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Maps Pinpoint Where Democrats Lost Ground Since 2020 in 11 Big Cities
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To offset gains that Donald J. Trump made in rural and suburban America in 2024, Kamala Harris needed to do better than Joseph R. Biden Jr.’s strong 2020 electoral performance in cities. But she ended up doing worse in urban America — getting 15 percent fewer votes than Mr. Biden in some cities. A New York Times analysis of precinct-level election results — the most detailed available publicly — across 11 cities shows how it happened.
Swipe to see maps showing change in turnout White precincts
Atlanta
In Atlanta and its suburbs, both candidates found new voters, but Ms. Harris’s gains in precincts where white voters were the largest racial or ethnic group were canceled out by losses elsewhere. Mr. Trump’s uptick in support from voters of color across Atlanta, along with improved performance in the state’s rural areas, was enough for him to win Georgia — a swing state he narrowly lost to Mr. Biden in 2020.
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Latino precinctsChicago
Chicago is emblematic of the chief problem the Harris campaign faced in urban areas — a big decline in votes in Democratic strongholds. Even though Ms. Harris won the city by a 58-point margin, she lost ground in nearly every precinct. She picked up just 127,000 votes in Mexican and Puerto Rican neighborhoods, 47,000 fewer than Mr. Biden earned in 2020. Mr. Trump made small gains across the board, but Ms. Harris’s losses were much steeper.
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Precincts where Arabs are the largest ethnic group
Detroit
In Wayne County, which includes Detroit, Ms. Harris struggled to capture the support of Arab-American voters, many of whom had been turned off by the Biden administration’s Middle East policies. In a swath of voting precincts spanning Dearborn and Hamtramck, which have the nation’s highest concentration of people of Arab ancestry, Mr. Trump picked up thousands of votes compared with 2020, while the Democratic Party lost an even bigger number. Countywide, precincts with high shares of Arab residents made up just 6 percent of the electorate but accounted for more than 40 percent of the decline in Democratic votes.
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Latino precincts where the median income is less than $50,000
Houston
The story in Houston was more about Ms. Harris underperforming Mr. Biden’s 2020 vote totals than about Mr. Trump achieving sharp gains, especially in Latino neighborhoods and lower-income areas. Ms. Harris’s vote total was down 12 percent overall from Mr. Biden’s in 2020, and 28 percent in low-income neighborhoods where Latino voters are the largest group.
Las Vegas
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Latino precincts
In this rapidly growing area, red shifts were most evident in Latino neighborhoods. While Ms. Harris matched Mr. Biden’s vote total overall, Mr. Trump made significant gains throughout the area.
Swipe to see maps showing change in turnout Latino precincts where Cubans are not the largest subgroup
Miami
Mr. Trump was already popular with the county’s large Cuban American population, but in this election, his support surged with Latino voters from other groups as well. He received 20 percent more total votes in Latino neighborhoods where Cubans are not the predominant Latino group, like those with large populations of Nicaraguans or Colombians. This helped him flip Miami-Dade County for the first time since 1988, further cementing Florida as a decisively red state.
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Latino precincts where Mexicans are the largest subgroupMilwaukee
Mr. Trump saw gains on the city’s South Side, where there are Latino precincts with large Mexican populations, and his increased support coincided with Ms. Harris’s losses there. Ms. Harris picked up votes in some white neighborhoods, but those gains were erased by the losses elsewhere, allowing Mr. Trump to cut into the Democratic margin and flip the state back to the Republican column.
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Latino precincts
New York City
Latino neighborhoods accounted for nearly half of Mr. Trump’s total gains in his home city compared with 2020. While Ms. Harris won these precincts by a 40-point margin, that fell short of Mr. Biden’s 66-point margin in 2020. In a city with a diverse population of Latinos, Mr. Trump’s vote share grew among all of them — Puerto Rican neighborhoods, Dominican neighborhoods and Mexican neighborhoods alike.
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White precincts
Philadelphia
Ms. Harris outperformed Mr. Biden in some parts of the city — especially in white precincts near the downtown area. White voters were the largest racial or ethnic group in 24 of the 25 precincts where she gained the most votes. But Ms. Harris lost some support in Latino and Black neighborhoods elsewhere in the city, and the Democratic margin fell to 59 points, from 64 points in 2020.
Phoenix
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Latino precincts
More than half of the Democratic vote decline occurred in Latino neighborhoods, even though these precincts accounted for just 16 percent of the overall vote total. Ms. Harris still won Latino neighborhoods by 23 points, but it was a 12-point drop from the 2020 margin of Mr. Biden, who narrowly won Arizona, a Republican stronghold won only twice by Democrats since 1952.
Swipe to see maps showing change in turnout Asian precincts
San Francisco
Even this city — known for its liberalism and its importance to Ms. Harris’s career — swung toward Mr. Trump. Ms. Harris’s losses were especially noticeable in the city’s Asian neighborhoods, which are predominantly Chinese but include thousands of voters from other groups. Though Ms. Harris still won the city by a 68-point margin, Mr. Trump gained more than 6,000 votes on top of her vote losses.
Methodology
The 2024 precinct results are from: Georgia’s Secretary of State (Atlanta); Chicago’s Board of Election Commissioners; Wayne County Clerk (Detroit); Harris County Clerk (Houston); Clark County Election Department (Las Vegas); Miami-Dade County’s Supervisor of Elections (Miami); Milwaukee County Clerk; New York City Board of Elections; Philadelphia City Commissioners; Maricopa County Recorder’s Office (Phoenix); San Francisco’s Department of Elections (San Francisco). The 2024 precinct boundary files are from state and local officials. For Milwaukee’s 2020 precinct results, The Times used a data set by John Johnson, a research fellow in the Marquette Law School Lubar Center, based on the county clerk and the Wisconsin Legislative Technology Services Bureau. For New York City, estimates for 2020 election results within 2024 precinct boundaries are from an analysis by the Center for Urban Research at CUNY.
For all other areas, the 2020 precinct results are from the Voting and Election Science Team. In these areas, The Times used data from the 2020 decennial census to create a population-weighted estimate of the 2020 vote within 2024 precinct boundaries. These estimates were used to calculate the change in the number of votes and the shift in margin for each candidate in 2024, compared with 2020.
The city of Detroit reports its absentee votes in counting boards, which often span multiple precincts. For the 2024 data, The Times obtained a list of precincts that correspond to each counting board from the Detroit City Clerk, and precinct results were aggregated into Counting Boards. For 2020, the list of precincts that correspond to each counting board was obtained from OpenElections.
Precinct-level estimates for income and education, as well as broad groupings of race and ethnicity, are based on the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2018-22 American Community Survey and information from L2, a nonpartisan voter data vendor. The Times calculated these statistics, which approximate the average demographics of the electorate in a given precinct, by obtaining the demographics of each registered voter’s census block group and aggregating this data to the precinct level.
Precincts are listed as white, Black, Asian or Latino if that group is the most populous. Some precincts are further identified by a subgroup. For example, a precinct is identified as Chinese if a majority of people in the precinct are Asian, and Chinese are the most populous of the Asian subgroups and also represent at least 25 percent of the neighborhood’s population. Likewise, Arab precincts in Wayne County were selected if at least 25 percent of residents identified as a member of an Arab ancestry group and Arab ancestry is more common than any other major ancestry group.
The arrow maps showing the shift in margin from 2020 to 2024 exclude precincts where fewer than 100 votes were cast in 2024 across the two candidates.
Changes in the number of ballots cast in a given area could be attributed to many factors, including changes in population. Some cities, like Milwaukee and Philadelphia, have experienced population decline since 2020, while others such as Las Vegas and Phoenix have seen sharp growth. Because it is difficult to estimate with precision the changes in voter population at the precinct level over the years, The Times analysis of turnout examines total votes cast.
News
How the federal government is painting immigrants as criminals on social media
Getty Images, Dept. of Homeland Security and The White House via X/Collage by Emily Bogle/NPR
Two days after At Chandee, who goes by Ricky, was arrested by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement, the White House’s X account posted about him, calling the 52-year-old the “WORST OF WORST” and a “CRIMINAL ILLEGAL ALIEN.”
Except that the photo the White House posted was of a different person. The post also incorrectly claimed Chandee had multiple felony convictions — he has one, for second-degree assault in 1993 when he was 18 years old. He shot two people in the legs and served three years in prison.
At “Ricky” Chandee with his wife, Tina Huynh-Chandee.
Via the Chandee family
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Via the Chandee family
Chandee, who came to the U.S. as a child refugee, was ordered to be deported back to his home country, Laos. But Laos had not been accepting all of the people the U.S. wanted it to, so the federal government determined that it was likely infeasible to deport him, his lawyer Linus Chan told NPR. Chandee therefore was granted permission to stay in the U.S. and work so long as he checked in with immigration authorities periodically. He has not missed a check-in in over 30 years and has not had another criminal incident.
People who know Chandee do not see him as “worst of the worst.”
After Chandee completed his prison sentence, he finished school and became an engineering technician. He worked for the City of Minneapolis for 26 years, became a father, and his son grew up to join the military.
In his free time, Chandee enjoys hiking and foraging for mushrooms, Minnesota Public Radio reported.
“We are proud to work alongside At ‘Ricky’ Chandee,” said Tim Sexton, Director of Public Works for the City of Minneapolis in a statement. “I don’t understand why he would be a target for removal now, why he was brutally detained and swiftly flown to Texas, or how his removal benefits our city or country.” Chandee is petitioning for his release in federal court.
Chandee’s case is not unique
Social media accounts from the White House, the Department of Homeland Security and other immigration agencies have spent much of the past year posting about people detained in the administration’s immigration crackdown, typically portraying them as hardened, violent criminals. That’s even as over 70% of the people detained don’t have criminal records according to ICE data.
NPR’s research of cases in Minnesota shows that while many of the people who have been highlighted on social media do have recent, serious criminal records, about a quarter are like Chandee, with decades-old convictions, minor offenses or only pending criminal proceedings. Scholars of immigration, media and criminal law say such a media campaign is unprecedented and paints a distorted picture of immigrants and crime.
A year into President Trump’s second term, the X accounts of DHS and ICE have posted about more than 2,000 people who were targets of mass deportation efforts. Starting late last March, DHS and ICE began posting on X on a near daily basis, often highlighting apprehensions of multiple people a day, an NPR review of government social media posts show.
Among the 2,000 people highlighted by the agencies, NPR identified 130 who were arrested by federal agents in Minnesota and tried to verify the government’s statements about their criminal histories.
In most of the social media posts, the government did not provide the state where the conviction occurred or the person’s age. Public court records do not tend to include photos so definitive identification can be a challenge.
NPR derived its findings from cases where it was able to locate a name and matching criminal history in the Minnesota court and detention system, in nationwide criminal history databases, sex offender databases, and in some cases, federal courts and other state courts.
In 19 of the 130 cases, roughly 1-in-7, public records show the most recent convictions were at least 20 years ago.
Seventeen of the 19 cases with old convictions did include violent crimes like homicide and first-degree sexual assault. ICE provided some of those names to Fox News as key examples of the agency’s accomplishments. “It’s the most disturbing list I’ve ever seen,” said Fox News reporter Bill Melugin on X, highlighting the criminal convictions of each person on the list.
For seven people, their only criminal history involved driving under the influence or disorderly conduct.
ICE agents approach a house before detaining two people in Minneapolis on Jan. 13.
Stephen Maturen/Getty Images
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Stephen Maturen/Getty Images
Six of the 130 Minnesota cases highlighted by the administration involved people with no criminal convictions. The government’s social media posts for those six instead rely upon the charges and arrests as evidence of their criminality, even though arrests don’t always lead to charges and charges can be dismissed.
In yet another case, the government highlighted a criminal charge even while noting it had been dismissed. (The person did have other existing convictions.)
For 37 of the 130 people, NPR was unable to confirm matching criminal history after consulting the databases and news coverage. Some of the names turned up no criminal history at all. The government said these people committed crimes ranging from homicide and assault to drug trafficking, and cited one by name to Fox News. NPR tried to reach out to all 37 people and their families for comment but did not receive a response from any.
In a statement to NPR, DHS’s chief spokesperson Lauren Bis did not dispute NPR’s findings or provide documentation where NPR wasn’t able to confirm matching criminal history.
“The fact that NPR is defending murderers and pedophiles is gross,” Bis wrote. “We hear far too much about criminals and not enough about their victims.” before listing four of the people with old convictions of homicide and sexual assault, underlining the date of deportation order for three of them.
Images designed to trigger emotion
The stream of social media posts with photos of mostly nonwhite people are meant to draw an emotional response, says Leo Chavez, an emeritus professor of anthropology at the University of California, Irvine. They “have been used repeatedly over and over to get people to buy into, really drastic, drastic and draconian actions and policies,” he said.
Chavez, whose most recent book is The Latino Threat: How Alarmist Rhetoric Misrepresents Immigrants, Citizens, and the Nation, recalls how political campaigns in past decades presented images of Latinos — often men — without context. “Just by showing their image, showing brown people, particularly brown men, it’s supposed to be scary.”
The fact that the government’s social media posts come with statements about criminal history as well as photos reinforces that emotional response, Chavez said. DHS has previously acknowledged inaccuracies on their website. But even if the department issues corrections, Chavez said, “the goal was actually achieved, which was to reinforce the criminality and the visualization.”
CNN’s analysis of DHS’s “Arrested: Worst of the Worst” website showed that for hundreds out of about 25,000 people posted on the website, the crimes listed were not violent felonies. Instead, DHS listed people with records that included traffic offenses, marijuana possession or illegal reentry. DHS said the website had a “glitch” that it will fix but also that the people in question “have [committed] additional crimes.”
“I’ve never seen anything like this when it comes to immigration enforcement in the modern era,” said Juliet Stumpf, a professor at Lewis & Clark Law School who studies the intersection of immigration and criminal law. She said the drumbeat of social media posts focused on specific individuals was like “FBI’s most wanted posters” or “like reality TV shows.”
Then-DHS Assistant Secretary for Public Affairs Tricia McLaughlin, flanked by deputy director of U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement Madison Sheahan (left), and Acting director of U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement Todd Lyons, speaks during a news conference at ICE Headquarters, in Washington, D.C., on May 21, 2025.
Jose Luis Magana/AP
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Jose Luis Magana/AP
Stumpf drew a parallel with an incident from the 1950s when the U.S. government deported two permanent residents suspected of being communists. “The government was kind of proclaiming and celebrating their deportation because getting rid of these communists was making the country safer,” said Stumpf, “Maybe that’s comparable to something like [this].”
An analysis by the Deportation Data Project shows a dramatic increase in arrests of noncitizens without criminal records during President Trump’s current term compared to President Biden’s term.
“If you look at research, immigrants actually tend to commit fewer crimes than even U.S. citizens do. And that’s true of immigrants who have lawful status here and immigrants who don’t,” said Stumpf. “If we have a number of social media posts that are painting immigrants as the worst of the worst…it’s actually really putting out a distorted version of reality about who immigrants actually are.”
Some claims are disputed by other authorities
In some posts, DHS and ICE have also used photos of people and statements about their criminal histories to burnish the federal government’s accomplishments, defend their agents and criticize states like Minnesota. State and local authorities have in turn pushed back, and some of the federal government’s claims about the people it has detained have been met with setbacks in the courts.
DHS accused Minnesota’s Cottonwood County of not honoring detainers, written requests by ICE to hold prisoners in custody for a period of time so ICE can pick them up. In one post, the agency identified a person who was charged with child sexual abuse, writing “This is who sanctuary city politicians and anti-ICE agitators are defending.”
The Cottonwood County sheriff’s office said DHS’s post “misrepresented the truth” in their own post on Facebook. According to their account, the county did honor the detainer but ICE said it was unable to pick up the person before the order expired and the county had to release the suspect.
The Minnesota Department of Corrections wrote in a blog post that dozens of people DHS listed on its “Worst of the Worst” website were not arrested as DHS described, but were transferred to ICE by the state because they were already in state custody. The Corrections Department has since launched a page dedicated to “correct the Department of Homeland Security’s (DHS) repeated false claims.”
The “Worst of the Worst” website has some overlap with the department’s social media posts, but it contains a much larger number of people — over 30,000 nationally. It included a Colombian soccer star who was extradited to the U.S., tried in Texas, convicted of drug trafficking and served time in federal prison. The website incorrectly describes him as being arrested in Wisconsin. The soccer player, Jhon Viáfara Mina, recently finished his sentence early and returned to Colombia, according to Spanish newspaper El Diario Vasco.
In some instances, DHS and ICE wrote about incidents where they ran into conflict when carrying out arrests. In those posts, they named the arrestees and posted their photos. But in one case where the incident went to court, the government’s account of the events shifted. After a federal agent shot Julio C. Sosa-Celis in Minneapolis in January, DHS claimed he was lodging a “violent attack on law enforcement.” Assault charges against Sosa-Celis fell apart in court as new evidence surfaced, and the officers involved were put on leave.
Despite the fact that the charges were dropped, DHS’s post profiling Sosa-Celis remains online.
News
Bill Clinton to testify before House committee investigating Epstein links
Former president Bill Clinton is scheduled to give deposition Friday to a congressional committee investigating his links to Jeffrey Epstein, one day after Hillary Clinton testified before the committee and called the proceedings “partisan political theatre” and “an insult to the American people”.
During remarks before the House oversight committee, Hillary Clinton, the former secretary of state, insisted on Thursday that she had never met Epstein.
The former Democratic president, however, flew on Epstein’s private jet several times in the early 2000s but said he never visited his island.
Clinton, who engaged in an extramarital affair while president and has been accused of sexual misconduct by three women, also appears in a photo from the recently released files, in a hot tub with Epstein and a woman whose identity is redacted.
Clinton has denied the sexual misconduct claims and was not charged with any crimes. He also has not been accused of any wrongdoing connected to Epstein.
Epstein visited the White House at least 17 times during the early years of Clinton’s presidency, according to White House visitor records cited in news reports. Clinton said he cut ties with him around 2005, before the disgraced financier, who died from suicide in 2019, pleaded guilty to solicitation of a minor in Florida.
The House committee subpoenaed the Clintons in August. They initially refused to testify but agreed after Republicans threatened to hold them in contempt.
The Clintons asked for their depositions to be held publicly, with the former president stating that to do so behind closed doors would amount to a “kangaroo court”.
“Let’s stop the games + do this the right way: in a public hearing,” Clinton said on X earlier this month.
The committee’s chair, James Comer, did not grant their request, and the proceedings will be conducted behind closed doors with video to be released later.
On Thursday, Hillary Clinton’s proceedings were briefly halted after representative Lauren Boebert leaked an image of Clinton testifying.
During the full day deposition, Clinton said she had no information about Epstein and did not recall ever meeting him.
Before the deposition, Comer said it would be a long interview and that one with Bill Clinton would be “even longer”.
News
Read Judge Schiltz’s Order
CASE 0:26-cv-00107-PJS-DLM
Doc. 12-1 Filed 02/26/26
Page 5 of 17
and to file a status update by 11:00 am on January 20. ECF No. 5. Respondents never provided a bond hearing and did not release Petitioner until January 21, ECF Nos. 10, 12, after failing to file an update, ECF No. 9. Further, Respondents released Petitioner subject to conditions despite the Court’s release order not providing for conditions. ECF Nos. 5, 12–13.
Abdi W. v. Trump, et al., Case No. 26-CV-00208 (KMM/SGE)
On January 21, 2026, the Court ordered Respondents, within 3 days, to either (a) complete Petitioner’s inspection and examination and file a notice confirming completion, or (b) release Petitioner immediately in Minnesota and confirm the date, time, and location of release. ECF No. 7. No notice was ever filed. The Court emailed counsel on January 27, 2026, at 10:39 am. No response was provided.
Adriana M.Y.M. v. David Easterwood, et al., Case No. 26-CV-213 (JWB/JFD)
On January 24, 2026, the Court ordered immediate release in Minnesota and ordered Respondents to confirm the time, date, and location of release, or anticipated release, within 48 hours. ECF No. 12. Respondent was not released until January 30, and Respondents never disclosed the time of release, instead describing it as “early this morning.” ECF No. 16.
Estefany J.S. v. Bondi, Case No. 26-CV-216 (JWB/SGE)
On January 13, 2026, at 10:59 am, the Court ordered Respondents to file a letter by 4:00 pm confirming Petitioner’s current location. ECF No. 8. After receiving no response, the Court ordered Respondents, at 5:11 pm, to immediately confirm Petitioner’s location and, by noon on January 14, file a memorandum explaining their failure to comply with the initial order. ECF No. 9. Respondents did not file the memorandum, requiring the Court to issue another order. ECF No. 12. On January 15, the Court ordered immediate release in Minnesota and required Respondents to confirm the time, date, and location of release within 48 hours. ECF No. 18. On January 20, having received no confirmation, the Court ordered Respondents to comply immediately. ECF No. 21. Respondents informed the Court that Petitioner was released in Minnesota on January 17, but did not specify the time. ECF No. 22.
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