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Democrats Say the Joy Is Back. Here’s What the Data Says.

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Democrats Say the Joy Is Back. Here’s What the Data Says.

Kamala Harris’s campaign has been trying to get voters to feel the joy. Speakers at the Democratic National Convention used the word “joy” dozens of times, including when Bill Clinton hailed Ms. Harris as “the president of joy.”

But how do voters really feel? Does the data back up the vibes?

Polls have registered a jolt of newfound happiness about the election. In July, in the week after President Biden’s decision to forgo the nomination, a New York Times/Siena College survey found that anger and resignation had been subsiding among voters of both parties, while joy had jumped.

Since then, that happiness has apparently deepened, among Democrats in particular. Times/Siena swing state polls in August found that nearly 80 percent of Democrats said they were satisfied with their choice of candidates, a stark shift from May, when just 55 percent said they were.

In general, how satisfied are you with your choice of candidates in this fall’s presidential election?

Among registered voters across six swing states

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Based on New York Times/Siena College polls of registered voters in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Note: “Satisfied” includes the responses “somewhat satisfied” and “very satisfied,” and “not satisfied” includes the responses “not too satisfied” and “not at all satisfied.”

But the post-dropout Times/Siena national poll also found that voters’ primary emotion surrounding the election was anxiety, which was reported by nearly half of Democrats.

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There are many reasons anxiety might persist. Though Ms. Harris’s poll numbers are better than Mr. Biden’s, the race still sits on a knife’s edge. Whether her upswing can continue beyond the probable post-convention bump is still to be seen.

Examining the words voters most frequently used to describe their emotions about the election provides us with a window into just how much the mood has swung, and how it could continue to shift.

Words Democrats most frequently used to describe their feelings about the election

Circle sizes are based on the share of Democrats who responded with each word

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Certain corners of social media are now awash in coconut tree emojis and shaded green squares declaring this Ms. Harris’s “Brat summer.” Democrats’ joy doubled between February and July, with 20 percent of the party’s voters using words indicating happiness, hope or excitement to describe their feelings about the election after Mr. Biden had dropped out, while Democratic despair more than halved.

Ms. Harris has referred to herself and her running mate, Gov. Tim Walz of Minnesota, as “joyful warriors,” and Mr. Walz, in his first speech as the vice-presidential pick, thanked her for “bringing back the joy.”

“The vibe is very high, no doubt about it,” said Nancy Rohr, 68, a retired piano teacher from Orange County, Calif., who used the word “excited” to describe her feelings about November. “I would say it’s her energy; she’s a joyful, energetic person.”

“It just feels really exciting to turn the corner,” she added.

In February, Democrats’ feelings had been dominated by fear and sadness.

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Over this whirlwind summer, they have grappled with the duality of joy and fear. The July poll was taken the week after Mr. Biden dropped out of the race; though support quickly coalesced around Ms. Harris, she had not yet officially clinched the nomination. Not only did Democrats use more words indicating joy and hope about the election, they also used words indicating feelings of anxiety and apprehension.

Over the past few weeks, the Harris campaign has tried to put those fears to rest.

Still, anxiety persists. “I’m just more concerned that if one party loses, we’re not even going to have a peaceful transition of power,” said Jeff Fitzsimmons, 42, a manager of a livestock operation from Norman County, Minn., who described his election-related feelings as “nervous.”

Words Republicans most frequently used to describe their feelings about the election

Circle sizes are based on the share of Republicans who responded with each word

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Democrats hardly have a monopoly on joy, even as former President Donald J. Trump has adopted a darker tone during recent weeks, warning of “bad things” to come if Ms. Harris wins.

From February to July, feelings of anger and confusion subsided among Republicans. By summer, nearly three in 10 Republican voters used words indicating happiness, hope or excitement to describe their feelings about the election, rivaling the share who expressed fear or apprehension, which had remained virtually unchanged since February.

The Grand Old Party partied with its own set of stars this summer. “Let’s make America rock again,” Mr. Trump said in a video shown at a summer music festival headlined by Kid Rock.

“I’m excited to have a change,” said Stephanie Rhodes, 61, a Trump supporter from Silverhill, Ala., who runs a small cafe, who used the word “excited” to express her feelings about November. “I’m a small business owner, and the Biden administration has really hurt my business.”

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The poll was conducted soon after the attempted Trump assassination and the Republican National Convention, accounting perhaps for some of the increased exuberance among Republicans. Trump supporters saw their candidate emerge from the attempt on his life with a raised fist, a mark of defiance reminiscent of heroes in ancient art.

Still, more than 25 percent of Republicans in July used words like “scared” or “nervous” to describe their feelings about the election.

Joel Daria, 43, an insurance agent from Dublin, Ohio, used the word “nervous,” saying he worried about the future for his daughters under a Harris administration.

“I don’t want them to think that if they get married, they’re a weak woman,” said Mr. Daria. “I don’t want them to be in a world where they can’t own guns if they want to. I don’t want them to be in a world where they have to go to the bathroom with other people that identify as women.”

In the frantic months between now and November, it’s quite likely that voters’ emotions will continue to fluctuate, particularly as the contest gears up after Labor Day.

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“There is such a heightened level of attention to this race — it really raises the stakes,” said Carroll Doherty, director of political research at Pew Research Center. “Any slip-ups or hiccups are more magnified and can lead to bigger magnitude changes in public mood.”

Sources and notes

In the bubble charts of words most frequently used, the February data is from a New York Times/Siena College poll of 980 registered voters nationwide conducted Feb. 25 to 28. The July data is from a New York Times/Siena College poll of 1,142 registered voters nationwide conducted July 22 to 24.

Statistics cited for Democrats and Republicans include voters who identified with or leaned toward each party in the Times/Siena polls.

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Map: Earthquake Shakes Central California

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Map: Earthquake Shakes Central California

Note: Map shows the area with a shake intensity of 3 or greater, which U.S.G.S. defines as “weak,” though the earthquake may be felt outside the areas shown.  All times on the map are Pacific time. The New York Times

A minor earthquake with a preliminary magnitude of 3.5 struck in Central California on Monday, according to the United States Geological Survey.

The temblor happened at 7:17 a.m. Pacific time about 6 miles northwest of Pinnacles, Calif., data from the agency shows.

As seismologists review available data, they may revise the earthquake’s reported magnitude. Additional information collected about the earthquake may also prompt U.S.G.S. scientists to update the shake-severity map.

Source: United States Geological Survey | Notes: Shaking categories are based on the Modified Mercalli Intensity scale. When aftershock data is available, the corresponding maps and charts include earthquakes within 100 miles and seven days of the initial quake. All times above are Pacific time. Shake data is as of Monday, March 2 at 10:20 a.m. Eastern. Aftershocks data is as of Monday, March 2 at 11:18 a.m. Eastern.

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US says Kuwait accidentally shot down 3 American jets

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US says Kuwait accidentally shot down 3 American jets

The U.S. and Israel have been conducting strikes against targets in Iran since Saturday morning, with the aim of toppling Tehran’s clerical regime. Iran has fired back, with retaliatory assaults featuring missiles and drones targeting several Gulf countries and American bases in the Middle East.

“All six aircrew ejected safely, have been safely recovered, and are in stable condition. Kuwait has acknowledged this incident, and we are grateful for the efforts of the Kuwaiti defense forces and their support in this ongoing operation,” Central Command said.

“The cause of the incident is under investigation. Additional information will be released as it becomes available,” it added.

In a separate statement later Monday, Central Command said that American forces had been killed during combat since the strikes began.

“As of 7:30 am ET, March 2, four U.S. service members have been killed in action. The fourth service member, who was seriously wounded during Iran’s initial attacks, eventually succumbed to their injuries,” it said.

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Major combat operations continue and our response effort is ongoing. The identities of the fallen are being withheld until 24 hours after next of kin notification,” Central Command added.

This story has been updated.

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Satellite images provide view inside Iran at war

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Satellite images provide view inside Iran at war

Smoke rises over Konarak naval base in southern Iran on Sunday. The base was one of hundreds of targets of U.S. and Israeli forces throughout the country.

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Commercial satellite images are providing a unique look at the extent of damage being done to Iran’s military facilities across the country.

The U.S. and Israeli military campaign opened with a daytime attack that struck Iranian leadership in central Tehran. Smoke was still visible rising from Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s compound following the attack that killed the supreme leader.

An image by the company Airbus taken on Saturday shows the aftermath of an Israeli strike on Iran's Leadership House in central Tehran. Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in the opening wave of attacks.

An image by the company Airbus taken on Saturday shows the aftermath of an Israeli strike on Iran’s Leadership House in central Tehran. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in the opening wave of attacks.

Pléiades Neo (c) Airbus DS 2026

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Israel and the U.S. have gone on to strike targets across the country. Reports on social media indicate that there have been numerous military bases and compounds attacked all over Iran, and Iran has responded with attacks throughout the Middle East.

U.S. forces have also been striking at Iran’s navy. In a post on his social media platform, President Trump said that he had been briefed that U.S. forces had sunk nine Iranian naval vessels. U.S. Central Command did not immediately confirm that number but it did say it had struck an Iranian warship in port.

An image captured on February 28 shows a ship burning at Iran's naval base at Konarak.

An image captured on Saturday shows a ship burning at Iran’s naval base at Konarak.

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Numerous satellite images show burning vessels at Konarak naval base in southern Iran. Images also show damage to a nearby airbase where hardened hangers were struck by precision munitions.

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Hardened aircraft shelters at Konarak Airbase were struck with precision munitions.

Hardened aircraft shelters at Konarak airbase were struck with precision munitions.

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And there was extensive damage at a drone base in the same area. Iran has launched numerous drones and missiles toward Israel and U.S. military installations in Bahrain, Kuwait and Qatar. Many drones have been intercepted but videos on social media show that some have evaded air defenses and caused damage in nearby Gulf countries. In Dubai, debris from an Iranian drone damaged the iconic Burj Al Arab, according to a statement from Dubai’s government.

Buildings at an Iranian drone base at Konarak were destroyed in the strikes.

Buildings at an Iranian drone base at Konarak were destroyed in the strikes.

Satellite image ©2026 Vantor


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Iran’s most powerful weapons are its long-range missiles. The Iranian Revolutionary Guards have hidden the missiles deep inside mountain tunnels. Images taken Sunday in the mountains of northern Iran indicate that some of those tunnels were hit in a wave of strikes.

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Following Khamenei’s death, Iran declared 40 days of mourning. Satellite images showed mourners gathering in Tehran’s Enghelab square on Sunday.

Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Esmail Baghaei told NPR on Sunday that Iran will continue to fight “foreign aggression, foreign domination.”

A White House official told NPR that Trump plans to talk to Iran’s interim leadership “eventually,” but that for now, U.S. operations continue in the region “unabated.”

A large crowd of mourners fill Enghelab Square in Tehran on Sunday, following the death of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed in an Israeli airstrike.

A large crowd of mourners fill Enghelab Square in Tehran on Sunday, following the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed in an Israeli airstrike.

Satellite image ©2026 Vantor


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