Nevada
Nevada shows biggest lead for Trump over Biden – 13 points – in new poll of swing states
Could the third time be the charm for Donald Trump in Nevada?
It certainly looks like a possibility based on a new poll by the New York Times, Siena College and the Philadelphia Inquirer.
Trump lost in 2016 by 2.4 percentage points to Hillary Clinton and in 2020 by about the same difference to Joe Biden.
But the new poll of six swing states shows that among likely voters surveyed in Nevada, former President Trump leads President Joe Biden by 13 percentage points: 51% to 38%.
That difference may hinge on favorability.
Those with a “net unfavorable” view of Biden – somewhat or very unfavorable – is 64%. It rises to 70% net unfavorable among Nevada’s large nonpartisan population.
Regarding Trump, Nevada registered voters have a 49% net unfavorable view, according to those who responded to the poll. Fifty-four percent of registered nonpartisan have a net unfavorable view – 16 percentage points lower than for Biden.
If Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and other third-party candidates are added to the mix, the difference stays approximately the same: Trump 14 points ahead of Biden if the vote were held today.
RFK Jr. would get 12% of Nevada’s votes, according to the survey.
As for whether he helps or harms one of the major party candidates, it doesn’t appear obvious: 10% of registered Republicans, 10% of Democrats and 15% of independents said they’d vote for RFK Jr.
Other poll findings – race/ethnicity, Rosen v. Brown
The poll shows Trump with a 9 percentage point lead in Nevada among registered Hispanic voters and a 6-point lead among “other” racial or ethnic minorities.
When Nevada voters were asked if they would support Democrat Jacky Rosen or Republican Sam Brown for U.S. Senate, Rosen holds a 2 percentage point advantage: 40% to 38%, which amounts to a toss-up based on the margin of error.
The Senate race shows a lot of room for movement, as about 23% of respondents said they didn’t know which one they’d pick or they refused to answer.
Trump leading in most other swing states
Among all the swing states surveyed, Trump has a 6 percentage point lead with a margin of error of 1.9 points for the overall survey.
Trump has an advantage in all but one of the other swing states surveyed.
- Arizona: Trump ahead by 6 percentage points among likely voters
- Georgia: Trump ahead by 9
- Michigan: Biden ahead by 1
- Pennsylvania: Trump ahead by 3
- Wisconsin: Trump ahead by 1
The margin of error in Nevada’s results is reported as 4.5 percentage points.
The polls were conducted from April 28 to May 9, and 21% of the surveys of Nevada Hispanic voters were conducted in Spanish.
How this poll compares to others
An Emerson College/The Hill poll released April 30 showed the presidential race much tighter in Nevada, with Trump having a 1-point lead over Biden.
A Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll, also in April, showed Trump up by 8 percent points in Nevada while one in March by the Wall Street Journal had Trump ahead by 4.
However, the latest results track with another New York Times/Siena College poll about six months ago that showed Trump with a 12-point lead over Biden.
Mark Robison is the state politics reporter for the Reno Gazette Journal, with occasional forays into other topics. Email comments to mrobison@rgj.com or comment on Mark’s Greater Reno Facebook page.
California Gov. Gavin Newsom won’t admit it, but a move by President Donald Trump is especially helpful to drivers in California — and Nevada.
Gasoline prices are pressuring consumers around the country. On Friday, the average U.S. price was $4.55 a gallon. In California, that would be a bargain. The average there was $6.16 a gallon. Nevada’s average was $5.23 a gallon, the result of around 88 percent of the state’s gasoline coming from California.
It might be getting worse — regardless of what happens in Iran.
In recent months, two major California refineries have shut down. That represented a 17 percent reduction in California’s refining capacity. Their closures weren’t caused by the Iran war, but by Gov. Newsom and California’s relentless attacks on fossil fuels.
To make up for the fuel it won’t extract or refine in-state, California depends on imports from foreign countries.
“We are importing 30 percent of our crude oil from the Middle East,” Mike Ariza, a former control board supervisor at the Valero Benicia Refinery, said in an interview. He has been warning the public about California’s potential fuel shortage. “There are not very many ships left on the way that have fuel,” he said last month.
Last week, KCRA-TV in Sacramento reported that “about 2 million barrels of oil are in the process of being unloaded in Long Beach off of the last California-bound tanker that got through the Strait of Hormuz.”
At a California legislative hearing Tuesday, Siva Gunda, the vice chairman of the California Energy Commission, said the state has enough gasoline to accommodate demand for the next six weeks. That’s not a very long time, especially given that it takes weeks or months for oil to travel from the Middle East to California. And that process won’t begin until the Strait of Hormuz reopens.
There is a region, however, with abundant oil available for sale and safe passage — the southeastern United States. Unfortunately, the Jones Act, an antiquated 1920 law, mandates that only U.S.-flagged ships may move cargo between U.S. ports. But only 55 of the more than 7,000 oil tankers worldwide comply with this requirement.
This is where Mr. Trump rode to the rescue. Late last month, the White House announced Mr. Trump would suspend the Jones Act for another 90 days. In March, he originally waived it for 60 days. This will make it easier for California and Nevada to obtain domestic product.
If only Mr. Trump could also suspend the destructive energy policies imposed by Gov. Newsom and California Democrats.
LAS VEGAS (KSNV) — An adoptable pet is in the spotlight for “Furever Home Friday,” with Amy from the Nevada SPCA featured in a segment highlighting an animal available for adoption today.
The Nevada SPCA encouraged viewers looking to add a pet to their family to consider adopting.
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