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Democrats Say the Joy Is Back. Here’s What the Data Says.

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Democrats Say the Joy Is Back. Here’s What the Data Says.

Kamala Harris’s campaign has been trying to get voters to feel the joy. Speakers at the Democratic National Convention used the word “joy” dozens of times, including when Bill Clinton hailed Ms. Harris as “the president of joy.”

But how do voters really feel? Does the data back up the vibes?

Polls have registered a jolt of newfound happiness about the election. In July, in the week after President Biden’s decision to forgo the nomination, a New York Times/Siena College survey found that anger and resignation had been subsiding among voters of both parties, while joy had jumped.

Since then, that happiness has apparently deepened, among Democrats in particular. Times/Siena swing state polls in August found that nearly 80 percent of Democrats said they were satisfied with their choice of candidates, a stark shift from May, when just 55 percent said they were.

In general, how satisfied are you with your choice of candidates in this fall’s presidential election?

Among registered voters across six swing states

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Based on New York Times/Siena College polls of registered voters in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Note: “Satisfied” includes the responses “somewhat satisfied” and “very satisfied,” and “not satisfied” includes the responses “not too satisfied” and “not at all satisfied.”

But the post-dropout Times/Siena national poll also found that voters’ primary emotion surrounding the election was anxiety, which was reported by nearly half of Democrats.

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There are many reasons anxiety might persist. Though Ms. Harris’s poll numbers are better than Mr. Biden’s, the race still sits on a knife’s edge. Whether her upswing can continue beyond the probable post-convention bump is still to be seen.

Examining the words voters most frequently used to describe their emotions about the election provides us with a window into just how much the mood has swung, and how it could continue to shift.

Words Democrats most frequently used to describe their feelings about the election

Circle sizes are based on the share of Democrats who responded with each word

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Certain corners of social media are now awash in coconut tree emojis and shaded green squares declaring this Ms. Harris’s “Brat summer.” Democrats’ joy doubled between February and July, with 20 percent of the party’s voters using words indicating happiness, hope or excitement to describe their feelings about the election after Mr. Biden had dropped out, while Democratic despair more than halved.

Ms. Harris has referred to herself and her running mate, Gov. Tim Walz of Minnesota, as “joyful warriors,” and Mr. Walz, in his first speech as the vice-presidential pick, thanked her for “bringing back the joy.”

“The vibe is very high, no doubt about it,” said Nancy Rohr, 68, a retired piano teacher from Orange County, Calif., who used the word “excited” to describe her feelings about November. “I would say it’s her energy; she’s a joyful, energetic person.”

“It just feels really exciting to turn the corner,” she added.

In February, Democrats’ feelings had been dominated by fear and sadness.

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Over this whirlwind summer, they have grappled with the duality of joy and fear. The July poll was taken the week after Mr. Biden dropped out of the race; though support quickly coalesced around Ms. Harris, she had not yet officially clinched the nomination. Not only did Democrats use more words indicating joy and hope about the election, they also used words indicating feelings of anxiety and apprehension.

Over the past few weeks, the Harris campaign has tried to put those fears to rest.

Still, anxiety persists. “I’m just more concerned that if one party loses, we’re not even going to have a peaceful transition of power,” said Jeff Fitzsimmons, 42, a manager of a livestock operation from Norman County, Minn., who described his election-related feelings as “nervous.”

Words Republicans most frequently used to describe their feelings about the election

Circle sizes are based on the share of Republicans who responded with each word

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Democrats hardly have a monopoly on joy, even as former President Donald J. Trump has adopted a darker tone during recent weeks, warning of “bad things” to come if Ms. Harris wins.

From February to July, feelings of anger and confusion subsided among Republicans. By summer, nearly three in 10 Republican voters used words indicating happiness, hope or excitement to describe their feelings about the election, rivaling the share who expressed fear or apprehension, which had remained virtually unchanged since February.

The Grand Old Party partied with its own set of stars this summer. “Let’s make America rock again,” Mr. Trump said in a video shown at a summer music festival headlined by Kid Rock.

“I’m excited to have a change,” said Stephanie Rhodes, 61, a Trump supporter from Silverhill, Ala., who runs a small cafe, who used the word “excited” to express her feelings about November. “I’m a small business owner, and the Biden administration has really hurt my business.”

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The poll was conducted soon after the attempted Trump assassination and the Republican National Convention, accounting perhaps for some of the increased exuberance among Republicans. Trump supporters saw their candidate emerge from the attempt on his life with a raised fist, a mark of defiance reminiscent of heroes in ancient art.

Still, more than 25 percent of Republicans in July used words like “scared” or “nervous” to describe their feelings about the election.

Joel Daria, 43, an insurance agent from Dublin, Ohio, used the word “nervous,” saying he worried about the future for his daughters under a Harris administration.

“I don’t want them to think that if they get married, they’re a weak woman,” said Mr. Daria. “I don’t want them to be in a world where they can’t own guns if they want to. I don’t want them to be in a world where they have to go to the bathroom with other people that identify as women.”

In the frantic months between now and November, it’s quite likely that voters’ emotions will continue to fluctuate, particularly as the contest gears up after Labor Day.

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“There is such a heightened level of attention to this race — it really raises the stakes,” said Carroll Doherty, director of political research at Pew Research Center. “Any slip-ups or hiccups are more magnified and can lead to bigger magnitude changes in public mood.”

Sources and notes

In the bubble charts of words most frequently used, the February data is from a New York Times/Siena College poll of 980 registered voters nationwide conducted Feb. 25 to 28. The July data is from a New York Times/Siena College poll of 1,142 registered voters nationwide conducted July 22 to 24.

Statistics cited for Democrats and Republicans include voters who identified with or leaned toward each party in the Times/Siena polls.

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Video: Fires Continue to Burn One Week Later in California

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Video: Fires Continue to Burn One Week Later in California

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Fires Continue to Burn One Week Later in California

The Palisades and Eaton fires, ravaging Los Angeles for more than a week, remain mostly uncontained by firefighters.

“We just had — just had Christmas morning right over here, right in front of that chimney. And this is what’s left.” “I urge, and everybody here urges, you to remain alert as danger has not yet passed. Please follow all evacuation warnings and orders without delay and prioritize your safety.”

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South Korea’s President Yoon Suk Yeol arrested after stand-off with police

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South Korea’s President Yoon Suk Yeol arrested after stand-off with police

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South Korea’s suspended President Yoon Suk Yeol was arrested on Wednesday morning following a predawn raid by police and investigators on his fortified hilltop compound.

Yoon’s detention followed a six-hour stand-off between law enforcement officials and members of the president’s security detail. It is the first time in South Korea’s history that a sitting president has been arrested.

The development marks the latest twist in a political crisis that was triggered by his failed attempt to impose martial law last month, and which has shaken confidence in the democratic integrity of Asia’s fourth-largest economy.

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Yoon was suspended from his duties after he was impeached by parliament in December following his attempt to impose martial law. The country is currently being led by finance minister Choi Sang-mok as acting president.

The operation on Wednesday, which began shortly after 4am, was the second attempt this month by the CIO to detain Yoon for questioning on insurrection and abuse of office charges.

An initial effort earlier this month was foiled by Yoon’s protection officers following a tense hours-long stand-off at the presidential residence. Yoon had previously refused to comply with investigators and had challenged their authority to bring him in for questioning.

“The rule of law has completely collapsed in this country,” Yoon said in a video statement recorded before his transfer to the headquarters of the country’s Corruption Investigation Office for questioning. “I’ve decided to appear for CIO questioning in order to prevent any bloodshed.”

According to South Korea’s state-owned news agency Yonhap, police and officials from the CIO arrived at the compound early on Wednesday and presented a warrant for Yoon’s arrest but were again initially prevented from entering by the Presidential Security Service.

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Yonhap also reported that about 30 lawmakers from Yoon’s conservative People Power party were at the compound and attempting to prevent officials from entering it.

But with hundreds of police gathered outside, some of them equipped with ladders and wire cutters to overcome barricades erected by Yoon’s protection officers, CIO officials were eventually allowed to enter the residence.

Yoon’s lawyers initially attempted to broker a deal whereby he would surrender voluntarily for questioning. But this was not accepted by CIO officials, and he was eventually arrested just after 10.30am and transferred to the investigative agency’s headquarters.

“Yoon’s arrest is the first step towards restoring our constitutional order,” said Park Chan-dae, floor leader of the leftwing opposition Democratic Party of Korea. “It underlines that justice is still alive.”

While Yoon’s powers have been transferred to Choi as acting president, he remains South Korea’s head of state while the country’s Constitutional Court deliberates on whether to approve his impeachment or reinstate him in office.

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The court held its first formal hearing into Yoon’s impeachment on Tuesday, but the session was adjourned after four minutes because the suspended president declined to attend, citing concerns for his personal safety.

The efforts by the CIO and police to detain Yoon for questioning relates to a separate, criminal process connected to his failed imposition of martial law. Yoon’s lawyers insist the CIO has no standing to pursue criminal insurrection charges against him.

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SEC sues Elon Musk, says he didn't disclose Twitter ownership on time before purchase

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SEC sues Elon Musk, says he didn't disclose Twitter ownership on time before purchase

Elon Musk speaks as part of a campaign town hall in support of Donald Trump in Folsom, Pa., on Oct. 17, 2024.

Matt Rourke/AP


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Matt Rourke/AP

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has sued billionaire Elon Musk, saying he failed to disclose his ownership of Twitter stock in a timely manner in early 2022, before buying the social media site.

As a result, the SEC alleges, Musk was able to underpay “by at least $150 million” for shares he bought after he should have disclosed his ownership of more than 5% of Twitter’s shares. Musk bought Twitter in October 2022 and later renamed it X.

Musk started amassing Twitter shares in early 2022, and by March of that year, he owned more than 5%. At this point, the complaint says, he was required by law to disclose his ownership, but he failed to do so until April 4, 11 days after the report was due.

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Representatives for X and Musk did not immediately return a message for comment.

After Musk signed a deal to acquire Twitter in April 2022, he tried to back out of it, leading the company to sue him to force him to go through with the acquisition.

The has SEC said that starting in April 2022, it authorized an investigation into whether any securities laws were broken in connection with Musk’s purchases of Twitter stock and his statements and SEC filings related to the company.

Before it filed the lawsuit, the SEC went to court in an attempt to compel Musk to testify as part of an investigation into his purchase of Twitter.

The SEC’s current chair, Gary Gensler, plans to step down from his post on Jan. 20 and it is not clear if the new administration will continue the lawsuit.

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