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Democrats Say the Joy Is Back. Here’s What the Data Says.
Kamala Harris’s campaign has been trying to get voters to feel the joy. Speakers at the Democratic National Convention used the word “joy” dozens of times, including when Bill Clinton hailed Ms. Harris as “the president of joy.”
But how do voters really feel? Does the data back up the vibes?
Polls have registered a jolt of newfound happiness about the election. In July, in the week after President Biden’s decision to forgo the nomination, a New York Times/Siena College survey found that anger and resignation had been subsiding among voters of both parties, while joy had jumped.
Since then, that happiness has apparently deepened, among Democrats in particular. Times/Siena swing state polls in August found that nearly 80 percent of Democrats said they were satisfied with their choice of candidates, a stark shift from May, when just 55 percent said they were.
Among registered voters across six swing states Based on New York Times/Siena College polls of registered voters in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Note: “Satisfied” includes the responses “somewhat satisfied” and “very satisfied,” and “not satisfied” includes the responses “not too satisfied” and “not at all satisfied.”
In general, how satisfied are you with your choice of candidates in this fall’s presidential election?
But the post-dropout Times/Siena national poll also found that voters’ primary emotion surrounding the election was anxiety, which was reported by nearly half of Democrats.
There are many reasons anxiety might persist. Though Ms. Harris’s poll numbers are better than Mr. Biden’s, the race still sits on a knife’s edge. Whether her upswing can continue beyond the probable post-convention bump is still to be seen.
Examining the words voters most frequently used to describe their emotions about the election provides us with a window into just how much the mood has swung, and how it could continue to shift.
Words Democrats most frequently used to describe their feelings about the election
Circle sizes are based on the share of Democrats who responded with each word
Certain corners of social media are now awash in coconut tree emojis and shaded green squares declaring this Ms. Harris’s “Brat summer.” Democrats’ joy doubled between February and July, with 20 percent of the party’s voters using words indicating happiness, hope or excitement to describe their feelings about the election after Mr. Biden had dropped out, while Democratic despair more than halved.
Ms. Harris has referred to herself and her running mate, Gov. Tim Walz of Minnesota, as “joyful warriors,” and Mr. Walz, in his first speech as the vice-presidential pick, thanked her for “bringing back the joy.”
“The vibe is very high, no doubt about it,” said Nancy Rohr, 68, a retired piano teacher from Orange County, Calif., who used the word “excited” to describe her feelings about November. “I would say it’s her energy; she’s a joyful, energetic person.”
“It just feels really exciting to turn the corner,” she added.
In February, Democrats’ feelings had been dominated by fear and sadness.
Over this whirlwind summer, they have grappled with the duality of joy and fear. The July poll was taken the week after Mr. Biden dropped out of the race; though support quickly coalesced around Ms. Harris, she had not yet officially clinched the nomination. Not only did Democrats use more words indicating joy and hope about the election, they also used words indicating feelings of anxiety and apprehension.
Over the past few weeks, the Harris campaign has tried to put those fears to rest.
Still, anxiety persists. “I’m just more concerned that if one party loses, we’re not even going to have a peaceful transition of power,” said Jeff Fitzsimmons, 42, a manager of a livestock operation from Norman County, Minn., who described his election-related feelings as “nervous.”
Words Republicans most frequently used to describe their feelings about the election
Circle sizes are based on the share of Republicans who responded with each word
Democrats hardly have a monopoly on joy, even as former President Donald J. Trump has adopted a darker tone during recent weeks, warning of “bad things” to come if Ms. Harris wins.
From February to July, feelings of anger and confusion subsided among Republicans. By summer, nearly three in 10 Republican voters used words indicating happiness, hope or excitement to describe their feelings about the election, rivaling the share who expressed fear or apprehension, which had remained virtually unchanged since February.
The Grand Old Party partied with its own set of stars this summer. “Let’s make America rock again,” Mr. Trump said in a video shown at a summer music festival headlined by Kid Rock.
“I’m excited to have a change,” said Stephanie Rhodes, 61, a Trump supporter from Silverhill, Ala., who runs a small cafe, who used the word “excited” to express her feelings about November. “I’m a small business owner, and the Biden administration has really hurt my business.”
The poll was conducted soon after the attempted Trump assassination and the Republican National Convention, accounting perhaps for some of the increased exuberance among Republicans. Trump supporters saw their candidate emerge from the attempt on his life with a raised fist, a mark of defiance reminiscent of heroes in ancient art.
Still, more than 25 percent of Republicans in July used words like “scared” or “nervous” to describe their feelings about the election.
Joel Daria, 43, an insurance agent from Dublin, Ohio, used the word “nervous,” saying he worried about the future for his daughters under a Harris administration.
“I don’t want them to think that if they get married, they’re a weak woman,” said Mr. Daria. “I don’t want them to be in a world where they can’t own guns if they want to. I don’t want them to be in a world where they have to go to the bathroom with other people that identify as women.”
In the frantic months between now and November, it’s quite likely that voters’ emotions will continue to fluctuate, particularly as the contest gears up after Labor Day.
“There is such a heightened level of attention to this race — it really raises the stakes,” said Carroll Doherty, director of political research at Pew Research Center. “Any slip-ups or hiccups are more magnified and can lead to bigger magnitude changes in public mood.”
Sources and notes
In the bubble charts of words most frequently used, the February data is from a New York Times/Siena College poll of 980 registered voters nationwide conducted Feb. 25 to 28. The July data is from a New York Times/Siena College poll of 1,142 registered voters nationwide conducted July 22 to 24.
Statistics cited for Democrats and Republicans include voters who identified with or leaned toward each party in the Times/Siena polls.
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Under Trump, Green Card Seekers Face New Scrutiny for Views on Israel
For decades, immigrants who have followed the rules and have not broken the law have had hopes of earning a green card, a document that allows them to live legally in the United States and gain a path to citizenship.
But under new guidance issued by the Trump administration, immigrants can now be denied a green card for expressing political opinions, such as participating in pro-Palestinian campus protests, posting criticism of Israel on social media and desecrating the American flag, according to internal Department of Homeland Security training materials reviewed by The New York Times.
The documents, which have not been previously reported, show how expansively the Trump administration is carrying out a directive from last August to vet green card applicants for “anti-American” and “antisemitic” views.
The administration includes criticism of Israel as a potentially disqualifying factor, with the training materials citing as an example of questionable speech a social media post that declares, “Stop Israeli Terror in Palestine” and shows the Israeli flag crossed out.
The materials were distributed last month to immigration officers at U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services, which is part of the Department of Homeland Security and handles applications for green cards and other forms of legal status.
They reflect how U.S.C.I.S. — long considered the gateway agency for legal migration — has rapidly transformed under President Trump into another cog in his administration’s deportation machine. The agency has worked to strip naturalized Americans of their citizenship and has hired armed federal agents to investigate immigration crimes.
The administration is also granting permanent legal residency to far fewer applicants. Green card approvals have fallen by more than half in recent months, according to a Times analysis of agency data.
“There is no room in America for aliens who espouse anti-American ideologies or support terrorist organizations,” Joseph Edlow, the agency’s director, told Congress in February.
Critics of Mr. Trump’s approach say the administration is seeking to restrict legitimate political speech, and has conflated opposition to Israeli government policies with antisemitism.
Basing green card decisions on “ideological screenings is fundamentally un-American and should have no place in a country built on the promise of free expression,” said Amanda Baran, a senior agency official under President Joseph R. Biden Jr.
Administration officials said they were defending American values.
“If you hate America, you have no business demanding to live in America,” said Zach Kahler, a spokesman for U.S.C.I.S.
Abigail Jackson, a White House spokeswoman, said the administration’s policies had “nothing to do with free speech” and were meant to protect “American institutions, the safety of citizens, national security and the freedoms of the United States.”
The administration has moved aggressively against immigrants for expressing political views that officials have deemed anti-American, making ideology a central part of its immigration vetting process. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has revoked the visas of pro-Palestinian student activists, including one who wrote a column criticizing her university’s response to pro-Palestinian demands.
The Department of Homeland Security has proposed reviewing the social media histories of tourists seeking to visit the United States.
Immigration officers have significant discretion in deciding whether to grant foreigners long-term permanent residence. They have long considered a variety of factors, including criminal records, national security threats, family ties to the United States and employment histories.
Ideology has also traditionally been one of those factors. In some cases, U.S. law forbids officers from granting green cards to people who have belonged to a Communist or other “totalitarian” political party, have promoted anarchy or have called for the overthrow of the U.S. government by “force or violence or other unconstitutional means.”
But in the past, immigration officers have focused on statements that could incite or encourage violence, given concerns about infringing on constitutionally protected speech, former U.S.C.I.S. officials said.
The new training materials reviewed by The Times guide immigration officers through the factors they should consider when ruling on green card applications. They discourage officers from granting green cards to people with a history of “endorsing, promoting or supporting anti-American views” or “antisemitic terrorism, ideologies or groups.”
Immigration officers have been told to weigh those factors as “overwhelmingly negative.”
The documents list support for “subversive” ideologies as among other factors that could lead to an application being rejected. As an example, the materials point to someone “holding a sign advocating overthrow of the U.S. government.”
In addition, the guidance describes the desecration of the American flag as a negative factor, citing Mr. Trump’s executive order last year directing the Justice Department to prosecute protesters who burn the flag. The Supreme Court has ruled that flag burning is a form of political expression protected by the First Amendment.
Immigration officers have also been told to scrutinize applicants who encourage antisemitism “through rhetorical or physical actions.” They were instructed to “focus particularly on aliens who engaged in on-campus anti-American and antisemitic activities” after the Hamas attacks against Israel in 2023, the documents show.
Further examples in the documents of conduct characterized as antisemitic include a social media post showing a map of Israel with the nation’s name crossed out and replaced with the word “Palestine.” Another illustrative post suggests that Israelis should “taste what people in Gaza are tasting.”
Immigration officers must elevate all cases involving “potential anti-American and/or antisemitic conduct or ideology” to their managers and to the agency’s general counsel’s office for review, according to the documents.
In recent months, the agency has also changed the way it refers to the employees who adjudicate green card applications, long known as “immigration services officers.” In job postings, it now calls them “homeland defenders.”
“Protect your homeland and defend your culture,” one posting says.
Steven Rich contributed reporting.
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America’s bid for energy supremacy is being forged in war
Additional work by Jana Tauschinski
Oil and gas tanker location and destination data are from Kpler. The map shows the latest position for vessels with an active AIS signal on April 19–20, filtered by minimum capacity thresholds: crude tankers of at least 50,000 deadweight tonnage (DWT); oil product tankers of at least 55,000 DWT; oil/chemical tankers of at least 40,000 DWT; LNG carriers of at least 150,000 cubic metres; and LPG carriers of at least 50,000 cubic metres. Net fossil fuel import data by country are based on Ember analysis of the IEA World Energy Balances 2023.
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Roommate faces murder charges in deaths of 2 University of South Florida doctoral students
A 26-year-old man is facing two counts of first-degree murder in the deaths of two University of South Florida doctoral students who went missing last week, local authorities said Saturday.
The Hillsborough County Sheriff’s Office in Florida said that evidence presented to the state attorney’s office resulted in the charges against Hisham Abugharbieh, the roommate of Zamil Limon, one of the doctoral students.
Abugharbieh is accused of premediated murder with a weapon. He was arrested on Friday, the same day Limon was found dead.
The family of Nahida Bristy, the other doctoral student, told CBS News that police said she is also likely dead. That is based on the volume of blood discovered at Abugharbieh’s residence, which he shared with Limon.
“Police told us she is no longer with us,” Bristy’s brother, Zahid Prato, said early Saturday.
The family was told her body may never be found and police believe she may have been dismembered, according to Prato.
CBS News has reached out to police for more information.
Authorities said in a statement Saturday they were still searching for Bristy.
Limon’s remains were found on the Howard Franklin Bridge in Tampa Friday morning, Chief Deputy Joseph Maurer with the Hillsborough County Sheriff’s Office said. His cause of death was pending autopsy results.
Deputies with the sheriff’s office took Abugharbieh into custody on Friday after responding to a domestic violence call at a home in the Lake Forest Community, a neighborhood near USF’s Tampa campus, officials said. He also faces charges of domestic violence and evidence tampering, as well as a charge of failing to report a death to law enforcement.
Limon and Bristy, both 27, had last been seen in the Tampa area on April 16.
Limon was studying the use of AI in environmental science and was set to present his doctoral thesis this week, his family said. Bristy is studying chemical engineering.
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