Connect with us

News

China’s growth enigma

Published

on

China’s growth enigma

Unlock the Editor’s Digest for free

The Chinese economy grew by 5.2 per cent last year, according to official statistics. But for many in business, it probably did not feel like that from the evidence on the streets of Beijing and other large cities.

Restaurants were not busy, shops were vacant and there were widespread reports of property prices falling more than the official numbers. Rhodium Group, a research company, argued in December that most economic indicators in 2023 suggested actual growth was more like 1.5 per cent. There were bright spots, it said, such as electric vehicle production, but these could not offset the “general malaise”.

For business, the divide between such estimates and official data on how fast the world’s second-largest economy can grow this year and beyond has become an important issue for their global expansion plans. An annual survey by the American Chamber of Commerce in China of its members found just over half were planning to increase their investments in the country this year, a little up from last year. For slightly more than a quarter of this group, expectations of faster economic growth in 2024 were an important factor.

Advertisement

The question of measuring that growth though is becoming increasingly politicised as Beijing seeks to steer the narrative away from criticisms that its growth model is overly dependent on state-driven investment rather than consumption.

In its annual report on China released on Friday, the IMF said that the country’s post-pandemic recovery last year was “subdued” as property and weak exports and investment weighed on growth. It also forecast slower growth in 2024.

This provoked an indignant response from Chinese officials. IMF staff should provide a “more appropriate forecast” to help China “stabilise” confidence “at home and abroad”, said a statement from Zhengxin Zhang, China IMF executive director, that accompanied the IMF’s report.

So who is right? At 5.2 per cent year-on-year, Beijing’s official 2023 gross domestic growth figure is the lowest in decades, excluding the pandemic years of 2020 and 2022, But is still sizeable for an economy of China’s heft and sophistication.

The issue for China though is that the rebound might have been expected to be more robust from 2022 — a year when Covid lockdowns and rigid travel restrictions hit service industries and supply chains and deepened the slowdown in the property sector.

Advertisement

While growth was strong in the first quarter of 2023, it required increasing government support as the year wore on. Consumption, boosted by the release of pent-up demand from lockdowns, made up most of the growth in 2023. However, consumer confidence remained well below pre-pandemic levels towards the end of the year, the IMF said. It estimated that net foreign direct investment also declined from 2022.

Lower business and market confidence was reflected in capital markets. China’s CSI 300 stock index has lost 5.5 per cent this year, compounding falls in 2023. The benchmark is down 45 per cent from 2021 highs. And the AmCham China survey showing that while profitability of its members had improved in China from 2022, most companies were breaking even or lossmaking, further suggesting less than robust growth.

The government insists that everything is going to plan. Yet domestically it has cracked down on dissenting opinions about the economy, deepening long-running scepticism about the accuracy of official data.

Some economists believe that when calculating real GDP growth from nominal data, Beijing is able to adjust the deflator, the broadest measure of prices in the economy, to hit its targets. “Some estimates suggest that official Chinese data overstate its GDP by around 20 per cent,” Oxford Economics wrote in December.

For 2024, the IMF is forecasting 4.6 per cent growth and then about 3.5 per cent by 2028 on “weak productivity and ageing”. These forecasts are broadly in line with market expectations. Oxford Economics is predicting growth to fall to about 3.5 per cent by 2030 and just 2 per cent by 2040, possibly delaying the day that China’s economy will converge with the US in terms of size.

Advertisement

China’s Zhang responded that the country still has many growth drivers — the population is getting older but more educated, urbanisation has more room to grow and Beijing is investing in science and technology. “China will continue to be the vital engine of global economic growth,” insisted Zhang. Global boardrooms are hoping he is right. But the bar is rising for China to prove it.

joseph.leahy@ft.com

News

Rev. Jesse Jackson, a civil rights icon, dies at 84

Published

on

Rev. Jesse Jackson, a civil rights icon, dies at 84

In the first race, he won more than 18% of the primary vote and a handful of primaries and caucuses.

“Merely by being black and forcing other candidates to consider his very real potential to garner black votes, which they need, Jackson has had an impact,” read a 1984 New York Times profile.

Four years later, he built on that success by winning 11 primaries and caucuses.

Jackson began his work as an organizer with the Congress of Racial Equality, participating in marches and sit-ins. He attended North Carolina A&T State University and graduated with a degree in sociology. He began rallying student support for King during his divinity studies at Chicago Theological Seminary and participated in the 1965 Selma-to-Montgomery march in Alabama.

Shortly afterward, Jackson joined the Southern Christian Leadership Conference, or SCLC, to work alongside King full time. He drew praise from King as a young man running the SCLC’s economic development and empowerment program, Operation Breadbasket — “we knew he was going to do a good job, but he’s done better than a good job,” King said.

Advertisement
Jackson shakes hands at the 20th anniversary commemoration of the Rev. Martin Luther King Jr.’s Freedom March, also known as the “March on Washington.”Bettmann / Bettmann Archive

As he grew as an organizer, Jackson married Jacqueline Brown, who survives him, in 1962. They have five children, including former Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr., D-Ill.

Jackson, who was at the motel in Memphis, Tennessee, with King when he was assassinated in 1968, did not let up after King’s death. He took his vision for Black liberation even further by founding People United to Save Humanity, or PUSH, in 1971. He resigned from the SCLC that year to start PUSH after he was suspended from the organization; he was accused of using the SCLC for personal gain. PUSH worked to improve economic conditions of Black communities in the country and later expanded to politics with direct action campaigns and social areas through a weekly radio show and awards for Black people.

Jackson’s 1984 presidential bid prompted the launch of his National Rainbow Coalition, which opposed President Ronald Reagan’s policies and advocated for social programs, voting rights and affirmative action. PUSH and the National Rainbow Coalition merged in 1996 and are now the Rainbow/PUSH Coalition.

His 1984 campaign angered some Democrats who said his ideas were too left-leaning and would hurt the party in the general election. Jackson dismissed the concerns.

“The great responsibility that we have today is to put the poor and the near-poor back on front of the American agenda,” Jackson said of the 1984 campaign in a 1996 interview with PBS. “This is a dangerous mission, and yet it’s a necessary mission!”

Advertisement
African American Activist Jesse Jackson Announces His Candidacy
Jackson announces his candidacy for the Democratic presidential nomination on Nov. 3, 1983.Bettmann / Bettmann Archive

Jackson’s 1984 campaign was marred when he referred to Jewish people as “hymies” and called New York City “hymietown” in a Washington Post interview. He initially denied having made the remarks and accused Jewish people of targeting his campaign. He later admitted having used the slur and offered an impassioned apology.

In 1991, Jackson was elected as one of Washington, D.C.’s two “shadow senators” to lobby for D.C. statehood and served one term.

Jackson also helped win the release of several detained and captured Americans around the world. In 1999, he negotiated the release of three U.S. soldiers being held in Yugoslavia. President Bill Clinton awarded him the Presidential Medal of Freedom for those efforts a year later.

Jackson’s other successes included winning the release of a U.S. Navy pilot in 1984 from Syrian captors after his plane was shot down, at least 16 Americans held in Cuba in 1984, 700 women and children from Iraq in 1990 and two Gambian Americans from prison in the West African country in 2012.

Continue Reading

News

Video: At Least 2 Killed During High School Hockey Game in Rhode Island

Published

on

Video: At Least 2 Killed During High School Hockey Game in Rhode Island

new video loaded: At Least 2 Killed During High School Hockey Game in Rhode Island

transcript

transcript

At Least 2 Killed During High School Hockey Game in Rhode Island

The shooting occurred at Dennis M. Lynch Arena in Pawtucket, R.I., on Monday. The shooter is dead, the authorities said.

It appears that this was a targeted event, that it may be a family dispute. So we’re trying to put together the story and the timeline of what happened. So because we’re in the initial stages of the investigation, I can’t get into detail, obviously.

Advertisement
The shooting occurred at Dennis M. Lynch Arena in Pawtucket, R.I., on Monday. The shooter is dead, the authorities said.

By Meg Felling

February 16, 2026

Continue Reading

News

The U.S. women’s hockey team is dominating the Olympics. Now they will play for gold

Published

on

The U.S. women’s hockey team is dominating the Olympics. Now they will play for gold

Team USA forward Taylor Heise, #27, celebrates scoring her team’s second goal during Monday’s Olympic semifinal match against Sweden. After a 5-0 win, the U.S. now advances to play in Thursday’s gold medal match.

Alexander Nemenov/AFP via Getty Images


hide caption

toggle caption

Advertisement

Alexander Nemenov/AFP via Getty Images

MILAN — Before Monday night, it might have been uncouth to admit the goal for the U.S. women’s hockey team has been an Olympic gold medal all along.

Now, after their sixth consecutive win has secured them a place in Thursday night’s gold medal match, there is no reason anymore for the team to pretend otherwise.

“Now that we’re here, that’s the bullseye,” said coach John Wroblewski after Monday’s win.

Advertisement

The U.S. entered the 2026 Olympic Games as favorites to win the gold medal after a series of dominating wins over their rivals, Canada, the defending gold medal winners, over the course of the past year.

The Americans have lived up to that promise in this Olympic run so far. They have outscored their opponents 31 goals to 1 through six matches, the last five of which have been shutouts, an Olympic record. And their undefeated record includes a 5-0 win over the Canadians, their likely opponent in Thursday’s final pending the results of a Monday semifinal match-up against Switzerland.

“Our play is only going to go up from here, honestly. I don’t even think we’re at the peak,” said Hayley Scamurra, whose second period goal pushed the score to 5-0.

In the Americans’ semifinal victory over Sweden, Team USA showed off their offensive capabilities during a four-minute stretch at the end of the second period. In quick succession, they doubled the score from 2-0 to 4-0 — first on a perfectly placed wrist shot by Abbey Murphy, followed by an Laila Edwards rocket from the blue line that tipped off Kendall Coyne Schofield’s stick.

In a desperate move to save their shot at a gold medal, Sweden swapped out goaltenders — only for Britta Curl-Salemme to send a pass across the crease into the waiting stick of Scamurra for the final goal of the game.

Advertisement

“Maybe today we needed a plexiglass in front of our net to stay in the game,” Swedish coach Ulf Lundberg said afterward.

That level of offense combined with six dominating performances by the team’s two starting goaltenders, Aerin Frankel and Gwyneth Phillips, has led to a high level of confidence. “We can tell when we’re on a roll. We can tell when we’re buzzing,” said defenseman Cayla Barnes after the game.

“The team is playing so, so well in front of me defensively. They’re making my job easy, making the plays in front of me predictable so I can do my job,” said Frankel, who played the entirety of Monday’s game. “Any time I can focus on my job and let them do theirs, that’s why we’re finding so much success.”

The U.S. has won two previous Olympic gold medals, one in 1998 and the other in 2018. Canada has won all five other Olympic tournaments.

An American gold medal would cap the historic career of team captain Hilary Knight, 36, who is playing in her record fifth Olympic Games. And it would give a new generation of young talent on Team USA — including the 22-year-old Laila Edwards to 23-year-olds Abbey Murphy and Caroline Harvey — their first golden achievement of what USA Hockey hopes will be a long and fruitful national team career together.

Advertisement

“It’s so important that they’ve gotten that time and we’ve given them those opportunities because they’re so confident when they get out there. You would never assume they’re 20, 21, 22 years old,” said Taylor Heise, 25. “I learn so much from them, and they keep me young at heart as well.”

Continue Reading
Advertisement

Trending