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ECB scales back stimulus plan as Ukraine war drives up inflation expectations

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ECB scales back stimulus plan as Ukraine war drives up inflation expectations

The European Central Financial institution has scaled again its bond-buying stimulus plan and mentioned internet purchases might cease within the third quarter if medium-term inflation expectations proceed to be pushed up by the conflict in Ukraine.

“The Russian invasion of Ukraine is a watershed for Europe,” the ECB mentioned in an announcement after the governing council’s assembly in Frankfurt on Thursday, including that it might “take no matter motion is required . . . to pursue worth stability and to safeguard monetary stability”.

Setting out a faster discount in its bond-buying plans this yr, the ECB mentioned it might scale back asset purchases to €40bn in April, €30bn in Could and €20bn in June.

“If the incoming knowledge assist the expectation that the medium-term inflation outlook is not going to weaken even after the top of our internet asset purchases, the governing council will conclude internet purchases below the APP [asset purchase programme] within the third quarter,” it mentioned.

The financial institution added the €1.85tn emergency bond-buying scheme it launched in response to the coronavirus pandemic would cease internet purchases as deliberate on the finish of March. 

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It saved its deposit price at minus 0.5 per cent and mentioned it was “prepared to regulate all devices” in its coverage toolbox, together with charges and asset purchases, to attain its medium-term inflation goal of two per cent.

Analysts interpreted the transfer to hurry up the ECB’s exit from shopping for extra bonds as a sign that it might increase rates of interest within the fourth quarter — which might be the primary such transfer for over a decade.

“In mild of the stagflation threat and excessive uncertainty, this resolution offers the central financial institution most flexibility and retains the choice open for a price hike earlier than year-end,” mentioned Carsten Brzeski, head of macro analysis at ING.

The central financial institution eliminated a reference to a possible price minimize from its steering, making it clearer that the following transfer on charges shall be upwards. Nevertheless it additionally dropped a dedication to finish internet asset purchases “shortly earlier than” it raises rates of interest, giving it extra leeway to cease shopping for bonds with out it which means a price rise is imminent.

“Any changes to the important thing ECB rates of interest will happen a while after the top of the governing council’s internet purchases below the APP and shall be gradual,” it mentioned.

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The assertion, which shall be mentioned by Christine Lagarde, ECB president, at a press convention afterward Thursday, signifies the financial institution has opted to keep up as a lot flexibility as potential whereas responding to the surge in power costs attributable to the Ukraine disaster.

Solely final month, the ECB governing council agreed it might velocity up a “gradual normalisation” of its ultra-loose financial coverage, setting the stage for it to finish all internet bond purchases by the autumn and to lift rates of interest by the top of the yr. 

However the invasion of Ukraine and the sanctions imposed on Russia by the west have prompted economists to slash their eurozone progress forecasts for this yr and to foretell that inflation will surge from the document degree of 5.8 per cent reached in February.

This leaves the ECB in a troublesome place, torn between the will to sort out inflation that’s anticipated to remain effectively above its 2 per cent goal till a minimum of subsequent yr and eager to assist the economic system, which economists concern might endure its third recession in two years.

The central financial institution will publish new financial forecasts afterward Thursday. The essential query shall be whether or not it forecasts inflation at or above 2 per cent for the following two years, which might fulfil a key situation for it to lift rates of interest for the primary time in a decade.

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The euro, which had fallen forward of the ECB announcement, rebounded, buying and selling 0.3 per cent greater at $1.111 in opposition to the US greenback.

Buyers responded to the prospect of an earlier finish to ECB asset purchases by promoting eurozone bonds, pushing Germany’s 10-year yield to 0.27 per cent, the best in additional than three weeks. Riskier eurozone debt was hit tougher, with Italian 10-year yields climbing 0.2 proportion factors to 1.88 per cent.

“A quicker winding down of the asset buy programme will maybe come as a shock to market contributors who anticipated an ECB capitulation within the face of weaker progress forecasts,” mentioned Seema Shah, chief strategist at Principal International Buyers.

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Coldest air so far this season expected overnight in North Texas

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Coldest air so far this season expected overnight in North Texas
Coldest air so far this season expected overnight in North Texas – CBS Texas

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The National Weather Service has issued a Cold Weather Advisory that will stay in effect until 10 a.m. Monday. Be sure to bundle up.

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New Orleans Attacker Visited City Twice and Made Trips to Egypt and Canada

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New Orleans Attacker Visited City Twice and Made Trips to Egypt and Canada

Months before the man behind the New Orleans terror attack plowed a truck into a New Year’s Day crowd, he rode through the area on a bicycle, recording videos of his target using eyeglasses with a built-in camera, investigators said on Sunday. He was back again a few weeks later, they said, probably to continue his plotting.

Those details emerged as investigators revealed more about the driver and the extensive planning behind the attack, which killed 14 people, injured many others and left New Orleans starting 2025 grappling with a cascade of anguish and alarm.

Investigators have been pushing to piece together a clear timeline of the attacker’s actions. The investigation has entailed establishing a beat-by-beat accounting of his movements in the hours immediately before the attack, which included loading guns in his rented pickup truck and planting explosive devices in coolers near the site of the attack, Bourbon Street in the city’s French Quarter.

A far more sprawling search is looking back years to try to understand how a 42-year-old Army veteran with a lucrative job at an international accounting firm came to be radicalized, claiming alignment with the Islamic State terrorist group, better known as ISIS.

Investigators found that the attacker, Shamsud-Din Jabbar, had made trips to Egypt and Canada in 2023. But they said on Sunday that they had yet to determine what role, if any, those travels might have played in his evolving beliefs or his planning for the New Orleans attack.

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“Our agents are getting answers as to where he went, who he met with and how those trips may or may not tie into his actions here in our city,” Lyonel Myrthil, the special agent in charge for the F.B.I. in New Orleans, said at a news conference.

New Orleans has been immersed in grief since the attack, but also marching forward, reopening Bourbon Street to the public and preparing to host the Super Bowl next month, as well as the season of celebration that precedes Mardi Gras. A crowd gathered on Bourbon Street on Saturday evening for a vigil that included a traditional second line. President Biden is scheduled to visit New Orleans on Monday.

”I believe only the power of prayer and faith in God can pull them and us through this time,” Gov. Jeff Landry, Republican of Louisiana, said on Sunday, referring to the pain the families of the victims and the community as a whole were navigating.

The attack ended when Mr. Jabbar, was killed in a shootout with the police that left two officers wounded. Officials praised the police for a swift response that they credited with sparing the city from more carnage.

Mr. Jabbar expressed allegiance to ISIS after a transformation that perplexed and troubled those who knew him. He had the group’s flag on the rented Ford F-150 pickup truck that he used in the attack. In a video that he recorded for his family, he said, “I wanted you to know that I joined ISIS earlier this year.”

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Officials said on Sunday that they continue to believe Mr. Jabbar acted alone in carrying out the attack, and that they were still trying to determine whether he had deeper ties to ISIS. It remained unclear why he chose New Orleans as his target, officials said.

Christopher Raia, an F.B.I. counterterrorism official, said that individuals like Mr. Jabbar — who typically are radicalized online, use easily accessible weapons and act alone or in small clusters — were perhaps the “greatest terror threat” the country faces.

“They are difficult to identify, investigate and disrupt,” he said at the news conference on Sunday.

Investigators were also trying to find out where Mr. Jabbar went and what he did when he visited New Orleans in November, the second pre-attack visit that officials are aware of. The first visit, when he recorded the video images from a bicycle, took place in October.

Investigators discovered that he had left two improvised explosive devices in coolers at nearby locations shortly before ramming his truck into the Bourbon Street crowd early on New Year’s morning. They said he appeared to have had limited experience in building and using explosives, and the devices he created were crude, but they believed some of them could have been effective.

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Mr. Jabbar had a transmitter in the rented pickup. “We believe that the transmitter would have functioned,” Mr. Myrthil said.

One of the coolers had been moved from where Mr. Jabbar had placed it, officials said, but the people who moved it were “unknowing Bourbon Street visitors” who had no connection to Mr. Jabbar.

Both devices were deactivated by the authorities shortly after the ramming attack.

Investigators said Mr. Jabbar had rented the pickup weeks before the attack, and drove it to New Orleans from his home in Texas, arriving on the afternoon of Dec. 31. Investigators found bomb-making materials at a residence he had rented in New Orleans, where he had set a fire just before setting off for the French Quarter. Officials said the fire burned itself out within a few hours and was already extinguished by the time firefighters arrived at the home.

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Joe Biden prepares to bow out

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Joe Biden prepares to bow out

This article is an on-site version of our The Week Ahead newsletter. Subscribers can sign up here to get the newsletter delivered every Sunday. Explore all of our newsletters here

Hello and welcome to the working week.

On Monday, the US Congress will preside over the electoral college vote count, which will certify Donald Trump’s election victory. Although this is typically no more than a small formality, the last occurrence four years ago was tarnished by the attack on the US Capitol building.

The Biden administration’s days are numbered. The FT’s Washington team will be keeping a close eye on any last-minute initiatives from the White House over the coming days, especially on Ukraine and the climate, as the outgoing president looks to consolidate his legacy.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken will meet South Korean foreign minister Cho Tae-yul on Monday, the first high-level diplomatic talks since President Yoon Suk Yeol’s impeachment. (Last week’s Lunch with the FT is an illuminating guide to Blinken’s foreign policy thinking.) Over the coming days, South Korea’s main opposition, the Democratic party, plans to summon Yoon to a parliamentary hearing and appoint special counsels to investigate his failed bid to impose martial law.

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On Friday, Trump is set to appear for sentencing in the New York “hush money” criminal case. Justice Juan Merchan, who has presided over the trial, signalled in last week’s order that the president-elect could attend the hearing virtually and would not face jail time over the conviction.

That same day, the US Supreme Court will hear arguments on a law that would outlaw TikTok in the country if it is not sold to an American company. The ban is set to come into effect on January 19, a day before Trump’s inauguration. However, the president-elect has urged the court to delay the ban, saying he would prefer “to pursue a political resolution” instead.

Venezuela’s President Nicolás Maduro is set to be sworn in for a third term following his disputed election victory in July. Since the vote, Maduro has clamped down on his political opponents. Dozens of human rights campaigners and journalists have had their passports cancelled and opposition leader Edmundo González has sought political asylum in Spain. Expect a tightly choreographed show of power as his government remains on high alert.

There are a raft of trading updates from UK retailers this week, including Tesco, Sainsbury’s and Marks and Spencer. Anticipate analysis on what the reports reveal about consumer strength this Christmas season. Moreover, analysts will study the reports for clues on which supermarkets will be able to withstand the headwinds from the Labour party’s Budget in 2025, as increased employers’ national insurance contributions squeeze grocers’ margins.

One more thing . . . 

It’s a big week for film and TV. Movie buffs can binge-watch the Critics Choice Awards, the National Board of Review gala, the AARP awards and the Golden Globes over the coming days. I won’t be joining them. I haven’t watched much of anything this year. And shamefully, I missed all 10 of our film critic’s best films of 2024.

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What must-see film of the last 12 months did I miss? Let me know at harvey.nriapia@ft.com.

Key economic and company reports

Here is a more complete list of what to expect in terms of company reports and economic data this week.

Monday

Tuesday

Wednesday

Thursday

  • Greggs Q4 trading update, B&M Q3 trading statement, Marks and Spencer Christmas trading update, Tesco Q3 and Christmas trading statement

  • Peru interest rate

  • Bank of Mexico monetary policy minutes

Friday

World events

Finally, here is a rundown of other events and milestones this week.

Monday

  • US Congress meets to certify Trump’s election

  • Antony Blinken to meet South Korean Foreign Minister Cho Tae-yul

  • Golden Globe Awards

  • Malaysia’s court of appeal to hear jailed former prime minister Najib Razak’s bid for house arrest

  • Epiphany

Tuesday

Friday

  • US Supreme Court to hear arguments on a law that would ban TikTok if it is not sold to an American company

  • Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro to be sworn in for a third term following his disputed election victory

  • President Joe Biden to meet Pope Francis and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni in Rome

  • Donald Trump to be sentenced in ‘hush money’ trial

Saturday

Sunday

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