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For the U.S., a Tenuous Balance in Confronting Russia

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For the U.S., a Tenuous Balance in Confronting Russia

WASHINGTON — Within the first weeks of the primary main European land struggle of the twenty first century, the USA has despatched tank-killing weapons to Ukrainian forces, however not fighter jets. It’s equipping embattled Ukrainian troops with light-weight “kamikaze” assault drones, however not, at the very least in an apparent manner, conducting an aggressive cyberwar to degrade Russia’s technological benefit.

The White Home will commit no American or NATO planes to the skies above Ukraine, a transfer American officers concern may threat turning a regional struggle into a world conflagration, however it’s offering Ukraine with missiles that would accomplish the identical job of destroying Russian plane.

Such is the tenuous steadiness the Biden administration has tried to take care of because it seeks to assist Ukraine lock Russia in a quagmire with out inciting a broader battle with a nuclear-armed adversary or chopping off potential paths to de-escalation.

Navigating this path has led to a tangle of selections, and typically tortured distinctions, relating to what sorts of help Washington ought to present, even because the state of affairs on the bottom evolves, photos of lifeless civilians flow into across the globe and President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine pleads with Congress and President Biden to do extra to assist.

The balancing act informs each side of American coverage in regards to the struggle, together with the scope of the punishing sanctions imposed on the Russian economic system, the granularity of the battlefield intelligence supplied to Ukrainian troops, the killing energy of the weapons programs coming over the border and whether or not, as Mr. Biden did this previous week, to label President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia as a struggle prison.

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C.I.A. officers are serving to to make sure that crates of weapons are delivered into the arms of vetted Ukrainian navy models, in keeping with American officers. However as of now, Mr. Biden and his workers don’t see the utility of an expansive covert effort to make use of the spy company to ferry in arms as the USA did in Afghanistan in opposition to the Soviet Union through the Eighties. They’ve judged that such a marketing campaign could be an pointless provocation, partially as a result of NATO provide traces stay open and there’s a functioning authorities in Kyiv.

The brand new struggle has compelled a recalculation on different fronts. In a single instance, American officers have floated the thought of Turkey’s authorities offering Ukraine with the subtle S-400 antiaircraft system. It’s the very system, made by Russia, that American officers punished Turkey — a NATO ally — for purchasing from Moscow a number of years in the past. Now American diplomats see a option to pull Turkey away from its dance with Russia — and provides the Ukrainians one of the highly effective, long-range antiaircraft programs in existence.

Within the White Home and the Pentagon, there have been lively debates over which deadly weapons delivered to Ukraine meet the nuanced interpretations of what worldwide regulation permits. American officers acknowledge that the judgments of presidency legal professionals are helpful solely up to some extent, and that each one that basically issues is the judgment of 1 individual: Mr. Putin.

The Russian president has his personal complicated calculus about when the navy help to Ukraine from the USA and its NATO allies crosses the road. He has his personal causes to not escalate, given the mixed energy of the NATO members and his personal navy’s evident difficulties in opposition to Ukrainian forces. However he’s additionally unlikely to just accept defeat or a stalemate in Ukraine with out additional testing American resolve, regardless of specific public warnings from Washington in opposition to using chemical, organic and even nuclear weapons.

American intelligence about Mr. Putin’s determination making is maddeningly imprecise, and the West doesn’t have a robust monitor report predicting what he may think about an aggression that can not be tolerated. William J. Burns, the C.I.A. director, instructed Congress this month that Mr. Putin’s views had “hardened through the years.”

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The Russian threshold may be altering by the day, and even the hour. On Friday, Russia’s overseas minister, Sergey V. Lavrov, recommended that his nation was prepared to raise the costs for any nation serving to the Ukrainians of their battle, declaring that each one automobiles shuttling weapons into Ukraine could be thought of official navy targets.

On Wednesday, the duty of articulating the intricacies of America’s navy coverage towards Ukraine fell to a bunch of generals below a barrage of questions from high members of the Home and Senate Armed Companies Committees.

Mr. Biden has made clear that he won’t accede to Mr. Zelensky’s insistent pleas that NATO impose a no-fly zone over Ukraine. Clearing hostile plane from the skies would put the USA and its allies in fight with Russian forces. And a required step for a no-fly zone — suppressing enemy antiaircraft weaponry — would imply attacking Russian air protection installations inside Russian territory.

However through the closed-door session, lawmakers pressed members of the Pentagon’s Joint Workers about one other flashpoint: the administration’s determination to not assist provide Ukraine with the MIG-29 fighter jets that Poland has supplied and that Mr. Zelensky has mentioned his forces desperately want.

Administration officers have mentioned the transfer could be “escalatory,” and, in keeping with folks briefed on the exchanges, the lawmakers requested the generals if there was any laborious intelligence that the jets may push Mr. Putin towards intensifying the battle by treating the USA as a “cobelligerent” within the struggle.

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Intelligence officers have, in actual fact, instructed the administration that the MIGs may set off a Russian transfer in opposition to NATO. Throughout the congressional briefing, the generals mentioned that the principle situation was the aptitude of a MIG-29 to threaten Russian soil.

In distinction to a Javelin antitank missile that has solely restricted vary on the battlefield, a MIG-29 may fly from Kyiv to Moscow in a matter of minutes, the generals mentioned, a functionality that the Kremlin may see as a direct menace.

The identical day, the White Home put forth one other consideration: that to be delivered to Ukraine, the MIGs must take off from an air base in a NATO nation, presumably inviting retaliation on NATO territory by the Russians.

As a matter of worldwide regulation, the supply of weaponry and intelligence to the Ukrainian Military has made the USA a cobelligerent. However whereas Mr. Putin has made threats about launching assaults to impede the navy help, he has not but acted to cease it by attacking bases in neighboring nations — NATO allies — the place the gear originates.

That would change, U.S. officers mentioned, particularly if Mr. Putin thinks he’s cornered or in peril of shedding.

“It’s a superb line the administration remains to be strolling in each dimension of its help for Ukraine,” mentioned Andrea Kendall-Taylor, a former senior intelligence official who specialised in Russia and is now on the Heart for a New American Safety. “They’re attempting to determine how do you get proper as much as the road with out crossing over in a manner that might threat direct confrontation with Russia.”

Planes with pilots is perhaps off the desk, however armed drones will not be. This previous week, Mr. Biden introduced that the USA would ship small Switchblade drones to Ukraine that may very well be used to explode Russian armored automobiles. The only-use kamikaze drones have blade-like wings, don’t require both a protracted runway or a posh satellite tv for pc uplink, and might be managed to dive-bomb tanks or troops, self-destructing once they explode.

In contrast to the massive Predator and Reaper drones used for many years in Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan and different nations, the transportable drones pose no menace to Russian soil. Nonetheless, the White Home licensed an preliminary cargo of solely 100 of them to Ukraine — a small batch that may very well be meant to see how Mr. Putin reacts to their deployment on the Ukrainian entrance traces. Relying on the response, a whole bunch or 1000’s extra may very well be on the way in which.

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The proposal for Turkey to provide Ukraine with Russian-made S-400 antiaircraft programs would additionally check what Mr. Putin is keen to just accept from NATO — and the way far a NATO ally that in recent times typically gave the impression to be constructing bridges to Moscow is keen to go in reiterating its dedication to the alliance and backing Ukraine.

The concept got here up when Wendy R. Sherman, the deputy secretary of state, visited Turkey two weeks in the past. Ms. Sherman declined to speak about her discussions.

A unique senior American official mentioned the USA knew the proposal would anger Mr. Putin. Ukraine already makes use of Turkish-made drones, however Turkey is fearful that offering the antiaircraft programs may make the nation a goal of Russia’s wrath.

On the identical time, the upside for Turkey may very well be substantial: It was suspended by the Trump administration from the F-35 fighter program — wherein it was each a purchaser and a producer of elements for the superior plane — after its buy of the Russian S-400s. A deal to ship the antiaircraft programs to Ukraine may open the door to re-entry into the F-35 program.

The State Division declined to remark. Officers at Turkey’s embassy in Washington didn’t reply to messages looking for remark.

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The Ukraine struggle options tank columns and trenches, all options of Europe’s bloody conflicts of the previous century. To this point, there may be little proof that the USA — or Russia — is raring to escalate the battle within the twenty first century battleground of our on-line world.

Days earlier than the struggle started, there was a flurry of cyberattacks on Ukrainian monetary establishments and authorities ministries, together with one which was discovered and partly neutralized by Microsoft. A European satellite tv for pc system typically utilized by the Ukrainian navy was additionally hit, knocking out service, although it’s nonetheless unclear whether or not the Russians carried out the assault.

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What has been lacking to this point is a large-scale Russian cyberattack that knocks out the ability grid or communications programs inside Ukraine, which for probably the most half proceed to function regardless of the withering Russian barrage of artillery and airstrikes.

Till the invasion started, United States Cyber Command had a unit based mostly in Kyiv that was serving to the federal government fend off assaults. It’s now working from a close-by NATO nation. There may be fragmentary proof that the USA and its allies labored to counter among the assaults and to forestall others from being launched. However motion appears to have been restricted.

Contained in the Biden administration, there’s a view that Mr. Putin may very well be selecting his second to launch a cyberattack in opposition to the American monetary system in retaliation for the devastating monetary sanctions imposed on his nation by the USA and its allies. Except and till that occurs, the administration seems resolved to not launch a big first strike and invite retaliation — particularly given the dangers to the U.S. economic system and monetary system if Russia have been to focus on them.

“The water in Afghanistan should boil on the proper temperature,” Pakistan’s president, Gen. Mohammad Zia ul-Haq, instructed his intelligence chief as Pakistan started supplying the mujahedeen of their grueling battle in opposition to Soviet troops in neighboring Afghanistan.

In different phrases, scorching sufficient to persuade the Russians that the nation was not definitely worth the battle, however not so scorching to impress a broader struggle within the area.

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The weapons that helped flip the tide of that battle, shoulder-fired Stinger surface-to-air missiles, at the moment are being unloaded from cargo planes in NATO nations and delivered to Ukrainian troops on the entrance traces to assist preserve Russia from controlling the skies.

American officers are divided on how a lot the teachings from Chilly Battle proxy wars, just like the Soviet Union’s struggle in Afghanistan, might be utilized to the continued struggle in Ukraine. Some officers say these conflicts established that the good powers may ship small arms and missiles to proxy forces and not using a triggering a wider struggle.

On the identical time, Ukraine is way extra vital to Mr. Putin than Afghanistan was to Soviet leaders.

Given Russia’s bloody historical past with Stinger missiles, American officers have been cautious of promoting their use in Ukraine. Throughout a visit to an airfield close to Ukraine’s border this month with Gen. Mark A. Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Workers, reporters watched Stinger missiles being unloaded from a cargo aircraft however have been barred from disclosing the whereabouts of the bottom.

Even after two senior American officers instructed the Home Armed Companies Committee throughout a public listening to that Stinger missiles have been among the many munitions being despatched to Ukraine, spokespeople averted utilizing the S-word from the lecterns on the White Home and Pentagon.

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Till this previous week. On Wednesday, the White Home launched an in depth checklist of the weapons it was offering as a part of an $800 million package deal of arms to Ukraine.

On the high of the checklist: “800 Stinger antiaircraft programs.”

Eric Schmitt, Adam Goldman and Michael Crowley contributed reporting.

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Democratic party’s ‘Trump is weird’ strategy rattles Republicans

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Democratic party’s ‘Trump is weird’ strategy rattles Republicans

Kamala Harris has attacked Donald Trump as a threat to individual freedom, economic security and the rule of law in the US since launching her White House campaign nearly two weeks ago.

But the vice-president and her Democratic allies have found a novel way of describing Trump and the Republican party that is unnerving their opponents: describing them as “weird”.

“Some of what he and his running mate are saying, it’s just plain weird,” Harris said during a fundraiser last weekend, as the audience laughed. “I mean, that’s the box you put that in, right?”

Democrats have been trying to portray Trump and his followers as part of an extreme rightwing fringe of American politics for years, including after the January 6 2021 attack on the US Capitol, with mixed success.

But the hardline views on abortion and disparaging comments on women by Trump’s running mate, Ohio senator JD Vance, have highlighted a fresh line of attack from the Democrats. Quips such as Vance’s in a 2021 speech that America was run by “childless cat ladies” have gone viral online, turbocharging the new strategy.

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“These are weird people on the other side, they want to take books away, they want to be in your exam room, that’s what it comes down to,” Tim Walz, the Democratic governor of Minnesota and contender to be Harris’s running mate, told MSNBC two days after she entered the race.

An independent Harris supporters group called “Won’t Pac Down” last month launched an ad called “these guys are just weird” that has since gone viral featuring a series of creepy male “Maga Republicans” saying they want the “government way more involved in your sex life”.

“These opinions that mainstream Republicans in a lot of cases are holding, are honestly just bizarre,” said Travis Helwig, a television producer who created the ad, which is aimed at younger voters.

He added the attack appears to be resonating because while Trump and his allies “enjoy being called threats to democracy”, “‘weird’ is clearly getting under their skin” more.

“It does seem like they’re spiralling a little,” he added.

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Trump and his allies have failed to find an effective response. During his appearance at a conference for black journalists in Chicago this week, the Republican former president oddly questioned Harris’ Black identity, saying it was contrived, triggering a fierce backlash from across the political spectrum.

By Thursday, he was on a conservative podcast trying to defend himself. “I’m a lot of things, but weird I’m not,” Trump said. 

Donald Trump, left, questioned Kamala Harris’s Black identity at a conference this week © Reuters

Republicans are instead accusing Democrats of being petty and hypocritical. “This whole ‘they’re weird’ argument from the Democrats is dumb & juvenile. This is a presidential election, not a high school prom queen contest,” Vivek Ramaswamy, the former biotech investor who ran for the Republican nomination but dropped out and endorsed Trump, wrote on X. 

Democrats have maintained their line. “If Republican leaders don’t enjoy being called weird, creepy, and controlling, they could try not being weird, creepy, and controlling,” Hillary Clinton, the former secretary of state and first lady, also wrote on X.

Martha McKenna, a Democratic strategist, said the Harris campaign’s approach reflected a change from Biden’s message. Not only is it focusing on the concept of defending “freedom” more directly, it’s also bringing some levity to the criticism.

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McKenna said: “I think that the Biden campaign was really focused on the threat to democracy and very high level concepts, which are still very important and very relevant to the presidential campaign. But with this change of candidate, there comes a change of language and a moment in time where you can do a bit of a refresh.”

The Harris campaign’s shift comes as the candidate is building her team of political advisers for the dash to the November election, which is less than 100 days away.

While Harris is retaining Jen O’Malley Dillon as campaign chair — the same role she had for Biden — she has also brought in David Plouffe and Stephanie Cutter, former political advisers to Barack Obama, to help.

Stephanie Cutter speaks in an interview
Stephanie Cutter © Getty Images
David Plouffe
David Plouffe © Getty Images

In addition to the ‘weird’ trope, the Harris campaign continues to focus on serious issues around the Republicans and the implications of the election.

At a fundraiser on Fire Island on Friday, Doug Emhoff, Harris’ husband, said: “We’ve got to push back on that despicable person and his little side kick,” referring to Trump and Vance respectively, and calling the Republican vice-presidential nominee an “extremist and an opportunist”. “We know who he is. He’s told us. He wants to literally just change the way that you all live, the way that we all live,” Emhoff said.

Amy Walter, an independent political analyst at the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter, said Harris is aware that while the attacks on Republican strangeness may be catchy for now, the election will probably be decided on swing voters’ perceptions of the economy.

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“Harris’s first ad doesn’t talk about Trump being ‘weird’ but instead argues that Trump ‘wants to take our country backward to give tax breaks to billionaires and big corporations and end the Affordable Care Act’,” Walter wrote in a note on Friday.

Still, the jibes against Trump and his allies are expected to continue, with the line on oddness ingrained in talking points.

“[Trump] is clearly older and stranger than he was when America first got to know him,” transport secretary and possible Harris running mate Pete Buttigieg, said on Fox News Sunday last month.

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Firefighters continue battling massive wildfire in California ahead of thunderstorms

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Firefighters continue battling massive wildfire in California ahead of thunderstorms

A CL 415 scooper, top, drops water on the Quarry Fire as a Firehawk helicopter maneuvers for a water drop Thursday, Aug. 1, 2024, southwest of Littleton, Colo.

Andy Cross/AP/The Denver Post


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Andy Cross/AP/The Denver Post

CHICO, Calif. — Firefighters made progress Saturday against California’s largest wildfire of the year ahead of expected thunderstorms that could unleash fire-starting lightning and erratic winds and erode progress made over the past week. Dry, hot conditions posed similar threats across the fire-stricken West.

“We’re not completely out of the woods yet, but we’re looking very, very good,” CalFire official Mark Brunton said in a video update Saturday. “This is moving at a very fast pace.”

Containment of the Park Fire, now California’s fourth-largest wildfire on record, was at 27% as of Saturday afternoon. Brunton said the relatively milder weather the last few days allowed firefighters to build containment lines.

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But hotter weather, fuels and terrain will continue posing challenges for the estimated 6,500 firefighters battling the fire, which has spread over 626 square miles (1,621 square kilometers) since allegedly being started by arson in a park in the Sierra Nevada foothills east of the Sacramento Valley city of Chico. For comparison, the city of Los Angeles covers about 503 square miles (1,302 square kilometers).

Suppression crews will also start removing damaged infrastructure in some areas Saturday. People living in the rural communities of Cohasset and Forest Ranch were told they could start returning home Saturday afternoon.

The fire originated at low elevations, where it quickly burned through thick grass and oaks, destroying at least 567 structures and damaging 51 so far. As it has climbed higher, the vegetation has changed to a greater concentration of trees and brush, Cal Fire said.

The fire’s push northward has brought it toward the rugged lava rock landscape surrounding Lassen Volcanic National Park, which has been closed because of the threat. The area remains one of the biggest challenges for firefighters, Cal Fire officials said Saturday afternoon. The smoke has also prevented firefighters from deploying helicopters and other aircrafts the last few days.

“There’s a lot of really steep drainages in that area,” CalFire spokesperson Devin Terrill said. “It takes a lot more time to access those areas.”

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After a brief respite, firefighters are now bracing for treacherous conditions of hot and dry weather, along with expected thunderstorms with potential thunder strikes and gusty winds.

The collapse of thunderstorm clouds can blow wind in any and all directions, said Jonathan Pangburn, a fire behavior analyst with Cal Fire. “Even if there’s not lightning per se, it is very much a safety-watch-out environment for our firefighters out there,” Pangburn said.

The Park Fire is among almost 90 large fires burning across the western U.S. Evacuation orders were in effect for 22 of the fires, according to the National Interagency Fire Center.

Onlookers watch while crews work near the Ken Caryl Ranch development as the Quarry fire burns Thursday, Aug. 1, 2024, southwest of Littleton, Colo.

Onlookers watch while crews work near the Ken Caryl Ranch development as the Quarry fire burns Thursday, Aug. 1, 2024, southwest of Littleton, Colo.

AAron Ontiveroz/AP/The Denver Post


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Crews made progress Saturday against three major fires burning in Colorado near heavily populated areas north and south of Denver, with containment figures improving and some evacuation orders lifted. One of the fires was being investigated as arson. About 50 structures had been damaged or destroyed, about half of them homes, and one person was found dead in a burned home earlier in the week.

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The Jefferson County Sheriff’s Office is investigating a blaze threatening hundreds of homes near the Colorado city of Littleton as arson.

Karlyn Tilley, a spokesperson for Jefferson County Sheriff’s Office, said the investigation is ongoing, and investigators are using a dog specially trained to sniff out sources and causes of fires. Tilley said just because they suspect the fire was human-caused doesn’t mean it was intentional.

Firefighters were making good progress on the fire despite the steep, rocky terrain and blistering heat, and no houses had been burned, officials said.

The cause and origin of a fatal blaze west of the town of Lyons was being probed by the federal Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives, with specially trained fire investigators from the agency helping local authorities, agency spokesperson Crystal McCoy said. The area blackened by that fire remained relatively unchanged after it burned five houses.

The largest of the Colorado fires, west of Loveland, grew to 14.9 square miles (38.5 square kilometers) after previously burning 49 homes and other structures. Its cause is under investigation.

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Scientists say extreme wildfires are becoming more common and destructive in the U.S. West and other parts of the world as climate change warms the planet and droughts become more severe.

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Venezuelan opposition leader emerges from hiding at rally amid crackdown

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Venezuelan opposition leader emerges from hiding at rally amid crackdown

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Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado emerged from hiding on Saturday to appear at an anti-government rally in Caracas, despite a violent crackdown on dissent by the socialist government of Nicolás Maduro.

Machado, who had not been seen in public since Wednesday after Maduro and members of his inner circle publicly called for her jailing, waved a Venezuelan flag from atop a small lorry to the cheers of thousands of supporters.

“We have never been as strong as today, never,” Machado said. “The presence of every one of you here in the streets shows the world the magnitude of our strength and our determination to reach the end.”

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Protests broke out in the South American country on Monday after Maduro claimed victory in a presidential election by a seven point margin over opposition candidate Edmundo González. The National Electoral Council, which is controlled by Maduro’s allies, has refused to publish a detailed breakdown of the results.

The opposition declared González as the real winner with 7.1mn votes compared to Maduro’s 3.2mn, and posted thousands of polling station receipts as evidence. The US on Thursday recognised González as the winner, a move followed by Ecuador, Uruguay, Costa Rica, and Panama. Maduro’s victory was recognised by key allies China, Russia, Iran and Cuba, among others.

González, a retired diplomat, stood as a surrogate of the charismatic Machado, who was banned from running in January, months after she won a primary in a landslide. The Carter Center, a US non-profit organisation and the only independent body in Venezuela to evaluate the election, said the vote “did not meet international standards of electoral integrity at any of its stages”.

Maduro has referred the election dispute to the supreme court, which is controlled by the government. On Friday González did not show up to a hearing in which all 10 candidates in the election were summoned.

On Saturday, supporters from poorer neighbourhoods and the middle classes turned out in the well-to-do Las Mercedes neighbourhood to see Machado, apparently unbent by a crackdown on sporadic protests that began in downtrodden neighbourhoods of the capital on Monday. 

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Since Monday, at least 19 people have been killed according to rights group Provea, and Maduro has claimed that 2,000 people have been arrested. Machado wrote in US media on Thursday that she had gone into hiding amid fears of her imminent arrest. The opposition’s campaign offices were broken into and vandalised in the early hours of Friday morning.

“We are all scared, but what scares me more is continuing under this tyranny,” said Luis Guersi, a 43-year-old engineer at the rally on Saturday.

Colonia Pérez, 34, a street vendor and mother of three, said she had turned out “for the future of my children”.

Maduro, who has presided over an economic crisis, deepening repression, and the exodus of 7.7mn Venezuelans since succeeding the late populist Hugo Chávez in 2013, has framed the protests against his self-declared re-election as a Washington-backed “fascist” coup attempt.

“The extreme right means hatred, vengeance, foreign interventionism and war,” he told supporters and public sector workers at a rival rally in central Caracas on Saturday.

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Earlier on Saturday morning, US assistant secretary of state Brian Nichols said cases of arbitrary arrest, vandalism of opposition officers and violence towards peaceful protesters will be referred to the UN Human Rights agency.

“Having seen the will of the Venezuelan people at the ballot box, Maduro and his representatives have resorted to repression,” Nichols wrote on X. “These acts are unacceptable and demonstrate Maduro’s reliance on fear to cling to power.”

At Machado’s rally, supporters said they would continue to demonstrate in support of González’s victory.

“We want a free Venezuela,” said Deysi Barrios, a publicist whose family has fled the country. “If we don’t rid ourselves of this dictatorship now, we never will.”

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