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Maps Pinpoint Where Democrats Lost Ground Since 2020 in 11 Big Cities

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Maps Pinpoint Where Democrats Lost Ground Since 2020 in 11 Big Cities

To offset gains that Donald J. Trump made in rural and suburban America in 2024, Kamala Harris needed to do better than Joseph R. Biden Jr.’s strong 2020 electoral performance in cities. But she ended up doing worse in urban America — getting 15 percent fewer votes than Mr. Biden in some cities. A New York Times analysis of precinct-level election results — the most detailed available publicly — across 11 cities shows how it happened.

In Atlanta and its suburbs, both candidates found new voters, but Ms. Harris’s gains in precincts where white voters were the largest racial or ethnic group were canceled out by losses elsewhere. Mr. Trump’s uptick in support from voters of color across Atlanta, along with improved performance in the state’s rural areas, was enough for him to win Georgia — a swing state he narrowly lost to Mr. Biden in 2020.

Chicago is emblematic of the chief problem the Harris campaign faced in urban areas — a big decline in votes in Democratic strongholds. Even though Ms. Harris won the city by a 58-point margin, she lost ground in nearly every precinct. She picked up just 127,000 votes in Mexican and Puerto Rican neighborhoods, 47,000 fewer than Mr. Biden earned in 2020. Mr. Trump made small gains across the board, but Ms. Harris’s losses were much steeper.

In Wayne County, which includes Detroit, Ms. Harris struggled to capture the support of Arab-American voters, many of whom had been turned off by the Biden administration’s Middle East policies. In a swath of voting precincts spanning Dearborn and Hamtramck, which have the nation’s highest concentration of people of Arab ancestry, Mr. Trump picked up thousands of votes compared with 2020, while the Democratic Party lost an even bigger number. Countywide, precincts with high shares of Arab residents made up just 6 percent of the electorate but accounted for more than 40 percent of the decline in Democratic votes.

The story in Houston was more about Ms. Harris underperforming Mr. Biden’s 2020 vote totals than about Mr. Trump achieving sharp gains, especially in Latino neighborhoods and lower-income areas. Ms. Harris’s vote total was down 12 percent overall from Mr. Biden’s in 2020, and 28 percent in low-income neighborhoods where Latino voters are the largest group.

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In this rapidly growing area, red shifts were most evident in Latino neighborhoods. While Ms. Harris matched Mr. Biden’s vote total overall, Mr. Trump made significant gains throughout the area.

Mr. Trump was already popular with the county’s large Cuban American population, but in this election, his support surged with Latino voters from other groups as well. He received 20 percent more total votes in Latino neighborhoods where Cubans are not the predominant Latino group, like those with large populations of Nicaraguans or Colombians. This helped him flip Miami-Dade County for the first time since 1988, further cementing Florida as a decisively red state.

Mr. Trump saw gains on the city’s South Side, where there are Latino precincts with large Mexican populations, and his increased support coincided with Ms. Harris’s losses there. Ms. Harris picked up votes in some white neighborhoods, but those gains were erased by the losses elsewhere, allowing Mr. Trump to cut into the Democratic margin and flip the state back to the Republican column.

Latino neighborhoods accounted for nearly half of Mr. Trump’s total gains in his home city compared with 2020. While Ms. Harris won these precincts by a 40-point margin, that fell short of Mr. Biden’s 66-point margin in 2020. In a city with a diverse population of Latinos, Mr. Trump’s vote share grew among all of them — Puerto Rican neighborhoods, Dominican neighborhoods and Mexican neighborhoods alike.

Ms. Harris outperformed Mr. Biden in some parts of the city — especially in white precincts near the downtown area. White voters were the largest racial or ethnic group in 24 of the 25 precincts where she gained the most votes. But Ms. Harris lost some support in Latino and Black neighborhoods elsewhere in the city, and the Democratic margin fell to 59 points, from 64 points in 2020.

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More than half of the Democratic vote decline occurred in Latino neighborhoods, even though these precincts accounted for just 16 percent of the overall vote total. Ms. Harris still won Latino neighborhoods by 23 points, but it was a 12-point drop from the 2020 margin of Mr. Biden, who narrowly won Arizona, a Republican stronghold won only twice by Democrats since 1952.

Even this city — known for its liberalism and its importance to Ms. Harris’s career — swung toward Mr. Trump. Ms. Harris’s losses were especially noticeable in the city’s Asian neighborhoods, which are predominantly Chinese but include thousands of voters from other groups. Though Ms. Harris still won the city by a 68-point margin, Mr. Trump gained more than 6,000 votes on top of her vote losses.

Methodology

The 2024 precinct results are from: Georgia’s Secretary of State (Atlanta); Chicago’s Board of Election Commissioners; Wayne County Clerk (Detroit); Harris County Clerk (Houston); Clark County Election Department (Las Vegas); Miami-Dade County’s Supervisor of Elections (Miami); Milwaukee County Clerk; New York City Board of Elections; Philadelphia City Commissioners; Maricopa County Recorder’s Office (Phoenix); San Francisco’s Department of Elections (San Francisco). The 2024 precinct boundary files are from state and local officials.

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For Milwaukee’s 2020 precinct results, The Times used a data set by John Johnson, a research fellow in the Marquette Law School Lubar Center, based on the county clerk and the Wisconsin Legislative Technology Services Bureau. For New York City, estimates for 2020 election results within 2024 precinct boundaries are from an analysis by the Center for Urban Research at CUNY.

For all other areas, the 2020 precinct results are from the Voting and Election Science Team. In these areas, The Times used data from the 2020 decennial census to create a population-weighted estimate of the 2020 vote within 2024 precinct boundaries. These estimates were used to calculate the change in the number of votes and the shift in margin for each candidate in 2024, compared with 2020.

The city of Detroit reports its absentee votes in counting boards, which often span multiple precincts. For the 2024 data, The Times obtained a list of precincts that correspond to each counting board from the Detroit City Clerk, and precinct results were aggregated into Counting Boards. For 2020, the list of precincts that correspond to each counting board was obtained from OpenElections.

Precinct-level estimates for income and education, as well as broad groupings of race and ethnicity, are based on the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2018-22 American Community Survey and information from L2, a nonpartisan voter data vendor. The Times calculated these statistics, which approximate the average demographics of the electorate in a given precinct, by obtaining the demographics of each registered voter’s census block group and aggregating this data to the precinct level.

Precincts are listed as white, Black, Asian or Latino if that group is the most populous. Some precincts are further identified by a subgroup. For example, a precinct is identified as Chinese if a majority of people in the precinct are Asian, and Chinese are the most populous of the Asian subgroups and also represent at least 25 percent of the neighborhood’s population.

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Likewise, Arab precincts in Wayne County were selected if at least 25 percent of residents identified as a member of an Arab ancestry group and Arab ancestry is more common than any other major ancestry group.

The arrow maps showing the shift in margin from 2020 to 2024 exclude precincts where fewer than 100 votes were cast in 2024 across the two candidates.

Changes in the number of ballots cast in a given area could be attributed to many factors, including changes in population. Some cities, like Milwaukee and Philadelphia, have experienced population decline since 2020, while others such as Las Vegas and Phoenix have seen sharp growth. Because it is difficult to estimate with precision the changes in voter population at the precinct level over the years, The Times analysis of turnout examines total votes cast.

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Israel expands Gaza ground offensive after days of air strikes

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Israel expands Gaza ground offensive after days of air strikes

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Israel said on Saturday that it was expanding a new ground offensive in Gaza, with troops closing in on the enclave after days of air strikes that have killed hundreds of Palestinians.

Defence minister Israel Katz said the renewed fighting was forcing Hamas to soften its stance in talks being held in Qatar to secure the release of the remaining hostages being held in captivity in Gaza — part of an Israeli strategy of “negotiations under fire”.

A Hamas official told Reuters that a new round of talks was under way on Saturday.

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Palestinians fear the new offensive is the precursor to a plan approved on May 5 by Israel’s security cabinet, under which most of the besieged enclave would be occupied by the Israeli military and 2.1mn Palestinians would be forced into a small area by the border with Egypt.

“The Palestinian cause is navigating one of its gravest and most perilous junctures,” Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi told an Arab League summit. Israel is engaged in a “deliberate endeavour to forcibly displace [Gaza’s] inhabitants under untold horrors of war”, he said.

Egypt fears an exodus of Palestinians into its territory. NBC News reported that the US is negotiating with Libya to take in as many as 1mn Palestinian refugees.

At least 250 Palestinians have been killed in the last two days, health officials in Gaza said, with hundreds more wounded.

Israel has blocked any food, medicine or fresh water from entering Gaza for the last two and half months, pushing hundreds of thousands of Palestinians into starvation, a UN panel said earlier this week.

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The full extent of the offensive was unclear on Saturday. Residents reported machine gun fire in parts of Gaza and Israeli media said tanks had been massed on the border. Israeli warplanes dropped flyers over some parts of Gaza with a reference to the biblical story about Moses parting the sea.

“The Israeli army is coming,” the flyer, shared widely on social media, said.

Israel stepped up the intensity of its air strikes earlier this week as US President Donald Trump wrapped up his Gulf tour.

Israeli officials had earlier referred to his trip as a “window of opportunity” to broker a swap of Israeli hostages for Palestinian prisoners that would be acceptable to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his far-right allies.

In the event, Trump only negotiated the release of a single Israeli soldier, who is also an American national.

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An estimated 20 hostages and the bodies of as many as 38 more are still being held by Hamas, which has refused to release them without a complete ceasefire and the full withdrawal of Israeli forces.

Katz said Hamas’s return to negotiations was evidence that neither a ceasefire nor the resumption of humanitarian assistance to Gaza was necessary for negotiations to succeed.

UN Secretary-General António Guterres warned that Israel’s siege was “beyond description, beyond atrocious and beyond inhumane”.

“A policy of siege & starvation makes a mockery of international law,” he said on X.

His remarks came days after UN Under-Secretary General for Humanitarian Affairs Tom Fletcher warned of a looming “genocide” in Gaza — the first time a senior UN official has publicly used such language.

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Israel rejects Fletcher’s characterisation. It says it has blocked the aid to prevent it from being stolen by Hamas.

More than 53,000 Palestinians have been killed since the war began, most of them women and children, according to local health officials.

At least 1,200 people were killed in Israel in Hamas’s cross-border attack on October 7 2023 and 250 taken hostage, according to Israeli officials.

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More than 20 dead after tornadoes sweep through Kentucky and Missouri

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More than 20 dead after tornadoes sweep through Kentucky and Missouri

Storm damage is surveyed in Laurel County, Ky., after tornadoes brought destruction to the region Friday night.

Laurel County, Ky. Fiscal Court/Facebook/Screenshot by NPR


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Laurel County, Ky. Fiscal Court/Facebook/Screenshot by NPR

Powerful storms and tornadoes tore through several Midwestern and Southern states overnight Friday, leaving carnage and flattened buildings in their wake.

In Kentucky at least 24 people have died. Authorities say 23 of those deaths occurred in London, Ky., in the southeastern part of the state, with some people still unaccounted for.

A message shortly after 8 a.m. ET from Gov. Andy Beshear called for prayers for the affected families. But less than an hour later, the number of known deaths had already risen by 10.

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In Missouri, there are at least seven dead — five in the St. Louis area and two others in a more rural part of the state, south of the capital.

Responders there are still searching homes and buildings for survivors, and officials are asking people to stay out of the impacted areas to allow crews to do their work.

According to PowerOutage.us, the storms left nearly a half million customers without power in dozens of states from Missouri to Maryland.

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This is a developing story and will be updated.

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Putin’s peace theatre keeps Trump watching — and Kyiv waiting

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Putin’s peace theatre keeps Trump watching — and Kyiv waiting

In parallel to a brutal war along a 1,000km front, Russia and Ukraine are locked in a titanic diplomatic battle to persuade Donald Trump that the other is the real impediment to peace. 

So Vladimir Putin took a big risk over the last week, slow rolling US negotiators over a peace proposal, according to officials familiar with the discussions, then refusing to turn up for talks with Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Turkey that he himself had publicly initiated.

So far, the Russian leader’s refusal to engage on terms set by others has been met with little resistance — and certainly not enough to compel concessions or alter the course of his war.

The clearest sign of that came when US President Donald Trump seemed to excuse the Russian leader’s no-show on Thursday and simultaneously questioned the whole point of the Russia-Ukraine talks, saying: “Nothing’s gonna happen until Putin and I get together.”

It was a gift to Putin, who has long sought a one-on-one meeting with a president determined to normalise US-Russian relations. For the Ukrainians, it revived their worst fears — that Trump will seek to cut a deal with Putin over their heads and sell Ukraine down the river. 

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“Putin is doing just enough to convince Trump that he is engaged in this effort to find peace in Ukraine, while also doing as much as possible to make sure it goes nowhere,” said a senior European diplomat involved in the negotiations between western capitals. “And Trump is falling for it.”

That suspicion is shared by some of America’s closest allies. Putin, German defence minister Boris Pistorius said this week, was “trying to lead the American president down the garden path” by refusing to come to Istanbul. “I’m pretty sure that the American president can’t be happy about that,” he told reporters in Berlin.

(2nd left to right) US secretary of state Marco Rubio, Turkish foreign minister Hakan Fidan and Andriy Yermak, head of the Ukrainian president’s office, in Istanbul on Friday © Arda Kucukkaya/Turkish Foreign Ministry via Getty Images

Putin’s reluctance to take part in substantive peace negotiations has become clearer in recent days, even to those in the Trump administration who had been inclined to give him the benefit of the doubt.

On Thursday last week, senior Russian officials told Steve Witkoff, Trump’s special envoy, that Putin did not want to discuss the 22-point peace plan that Witkoff had drawn up with Ukrainian and European input, three people briefed on the discussions told the FT.

Those 22 points were discussed at length the following day on a call between Ukrainian and US officials, according to people familiar with the matter. Ukraine was represented on the call by Zelenskyy’s chief of staff, Andriy Yermak, and Ukrainian defence minister Rustem Umerov; the US by Witkoff, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who is also currently serving as national security adviser, and Gen Keith Kellogg, Trump’s special envoy for Kyiv.

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Russia’s response resulted in Witkoff, who has met Putin for talks four times since February, postponing provisional plans to meet the Russian leader this week, the people said. A person close to Witkoff said no trip had been planned.

Russian President Vladimir Putin greets US special envoy Steve Witkoff (left) prior to their talks in Moscow on April 25
Russian President Vladimir Putin greets US special envoy Steve Witkoff (left) prior to their talks in Moscow on April 25 © Kristina Kormilitsyna/Pool/AFP/Getty Images

In the days that followed, the pace of diplomatic activity picked up. European and Ukrainian leaders met to call for an unconditional, 30-day ceasefire in the war, warning Putin of tough new sanctions if he failed to comply — a demand supported by the US.

Putin rejected the demand but came back with his own counterproposal — direct Russia-Ukraine talks, to be held on Thursday in Istanbul. Trump welcomed the idea and urged Zelenskyy to take part. The Ukrainian leader acceded to his request and challenged Putin to come to Turkey himself for what would have been only the second in-person meeting between them. 

But the Russian leader refused and sent a low-level delegation instead, led by his former culture minister Vladimir Medinsky.

The meeting, held on Friday, wrapped up after less than two hours, without a breakthrough. The two sides agreed to swap thousands of prisoners-of-war, but made no progress on a lasting ceasefire.

European leaders expressed their frustration. “The past few hours have shown that Russia has no interest in a ceasefire and that, unless there is increased pressure from the Europeans and Americans to achieve this outcome, it will not happen spontaneously,” said French President Emmanuel Macron said, referring to new sanctions.

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“People in Ukraine and across the world have paid the price for Putin’s aggression in Ukraine and across Europe, now he must pay the price for avoiding peace,” said UK prime minister Sir Keir Starmer.

Starmer, Macron, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk ended up issuing a joint statement saying Putin’s position was “unacceptable”.

The four leaders, together with Zelenskyy, also held a joint phone call with Trump. Starmer said there was now “a high level of co-ordination” between a core of four countries — the UK, France, Germany and Poland — “and the US administration of President Trump” on Ukraine.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy arrives to speak to the media after his meeting with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan on Thursday in Ankara, Turkey
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy arrives for a press conference after meeting Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in Ankara, Turkey on Thursday © Getty Images

“It is just drip, drip, drip,” said one European foreign minister, referring to Europe’s messaging to the Trump administration in the hope the president eventually shifts position on Russia.

But so far that European rhetoric has not been matched by anyone in the Trump administration, which has continued to express frustration with both sides in the conflict, without singling out Russia, and hint that it could walk away.

Rubio said on Thursday that Trump was “willing to stick with this as long as it takes to achieve peace”. “What we cannot do, however, is continue to fly all over the world and engage in meetings that are not going to be productive,” he said.

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A senior Ukrainian official described the situation as Putin and Zelenskyy being locked in a geopolitical game of “blackjack” — with Trump as the dealer.

Putin held a “strong but risky” hand, the official said. Ukraine is betting that if he draws one more card, the Russian president could go “bust”.

Additional reporting by George Parker in Tirana

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