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How the Nation Swung Back to Trump in 2024

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How the Nation Swung Back to Trump in 2024

Pennsylvania, a crucial swing state, shifted red in 2016, blue in 2020 and back to red in 2024.

How the shifts are calculated: In 2020, Joseph R. Biden, Jr., won Pennsylvania by 1.2 percentage points. In 2024, Mr. Trump won the state by 1.9 points, as of Wednesday evening. The gap between those margins is the shift, which in this case is 3.1 points in favor of Republicans.

Other swing states

The four other swing states that have been called so far also moved to the right, sealing Mr. Trump’s second presidential win. In Georgia, Mr. Trump reversed two consecutive blue shifts.

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Cities and suburbs

While Mr. Trump lost to Kamala Harris in many swing state cities and suburbs, he did so by a smaller margin than he lost to now-President Biden in 2020. In all but one example shown below, two blue shifts in 2016 and 2020 were followed by a red shift in 2024.

Rural-urban divide

Around the country, in counties where nearly all votes are in, the trend was similar. Support for Mr. Trump continued to increase in rural counties, while Ms. Harris lost ground in cities and suburbs.

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Race and ethnicity

Mr. Trump made significant inroads with Latino voters in 2020. In this election, he continued to grow his margins in counties with large populations of Hispanic residents. There were also shifts to the right in counties with large populations of Black and Native American residents.

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Educational attainment

Mr. Trump’s margins widened over the past three elections in counties with large populations of residents without college degrees. But in this election, he also gained ground in counties with a high share of college graduates.

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Economic types

In 2024, Mr. Trump’s support in farming counties continued to grow. He also reversed Democratic gains in mining and manufacturing counties.

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Age

Mr. Trump has generally been more popular with older voters, but his electoral performance improved across other age groups.

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Across the country

In all 34 states where at least 95 percent of votes were in as of Wednesday evening, the vote margin for Mr. Trump had increased, even in places that historically favored Democrats.

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Map: 4.1-Magnitude Earthquake Strikes Tennessee

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Map: 4.1-Magnitude Earthquake Strikes Tennessee

Note: Map shows the area with a shake intensity of 3 or greater, which U.S.G.S. defines as “weak,” though the earthquake may be felt outside the areas shown.  All times on the map are Eastern. The New York Times

A light, 4.1-magnitude earthquake struck in Tennessee on Saturday, according to the United States Geological Survey.

The temblor happened at 9:04 a.m. Eastern about 12 miles southeast of Greenback, Tenn., data from the agency shows.

Follow our coverage here.

As seismologists review available data, they may revise the earthquake’s reported magnitude. Additional information collected about the earthquake may also prompt U.S.G.S. scientists to update the shake-severity map.

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Source: United States Geological Survey | Notes: Shaking categories are based on the Modified Mercalli Intensity scale. When aftershock data is available, the corresponding maps and charts include earthquakes within 100 miles and seven days of the initial quake. All times above are Eastern. Shake data is as of Saturday, May 10 at 9:21 a.m. Eastern. Aftershocks data is as of Sunday, May 11 at 2:20 a.m. Eastern.

Maps: Daylight (urban areas); MapLibre (map rendering); Natural Earth (roads, labels, terrain); Protomaps (map tiles)

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China and US kick off high-stakes trade talks in Geneva

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China and US kick off high-stakes trade talks in Geneva

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Beijing and Washington began high-stakes trade negotiations in Geneva on Saturday as Chinese official media reiterated calls for the US to lift its tariffs on exports from the country to show its “sincerity”.

The meeting between Chinese negotiators led by Vice-Premier He Lifeng and a US team headed by Treasury secretary Scott Bessent comes a day after Donald Trump signalled his openness to cutting tariffs on China to de-escalate their trade war.

“High-level economic and trade talks between China and the United States began in Geneva,” state news agency Xinhua said in a brief statement on the meeting, which is expected to last two days. It did not provide further details on He’s team. Bessent is being accompanied by trade representative Jamieson Greer in the talks.

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Late Saturday, a person familiar with the matter said the talks had convened for the day and would resume on Sunday. 

In a post on his Truth Social platform, Trump said the two sides had negotiated “a total reset negotiated in a friendly, but constructive, manner.”

On Friday, Trump suggested the US could cut its tariffs to 80 per cent on Chinese goods from 145 per cent, while calling on Beijing to open its markets to American products. But he added it was up to Bessent.

People familiar with the matter said it was important not to take Trump literally and that the figure was probably a negotiating tactic.

Washington and Beijing have engaged in tit-for-tat tariff measures since Trump placed levies on China in February. Bessent later said that the overall level of tariffs in both directions amounted to a de facto trade embargo that was “not sustainable”.

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Ahead of the talks, Bessent lowered expectations of a big economic and trade deal. He said the talks were focused on reducing tariffs in both directions to create space for longer-term negotiations that would focus on more than just the US trade deficit.

The Chinese Communist party’s nationalist tabloid, the Global Times, on Saturday repeated calls from Beijing for the US to lower tariffs to lay the groundwork for talks.

“The US should make preparations and take actions on issues such as correcting its wrong practices and lifting the unilateral tariffs,” it quoted the country’s commerce ministry as saying.

A resolution “hinges on whether Washington can demonstrate the necessary sincerity in talks”, the Global Times said.

It repeated a Chinese saying that “to untie the bell, you need the person who tied the bell” — meaning the person who created a problem is responsible for resolving it. However, Trump has said that he was not willing to unilaterally reduce tariffs.

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Beijing is also concerned about a US trade deal with the UK, the first struck by Washington after it imposed “reciprocal” tariffs on partners last month.

As part of the agreement, the UK has accepted strict US security requirements for its steel and pharmaceutical industries, in what diplomats see as a template that Washington could use to exclude China from other countries’ strategic supply chains.

China trade data for April showed international commerce remained resilient despite US tariffs, largely because of higher shipments to third countries, especially some in south-east Asia that are known as conduits for Chinese exports to the US.

Before agreeing to the weekend trade talks, there were several weeks of debate in Beijing about the best way to manage Trump’s demands, with some officials opposed to talks before the US took good faith measures such as cutting tariffs, according to two people briefed on the discussions. 

One of the people said that some officials were also concerned about the signal it would send to other countries if Beijing decided to negotiate, believing it might lessen their resolve to stand fast alongside China in upholding the WTO led trade order.  

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Chinese officials are most worried about the US pushing its allies to form a new trade order without it.

China this week sought to make an example out of India for favouring the US in its dealings, imposing anti-dumping duties of up to 166.2 per cent on imports of an Indian pesticide, Cypermethrin.

Aside from tackling dumping, the action was intended to warn other countries not to use China as a bargaining chip in trade talks with the US, said Yuyuan Tantian, a social media account affiliated with China’s state broadcaster CCTV.

It pointed to a decision by New Delhi to impose a 12 per cent temporary tariff on some imported steel last month, with China the “main target”, on the same day that JD Vance, US vice-president, visited India.

“Many analysts have pointed out that India’s move is likely to cater to the United States’ crackdown on China’s manufacturing industry,” said Yuyuan Tantian.

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‘Uski fitrat hai mukar jaane ki’: Shashi Tharoor’s poetic swipe at Pakistan after ceasefire violation – Times of India

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‘Uski fitrat hai mukar jaane ki’: Shashi Tharoor’s poetic swipe at Pakistan after ceasefire violation – Times of India
NEW DELHI: ‘Uski fitrat hai mukar jaane ki,’ Congress MP Shashi Tharoor remarked late Saturday night, taking a poetic dig at Pakistan after it breached the ceasefire agreement with India within hours of formally agreeing to it.

Posting on X, Tharoor shared the Hindi couplet, “Uski fitrat hai mukar jaane ki, uske vaade pe yakeen kaise karu,” which roughly translates to, “It’s their nature to go back on their word, how can I trust their promises?” He ended the post with the hashtag #ceasefireviolated.

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Tharoor’s comment came after loud explosions were reported across Srinagar and nearby border districts following the entry of Pakistani drones into Indian territory, mere hours after both nations formally agreed to de-escalate military activity.

As a precaution, several districts across Jammu & Kashmir, Punjab, and Rajasthan were plunged into complete darkness.

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Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri urged Islamabad to respond responsibly. “We call upon Pakistan to take appropriate steps to address these violations and handle the situation with seriousness and responsibility. The Armed Forces are maintaining a strong vigil on the situation and have been given strict instructions to respond firmly to any repetition of border violations along the International Border and the LoC,” he said.

Prior to the ceasefire agreement, India had made its stance clear — any act of terrorism on its soil would be considered an “act of war” and would invite a corresponding response.

Vikram Misri further stated, that the Indian Armed Forces remain on high alert and are fully prepared to retaliate decisively in the event of any further provocations.

Tensions escalated after a sentry at the Nagrota military base detected suspicious movement and opened fire, sustaining minor injuries in the process.

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Meanwhile, Jammu and Kashmir chief minister Omar Abdullah noted military activity resuming in the heart of Srinagar. “This is no ceasefire. The air defence units in the middle of Srinagar just opened up,” he said.

In Srinagar, multiple explosions were reported, leading to the immediate activation of air defence systems.

Pakistani drones were also detected and neutralised over Udhampur, with residents recalling red streaks in the sky and loud explosions during the interception.

In Gujarat’s Kutch district, similar drone sightings prompted a complete blackout. “Several drones have been spotted in the Kutch district.”

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