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Cross-Tabs: July 2024 Times/Siena Poll of the Likely Electorate in Virginia

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Cross-Tabs: July 2024 Times/Siena Poll of the Likely Electorate in Virginia

How These Polls Were Conducted

Here are the key things to know about these Times/Siena polls:

• We spoke with 872 registered voters in Pennsylvania from July 9 to 11 and 661 registered voters in Virginia from July 9 to 12, 2024.

• Our polls are conducted by telephone, using live interviewers, in both English and Spanish. About 91 percent of respondents were contacted on a cellphone for this poll.

• Voters are selected from a list of registered voters. The list contains information on the demographic characteristics of every registered voter, allowing us to make sure we reach the right number of voters of each party, race and region. For these polls, we placed more than 160,000 calls to nearly 100,000 voters.

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• To further ensure that the results reflect the entire voting population, not just those willing to take a poll, we give more weight to respondents from demographic groups that are underrepresented among survey respondents, like people without a college degree. You can see more information about the characteristics of our respondents and the weighted sample at the bottom of the page, under “Composition of the Sample.”

• The margin of sampling error among registered voters is plus or minus 3.7 percentage points in Pennsylvania and plus or minus 4.2 percentage points in Virginia. In theory, this means that the results should reflect the views of the overall population most of the time, though many other challenges create additional sources of error. When computing the difference between two values — such as a candidate’s lead in a race — the margin of error is twice as large.

If you want to read more about how and why we conduct our polls, you can see answers to frequently asked questions and submit your own questions here.

Full Methodology

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The New York Times/Siena College poll of 872 registered voters in Pennsylvania, including 793 who completed the full survey, was conducted from July 9 to 11, 2024. The Times/Siena poll of 661 registered voters in Virginia, including 615 who completed the full survey, was conducted from July 9 to 12, 2024. The margin of sampling error in Pennsylvania is plus or minus 3.7 percentage points for registered voters and plus or minus 3.8 percentage points for the likely electorate. In Virginia, the margin of sampling error is plus or minus 4.2 percentage points for registered voters and plus or minus 4.4 percentage points for likely voters.

Among those who completed the full survey, the margin of sampling error in Pennsylvania is plus or minus 3.9 percentage points for registered voters and plus or minus four percentage points for the likely electorate; in Virginia, it is plus or minus 4.4 percentage points for registered voters and plus or minus 4.6 percentage points for the likely electorate.

Sample

The survey is a response rate-adjusted stratified sample of registered voters on the L2 voter file. The sample was selected by The New York Times in multiple steps to account for differential telephone coverage, nonresponse and significant variation in the productivity of telephone numbers by state.

The L2 voter file for each state was stratified by statehouse district, party, race, gender, marital status, household size, turnout history, age and homeownership. The proportion of registrants with a telephone number and the mean expected response rate, based on prior Times/Siena polls, were calculated for each stratum. The initial selection weight was equal to the reciprocal of a stratum’s mean telephone coverage and modeled response rate. For respondents with multiple telephone numbers on the L2 file, the number with the highest modeled response rate was selected.

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Fielding

The samples for each state were stratified by political party, race and region and were fielded by the Siena College Research Institute, with additional field work by ReconMR, the Public Opinion Research Laboratory at the University of North Florida and the Institute of Policy and Opinion Research at Roanoke College. Interviewers asked for the person named on the voter file and ended the interview if the intended respondent was not available. Overall, 91 percent of respondents were reached on a cellular telephone.

The instrument was translated into Spanish by ReconMR. Bilingual interviewers began the interview in English and were instructed to follow the lead of the respondent in determining whether to conduct the survey in English or Spanish. Monolingual Spanish-speaking respondents who were initially contacted by English-speaking interviewers were recontacted by Spanish-speaking interviewers. Overall, 10 percent of interviews among self-reported Hispanics were conducted in Spanish, including 14 percent of weighted interviews.

An interview was determined to be complete for the purposes of inclusion in the ballot test question if the respondent did not drop out of the survey by the end of the two self-reported variables used in weighting — age and education — and answered at least one of the age, education, race or presidential election ballot test questions.

Weighting — registered voters

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The survey was weighted by The Times using the R survey package in multiple steps.

First, the sample was adjusted for unequal probability of selection by stratum.

Second, the sample was weighted to match voter file-based parameters for the characteristics of registered voters.

The following targets were used:

• Party (party registration if available in the state, else classification based on participation in partisan primaries if available in the state, else classification based on a model of vote choice in prior Times/Siena polls) by whether the respondent’s race is modeled as white or nonwhite (L2 model)

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• Age (Self-reported age, or voter file age if the respondent refuses) by gender (L2)

• Race or ethnicity (L2 model)

• Education (four categories of self-reported education level, weighted to match NYT-based targets derived from Times/Siena polls, census data and the L2 voter file)

• White/non-white race by college or non-college educational attainment (L2 model of race weighted to match NYT-based targets for self-reported education)

• Marital status (L2 model)

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• Home ownership (L2 model)

• State region (NYT classifications)

• Turnout history (NYT classifications based on L2 data)

• Method of voting in the 2020 elections (NYT classifications based on L2 data)

Finally, the sample of respondents who completed all questions in the survey was weighted identically, as well as to the result for the general election horse race question (including leaners) on the full sample.

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Weighting — likely electorate

The survey was weighted by The Times using the R survey package in multiple steps.

First, the samples were adjusted for unequal probability of selection by stratum.

Second, the first-stage weight was adjusted to account for the probability that a registrant would vote in the 2024 election, based on a model of turnout in the 2020 election.

Third, the sample was weighted to match targets for the composition of the likely electorate. The targets for the composition of the likely electorate were derived by aggregating the individual-level turnout estimates described in the previous step for registrants on the L2 voter file. The categories used in weighting were the same as those previously mentioned for registered voters.

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Fourth, the initial likely electorate weight was adjusted to incorporate self-reported intention to vote. Four-fifths of the final probability that a registrant would vote in the 2024 election was based on their ex ante modeled turnout score and one-fifth based on their self-reported intentions, based on prior Times/Siena polls, including a penalty to account for the tendency of survey respondents to turn out at higher rates than nonrespondents. The final likely electorate weight was equal to the modeled electorate rake weight, multiplied by the final turnout probability and divided by the ex ante modeled turnout probability.

Finally, the sample of respondents who completed all questions in the survey was weighted identically, as well as to the result for the general election horse race question (including leaners) on the full sample.

The margin of error accounts for the survey’s design effect, a measure of the loss of statistical power due to survey design and weighting. The design effect for the full sample is 1.23 for registered voters and 1.29 for the likely electorate in Pennsylvania, and 1.20 for registered voters and 1.31 for the likely electorate in Virginia. The design effect for the sample of completed interviews is 1.24 for registered voters and 1.31 for the likely electorate in Pennsylvania, and 1.22 for registered voters and 1.34 for the likely electorate in Virginia.

Historically, The Times/Siena Poll’s error at the 95th percentile has been plus or minus 5.1 percentage points in surveys taken over the final three weeks before an election. Real-world error includes sources of error beyond sampling error, such as nonresponse bias, coverage error, late shifts among undecided voters and error in estimating the composition of the electorate.

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Election 2024 Polls: Minnesota

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Election 2024 Polls: Minnesota

About our polling averages

Our averages include polls collected by The New York Times and by FiveThirtyEight. The estimates adjust for a variety of factors, including the recency and sample size of a poll, whether a poll represents likely voters, and whether other polls have shifted since a poll was conducted.

We also evaluate whether each pollster: Has a track record of accuracy in recent electionsIs a member of a professional polling organizationConducts probability-based sampling

These elements factor into how much weight each poll gets in the average. And we consider pollsters that meet at least two of the three criteria to be “select pollsters,” so long as they are conducting polls for nonpartisan sponsors. Read more about our methodology.

The Times conducts its own national and state polls in partnership with Siena College. Those polls are included in the averages. Follow Times/Siena polling here.

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Sources: Polling averages by The New York Times. Individual polls collected by FiveThirtyEight and The Times.

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Donald Trump picks Ohio senator JD Vance as 2024 running mate

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Donald Trump picks Ohio senator JD Vance as 2024 running mate

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Donald Trump has picked Senator JD Vance as his running mate, elevating a former US marine who grew up poor in a move that could help the former president win votes across the crucial swing states of the industrial Midwest.

Trump announced Vance, the junior US senator from Ohio, as his vice-presidential pick on the first day of the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, and just two days after a gunman attempted to assassinate him.

Trump confirmed his pick in a post on his Truth Social platform on Monday afternoon, saying “after lengthy deliberation and thought, and considering the tremendous talents of many others”, he had decided Vance was the “person best suited to assume the position of vice-president”.

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Vance, who once described Trump as an “idiot” and said he was a “never Trump guy”, has been among the former president’s most ardent supporters in recent years and one of his most fluent surrogates on the campaign trail.

The announcement ended months of speculation and completed the Republican party’s 2024 ticket with less than four months to go until November’s election. Trump leads his Democratic rival, President Joe Biden, in most national and swing state polls.

Trump’s decision marks a meteoric rise for Vance, who was elected to the Senate for the first time just two years ago. If Trump, 78, wins another term, Vance, 39, will be just a heartbeat away from the presidency. The vice-president is the first person in the presidential line of succession.

Vance first came to national prominence in 2016 with the publication of Hillbilly Elegy, his memoir about growing up in white, working-class America surrounded by substance abuse. The US Marine Corps veteran and Yale Law School graduate worked in venture capital before turning to politics.

Soon after Trump’s announcement, Biden issued a call for donations to his campaign, posting on X: “Here’s the deal about JD Vance. He talks a big game about working people. But now, he and Trump want to raise taxes on middle-class families while pushing more tax cuts for the rich.”

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Trump suggested on Monday that Vance’s background would help him appeal to voters in the industrial Midwest. He said in his social media post that his running mate would be “strongly focused on the people he fought so brilliantly for, the American Workers and Farmers in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio, Minnesota, and far beyond”.

Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin are seen as critical battleground states for Trump to win if he is to secure another four years as president.

Scott Reed, a veteran Republican strategist, praised the pick, saying: “Vance will help Trump climb the blue wall of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania — and win the White House.”

Within minutes of Trump’s post, his campaign published a 60-second advertisement featuring the Ohio senator and the branding “Trump-Vance 2024”.

Vance’s brand of populist politics has earned him plaudits from the Republican base and Trump. But it has also ruffled feathers among more traditional Republicans who bristle at his isolationist foreign policy views — the senator has long opposed more US aid for Ukraine — and embrace of a higher minimum wage, trade protectionism and more aggressive antitrust enforcement.

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“Wall Street will be begging for the return of Lina Khan after two months of the Trump-Vance administration,” said one New York dealmaker, reacting to the news.

GOP consultant Ken Spain said Vance “proudly represents the ascendant blue-collar wing of the GOP that is sceptical of business”, adding: “He’s not a counterweight to Trump aimed at ‘balancing out’ the ticket. He’s a potential heir apparent.”

Trump had delayed making an announcement until the last possible minute, in a drawn-out process that he likened to a “highly sophisticated version of The Apprentice”, his one-time reality television franchise. As recently as last week, he had said he was still weighing “four or five” possible running mates.

Trump famously fell out with his former vice-president, Mike Pence, after the January 6 2021 attack on the US Capitol, when a mob of the then-president’s supporters threatened Pence for his decision to certify the results of the 2020 presidential election, confirming Biden’s victory.

Pence has not endorsed Trump’s latest bid for the White House, but at the weekend said he was praying for his former boss’s “full recovery” after the shooting at a campaign rally in Pennsylvania.

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Additional reporting by James Fontanella-Khan in New York and Alex Rogers in Washington

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See full RNC roll call of states vote results for the 2024 Republican nomination

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See full RNC roll call of states vote results for the 2024 Republican nomination

Washington — Republican governors, lawmakers and nearly 2,500 delegates are convening in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, for the Republican National Convention, with former President Donald Trump formally receiving the party’s 2024 nomination for president during a roll call vote of the state delegations Monday.

The roll call brings to an end the GOP presidential primary, though it’s been known for months that Trump would be the party’s choice to take on President Biden in November. The former president clinched the nomination in March, after he secured the 1,215 Republican delegates needed to become the presumptive GOP presidential nominee.

Trump announced Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance as his vice presidential running mate as the roll call was underway. Trump will also deliver a speech formally accepting the Republican presidential nomination to close out the convention Thursday.

With the announcement of Florida’s 125 votes for Trump, delivered by his son, Eric Trump, the GOP officially nominated him for president. Eric Trump was accompanied by Donald Trump Jr., the former president’s eldest son, and Tiffany Trump, his daughter.

House Speaker Mike Johnson, who is chair of the convention, announced at the conclusion of the roll call that 2,387 votes were cast for Trump.

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“Let’s make it official,” he said. “Accordingly, the chair announces the President Donald J. Trump, having received a majority of the votes entitled to be cast at the convention, has been selected as the Republican Party nominee for president of the United States.”

Results of the RNC roll call of states for 2024

State delegations announced their votes for the presidential nomination. Here is the breakdown of votes from each state and territory:

  • Iowa: 40 votes for Trump
  • Nevada: 26 votes for Trump
  • Oklahoma: 43 votes for Trump
  • West Virginia: 32 votes for Trump
  • New Hampshire: 22 votes for Trump
  • Nebraska: 36 votes for Trump
  • California: 169 votes for Trump
  • Tennessee: 58 votes for Trump
  • Washington state: 43 votes for Trump
  • Alabama: 50 votes for Trump
  • Massachusetts: 40 votes for Trump
  • Indiana: 58 votes for Trump
  • Georgia: 59 votes for Trump
  • Utah: 40 votes for Trump
  • Maryland: 37 votes for Trump
  • Texas: 161 votes for Trump
  • Ohio: 79 votes for Trump
  • American Samoa: 9 votes for Trump
  • Wisconsin: 41 votes for Trump
  • New York: 91 votes for Trump
  • Florida: 125 votes for Trump
  • Puerto Rico: 23 for Trump
  • Kentucky: 46 votes for Trump
  • Hawaii: 19 votes for Trump
  • Kansas: 39 votes for Trump
  • Louisiana: 47 votes for Trump
  • Delaware: 16 votes for Trump
  • Guam: 9 votes for Trump
  • Connecticut: 28 votes for Trump
  • Alaska: 29 votes for Trump
  • Oregon: 31 votes for Trump
  • Mississippi: 40 votes for Trump
  • Northern Mariana Islands: 9 votes for Trump
  • Wyoming: 29 votes for Trump
  • Maine: 20 votes for Trump
  • Missouri: 54 votes for Trump
  • Idaho: 32 votes for Trump
  • Illinois: 64 votes for Trump
  • North Dakota: 29 votes for Trump
  • Arizona: 43 votes for Trump
  • New Jersey: 12 votes for Trump
  • U.S. Virgin Islands: 4 votes for Trump
  • North Carolina: 62 votes for Trump; 12 votes to be cast pursuant to convention rules
  • Arkansas: 40 votes for Trump
  • Virginia: 42 votes for Trump; 6 votes to be cast pursuant to convention rules
  • Michigan: 51 votes for Trump; 4 votes to be cast pursuant to convention rules
  • Minnesota: 39 votes for Trump
  • Colorado: 37 votes for Trump
  • Rhode Island: 19 votes for Trump
  • Pennsylvania: 67 votes for Trump
  • South Dakota: 29 votes for Trump
  • New Mexico: 22 votes for Trump
  • Montana: 31 votes for Trump
  • South Carolina: 50 votes for Trump
  • Vermont: 17 votes for Trump
  • Washington, D.C.: 19 votes to be cast pursuant to convention rules

How does the RNC’s roll call of states work?

During the roll call, the head of each state’s and territory’s delegation was called on to announce the votes of their state or territory’s respective nomination for president. If a state delegation had passed when its name is called, it will be called again at the conclusion of the roll call.

Delegates are selected to represent their state or area at the convention, and most of those are bound to back Trump, as they’re required to vote in accordance with the outcome of their state’s primary or caucus. Roughly 150 delegates were unbound heading into the convention, since a small number of delegations, including those from Montana, New Mexico and South Dakota, were not required to vote for their state’s chosen candidate.

Trump came into the convention with an estimated 2,243 delegates based on the results of primaries and caucuses held earlier this year, according to the CBS News Delegate Tracker.

What happens to delegates for candidates who have dropped out?

Though Trump cruised to victory during the primary elections, his former rival in the race, Nikki Haley, secured 94 delegates, according to the Delegate Tracker. Haley’s campaign said she earned 97 delegates during the primary process.

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But Haley announced last week she would be releasing those delegates and encouraged them to vote for Trump at the convention. State party rules dictate whether Haley’s delegates are bound to her or whether they’re free to vote for a different candidate since she withdrew from the presidential contest.

In Iowa, for example, Trump, Haley, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and biotech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswaky secured delegates after the caucuses. But under state party rules, since Trump was the only candidate nominated at the convention, the entire 40-person delegation voted for him.

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