possible that the target didn’t get updated.”

The Pentagon did not immediately respond to NPR’s request for additional information about the strike.

NPR’s Arezou Rezvani and NPR’s RAD team contributed to this report.

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Mojtaba Khamenei, son of former supreme leader, tipped to become Iran’s next head of state

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Mojtaba Khamenei, son of former supreme leader, tipped to become Iran’s next head of state

Mojtaba Khamenei, the second son of the assassinated Ali Khamenei, is being heavily tipped to succeed his father as supreme leader of Iran, which would pitch a hardliner into the task of steering the Islamic republic through the most turbulent period in its 48-year history and offer a powerful signal that, for now, it has no intention of changing course.

No official confirmation has been given and the announcement may be delayed until after the funeral of Ali Khamenei, which was on Wednesday postponed.

His son is believed to have been the choice of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), and the Israeli defence minister, Gideon Saar, has warned he will be assassinated.

Ayatollah Seyed Khatani, a member of the Assembly of Experts, the body that chooses the new supreme leader, said the assembly was close to selecting a leader.

Rigid in his anti-western views, Mojtaba Khamenei is not the candidate Donald Trump would have wanted. Marco Rubio, the US secretary of state, said on Tuesday that Iran was run by “religious fanatic lunatics” – and Khamenei’s appointment is hardly likely to dispel that opinion.

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‘They were going to attack first’: Trump gives update on Iran – video

The choice of supreme leader is made by the 88-strong Assembly of Experts, who in this case are picking from a field of six possible candidates. His election would be a powerful if unsurprising symbol that the government is not looking to find an accommodation with America.

Trump has said the worst-case scenario would be if Khamenei’s successor was “as bad as the previous person”.

There has been speculation for more than a decade that he would be his father’s successor, which grew when Ebrahim Raisi, the elected president and favourite of Khamenei, was killed in a helicopter crash.

Mojtaba Khamenei was born in 1969 and studied theology after graduating from high school. At the age of 17, he went to serve in the Iran-Iraq war, but it was not until the late 1990s that he came to be recognised as a public figure in his own right.

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After the landslide defeat of Khamenei’s preferred candidate, Ali Akbar Nategh Nuri, in the 1997 presidential election, where he won only 25% of the final vote, various conservative Iranian groups realised the need to make changes to their structures and Mojtaba Khamenei was central to that project.

He was also seen as instrumental by reformists in suppressing the protests in 2009 that came after allegations the presidential election had been rigged, with his name chanted in the streets as one of those responsible. Mostafa Tajzadeh, a senior member of Iran’s reformist parties who was imprisoned after the vote, alleged that his and his wife, Fakhr al-Sadat Mohtashamipour’s, legal case was under the direct supervision of Mojtaba Khamenei.

In 2022 he was given the title of ayatollah – essential to his promotion. By then he was a regular figure by his father’s side at political meetings, as well as playing an influential role in the Islamic Republic’s Broadcasting Corporation, the government’s official media outlet often criticised for churning out dull political propaganda that many Iranians reject in favour of overseas satellite channels. He has also played a central role in the administration of his father’s substantial financial empire.

His closest political allies are Ahmad Vahidi, the newly appointed IRGC commander; Hossein Taeb, a former head of the IRGC’s intelligence organisation; and Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the current speaker of the parliament.

His rumoured appointment and its hereditary nature has long been resisted by reformists. The former prime minister Mir Hossein Mousavi, referring to the long history of rumours about Mojtaba Khamenei succeeding his father as leader, wrote in 2022: “News of this conspiracy have been heard for 13 years. If they are not truly pursuing it, why don’t they deny such an intention once and for all?”

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The Assembly of Experts, in response, denounced “meaninglessness of doubts” and said the assembly would select only “the most qualified and the most suitable”.

Israel on Tuesday struck the building in the Iranian city of Qom, one of Shia Islam’s main seats of power, where the assembly was scheduled, but the building was empty, according to IRGC-affiliated media.

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Video: Senators Question Kristi Noem on ICE Immigration Tactics

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Video: Senators Question Kristi Noem on ICE Immigration Tactics

new video loaded: Senators Question Kristi Noem on ICE Immigration Tactics

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Senators Question Kristi Noem on ICE Immigration Tactics

Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem repeatedly refused to apologize for suggesting that Alex Pretti and Renee Good, two U.S. citizens shot and killed by agents, were domestic terrorists.

What we’ve seen is a disaster under your leadership, Ms. Noem. A disaster. What we’ve seen is innocent people getting detained that turn out are American citizens. I could talk about the culture that’s been created here. After the killings of Renee Good and Alex Pretti, when I spoke to Alex’s parents, they told me that you calling him a domestic terrorist — this was directly from them — the day after he was killed, a nurse in our V.A., Alex — one of the most hurtful things they could ever imagine was said by you about their son. Do you have anything you want to say to Alex Pretti’s parents? Ma’am, I did not call him a domestic terrorist. I said It appeared to be an incident of — I think the parents saw it for what it was. In a hearing — recent hearing before the HSGAC committee, C.B.P. and ICE officials testified under oath that their agencies did not inform you that Pretti was a domestic terrorist — during that hearing, stated during that hearing, I was getting reports from the ground, from agents at the scene, and I would say that it was a chaotic scene. How did you think that calling them domestic terrorists at that scene was somehow going to calm the situation? The fact that you can’t admit to a mistake, which looks like under investigation, it’s going to prove that Ms. Good and Mr. Pretti probably should not have been shot in the face and in the back. Law enforcement needs to learn from that. You don’t protect them by not looking after the facts.

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Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem repeatedly refused to apologize for suggesting that Alex Pretti and Renee Good, two U.S. citizens shot and killed by agents, were domestic terrorists.

By Christina Kelso and Jackeline Luna

March 3, 2026

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