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Maps Pinpoint Where Democrats Lost Ground Since 2020 in 11 Big Cities

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Maps Pinpoint Where Democrats Lost Ground Since 2020 in 11 Big Cities

To offset gains that Donald J. Trump made in rural and suburban America in 2024, Kamala Harris needed to do better than Joseph R. Biden Jr.’s strong 2020 electoral performance in cities. But she ended up doing worse in urban America — getting 15 percent fewer votes than Mr. Biden in some cities. A New York Times analysis of precinct-level election results — the most detailed available publicly — across 11 cities shows how it happened.

In Atlanta and its suburbs, both candidates found new voters, but Ms. Harris’s gains in precincts where white voters were the largest racial or ethnic group were canceled out by losses elsewhere. Mr. Trump’s uptick in support from voters of color across Atlanta, along with improved performance in the state’s rural areas, was enough for him to win Georgia — a swing state he narrowly lost to Mr. Biden in 2020.

Chicago is emblematic of the chief problem the Harris campaign faced in urban areas — a big decline in votes in Democratic strongholds. Even though Ms. Harris won the city by a 58-point margin, she lost ground in nearly every precinct. She picked up just 127,000 votes in Mexican and Puerto Rican neighborhoods, 47,000 fewer than Mr. Biden earned in 2020. Mr. Trump made small gains across the board, but Ms. Harris’s losses were much steeper.

In Wayne County, which includes Detroit, Ms. Harris struggled to capture the support of Arab-American voters, many of whom had been turned off by the Biden administration’s Middle East policies. In a swath of voting precincts spanning Dearborn and Hamtramck, which have the nation’s highest concentration of people of Arab ancestry, Mr. Trump picked up thousands of votes compared with 2020, while the Democratic Party lost an even bigger number. Countywide, precincts with high shares of Arab residents made up just 6 percent of the electorate but accounted for more than 40 percent of the decline in Democratic votes.

The story in Houston was more about Ms. Harris underperforming Mr. Biden’s 2020 vote totals than about Mr. Trump achieving sharp gains, especially in Latino neighborhoods and lower-income areas. Ms. Harris’s vote total was down 12 percent overall from Mr. Biden’s in 2020, and 28 percent in low-income neighborhoods where Latino voters are the largest group.

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In this rapidly growing area, red shifts were most evident in Latino neighborhoods. While Ms. Harris matched Mr. Biden’s vote total overall, Mr. Trump made significant gains throughout the area.

Mr. Trump was already popular with the county’s large Cuban American population, but in this election, his support surged with Latino voters from other groups as well. He received 20 percent more total votes in Latino neighborhoods where Cubans are not the predominant Latino group, like those with large populations of Nicaraguans or Colombians. This helped him flip Miami-Dade County for the first time since 1988, further cementing Florida as a decisively red state.

Mr. Trump saw gains on the city’s South Side, where there are Latino precincts with large Mexican populations, and his increased support coincided with Ms. Harris’s losses there. Ms. Harris picked up votes in some white neighborhoods, but those gains were erased by the losses elsewhere, allowing Mr. Trump to cut into the Democratic margin and flip the state back to the Republican column.

Latino neighborhoods accounted for nearly half of Mr. Trump’s total gains in his home city compared with 2020. While Ms. Harris won these precincts by a 40-point margin, that fell short of Mr. Biden’s 66-point margin in 2020. In a city with a diverse population of Latinos, Mr. Trump’s vote share grew among all of them — Puerto Rican neighborhoods, Dominican neighborhoods and Mexican neighborhoods alike.

Ms. Harris outperformed Mr. Biden in some parts of the city — especially in white precincts near the downtown area. White voters were the largest racial or ethnic group in 24 of the 25 precincts where she gained the most votes. But Ms. Harris lost some support in Latino and Black neighborhoods elsewhere in the city, and the Democratic margin fell to 59 points, from 64 points in 2020.

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More than half of the Democratic vote decline occurred in Latino neighborhoods, even though these precincts accounted for just 16 percent of the overall vote total. Ms. Harris still won Latino neighborhoods by 23 points, but it was a 12-point drop from the 2020 margin of Mr. Biden, who narrowly won Arizona, a Republican stronghold won only twice by Democrats since 1952.

Even this city — known for its liberalism and its importance to Ms. Harris’s career — swung toward Mr. Trump. Ms. Harris’s losses were especially noticeable in the city’s Asian neighborhoods, which are predominantly Chinese but include thousands of voters from other groups. Though Ms. Harris still won the city by a 68-point margin, Mr. Trump gained more than 6,000 votes on top of her vote losses.

Methodology

The 2024 precinct results are from: Georgia’s Secretary of State (Atlanta); Chicago’s Board of Election Commissioners; Wayne County Clerk (Detroit); Harris County Clerk (Houston); Clark County Election Department (Las Vegas); Miami-Dade County’s Supervisor of Elections (Miami); Milwaukee County Clerk; New York City Board of Elections; Philadelphia City Commissioners; Maricopa County Recorder’s Office (Phoenix); San Francisco’s Department of Elections (San Francisco). The 2024 precinct boundary files are from state and local officials.

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For Milwaukee’s 2020 precinct results, The Times used a data set by John Johnson, a research fellow in the Marquette Law School Lubar Center, based on the county clerk and the Wisconsin Legislative Technology Services Bureau. For New York City, estimates for 2020 election results within 2024 precinct boundaries are from an analysis by the Center for Urban Research at CUNY.

For all other areas, the 2020 precinct results are from the Voting and Election Science Team. In these areas, The Times used data from the 2020 decennial census to create a population-weighted estimate of the 2020 vote within 2024 precinct boundaries. These estimates were used to calculate the change in the number of votes and the shift in margin for each candidate in 2024, compared with 2020.

The city of Detroit reports its absentee votes in counting boards, which often span multiple precincts. For the 2024 data, The Times obtained a list of precincts that correspond to each counting board from the Detroit City Clerk, and precinct results were aggregated into Counting Boards. For 2020, the list of precincts that correspond to each counting board was obtained from OpenElections.

Precinct-level estimates for income and education, as well as broad groupings of race and ethnicity, are based on the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2018-22 American Community Survey and information from L2, a nonpartisan voter data vendor. The Times calculated these statistics, which approximate the average demographics of the electorate in a given precinct, by obtaining the demographics of each registered voter’s census block group and aggregating this data to the precinct level.

Precincts are listed as white, Black, Asian or Latino if that group is the most populous. Some precincts are further identified by a subgroup. For example, a precinct is identified as Chinese if a majority of people in the precinct are Asian, and Chinese are the most populous of the Asian subgroups and also represent at least 25 percent of the neighborhood’s population.

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Likewise, Arab precincts in Wayne County were selected if at least 25 percent of residents identified as a member of an Arab ancestry group and Arab ancestry is more common than any other major ancestry group.

The arrow maps showing the shift in margin from 2020 to 2024 exclude precincts where fewer than 100 votes were cast in 2024 across the two candidates.

Changes in the number of ballots cast in a given area could be attributed to many factors, including changes in population. Some cities, like Milwaukee and Philadelphia, have experienced population decline since 2020, while others such as Las Vegas and Phoenix have seen sharp growth. Because it is difficult to estimate with precision the changes in voter population at the precinct level over the years, The Times analysis of turnout examines total votes cast.

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South Korean investigators attempt to arrest President Yoon Suk Yeol

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South Korean investigators attempt to arrest President Yoon Suk Yeol

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South Korean investigators were attempting to arrest President Yoon Suk Yeol as part of a probe into alleged treason and abuse of power after his failed attempt last month to impose martial law.

About 30 investigators from the Corruption Investigation Office for High-ranking Officials and 120 police officers entered Yoon’s residence in central Seoul early on Friday, state-run Yonhap News said.

Police officers were clashing with the president’s security officers, according to YTN News. Hundreds of Yoon’s supporters rallied outside his residence, shouting “impeachment invalid” and “protect Yoon”.

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If arrested, Yoon will be the first incumbent South Korean president to be detained.

Yoon unleashed an acute political crisis in South Korea with his failed effort to impose martial law. He was impeached by parliament last month, but the move has to be approved by the country’s constitutional court.

The independent anti-corruption agency is expected to question Yoon over possible insurrection after he allegedly dispatched troops to the national assembly in an attempt to prevent lawmakers from rejecting his shortlived martial law decree.

Yoon’s lawyers said on Friday that the agency’s attempt to arrest the president was “illegal and invalid” and they would take a legal action against the move.

On Wednesday Yoon sent a letter to hundreds of his supporters rallying outside his residence. “The country is in jeopardy due to anti-state forces. I’ll fight until the end to protect the nation together with you,” he wrote.

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Under South Korea’s constitution, the president is immune from criminal prosecution, except when facing allegations of rebellion or treason. Acting president Choi Sang-mok on Tuesday appointed two justices to the court, filling two of the vacancies at the nine-member constitutional court.

The court’s eight sitting justices will hold a second hearing on Friday on whether to remove Yoon from office. The court has until June to reach a verdict though this deadline could be extended. A minimum six votes are required to approve Yoon’s impeachment. If he is removed from office, a presidential election must be held within 60 days.

The political turmoil has weighed on the South Korean economy, which is facing higher US tariffs in Donald Trump’s second term in the White House. The government on Thursday revised down this year’s growth forecast to 1.8 per cent from 2.2 per cent and is considering drawing up an extra budget to boost sluggish domestic consumption.

Choi on Friday ordered officials to take measures to stabilise financial markets “swiftly and boldly” in case of heightened volatility. He said he would continue to meet high-ranking financial officials including Bank of Korea governor Rhee Chang-yong every week to monitor market conditions. Rhee on Thursday warned of growing downside risks for the Korean economy and said the bank would be “flexible” with the pace of rate cuts in the face of “unprecedented” political and economic uncertainties. 

South Korea’s stocks and currency were among the worst performers in Asia last year, in part because of the political chaos, with the Kospi stock index down nearly 10 per cent and the won trading near its lowest level since 2009. The country’s stock market opened slightly higher on Friday.

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Photos: Bourbon Street reopens in New Orleans after truck attack

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Photos: Bourbon Street reopens in New Orleans after truck attack

A woman walks down Bourbon Street while burning sage to cleanse the area following the attack.

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Bourbon Street re-opened in New Orleans Thursday afternoon, more than 24 hours after Wednesday morning’s attack by a Texas man driving a Ford pickup truck plowed into a crowd of New Year’s revelers.

The FBI cleared the scene Thursday, just in time for kickoff of the Sugar Bowl NCAA College Football Playoff game between the Georgia Bulldogs and Notre Dame Fighting Irish. Residents and tourists soon flocked back to the historic street in the heart of the city’s French Quarter.

A brass band plays on the corner of Canal and Bourbon streets to a large crowd.

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A member of the band said they were there to spread joy and entertain after the tragedy.⁠

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People walk down the re-opened Bourbon Street after New Orleans Police barricades are moved out of the way.⁠

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Law enforcement officers watch as barricades are collected with a forklift from Bourbon Street after its reopening.

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Two people walk by a New Orleans Police barricade still in place on Bourbon Street. The street is currently open only to foot traffic. ⁠

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The sun sets over the corner of Canal and Bourbon streets in New Orleans, still blockaded by law enforcement. Local and national media crews set their cameras up in hopes of getting interviews with officials and passersby. ⁠

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Video: Several Injured in Shooting Outside Queens Event Space

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Video: Several Injured in Shooting Outside Queens Event Space

new video loaded: Several Injured in Shooting Outside Queens Event Space

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Several Injured in Shooting Outside Queens Event Space

The police said the suspects escaped in a vehicle after the shooting Wednesday evening.

The venue was at capacity, and a queue of about 15 people formed outside awaiting as other attendees exited. Four males were walking eastbound on 91st Avenue onto 144th Place towards the venue. Three to four males then opened fire over 30 times in the direction of the group standing outside the event space, striking multiple victims.

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