Connect with us

News

It is not too late for Joe Biden to go

Published

on

It is not too late for Joe Biden to go

Unlock the US Election Countdown newsletter for free

The best that can be said of Joe Biden’s stumbling debate performance was that it took place in June. If he were pressed to step down as nominee there would still be two months to go before the Democratic convention. For Biden’s loyalists, who have always moved swiftly to shut down any hint of dissent about his candidacy, Thursday night was a moment of truth. For more than a year, private conversations in Washington have been dominated by the president’s ageing. But the public omerta on that topic broadly held up. That cognitive dissonance has now collapsed. The story is now about whether Biden can be persuaded to step down.

The choice is his alone. Having crushed the Democratic nomination, Biden would be within his rights to ignore pleas to step aside. Potential alternative nominees, such as Gavin Newsom, California’s governor, and Gretchen Whitmer, Michigan’s governor, will be unlikely to speak out. The risk of being labelled a traitor and ruining their presidential chances would be too great. There is no such thing as a committee of party elders who can prevail on Biden to vacate the crown. He is the leader of the party. A tap on the shoulder from the younger Hillary Clinton, 76, or the much younger Barack Obama, 62, would risk backfiring.

Those who know Biden best say the only people who could influence him are his family, starting with the first lady, Jill Biden. Biden is a stubborn man. Most presidents are. Until Thursday night, he believed he was the only Democrat who could beat Donald Trump. Now it looks like he is on a course to defeat in November. As Biden’s mumbling, and often inaudible, performance went on, the prediction markets reacted in real time. By the end of the debate, one political betting market, PredictIt, gave Trump a 61 per cent chance of winning, having started the debate at 53 per cent. This put a number on what almost everyone was thinking.

Advertisement

The risk for Democrats now is two-fold. The first is that Biden simply refuses to budge. Indeed, that is still the likeliest outcome. While the debate was happening, Biden’s aides were putting it about that he was suffering from a heavy cold, which explained his hoarse delivery. By this point, everyone had forgotten Trump’s forecast that Biden would take a “shot in the ass”, or even cocaine, to enhance his performance. If Biden believes he simply had a bad night, he could eat up the precious time Democrats have to elect a replacement. The worst thing he could do is cling on for another few weeks then step down. He would need to make the announcement in the next few days.

The second risk is that Biden does decide to step aside in good time and the Democratic party descends into civil war. Another reason Biden has been so reluctant to consider quitting is the unpopularity of Kamala Harris, the vice-president. But as the first female and non-white vice-president, it would be provocative for Biden to endorse anyone else. If he did not name Harris as his heir apparent, the party could polarise along ideological lines. Anyone competing with Harris for the nomination, particularly a white male, would risk being depicted as the enemy of progress. A bitter Democratic nomination battle culminating in a divisive convention in Chicago offers too many historical echoes for comfort. The last time Democrats held their convention in that Midwestern city was in 1968. It turned into a circular firing squad.

These risks were already known. But the upsides are suddenly clearer. Many democracies can hold a general election and change their government in the timeframe between now and the Chicago convention. Indeed, Britain looks set to do so next week having declared a snap election in late May. The fact that no US party has held an open convention in recent memory should be no obstacle. Everything about America’s 2024 presidential race is unprecedented. This includes the advanced age of both candidates and the fact that one of them, Trump, has repudiated the results of the last election.

Bill Clinton once said Americans prefer “strong and wrong” to “weak and right”. On Thursday, those two options were on the debate stage. Every Democrat, including Biden, tirelessly repeats that democracy is on the ballot this November. They argue that the stakes for America are existential. The question now is whether they have the ruthlessness to act on those beliefs.

There is no shortage of Democratic talent. Nor would a noisy contest necessarily be bad for the party. Democrats would be showcasing the lively democratic process that they believe is in peril. The question that Biden, and the first lady, must now ask themselves is who Trump would fear more: Biden, or a younger opponent who could fire off the rebuttals that he failed to deliver on Thursday? To a growing number of Democrats, that question answers itself.

Advertisement

edward.luce@ft.com

Continue Reading
Advertisement
Click to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

News

Hungary to join new far-right group in European parliament

Published

on

Hungary to join new far-right group in European parliament

Unlock the Editor’s Digest for free

Hungary’s Viktor Orbán and the poll-topping far-right parties of Austria and the Czech Republic have announced plans to form a new faction in the European parliament, pledging to end support for Ukraine and push for peace talks with Russia.

“Historians will decide in a few years’ time how important this day was — we think this is the day when European policy begins to change,” Orbán said on Sunday at a press conference in Vienna.

“The Brussels elite is resisting. They do not accept the decision of the European [voters]. They don’t want change, they want to hold on to the status quo. That is unacceptable. That is why this current joint group and platform is being created,” he said.

Advertisement

The announcement comes as negotiations to form political blocs enter their final days following European parliament elections in June in which far-right parties made gains across the continent.

The Patriots for Europe, as the proposed new alliance has dubbed itself, will need to sign up MEPs from at least four other EU member states by Thursday to become an official faction, unlocking additional funding, bargaining power and parliamentary leadership roles.

Its founding parties — Austria’s Freedom party (FPÖ), the Czech Republic’s ANO, which recently dropped out of the liberal Renew group, and Hungary’s Fidesz — already have 26 MEPs between them. A group needs at least 23 lawmakers from seven countries to be able to form.

“From this starting signal, all political forces who wish to do so and who want to join in our political and positive reform efforts are very welcome. And from what I have heard in the last few days, there will be more of them,” said FPÖ leader Herbert Kickl. 

FPÖ — which doubled its EU parliamentary seats and is on course to win the Austrian national election in September — is the organising force behind the alliance, which Kickl said was a “carrier rocket” for radical change in Brussels. 

Advertisement

The announcement marks a formal break between the FPÖ and France’s Rassemblement National, led by Marine Le Pen, in Europe. In the previous parliament the two sat in the Identity and Democracy (ID) group.

The RN is expected to emerge as France’s leading party in the first round of voting on Sunday in the country’s election. In Europe, the RN’s efforts to moderate its views in order to secure votes at home have slowly opened a rift with more hardline parties, however.

Le Pen forced the expulsion of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party from ID after its lead election candidate said not all Nazi SS soldiers were criminals. The exclusion was opposed by FPÖ.

Attitudes towards Russia have emerged as a crucial dividing line on the right, with ultraconservative parties such as Poland’s Law and Justice (PiS) and Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy staunchly opposed to any rapprochement with Moscow over Ukraine.

However, the PiS party has not ruled out joining the new group. “We are observing developments,” said an official.

Advertisement

“We will not stand idly by and watch a European superstate develop in which the parliaments of the member states are reduced to a kind of folklore department,” said Kickl, calling for a more forthright agenda against Europe’s “radical centrism”. His opening remarks also contained numerous reference to “peace” with Russia.

The FPÖ has a long history of close relations with President Vladimir Putin, and has been harshly critical of Ukraine since Russia began its full-scale invasion of its neighbour in 2022. 

Alongside Orbán and Kickl, ANO’s Andrej Babiš signed a “patriotic manifesto” that they have sent to other far-right parties in Europe as the founding text of the proposed new faction.

“We are here together because we are united by three main priorities that will define our policies in the EU. The defence of sovereignty, the fight against illegal migration and the revision of the Green Deal [plan to combat climate change],” said Babis. 

One powerful potential member would be Germany’s AfD, which has 14 MEPs.

Advertisement

But Hungary’s Fidesz is opposed to teaming up with the German party, according to an AfD official. Leader Alice Weidel told the Financial Times she would keep her options open and not join a group just for the sake of joining.

Despite their increase in the number of seats, far-right parties do not seem on track to wield more power in the EU assembly as they are splintering into more groups than in the former parliament. Simon Hix, professor of politics at the European University Institute, said this development would increase the likelihood that the largest group, the centre-right European People’s party, will pivot to towards the centre and centre-left.

“We’re heading for the most fragmented parliament we’ve ever had. But the fragmentation on the far right will strengthen the centrist coalition, as the EPP will have nowhere else to go.”

Video: Why the far right is surging in Europe | FT Film
Continue Reading

News

Increasing numbers of voters don’t think Biden should be running after debate with Trump — CBS News poll

Published

on

Increasing numbers of voters don’t think Biden should be running after debate with Trump — CBS News poll

For months before the first debate, the nation’s voters repeatedly expressed doubts over whether President Biden had the cognitive health enough to serve. 

Today, those doubts have grown even more: now at nearly three-quarters of the electorate, and now including many within his own party.

And today, after the debate with former President Trump, an increased number of voters, including many Democrats, don’t think Mr. Biden should be running for president at all. Nearly half his party doesn’t think he should now be the nominee.

(Trump, for his part, does better, but still only gets half the electorate thinking he has the cognitive health to serve.)

Advertisement
2-bidentrumpmentalhealth.png

The move came across the partisan board, but it includes a double-digit movement among Democrats, and movement among independents.

Given that, today nearly three in four voters also don’t think Mr. Biden should be running for president in the first place. That’s a higher-percentage sentiment than in February, when almost two-thirds said he should not run.

3-bidenrunning.png
4-bidenrunningdems.png

Most voters who say he shouldn’t run say it’s both about his campaigning and his effectiveness in office, along with his age.

But Democrats’ concerns, when expressed, lean more toward the strategic. They are worried more about his ability to campaign than his decision-making as president.

5-whybidenshouldntrun.png

Trump, by contrast, finds a wide view among Republicans that he should be running. 

Advertisement

That comes as voters widely believe that in the debate, Trump presented his ideas more clearly, appeared more presidential, inspired more confidence, explained his policies better and —quite simply — won the debate. 

This is the case, despite the fact that voters overall think Trump was not as truthful.

And it’s relative, of course. There are plenty of voters who think neither candidate did well.

6-debateperformances.png
7-tellthetruth.png

These views are very similar whether people watched the debate live or just watched highlights or coverage about it, which may speak more generally to the way people get and process information in the modern era.

And Mr. Biden has made no meaningful inroads on convincing voters that a second term would make them financially better off: Trump still is seen as better on this measure.

Advertisement

Nor has Mr. Biden cast himself as better than Donald Trump at protecting democracy.

8-personalfinances.png
9-democracy.png

What now?

After the debate, some Democratic officials reportedly said Joe Biden should step aside as the nominee and give another Democrat a chance to run for president in 2024.

That idea finds resonance with nearly half the nation’s rank-and-file Democrats. 

download.png

That’s related to perceptions of Mr. Biden’s health: Democrats who don’t think Mr. Biden has the mental and cognitive health to serve are more likely to say he shouldn’t be the nominee.

And that former number has increased among Democrats. (It’s also gone up among independents.)

Advertisement
11-bidenmentalhealthdems.png

The debate has brought the presidential race front and center to the minds of registered voters. Now 59% of registered voters say they are thinking a lot about the presidential race, up from 48% just a few days ago. Interest has risen among Democrats and Republicans alike.

thinkingaboutrace.png

This CBS News/YouGov survey is based on a national sample of 1,130 registered voters who were contacted between June 28-29, 2024. All respondents participated in an earlier national survey of 1,881 registered voters fielded June 17-21, 2024. The sample was weighted by gender, age, race, and education, based on the U.S. Census American Community Survey and Current Population Survey, as well as past vote and partisan identification and weighted to account for differential response rates. The margin of error for the sample of registered voters is ±4.2  points.

Advertisement
Continue Reading

News

Video: How Blast Waves Can Injure the Brain

Published

on

Video: How Blast Waves Can Injure the Brain

A growing number of scientists suggest that troops are getting brain injuries from firing heavy weapons. An old party trick involving a beer bottle explains the physics of what happens when a blast wave hits the brain, and the damage it can cause.

Continue Reading

Trending