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Cross-Tabs: September 2024 Times/Siena Polls in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina

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Cross-Tabs: September 2024 Times/Siena Polls in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina

How These Polls Were Conducted

Here are the key things to know about these polls:

• Interviewers spoke with 713 registered voters in Arizona, 682 registered voters in Georgia and 682 registered voters in North Carolina from Sept. 17 to 21, 2024.

• Times/Siena polls are conducted by telephone, using live interviewers, in both English and Spanish. Overall, about 97 percent of respondents were contacted on a cellphone for these polls.

• Voters are selected for the survey from a list of registered voters. The list contains information on the demographic characteristics of every registered voter, allowing us to make sure we reach the right number of voters of each party, race and region. For this poll, interviewers placed more than 250,000 calls to more than 116,000 voters.

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• To further ensure that the results reflect the entire voting population, not just those willing to take a poll, we give more weight to respondents from demographic groups that are underrepresented among survey respondents, like people without a college degree. You can see more information about the characteristics of our respondents and the weighted sample at the bottom of the page, under “Composition of the Sample.”• The margin of sampling error among likely voters is plus or minus 2.5 percentage points across the three states, plus or minus 4.4 percentage points in Arizona, plus or minus 4.6 percentage points in Georgia, and plus or minus 4.2 percentage points in North Carolina. In theory, this means that the results should reflect the views of the overall population most of the time, though many other challenges create additional sources of error. When computing the difference between two values — such as a candidate’s lead in a race — the margin of error is twice as large.

If you want to read more about how and why The Times/Siena Poll is conducted, you can see answers to frequently asked questions and submit your own questions here.

Full Methodology

The New York Times/Siena College polls were conducted in English and Spanish on cellular and landline telephones in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina from Sept. 17 to 21, 2024; In all, 2,077 likely voters were interviewed. When all states are joined together, the margin of sampling error is plus or minus 2.5 percentage points for the likely electorate and plus or minus 2.4 percentage points among registered voters.

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For each state poll, the margin of sampling error among likely voters is plus or minus 4.4 percentage points in Arizona, plus or minus 4.6 percentage points in Georgia, and plus or minus 4.2 percentage points in North Carolina.

Sample

The survey is a response rate-adjusted stratified sample of registered voters on the L2 voter file. The sample was selected by The New York Times in multiple steps to account for differential telephone coverage, nonresponse and significant variation in the productivity of telephone numbers by state.

To adjust for noncoverage bias, the L2 voter file for each state was stratified by statehouse district, party, race, gender, marital status, household size, turnout history, age and home ownership. The proportion of registrants with a telephone number and the mean expected response rate were calculated for each stratum. The mean expected response rate was based on a model of unit nonresponse in prior Times/Siena surveys. The initial selection weight was equal to the reciprocal of a stratum’s mean telephone coverage and modeled response rate. For respondents with multiple telephone numbers on the L2 file, the number with the highest modeled response rate was selected.

Fielding

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The sample was stratified according to political party, race and region and fielded by the Siena College Research Institute, with additional field work by ReconMR, the Public Opinion Research Laboratory at the University of North Florida, the Institute for Policy and Opinion Research at Roanoke College, the Center for Public Opinion and Policy Research at Winthrop University in South Carolina and the Survey Center at University of New Hampshire. Interviewers asked for the person named on the voter file and ended the interview if the intended respondent was not available. Overall, across all three samples, 97 percent of respondents were reached on a cellular telephone.

The instrument was translated into Spanish by ReconMR. Bilingual interviewers began the interview in English and were instructed to follow the lead of the respondent in determining whether to conduct the survey in English or Spanish. Monolingual Spanish-speaking respondents who were initially contacted by English-speaking interviewers were recontacted by Spanish-speaking interviewers. Overall, across all three samples, 11 percent of interviews among self-reported Hispanics were conducted in Spanish, including 14 percent of weighted interviews.

An interview was determined to be complete for the purposes of inclusion in the ballot test question if the respondent did not drop out of the survey by the end of the two self-reported variables used in weighting — age and education — and answered at least one of the age, education or presidential election ballot test questions.

Weighting — registered voters

The survey was weighted by The Times using the R survey package in multiple steps.

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First, the sample was adjusted for unequal probability of selection by stratum.

Second, each poll was weighted to match voter file-based parameters for the characteristics of registered voters.

The following targets were used:

• Party (party registration if available in the state, else classification based on participation in partisan primaries if available in the state, else classification based on a model of vote choice in prior Times/Siena polls) by whether the respondent’s race is modeled as white or nonwhite (L2 model)

• Age (Self-reported age, or voter file age if the respondent refuses) by gender (L2)

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• Race or ethnicity (L2 model)

• Education (four categories of self-reported education level, weighted to match NYT-based targets derived from Times/Siena polls, census data and the L2 voter file)

• White/non-white race by college or non-college educational attainment (L2 model of race weighted to match NYT-based targets for self-reported education)

• Marital status (L2 model)

• Home ownership (L2 model)

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• Turnout history (NYT classifications based on L2 data)

• State region (NYT classifications)

• Method of voting in the 2020 elections (NYT classifications based on L2 data)

• Party (NYT classifications) by age (L2), in North Carolina

• Census tract educational attainment, in Arizona and Georgia

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Finally, the sample of respondents who completed all questions in the survey was weighted identically, as well as to the result for the general election horse race question (including leaners) on the full sample.

Weighting — likely electorate

The survey was weighted by The Times using the R survey package in multiple steps.

First, the samples were adjusted for unequal probability of selection by stratum.

Second, the first-stage weight was adjusted to account for the probability that a registrant would vote in the 2024 election, based on a model of turnout in the 2020 election.

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Third, the sample was weighted to match targets for the composition of the likely electorate. The targets for the composition of the likely electorate were derived by aggregating the individual-level turnout estimates described in the previous step for registrants on the L2 voter file. The categories used in weighting were the same as those previously mentioned for registered voters.

Fourth, the initial likely electorate weight was adjusted to incorporate self-reported intention to vote. Four-fifths of the final probability that a registrant would vote in the 2024 election was based on their ex ante modeled turnout score and one-fifth based on their self-reported intentions, based on prior Times/Siena polls, including a penalty to account for the tendency of survey respondents to turn out at higher rates than nonrespondents. The final likely electorate weight was equal to the modeled electorate rake weight, multiplied by the final turnout probability and divided by the ex ante modeled turnout probability.

Finally, the sample of respondents who completed all questions in the survey was weighted identically, as well as to the result for the general election horse race question (including leaners) on the full sample.

The margin of error accounts for the survey’s design effect, a measure of the loss of statistical power due to survey design and weighting.

The design effect for the full sample is 1.43 for the likely electorate in Arizona, 1.51 for the likely electorate in Georgia, and 1.26 for the likely electorate in North Carolina.

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Among registered voters, the margin of sampling error is plus or minus 4.1 points in Arizona, including a design effect of 1.27; plus or minus 4.3 points in Georgia, including a design effect of 1.34; and plus or minus 4.2 points in North Carolina, including a design effect of 1.26.

For the sample of completed interviews, among the likely electorate, the margin of sampling error is plus or minus 4.7 points in Arizona, including a design effect of 1.40; plus or minus 5.1 points in Georgia, including a design effect of 1.59; and plus or minus 4.6 points in North Carolina, including a design effect of 1.28.

Historically, The Times/Siena Poll’s error at the 95th percentile has been plus or minus 5.1 percentage points in surveys taken over the final three weeks before an election. Real-world error includes sources of error beyond sampling error, such as nonresponse bias, coverage error, late shifts among undecided voters and error in estimating the composition of the electorate.

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Wheelchair curler Steve Emt’s path from drunk driver to three-time Paralympian

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Wheelchair curler Steve Emt’s path from drunk driver to three-time Paralympian

American Steve Emt competes in Sunday’s mixed doubles match against Italy, which the U.S. won.

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Anyone watching the Winter Paralympics has probably taken note of Steve Emt, who — along with Laura Dwyer — is representing Team USA in the Games’ first-ever mixed doubles event.

Their performance is one thing: The pair notched three dramatic, back-to-back wins in the round-robin tournament to reach the semifinals, marking the first time the U.S. has qualified for a medal round in wheelchair curling since the 2010 Paralympics.

After losing to Korea in the semifinals, Emt and Dwyer will face Latvia in the bronze medal match on Tuesday, in the hopes of winning the U.S. its first Paralympic medal in wheelchair curling.

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But it’s their teamwork and attitude on ice that really set them apart. Emt, in particular, has charmed the internet, with his booming baritone delivering a steady stream of encouragement to his doubles partner and demands to the granite stones they’re sliding (“curl!” “sit!”).

“I have three older siblings. I was always on the basketball court getting beat up by them, so I had to assert myself on the court, around the kitchen table, everything,” he said when asked about his deep voice this week.

Steve Emt and Laura Dwyer celebrate during a match this week.

Steve Emt and Laura Dwyer have made sure to celebrate their wins, of which there have been many throughout this wheelchair curling mixed doubles round-robin tournament.

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While Emt, 56, is competing in a new event, he’s no stranger to the sport: The 10-time national champion and three-time Paralympian is the most decorated Paralympic curler in U.S. history.

But he didn’t know what curling was until he got recruited off the street just over a decade ago.

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Emt, who is 6 feet, 5 inches tall, was enjoying a day in Cape Cod, Mass., in 2013 when a stranger with slicked-back hair approached and asked if he was local. Emt replied that he lived in Connecticut and suspiciously asked why.

“He said, ‘Well, I train with the Paralympic rowing team here in the Cape. I saw you pushing up the hill back there. With your build, I could make you an Olympian in a year,’” Emt recalled, referring to his wheelchair. “And I heard ‘Olympics,’ I’m like: Let’s go. What the hell is curling?”

After their conversation, Emt drove home and did some research, confirming that curling was not related to weightlifting, as he originally suspected.

“I went back two weeks later and I threw my first stone, and it just bit me,” he said.

Before long, Emt was making the two-and-a-half-hour drive to Massachusetts to spend the weekend training with that stranger-turned-coach, Tony Colacchio. He made the U.S. wheelchair curling team in 2014 and competed at his first world championship in 2015. Emt made his Paralympic debut in Pyeongchang in 2018, five years after that fateful encounter.

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Emt, speaking to reporters in October, said the sport of curling has changed him as a person, mellowing him out. But the existence of the sport as a competitive outlet for athletes with disabilities changed his life.

Emt had been an all-star high school athlete, an Army West Point cadet and a UConn basketball walk-on before a drunk driving incident paralyzed him from the waist down at 25 years old.

“I’m a jock … I need to compete, and I didn’t have anything going on in my life,” Emt said. “Seventeen years after my crash, I had a hole, and then [Colacchio] came along and stalked me into the sport.”

By that point, Emt had spent years working as a middle school math teacher, a high school basketball coach and a motivational speaker. The latter has been his full-time job for almost a decade, taking him to over 100 schools across the country each year. He tells those teenagers about the chance Colacchio took on him, encouraging them to “be a Tony.”

“Go sit with that kid at lunch that’s sitting alone … smile [at] somebody in a hallway, get your heads out of your phones, get your heads out of the sand,” he continued. “We’re all going through something … and a simple ‘hello’ or ‘good morning,’ it could change their day. It could change somebody’s life.”

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Why Emt now shares his story 

This is the third Paralympics for Emt, who is already eyeing Salt Lake City 20

This is the third Paralympics for Emt, who is already eyeing Salt Lake City 2034.

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Emt wasn’t always so willing to open up. For the first half a year after his 1995 crash, he told everyone a deer had run in front of his car rather than admit he had gotten behind the wheel drunk.

“I was lying to myself, I was lying to everybody around me,” he said. “I didn’t want kids to look at me in my hometown, in the state, and everyone around the country, as a drunk driver. I wanted them to look at me as a stud athlete and a great person.”

Emt had been a “stud athlete”: His talents in high school basketball, soccer and baseball made him a star in his hometown of Hebron, Conn., and earned him a spot on the basketball team at West Point.

But he dropped out two years later, after his father’s sudden death from a heart attack. He went home to Connecticut and eventually enrolled at UConn, where he walked on to its storied basketball team, joining future NBA greats like Donyell Marshall. Emt says, with a chuckle, that he had 38.7 seconds of playing time in his two years.

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Emt was wearing his Big East championship jacket the night of his 1995 accident, which he says left him for dead on the side of the highway. When he woke up from a coma a few days later, he learned he would never walk again.

And he didn’t want to tell people why, until a newspaper reporter approached him six months later wanting to tell his story — and encouraged him to be honest. He said the opportunity to “come clean” helped him accept what he’d done and forgive himself.

“That’s my label: Yeah I’m a curler, yeah I’m a speaker, yeah I’m a drunk driver,” he said. “I’m in a wheelchair because of a drunk driving crash, and I want you to know it and I want you to learn from me.”

Emt first got into motivational speaking about eight months after his accident, and has been doing it ever since. He calls it his therapy.

He says that and curling — which is about shaking hands with competitors instead of smack-talking them — has helped him slow down and appreciate the little things. Relocating to Wisconsin and the chiller pace of Midwest life has also helped. And he says he cherishes the platform that curling has given him.

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“I want people to know: ‘Hey, when you’re ready to talk, I’m here for you.’ This is what I do, from my speaking to my curling, whatever it is, there are so many opportunities to be successful again,” he said. “When you wake up and you’re told you’re never going to walk again, it’s like, what do I do now? … And I just want people to know that there are so many avenues out there, so many things to do.”

Emt, the oldest Paralympian on Team USA, originally aimed to make it to three Games. But he’s now eyeing even more, as he’d like to compete on home turf in Salt Lake City in 2034 (two Games away).

“I’m going to be like 90 years old competing at the Paralympics,” he laughed.

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Map: 2.3-Magnitude Earthquake Reported North of New York City

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Map: 2.3-Magnitude Earthquake Reported North of New York City

Note: Map shows the area with a shake intensity of 3 or greater, which U.S.G.S. defines as “weak,” though the earthquake may be felt outside the areas shown.  All times on the map are Eastern. The New York Times

A minor, 2.3-magnitude earthquake struck about 12 miles north of New York City on Tuesday, according to the United States Geological Survey.

The temblor happened at 10:17 a.m. Eastern in Sleepy Hollow, N.Y., data from the agency shows.

The Westchester County emergency services department said in a statement that it had not received any reports of damage.

As seismologists review available data, they may revise the earthquake’s reported magnitude. Additional information collected about the earthquake may also prompt U.S.G.S. scientists to update the shake-severity map.

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Source: United States Geological Survey | Notes: Shaking categories are based on the Modified Mercalli Intensity scale. When aftershock data is available, the corresponding maps and charts include earthquakes within 100 miles and seven days of the initial quake. All times above are Eastern. Shake data is as of Tuesday, March 10 at 10:30 a.m. Eastern. Aftershocks data is as of Tuesday, March 10 at 2:18 p.m. Eastern.

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Ed Martin, outspoken Justice Department lawyer, is formally accused of ethical violations | CNN Politics

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Ed Martin, outspoken Justice Department lawyer, is formally accused of ethical violations | CNN Politics

Ed Martin, an outspoken Trump administration official, is facing attorney discipline proceedings in Washington, DC, for a letter he sent to Georgetown Law about its diversity programs, the district’s professional conduct investigator announced on Tuesday.

Martin is formally accused of violating his ethical codes as an attorney for telling Georgetown Law’s dean last year that his Justice Department office wouldn’t hire students because of the school’s diversity, inclusion and equity initiatives programs, according to the filing from Hamilton Fox, the disciplinary counsel for DC who acts as a quasi-prosecutor on attorney discipline matters.

Unlike unsolicited complaints, Fox’s formal disciplinary complaint kicks off professional conduct proceedings for Martin in which he will need to respond and could be sanctioned or ultimately lose his law license.

Fox’s announcement on Tuesday marks the first major bar discipline proceeding against a high-profile administration official or attorney supporting President Donald Trump during Trump’s second term. Several Trump lawyers faced disciplinary proceedings after the efforts to overturn Joe Biden’s victory in the 2020 presidential election, including Rudy Giuliani, who lost his law license.

“Acting in his official capacity and speaking on behalf of the government, he used coercion to punish or suppress a disfavored viewpoint, the teaching and promotion of ‘DEI,’” Fox wrote in the complaint. “He demanded that Georgetown Law relinquish its free speech and religious rights in order to continue to obtain a benefit, employment opportunities for its students.”

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Martin was removed from the top prosecutor job in DC after senators made clear he would not be confirmed to the role, but has remained at the Justice Department in several roles, including as pardon attorney.

“Mr. Martin knew or should have known that, as a government official, his conduct violated the First and Fifth Amendments to the Constitution of the United States,” Fox wrote.

Martin is being represented by a Justice Department attorney, a source told CNN.

A spokesperson for DOJ attacked Fox’s complaint. “The DC bar’s attempt to target and punish those serving President Trump while refusing to investigate or act against actual ethical violations that were committed by Biden and Obama administration attorneys is a clear indication of this partisan organization’s agenda,” DOJ said.

Martin had sent the letter to Georgetown Law while serving temporarily as US attorney for DC, a prominent Justice Department position, and told the school his federal prosecutors’ office wouldn’t hire Georgetown’s law school students. It came at a time when the Trump administration was beginning to crack down on universities for their DEI efforts.

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In his letter, Martin claimed a whistleblower told him that the school was teaching and promoting DEI.

Martin also violated attorney ethics rules by contacting judges of the DC court directly, Fox alleged, rather than going through official channels, once he was informed he was under investigation for his professional conduct. The DC Court of Appeals ultimately signs off on attorney discipline findings.

Early last year, Fox’s office had formally asked Martin to respond to a complaint it received by a retired judge regarding the Georgetown letter.

Martin instead wrote to the judges on the DC court complaining about Fox.

“In that letter, he stated that he would not be responding to Disciplinary Counsel’s inquiry, complained about Disciplinary Counsel’s ‘uneven behavior,’ and requested a ‘face-to-face meeting with all of you to discuss this matter and find a way forward,’” Fox wrote.

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“He copied the White House Counsel ‘for informational purposes because of the importance of getting this issue addressed,’” Fox said.

The top judge in the DC courts told Martin the court wouldn’t meet with him about the disciplinary matter and that he would need to follow procedure.

With Fox’s complaint, there will now be several steps ahead of bar discipline authorities looking at Martin’s action, and Fox didn’t specify how Martin should be reprimanded or punished if the discipline boards and the court ultimately determine he violated his ethical codes.

Spokespeople for the Justice Department didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment on Tuesday morning.

In recent days, Attorney General Pam Bondi announced her office would have a more powerful role in reviewing attorney discipline complaints against Justice Department attorneys, potentially setting up an approach that could keep the department at odds with the bar on behalf of DOJ attorneys facing their own individual disciplinary proceedings.

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CNN’s Paula Reid contributed to this report.

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