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Maps Pinpoint Where Democrats Lost Ground Since 2020 in 11 Big Cities

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Maps Pinpoint Where Democrats Lost Ground Since 2020 in 11 Big Cities

To offset gains that Donald J. Trump made in rural and suburban America in 2024, Kamala Harris needed to do better than Joseph R. Biden Jr.’s strong 2020 electoral performance in cities. But she ended up doing worse in urban America — getting 15 percent fewer votes than Mr. Biden in some cities. A New York Times analysis of precinct-level election results — the most detailed available publicly — across 11 cities shows how it happened.

In Atlanta and its suburbs, both candidates found new voters, but Ms. Harris’s gains in precincts where white voters were the largest racial or ethnic group were canceled out by losses elsewhere. Mr. Trump’s uptick in support from voters of color across Atlanta, along with improved performance in the state’s rural areas, was enough for him to win Georgia — a swing state he narrowly lost to Mr. Biden in 2020.

Chicago is emblematic of the chief problem the Harris campaign faced in urban areas — a big decline in votes in Democratic strongholds. Even though Ms. Harris won the city by a 58-point margin, she lost ground in nearly every precinct. She picked up just 127,000 votes in Mexican and Puerto Rican neighborhoods, 47,000 fewer than Mr. Biden earned in 2020. Mr. Trump made small gains across the board, but Ms. Harris’s losses were much steeper.

In Wayne County, which includes Detroit, Ms. Harris struggled to capture the support of Arab-American voters, many of whom had been turned off by the Biden administration’s Middle East policies. In a swath of voting precincts spanning Dearborn and Hamtramck, which have the nation’s highest concentration of people of Arab ancestry, Mr. Trump picked up thousands of votes compared with 2020, while the Democratic Party lost an even bigger number. Countywide, precincts with high shares of Arab residents made up just 6 percent of the electorate but accounted for more than 40 percent of the decline in Democratic votes.

The story in Houston was more about Ms. Harris underperforming Mr. Biden’s 2020 vote totals than about Mr. Trump achieving sharp gains, especially in Latino neighborhoods and lower-income areas. Ms. Harris’s vote total was down 12 percent overall from Mr. Biden’s in 2020, and 28 percent in low-income neighborhoods where Latino voters are the largest group.

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In this rapidly growing area, red shifts were most evident in Latino neighborhoods. While Ms. Harris matched Mr. Biden’s vote total overall, Mr. Trump made significant gains throughout the area.

Mr. Trump was already popular with the county’s large Cuban American population, but in this election, his support surged with Latino voters from other groups as well. He received 20 percent more total votes in Latino neighborhoods where Cubans are not the predominant Latino group, like those with large populations of Nicaraguans or Colombians. This helped him flip Miami-Dade County for the first time since 1988, further cementing Florida as a decisively red state.

Mr. Trump saw gains on the city’s South Side, where there are Latino precincts with large Mexican populations, and his increased support coincided with Ms. Harris’s losses there. Ms. Harris picked up votes in some white neighborhoods, but those gains were erased by the losses elsewhere, allowing Mr. Trump to cut into the Democratic margin and flip the state back to the Republican column.

Latino neighborhoods accounted for nearly half of Mr. Trump’s total gains in his home city compared with 2020. While Ms. Harris won these precincts by a 40-point margin, that fell short of Mr. Biden’s 66-point margin in 2020. In a city with a diverse population of Latinos, Mr. Trump’s vote share grew among all of them — Puerto Rican neighborhoods, Dominican neighborhoods and Mexican neighborhoods alike.

Ms. Harris outperformed Mr. Biden in some parts of the city — especially in white precincts near the downtown area. White voters were the largest racial or ethnic group in 24 of the 25 precincts where she gained the most votes. But Ms. Harris lost some support in Latino and Black neighborhoods elsewhere in the city, and the Democratic margin fell to 59 points, from 64 points in 2020.

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More than half of the Democratic vote decline occurred in Latino neighborhoods, even though these precincts accounted for just 16 percent of the overall vote total. Ms. Harris still won Latino neighborhoods by 23 points, but it was a 12-point drop from the 2020 margin of Mr. Biden, who narrowly won Arizona, a Republican stronghold won only twice by Democrats since 1952.

Even this city — known for its liberalism and its importance to Ms. Harris’s career — swung toward Mr. Trump. Ms. Harris’s losses were especially noticeable in the city’s Asian neighborhoods, which are predominantly Chinese but include thousands of voters from other groups. Though Ms. Harris still won the city by a 68-point margin, Mr. Trump gained more than 6,000 votes on top of her vote losses.

Methodology

The 2024 precinct results are from: Georgia’s Secretary of State (Atlanta); Chicago’s Board of Election Commissioners; Wayne County Clerk (Detroit); Harris County Clerk (Houston); Clark County Election Department (Las Vegas); Miami-Dade County’s Supervisor of Elections (Miami); Milwaukee County Clerk; New York City Board of Elections; Philadelphia City Commissioners; Maricopa County Recorder’s Office (Phoenix); San Francisco’s Department of Elections (San Francisco). The 2024 precinct boundary files are from state and local officials.

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For Milwaukee’s 2020 precinct results, The Times used a data set by John Johnson, a research fellow in the Marquette Law School Lubar Center, based on the county clerk and the Wisconsin Legislative Technology Services Bureau. For New York City, estimates for 2020 election results within 2024 precinct boundaries are from an analysis by the Center for Urban Research at CUNY.

For all other areas, the 2020 precinct results are from the Voting and Election Science Team. In these areas, The Times used data from the 2020 decennial census to create a population-weighted estimate of the 2020 vote within 2024 precinct boundaries. These estimates were used to calculate the change in the number of votes and the shift in margin for each candidate in 2024, compared with 2020.

The city of Detroit reports its absentee votes in counting boards, which often span multiple precincts. For the 2024 data, The Times obtained a list of precincts that correspond to each counting board from the Detroit City Clerk, and precinct results were aggregated into Counting Boards. For 2020, the list of precincts that correspond to each counting board was obtained from OpenElections.

Precinct-level estimates for income and education, as well as broad groupings of race and ethnicity, are based on the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2018-22 American Community Survey and information from L2, a nonpartisan voter data vendor. The Times calculated these statistics, which approximate the average demographics of the electorate in a given precinct, by obtaining the demographics of each registered voter’s census block group and aggregating this data to the precinct level.

Precincts are listed as white, Black, Asian or Latino if that group is the most populous. Some precincts are further identified by a subgroup. For example, a precinct is identified as Chinese if a majority of people in the precinct are Asian, and Chinese are the most populous of the Asian subgroups and also represent at least 25 percent of the neighborhood’s population.

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Likewise, Arab precincts in Wayne County were selected if at least 25 percent of residents identified as a member of an Arab ancestry group and Arab ancestry is more common than any other major ancestry group.

The arrow maps showing the shift in margin from 2020 to 2024 exclude precincts where fewer than 100 votes were cast in 2024 across the two candidates.

Changes in the number of ballots cast in a given area could be attributed to many factors, including changes in population. Some cities, like Milwaukee and Philadelphia, have experienced population decline since 2020, while others such as Las Vegas and Phoenix have seen sharp growth. Because it is difficult to estimate with precision the changes in voter population at the precinct level over the years, The Times analysis of turnout examines total votes cast.

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Video: ICE Agents Will Be Deployed to U.S. Airports, White House Confirms

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Video: ICE Agents Will Be Deployed to U.S. Airports, White House Confirms

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ICE Agents Will Be Deployed to U.S. Airports, White House Confirms

Tom Homan, the White House border czar, confirmed on Sunday that Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents would help security officials ease long lines at airports starting Monday. Transportation Security Administration officers have been working without pay amid a partial government shutdown that has led some workers to call out of work or quit.

Horrible. From now on, I will drive wherever I have to go until they get this figured out. It was horrible.

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Tom Homan, the White House border czar, confirmed on Sunday that Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents would help security officials ease long lines at airports starting Monday. Transportation Security Administration officers have been working without pay amid a partial government shutdown that has led some workers to call out of work or quit.

By Cynthia Silva

March 22, 2026

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Immigration agents deploying to airports under border czar as TSA staffing falls short | CNN Politics

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Immigration agents deploying to airports under border czar as TSA staffing falls short | CNN Politics

President Donald Trump said border czar Tom Homan will be in charge of deploying Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents to airports on Monday, with Homan telling CNN the agents will help with security at entrances and exits to ease the Transportation Security Administration’s workload.

“This is about … helping TSA do their mission and get the American public through that airport as quick as they can while adhering to all the security guidelines and the protocols,” Homan told CNN’s Dana Bash on “State of the Union.”

Airports around the country have seen long security lines, as TSA officers have quit or called out sick as they work without pay amid a partial government shutdown. Homan said his “opinion is that we concentrate on the airports where the longest waits are; we prioritize those large airports with those long waits like three hours.”

“We’re simply there to help TSA do their job in areas that don’t need their specialized expertise, such as screening through the X-ray machine. Not trained in that? We won’t do that,” Homan said. “But there are roles we can play to release TSA officers from the non-significant roles, such as guarding an exit so they can get back to the scanning machines and move people quicker.”

The border czar said ICE will continue conducting immigration enforcement operations while aiding TSA. He added the heads of ICE and the TSA are involved in planning discussions, and that the public can expect more details of “a well-thought-out plan to execute” later Sunday.

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Trump first announced the move to deploy ICE agents on social media Saturday, as lawmakers worked toward reaching an agreement to fund the Department of Homeland Security amid mounting travel disruptions. Democrats have refused to fund the department as they demand changes that would rein in Trump’s immigration policies after two people were killed during an immigration enforcement surge in Minneapolis earlier this year.

Vice President JD Vance accused Democrats on Sunday of holding TSA “hostage” while expressing gratitude that the White House will deploy ICE agents to airports.

“Thankfully, ICE will bring sanity to our airports starting tomorrow, but it’s far past time for Democrats to fund DHS,” he posted on X.

Bipartisan appropriators held a brief meeting with Homan on Friday evening that sources from both parties called “productive.” Senate Majority Leader John Thune told reporters Sunday he hoped to meet with Homan after another bipartisan meeting was postponed a day earlier.

Talks are expected to continue Sunday as Republicans await a counteroffer from Democrats after receiving a proposal from the White House on Friday. Lawmakers on both sides of the aisle are pushing to reach a deal by the end of the week, according to a person familiar with the talks.

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Two of the big sticking points remain whether to require judicial warrants on immigration enforcement action and to require ICE agents to remove their masks — both key Democratic demands that the White House has resisted.

Senators are eager to wrap up talks and pass a bill before Easter recess at week’s end, meaning a deal needs to be reached within the next couple of days to begin the legislative process to meet that timeframe.

Thune said Sunday that lawmakers were making “some headway” in talks to reopen DHS, warning that things could get “pretty bad” if a deal isn’t reached in the coming days.

He said the Trump administration’s plans to send ICE agents to airports to help bolster TSA staffing is “evidence of how sort of desperate things have become at our airports.”

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries told “State of the Union” on Sunday the plan to send ICE agents to airports was an effort to “squeeze lawmakers to try to finally come up with a plan to fund DHS.”

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“It’s unfortunate that Republicans have decided that they would rather force TSA agents to work without pay, inconvenience millions of Americans all across the country and now potentially expose them to untrained ICE agents and create chaos at airports throughout the land, rather than get ICE agents under control,” Jeffries said.

On Saturday, Republican Sen. John Kennedy told CNN “it could help” to send ICE agents to airports, but suggested that it’s not a definitive solution to the long security lines.

“If they’re planning on using some of the ICE folks to help with crowd control to free up TSA people to do the screening, I could see a scenario where that might help.”

Meanwhile, the union representing TSA officers is fiercely pushing back against plans to deploy ICE agents to airports, warning the move could put passenger safety at risk.

American Federation of Government Employees President Everett Kelley said in a statement Sunday that “Replacing unpaid TSA workers with ICE agents is not a solution, but a dangerous escalation.”

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“ICE agents are not trained or certified in aviation security,” Kelley said, stressing that TSA officers spend months developing highly specialized skills to detect explosives, weapons and sophisticated threats designed to evade screening. “You cannot improvise that.”

This story has been updated with additional developments.

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Video: Former F.B.I. Director Robert Mueller Dies at 81

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Video: Former F.B.I. Director Robert Mueller Dies at 81

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Former F.B.I. Director Robert Mueller Dies at 81

Robert Mueller, who led the Federal Bureau of Investigation for 12 tumultuous years, brought politically explosive indictments as a special counsel examining Russia’s attack on the 2016 presidential election.

Countless Americans are alive today, and our country is more secure because of the F.B.I.’s outstanding work under the leadership of Bob Mueller.

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Robert Mueller, who led the Federal Bureau of Investigation for 12 tumultuous years, brought politically explosive indictments as a special counsel examining Russia’s attack on the 2016 presidential election.

By McKinnon de Kuyper

March 21, 2026

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