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Forget a soft landing. The market’s best hope is a ‘growth’ recession | CNN Business

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Forget a soft landing. The market’s best hope is a ‘growth’ recession | CNN Business

A model of this story first appeared in CNN Enterprise’ Earlier than the Bell publication. Not a subscriber? You may join proper right here. You may hearken to an audio model of the publication by clicking the identical hyperlink.


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Traders are waking as much as the cruel actuality of simply how a lot ache the economic system might need to endure because the Federal Reserve continues its battle in opposition to stubbornly excessive inflation.

The Fed darkened its tone ultimately week’s coverage assembly, warning of significant financial hardship forward, and markets lastly took the central financial institution at its phrase.

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The S&P 500, already in a bear market, skilled one other main downswing on Friday. The Dow fell briefly into bear territory and closed at its lowest degree since 2020.

However whereas buyers have waivered between whether or not the Fed will obtain a “onerous” or “delicate” touchdown, there’s a 3rd, in-between chance the place every part feels sort of dangerous for a protracted time period. At this level, that financial purgatory could also be buyers’ greatest hope.

What’s taking place: The Fed has had the identical purpose because it started climbing rates of interest to battle inflation in March. It needs to realize a delicate touchdown — that Goldilocks excellent of cooling the economic system sufficient to carry down costs however not sufficient to trigger a recession. However the concept has grown more and more untenable as inflation charges stay stubbornly excessive whereas financial knowledge softens.

The brand new purpose seems to be for a so-called development recession: A protracted interval of meager development and rising unemployment. The ache is sharper and lasts longer than that of a delicate touchdown, however a “development” recession doesn’t pull all the economic system into contraction the way in which a correct recession would. It appears like a recession, and looks like a recession, nevertheless it isn’t a recession — no less than not formally.

The central financial institution’s up to date financial projections final week confirmed that it expects to land on this state of affairs. Policymakers revised down their forecasts for financial output by the top of 2024 and raised forecasts for the unemployment price from their final projections printed in June.

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Final week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged that the dream a delicate touchdown is over. “Lowering inflation is prone to require a sustained interval of below-trend development,” the chair stated after saying one other three-quarters of a share level rate of interest hike. There “will very possible be some softening of labor-market circumstances,” he added.

A development recession is nonetheless painful. In a best-case state of affairs, stated Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM US, between 5 and 6 million US jobs must be misplaced to carry inflation right down to the Fed’s 2% purpose.

The declaration of the recession may simply be a tutorial train anyway, stated Kevin Gordon, senior funding analysis supervisor at Charles Schwab, as individuals are already struggling economically.

Low-income Individuals are experiencing adverse actual wage development, buyers are dropping severe cash throughout a number of asset lessons, homebuyers are being shut out of a housing market that’s too costly and renters are struggling to afford their leases.

The underside line: Elevated housing costs, aching tech shares, sizzling inflation and battle in Europe are weighing on buyers. The Federal Reserve’s new warning that it isn’t afraid to spark financial ache provides to the noise. Goldman Sachs and Financial institution of America each downgraded their annual S&P 500 targets final week.

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“We will anticipate continued market turbulence for a while,” stated Brad McMillan, chief funding officer for Commonwealth Monetary Community.

However there’s a silver lining. “The Fed is performing surgical procedure proper now on the economic system,” stated McMillan. “Within the quick run, it’s painful. However in the long term? It’s a therapeutic course of and one which units the stage for a more healthy economic system and markets.”

Britain’s new authorities introduced a sweeping plan to rescue the British economic system from recession on Friday.

Asserting the most important tax cuts in 50 years concurrently boosting spending, Finance Minister Kwasi Kwarteng defended the federal government’s give attention to development regardless of persistent inflation woes as a “new strategy for a brand new period.”

Markets immediately made it clear that they weren’t huge followers of the strategy, experiences my colleague Julia Horowitz.

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The British pound crashed beneath $1.10 by mid-afternoon, hitting a brand new 37-year low in opposition to the buck, earlier than diving to its lowest degree ever in opposition to the US greenback early on Monday. UK authorities bonds have additionally bought off sharply, sending yields hovering.

Traders expressed confusion on the unconventional strategy that will see the federal government borrow tens of billions extra to stimulate spending, simply because the Financial institution of England makes an attempt to chill the economic system to carry down inflation. The central financial institution on Thursday pushed its key price to its highest degree since 2008. It was the seventh rate of interest hike since December.

New Prime Minister Liz Truss defended her authorities’s controversial announcement in an unique interview with CNN’s Jake Tapper on Friday. Truss advised Tapper that by chopping taxes, her authorities was “incentivizing companies to take a position and we’re additionally serving to strange folks with their taxes.”

Marc Benioff and Elon Musk have one thing in widespread.

The Salesforce chairman and co-CEO, loves Twitter. If it have been as much as simply him, he advised CNN’s Poppy Harlow in an interview, he would “completely” purchase the social media platform.

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However not like Musk, he’s not going to really make a suggestion.

“I’ll by no means purchase Twitter,” Benioff clarified to Harlow. “As a result of I would like one thing doesn’t imply I’m going to have it…I wish to go have a sundae proper now with three scoops of ice cream, chocolate sauce and whipped cream and a cherry. However I’m not going to have it.”

His feedback come in the midst of Twitter’s authorized battle with Elon Musk, who supplied to purchase the corporate however then terminated the deal, experiences my colleague Paul R. La Monica.

Nonetheless, he thinks that there may very well be an enormous, unrealized upside to the corporate. Twitter, he stated, “is the best, most unrealized, most un-monetized model” in tech, including that “it’s an incredible firm, superb model, superb platform and may do unimaginable issues for the longer term.”

Salesforce thought of a Twitter deal in 2016. Nevertheless it was to not be, as Salesforce buyers balked on the concept of a Twitter takeover.

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Salesforce did ultimately make one other massive deal, buying the workforce collaboration app Slack for $27.7 billion in late 2020.

Boston Fed President Susan Collins, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan and Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester all communicate.

Later this week: US client confidence, US new residence gross sales and the top of the third quarter. 

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Rio Tinto and Glencore held talks about combining their businesses

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Rio Tinto and Glencore held talks about combining their businesses

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Rio Tinto and Glencore held talks last year about combining part or all of their businesses, in an indication of how the push by mining companies to secure metals needed for the energy transition has focused executives on large-scale deals.

The London-listed companies engaged in early-stage talks as recently as October, according to people familiar with the matter, but the discussions did not progress to a deal.

A full-blown merger between Rio and Glencore — which have market capitalisations of $103bn and $55bn, respectively — would rank among the largest-ever transactions in the mining industry.

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The talks between the two companies followed BHP’s failed £39bn bid for Anglo American last year, which prompted rivals to review strategic options.

BHP was interested in Anglo’s copper mines, among other assets, because the metal is used in renewable energy projects and electric vehicles.

Glencore and Rio declined to comment. Bloomberg first reported the companies had discussed combining their businesses.

Rio has been looking to boost its exposure to commodities including lithium and copper to offset weakness in the iron ore market as demand from China slows.

Glencore owns stakes in two significant copper mines — Collahuasi in Chile and Antamina in Peru — that would boost its production of the metal by almost 1mn tonnes a year and offer substantial expansion capacity, according to analysts.

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A potential deal with Glencore would be complicated by the Swiss-based company’s heavy exposure to thermal coal, a commodity Rio has abandoned in recent years.

Matthew Haupt, a portfolio manager at Wilson Asset Management, which owns shares in Rio, said the deal “didn’t make a lot of sense” given Rio’s efforts to get out of coal and invest in renewable energy to power its operations.

Glencore, which has a large commodity trading business and mining operations, has been debating the future of its coal business.

The company said in 2023 it would spin out its coal mines into a separate listed business but changed its mind last year and decided to retain them. 

Glyn Lawcock, an analyst with investment bank Barrenjoey, said coal assets could be spun out as a separate company as part of any agreement. He added there was little overlap between the two companies, meaning there were few synergy benefits from a merger and a deal would need to be justified by asset diversification and creating more scale.

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Ray David, a portfolio manager at Blackwattle Investment Partners, which owns Rio’s UK-listed shares, said Rio could fund an acquisition of Glencore by issuing shares in Australia, which would rebalance Rio’s share structure and close the value gap between its Australian and London listings.

Activist investors, including Blackwattle, have urged Rio to move its primary listing to Sydney — where its stock trades at a premium — to simplify share-based deals.

Rio’s Australia-quoted shares fell 1.8 per cent in early trading in Sydney on Friday, before climbing back to be down 0.5 per cent.

Demand for commodities required to decarbonise the global economy — such as copper, lithium and aluminium — has triggered a flurry of dealmaking activity in the mining industry over the past year.

Rio last year announced a $7bn deal to acquire Arcadium Lithium to increases its presence in metals used in batteries for electric vehicles. People close to the company said it was still digesting that transaction. 

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Rio previously rejected a takeover bid by Glencore in 2014.

Lawcock said the reaction from some Rio investors in Australia was one of unease given Glencore’s reputation for smart dealmaking.

“Shareholders have said I don’t want any of my companies sitting across the table from Glencore,” he said.

Blackwattle’s David said the fact talks had ended showed Rio remained cautious in a consolidating market.

“I suspect Glencore wants a high premium,” he said. “It is a positive sign [that talks ceased] as it shows Rio is being disciplined and aware of not destroying shareholder value. It would be easy to panic.”

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ICE estimates it would need $26.9 billion to enforce GOP deportation bill

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ICE estimates it would need .9 billion to enforce GOP deportation bill

Detainees do a virtual visit with their attorneys or asylum officers at the Port Isabel Detention Center hosted by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement Harlingen Enforcement and Removal Operations center on June 10, 2024 in Los Fresnos, Texas.

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The Homeland Security Department is warning lawmakers in Congress that a proposed immigration enforcement bill would cost $26.9 billion to implement in its first year and “would be impossible for [Immigration and Customs Enforcement] to execute within existing resources.”

The Senate is currently weighing amendments on the Laken Riley Act, which would direct federal immigration enforcement to detain and deport anyone in the U.S. without legal status if they have been charged, arrested or convicted of burglary, theft, larceny or shoplifting.

The bill passed the House last week with more Democratic support than the previous time the body voted on it. The bill has been broadly seen as a marker emphasizing Washington’s focus on immigration and border security as President-elect Donald Trump is about to be inaugurated.

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Some Senate Democrats are giving the measure a chance. This week, a bipartisan set of procedural votes opened up the measure to further debate and changes.

But the agency in charge of carrying out the potential new law warns that it may physically not be able to.

New estimates from an internal ICE document obtained and verified by NPR show that the agency would need 110,000 more detention beds and over 10,000 enforcement and removal operations personnel to increase apprehensions, detentions and removals. More than 7,000 additional attorneys and support personnel would also be needed to handle immigration proceedings, according to the estimates.

The document notes that a figure of $3.2 billion “has been shared widely as a cost estimate,” but calls that number incorrect because it “does not represent the full cost of implementation.” The document says the previous estimate — outlined in a three-page memo from ICE sent in response to questions from one of the bill’s House sponsors — was based “on only 60,000 beds.”

Sen. Katie Britt, R-Ala., who introduced the measure in the Senate, did not respond to a request for comment. The measure that passed in the House does not include funding for additional ICE staff or resources. ICE declined to comment on its ability to enforce the bill.

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Senate Democrats and Republicans are working through several proposed amendments to the measure. There is not a timeline yet for a final floor vote.

The bill is named after a Georgia nursing student who was killed last year by a Venezuelan man who was in the U.S. without legal status. Her death became a rallying cry for Republicans, who criticized the Biden administration’s approach to border security. Her assailant, Jose Ibarra, was convicted in November and sentenced to life in prison without parole. Ibarra had previously been charged with shoplifting in New York, leading Republicans to argue that if the law had been in place, Riley may still be alive.

The bill’s critics have said it could lead to innocent people being thrown into detention without due process, and note that research shows that immigrants commit less crimes than those born in the U.S.

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Donation Scams Compound Suffering for Wildfire Victims

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Donation Scams Compound Suffering for Wildfire Victims

Erin Berkowitz lost her rental home in Altadena to the Eaton fire. The blaze destroyed her home art studio, the outdoor kitchen where she created textile dyes and her business inventory, including hundreds of pieces of custom-made clothing and accessories.

To help with her losses, a friend created a fund-raising page for her on GoFundMe. But within hours, she learned that there was another GoFundMe page that looked identical to the one her friend created, except for a slightly different URL.

“Someone has tried to just make their way in and try to profit off of my tragedy,” said Ms. Berkowitz, a 36-year-old artist and educator.

The page appeared to be one of several fake online fund-raisers that Los Angeles officials have warned people to watch out for. Such sites detailing stories of loss and desperation — family homes obliterated, neighborhood schools in ruins, restaurants desperate to rebuild — are now a ubiquitous symbol of the destruction wrought by the fires. But scammers can use them to prey on the generosity of people across the globe.

“We’re concerned, as has been mentioned in previous press conferences, that there’s a number of sites that are fake,” Mayor Karen Bass said Thursday morning.

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Rob Bonta, California’s attorney general, said at a news conference last weekend that scammers can create “fake organizations masquerading as charities,” often targeting elderly people and those whose first language is not English.

“We have people with big hearts who want to help,” he said. “We also see scammers who are taking advantage of that goodness and that generosity.”

GoFundMe said that more than $100 million has been raised on its platform to help victims of the Los Angeles fires.

Ms. Berkowitz was particularly worried that the mere existence of a fake page — which GoFundMe has since taken down — would jeopardize the thousands of dollars that the page her friend made had raised.

“This is now my lifeline to survival. Someone has threatened it,” she said of her thinking when she learned about the fake page.

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Ms. Berkowitz said there was also an Instagram account with a username that was almost identical to hers that was asking her friends and family to donate to the fake GoFundMe page. Ms. Berkowitz said Instagram had initially refused to take the account down, but a Meta spokesman said on Thursday that it had been removed for violating policies.

Consumer protection experts urged people to be vigilant with donation sites and try to verify the account organizing the fund-raiser before sending any money.

Among the red flags to look out for, according to Ally Armeson, executive director of the nonprofit FightCybercrime.org: unsolicited contact for donations; requests for upfront payments in exchange for disaster aid; requests for personal information like a Social Security or bank account number; and aggressive responses to attempts to verify the page.

Ruth Sesswein, the director of consumer protection at the nonprofit Consumer Action, recommended looking up donation organizers on social media and confirming their connection to the beneficiary of the fund-raiser.

To prevent people from falling for scam sites, GoFundMe has set up a page to spotlight verified fund-raisers to help victims of the fires. A team of experts approved all of the fund-raisers on the page.

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A spokeswoman said there are also protections in place to detect fake pages, such as “machine learning to catch higher-risk donations, image and video review to prevent abusive behavior, and partnerships with law enforcement to verify outstanding cases.”

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