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I used to represent NY-3 in Congress. Here’s what today’s special election means.

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I used to represent NY-3 in Congress. Here’s what today’s special election means.

I represented the area for 16 years in Congress. Until recently, it was a sleepy, purple suburb, withdrawn from the frenzy of American politics. Most of my town meetings required the incentive of free bagels and coffee to attract a crowd. Ideological passions existed, but most voters were concerned about taxes and traffic on the Long Island Expressway. 

If you want a model of a suburban congressional district that both parties must win in November, look no further than New York’s 3rd Congressional District, on Long Island, where a special election today will replace the expelled George Santos.

In recent years, the district has been thrust into the political limelight. In 2022, it elected Santos, who lied, connived and contrived his way into Congress. If my former district should be rewarded for anything, it’s that we managed to elect a congressman who brought Republicans and Democrats together in a rare bipartisan act to kick him out. Now the special election to replace him occurs when the Speaker of the House has a razor-thin seven-vote majority. The national stakes couldn’t be higher for an electorate that yawns at national politics.

Having served as chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee for four years, I know firsthand that a six-week special election presents a herculean challenge for a candidate to raise money, build name recognition and develop the ground game required to win. And the two parties took radically different approaches to selecting their candidates.

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The Democrats chose former Rep. Tom Suozzi, my successor in Congress, who decided to challenge Gov. Kathy Hochul in the primary in 2022 rather than running for reelection to the House. Normally, the rules of politics dictate that when you take on the leader of your party and lose, you’re finished. You can’t even run for precinct captain. But in a remarkable display of urgency by national Democrats to produce a well-funded, well-known candidate; an act of magnanimity by Gov. Hochul; and no deficit of brashness by Suozzi, he overcame this perceived disloyalty to get the nod.

Suozzi is, on paper at least, the perfect candidate for a condensed special election. He’s been in the public eye since the early 1990s. He was mayor of the city of Glen Cove, Nassau County Executive and a member of Congress. He jumpstarted the special election with high name recognition, proven fundraising and a political organization. 

Meanwhile, the GOP has selected Mazi Melesa Pilip, a virtual newcomer to politics with only two years of experience in the Nassau County Legislature. Pilip has an interesting story to tell voters, as a mother of seven originally born in Ethiopia and a veteran of the Israel Defense Forces. But unlike Suozzi, she’s unknown, untested and has made repeated comments that draw her knowledge of government into question. A recent Newsday editorial found that Pilip lacked awareness of basic government institutions in Nassau County and has been “accompanied at campaign events by a GOP party validator” who helps “to answer questions for her.”

As a result of Pilip’s inexperience, the GOP has strategically put her under wraps with minimal campaign appearances and few debates. Where Santos was a fabulist, Pilip seems to be a phantom. But the strategy may work. 

While the district historically favors Democrats, Republicans have consistently overperformed in recent cycles. Democrats have been winning handily in the suburbs in special elections lately, propelled by abortion and unease with the MAGA movement, but something is wrong on Long Island. President Biden won Nassau County by 10 points in 2020, but Gov. Hochul lost it by 10 points just two years later. 

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What changed? The narrative propelling voter unease on Long Island is crime and immigration. The progressive Democratic message of several years ago to defund the police and institute cashless bail has roiled an electorate that values the orderliness of the suburbs and is home to many residents that commute to New York City for work. And recent headlines have been dominated by busloads of immigrants arriving in NYC. Republicans have pilloried Democrats on these issues, and now they’re hammering Suozzi with the same playbook.

In a debate in the 2022 gubernatorial primary, Suozzi mentioned that he “kicked ICE out of Nassau” when he was county executive. Republicans have pounced on the comment and tried to define Suozzi as an open-borders, sanctuary-city supporting liberal. He’s not, but as the political saying goes, “once you have to explain, don’t bother.” 

Suozzi’s response has been a combination of offense and defense. His campaign and the DCCC remind us that Pilip is running on a national party platform that will ban abortion. (Pilip says she is pro-life but not in favor of a national ban.) At the same time, my mailbox has been stuffed with reminders by the Suozzi campaign that he worked with Republicans to fix the border. One remarkable ad features a photograph of him with former Rep. Peter King, whose centrist politics veered further to the right on immigration and police issues, raising some Democrats’ eyebrows but likely reassuring many moderate voters.

In the end, this election will come down to turnout. It’s a challenge to get voters to the polls in a special election, especially one in the middle of February. The Democrats have an advantage in the air war (money, commercial time, resources and name recognition), but the Republicans are counting on a legendary turnout operation to win it on the ground.

When I speak to Republican leaders, they exude a Churchillian confidence about their turnout operation. Democrats, meanwhile, predict that Trump’s unpopularity, the shadow of George Santos and Republican extremism on abortion will propel moderate voters to reject the GOP.

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No matter the result, Democrats and Republicans will race to parse the electoral tea leaves.

The problem with special elections is that they tend to produce more punditry than voters. Having seen my share of these elections while chair of the DCCC, I know that they detect overtures, not finales. While there is considerable scholarship to indicate some ability of special elections to serve as harbingers for upcoming elections, particularly if the district flips parties, the picture is not entirely clear.

Ultimately, the special election won’t reflect the overall national mood, but it will reveal the pulse in must-win suburban districts in November. And judging by recent polling showing Suozzi’s lead over Pilip being within the margin of error, it’s going to be close.

Steve Israel represented New York in the U.S. House of Representatives over eight terms and was chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee from 2011 to 2015. Follow him @RepSteveIsrael

Copyright 2024 Nexstar Media Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.

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Tech reversal pushes US megacaps into correction territory

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Tech reversal pushes US megacaps into correction territory

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Four of the so-called Magnificent Seven technology stocks that have powered the US market rally for the past nine months ended the week in correction territory, having fallen by more than 10 per cent from recent peaks. 

Another two — Microsoft and Amazon — are close to the double-digit falls that define a correction. Investors are looking ahead to further tech earnings updates next week amid worries about punchy valuations and the risks that returns from vast artificial intelligence-related spending may not live up to early hopes.

Nvidia and Tesla are each down 17 per cent from their recent peaks while Meta and Google parent Alphabet have fallen 14 per cent and 12 per cent. Apple is the best performer in the group, having lost just 7 per cent while Microsoft and Amazon have slid about 9 per cent each.

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On Wednesday Alphabet sparked a wider market sell-off when, despite it reporting solid quarterly operating numbers, its shares fell more than 5 per cent on concerns about AI-related investments. Its $13bn quarterly capital expenditure was almost double the levels of a year ago.

“For a long time investors were really sold on the premise that AI investment in and of itself — spending money — is good,” said Max Gokhman, a senior vice-president at Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions. “What we’re seeing now is . . . investors saying, ‘Hold up a sec, what are the productivity gains here, when do you expect to see them?’”

Alphabet’s fall helped drag the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite to its worst one-day decline in 18 months on Wednesday, down 3.6 per cent. The index ended the week down 2.1 per cent.

Microsoft, Meta, Apple and Amazon earnings next week may set up a fresh test of investor faith in the AI narrative that has been a crucial driver of market gains.

“Expectations are high and valuations for the Mag Seven aren’t cheap. We’re also closer to the point when we see some decelerations in earnings from them as a group — from the beneficiaries of AI in general,” said Josh Nelson, head of US equity at T Rowe Price. 

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Investors this week also showed they were prepared to punish companies that missed expectations, with Tesla losing 12 per cent on Wednesday after slowing sales and its own AI spending shrank profits more than expected. And Ford shares tumbled 18 per cent on Thursday when its profits fell short, hurt by unexpectedly high warranty costs.

On average, companies that missed expectations had seen their shares drop 3.3 per cent in the days surrounding their earnings, according to data from FactSet, more than the five-year average of 2.3 per cent.

Companies that beat expectations saw on average no gains in their share price, FactSet reported.

“The trend of misses getting punished more than beats get rewarded is getting a little bit more significant,” said Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab. “There is uncertainty and skittishness with regard to just how fast the market, driven by those names ran, without the commensurate improvement in their forward earnings prospects.”

Sonders also pointed to the fact that the earnings season under way had coincided with a “rotation” among investors taking profits in the biggest tech names in favour of backing smaller companies that were more likely to see big benefits if the Federal Reserve begins to cut interest rates in September.

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This week, the Russell 2000 index of small-cap stocks added 3.5 per cent while the blue-chip S&P 500 fell 0.8 per cent.

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Boar's Head recalls 200,000 pounds of deli meat linked to a Listeria outbreak

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Boar's Head recalls 200,000 pounds of deli meat linked to a Listeria outbreak

An electron microscope image of a Listeria monocytogenes bacterium, which has been linked to an outbreak spread through deli meat. Boar’s Head recalled meat on Friday, after two deaths and 33 hospitalizations linked to Listeria.

Elizabeth White/AP/Centers for Disease Control and Prevention


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Elizabeth White/AP/Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

Boar’s Head is recalling more than 200,000 pounds of deli meat that could be contaminated with listeria, the Food Safety and Inspection Service announced Friday.

The recall includes all Liverwurst products, as well as a variety of other meats listed in the FSIS announcement. The CDC has identified 34 cases of Listeria from deli meat across 13 states, including two people who died as of Thursday. The statement also said there had been 33 hospitalizations.

The CDC warns that the number of infections is likely higher, since some people may not be tested. It can also take three to four weeks for a sick individual to be linked to an outbreak.

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Listeria is a foodborne bacterial illness, which affects about 1,600 people in the U.S. each year, including 260 deaths. While it can lead to serious complications for at-risk individuals, most recover with antibiotics. Its symptoms typically include fever, muscle aches and drowsiness,

The CDC says people who are pregnant, aged 65 or older, or have weakened immune systems are most at risk. It suggests that at-risk individuals heat any sliced deli meat to an internal temperature of 165°F.

The investigation from the CDC and FSIS is ongoing. This is not the first listeria outbreak of the summer, as more than 60 ice cream products were previously recalled during an outbreak in June.

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US charges short seller Andrew Left with fraud

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US charges short seller Andrew Left with fraud

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A federal grand jury in Los Angeles has charged prominent short seller Andrew Left with more than a dozen counts of fraud, alleging that he made profits of at least $16mn from “a long-running market manipulation scheme”, according to a statement from the Department of Justice.

The DoJ added: “Left knowingly exploited his ability to move stock prices by targeting stocks popular with retail investors and posting recommendations on social media to manipulate the market and make fast, easy money.”

The grand jury indictment charged him with 17 counts of securities fraud, one count of engaging in a securities fraud scheme and one count of making false statements to federal investigators.

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The indictment alleged that Left, who has a high profile on social media, publicly claimed that companies’ share prices were too high or low, often with a recommended target price and “an explicit or implicit representation about Citron’s trading position”. This, the DoJ said, “created the false pretence that Left’s economic incentives aligned with his public recommendation”.

Left prepared to quickly close positions after publishing his comments, taking profits on price moves he had caused, according to the indictment.

It also accused Left of presenting himself as independent and concealing Citron’s links with a hedge fund by fabricating invoices and wiring payments through a third party.

If convicted, Left could face decades in prison. Each securities fraud count carries a maximum penalty of 20 years in prison, while the securities fraud scheme and false statements counts each carry a maximum prison term of 25 years and five years, respectively.

The US Securities and Exchange Commission has also filed a separate civil fraud case against Left and his firm Citron Research, claiming the founder made $20mn from a “multi-year scheme to defraud followers.” Left declined to comment on the DoJ and SEC charges.

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“Andrew Left took advantage of his readers. He built their trust and induced them to trade on false pretences so that he could quickly reverse direction and profit from the price moves following his reports,” said Kate Zoladz, regional director of the SEC’s Los Angeles office. “We uncovered these alleged bait-and-switch tactics, which netted Left and his firm $20mn in ill-gotten profits, and we intend to hold Left and his firm accountable for their actions.”   

The practice of betting that a company’s share price will go down has long been controversial — opponents say it gives traders incentives to spread misinformation, while supporters argue that it improves price discovery and holds management accountable. Last year the SEC adopted new rules that require investors to disclose short positions more quickly and fully.

Left has been most vocal recently in his scepticism over GameStop, the ailing video games retailer. In May it raised $3bn selling new shares following a surge in its price driven by the reappearance of Roaring Kitty — whose real name is Keith Gill — who was instrumental in the 2021 meme stock mania that had sent its value rocketing.

Left told followers in mid-June that Citron had closed its short position on the stock not because he had changed his views but because of GameStop’s newly-strengthened balance sheet.

In 2016, Left received a five-year “cold shoulder” ban from regulators in Hong Kong — a landmark ruling for the city — temporarily barring him from its markets after he was found culpable of misconduct related to a research report he published on Chinese property developer China Evergrande.

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Additional reporting by Stefania Palma in Washington and Brooke Masters in New York

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