Hello and welcome to the working week.

First, thank you David Hindley for holding the fort last Sunday in what turned out to be an eventful start to that week when Joe Biden quit the race for the White House. US vice-president Kamala Harris will be in the news over the next seven days as she further positions herself as the Democratic nominee for the presidential election. Meanwhile, the race for medals at the Paris Olympics will provide a sporting backdrop.

The long goodbye from Biden continues this week with a visit by the US president to the LBJ Library in Texas to commemorate the passing of the Civil Rights Act. Attention will focus on updates to Harris’s campaign to replace him after November’s election, in particular with the naming of her running mate, though this may not come now until August 7.

US national editor Edward Luce in the Swamp Notes newsletter (for Premium subscribers) argues that the wise choice would be Pete Buttigieg, Biden’s transportation secretary. However, as my colleague John Burn-Murdoch notes, Harris would lose if the election was held today. Her challenge is to build on her initial momentum and pass Donald Trump in the only poll that counts — the vote on November 5.

The UK’s new Labour government is promising to start the week with a shock — if such a well-trailed event can be so described — laying bare the parlous state of the public finances. The revelation by chancellor Rachel Reeves of a £20bn shortfall is widely viewed as a forerunner to tax increases in her first fiscal statement in the autumn.

Monday also brings the biggest overhaul of rules for London-listed companies in three decades as the government attempts to revive the country’s capital markets. Could it herald a new dawn for the UK as a global hub for investors, supporting fundraising for higher-growth and founder-led companies? The FT editorial board hopes it can.

The headline economic data news this week will be the monetary policy choices of three of the G7 nations. The Bank of Japan and US Federal Open Market Committee go first with their rate-setting announcements on Wednesday, followed a day later by the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee.

The Federal Reserve is weighing when to cut rates after raising them to a 23-year high of 5.25-5.5 per cent in response to the inflation shock from the pandemic. Its decision-making process has been complicated by last week’s higher than expected GDP growth figure, but the central bankers in Washington are still expected to stick to keep rates steady this week. Observers will be looking for comments that either confirm or cool the consensus opinion that rates will be cut at the Fed’’s September meeting.

Britain may well move first. Economists are expecting a 25 basis point cut to the UK base rate after hints given by the MPC at its last meeting, though the odds have narrowed recently with the unexpected recovery in GDP growth. Allan Monks at JP Morgan Securities said: “If rates are lowered in August, it looks likely to happen on a close 5-4 vote.”

Economists are also predicting modest changes in the BoE’s economic outlook. GDP growth will probably see hefty revisions, particularly for this year. GDP growth in 2025 is also likely to be revised higher due to both a better starting point and lower market rate expectations.

A flood of earnings will wash on to the FT’s companies pages this week, which can be grouped into Big Tech, banking, automotive, engineering, consumer goods (notably drinks) and retail. Will Amazon, Meta and Microsoft be able to stem the rout in tech stocks? Are HSBC and Barclays going to build on the positive messaging from British banks last week? More details below.

One more thing . . . 

We are entering August, which means one thing: the start of the world renowned Edinburgh Festival Fringe. But for how much longer? Francesca Hegyi, chief executive of the Edinburgh International Festival, the main event to which the Fringe attaches itself, has told the Financial Times that the business model is bust. To make matters worse, the city’s binmen are adding to the stink (pun intended) by threatening to go on strike during the month-long event. Having experienced the joy of the Fringe once, I can attest that its demise would be a great cultural tragedy for the nation.

What are your priorities this week? Email me at jonathan.moules@ft.com or, if you have received this message in your inbox, hit reply. And have a good week.

Key economic and company reports

Here is a more complete list of what to expect in terms of company reports and economic data this week.

Monday

• Hipgnosis acquisition by Blackstone expected to become effective after the deal was approved by shareholders last month

• UK: an overhaul of London listing rules come into force today (see details above)

• Results: Alliance Pharma AGM and HY trading update, Cranswick Q1 trading statement, Heineken HY, Komatsu Q1, Loews Q2, McDonald’s Q2, ON Semiconductor Q2, Pearson HY and strategic update, Philips HY, SBA Communications Q2

Tuesday

• Czech Republic, EU, France, Germany, Hungary, Mexico: preliminary Q2 GDP figures

• Germany: preliminary July consumer price index (CPI) and harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) inflation rate data

• Japan: unemployment rate

• UK: British Retail Consortium’s July Shop Price Index.

• Results: AG Barr HY trading update, Airbus HY, BP Q2, Caesars Entertainment Q2, Corning Q2, Croda HY, Diageo FY, Electronic Arts Q1, Ferrovial HY, Foxtons HY, Fresnillo HY, Games Workshop FY, Gartner Q2, Glencore HY production report, Greggs HY, Inchcape HY, Live Nation Entertainment Q2, L’Oréal HY, Merck & Co Q2, Mondelez International Q2, Microsoft Q4, Nomura Q1, Paragon Banking Q3 trading update, PayPal Q2, Pfizer Q2, Pinterest Q2, Procter & Gamble Q4, Sage Q3 trading update, Smurfit Kappa HY, Standard Chartered Q2, Stanley Black & Decker Q2, Starbucks Q3, St James’s Place HY, Weir Group HY, Western Union Q2

Wednesday

• Brazil: Banco Central do Brasil Monetary Policy Committee rate-setting decision

• EU: eurozone preliminary July HICP inflation rate data

• France: preliminary July CPI and HICP inflation rate data

• Germany: July retail sales and labour market figures

• Japan: Bank of Japan announces its interest rate decision

• US: Federal Open Market Committee announces its rate decision.

• Results: Adidas HY, Arm Holdings Q1, Asahi Kasei Q1, Boeing Q2, Danone HY, eBay Q2, GSK Q2, Kerry Group HY, Kraft Heinz Q2, Hess Q2, Hitachi Q1, HSBC HY, Ingersoll Rand Q2, Lufthansa HY, Marriott International Q2, Mastercard Q2, Match Group Q2, Meta Q2, MetLife Q2, Metro Bank HY, MGM Resorts Q2, OMV Q2, Panasonic Q1, Qualcomm Q3, Rathbones HY, Reach HY, Restore HY, Ricardo trading update, Rio Tinto HY (early AM Australia), Samsung Electronics Q2, Sumitomo Q1, Tata Steel Q1, Taylor Wimpey HY, Telefónica HY, Western Digital Q4

Thursday

• Bank of England chief economist Huw Pill answers questions about the UK economy and the bank’s policies in an online Q&A

• China, Eurozone, France, Germany, India, Italy, Japan, UK, US: S&P Global/HSBC/Caixin July manufacturing purchasing managers’ index data

• UK: Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee announces its interest rate decision. Also, Nationwide’s July House Price Index

• Results: Albemarle Q2, Allstate Q2, Amazon.com Q2, American International Group (AIG) Q2, American Water Works Q2, Anheuser-Busch InBev Q2, Apple Q3, ArcelorMittal HY, BAE Systems HY, Barclays HY, Deutsche Post Q2, Haleon HY, Hershey Q2, Intel Q2, London Stock Exchange HY, Mitsui & Co Q1, Moderna Q2, Next Q2 trading statement, Pets at Home Q1 trading update, Prudential Financial Q2, Robert Walters HY, Rolls-Royce HY, Schroders HY, Serco HY, Shell Q2, HY, Snap Q2, Tata Motors Q1, Thomson Reuters Q2, Toyota Q1, Veolia Environnement HY, Volkswagen HY, Wizz Air Q1

Friday

• France: June industrial production figures

• South Korea: July CPI inflation rate data

• UK: BDO High Street Sales Tracker

• US: July employment and non-farm payroll figures

• Results: AXA HY, Capita HY, Chevron Q2, ExxonMobil Q2, IAG HY, KDDI Q1, Linde Q2, Nintendo Q1, Royal London HY, Sumitomo Mitsui Q1, Virgin Money UK Q3 trading update

World events

Finally, here is a rundown of other events and milestones this week.

Monday

• Japan: Prime Minister Fumio Kishida hosts a foreign ministers’ meeting of the Quad, Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, in Tokyo

• US: President Joe Biden commemorates the 60th anniversary of the Civil Rights Act during a visit to the LBJ Presidential Library in Texas

Tuesday

• Philippines: the government’s foreign and defence ministers hold a 2+2 dialogue with their US counterparts for the first time in Manila

• Vietnam: EU foreign affairs chief Josep Borrell visits Hanoi, where he will meet Vietnamese authorities to discuss foreign affairs, security and climate policy

• UK: Qatar Goodwood Festival, aka Glorious Goodwood, five-day flat horseracing event begins in Chichester

Thursday

• China: China Army Day, marking the founding of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army in 1927

• Poland: 80th anniversary of the start of the Warsaw Uprising, when the city’s residents tried to oust the German army before it was occupied by the advancing Soviet forces. Streets in Poland will come to a standstill to commemorate the event

• UN Security Council monthly presidency rotates from Russia to Sierra Leone

• US: tariff increases on an array of Chinese imports, including electric vehicles and their batteries, computer chips and medical products, come into effect

Friday

• UK: 77th Edinburgh Festival Fringe, the internationally acclaimed arts festival featuring hundreds of theatre, cabaret, comedy and music shows, starts in the Scottish capital

Saturday

• UK: National Eisteddfod of Wales, a festival of arts, culture, competitive poetry-writing and music performed entirely in the Welsh language, opens in Rhondda Cynon Taff

Sunday

FOREST RANCH, Calif. — Thousands of firefighters battling a wildfire in Northern California received some help from the weather hours after it exploded in size, scorching an area greater than the size of Los Angeles. The blaze was one of several tearing through the western United States and Canada, fueled by wind and heat.

Cooler temperatures and an increase in humidity could help slow the Park Fire, the largest this year in California. Its intensity and dramatic spread led fire officials to make unwelcome comparisons to the monstrous Camp Fire, which burned out of control in nearby Paradise in 2018, killing 85 people and torching 11,000 homes.

Paradise again was near the danger zone on Saturday. The entire town was under an evacuation warning, one of several communities in Butte County. Evacuation orders were also issued in Plumas, Tehama and Shasta counties. An evacuation warning calls for people to prepare to leave and await instructions, while an evacuation order means to leave immediately.

Temperatures are expected to be cooler than average through the middle of next week, but “that doesn’t mean that fires that are existing will go away,” said Marc Chenard, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service Weather Prediction Center in College Park, Maryland.

As of Saturday night, the Park Fire had scorched 547 square miles (1,416 square kilometers) and destroyed 134 structures since igniting Wednesday, when authorities said a man pushed a burning car into a gully in Chico and then fled. It was 10% contained and moving to the north and east near Chico.

The fire is larger than the city of Los Angeles, which covers about 469 square miles (1,214 square kilometers), and now ranks seventh on the list of the state’s top 10 largest wildfires by acreage, Cal Fire said in a social media post.

Andrea Douglas holds her head while evacuating as the Park Fire jumps Highway 36 near Paynes Creek in Tehama County, Calif., on Friday.

Noah Berger/AP

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Nearly 2,500 firefighters were battling the blaze, aided by 16 helicopters and numerous air tankers.

Jeremy Pierce, a Cal Fire operations section chief, said firefighters were taking advantage of the cooler weather while it lasts: “We’re having great success today.”

Susan Singleton and her husband packed their SUV with clothes, some food and their seven dogs and rushed to evacuate their home this week in Cohasset, a town of about 400 northeast of Chico. They have since learned that their house burned down.

“Everything else we had burned up, but getting them out, getting us out, was my priority,” Singleton said Saturday, standing outside her SUV as her dogs rested. They have all been sleeping in the car outside a Red Cross shelter at a church that does not allow animals, and Singleton, 59, said the next thing is to find a place for her pets to stretch out.

“We’ve got to have a place to land and stop doing this, because this is what’s stressing me out,” she said.

Overall more than 110 active fires covering 2,800 square miles (7,250 square kilometers) were burning in the U.S. as of Friday, according to the National Interagency Fire Center.

Flames leap above fire vehicles near Paynes Creek in Tehama County, Calif.

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In Southern California, a blaze in the Sequoia National Forest swept through the community of Havilah after burning more than 48 square miles (124 square kilometers) in less than three days. The town of 250 people had been under an evacuation order.

Crews were also making progress on a complex of fires in the Plumas National Forest near the California-Nevada line, Forest Service spokesperson Adrienne Freeman said. Traffic was backed up for miles near the border along the main highway linking Los Angeles and Las Vegas.

The most damage so far has been to the Canadian Rockies’ Jasper National Park, where 25,000 people were forced to flee and the park’s namesake, a World Heritage site, was devastated, with 358 of the town’s 1,113 structures destroyed.

Late Friday in eastern Washington, crews stopped the progress of a fire near Tyler that destroyed three homes and five outbuildings, the Washington Department of Natural Resources said.

Two fires in eastern Oregon, the Durkee and Cow Valley blazes, burned about 660 square miles (1,709 square kilometers).

And in Idaho, homes, outbuildings and a commercial building were among structures lost in several communities including Juliaetta, which was evacuated Thursday. The grouping of blazes referred to as the Gwen Fire was estimated at 41 square miles (106 square kilometers) in size with no containment.

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The US and Japan have outlined the most significant upgrade to their joint military alliance since 1960, warning that China’s aggressive posture posed the “greatest strategic challenge” in the Indo-Pacific region and beyond.

The allies want to bolster their security ties to respond to what they view as a growing threat from China. At a bilateral meeting on Sunday, Antony Blinken, Lloyd Austin and their Japanese counterparts, discussed how China employs political, economic and military coercion of countries, companies and civil society, a statement said.

“Such behaviour is a serious concern to the Alliance and the entire international community, and represents the greatest strategic challenge in the Indo-Pacific region and beyond,” said the statement. 

At the start of his meeting with Japanese foreign minister Yōko Kamikawa, Blinken said: “We see the US and Japan side by side in so many places where it matters around the world.”

Central to their agreement, first reported by the Financial Times, is a landmark upgrade to America’s military command structure in Japan, which will involve placing greater operational control in the hands of locally based US leadership.

Co-ordination between the allies had long been hampered because although roughly 50,000 American military personnel are based in Japan, the US Forces Japan (USFJ) lacked command and control authority. Japan has had to deal more with the US Indo-Pacific Command in Hawaii, which is 19 hours behind Tokyo and is 6,500km away. 

The upgrade involves placing a three-star commander and accompanying staff in Japan, according to officials with knowledge of the talks. The USFJ will be reconstituted as a joint force headquarters to allow their militaries to co-operate and plan more seamlessly, particularly in a crisis such as a Taiwan conflict. The three-star commander, who would report to the Indopacom commander, was unlikely to be from the US Navy, one of the officials said.

The details were unveiled three months after President Joe Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida agreed at a summit in Washington to modernise their alliance structure.

Officials involved on both sides of the preparations for Sunday’s meeting expressed surprise at how quickly the agreement had translated into action, but noted an increasingly fragile regional security situation with instability being created by China, Russia and North Korea.

In the joint statement, the US and Japan also agreed to bolster bilateral training and exercises in Japan’s Southwest islands, which Tokyo calls the Nansei islands, where China has recently increased its naval presence