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Russian forces have captured three more villages in Ukraine’s north-eastern Kharkiv region, as they press ahead with a new offensive intended to draw Ukrainian forces away from front lines in the east.

Since launching the operation on Friday, Russian troops have occupied about 10 settlements across 100 sq km of territory along Ukraine’s northern border.

Maps compiled by Deepstate, an open-source Ukrainian analysis group, indicated that Russia captured three villages on Sunday, and a battle is under way for control of Hlyboke, a village 40km north of Kharkiv.

The Russian defence ministry said on Monday it had improved its positions in the Kharkiv region and had taken offensive action in four areas — Vovchansk, Neskuchne, Vesele and Lyptsi.

Ukraine’s general staff said Russia was continuing to try to break Ukrainian lines on Monday, that Moscow achieved “partial success” around Lukyantsi and carried out air strikes in and around Vovchansk. It said Kyiv has sent reserves and depending “on how the situation develops, the expansion [of personnel] . . . will continue,” adding that its troops had all the necessary weaponry they needed.

Russia’s operations had previously been focused on the eastern Donetsk region of Ukraine, particularly around the critical stronghold of Chasiv Yar.

But Ukrainian officials believe Russia now wants to draw Ukrainian forces away from the battles in the east, where Kyiv is outgunned and struggling to hold its defensive lines.

Moscow is also looking to exploit its superior resources ahead of the delivery of new military aid to Ukraine from the US, after a hold-up in Congress was resolved and a new aid package passed last month.

Russian forces are advancing much faster in the north than their grinding gains in the east of the country. However, Ukrainian officials and analysts said they had not yet managed a significant breakthrough.

They added that much of the newly occupied area falls within a “grey zone” where neither side previously held positions because its lowland terrain was hard to defend.

Serhiy Kuzan, chair of the Ukrainian Security and Cooperation Center think-tank, said Deepstate’s maps indicated that Russia had not managed to achieve the kind of breakthrough it did a few weeks ago around Ocheretyne, near the city of Avdiivka in Donetsk.

Kuzan added that while Russia did not have enough reserves to take Kharkiv, it had the capacity to continue fighting in the area for at least a month, aiming to get as close to the city as possible and “create pressure there” by shelling it.

A Ukrainian defence forces source told the Financial Times on Monday that Russia would need at least four times as many troops as it currently had for a ground offensive on Kharkiv, and maintained that Moscow’s goal was to stretch Ukraine’s forces.

Analysts have previously estimated that Russia would need to recruit at least 100,000 men if it wanted to take Kharkiv, with the Kremlin reluctant to sign off on another unpopular round of mass mobilisation.

Other than encroaching on Kharkiv, Russia may also be seeking to push Ukrainian forces deeper into the country to get them out of range of the Russian city of Belgorod, just 30km north of the border with Ukraine, which has come under increasing artillery fire in recent months.

The governor of Belgorod region said on Monday that 19 people had been killed as a result of the fighting in the preceding weekend, blaming Ukrainian air and drone strikes.

At least nine people were killed when an explosion blew through part of a 10-storey apartment block on Sunday morning in the centre of the city.

A Ukrainian official confirmed that Ukraine’s SBU internal security services had conducted another drone attack inside Russia, hitting an oil depot in Belgorod and an electricity substation in the Lipetsk region.

“Russian industry, which works for the war against Ukraine, will remain a legitimate target for the SBU. Measures to undermine the enemy’s military potential will continue,” the person said.

On Monday, the Ukrainian army said it had replaced its commander for Kharkiv in an effort to boost its defence of the north-eastern region.

Ukraine’s general staff said there was fighting around settlements in the grey zone south of Pylna and on the outskirts of Vovchansk. It said reserves had been deployed to “stabilise the situation”.

“Our defenders conduct defensive actions [to] inflict damage on the enemy,” it said in a briefing on Monday. “[They are] using unmanned systems for the purpose of conducting reconnaissance and performing pinpoint strikes to achieve maximum losses.”

Vadym Ivaneshchenko, a spokesperson for Ukraine’s 42nd Brigade, which is fighting around Hlyboke, said Russian forces were approaching their positions. He said his unit was “fully equipped”, though more drones and electronic warfare equipment were always needed.

Speaking on Ukraine’s Radio NV, the head of Vovchansk’s local administration, Tamaz Gambarashvili, said it had been “extremely difficult” to build fortifications because the city was often being bombarded by Russian shelling. But Gambarashvili said the construction effort was ongoing.

Cartography and satellite visualisation by Steven Bernard

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Today’s top stories

There has been a dramatic spike in the number of fentanyl-laced counterfeit prescription pills seized by law enforcement, according to a new study published in the International Journal of Drug Policy. The study found that the number of pills seized last year was roughly 2,300 times greater than in 2017. The counterfeit pills look like legit prescription opioid medications — but are often far deadlier. The report highlights the rising threat of cheap and highly potent counterfeit pills, particularly in western states.

This image provided by the Los Angeles County Sheriff’s Department shows suspected fentanyl pills seized at Los Angeles International Airport in 2022.

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This image provided by the Los Angeles County Sheriff’s Department shows suspected fentanyl pills seized at Los Angeles International Airport in 2022.

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Israel has expanded its attacks to central and northern areas of the Gaza Strip. It says it’s trying to prevent Hamas from regrouping there. The attacks are happening as all eyes are on Rafah, where Israel rolled in tanks last week despite pressure from the U.S. and U.N. to halt a planned major ground assault.

• U.S. medical volunteers working at one of the last functioning hospitals in Rafah say they’ve never seen a worse health crisis. 
• NPR’s Lauren Frayer tells Up First that the renewed attacks in central and northern Gaza are happening as Israel commemorates its Memorial Day — one of the most somber days of the year. “This is a country where most people do serve in the military, and it’s also a country that’s been attacked by its neighbors many times since its founding,” she reports from Tel Aviv, where sirens wail and traffic stops as people stand at attention. When memorials end at sundown, Frayer says the mood will shift as the country celebrates its Independence Day. 
• As some Palestinians venture back into parts of Gaza that have been obliterated by months of combat, a new hidden threat emerges: unexploded ordnance. The U.N. says an estimated 7,500 metric tons of live ammunition litter the Gaza Strip. Even if Israel and Hamas agree to a cease-fire, these bombs could continue to kill and maim Palestinians returning to their homes for years.

Richard “Rick” Slayman, the first human to receive a genetically modified pig kidney transplant, has died nearly two months after the procedure. Massachusetts General Hospital said in a statement that there was “no indication” his death was the result of the transplant. Slayman’s surgery was a milestone in the field of xenotransplantation, which involves transplanting organs from one species to another. More than 100,000 people in the U.S. are on the waitlist for organs. Thousands die every year before they can get one.

Picture show

Brunswick, Maine: The northern lights flare in the sky over a farmhouse, late Friday, May 10, 2024.

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Brunswick, Maine: The northern lights flare in the sky over a farmhouse, late Friday, May 10, 2024.

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The largest geomagnetic storm in nearly two decades hit the Earth last week. A sunspot sent a stream of charged particles toward the planet’s atmosphere, resulting in the beautiful aurora seen in different parts of the world. It’s been keeping satellite and power grid operators busy as they work to prevent disruptions. The last time a similar event occurred in 2003, it knocked out power in some parts of Sweden.

See photos of the Northern lights spotted across the Earth, from Ukraine to Minnesota. If you missed them, you might still be able to see them this week.

Today’s listen

Jimmy Chérizier, a former elite police officer known as Barbecue who now runs a gang federation.

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Jimmy Chérizier, a former elite police officer known as Barbecue who now runs a gang federation.

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In March, a coalition of gangs in Haiti toppled the country’s Prime Minister, burning down police stations and shutting down ports and the airport in the process. They now control most of the capital city of Port-au-Prince. Jimmy Cherizier — known as Barbeque — is the gang leader who convinced a bunch of gangs in Haiti to stop fighting each other and start fighting the government. He used to be a police officer who led operations against these gangs. He tells NPR’s Eyder Peralta that the system made him who he is.

Listen to Barbeque talk about how politicians in Haiti created these gangs, how they use the police to do their “dirty work,” and whether he thinks he will survive the Kenyan-led international security force meant to counter gang violence. You can read more about Barbeque here.

3 things to know before you go

Olivia and Liam were the most popular names for girls and boys in 2023, just as they have been in each of the last five years.

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Olivia and Liam were the most popular names for girls and boys in 2023, just as they have been in each of the last five years.

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1. Liam and Olivia remain the most popular baby names in the U.S. for the fifth year in a row. But watch out: One name is rising in popularity and could topple Liam’s domination. 
2. Growing up, Joy Diaz’s family dedicated their lives to humanitarian work. They were renters in Mexico City for many years until one day, a man who used to work with them showed up with a bag of money for them to buy a house. She says this unsung hero changed the trajectory of lives for generations of her family.
3. Barron Trump will not be a delegate at the Republican National Convention. The office of his mother, former first lady Melania Trump, says he has prior obligations.

This newsletter was edited by Majd Al-Waheidi. Anandita Bhalerao contributed.

Methodology

How These Polls Were Conducted

Here are the key things to know about this set of polls from The New York Times, The Philadelphia Inquirer and Siena College:

• We spoke with 4,097 registered voters from April 28 to May 9, 2024.

• Our polls are conducted by telephone, using live interviewers, in both English and Spanish. Nearly 95 percent of respondents were contacted on a cellphone for this poll.

• Voters are selected for the survey from a list of registered voters. The list contains information on the demographic characteristics of every registered voter, allowing us to make sure we reach the right number of voters of each party, race and region. For this set of polls, we placed nearly 500,000 calls to about 410,000 voters.

• To further ensure that the results reflect the entire voting population, not just those willing to take a poll, we give more weight to respondents from demographic groups underrepresented among survey respondents, like people without a college degree. You can see more information about the characteristics of our respondents and the weighted sample at the bottom of the page, under “Composition of the Sample.”

• When the states are joined together, the margin of sampling error among registered voters is plus or minus 1.8 percentage points. Each state poll has a margin of error ranging from plus or minus 3.6 points in Pennsylvania to plus or minus 4.6 points in Georgia. In theory, this means that the results should reflect the views of the overall population most of the time, though many other challenges create additional sources of error. When computing the difference between two values — such as a candidate’s lead in a race — the margin of error is twice as large.

If you want to read more about how and why we conduct our polls, you can see answers to frequently asked questions and submit your own questions here.

Methodology

The New York Times/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena College poll in Pennsylvania and the Times/Siena polls in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan and Nevada were conducted in English and Spanish on cellular and landline telephones from April 28 to May 9, 2024. In all, 4,097 registered voters were interviewed. When all states are joined together, the margin of sampling error is plus or minus 1.8 percentage points for all registered voters and plus or minus 1.9 percentage points for the likely electorate.

The margin of sampling error for each state poll is plus or minus 3.6 percentage points in Pennsylvania, plus or minus 4.2 points in Arizona, plus or minus 4.5 points in Michigan, Nevada and Wisconsin, and plus or minus 4.6 percentage points in Georgia.

The Pennsylvania poll was funded by a grant from the Lenfest Institute for Journalism. The poll, which was designed and conducted independently from the institute, includes a deep look at voters in the Philadelphia suburbs using a statistical technique called an oversample. The results are weighted so that in the end, the poll properly reflects the attributes of the entire state and is not biased toward those voters.

Sample

The survey is a response-rate-adjusted stratified sample of registered voters on the L2 voter file. The sample was selected by The New York Times in multiple steps to account for the oversample of the Philadelphia suburbs, differential telephone coverage, nonresponse and significant variation in the productivity of telephone numbers by state.

The L2 voter file for each state was stratified by statehouse district, party, race, gender, marital status, household size, turnout history, age and homeownership. The proportion of registrants with a telephone number and the mean expected response rate, based on prior Times/Siena polls, were calculated for each stratum. The initial selection weight was equal to the reciprocal of a stratum’s mean telephone coverage and modeled response rate. For respondents with multiple telephone numbers on the L2 file, the number with the highest modeled response rate was selected.

Fielding

The samples for each state were stratified by party, race and region and fielded by the Siena College Research Institute, with additional field work by ReconMR, the Public Opinion Research Lab at the University of North Florida, the Institute for Policy and Opinion Research at Roanoke College, and the Center for Public Opinion and Policy Research at Winthrop University in South Carolina. Interviewers asked for the person named on the voter file and ended the interview if the intended respondent was not available. Overall, 94 percent of respondents were reached on a cellular telephone.

The instrument was translated into Spanish by ReconMR, and Spanish-speaking interviewers were assigned to the modeled Hispanic sample. Bilingual interviewers began the interview in English and were instructed to follow the lead of the respondent in determining whether to conduct the survey in English or Spanish. Monolingual Spanish-speaking respondents who were initially contacted by English-speaking interviewers were recontacted by Spanish-speaking interviewers. Overall, 19 percent of interviews among self-reported Hispanics were conducted in Spanish, including 21 percent in Nevada and 17 percent in Arizona.

An interview was determined to be complete for the purposes of inclusion in the ballot test questions if the respondent did not drop out of the survey by the end of the two self-reported variables used in weighting — age and education — and answered at least one of the age, education, race or presidential election ballot test questions.

Weighting — registered voters

The survey was weighted by The Times using the R survey package in multiple steps.

First, the samples were adjusted for unequal probability of selection by stratum.

Second, the five state samples and the samples of the the Philadelphia suburbs and the rest of Pennsylvania were weighted separately to match voter-file-based parameters for the characteristics of registered voters by state.

The following targets were used:

• Party (party registration if available, else classification based on a model of vote choice in prior Times/Siena polls) by modeled L2 race (except Wisconsin)

• Age by gender (self-reported age, or voter file age if the respondent refuses)

• Race or ethnicity (L2 model)

• Education (four categories of self-reported education, weighted to match NYT-based targets derived from Times/Siena polls, census data and the L2 voter file)

• White/nonwhite by education (L2 model of race by self-reported education, weighted to match NYT-based targets derived from Times/Siena polls, census data and the L2 voter file)

• Marital status (L2 model)

• Homeownership (L2 model)

• State regions (NYT classifications by county or city)

• Turnout history (NYT classifications based on L2 data)

• Vote method in the 2020 elections (NYT classifications based on L2 data)

• History of voting in the 2020 presidential primary (Pennsylvania and Wisconsin only, NYT classifications based on L2 data)

• Census block group density (Arizona only, based on American Community Survey five-year census block-group data)

• Census tract educational attainment

In Pennsylvania, the samples from the Philadelphia suburbs and the rest of the state were combined and adjusted to account for the oversample of the Philadelphia suburbs.

Finally, the six state samples were balanced to each represent one-sixth of the sum of the weights.

The sample of respondents who completed all questions in the survey was weighted identically, as well as to the result for the general election horse race question (including leaners) on the full sample.

Weighting — likely electorate

The survey was weighted by The Times using the R survey package in multiple steps.

First, the samples were adjusted for unequal probability of selection by stratum.

Second, the first-stage weight was adjusted to account for the probability that a registrant would vote in the 2024 election, based on a model of turnout in the 2020 election.

Third, the five state samples and the samples of the Philadelphia suburbs and the rest of Pennsylvania were weighted separately to match targets for the composition of the likely electorate. The targets for the composition of the likely electorate were derived by aggregating the individual-level turnout estimates described in the previous step for registrants on the L2 voter file. The categories used in weighting were the same as those previously mentioned for registered voters.

In Pennsylvania, the samples from the Philadelphia suburbs and the rest of the state were combined and adjusted to account for the oversample of the Philadelphia suburbs.

Fourth, the initial likely electorate weight was adjusted to incorporate self-reported vote intention. The final probability that a registrant would vote in the 2024 election was four-fifths based on their ex ante modeled turnout score and one-fifth based on their self-reported intention, based on prior Times/Siena polls, including a penalty to account for the tendency of survey respondents to turn out at higher rates than nonrespondents. The final likely electorate weight was equal to the modeled electorate rake weight, multiplied by the final turnout probability and divided by the ex ante modeled turnout probability.

Finally, the six state samples were balanced to each represent one-sixth of the sum of the weights.

The sample of respondents who completed all questions in the survey was weighted identically, as well as to the result for the general election horse race question (including leaners) on the full sample.

The margin of error accounts for the survey’s design effect, a measure of the loss of statistical power due to survey design and weighting. The design effect for the full sample is 1.33 for registered voters and 1.5 for the likely electorate. The design effect for the sample of completed interviews is 1.38 for registered voters and 1.53 for the likely electorate.

Historically, The Times/Siena Poll’s error at the 95th percentile has been plus or minus 5.1 percentage points in surveys taken over the final three weeks before an election. Real-world error includes sources of error beyond sampling error, such as nonresponse bias, coverage error, late shifts among undecided voters and error in estimating the composition of the electorate.