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EU oil embargo on Russia expected ‘sooner rather than later’

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EU oil embargo on Russia expected ‘sooner rather than later’

Good morning and welcome to Europe Categorical.

The Russia sanctions marathon continues. After two days of conferences, EU ambassadors final evening accredited the fifth bundle, which is because of be revealed within the Official Journal later at present. We’ll discover why some EU officers count on the oil embargo to be a matter of time and what kind it would take.

Past sanctions, EU overseas ministers on Monday are set to debate the bloc’s so-called World Gateway technique (initially geared in the direction of counterbalancing Chinese language investments in Africa). I’ll carry you up to the mark with why some capitals are anticipated to name for a coverage pivot, countering Russian affect in jap Europe and Central Asia.

And with the primary spherical of the French elections developing this Sunday, we’ll have a look at how Marine Le Pen is channeling Brexit slogans in her bid to win the presidency.

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Crude awakening

Josep Borrell, the EU’s prime diplomat, mentioned yesterday that it’s now extra a query of when, reasonably than if, the EU imposes a blockade on Russian oil, writes Sam Fleming in Brussels.

The subject will probably be on the desk for debate at Monday’s overseas affairs council assembly, Borrell mentioned, including: “In the end — I hope sooner — it’ll occur.”

Preparations for an oil ban, doubtlessly as a part of a sixth bundle of EU sanctions, mirror a marked hardening within the temper amongst member states, pushed by the studies of atrocities dedicated by Russian troops in Bucha and different areas that had been underneath occupation.

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Political strain for motion is just mounting. In a symbolic vote, the European Parliament yesterday backed by a big majority an instantaneous full embargo on Russian oil, coal, gasoline and — in a possible signal of issues to come back — nuclear gasoline.

However the satan of any new sanctions on oil will inevitably be within the element. The coal ban that the EU is aiming to push by is prone to take impact solely after a three-month phase-in interval, in response to draft EU plans for the fifth sanctions spherical, for instance.

Among the many questions with any oil embargo is precisely which Russian oil merchandise are affected, how lengthy any phase-in interval will final, and whether or not it’s a full or partial ban. There will even be the query of an accompanying launch of European strategic oil reserves to uninteresting the impression of the measure.

Officers have additionally flagged concepts such because the imposition of tariffs on Russian oil, reasonably than a straight ban as is deliberate with coal, or the choice of paying a part of the cash due for crude imports into an escrow account for use for reconstruction efforts in Ukraine. The latter is an idea advocated by Estonia however which can battle to acquire broad buy-in.

The EU is effectively behind the US in terms of vitality blockades, given it was precisely a month in the past that Joe Biden signed an govt order banning the import of Russian oil, liquefied pure gasoline and coal to the US.

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However then the EU can be much more uncovered to Russian vitality. Politicians are underneath mounting strain from electorates due to surging vitality costs, which had been up almost 45 per cent year-on-year in March — and member states are spending billions looking for to offset among the ache on the pumps.

The danger, in response to some officers, is that any huge new surge in costs pushed by recent sanctions may find yourself undermining public help for the broader panoply of EU measures in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

A bar on oil would even be vastly consequential for Russia. Analysis from the Institute for Worldwide Finance in late March discovered that the EU, UK and US account for near 55 per cent of Russia’s oil and petroleum product exports in quantity phrases.

If the EU does transfer in opposition to Russian crude, it’ll on no account mark the tip of the road in terms of vitality sanctions. Already some member states are asking whether or not restrictions on nuclear gasoline needs to be a part of the sanctions regime.

After which there stays probably the most controversial vitality sanction of all — restrictions on pure gasoline.

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Valdis Dombrovskis, fee govt vice-president, insisted this week that the EU may deal with any ban on Russian gasoline. However inner evaluation by the fee’s companies factors to a chunky 2 share level hit to baseline GDP progress expectations from an interruption to Russian gasoline provides, in response to an individual aware of the matter.

Any such transfer can be enormously divisive between member states, given the outsized position Russian gasoline imports play in some EU economies. However given the tide of grim information from Ukraine, the controversy over gasoline sanctions goes to be very tough to keep away from.

Chart du jour: Reverse reactions

The nation most affected by a complete cease of Russian fossil gasoline imports is Lithuania, which has already gone forward and stopped its gasoline imports from Russia and is without doubt one of the loudest advocates of an oil-and-gas embargo on Moscow. Hungary, alternatively, has mentioned it’s keen to pay for Russian gasoline in roubles, Vladimir Putin’s proposed retaliation for western sanctions. (Extra right here)

Countering Russia

Final yr, the EU introduced a so-called World Gateway technique, designed (if one reads in between the traces) to counter China’s Belt and Highway funding initiative in Africa and different components of the world.

Now some capitals are calling for the funding plan to be refocused to nations the place Russia is utilizing its affect, particularly in jap Europe and Central Asia.

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Shifting the funding priorities to counter each China and Russia these days “would pay the largest geopolitical dividend”, mentioned one EU diplomat.

Some even float the likelihood for components of the €300bn funding plan for use for postwar reconstruction in Ukraine — whilst many others level out that devoted reconstruction funds, together with through the sale of seized Russian belongings, would maybe be higher suited to the duty.

The refocus concept can be assembly some opposition from officers who level to the reputational injury the bloc stands to undergo on the African continent, lower than two months after an EU-African Union summit that was all about investments and the World Gateway technique. Pivoting away from Africa “is certain to make us lose hard-won allies on the pace of sunshine”, one EU official mentioned.

For its half, the European Fee says the technique wasn’t essentially about homing in on one geographical area however reasonably about encompassing the entire world.

“It’s about how the EU can scale back dependencies whereas guaranteeing that Europe stays a related continent,” mentioned fee spokesperson Nabila Massrali.

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She added that particular person member states would possibly wish to focus the funding technique on particular areas “within the geopolitical context of at present”. However the dialogue is unlikely to come back to a conclusion on Monday, Massrali mentioned.

Taking again management

Far-right chief Marine Le Pen, President Emmanuel Macron’s primary rival within the upcoming French presidential election, has urged voters to “take again management” of France by voting for her on Sunday — in an echo of the profitable 2016 Brexit referendum marketing campaign that led to the departure of the UK from the EU, writes Victor Mallet in Perpignan.

At a pre-election rally yesterday within the southern city of Perpignan, one of many few in France to be run by a mayor from her anti-immigration Rassemblement Nationwide social gathering, Le Pen appealed to her supporters to ensure they really forged their ballots within the election. 

“Grow to be residents once more,” she mentioned. “You don’t abstain from a presidential election. Take again management!”

Opinion polls recommend that Le Pen and Macron will win locations as the 2 finalists within the first spherical of voting on Sunday, and that the far-right chief has an opportunity of victory over the incumbent Macron within the second spherical two weeks later. 

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“By no means has the opportunity of an actual change been so shut,” Le Pen advised cheering supporters, arguing that it was time for France to revive regulation and order, curb immigration — and have a lady president for the primary time. 

“Our nation is prepared and I believe it could be an indication of democratic maturity,” she mentioned of the necessity for a feminine head of state. “All those that’ve been in energy have failed. So to all of the French I ask, ‘Ought to we attempt one thing else?’.”

Earlier within the day, Le Pen mentioned she was open to having leftwingers in her authorities if she beat Macron. 

Le Pen mentioned she may “very effectively have individuals for instance from the left loyal to [former Socialist minister Jean-Pierre] Chevènement, in different phrases a sovereignist left, a left which helps reindustrialisation, the defence of our nice industries.”

What to observe at present

  1. European Fee chief Ursula von der Leyen visits Kyiv

  2. EU fifth spherical of Russia sanctions anticipated to be revealed in Official Journal

Good reads

  • Weaponisation of finance: On this two-part Huge Learn, the FT narrates in nice element how probably the most aggressive monetary sanctions up to now got here collectively and what that spells for the way forward for the US greenback — and, to some extent, the euro — as a reserve forex.

  • French gloom: The French citizens is extra disillusioned by the political system as a complete compared with Germans, Scandinavians, Poles or Hungarians, in response to this ballot carried out on behalf of the European Council for International Relations. French respondents suppose their nationwide political system is extra damaged than the EU’s, whereas in Germany the notion was the opposite manner spherical.

  • Postwar ETS: Earlier than Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, the EU had deliberate to develop its emissions buying and selling system to move and housing. This coverage transient by the Centre for European Reform discusses how one can make the next and extra complete EU carbon value each efficient and politically possible.

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Britain after Brexit — Preserve updated with the newest developments because the UK financial system adjusts to life exterior the EU. Join right here

Swamp Notes — Knowledgeable perception on the intersection of cash and energy in US politics. Join right here

Are you having fun with Europe Categorical? Join right here to have it delivered straight to your inbox each workday at 7am CET. Do inform us what you suppose, we love to listen to from you: europe.categorical@ft.com. Sustain with the newest European tales @FT Europe.

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Paris Olympics lift off with extravagant opening ceremony

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Paris Olympics lift off with extravagant opening ceremony

The Paris Olympics kicked off with an extravagant opening ceremony on Friday night when an armada of boats carried 10,500 athletes along the Seine — the first outdoor version of the spectacle that was expected to be watched by a billion people.

Earlier, a shadow was cast over the event by an act of criminal sabotage that hit France’s high-speed rail network in the early hours of the morning causing nationwide transport chaos. Heavy rain then began to fall about 30 minutes into the three-hour show, a nightmare scenario for the planners of the theatrical performance that featured a massive cast of dancers, two orchestras and a clutch of pop stars, including Lady Gaga doing a cabaret-tinged song.

Before the ceremony, interior minister Gérald Darmanin said: “We are ready for this magnificent event,” adding that no specific threats had been detected. The railway sabotage would “not have direct consequence on the Olympics or the ceremony”. 

Lady Gaga performs the opening number on the riverbank © Sina Schuldt/dpa

By mid-afternoon long queues had formed for ticket holders to get into the highly secured perimeter along the Seine river where 320,000 spectators were expected along the medieval-era cobblestone quays. The format of the event required heavy security: 45,000 police were deployed on the ground and in the air, using helicopters, drones and snipers positioned on roofs. 

The weather also tested the dozens of experienced ship captains powering the parade, who navigated at precisely the right speed to keep the show on line. Some spectators fled the quays for cover as rain poured down.

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President Emmanuel Macron hosted more than 100 heads of state at Trocadero plaza across the river from the Eiffel tower where the athletes disembarked for a final parade and a performance by francophone favourite Céline Dion. Jill Biden, wife of the US president, and other leaders attended a reception at the Elysée palace beforehand. 

Map showing the route of the boat parade along the Seine river for the opening ceremony of the Paris Olympics

The idea for such an ambitious opening was the brainchild of one man, Thierry Reboul, an event specialist known for punchy marketing stunts, but pulling it off it needed more than 15,000 performers, technicians and firework specialists.

The performance featured ballet dancers on the roof of the Louvre, while hundreds of modern dancers and breakdancers performed along the quays and on some of the boats. Performers were clad in handmade outfits stitched by French couturiers, and LVMH’s Louis Vuitton trunk suitcases were prominently displayed in a lengthy segment. Bernard Arnault’s LVMH was an Olympics sponsor.

Organisers had to scale back some elements, such as BMX riders set to do tricks on a ramp because rain made it too slippery.

Floriane Issert, wearing the Flag of the International Olympic Committee (IOC), is seen on a Metal Horse on the River Seine during the opening ceremony © Getty Images

When Reboul pitched the idea for the river ceremony to Tony Estanguet, head of the Paris organising committee, the two-time gold medal winner reacted with stupor that quickly became enthusiasm. “It will be ambitious, audacious and totally crazy,” said Estanguet, recalling the moment. 

Reboul said the idea came to him on a walk along the Seine, the snaking river whose banks were chosen by a Gallic tribe called the Parisii to found a settlement about two thousand years ago. He told himself: “It should be here, of course it should be here, and nowhere else.”

The organisers hired Thomas Jolly, a 42-year-old theatre director known for a musical called Starmania, who started imagining how to convey the spirit of France from literature and culture to history. “I’m used to designing performances on a stage, and this time the entire city was my canvas,” he told reporters earlier this week. 

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Zinedine Zidane, former French football player and manager, hands the Olympic Torch to Spanish tennis player Rafael Nadal © Getty Images

Jolly hired a team he has long worked with — a musical director, choreographer and a costume designer, all renowned in their fields — and also included author Leila Slimani, scriptwriter Fanny Herrero, who created the show Call My Agent!, and others to help him write the 12 tableaux that make up the ceremony.

Before they started writing, they took long walks along the Seine for inspiration and researched the history of its bridges, such as the oldest, Pont Neuf, finished under King Henry IV in 1607, and the Pont d’Austerlitz, commissioned by Napoleon Bonaparte, from which the parade will begin.

“We drew on the past of each site and monuments: almost each stone tells something about our history of France, of the history of Paris, a history which is connected to the world,” he said. 

But Jolly and Estanguet did not want the theatrics to overshadow the athletes, instead putting them at the centre of it by giving them the best spots to view the show — the decks of the boats on the river. 

“The athletes are the heroes of the show,” said Estanguet.

Although officials remained vague about the price, French media reported that the ceremony cost about €120mn, roughly four times that of the opener of the London 2012 Games. The overall cost for the Paris Games, which was pitched as a greener edition because little new infrastructure was built, is expected to reach €9-10bn, according to the national auditor. About one-third of that will be paid for by sponsors.

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Jolly’s show was filled with memorable, kitschy moments: a hooded figure leaping across the zinc roofs of Paris, drag queens dancing to electro, beheaded royals of the French revolution set against heavy metal music, and a silver horse with an armour-clad rider gliding down the Seine.

Céline Dion closes the show with Edith Piaf’s ‘Hymne à l’amour’ © POOL/Olympic Broadcasting Services/AFP via Getty Images

Cheers rose when France’s beloved footballer Zinedine Zidane passed the torch to tennis champion Rafel Nadal.

The spectacle climaxed with an elaborate light show beaming out from the Tour Eiffel before a final flame relay to the Louvre led to a hot air balloon ascending into the night sky bearing a fiery Olympic cauldron.

Framed by the Eiffel tower, Canadian singer Céline Dion, in her first performance in years because of illness and wearing a white, beaded dress featuring 500m of fringe custom made by Dior, belted out Edith Piaf’s Hymne à l’amour.

“I declare the Paris games open,” said Macron.

Additional reporting by Adrienne Klasa

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Sonya Massey killing: Black woman died from gunshot wound to head, confirms autopsy; attorney calls shooting 'senseless' – Times of India

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Sonya Massey killing: Black woman died from gunshot wound to head, confirms autopsy; attorney calls shooting 'senseless' – Times of India
An autopsy released on Friday confirmed that Sonya Massey, a 36-year-old Black woman who was fatally shot by a former sheriff’s deputy, died from a gunshot wound to the head. The full report, made public by Sangamon County Coroner Jim Allmon, supports earlier findings that her death was a homicide.
Civil rights attorney Ben Crump, representing Massey’s family, criticized the shooting as “senseless, unnecessary, and excessive.” Crump highlighted the physical disparity between Massey and the now-fired deputy, Sean Grayson, during a press conference.The autopsy revealed that Massey, who was 5-foot-4 and 112 pounds, was shot just beneath her left eye, with the bullet exiting her lower neck in a downward trajectory.
Grayson, who is white and stands 6-foot-3 and weighs 228 pounds, has pleaded not guilty to charges including first-degree murder and official misconduct. Fired from the Sangamon County Sheriff’s Office last week, he is currently being held without bond.
Crump used an enlarged autopsy diagram to emphasize the physical mismatch between Grayson and Massey, arguing that her position at the time of the shooting—stooped and apologizing—demonstrates the excessive nature of the force used. “When Sonya Massey was staring at the barrel of his gun, she stooped down, said, ‘Sorry, sir, Sorry,’ and the bullet was shot while she was in this stooped position,” Crump said.
Authorities reported that Massey had called 911 to report a suspected prowler. Two deputies responded to her Springfield home, located about 200 miles southwest of Chicago. Video footage confirmed that Grayson, aiming his 9mm pistol at Massey, threatened to shoot her in the face if she did not set down a pot of hot water. He fired three shots.
After the shooting, Grayson reportedly dismissed the need for medical assistance, stating, “She done. You can go get it, but that’s a head shot. There’s nothing you can do, man.” Despite his initial refusal, the second deputy attempted to provide aid until emergency medical professionals arrived.
Massey had a history of mental illness, and her family reported that she had recently entered and briefly exited a 30-day inpatient program in St. Louis. Her son, 17-year-old Malachi Hill Massey, mentioned that police had been called to their home the day before the shooting. Malachi indicated that his mother had sought medical help but returned home without explanation.

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Tech reversal pushes US megacaps into correction territory

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Tech reversal pushes US megacaps into correction territory

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Four of the so-called Magnificent Seven technology stocks that have powered the US market rally for the past nine months ended the week in correction territory, having fallen by more than 10 per cent from recent peaks. 

Another two — Microsoft and Amazon — are close to the double-digit falls that define a correction. Investors are looking ahead to further tech earnings updates next week amid worries about punchy valuations and the risks that returns from vast artificial intelligence-related spending may not live up to early hopes.

Nvidia and Tesla are each down 17 per cent from their recent peaks while Meta and Google parent Alphabet have fallen 14 per cent and 12 per cent. Apple is the best performer in the group, having lost just 7 per cent while Microsoft and Amazon have slid about 9 per cent each.

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On Wednesday Alphabet sparked a wider market sell-off when, despite it reporting solid quarterly operating numbers, its shares fell more than 5 per cent on concerns about AI-related investments. Its $13bn quarterly capital expenditure was almost double the levels of a year ago.

“For a long time investors were really sold on the premise that AI investment in and of itself — spending money — is good,” said Max Gokhman, a senior vice-president at Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions. “What we’re seeing now is . . . investors saying, ‘Hold up a sec, what are the productivity gains here, when do you expect to see them?’”

Alphabet’s fall helped drag the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite to its worst one-day decline in 18 months on Wednesday, down 3.6 per cent. The index ended the week down 2.1 per cent.

Microsoft, Meta, Apple and Amazon earnings next week may set up a fresh test of investor faith in the AI narrative that has been a crucial driver of market gains.

“Expectations are high and valuations for the Mag Seven aren’t cheap. We’re also closer to the point when we see some decelerations in earnings from them as a group — from the beneficiaries of AI in general,” said Josh Nelson, head of US equity at T Rowe Price. 

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Investors this week also showed they were prepared to punish companies that missed expectations, with Tesla losing 12 per cent on Wednesday after slowing sales and its own AI spending shrank profits more than expected. And Ford shares tumbled 18 per cent on Thursday when its profits fell short, hurt by unexpectedly high warranty costs.

On average, companies that missed expectations had seen their shares drop 3.3 per cent in the days surrounding their earnings, according to data from FactSet, more than the five-year average of 2.3 per cent.

Companies that beat expectations saw on average no gains in their share price, FactSet reported.

“The trend of misses getting punished more than beats get rewarded is getting a little bit more significant,” said Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab. “There is uncertainty and skittishness with regard to just how fast the market, driven by those names ran, without the commensurate improvement in their forward earnings prospects.”

Sonders also pointed to the fact that the earnings season under way had coincided with a “rotation” among investors taking profits in the biggest tech names in favour of backing smaller companies that were more likely to see big benefits if the Federal Reserve begins to cut interest rates in September.

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This week, the Russell 2000 index of small-cap stocks added 3.5 per cent while the blue-chip S&P 500 fell 0.8 per cent.

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